The Forest Conservation Evaluation Tool: Accessible impact evaluation for Latin America
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Allen Blackman↗
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Social impact evaluation : Some implications of the specific decisional context approach for anticipatory project assessment with special reference to available alternatives and to techniques of evaluating the social impacts of the anticipated effects of such alternatives
The implications are explored of the specific decision context approach to anticipatory project assessment. More specifically, it is hypothesized that with respect to any given effect of a proposed project or action (mobility, job opportunities, air pollution, population distribution, etc.) such effect will likely differ in probability and/or magnitude from one decisional context to another; that the social desirability or undesirability of a given effect is a function (will differ with) each specific decisional context; that therefore the social impact of such effect will in all likelihood differ with each specific decisional context; and that the social significance of even the dame social impact of a given effect will vary from one decisional context to another when such social impact interacts with (competes with or reinforces) the social impacts of other effects. It also follows from this analysis that the respective roles of scientific method (demonstrable data) and adversarial system will not only differ with each specific decisional context but with each alternative course of action available to the decisional entity in each specific context.
Mayo, L. H.↗
Towards Learning-Based Architectures for Sensor Impact Evaluation in Building Controls
Advanced control algorithms for building systems are known to have significant potential in reducing energy consumption while optimizing thermal comfort. The success of such algorithms is critically contingent on several different types of sensor systems, which are in turn, used for continuous monitoring, identification and estimation of several important building states, such as temperatures, humidity, air quality, power consumption and occupancy status. Nonidealities in any of these sensors can lead to significant performance degradation of the control functionalities, and may lead to unwanted sub-optimal building operation. In this paper, we provide a simulation example with a high-fidelity building model, for a particular use-case of advanced optimization-based control in buildings, i.e., occupancy-based controls. We show how imperfections in occupancy sensing can offset performance. Subsequently, we discuss a novel learning-based architecture to efficiently evaluate the impact of sensor nonidealities for building systems, in context of advanced control algorithms.
Bhattacharya, Saptarshi↗
Sensor Impact Evaluation and Verification Technical Advisory Group Meeting Minutes
This report provides the technical advisory group meeting minutes and summary of detailed discussions for future development of sensor impact evaluations and verifications. Methods for sensor configuration/deployment have critical impacts on energy-efficient building control and thermal comfort. However, traditional sensor techniques for building operation and fault detection and diagnostics (FDD) are not optimal in terms of energy efficiency and thermal comfort, and their global effects are not thoroughly investigated. In an effort to address and overcome this limitation, a 3 year project, Sensor Impact Evaluation and Verification, was proposed. The multi-laboratory team—the US Department of Energy’s Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL)—is conducting early-stage R&D to provide technical supports and guidelines for sensor design in building/HVAC systems to optimize building energy use, FDD, thermal comfort, and grid efficiency. The overall goal of this project is to develop a framework that enables quantitative evaluation of the impact of sensors on building HVAC control, FDD, and consequently, building energy efficiency and thermal comfort.
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
Sensor Impact Evaluation at Different Sensor Locations in a Multi-zone Office Building
FY 2022 Q1 deliverables include the development of an emulator that can evaluate the sensor impacts at different sensor locations (i.e., thermostat locations) in a multizone office building. This report presents the detailed procedure of developing the emulator and using the emulator for preliminary sensor impact analysis. In designing new multizone buildings or retrofitting existing buildings, the room thermostat locations or subzoning design has been often determined by best practices without considering the effects of this design in terms of energy or thermal comfort. In subzoning design, the total number of thermostats is usually smaller than the total number of rooms. As a result, one thermostat in one room often controls the indoor temperature of several other adjacent rooms. For example, five zones might share one thermostat located in one of the zones. Because the demands for thermal load in different zones could be different for the multizone buildings, this subzoning design can compromise control performance and waste building energy consumption. Furthermore, for multizone buildings, subzoning could introduce thermal discomfort for zones. This issue has not be thoroughly investigated in simulation/field studies, and the US Department of Energy’s Oak Ridge National Laboratory explored the impacts of subzoning design through modeling and experimental study.
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
Exploring Microsimulation Process for Energy Impact Evaluation of Connected and Automated Vehicles
In this paper, the authors present a microsimulation-based methodological approach for evaluating the energy impact of connected and automated vehicles (CAVs). They use an open-source micro-simulator, SUMO, and provide a way to set up a simulation environment that emulates real-world traffic dynamics. They also employ the Intelligent Driver Model to represent human drivers and calibrate its driving behavior using real-world traffic data and driving statistics. The authors conduct extensive simulation studies considering different penetration rates of CAVs, different car-following models, and varying car-following model parameters. Using the state-of-the-art Future Automotive System Technology Simulator (FASTSim), they estimate the fuel economy of each vehicle and analyze the energy impact of the given CAV implementation. Finally, the authors analyze the possible factors affecting the simulation results, and also discuss limitations and future work.
ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
Vadose Zone Flow and Transport Parameters Data Package for the Hanford Site Composite Analysis and Cumulative Impact Evaluation
This report provides a description of the basis for the development and implementation of a conceptual model for vadose zone flow and transport for the composite analysis (CA) groundwater pathway analysis and the cumulative impact evaluation (CIE). The parameterization for a numerical model is intimately linked to the conceptual model framework. The report describes the basis for the selection of hydraulic and transport parameters for the hydrostratigraphic units (HSUs) identified in the 200 East and 200 West Areas. Whenever data are sparse or unavailable, surrogate hydraulic properties are chosen based on samples collected within the 200 Areas and nearby locations that are representative of sediments characteristic of the HSUs identified elsewhere.
12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
Development of a simplified calibrated building simulation model of a supermarket for proposed ECMs and control strategies impact evaluation
Calibrated building energy simulation is an important pathway to more energy-efficient buildings, but the information requirements of some approaches to this problem are significant. This is particularly true for supermarkets and other so-called “big-box” retail stores. Another characteristic of supermarkets is the significant interaction between Heating Ventilating and Air Conditioning (HVAC) and refrigeration systems in these buildings. These buildings could contain a wide variety of systems and a degree of load diversity that makes calibrated modeling a challenge. This paper describes a simplified approach that uses OpenStudio and EnergyPlus to combine known building parameters with “typical” parameters, resulting in a simplified building that is amenable to calibration. This approach was applied to a big-box store located in Nashville, Tennessee, and a calibrated model was obtained that was used to study potential energy conservation measures. Further, the paper also explores the capabilities of whole-building energy modeling tools, such as EnergyPlus, for modeling the HVAC controls and sequences and their impact evaluation. Although some measures are precluded by the model simplicity, several measures were found to improve the efficiency of the model and demonstrate that the simplified modeling approach is effective. Practical Application: This paper introduces a hybrid approach of building energy model calibration using limited information available from the actual building in combination with characteristics of a “typical” building of the same type. This hybrid approach would also be applicable for other building types than discussed in this paper to calibrate the building energy model using limited information from the actual building.
42 ENGINEERING↗
A Multi-Criteria Impact Evaluation Methodology Applied to FLEX Strategies in Nuclear Power Plants
As responses to Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear accident, several advanced, near-term technologies have been or are being introduced to enhance safety of operating nuclear power plants (NPPs) as well as improving their sustainability. Examples include Accident-Tolerant Fuel designs, Diverse and Flexible Coping Strategies (FLEX), and passive cooling system designs. The combinations of these technologies, coupled with enhancements to plant components and systems and improved fuel cycle efficiency, constitute a concept of Enhanced Resilient Plant Systems, which is proposed and being explored by Idaho National Laboratory (INL) under the Risk-Informed Systems Analysis Pathway of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program. To decide if introducing a technology is necessary or worthy, the impacts of this technology on NPPs should be evaluated, preferably in a quantitative manner, and provided to decision makers. This paper summarizes an on-going work conducted by the authors on developing a multi-criteria impact evaluation methodology. This methodology is expected to be applicable to evaluate a variety of technologies, while FLEX strategy is adopted as a case study for this paper.
99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
Hypervelocity Impact Evaluation of Metal Foam Core Sandwich Structures
A series of hypervelocity impact (HVI) tests were conducted by the NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) Hypervelocity Impact Technology Facility (HITF) [1], building 267 (Houston, Texas) between January 2003 and December 2005 to test the HVI performance of metal foams, as compared to the metal honeycomb panels currently in service. The HITF testing was conducted at the NASA JSC White Sands Testing Facility (WSTF) at Las Cruces, New Mexico. Eric L. Christiansen, Ph.D., and NASA Lead for Micro-Meteoroid Orbital Debris (MMOD) Protection requested these hypervelocity impact tests as part of shielding research conducted for the JSC Center Director Discretionary Fund (CDDF) project. The structure tested is a metal foam sandwich structure; a metal foam core between two metal facesheets. Aluminum and Titanium metals were tested for foam sandwich and honeycomb sandwich structures. Aluminum honeycomb core material is currently used in Orbiter Vehicle (OV) radiator panels and in other places in space structures. It has many desirable characteristics and performs well by many measures, especially when normalized by density. Aluminum honeycomb does not perform well in Hypervelocity Impact (HVI) Testing. This is a concern, as honeycomb panels are often exposed to space environments, and take on the role of Micrometeoroid / Orbital Debris (MMOD) shielding. Therefore, information on possible replacement core materials which perform adequately in all necessary functions of the material would be useful. In this report, HVI data is gathered for these two core materials in certain configurations and compared to gain understanding of the metal foam HVI performance.
Yasensky, John↗
Social impact evaluation: Some implications of the specific decisional context approach for Anticipatory Project Assessment (ARA)
An anticipatory project assessment is discussed which is characterized as the capacity to perform, and the disposition to take into account in relevant decisional areas, the following operations: identification of the significant effects which will result from the introduction of a specified project configuration into alternative projected future social environments during the planning, implementation, and operational states; evaluation of such effects in terms of social impacts on affected participants and social value-institutional processes in accord with specified concepts of social justice.
Mayo, L. H.↗
Evaluating Impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act and Bipartisan Infrastructure Law on the U.S. Power System
The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA) and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act of 2021, commonly referred to as the 'Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL),' collectively represent the largest commitment of the U.S. Federal Government to invest in the modernization and decarbonization of the U.S. energy system. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that total support for the broad range of climate and clean energy programs, tax credits, and other incentives authorized through the two laws will exceed $430 billion from 2022 through 2031 (CRS 2022; CBO 2021, 2022). While the climate and clean energy provisions are numerous and have the potential to impact all aspects of the U.S. energy system from fuel and electricity production to final consumption in industry, transportation, and buildings, the provisions relevant to the electricity sector - in particular the suite of tax credits for clean generation, storage, and carbon dioxide ( CO 2 ) capture and storage - are expected to be some of the most consequential in terms of emissions reduction and clean energy deployment (Larsen et al. 2022; Jenkins, Mayfield, et al. 2022; Mahajan et al. 2022; Zhao et al. 2022). In this report, we detail the methods and results of a study estimating the potential impacts of key provisions of IRA and BIL on the contiguous U.S. power sector from present day through 2030. The analysis employs an advanced power system planning model, the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS), to evaluate how major provisions from both laws impact investment in and operation of utility-scale generation, storage, and transmission, and, in turn, how those changes impact power system costs, emissions, and climate and health damages. While not exhaustive in capturing every provision, the analysis estimates the possible scale of power-sector impacts that could result from the modeled provisions in IRA and BIL. The study is structured around two scenarios to evaluate the potential impacts of both laws on the power sector: 1) No New Policy: A counter-factual scenario that reflects all Federal and state policies enacted as of September 2022, with exception to IRA and BIL, and assumes load growth consistent with the Energy Information Administration's Annual Energy Outlook 2022 (AEO22) Reference case (EIA 2022a); 2) IRA-BIL: A scenario reflecting all Federal and state policies enacted as of September 2022, including key IRA and BIL provisions, most notably the investment and production tax credits for zero-carbon emitting electricity generation and storage (ITC and PTC), the tax credit for CO 2 capture and storage (45Q), and the tax credit for existing nuclear plants (described further in Section 2.3). To account for the impacts of IRA and BIL on electrification, assumes increased load growth consistent with a scaled version of the Medium Electrification scenario from the Electrification Futures Study (Mai et al. 2018). These scenarios are simulated across seven sets of assumptions with varying projected future electricity market conditions, including technology costs and performance, natural gas prices, and the degree of availability, feasibility, and cost of development of renewable resources, electricity transmission, and CO 2 pipeline, injection, and storage infrastructure. In addition, we simulate two sensitivities on the 'policy' treatment in which we vary key assumptions pertaining to the realized value of the clean electricity ITC and PTC: 1) the cost of monetization of tax credits, and 2) the level of bonus crediting realized by project developers. We demonstrate that IRA and BIL have the collective potential to drive substantial growth in clean electricity by 2030, while reducing costs for consumers, mitigating climate change, and decreasing the human health impacts of power sector emissions. However, we also demonstrate that if expected cost improvements of clean technologies are not realized and/or constraints on deployment driven by factors such as supply-chain challenges, regulatory hurdles, and the social acceptability of energy infrastructure development limit the rate of clean energy and associated infrastructure deployment (such as transmission), then the share of clean generation achieved and the associated emissions benefits realized may be substantively reduced.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Application of Remote Sensing for Ex-Ante Decision Support and Evaluating Impact
Deforestation is an environmental stressor that dramatically threatens biodiversity while having adverse, deep-rooted socioeconomic impacts. Interventions to address deforestation require considerable long-term investments; therefore, assessing their impact is crucial. The UN Convention on Biological Diversity encourages establishing Protected Areas (PAs) as a strategy to conserve biodiversity, secure ecosystem services, support local livelihoods, and reduce climate change impacts. The Global Environment Facility (GEF) has supported the conservation and management of PAs, yet site accessibility and data availability present challenges in assessing PAs using traditional evaluation methods. We present a novel application of satellite Earth observations for evaluating the effectiveness and impact of PAs as a deforestation mitigation strategy. Geospatial analysis and ecological forecasting methodologies provide an efficient way to quantify land cover change, estimate above-ground carbon stock, and evaluate ecosystem services provided by the PAs ex-ante. We demonstrate the value of a geospatial approach through evaluation of GEF-supported PAs in Kenya.
Remote sensing↗
Socioeconomic Impact Evaluation for Near Real-time Flood Detection in the Lower Mekong River Basin
Flood events pose a severe threat to communities in the Lower Mekong River Basin. The combination of population growth, urbanization, and economic development exacerbate the impacts of these events. Flood damage assessments, critical for understanding the effects of flooding on the local population and informing decision-makers about future risks, are frequently used to quantify the economic losses due to storms. Remote sensing systems provide a valuable tool for monitoring flood conditions and assessing their severity more rapidly than traditional post-event evaluations. The frequency and severity of extreme flood events are projected to increase, further highlighting the need for improved flood monitoring and impact analysis. In this study we integrate a socioeconomic damage assessment model with a near real-time flood remote sensing and decision support tool (NASA's Project Mekong). Direct damages to populations, infrastructure, and land cover are assessed using the 2011 Southeast Asian flood as a case study. Improved land use/land cover and flood depth assessments result in rapid loss estimates throughout the Mekong River Basin. Results suggest that rapid initial estimates of flood impacts can provide valuable information to governments, international agencies, and disaster responders in the wake of extreme flood events.
Mekong Basin↗
Sensor impact evaluation and verification for fault detection and diagnostics in building energy systems: A review
Sensors are the key information source for fault detection and diagnostics (FDD) in buildings. However, sensors are often not properly designed, installed, calibrated, located, and maintained, which negatively impacts FDD performance. Several sensor-related FDD topics have been widely studied, covering a wide range of fault types and applications. However, it is difficult to get a clear picture of the technical development of sensor-related topics in FDD. A systematic review of sensor topics is needed to summarize the existing research in a logical way, draw conclusions on the current development, and predict the future development of sensors in building FDD. To address this gap, we conducted a comprehensive literature review of more than 100 FDD-sensor-related papers. In this article, we subdivide the FDD tasks into building-level, system-level, and component-level FDD, and review sensor-related topics in each category. Our major conclusions are: (a) current data-driven FDD research focuses more on FDD algorithms than sensors, (b) sensor “hardware” research topics are less studied than sensor “software” topics, (c) very few papers focus on sensor engineering as an integral aspect of FDD development, and (d) some important sensor topics, such as sensor cost-effectiveness and sensor schema/layout/location, are not well studied. Finally, we discuss the need for a systematic framework of FDD sensors and models to integrate sensor design/selection, sensor data analysis/mining, feature selection, physics-based or data-driven algorithm development, sensor fault detection, sensor calibration, and sensor maintenance. Finally, expert interviews are conducted to validate the above findings and conclusions.
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
Measuring Impact: Evaluating Thermal Zoning Simplification on Energy Efficiency Measures Analysis
Building Energy Modeling (BEM) is a versatile tool for designing, retrofitting, ensuring code compliance, obtaining certifications, qualifying for incentives, and enabling real-time building control. However, capturing all the details of building geometry for thermal zoning can be time-consuming, costly, and sometimes computationally challenging. As a result, modelers have been applying zoning simplification based on factors such as space functions and internal loads, as well as relying on their experience and judgment while adhering to zoning rules outlined in industry standards. Despite the prevalence of this common practice, a notable gap exists in the literature regarding studies quantifying the influence of simplified thermal zoning on the evaluation of Energy Efficiency Measures (EEMs). Recognizing this gap, this paper seeks to contribute to the field by enhancing the understanding of how the simplification of thermal zoning influences the evaluation of EEMs against a baseline design. The study utilized a medium office prototype model with a detailed floor plan featuring over 20 zones per floor covering diverse functional spaces with varying internal loads and occupancy schedules. A standard thermal zoning strategy outlined in ASHRAE Standard 90.1 Appendix G was employed as the simplified zoning method. This strategy condenses the zoning into a core zone and four perimeter zones per floor. It was compared with the detailed zoning approach, which involves one zone per space. Common Energy EEMs, such as enhanced envelope, high-efficiency appliances and equipment, and HVAC controls, were individually implemented and evaluated. The results indicate that the performance comparison between the two zoning methods varies depending on the type of measures considered. Basic measures, such as adding wall insulation, demonstrate similar energy impacts, while advanced HVAC control measures, such as static pressure reset, exhibit a more substantial difference that cannot be overlooked.
Xie, Jiarong↗
Impact evaluation of composite floor sections
Graphite-epoxy floor sections representative of aircraft fuselage construction were statically and dynamically tested to evaluate their response to crash loadings. These floor sections were fabricated using a frame-stringer design typical of present aluminum aircraft without features to enhance crashworthiness. The floor sections were tested as part of a systematic research program developed to study the impact response of composite components of increasing complexity. The ultimate goal of the research program is to develop crashworthy design features for future composite aircraft. Initially, individual frames of six-foot diameter were tested both statically and dynamically. The frames were then used to construct built-up floor sections for dynamic tests at impact velocities of approximately 20 feet/sec to simulate survivable crash velocities. In addition, static tests were conducted to gain a better understanding of the failure mechanisms seen in the dynamic tests.
Boitnott, Richard L.↗
Real-time sensor measurements to evaluate impacts of load cycling on high-temperature fire-side corrosion in a PC boiler
The main objective of this research program is to design, manufacture, and demonstrate a miniaturized, multi-process, monitoring system (mMPMS) for boiler condition management and easy system deployment to obtain a higher spatial resolution. This system will facilitate a Condition-Based Maintenance (CBM) philosophy that actively monitors the health of assets to predict and prevent failures and maximize availability and generating capacity at a reduced cost. CBM systems can provide boiler data that the advanced process control (APC) system can utilize for plant performance optimization, which is increasingly relevant as coal power plants shift from predominantly base-load operation to predominantly transient operation involving large load swings. The mMPMS is based on an electrochemical sensor that provides a real-time indication of the risk of damage to key locations in the radiant or convective section of a coal-fired boiler such as metal loss rates, heat flux, metal surface temperature, and deposit thickness. These indications can be utilized to optimize boiler performance as well as improve boiler availability in conjunction with corresponding operating conditions. This monitoring system was developed and tested in the high-temperature regions of coal-fired utility boilers in this project but can be applied to many other industries and applications as well. This project leveraged the existing electrochemical noise-based monitoring system and the new sensor design is small enough to be installed through the webbing of the waterwalls without the need for long shut-downs to bend tubes and to make it feasible to obtain high spatial resolution in the boiler. Data is transferred to the plant distributed control system (DCS) and any other control system. The sensor body that houses the sensor assembly was designed to ensure good conductive contact with boiler tubes to ensure the sensor is held at an identical temperature to the tube surface temperature. The data acquisition and signal conditioning modules were redesigned into a small footprint with optimized cooling of the module. System software was developed specifically for the new signal conditioning module and is compatible with plant PLCs. After the preliminary testing at a pilot-scale facility, the three mMPMS were installed at a full-scale pulverized coal-fired plant, PacifiCorp’s Hunter 3. The systems were demonstrated over 20,000 hours at the plant during regular operation. Also, the sensor data was fed to the plant’s advanced process control system to evaluate the corrosion control by the operation changes and utilized to understand the impacts of load cycling with different ramping up and down speeds. At the end of the project, the systems were converted to the permanent installation at the power plant to be used with the advanced process control system installed at the plant.
Advanced Sensors, Corrosion, Ash Deposition, Optim↗