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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2015

A Framework for the Cross-Sectoral Integration of Multi-Model Impact Projections: Land Use Decisions Under Climate Impacts Uncertainties

Climate change and its impacts already pose considerable challenges for societies that will further increase with global warming (IPCC, 2014a, b). Uncertainties of the climatic response to greenhouse gas emissions include the potential passing of large-scale tipping points (e.g. Lenton et al., 2008; Levermann et al., 2012; Schellnhuber, 2010) and changes in extreme meteorological events (Field et al., 2012) with complex impacts on societies (Hallegatte et al., 2013). Thus climate change mitigation is considered a necessary societal response for avoiding uncontrollable impacts (Conference of the Parties, 2010). On the other hand, large-scale climate change mitigation itself implies fundamental changes in, for example, the global energy system. The associated challenges come on top of others that derive from equally important ethical imperatives like the fulfilment of increasing food demand that may draw on the same resources. For example, ensuring food security for a growing population may require an expansion of cropland, thereby reducing natural carbon sinks or the area available for bio-energy production. So far, available studies addressing this problem have relied on individual impact models, ignoring uncertainty in crop model and biome model projections. Here, we propose a probabilistic decision framework that allows for an evaluation of agricultural management and mitigation options in a multi-impactmodel setting. Based on simulations generated within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP), we outline how cross-sectorally consistent multi-model impact simulations could be used to generate the information required for robust decision making. Using an illustrative future land use pattern, we discuss the trade-off between potential gains in crop production and associated losses in natural carbon sinks in the new multiple crop- and biome-model setting. In addition, crop and water model simulations are combined to explore irrigation increases as one possible measure of agricultural intensification that could limit the expansion of cropland required in response to climate change and growing food demand. This example shows that current impact model uncertainties pose an important challenge to long-term mitigation planning and must not be ignored in long-term strategic decision making

farmlands↗
DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty-informed selection of CMIP6 Earth System Model subsets for use in multisectoral and impact models

Earth system models (ESMs) and general circulation models (GCMs) are heavily used to provide inputs to sectoral impact and multisector dynamic models, which include representations of energy, water, land, economics, and their interactions. Therefore, representing the full range of model uncertainty, scenario uncertainty, and interannual variability that ensembles of these models capture is critical to the exploration of the future co-evolution of the integrated human–Earth system. The pre-eminent source of these ensembles has been the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). With more modeling centers participating in each new CMIP phase, the size of the model archive is rapidly increasing, which can be intractable for impact modelers to effectively utilize due to computational constraints and the challenges of analyzing large datasets. In this work, we present a method to select a subset of the latest phase, CMIP6, featuring models for use as inputs to a sectoral impact or multisector dynamics models, while prioritizing preservation of the range of model uncertainty, scenario uncertainty, and interannual variability in the full CMIP6 ensemble results. This method is intended to help impact modelers select climate information from the CMIP archive efficiently for use in downstream models that require global coverage of climate information. This is particularly critical for large-ensemble experiments of multisector dynamic models that may be varying additional features beyond climate inputs in a factorial design, thus putting constraints on the number of climate simulations that can be used. We focus on temperature and precipitation outputs of CMIP6 models, as these are two of the most used variables among impact models, and many other key input variables for impacts are at least correlated with one or both of temperature and precipitation (e.g., relative humidity). Besides preserving the multi-model ensemble variance characteristics, we prioritize selecting CMIP6 models in the subset that preserve the very likely distribution of equilibrium climate sensitivity values as assessed by the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report. This approach could be applied to other output variables of climate models and, possibly when combined with emulators, offers a flexible framework for designing more efficient experiments on human-relevant climate impacts. It can also provide greater insight into the properties of existing CMIP6 models.

Snyder, Abigail C.↗
NASA NTRS2024

Scenario Setup and Forcing Data for Impact Model Evaluation and Impact Attribution Within the Third Round of the Inter-Sectoral Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a)

This paper describes the rationale and the protocol of the first component of the third simulation round of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a, http://www.isimip.org, last access: 2 November 2023) and the associated set of climate-related and direct human forcing data (CRF and DHF, respectively). The observation-based climate-related forcings for the first time include high-resolution observational climate forcings derived by orographic downscaling, monthly to hourly coastal water levels, and wind fields associated with historical tropical cyclones. The DHFs include land use patterns, population densities, information about water and agricultural management, and fishing intensities. The ISIMIP3a impact model simulations driven by these observation-based climate-related and direct human forcings are designed to test to what degree the impact models can explain observed changes in natural and human systems. In a second set of ISIMIP3a experiments the participating impact models are forced by the same DHFs but a counterfactual set of atmospheric forcings and coastal water levels where observed trends have been removed. These experiments are designed to allow for the attribution of observed changes in natural, human, and managed systems to climate change, rising CH 4 and CO 2 concentrations, and sea level rise according to the definition of the Working Group II contribution to the IPCC AR6.

Inter Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Projec↗
DOE OSTI2022

International Jobs and Economic Development Impacts Model: Stories of Use and Impact

The International Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (I-JEDI) model is a freely available economic model that estimates gross economic impacts from wind, solar, biopower, and geothermal energy projects around the world. This short publication outlines how the tool has been used by organizations around the world.

economic development↗
NASA NTRS1994

Impact winter and the Cretaceous/Tertiary extinctions: Results of a Chicxulub asteroid impact model

The Chicxulub impact crater in Mexico is the site of the impact purported to have caused mass extinctions at the Cretaceous/Tertiary (K/T) boundary. 2-D hydrocode modeling of the impact, coupled with studies of the impact site geology, indiate that between 0.4 and 7.0 x 10(exp 17) g of sulfur were vaporized by the impact into anhydrite target rocks. A small portion of the sulfur was released as SO3 or SO4, which converted rapidly into H2SO4 aerosol and fell as acid rain. A radiative transfer model, coupled with a model of coagulation indicates that the aerosol prolonged the initial blackout period caused by impact dust only if the aerosol contained impurities. A larger portion of sulfur was released as SO2, which converted to aerosol slowly, due to the rate-limiting oxidation of SO2. Our radiative transfer calculations, combined with rates of acid production, coagulation, and diffusion indicate that solar transmission was reduced to 10-20% of normal for a period of 8-13 yr. This reduction produced a climate forcing (cooling) of -300 W/sq.m, which far exceeded the +8 W/sq.m greenhouse warming, caused by the CO2 released through the vaporization of carbonates, and therefore produced a decade of freezing and near-freezing temperatures. Several decades of moderate warming followed the decade of severe cooling due to the long residence time of CO2. The prolonged impact winter may have been a major cause of the K/T extinctions.

Pope, Kevin O.↗
NASA NTRS2014

The Parallel System for Integrating Impact Models and Sectors (pSIMS)

We present a framework for massively parallel climate impact simulations: the parallel System for Integrating Impact Models and Sectors (pSIMS). This framework comprises a) tools for ingesting and converting large amounts of data to a versatile datatype based on a common geospatial grid; b) tools for translating this datatype into custom formats for site-based models; c) a scalable parallel framework for performing large ensemble simulations, using any one of a number of different impacts models, on clusters, supercomputers, distributed grids, or clouds; d) tools and data standards for reformatting outputs to common datatypes for analysis and visualization; and e) methodologies for aggregating these datatypes to arbitrary spatial scales such as administrative and environmental demarcations. By automating many time-consuming and error-prone aspects of large-scale climate impacts studies, pSIMS accelerates computational research, encourages model intercomparison, and enhances reproducibility of simulation results. We present the pSIMS design and use example assessments to demonstrate its multi-model, multi-scale, and multi-sector versatility.

crop modeling↗
NASA NTRS2020

Impact Testing of Inconel 718 for Material Impact Model Development

One of the difficulties with developing and verifying accurate impact models is that parameters such as high strain-rate material properties, failure modes, static properties, and impact test measurements are often obtained from a variety of different sources using different materials, with little control over consistency among the different sources. In addition, there is often a lack of quantitative measurements in impact tests to which the models can be compared. To alleviate some of these problems, a project is underway to develop a consistent set of material property, impact test data, and failure analysis for a variety of aircraft materials that can be used to develop improved impact failure and deformation models. This project is jointly funded by the NASA Glenn Research Center and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) William J. Hughes Technical Center. Unique features of this set of data are that all material property and impact test data are obtained using traceable material, the test methods and procedures are extensively documented, and all of the raw data is available. Four parallel efforts are currently underway. The Ohio State University conducts both measurement of material deformation and failure response over a wide range of strain rates and temperatures and failure analysis of material property specimens and impact test articles. The George Mason University conducts the development of improved numerical modeling techniques for deformation and failure. Glenn conducts the impact testing of flat panels and substructures. This report describes impact testing performed on Inconel 718 sheet and plate samples of different thicknesses with different types of projectiles, one a regular cylinder and one with a more complex geometry incorporating features representative of a jet engine fan blade. Data from this testing will be used in validating material models developed under this program. The material tests and the material models developed in this program will be published in separate reports.

J Michael Pereira↗
NASA NTRS1992

Sudbury project (University of Muenster-Ontario Geological Survey): Summary of results - an updated impact model

In 1984 the Ontario Geological Survey initiated a research project on the Sudbury structure (SS) in cooperation with the University of Muenster. The project included field mapping (1984-1989) and petrographic, chemical, and isotope analyses of the major stratigraphic units of the SS. Four diploma theses and four doctoral theses were performed during the project (1984-1992). Specific results of the various investigations are reported. Selected areas of the SS were mapped and sampled: Footwall rocks; Footwall breccia and parts of the sublayer and lower section of the Sudbury Igneous Complex (SIC); Onaping Formation and the upper section of the SIC; and Sudbury breccia and adjacent Footwall rocks along extended profiles up to 55 km from the SIC. All these stratigraphic units of the SS were studied in substantial detail by previous workers. The most important characteristic of the previous research is that it was based either on a volcanic model or on a mixed volcanic-impact model for the origin of the SS. The present project was clearly directed toward a test of the impact origin of the SS without invoking an endogenic component. In general, our results confirm the most widely accepted stratigraphic division of the SS. However, our interpretation of some of the major stratigraphic units is different from most views expressed. The stratigraphy of the SS and its new interpretation is given as a basis for discussion.

Avermann, M.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Materials Database Development for Ballistic Impact Modeling

A set of experimental data is being generated under the Fundamental Aeronautics Program Supersonics project to help create and validate accurate computational impact models of jet engine impact events. The data generated will include material property data generated at a range of different strain rates, from 1x10(exp -4)/sec to 5x10(exp 4)/sec, over a range of temperatures. In addition, carefully instrumented ballistic impact tests will be conducted on flat plates and curved structures to provide material and structural response information to help validate the computational models. The material property data and the ballistic impact data will be generated using materials from the same lot, as far as possible. It was found in preliminary testing that the surface finish of test specimens has an effect on measured high strain rate tension response of AL2024. Both the maximum stress and maximum elongation are greater on specimens with a smoother finish. This report gives an overview of the testing that is being conducted and presents results of preliminary testing of the surface finish study.

Pereira, J. Michael↗
NASA NTRS1990

Nondimensional impact models for composite laminates

The equations governing the problem of low-velocity impact of a simply supported rectangular laminated plate are nondimensionalized such that the problem is defined in terms of five dimensionless parameters. A parametric study using the Graeco-Latin Factorial Plan is performed. Semi-empirical formulas for maximum impact force, impact duration, and maximum back surface strains are obtained. It is found that some of the simple impact models provide the bounds for the case of impact on a finite extent plate.

Sankar, B. V.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Modeling Impact of Urbanization in US Cities Using Simple Biosphere Model SiB2

We combine Landsat- and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-based products, as well as climate drivers from Phase 2 of the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS-2) in a Simple Biosphere land surface model (SiB2) to assess the impact of urbanization in continental USA (excluding Alaska and Hawaii). More than 300 cities and their surrounding suburban and rural areas are defined in this study to characterize the impact of urbanization on surface climate including surface energy, carbon budget, and water balance. These analyses reveal an uneven impact of urbanization across the continent that should inform upon policy options for improving urban growth including heat mitigation and energy use, carbon sequestration and flood prevention.

Zhang, Ping↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Lessons Learned and Best Practices for Utilizing a Generalized Composite Impact Model

A material model which incorporates several key capabilities which have been identified as lacking in currently available composite impact models has been developed. The material model utilizes experimentally based tabulated input to define the evolution of plasticity and damage as opposed to specifying discrete input parameters (such as modulus and strength). It has been implemented into the commercially available transient dynamic finite element code LS-DYNA® as MAT_213. The model can simulate the nonlinear deformation, damage and failure that take place in a composite under dynamic loading conditions. As MAT_213 is now being used by a general user community that did not participate in the model development process, a number of issues have been identified that caused uncertainty in assembling a MAT_213 input deck and conducting a MAT_213 analysis. The overall goal of this effort is to develop a quantified set of lessons learned and best practices which will permit a new user to conduct useful MAT_213 simulations without needing to have detailed expert knowledge of the material model and its theoretical underpinnings.

Micromechanics↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Application of the MAT 213 Composite Impact Model to NASA Problems of Interest

A material model has been developed which incorporates several key capabilities which have been identified as lacking in currently available composite impact models. The material model utilizes experimentally based tabulated input to define the evolution of plasticity and damage as opposed to specifying discrete input parameters (such as modulus and strength). The material model has been implemented into LS-DYNA® as MAT 213. The model can simulate the nonlinear deformation, damage and failure that takes place in a composite under dynamic loading conditions. The deformation model utilizes an orthotropic plasticity formulation. For the damage model, the nonlinear unloading response that is observed prior to the point where the peak stress is reached can be simulated, as well as the stress degradation response that occurs after the peak stress is reached. A variety of failure models, including a generalized tabulated failure model which facilitates the utilization of general failure surfaces, have been implemented into MAT 213. Recent studies at NASA have concentrated on using MAT 213 to analyze both the impact and crush response of a variety of laminated and textile architectures. Several of these studies will be discussed in the presented paper. For example, a woven carbon/Kevlar composite is currently being examined for use in an energy absorber system for rotorcraft structures. MAT 213 analyses have been conducted to examine the ability of the model to accurately simulate the dynamic crush response of this material. Studies are also being conducted to examine the ability of MAT 213 to simulate the ballistic impact response of representative laminated and woven thermoplastic and thermoset matrix composites. NASA efforts are also concentrated on developing methods and processes for improving characterization methods and developing “best practices” for using MAT 213, a summary of which will be discussed in the paper.

Polymer Matrix Composites↗