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Analyzing and Predicting Effort Associated with Finding and Fixing Software Faults

Context: Software developers spend a significant amount of time fixing faults. However, not many papers have addressed the actual effort needed to fix software faults. Objective: The objective of this paper is twofold: (1) analysis of the effort needed to fix software faults and how it was affected by several factors and (2) prediction of the level of fix implementation effort based on the information provided in software change requests. Method: The work is based on data related to 1200 failures, extracted from the change tracking system of a large NASA mission. The analysis includes descriptive and inferential statistics. Predictions are made using three supervised machine learning algorithms and three sampling techniques aimed at addressing the imbalanced data problem. Results: Our results show that (1) 83% of the total fix implementation effort was associated with only 20% of failures. (2) Both safety critical failures and post-release failures required three times more effort to fix compared to non-critical and pre-release counterparts, respectively. (3) Failures with fixes spread across multiple components or across multiple types of software artifacts required more effort. The spread across artifacts was more costly than spread across components. (4) Surprisingly, some types of faults associated with later life-cycle activities did not require significant effort. (5) The level of fix implementation effort was predicted with 73% overall accuracy using the original, imbalanced data. Using oversampling techniques improved the overall accuracy up to 77%. More importantly, oversampling significantly improved the prediction of the high level effort, from 31% to around 85%. Conclusions: This paper shows the importance of tying software failures to changes made to fix all associated faults, in one or more software components and/or in one or more software artifacts, and the benefit of studying how the spread of faults and other factors affect the fix implementation effort.

software fix implementation effort

Feature Acquisition with Imbalanced Training Data

This work considers cost-sensitive feature acquisition that attempts to classify a candidate datapoint from incomplete information. In this task, an agent acquires features of the datapoint using one or more costly diagnostic tests, and eventually ascribes a classification label. A cost function describes both the penalties for feature acquisition, as well as misclassification errors. A common solution is a Cost Sensitive Decision Tree (CSDT), a branching sequence of tests with features acquired at interior decision points and class assignment at the leaves. CSDT's can incorporate a wide range of diagnostic tests and can reflect arbitrary cost structures. They are particularly useful for online applications due to their low computational overhead. In this innovation, CSDT's are applied to cost-sensitive feature acquisition where the goal is to recognize very rare or unique phenomena in real time. Example applications from this domain include four areas. In stream processing, one seeks unique events in a real time data stream that is too large to store. In fault protection, a system must adapt quickly to react to anticipated errors by triggering repair activities or follow- up diagnostics. With real-time sensor networks, one seeks to classify unique, new events as they occur. With observational sciences, a new generation of instrumentation seeks unique events through online analysis of large observational datasets. This work presents a solution based on transfer learning principles that permits principled CSDT learning while exploiting any prior knowledge of the designer to correct both between-class and withinclass imbalance. Training examples are adaptively reweighted based on a decomposition of the data attributes. The result is a new, nonparametric representation that matches the anticipated attribute distribution for the target events.

Thompson, David R.

NASA Tech Briefs, March 2011

Topics covered include: Optimal Tuner Selection for Kalman-Filter-Based Aircraft Engine Performance Estimation; Airborne Radar Interferometric Repeat-Pass Processing; Plug-and-Play Environmental Monitoring Spacecraft Subsystem; Power-Combined GaN Amplifier with 2.28-W Output Power at 87 GHz; Wallops Ship Surveillance System; Source Lines Counter (SLiC) Version 4.0; Guidance, Navigation, and Control Program; Single-Frame Terrain Mapping Software for Robotic Vehicles; Auto Draw from Excel Input Files; Observation Scheduling System; CFDP for Interplanetary Overlay Network; X-Windows Widget for Image Display; Binary-Signal Recovery; Volumetric 3D Display System with Static Screen; MMIC Replacement for Gunn Diode Oscillators; Feature Acquisition with Imbalanced Training Data; Mount Protects Thin-Walled Glass or Ceramic Tubes from Large Thermal and Vibration Loads; Carbon Nanotube-Based Structural Health Monitoring Sensors; Wireless Inductive Power Device Suppresses Blade Vibrations; Safe, Advanced, Adaptable Isolation System Eliminates the Need for Critical Lifts; Anti-Rotation Device Releasable by Insertion of a Tool; A Magnetically Coupled Cryogenic Pump; Single Piezo-Actuator Rotary-Hammering Drill; Fire-Retardant Polymeric Additives; Catalytic Generation of Lift Gases for Balloons; Ionic Liquids to Replace Hydrazine; Variable Emittance Electrochromics Using Ionic Electrolytes and Low Solar Absorptance Coatings; Spacecraft Radiator Freeze Protection Using a Regenerative Heat Exchanger; Multi-Mission Power Analysis Tool; Correction for Self-Heating When Using Thermometers as Heaters in Precision Control Applications; Gravitational Wave Detection with Single-Laser Atom Interferometers; Titanium Alloy Strong Back for IXO Mirror Segments; Improved Ambient Pressure Pyroelectric Ion Source; Multi-Modal Image Registration and Matching for Localization of a Balloon on Titan; Entanglement in Quantum-Classical Hybrid; Algorithm for Autonomous Landing; Quantum-Classical Hybrid for Information Processing; Small-Scale Dissipation in Binary-Species Transitional Mixing Layers; Superpixel-Augmented Endmember Detection for Hyperspectral Images; Coding for Parallel Links to Maximize the Expected Value of Decodable Messages; and Microwave Tissue Soldering for Immediate Wound Closure.

Source record

Imbalanced Learning for Functional State Assessment

This paper presents results of several imbalanced learning techniques applied to operator functional state assessment where the data is highly imbalanced, i.e., some function states (majority classes) have much more training samples than other states (minority classes). Conventional machine learning techniques usually tend to classify all data samples into majority classes and perform poorly for minority classes. In this study, we implemented five imbalanced learning techniques, including random undersampling, random over-sampling, synthetic minority over-sampling technique (SMOTE), borderline-SMOTE and adaptive synthetic sampling (ADASYN) to solve this problem. Experimental results on a benchmark driving lest dataset show thai accuracies for minority classes could be improved dramatically with a cost of slight performance degradations for majority classes,

Li, Feng

Imbalanced Multi-layer Cloud Classification with Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) and CloudSat/CALIPSO Data

Clouds at different altitudes play different roles in Earth’s climate. Comprehensive understanding of overlapping clouds is important for climate and weather prediction. The East Pacific region is where El Ni˜no and La Ni˜na originate and where multi-layer clouds frequently occur. The overlap of clouds at different altitudes in this region increases the classification complexity for cloud-based climatological studies. Unlike prior work in cloud layer classification that assumes single layer or two-layer of clouds, in this work, we consider multi-layer cloud classification with 8 cloud-level classes (clear-sky, high, middle, low, high+middle, high+low, middle+low, high+middle+low). We develop and analyze machine learning models on features extracted from satellite images from the East Pacific regions collected by GOES Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI). These are used to classify CloudSat/CALIPSO observed multi-layer clouds. Due to the imbalanced nature of the data, we investigate the adoption of conventional resampling methods, as well as deep learning methods with data augmentation. In our experiments, we utilize the random forest classifier and Multilayer perceptron classifier with data augmentation methods to reduce the class imbalance during training. With these approaches, we achieve a classification accuracy of 83.6% without exploiting any ancillary information.

machine learning

Zoledronate Prevents Simulated Weightlessness-Induced Bone Loss in the Cancellous Compartment While Blunting the Efficacy of a Mechanical Loading Countermeasure

Astronauts using high-force resistance training while weightless show a high-turnover remodeling state within the skeletal system, with resorption and formation biomarkers being elevated. One countermeasure for the skeletal health of astronauts includes an antiresorptive of the bisphosphonate (BP) drug class. We asked, does the combination of an anti-resorptive and high-force exercise during weightlessness have negative effects on bone remodeling and strength? In this study, we developed an integrated model to mimic the mechanical strain of exercise via cyclical loading (CL) in mice treated with the BP Zoledronate (ZOL) combined with hind limb unloading (HU) to simulate weightlessness. We hypothesized that ZOL prevents structural degradation from simulated weightlessness and that CL and ZOL interact to render CL less effective. Thirty-two C57BL/6 mice (male, 16 weeks old, n=8/group) were exposed to 3 weeks of either HU or normal ambulation (NA). Cohorts of mice received one subcutaneous injection of ZOL (45μg/kg), or saline vehicle (VEH), prior to the start of HU. The right tibia was axially compressed in vivo 60x/day to 9N (+1200μstrain on the periosteal surface) and repeated 3x/week during HU. Left tibiae served as a within subject, non-compressed control. Ex vivo μCT was performed on all subjects to determine cancellous and cortical architectural parameters. Static and dynamic histomorphometry were carried out for the left and right tibiae to determine osteoclast- and osteoblast relevant surfaces. Further, micro damage was assessed in select groups by basic-fuchsin staining to test whether CL had an effect. For all assays, a multivariate (2x2x2) ANCOVA model was used to account for body weight changes. Additionally, for the tibiae, we incorporated a random effect for the subject (hence, a mixed model) to account for observations of both left and right tibiae within each subject. P < 0.05 was considered significant. In the cancellous compartment of the proximal tibial metaphysis, we observed a main effect from each independent variable, as determined by structural and histomorphometric assays. Specifically, as expected, ZOL showed an increase in the cancellous bone volume to total volume fraction (BV/TV, +32%) and trabecular number (+18%) compared to the VEH. As expected, ZOL decreased osteoclast surface (OC/BS) by -45% compared to VEH. Surprisingly, ZOL reduced mineralizing surface (MS/BS) and bone formation rate (BFR), indicators of osteoblast activity, by -40% and -54%, respectively, compared to VEH. Altogether, ZOL-treated mice displayed a low turnover state of remodeling in the metaphysis. In the context of skeletal aging, we speculate that ZOL prevented age-related cancellous strut loss during the experiment. As a main effect, as expected, HU decreased BV/TV by - 31% via reductions in both trabecular thickness (-11%) and number (-22%) compared to NA controls. Additionally, HU decreased MS/BS by -38% and bone formation rate (BFR) by -50% compared to NA controls. Altogether, these data are consistent with structural degradation resulting from imbalanced remodeling that favors resorption. As a main effect, CL increased BV/TV by +15% via increased trabecular thickness (+12%) compared to the noncompressed limb. As expected, CL increased MS/BS (+20%) and BFR (+24%), indicating osteoblast mineralization contributed to bone gains. These data show that CL provided an anabolic stimulus to the cancellous tissue. We observed unique interactions in ZOL*CL and HU*CL. First, ZOL prevented CL-induced increases in BV/TV and trabecular number, as compared to VEH. In the context of skeletal aging, these data suggest no added benefit from CL in the ZOL-treated mice. Interestingly, no microdamage was observed in mice that were unloaded and treated with ZOL (independent of CL). Secondly, HU prevented CL-induced increases in BFR, as compared to NA controls. These data suggest that either exercise is less effective or the kinetics of formation are slower during simulated weightlessness. Osteoclast surface was unchanged by either treatment. Thus, in contrast to exercising astronauts, these data do not suggest a high-turnover state in the metaphysis. To assess mechanical properties as a function of HU or ZOL, we tested the left femur in three-point bending ex vivo. As expected, HU decreased stiffness (-30%) compared to NA, and ZOL increased stiffness compared to VEH (+28%). Interestingly, HU increased the post-yield displacement, related to collagenous tensile loading, compared to NA (+20%). ZOL increased yield force (+11%) and ultimate force (+17%), which seems to explain the significant effect of ZOL increasing total energy (work-to-fracture, +15%), while not affecting the post yield displacement. Taken together, ZOL did not have detrimental affect on mechanical properties. Our integrated model simulates the combination of weightlessness, exercise-induced mechanical strain, and anti-resorptive treatment that astronauts experience during space missions. We conclude that Zoledronate was an effective countermeasure against weightlessness-induced bone loss, though zoledronate, as well as weightlessness, rendered exercise-related mechanical loading less effective.

bone

Fibroblast Growth Factor-23 in Bed Rest and Spaceflight

Many nutritional factors influence bone, from the basics of calcium and vitamin D, to factors which influence bone through acid/base balance, including protein, sodium, and more. Fibroblast growth factor 23 (FGF23) is a recently identified factor, secreted from osteocytes, which is involved in classic (albeit complex) feedback loops controlling phosphorus homeostasis through both vitamin D and parathyroid hormone (PTH) (1, 2). As osteocytes are gravity sensing cells, it is important to determine if there are changes in FGF23 during spaceflight. In extreme cases, such as chronic kidney disease, FGF23 levels are highly elevated. FGF23 imbalances, secondary to dietary influences, may contribute to skeletal demineralization and kidney stone risk during spaceflight. Presented with an imbalanced dietary phosphorus to calcium ratio, increased secretion of FGF23 will inhibit renal phosphorus reabsorption, resulting in increased excretion and reduced circulating phosphorus. Increased intake and excretion of phosphorus is associated with increased kidney stone risk in both the terrestrial and microgravity environments. Highly processed foods and carbonated beverages are associated with higher phosphorus content. Ideally, the dietary calcium to phosphorus ratio should be at minimum 1:1. Nutritional requirements for spaceflight suggest that this ratio not be less than 0.67 (3), while the International Space Station (ISS) menu provides 1020 mg Ca and 1856 mg P, for a ratio of 0.55 (3). Subjects in NASA's bed rest studies, by design, have consumed intake ratios much closer to 1.0 (4). FGF23 also has an inhibitory influence on PTH secretion and 1(alpha)-hydroxylase, both of which are required for activating vitamin D with the conversion of 25-hydroxyvitamin D to 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D. Decreased 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D will result in decreased intestinal phosphorus absorption, and increased urinary phosphorus excretion (via decreased renal reabsorption). Should a decrease in 1,25- dihydroxyvitamin D be necessary to reduce intestinal phosphorus absorption, calcium absorption will also proportionally be reduced, potentially leading to skeletal demineralization. Demineralization of bone can increase kidney stone risk, a medical issue that could prove detrimental to mission success. Given the interrelationships described above, we sought to determine circulating FGF23 concentrations in spaceflight and ground analog studies to better understand the potential effects of dietary phosphorus on bone and calcium metabolism. We analyzed serum from ISS astronauts participating in studies of bone biochemistry, including the Nutrition SMO and Pro K experiments, and we also evaluated FGF23 during extended-duration bed rest. Serum intact FGF23 levels were determined using an ELISA kit from Kainos laboratories in Japan. While initial evaluation of the data showed no changes over time during flight or bed rest, evaluation continues of FGF23 data in light of dietary factors, PTH, vitamin D status, and other biochemical and endocrine factors.

Bokhari, R.