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At least 19 records

Distribution System Model Calibration for GMLC 3.3.3 "Incipient Failure Identification for Common Grid Asset Classes" - Project Summary

Distribution system model calibration is a key enabling task for incipient failure identification within the distribution system. This report summarizes the work and publications by Sandia National Laboratories on the GMLC project titled “Incipient Failure Identification for Common Grid Asset Classes”. This project was a joint effort between Sandia National Laboratories, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, National Energy Technology Laboratory, and Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The included work covers distribution system topology identification, transformer groupings, phase identification, regulator and tap position estimation, and the open-source release and implementation of the developed algorithms.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Forensic Analysis of Faulted NSTX-U Inner Poloidal Field Coil

The failure of the NSTX-U PF1A upper coil suspended plasma operations during the project's first operational campaign after commissioning. Initial nondestructive testing and examination of the failed coil was followed by extensive nondestructive radiography. Destructive testing facilitated visual borescope/videoscope inspection through the cooling path, vacuum testing, and electrical testing of every conductor segment. One conductor cooling path visually evidenced a void through the sidewall of the cooling path in a layer-to-layer region. The identified void in the conductor cooling path was not proximal to a braze or joggle. Electrical testing indicated that the voided conductor segment was a member of a group of 14 conductor segments that evidenced low-resistance connectivity. Four braze joints and two lead segments were subjected to 400-lbf/in 2 hydrostatic pressure testing followed by helium leak testing and evidenced that there were no detectable leaks in the tested cooling path segments. The faulted region was proximal to the center of the coil pack and evidenced historical electrical pitting and molten conductor debris. Samples of the epoxy resin insulation system were extracted and analyzed with dynamic mechanical analysis and differential scanning calorimetry techniques. Epoxy resin insulation samples were subjected to immersion testing per ASTM D570. Metallurgical samples were extracted from the coil pack conductors and subjected to hardness testing and grain structure analysis. The base material testing results indicated no abnormalities. In conclusion, the coil incipient failure was determined to most likely have resulted from conductive material located between conductor and insulation layers.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Facilitating Data Collection of Maintenance Events to Populate the Hydrogen Component Reliability Database (HyCReD)

The Hydrogen Component Reliability Database (HyCReD) is a collaborative project between the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, the University of Maryland, and hydrogen stakeholders to improve safety and reliability for hydrogen facilities by implementing component reliability data taxonomies that support hydrogen infrastructure failure rate analysis. The project aims to quantify failure rates of hydrogen components through high-quality data collection and analysis on root causes and maintenance needed. HyCReD provides a common database for cataloging hydrogen component failures which exists for reliability research in many other mature industries [2]. The database fills a gap for the hydrogen community by providing a scientifically rigorous approach to quantitative risk assessment (QRA), prognostic health management (PHM), and reliability-centered maintenance (RCM) analysis. High level results will be aggregated and anonymized to protect company sensitive information; detailed results will be used to help address issues of hydrogen components. These advanced analytics will support accelerated deployment of hydrogen infrastructure by enabling better: design and safety of projects (safety codes and standards development), infrastructure reliability and cost (component failure rates, maintenance protocols), and component R&D needs (robust supply chain). A key to a successful HyCReD implementation is facilitating the ease of reporting and data quality in the database that can be used for analysis. Maintenance data was a previously identified gap in initial efforts to populate and validate the database taxonomies [3]. Collection of maintenance data will be instrumental in identifying failure modes and rates, identifying incipient component failures or reduced performance, cataloging best practices for maintenance routines and methods for prognostic health management, and quantifying the risk and effect of different failure modes. Several key priorities are identified for streamlined data collection to achieve quality and detailed failure data: Applicability, Ease of Use, Accessibility, and Information Security. The HyCReD team has now begun deployment of the database to several companies and groups that have signed non-disclosure agreements to facilitate the data collection of failures in industry hydrogen refueling station infrastructure. This paper will provide an update into the process of HyCReD deployment including the development of a coding guide for facility personnel to reference and ensure data quality and consistency from one station to another as well as implementation of contextually dependent data fields of system taxonomy and formatted entries to provide ease of use. The goal is to communicate the lessons learned from the roll-out to technicians and engineers in the field, and the addition of need for high level of security to protect all stakeholders.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

An assessment of spall failure modes in laser powder bed fusion fabricated stainless steel 316L with low-volume intentional porosity

Here, this paper reports on spall failure and damage modes in Laser Powder Bed Fusion fabricated Stainless Steel 316L (SS316L) with intentional levels of low-volume (1–5 vol. %) porosity and pore sizes of 200, 350, and 500 μm. The fabricated specimens were subjected to uniaxial-strain plate-impact loading at ~4.5 GPa, to initiate incipient spall failure. Analysis of velocimetry profiles measured using multi-probe photon-Doppler velocimetry coupled with post-mortem analysis of soft-recovered samples reveals local suppression of spall failure (termed as spall-dominated) as a function of porosity, as the failure mechanism transitions from spall-centered tensile stress dominated to a pore-centered microstructure-dominated damage mode involving void/crack nucleation and growth at pre-existing pores. The critical porosity level where the suppression of spall failure is first observed, as well as the spall location, is dependent on both the volume fraction and the size of the initially fabricated pores. In samples of 500 μm pore size, the suppression of spall failure is observed with as little as 1 vol. % porosity, while samples with smaller pores (200 μm) still experience spall-centered tensile stress dominated failure with higher levels (5 vol. %) of porosity. In the case of pore-centered microstructure-dominated failure, spall damage can occur but the spall plane is shifted toward the rear free surface, or more generally in areas further away from the region with pores. Highly heterogeneous deformation twinning, shear banding, grain rotation, and cracking are observed in the vicinity of pre-existing pores and expected spall failure sites.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Integrated Multi-Scale Data Analytics and Machine Learning for the Distribution Grid

We consider the field of machine learning and where it is both useful, and not useful, for the distribution grid and buildings interface. While analytics, in general, is a growing field of interest, and often seen as the golden goose in the burgeoning distribution grid industry, its application is often limited by communications infrastructure, or lack of a focused technical application. Overall, the linkage of analytics to purposeful application in the grid space has been limited. In this paper we consider the field of machine learning as a subset of analytical techniques, and discuss its ability and limitations to enable the future distribution grid. To that end, we also consider the potential for mixing distributed and centralized analytics and the pros and cons of these approaches. There is an exponentially expanding volume of measured data being generated on the distribution grid, which, with appropriate application of analytics, may be transformed into intelligible, actionable information that can be provided to the right actors - such as grid and building operators, at the appropriate time to enhance grid or building resilience, efficiency, and operations against various metrics or goals - such as total carbon reduction or other economic benefit to customers. While some basic analysis into these data streams can provide a wealth of information, computational and human boundaries on performing the analysis are becoming significant, with more data and multi-objective concerns. Efficient applications of analysis and the machine learning field are being considered in the loop. This paper describes benefits and limits of present machine-learning applications for use on the grid and presents a series of case studies that illustrate the potential benefits of developing advanced local multi-variate analytics machine-learning-based applications.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

GridDS: Data Science Toolkit for Energy Grid Data

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the demand for energy is expected to increase 50% by the year 20501. While energy standards, such as the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) Standard 1547, (Basso 2015) and monitoring with wide area management systems (WAMS) (Liu 2017, Zhou 2016) have enabled large scale data collection and storage, the application of this data in mitigating costs associated with increased consumer demand is an ongoing focus for energy research. This ubiquitous data collection presents a promising opportunity for machine learning and data science to improve efficiency of distributed energy resources (DERs). The GridDS software toolkit is designed to leverage advanced metering infrastructure (AMI), outage management systems data (OMS), Supervisory control Data Acquisition (SCADA), and geographic information systems (GIS) to forecast future energy demands and detect incipient grid failures. GridDS is a python software library designed to be modular and generalizable to data recorded by DERs. In adapting to disparate datasets recorded by various WAMS, GridDS provides a range of unique functionality not presently implemented in current WAMS which have highly specific software infrastructure by design. GridDS functionality ranges from data specification and preparation, to training and validation for state of the art machine learning, to interactive data visualization. For data intake, GridDS combines: Pandera: a library for creating data specifications. TimeScaleDB: a postgresSQL database infrastructure for efficient storage of timeseries data. Dataset class: A custom dataset class / interface that ensures modularity between a range of synthetic and live recorded datasets. Is

Ladd, Alexander↗

Concurrent multiscale modeling of microstructural effects on localization behavior in finite deformation solid mechanics

The heterogeneity in mechanical fields introduced by microstructure plays a critical role in the localization of deformation. In order to resolve this incipient stage of failure, it is therefore necessary to incorporate microstructure with sufficient resolution. On the other hand, computational limitations make it infeasible to represent the microstructure in the entire domain at the component scale. Here, the authors demonstrate the use of concurrent multiscale modeling to incorporate explicit, finely resolved microstructure in a critical region while resolving the smoother mechanical fields outside this region with a coarser discretization to limit computational cost. The microstructural physics is modeled with a high-fidelity model that incorporates anisotropic crystal elasticity and rate-dependent crystal plasticity to simulate the behavior of a stainless steel alloy. The component-scale material behavior is treated with a lower fidelity model incorporating isotropic linear elasticity and rate-independent J 2 plasticity. The microstructural and component scale subdomains are modeled concurrently, with coupling via the Schwarz alternating method, which solves boundary-value problems in each subdomain separately and transfers solution information between subdomains via Dirichlet boundary conditions. In this study, the framework is applied to model incipient localization in tensile specimens during necking.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Investigation of Multiple Data Streams for Gearbox Bearing Fault Prediction Through Machine-Learning Models

Operations and maintenance (O&M) cost of wind plant accounts up to 30% of total energy cost, which can be reduced through continuous monitoring and successfully detecting incipient wind turbine failures. To accomplish this, condition monitoring and predictive maintenance systems are being implemented in wind industry to support O&M decision making. A wide range of approaches for condition monitoring and fault prediction have been developed. These approaches generally use historical data of wind turbines collected by Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) system to identify patterns that lead to failure. These SCADA data show the overall condition of a wind turbine and can be leveraged to detect when the turbine's performance is degrading and to identify if a fault is developing. However, it becomes challenging to predict the failure of a specific wind turbine gearbox bearing, because the SCADA data are often not directly linked to the component. To bridge the gap, we have investigated features calculated from SCADA data using physics-based models and the gearbox design over the years. The damaged metric we used in the physics domain is frictional energy. Combining these physics domain variables with SCADA data as inputs to various machine learning models for gearbox bearing fault prediction, we have demonstrated the benefits of leveraging both physics and data domain models. It was an attempt to improve frictional-energy-based damage metric by adding data domain inputs, as we had learned that the frictional-energy-based damage metric alone is not sufficient to single out failed bearings from healthy. As condition monitoring data (either vibration or oil debris data) has become available at more and more wind plants, we would like to evaluate whether by adding the condition monitoring data can help further improve the performance of frictional-energy-based damage metric for gearbox bearing fault prediction. Both cases by modeling through various machine learning algorithms are discussed in this study along with some observations.

fault prediction↗

Application and Certification of Comparative Vacuum Monitoring Sensors for Structural Health Monitoring of 737 Wing Box Fittings

Multi-site fatigue damage, hidden cracks in hard-to-reach locations, disbonded joints, erosion, impact, and corrosion are among the major flaws encountered in today's extensive fleet of aging aircraft and space vehicles. The use of in-situ sensors for real-time health monitoring of aircraft structures are a viable option to overcome inspection impediments stemming from accessibility limitations, complex geometries, and the location and depth of hidden damage. Reliable, structural health monitoring systems can automatically process data, assess structural condition, and signal the need for human intervention. Prevention of unexpected flaw growth and structural failure can be improved if on-board health monitoring systems are used to continuously assess structural integrity. Such systems are able to detect incipient damage before catastrophic failures occurs. Condition-based maintenance practices could be substituted for the current time-based maintenance approach. Other advantages of on-board distributed sensor systems are that they can eliminate costly, and potentially damaging, disassembly, improve sensitivity by producing optimum placement of sensors and decrease maintenance costs by eliminating more time- consuming manual inspections. This report presents a Sandia Labs-aviation industry effort to move SHM into routine use for aircraft maintenance. This program addressed formal SHM technology validation and certification issues so that the full spectrum of concerns, including design, deployment, performance and certification were appropriately considered. The Airworthiness Assurance NDI Validation Center (AANC) at Sandia Labs, in conjunction with Boeing, Delta Air Lines, Structural Monitoring Systems Ltd., Anodyne Electronics Manufacturing Corp. and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) carried out a certification program to formally introduce Comparative Vacuum Monitoring (CVM) as a structural health monitoring solution to a specific aircraft wing box application. Validation tasks were designed to address the SHM equipment, the health monitoring task, the resolution required, the sensor interrogation procedures, the conditions under which the monitoring will occur, the potential inspector population, adoption of CVM into an airline maintenance program and the document revisions necessary to allow for routine use of CVM as an alternate means of performing periodic structural inspects. To carry out the validation process, knowledge of aircraft maintenance practices was coupled with an unbiased, independent evaluation. Sandia Labs designed, implemented, and analyzed the results from a focused and statistically-relevant experimental effort to quantify the reliability of the CVM system applied to the Boeing 737 Wing Box fitting application. All factors that affect SHM sensitivity were included in this program: flaw size, shape, orientation and location relative to the sensors, as well as operational and environmental variables. Statistical methods were applied to performance data to derive Probability of Detection (POD) values for CVM sensors in a manner that agrees with current nondestructive inspection (NDI) validation requirements and also is acceptable to both the aviation industry and regulatory bodies. This report presents the use of several different statistical methods, some of them adapted from NDI performance assessments and some proposed to address the unique nature of damage detection via SHM systems, and discusses how they can converge to produce a confident quantification of SHM performance An important element in developing SHM validation processes is a clear understanding of the regulatory measures needed to adopt SHM solutions along with the knowledge of the structural and maintenance characteristics that may impact the operational performance of an SHM system. This report describes the major elements of an SHM validation approach and differentiates the SHM elements from those found in NDI validation. The activities conducted in this program demonstrated the feasibility of routine SHM usage in general and CVM in particular for the application selected. They also helped establish an optimum OEM-airline-regulator process and determined how to safely adopt SHM solutions. This formal SHM validation will allow aircraft manufacturers and airlines to confidently make informed decisions about the proper utilization of CVM technology. It will also streamline the regulatory actions and formal certification measures needed to assure the safe application of SHM solutions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Incipient Melting in AA7075

Incipient melting is a phenomenon that can occur in aluminum alloys where solute rich areas, such as grain boundaries, can melt before the rest of the material; incipient melting can degrade mechanical and corrosion properties and is irreversible, resulting in material scrapping. After detecting indications of incipient melting as the cause of failure in 7075 aluminum alloy parts (AA7075), a study was launched to determine threshold temperature for incipient melting. Samples of AA7075 were solution annealed using temperatures ranging from 870-1090F. A hardness profile was developed to demonstrate the loss of mechanical properties through the progression of incipient melting. Additionally, Zeiss software Zen Core Intellesis was utilized to more accurately quantify the changes in microstructural properties as AA7075 surpassed the onset of incipient melting. The results from this study were compared with previous AA7075 material that demonstrated incipient melting.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Three Sheet Al alloy assembly for automotive application

An update on joint characterization of three sheet friction stir lap welds (FSLW) in three aluminum alloys (7xxx, 5xxx, and 6xxx) for automotive assembly application is presented. Welding speed of 0.3-2.9m/min was used with pin length >5mm with the aim to reduce upturn hooking on the retreating side and avoid wormhole defect on the advancing side. Joints were also made in to enable T peel and U peel testing. Stitch welds were used to understand effects of weld length and ramp length on T peel performance. Hat sections were joined for 3-point bending and axial crush testing and tested with promising results. Several key issues that require further investigations are identified including flash management near the trim edge, weld quality with limited clamping, tool failures at speeds greater than 0.5m/min, and propensity of incipient melting for 7xxx stack-up.

Upadhyay, Piyush↗

Understanding, Predicting, and Mitigating Catastrophic Shorts for Improved OLED Lighting Panel Reliability (Final Report)

Catastrophic OLED lighting panel failure due to electrical shorting was a significant reliability challenge facing the industry. The goal of this program was to develop a basic scientific understanding of how incipient shorts in an OLED originate and grow to a catastrophic level, and to develop mitigation strategies that enable the industry to reach the DOE target of 0.01% failure rate. We accomplished this goal, identifying the origin of shorts, understanding how the evolve over time, and ultimately identifying a mitigation strategy that was implemented by our industry partner and demonstrated to completely eliminate catastrophic shorts in production OLED panels. We identified two general classes of panel defect, termed bright spots and hot spots, that respectively originate from indium-tin-oxide agglomerations and microscale organic semiconductor dust particles on the substrate. The former are largely benign whereas the latter can lead to local shunts that grow over time and cause catastrophic failure. We understand the growth process as a self-reinforcing cycle, where shunt-induced heating volatilizes the surrounding organic semiconductor, which in turn expands the shunt and leads to even more heating. Based on these results, we identified several practical strategies to arrest the growth of early-stage shorts or prevent them entirely. These results will reduce the cost and improve the reliability of OLED lighting.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Dynamic properties of 316l stainless steel repaired using electron beam additive manufacturing

Additive manufacturing has the potential to be used for repair of high-value parts, but the strength and integrity of such repaired parts, especially under dynamic loading, in still unknown. This work presents the results of high strain-rate dynamic testing of additively repaired stainless steel samples. The 316L samples were intentionally damaged and subsequently repaired with 308L stainless steel wire using electron beam additive manufacturing. The repaired samples were subjected to gas-gun impact testing to induce incipient damage and determine the role played by the repaired region in dictating damage and failure. The results show the following: 1) the equation of state of the repaired region is comparable to the original material as shown by the unchanged spall plane location, 2) the deformation behavior is similar to the original material as shown by the similar Hugoniot Elastic limit, 3) the spall strength of the repaired region is slightly higher than the original material due to varying grain size, and 4) the damage morphology in the repaired region is different and involves a high rate of void coalescence. In conclusion, despite these minor differences in the spall strength and the damage morphology, the overall dynamic response of the original material and repaired samples is similar suggesting that AM is a promising approach for repairing high-value components.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Effect of grain size on damage and failure in two-phase materials: Homogenized CuPb

It is well known that spall failure strongly depends on the microstructure of a material. There have been numerous studies to study the effect of grain size on the overall spall strength and the total amount of damage in single element metals like copper. However, such systematic studies remain rare in two-phase materials and alloys. In this work, two incipient spall experiments were performed on a Cu–1%Pb alloy to understand the effect of grain size on the damage and failure in a two-phase material. Overall, these results showed that even though the spall strength did not change as a function of grain size, there were significant differences in the total amount of damage as a function of grain size. A clear increase in the total damage present in the material was seen as the grain size was increased from 32 to either 70 or 75 μm in either of the experiments. Furthermore, this difference was attributed to variations in the void growth rate as the grain size was increased.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Explainable machine learning for incipient anomaly detection in compact molten salt heat exchanger with overlapping feature distributions

High-temperature molten salt-cooled reactors (MSCRs) are a promising next-generation nuclear technology option, offering efficient power conversion and inherent safety features. However, the reliability of these systems depends on the robust operation of heat exchangers (HXs), which are susceptible to failure due to temperature gradients and channel plugging caused by fluid freezing. Conventional monitoring methods, relying on inlet and outlet measurements, lack the spatial resolution needed to detect early-stage faults. We propose a novel design of a compact salt-to-salt matrix-type HX design consisting of interleaved arrays of parallel tubes, with integrated synthetic fiber optic distributed temperature sensing (DTS) to enable localized detection of incipient faults. To evaluate performance of this design, we generate high-fidelity synthetic data using heat transfer computational modeling to simulate channel plugging, and introduce sensor noise for realistic modeling of measurements. The dataset comprises of 97% normal operation and 3% anomaly cases, with each anomaly class representing 1% of the data. These early anomalies result in overlapping temperature profiles between normal and faulty channels, producing a non-separable dataset that challenges traditional classification techniques. We benchmark eight supervised machine learning (ML) models and demonstrate that XGBoost achieves the highest performance. To improve transparency, we develop an explainability framework combining Shapley values and partially ordered sets (POSETs) to quantify and structurally analyze feature importance. This approach identifies both dominant predictors and ambiguous feature relationships, enhancing trust and interpretability. Our results highlight the potential of combining DTS and explainable ML with intelligent feature selection to improve predictive maintenance and ensure operational resilience in advanced nuclear systems.

Prantikos, Konstantinos [Argonne National Laborato↗

In-field strain and temperature measurements in a (RE)Ba 2 Cu 3 O 7–x coil via Rayleigh-backscattering interrogated optical fibers

(RE)Ba 2 Cu 3 O 7-x (REBCO) conductors have overcome technical challenges related to manufacturing quality, length homogeneity, scale-up of piece-length, and joints. There is one remaining technical challenge, however, which is common to all high temperature superconductors and lies in effective detection of failure to prevent material degradation. An innovative technique based on optical fibers interrogated by Rayleigh backscattering has been shown to have advantages over voltage taps at detecting incipient faults. Prior work has experimentally demonstrated the technique in several implementation scenarios, including direct integration of optical fibers into superconducting conductors and cables to create a class of ‘SMART’ conductors and cables that are able to monitor their own health. In this paper, the magnet monitoring technique based on Rayleigh backscattering interrogated optical fibers has been experimentally studied in a model coil subject to external magnetic field, where different fiber integration methods are used to increase selectivity of the fiber sensor to temperature. Results show that the spectral shift displays different features during strain and thermal transients. The implications of the results in terms of potential and limitations of each sensor as well as strain-temperature decoupling are discussed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Nanoscale conditions for ductile void nucleation in copper: vacancy condensation and the growth-limited microstructural state

Ductile rupture or tearing usually involves structural degradation from the nucleation and growth of voids and their coalescence into cracks. Although some materials contain preexisting pores, the first step in failure is often the formation of voids. Because this step can govern both the failure strain and the fracture mechanism, it is critical to understand the mechanisms of void nucleation and the enabling microstructural configurations which give rise to nucleation. To understand the role of dislocations during void nucleation, the present study presents ex-situ cross-sectional observations of interrupted deformation experiments revealing incipient, subsurface voids in a copper material containing copper oxide inclusions. The local microstructural state was evaluated using electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD), electron channeling contrast (ECC), transmission electron microscopy (TEM), and transmission kikuchi diffraction (TKD). Surprisingly, before substantial growth and coalescence had occurred, the deformation process had resulted in the nucleation of a high density of nanoscale (≈50 μm) voids in the deeply deformed neck region where strains were on the order of 1.5. Such a proliferation of nucleation sites immediately suggests that the rupture process is limited by void growth, not nucleation. With regard to void growth, analysis of more than 20 microscale voids suggests that dislocation boundaries facilitate the growth process. The present observations call into question prior assumptions on the role of dislocation pile-ups and provide new context for the formulation of revised ductile rupture models. While the focus of this study is on damage accumulation in a highly ductile metal containing small, well-dispersed particles, these results are also applicable to understanding void nucleation in engineering alloys.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗