Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “implausibility”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2019

Creative Outcome as Implausible Utility

Two perspectives are used to reframe Simonton’s recent three-factor definition of creative outcome. The first perspective is functional: that creative ideas are those that add significantly to knowledge by providing both utility and learning. The second perspective is calculational: that learning can be estimated by the change in probabilistic beliefs about an idea’s utility before and after it has played out in its environment. The results of the reframing are proposed conceptual and mathematical definitions of (a) creative outcome as the product of two overarching factors (utility and learning) and (b) learning as a function of two subsidiary factors (blindness reduction and surprise). Learning will be shown to depend much more strongly on surprise than on blindness reduction, so creative outcome may then also be defined as “implausible utility.”

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1983

On the clock mechanism and the implausibility of the 35 day precessing disk in HZ Herculis/Hercules X-1

The concept of the precessing accretion disk in HZ Her/Her X-1 in its varied forms, to account for the 35 day periodicity in the X-ray flux, has met many objections from a number of workers on various grounds, but it is still being invoked in current publications. These objections are reviewed and additional arguments are presented against the precessing accretion disk model. The implausibility of the disk models is demonstrated. An alternate clock mechanism, based on nonlinear oscillations in the normal star, which provides the modulation of the mass flow is discussed.

Kondo, Y.↗
DOE OSTI2019

Implausible projections overestimate near-term Bitcoin CO 2 emissions

Bitcoin mining is becoming an increasingly energy-intensive process whose future implications for energy use and CO 2 emissions remain poorly understood. This is in part because—like many IT systems—its computational efficiencies and service demands have been evolving rapidly. Therefore, scenario analyses that explore these implications can fill pressing knowledge gaps, but they must be approached with care. History has shown that poorly constructed scenarios of future IT energy use—often due to overly-simplistic extrapolations of early rapid growth trends—can do more harm than good by spreading misinformation and driving ill-informed decisions. Indeed, the utility of an energy demand scenario is directly proportional to its credibility, which is typically demonstrated through careful attention to technology characteristics and evolution, analytical rigor and transparency, and designing scenarios that align with plausible future outcomes.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
NASA NTRS1973

Dynamically plausible hypotheses of lunar origin

The implausibility of the capture hypothesis of lunar origin is pointed out. The reason for this implausibility is the extreme weakness of the only known energy sink for pure capture, tidal friction. A mechanism proposed by Alfven and Arrhenius (1972) is the locking of the moon in synchronization with a longitudinal variation in the earth's gravitational field. It is shown that collision with preexisting satellite matter is the most effective means of capturing a moon.

Kaula, W. M.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Stored mafic/ultramafic crust and early Archean mantle depletion

Both early and late Archean rocks from greenstone belts and felsic gneiss complexes exhibit positive epsilon(Nd) values of +1 to +5 by 3.5 Ga, demonstrating that a depleted mantle reservoir existed very early. The amount of preserved pre-3.0 Ga continental crust cannot explain such high epsilon values in the depleted residue unless the volume of residual mantle was very small: a layer less than 70 km thick by 3.0 Ga. Repeated and exclusive sampling of such a thin layer, especially in forming the felsic gneiss complexes, is implausible. Extraction of enough continental crust to deplete the early mantle and its destructive recycling before 3.0 Ga ago requires another implausibility, that the sites of crustal generation of recycling were substantially distinct. In contrast, formation of mafic or ultramafic crust analogous to present-day oceanic crust was continuous from very early times. Recycled subducted oceanic lithosphere is a likely contributor to present-day hotspot magmas, and forms a reservoir at least comparable in volume to continental crust. Subduction of an early mafic/ultramafic oceanic crust and temporary storage rather than immediate mixing back into undifferentiated mantle may be responsible for the depletion and high epsilon(Nd) values of the Archean upper mantle.

Chase, Clement G.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Silica and Pyroxene in IVA Irons; Possible Formation of the IVA Magma by Impact Melting and Reduction of L-LL-Chondrite Materials Followed by Crystallization and Cooling

Group IVA is a large magmatic group of iron meteorites. The mean DELTA O-17 (= delta O-17 - 0.52(raised dot) delta O-18) of the silicates is approx. plus or minus 1.2%o, similar to the highest values in L chondrites and the lowest values in LL chondrites; delta O-18 values are also in the L/LL range. This strongly suggests that IVA irons formed by melting L-LL parental material, but the mean Ni content of IVA irons (83 mg/g) is much lower than that of a presumed L-LL parent (approx. 170 mg/g) and the low-Ca pyroxene present in two IVA meteorites is Fs13, much lower than the Fs20-29 values in L and LL chondrites. Thus, formation from L-LL precursors requires extensive addition of metallic Fe, probably produced by reduction of FeS and FeO. Group IVA also has S/Ni, Ga/Ni, and Ge/Ni ratios that are much lower than those in L-LL chondrites or any chondrite group that preserves nebular compositions, implying loss of these volatile elements during asteroidal processing. We suggest that these reduction and loss processes occurred near the surface of the asteroid during impact heating, and resulted partly from reduction by C, and partly from the thermal dissociation of FeS and FeO with loss of O and S. The hot (approx. 1770 K) low-viscosity melt quickly moved through channels in the porous asteroid to form a core. Two members of the IVA group, Sao Joao Nepomuceno (hereafter, SJN) and Steinbach, contain moderate amounts of orthopyroxene and silica, and minor amounts of low-Ca clinopyroxene. Even though SJN formed after approx. 26% crystallization and Steinbach formed after approx. 77% Crystallization of the IVA core, both could have originated within several tens of meters of the core-mantle interface if 99% of the crystallization occurred from the center outwards. Two other members of the group (Gibeon and Bishop Canyon) contain tabular tridymite, which we infer to have initially formed as veins deposited from a cooling SiO-rich vapor. The silicates were clearly introduced into IVA irons after the initial magma crystallized. Because the y-iron crystals in SJN are typically about 5 cm across, an order of magnitude smaller than in IVA irons that do not contain massive silicates, we infer that the metal was in the gamma-iron field when the silicates were injected. The SJN and Steinbach silicate compositions are near the low-Ca-pyroxene/silica eutectic compositions. We suggest that a tectonic event produced a eutectic-like liquid and injected it together with unmelted pyroxene grains into fissures in the solid metal core. Published estimates of IVA metallographic cooling rates range from 20 to 3000 K/Ma, leading to a hypothesized breakup of the core during a major impact followed by scrambling of the core and mantle debris [Haack, H., Scott, E.R.D., Love, S.G., Brearley, A. 1996. Thermal histories of IVA stony-iron and iron meteorites: evidence for asteroid fragmentation and reaccretion. Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta 60, 3103-3113]. This scrambling model is physically implausible and cannot explain the strong correlation of estimated cooling rates with metal composition. Previous workers concluded that the low-Ca clinopyroxene in SJN and Steinbach formed from protopyroxene by quenching at a cooling rate of 10(sup 12) K/Ma, and suggested that this also supported an impact-scrambling model. This implausible spike in cooling rate by a factor of 10(sup 10) can be avoided if the low-Ca clinopyroxene were formed by a late shock event that converted orthopyroxene to clinopyroxene followed by minimal growth in the clinopyroxene field, probably because melt was also produced. We suggest that metallographic cooling-rate estimates (e.g., based on island taenite) giving similar values throughout the metal compositional range are more plausible, and that the IVA parent asteroid can be modeled by monotonic cooling followed by a high-temperature impact event that introduced silicates into the metal and a low-temperature impact event that partially converted thopyroxene into low-Ca clinopyroxene.

Wasson, John T.↗
DOE OSTI2019

Combining a land surface model with groundwater model calibration to assess the impacts of groundwater pumping in a mountainous desert basin

The quantification of recharge and trans-valley underflow is needed in arid regions to estimate the impacts of new water withdrawals on the water table. However, for mountainous desert areas, such estimates are highly challenging, due to data scarcity, heterogeneous soils, and long residence times. Conventional assessment employs isolated groundwater models configured with simplified uniform estimates of recharge. Here, we employed a data-constrained surface-subsurface process model to provide an ensemble of spatially distributed recharge and underflow estimates using perturbed parameters. Then, the Model-Independent Parameter Estimation and Uncertainty Quantification (PEST) package was used to calibrate the aquifer hydraulic conductivity field in MODFLOW for this ensemble and reject implausible recharge values. This novel dual-model approach, broadly applicable to mountainous arid regions, was designed to maximally exploit available data sources. It can assimilate groundwater head observations, reject unrealistic parameters, and narrow the range of estimated drawdowns due to pumping. We applied this approach to the Chuckwalla basin in California, USA to determine natural recharge. Simulated recharge concentrates along alluvial fans at the mountain fronts and ephemeral washes where run-off water infiltrates. If an evenly distributed recharge was employed as in conventional studies, it would result in regional biases in estimated drawdown and larger uncertainty bounds. Here, we also note that the speed of groundwater recovery does not guarantee sustainability: heavy pumping induces large hydraulic gradients that initially recover quickly when pumping is halted, but the system may not ultimately recover to pre-pumping levels.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Logistic Regression in Clinical Studies

• A logistic regression model is used when the outcome of interest is binary. The term “logistic” refers to the underlying “logit” (log odds) function that is used to model the binary outcome. • Odds ratios are produced from a logistic regression model and have a useful interpretation. • Tips, tricks and concepts used to fit logistic regression models are similar to those used in linear regression models. • Modeling building that is knowledge-based rather than automatic is preferred in most applications of logistic regression. • A logistic regression model that is overparameterized (ie, too many variables for too few events) can result in odds ratios that are implausibly large and confidence intervals that are wide and uninterpretable. These types of “overfitted” models should be avoided. • Logistic regression models can be fit using most standard statistical software.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2021

CO adsorption on MnO(100): Experimental benchmarks compared to DFT

In this study, CO adsorption on the MnO(100) surface was studied using temperature programmed desorption (TPD) and density functional theory (DFT). TPD results show that CO is weakly-bound on MnO(100), with an experimental adsorption energy of -35.6 ± 2.1 kJ/mol at terrace sites in the low coverage limit. PBE simulations suggest that CO adsorption causes an implausible (2 × 2) surface reconstruction. PBE+U simulations show no signs of surface reconstruction, and provide an accurate estimate of the adsorption energy (-36.4 kJ/mol) when combined with the DFT-D3 method with Becke-Jonson damping to correct for van der Waals interactions. This simulation also shows that CO adsorbs C-down onto the Mn 2+ terrace site in a tilted geometry, which is also observed experimentally and computationally on the similarly-structured NiO(100) transition metal oxide surface. TPD results for large doses show a plateauing of the coverage at about 0.4 monolayers of CO at 85 K, with a defect coverage equivalent to 0.08 monolayers. Adsorption associated with defect sites is indicated by a high-temperature desorption tail which is not satisfactorily explained by DFT simulations of simple step or oxygen vacancy defects.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Overview of the Nephele Perturbed Parameter Ensemble for Aerosol‐Cloud Interactions in E3SMv3

Aerosol-cloud interactions (aci) are the leading source of uncertainty in inferring climate sensitivity from the historical record. Earth system models (ESMs) struggle to represent aci because the processes responsible for these phenomena occur at much finer time and space scales than can be resolved by any ESM. Observational constraints provide key benchmarks to test ESMs, but cannot be used alone to fully understand aci processes except in very specific cases where causality is controlled; some degree of modeling is required to infer aci and estimate radiative forcing. Here, we generate and characterize a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) in version 3 of the Energy Exascale ESM (E3SMv3). We perturb 25 parameters that govern aci processes over 250 members and integrate the model over present-day and preindustrial aerosol emissions. We find that the process representation in E3SMv3 is flexible and can generate global-mean effective radiative forcings due to aci (ERFaci) ranging from −3.0 to +0.9 W m −2 . The positive ERFaci values simulated by a portion of the PPE are implausible and result from parameter combinations that produce unrealistic top-of-atmosphere energy fluxes. While global-mean cloud droplet number concentration always increases in response to anthropogenic aerosol, cloud liquid water path can both increase and decrease, suggesting that precipitation suppression is not the only aerosol-cloud adjustment represented by E3SMv3. Analysis of which processes control liquid cloud adjustment in the PPE points toward stratiform precipitation processes and aerosol activation, which is consistent with many previous ESMs, as well as the new two-moment convective cloud microphysics in E3SMv3.

Nugent, Jacqueline M. [Univ. of Wyoming, Laramie, ↗
DOE OSTI2021

Aerodynamic integration produces a vehicle shape with a negative drag coefficient

Negative drag coefficients are normally associated with a vessel outfitted with a sail to extract energy from the wind and propel the vehicle forward. Therefore, the notion of a heavy vehicle, that is, a semi truck, that generates negative aerodynamic drag without a sail or any external appendages may seem implausible, especially given the fact that these vehicles have some of the largest drag coefficients on the road today. However, using both wind tunnel measurements and computational fluid dynamics simulations, we demonstrate aerodynamically integrated vehicle shapes that generate negative body-axis drag in a crosswind as a result of large negative frontal pressures that effectively “pull” the vehicle forward against the wind, much like a sailboat. While negative body-axis drag exists only for wind yaw angles above a certain analytical threshold, the negative frontal pressures exist at smaller yaw angles and subsequently produce body-axis drag coefficients that are significantly less than those of modern heavy vehicles. The application of this aerodynamic phenomenon to the heavy vehicle industry would produce sizable reductions in petroleum use throughout the United States.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Upper bounds for 21st-century surface air temperatures in the Western United States

The last decade has seen a large number of severe heatwaves that were unprecedented in the observational record, highlighting challenges associated with observationally-based statistical quantification of the likelihood and magnitude of future extreme temperatures. An alternative to such probabilistic assessments is identification of upper bounds that quantify the hottest surface air temperatures that can possibly be achieved by the end of the 21st century. Theory, simulations, and observational analyses support the existence of a finite upper bound for surface air temperature; however, estimates for future upper-bound values that are realistic and usable for planning remain unavailable. Here, we combine atmospheric theory with large ensembles of dynamically downscaled projections to estimate historical and end-of-century upper bounds for surface air temperatures. A number of physical mechanisms can influence upper bounds, and at the end of the 21st century, estimates based on mechanisms that yield more moderate upper-bounds produce values around 60∘C for much of the Western United States and in excess of 80∘C for the hottest parts of the domain. Even cooler high-altitude locations have end-of-century upper bounds over 50∘C. Although these upper-bound estimates might seem implausibly large, increases in the upper bounds over the 21st century are similar to increases in dynamically downscaled peak surface temperatures after adjusting those downscaled temperatures to eliminate the possibly biased model trends in surface specific humidity. While upper bound estimates are high relative to historical observations, they nonetheless suggest that heatwave intensity risk is bounded, with uncertainty dominated by projections of surface and upper-level humidity.

Risser, Mark D↗
DOE OSTI2023

Inference of gravitational field superposition from quantum measurements

Experiments are beginning to probe the interaction of quantum particles with gravitational fields beyond the uniform-field regime. In nonrelativistic quantum mechanics, the gravitational field in such experiments can be written as a superposition state. We empirically demonstrate that semiclassical theories of gravity can avoid gravitational superposition states only by decoupling the gravitational field energy from the quantum particle’s time evolution. Furthermore, such theories must specify a preferred quantum reference frame in which the equations of motion are valid. To the extent that these properties are theoretically implausible, recent experiments provide indirect evidence that gravity has quantum features. Proposed experiments with superposed gravitational sources would provide even stronger evidence that gravity is nonclassical.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2019

Lattice dynamics and elasticity in thermoelectric Mg 2 Si 1 - x Sn x

Lattice dynamics and elastic constants in Mg 2 Si 1-x Sn x were investigated using resonant ultrasound spectroscopy, Mossbauer spectroscopy, nuclear inelastic scattering, and inelastic x-ray scattering. Increasing the Sn content x results in smaller elastic constants, lower Sn specific Debye temperature, lower speed of sound, and a softening of acoustic Sn specific phonons. However, close to band convergence at about x = 0.6, the shear modulus is well below the expected value, which suggests a pronounced connection between band convergence and lattice dynamics in this system. Based on the determined speed of sound and average phonon group velocity, the importance of optical phonons for lattice thermal conductivity is discussed, as the significant reduction in both velocities would yield an implausibly low lattice thermal conductivity of only about 60% of the experimental value. Sn specific thermodynamic quantities calculated from the Sn specific density of phonon states substantiate the general softening of lattice vibrations upon substitution of Si by Sn. A major contribution to the vibrational entropy is thus due to Sn specific vibrational modes. The generalized density of phonon states in Mg 2 Si 1-x Sn x derived from inelastic x-ray scattering for one composition shows that vibrational modes related to lightweight Mg and Si set in above 12.5 meV, whereas Sn specific modes are concentrated around 11 meV.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Comparison of SUSY spectra generators for natural SUSY and string landscape predictions

Models of natural supersymmetry give rise to a weak scale m weak ~ m W,Z,h ~ 100 GeV without any (implausible) finetuning of independent contributions to the weak scale. These models, which exhibit radiatively driven naturalness (RNS), are expected to arise from statistical analysis of the string landscape wherein large soft terms are favored, but subject to a not-too-large value of the derived weak scale in each pocket universe of the greater multiverse. The string landscape picture then predicts, using the Isajet SUSY spectra generator Isasugra, a statistical peak at m h ~ 125 GeV with sparticles generally beyond current LHC search limits. In this paper, we investigate how well these conclusions hold up using other popular spectra generators: SOFTSUSY, SPHENO and SUSPECT (SSS). We built a computer code DEW4SLHA which operates on SUSY Les Houches Accord files to calculate the associated electroweak naturalness measure Δ EW . The SSS generators tend to yield a Higgs mass peak ~125–127 GeV with a superparticle mass spectra rather similar to that generated by Isasugra. In an Appendix, we include loop corrections to Δ EW in a more standard notation.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Quality-Controlled Meteorological Data from the Flood Control District of Maricopa County (FCDMC) Network, Phoenix, Arizona (1987-2024)

This dataset contains 15- or 30-minute interval meteorological data from the Flood Control District of Maricopa County (FCDMC), Arizona, USA, covering eight key variables across multiple sensor stations between 1987 and 2024. Each variable is stored as a separate CSV file, containing time-series data that have undergone rigorous quality control (QC) procedures and, where appropriate, short-gap interpolation for consistency. The quality control (QC) pipeline consisted of four sequential tests: (1) a range test to ensure all values fall within physically realistic limits, (2) a step test to identify abrupt and implausible changes between consecutive records, (3) a proximity test that validates flagged values from step test using data from nearby stations and exceedance probability thresholds, and (4) a persistence test to detect and remove periods of unrealistically constant readings. These thresholds were calibrated to Arizona’s environmental conditions and sensor specifications. After QC, short gaps (≤2 hours) were linearly interpolated to ensure consistent temporal resolution, except for wind variables. Due to a major upgrade in FCDMC’s data transmission system, only ALERT-2 protocol data (2016–2024) for wind variables are included; earlier ALERT-1 data were excluded because of irregular sampling and high missing rates. This dataset supports regional climate and infrastructure resilience studies by providing standardized, high-resolution meteorological data for the greater Phoenix metropolitan area.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Model Exploration of an Information-Based Healthcare Intervention Using Parallelization and Active Learning

This paper describes the application of a large-scale active learning method to characterize the parameter space of a computational agent-based model developed to investigate the impact of CommunityRx, a clinical information-based health intervention that provides patients with personalized information about local community resources to meet basic and self-care needs. Additionally, the diffusion of information about community resources and their use is modeled via networked interactions and their subsequent effect on agents' use of community resources across an urban population. A random forest model is iteratively fitted to model evaluations to characterize the model parameter space with respect to observed empirical data. We demonstrate the feasibility of using high-performance computing and active learning model exploration techniques to characterize large parameter spaces; by partitioning the parameter space into potentially viable and non-viable regions, we rule out regions of space where simulation output is implausible to observed empirical data. We argue that such methods are necessary to enable model exploration in complex computational models that incorporate increasingly available micro-level behavior data. We provide public access to the model and high-performance computing experimentation code.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Transient superconductivity at nano- and meso-scales

High-T c superconductivity is surpassed by few, if any, other unsolved problems in contemporary physics in terms of its richness, complexity, impact on other fields, and potential technological importance in energy applications. Recent discoveries reveal that the highest transition temperatures emerge under extraordinary experimental conditions such as the strong perturbation of a single atomic layer material by the underlying substrate, application of ~200 GPa pressure or ~MV/cm static electric fields, or irradiation by intense femtosecond optical fields. Research in superconductivity under extreme experimental conditions is challenging and requires the development of novel experimental methods and new theoretical tools suitable to tackle the problem. Our team has approached the challenges of transient superconductivity under intense optical fields by rethinking the types of experimental observables that are best suited to elucidate the physics of light-induced effects. This exercise has identified the need for: i) ultra-fast spatio-temporal probes enabling access to plasmonic properties and also nano-scale inhomogeneities that are ubiquitous in unconventional superconductors; ii) meso-scale structures and hybrid meta-surfaces imperative for strong enhancement of optical fields and iii) theoretical approaches suitable to explain and predict the response of superconductors under ultra-fast photo-excitation. Co-PIs have already made major advances with developing capabilities i)-iii). Therefore, our team is poised to make significant progress in transient superconductivity by exploring novel spatio-temporal effects that currently remain unattainable. Co-investigators will search for light-induced superconductivity in the high-T c cuprates to build upon spectacular recent results still lacking independent confirmations. Novel data acquisition methods combined with nano-plasmonic imaging will allow our team to test the hypothesis of photo-induced superconducting pairing. Spatio-temporal experiments will provide insights into the interplay between superconductivity and competing orders in the cuprates. Co-PIs will also investigate strong light-matter interaction and superconductivity in FeSe monolayers. Finally, we will study spatio-temporal electrodynamics of planar Josephson junctions. This latter direction will allow our team to thoroughly characterize one of the most fundamental examples of inhomogeneity in all of unconventional superconductivity. The proposed experiments in combination with theoretical analysis will provide information that is difficult to obtain using alternative methods. Basov and Averitt will carry out pump-probe spectroscopy and nano-imaging experiments. Averitt and Hone will design and fabricate state-of-the-art meta-surfaces. Theoretical and computational studies of ultrafast transient phenomena will be carried out by Millis and Fogler. Modeling of time-resolved nano-optical effects will be done by Fogler. The bulk of the requested budget will be used to support graduate students at Columbia & UCSD that will be co-supervised by co-PIs. The proposed program is transformative, since it will enable an entire suite of experiments previously either impossible or technically implausible. It will deliver critically important insights not only into mechanisms of unconventional superconductivity but also to many other correlated quantum materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗