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DOE OSTI2015

Graphical methods for the sensitivity analysis in discriminant analysis

Similar to regression, many measures to detect influential data points in discriminant analysis have been developed. Many follow similar principles as the diagnostic measures used in linear regression in the context of discriminant analysis. Here we focus on the impact on the predicted classification posterior probability when a data point is omitted. The new method is intuitive and easily interpretative compared to existing methods. We also propose a graphical display to show the individual movement of the posterior probability of other data points when a specific data point is omitted. This enables the summaries to capture the overall pattern of the change.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Electrochemical Response of Alkaline Batteries Subject to Quasi-Static and Dynamic Loading

We report electrochemical changes were successfully monitored through the coupling of external loading, electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS), and distribution of relaxation times (DRT) analysis. The development of the testing methods allows for detailed observation of changes due to mechanical loading and distinguishes responses between different cell geometries. Comparison of the force vs displacement, voltage vs displacement, and distribution of relaxation times plots to the different cell geometries display failure modes specific to geometry as well as the impact of different loading profiles. Numerical modeling confirmed the movement within individual cells and predicted locations with the most deformation based on the external loading condition applied. The results gathered from combining mechanical loading, electrochemical response, and numerical modeling, yield a viable approach to establishing an improved understanding of the effects of mechanical loading on the electrochemical response of multiple battery geometries and the methods herein may be extensible to additional battery chemistries.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

NASA NTRS1973

California coast nearshore processes study

The author has identified the following significant results. This report contains the techniques used for enhancing and analyzing nearshore processes from ERTS-1 and aircraft data. Four California nearshore sites are used as test cells including the San Francisco area, Monterey Bay, Santa Barbara Channel, and Los Angeles area. Techniques used for analyzing the test cells included direct photographic processing, computer compatible tape gain change enhancement, discrete point density analysis and plotting, and densitometer enhancement. Using these methods, it is possible to measure the seaward extent of the suspended sediment transport and to differentiate sediment levels within the individual sediment lobes. The movement of riverine discharged suspensates and coastal sediments by currents was an intricate part of the sediment transport analysis. The larger estuaries in the test cell areas were also studied for flushing characteristics.

Pirie, D. M.↗

DOE OSTI2020

NGEE Arctic Soil Micro-warming Experiment Temperature Profiles, Council Road Mile Marker 71, Seward Peninsula, Alaska, 2017-2019

The reported soil temperature profile measurements (24 locations - 2 probes with 5 and 6 thermistors, respectively - Fig. 1 and Fig. 2) were initiated as part of a soil micro-warming experiment at the Council Road Mile Marker 71 Site (CN_MM71) in September 2017. From 2017 through August 2019, these were measurements of ambient pre-treatment plot conditions. This tussock tundra site (with underlying permafrost) experiences annual frost heaving that causes a vertical movement of the ground surface, hence causing some of the upper most temperature thermistors to be at surface level or above ground and recorded therefore air temperatures near the surface and not below ground soil temperature (see section on Quality Assurance). After August 2019, these measurements ended in preparation for transitioning to the experimental warming of individual plots. The reported temperature data are nominally 3-hour averages of measurements made at varying frequencies (3-hour maximum) with frequencies that depended upon power (solar) availability to operate the sensors (see section in documentation on Methods). The number of values and the standard deviation for each 3-hour average (where appropriate) are also provided. These measurements are located near the NGEE-Arctic CO2 and CH4 eddy covariance tower at the Council Road Site (US-NGC: NGEE Arctic Council, https://ameriflux.lbl.gov/sites/siteinfo/US-NGC#overview) and auxiliary data at https://doi.org/10.5440/1526749. This dataset contains four *.csv files and one *.pdf file. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1985

Effect of heliotropism on the bidirectional reflectance of irrigated cotton

The dynamic behavior of cotton leaves is described using gyroscopic coordinates. Angular movements represented as pitching, rolling, and yawing are used to follow the movement of leaf normals and their instantaneous relationships to the sun on an individual basis. A sensitivity analysis establishes that the angle between a leaf normal and the sun is most affected by changes in pitch and roll. Plots of the phase angle gamma averaged by quadrant show the pronounced heliotropic behavior of cotton leaves. Plots of pitch versus roll averaged by quadrant demonstrate the differential behavior of cotton leaves relative to the position of the sun. These results are used to interpret sections taken from bidirectional reflectance curves obtained using 0.57-0.69 micron band in terms of the evolution of gamma from sunrise until noon. The measured and experimental values of gamma are in reasonable agreement. Forescattered and backscattered exitances are observed to have distinct leaf normal directions.

Schutt, J. B.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Smooth Pursuit Saccade Amplitude Modulation During Exposure to Microgravity

Russian investigators have reported changes in pursuit tracking of a vertically moving point stimulus during space flight. Early in microgravity, changes were manifested by decreased eye movement amplitude (undershooting) and the appearance of correction saccades. As the flight progressed, pursuit of the moving point stimulus deteriorated while associated saccadic movements were unchanged. Immediately postflight there was an improved execution of active head movements indicating that the deficiencies in pursuit function noted in microgravity may be of central origin. In contrast, tests of two cosmonauts showed that horizontal and vertical smooth pursuit were unchanged inflight. However, results of corresponding saccadic tasks showed a tendency toward the overshooting of a horizontal target early inflight with high accuracy developing later inflight, accompanied by an increased saccade velocity and a trend toward decreased saccade latency. Based on these equivocal results, we have further investigated the effects of space flight on the smooth pursuit mechanism during and after short duration flight, and postflight on returning MIR crewmembers. Sinusoidal target movement was presented horizontally at frequencies of 0.33 and 1.0 Hz. Subjects were asked to perform two trials for each stimulus combination: (1) moving eyes-only (EO) and (2) moving eyes and head (EH) with the target motion. Peak amplitude was 30 deg for 0.33 Hz trials and 15 deg for the 1.0 Hz trials. The relationship between saccade amplitude and peak velocity were plotted as a main sequence for each phase of flight, and linear regression analysis allowed us to determine the slope of each main sequence plot. The linear slopes were then combined for each flight phase for each individual subject. The main sequence for both EO and EH trials at both the 0.33 and 1.0 Hz frequencies during flight for the short duration flyers showed a reduction in saccade velocity and amplitude when compared to the preflight main sequence . This difference in the regression slopes between flight phase, head/eye condition (EO or EH), and pursuit target frequency was observed across all subjects (statistically significant at the p<0.02, df= 2). It is interesting to note that postflight for the short duration flyers there was an immediate recovery to the preflight main sequence across all trials. There were no significant differences observed between the preflight slopes for either head movement condition (EO vs. EH). When the immediate postflight (R+O) regression slopes were compared with the preflight slopes, there was a tendency (not significant) for both saccade amplitude and peak velocity to increase during the postflight testing. This tendency had vanished by R+ 1. Of particular interest was the redistribution of saccades during the latter stages of the flight and immediately postflight in the EO condition. At the 1.0 Hz frequency the saccades tended to be clustered near the lowest target velocity. It was also interesting to note that gaze performance (eye in skull + head in space) was consistently better during the EH condition; a finding also observed by our Russian colleagues. As the results of the long duration flight become available we expect that they will not only show that postflight effects will be similar to those observed during the short duration flights, but will also last for a greater period of time following flight. It is not clear what mechanism is responsible for the decreased peak saccadic velocity during flight unless the change is related to the control of retinal slip. For example, it is possible that saccades will tend to initially undershoot their targets by a small percentage and these saccades are then followed, if vision is available, by a small augmenting corrective saccade. It has been postulated that the functional significance of this undershooting tendency is to maintain the spatial representation of the target on the same side of the fovea (as opposedo racing across the fovea) and hence in the same cerebral hemisphere that initiated the primary saccade thus minimizing delays caused by an intra-hemispheric transfer of information . One could also speculate that with saccade velocities greater than normal, additional corrective saccades would be required to bring the target back on the fovea. A less plausible explanation of our findings could be fatigue. Yet it seems unlikely that our subjects would show lower velocities on all inflight test days while showing increased saccade velocities immediately following space flight where fatigue is usually the greatest. Finally, the redistribution effect noted late inflight is likely caused by adaptive changes. Overall, corrective saccades appeared to be used in maintaining gaze on target; reducing retinal slip and assisting space travelers in maintaining clear vision throughout the different phases of the space flight.

Reschke, M. F.↗

NASA NTRS1973

A study of morphology, provenance, and movement of desert sand seas in Africa, Asia, and Australia

A description and classification of major types of sand seas on the basis of morphological pattern and lineation are discussed. The steps involved in analyzing the patterns of deposits on ERTS-1 imagery, where the visible forms are mostly dune complexes rather than individual dunes are outlined. After completion of thematic maps portraying the pattern and lineation of the sand bodies, data on directions and intensity of prevailing and other winds are plotted on corresponding bases, as a preliminary to determination of internal structures through ground truth.

Mckee, E. D.↗

DOE OSTI2016

TU-FG-201-05: Varian MPC as a Statistical Process Control Tool

Purpose: Quality assurance in radiotherapy requires the measurement of various machine parameters to ensure they remain within permitted values over time. In Truebeam release 2.0 the Machine Performance Check (MPC) was released allowing beam output and machine axis movements to be assessed in a single test. We aim to evaluate the Varian Machine Performance Check (MPC) as a tool for Statistical Process Control (SPC). Methods: Varian’s MPC tool was used on three Truebeam and one EDGE linac for a period of approximately one year. MPC was commissioned against independent systems. After this period the data were reviewed to determine whether or not the MPC was useful as a process control tool. Analyses on individual tests were analysed using Shewhart control plots, using Matlab for analysis. Principal component analysis was used to determine if a multivariate model was of any benefit in analysing the data. Results: Control charts were found to be useful to detect beam output changes, worn T-nuts and jaw calibration issues. Upper and lower control limits were defined at the 95% level. Multivariate SPC was performed using Principal Component Analysis. We found little evidence of clustering beyond that which might be naively expected such as beam uniformity and beam output. Whilst this makes multivariate analysis of little use it suggests that each test is giving independent information. Conclusion: The variety of independent parameters tested in MPC makes it a sensitive tool for routine machine QA. We have determined that using control charts in our QA programme would rapidly detect changes in machine performance. The use of control charts allows large quantities of tests to be performed on all linacs without visual inspection of all results. The use of control limits alerts users when data are inconsistent with previous measurements before they become out of specification. A. Carver has received a speaker’s honorarium from Varian.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

NASA NTRS1986

The initiation of grain movement by wind

When air blows across the surface of dry, loose sand, a critical shear velocity must be achieved to inititate motion. Since most natural sediments consist of a range of grain sizes, fluid threshold for any sediment cannot really be defined by a finite value but should be viewed as a threshold range which is a function of the mean size, sorting, and packing of the sediment. In order to investigate the initiation of particle movement by wind, a series of wind tunnel tests were carried out on a range of screened sands and commercially available glass beads of differing sizes, sorting, and shape characteristics. In addition, individual samples of the glass beads were mixed to produce rather poorly sorted bimodal distributions. Test results suggest that when velocity is slowly increased over the sediment surface the smaller or more exposed grains are first entrained by the fluid drag of the air either in surface creep or in saltation. As velocity continues to rise, the larger more protected grains may also be moved by fluid drag. The data also indicate that predicted values based on the modified Bagnold equation fall within the range of threshold values defined by the transition section of the grain movement/shear velocity plots. Moreover, the predicted values are very similar to the threshold values derived for the point maximum inflection on the curves.

Nickling, W. G.↗

NASA NTRS1987

The initiation of grain movement by wind

When air blows across the surface of dry, loose sand, a critical shear velocity must be achieved to initiate motion. Since most natural sediments consist of a range of grain sizes, fluid threshold for any sediment cannot really be defined by a finite value but should be viewed as a threshold range which is a function of the mean size, sorting, and packing of the sediment. In order to investigate the initiation of particle movement by wind, a series of wind tunnel tests were carried out on a range of screened sands and commercially available glass beads of differing size, sorting, and shape characteristics. In addition, individual samples of the glass beads were mixed to produce rather poorly sorted bimodal distributions. Test results suggest the when velocity is slowly increased over the sediment surface the smaller or more exposed grains are first engrained by the fluid drag of the air either in surface creep or in saltation. As velocity continues to rise, the larger more protected grains may also be moved by fluid drag. The data also indicate that predicted values based on the modified Bagnold equation fall within the range of threshold values defined by the transition section of the grain movement/shear velocity plots. Moreover, the predicted values are very similar to the threshold values derived for the point maximum inflection on the curves.

Nickling, William G.↗

DOE OSTI2024

SPRUCE Xylem Native Embolism and Leaf Traits of Picea mariana and Larix laricina, 2019

This data set contains measurements of native embolism in branch xylem and associated branch and leaf traits from Picea mariana (Black Spruce) and Larix laricina (Tamarack) from September-October 2019 at the SPRUCE experiment (Hanson et al. 2017). Data are presented in one comma-separated (*.csv) file. Native embolism, a measurement of in-situ embolism in the xylem tissue that blocks water movement, measurements were conducted at the end of the growing season on cut branches using the hydraulic pipette method (see Peters et al. 2023 for full method). In short, branch segments were connected to hydraulic apprentice and flow rates of perfusion liquid were measured using graduated pipettes and stopwatch. After initial conductance measurements, branch segments were flushed using vacuum infiltration and hydraulic conductance was remeasured to calculate the percent loss in conductance due to embolism (PLC). Three branch segments (distal, middle, and proximal) were measured from each branch representing different diameters size classes. This dataset also contains leaf area associated with each measured branch segment, calculate leaf mass per area (LMA), sapwood specific conductivity (Ks), leaf area specific conductivity (Kl) and the sapwood area to leaf area ratio (Huber value). Measurements were made on mature trees from all ten treatment enclosures. One branch from each of five trees per species were used from each enclosure where available. Some plots do not contain five individual Larix laricina, in which case all available trees were sampled. All measurements were conducted in late September/early October 2019, at the end of growing season but before Larix laricina needle senescence. There are 10 experimental plots at SPRUCE: five temperature treatments (+0, +2.25, +4.5, +6.75, +9°C) at ambient CO2, and the same five temperature treatments at elevated CO2 (+500 ppm). These data were collected after the treatments had been running in full for three years, meaning much of the material measured was grown under treatment conditions.

Huber value↗

DOE OSTI2021

Numerical Simulations of Geologic Storage Reservoir Management to Support Risk Mitigation Evaluation

This report provides a detailed description of a set of numerical simulations that represent reservoir behavior over time in response to different operational decision scenarios for detection of potential leakage and reduction or avoidance of leakage impact at a hypothetical geological carbon storage (GCS) site. These simulations serve as the basis for a series of GCS leakage risk forecasts that are to be developed using the National Risk Assessment Partnership’s Open-Source Integrated Assessment Model (NRAP-Open-IAM), and a demonstration of a simple decision support workflow for evaluation of mitigation strategies based on results of those system model forecasts. This risk assessment and decision support study is forthcoming. Four injection scenarios were considered: a constant rate carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) injection case (base case), a case with CO 2 injection rate adjustment, a case with early termination of injection operations, and a case with brine extraction. CO 2 injection operations were controlled to ensure that the pressure transient remains below the defined manageable reservoir fracture pressure, with consideration shown to hypothetical locations within the modeled spatial domain where the overburden was weaker and lower transient pressure increases were allowable. Additionally, a brine extraction alternative was considered as a reservoir management and risk mitigation option to reduce reservoir pressure, steer the plume away from any hypothetical geohazard such as fault as needed, and enhance storage capacity. Such operational actions contribute to risk management overtime. This study explores the potential utility of reservoir management for risk reduction at GCS sites. This study shows that the injection design may modify the time to CO 2 breakthrough at a legacy well; in particular, these results show that brine extraction can add value for mitigating risk both by delaying leakage and reducing pressure build-up. For the scenario considered, both pressure plots and pressure distributions demonstrate that pressure build-up was decreased by 3% with brine extraction. Additionally, extraction of brine afforded enhancement of CO 2 storage capacity by 5% compared to the base case. These findings suggest that brine extraction has substantial potential to steer the risk-related reservoir effects away from known geohazards (e.g., faults and legacy wells) by conducting pressure transient effects and CO 2 plume movement toward the production well. Injection rate adjustment scenarios considered in this study show potential value for managing both reservoir pressure transients and CO 2 plume behavior. Operational actions for reducing injection and/or early termination of injection (as compared to the base case), however, require careful design; tailoring both the extent and timing of injection rate adjustment over the injection and post-injection operational period must be thoroughly planned to balance maximizing storage and minimizing subsurface environmental risk. The study also gives preliminary consideration to the effectiveness that monitoring strategy may play in providing useful information to inform reservoir management decisions for risk reduction. Two types of monitoring were considered: 1) pressure build-up or pressure transient; and 2) potential leakage detection from a CO 2 mass or plume. Four hypothetical legacy wells, two plugged and two abandoned, were placed in the model domain. Monitoring along these wells was measured over time in individual stacked reservoir formations and shale formations to support risk mitigation decisions, especially operational decisions that assisted in risk reduction. These simulations will serve as the basis for a series of GCS leakage risk forecasts that are to be developed using NRAP’s Open-IAM, and demonstration of a simple decision support workflow for comparative assessment of mitigation alternatives based on results of those system model forecasts. This risk assessment and decision support study is forthcoming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2007

Exploring and Visualizing A-Train Instrument Data

The succession of US and international satellites that follow each other in close succession, known as the A-Train, affords an opportunity to atmospheric researchers that no single platform could provide: Increasing the number of observations at any given geographic location.. . a more complete "virtual science platform". However, vertically and horizontally, co-registering and regridding datasets from independently developed missions, Aqua, Calipso, Cloudsat, Parasol, and Aura, so that they can be inter-compared can be daunting to some, and may be repeated by many. Scientists will individually spend much of their time and resources acquiring A-Train datasets of interest residing at various locations, developing algorithms to match up and graph datasets along the A-Train track, and search through large amounts of data for areas and/or phenomena of interest. The aggregate amount of effort that can be expended on repeating pre-science tasks could climb into the tens of millions of dollars. The goal of the A-Train Data Depot (ATDD) is to enable free movement of remotely located A-Train data so that they are combined to create a consolidated vertical view of the Earth's Atmosphere along the A-Train tracks. The innovative approach of analyzing and visualizing atmospheric profiles along the platforms track (i.e., time) is accomplished by through the ATDDs Giovanni data analysis and visualization tool. Giovanni brings together data from Aqua (MODIS, AIRS, AMSR-E), Cloudsat (cloud profiling radar) and Calipso (CALIOP, IIR), as well as the Aura (OMI, MLS, HIRDLS, TES) to create a consolidated vertical view of the Earth's Atmosphere along the A-Train tracks. This easy to learn and use exploration tool will allow users to create vertical profiles of any desired A-Train dataset, for any given time of choice. This presentation shows the power of Giovanni by describing and illustrating how this tool facilitates and aids A-Train science and research. A web based display system Giovanni provides users with the capability of creating co-located profile images of temperature and humidity data from the MODIS, MLS and AIRS instruments for a user specified time and spatial area. In addition, Cloud and Aerosol profiles may also be displayed for the Cloudsat and Caliop instruments. The ability to modify horizontal and vertical axis range, data range and dynamic color range is also provided. Two dimensional strip plots of MODIS, AIRS, OM1 and POLDER parameters, co-located along the Cloudsat reference track, can also be plotted along with the Cloudsat cloud profiling data. Center swath pixels for the same parameters can also be shown as line plots overlaying the Cloudsat or Calipso profile images. Images and subsetted data produced in each analysis run may be downloaded. Users truly can explore and discover data specific to their needs prior to ever transferring data to their analysis tools.

Kempler, S.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Forecasting Sensorimotor Adaptability from Baseline Inter-Trial Correlations

One of the greatest challenges surrounding adaptation to the spaceflight environment is the large variability in symptoms, and corresponding functional impairments, from one crewmember to the next. This renders preflight training and countermeasure development difficult, as a "one-size-fits-all" approach is inappropriate. Therefore, it would be highly advantageous to know ahead of time which crewmembers might have more difficulty adjusting to the novel g-levels inherent to spaceflight. Such knowledge could guide individually customized countermeasures, which would enable more efficient use of crew time, both preflight and inflight, and provide better outcomes. The primary goal of this project is to look for a baseline performance metric that can forecast sensorimotor adaptability without exposure to an adaptive stimulus. We propose a novel hypothesis that considers baseline inter-trial correlations, the trial-to-trial fluctuations in motor performance, as a predictor of individual sensorimotor adaptive capabilities. To-date, a strong relationship has been found between baseline inter-trial correlations and adaptability in two oculomotor systems. For this project, we will explore an analogous predictive mechanism in the locomotion system. METHODS: Baseline Inter-trial Correlations: Inter-trial correlations specify the relationships among repeated trials of a given task that transpire as a consequence of correcting for previous performance errors over multiple timescales. We can quantify the strength of inter-trial correlations by measuring the decay of the autocorrelation function (ACF), which describes how rapidly information from past trials is "forgotten." Processes whose ACFs decay more slowly exhibit longer-term inter-trial correlations (longer memory processes), while processes whose ACFs decay more rapidly exhibit shorterterm inter-trial correlations (shorter memory processes). Longer-term correlations reflect low-frequency activity, which is more easily measured in the frequency domain. Therefore, we use the power spectrum (PS), which is the Fourier transform of the ACF, to describe our inter-trial correlations. The decay of the PS yields a straight line on a log-log frequency plot, which we quantify by Beta = - (slope of PS on log-log axes). Hence, Beta is a measure of the strength of inter- trial correlations in the baseline data. Larger Beta values are indicative of longer inter-trial correlations. Experimental Approach: We will begin by performing a retrospective analysis of treadmill-gait adaptation data previously collected by Dr. Bloomberg and colleagues. Specifically, we will quantify the strength of inter-trial correlations in the baseline step cadence and heart rate data and compare it to the locomotor adaptability performance results already described by these investigators. Incorporating these datasets will also allow us to explore the applicability of (and potential limitations surrounding) the use of Beta in forecasting physiological performance. We will also perform a new experiment, in which Beta will be derived from baseline data collected during over-ground (non-treadmill) walking, which will enable us to consider locomotor performance, through the parameter Beta, under the most functionallyrelevant, natural gait condition. This experiment will incorporate two baseline and five post-training over-ground locomotion tests to explore the consistency and potential adaptability of the Beta values themselves. HYPOTHESES: We hypothesize that the strength of baseline inter-trial correlations of step cadence and heart rate will relate to locomotor adaptability. Specifically, we anticipate that individuals who show weaker longer-term inter-trial correlations in baseline step cadence data will be the better adaptors, as step cadence can be modified in real-time (i.e., online corrections are an inherent property of the locomotor system; analogous to results observed in the VOR). Conversely, because heart rate is not altered mid-beat, we expect that individuals who demonstrate stronger longer-term correlations in heart rate will be the better adaptors (analogous to results observed in the saccadic system). CONCLUSIONS: At the conclusion of this project we hope to uncover a baseline predictor of locomotor adaptability. If our hypotheses hold true, our results will demonstrate that the temporal structure of baseline behavioral data contains important information that may aid in forecasting adaptive capacities. The ability to predict such adaptability in the sensorimotor system has significant implications for spaceflight, where astronauts must adjust their motor programs following a change in g-level to retain movement accuracy.

Beaton, K. H.↗