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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

A scalable variational method for estimating the latent infection-rate field of an outbreak

In this paper, we explore whether the infection-rate of a disease can serve as a robust monitoring variable in epidemiological surveillance algorithms. The infection-rate is dependent on population mixing patterns that do not vary erratically day-to-day; in contrast, daily case-counts used in contemporary surveillance algorithms are corrupted by reporting errors. The technical challenge lies in estimating the latent infection-rate from case-counts. Here we devise a Bayesian method to estimate the infection-rate across multiple adjoining areal units, and then use it, via an anomaly detector, to discern a change in epidemiological dynamics. We extend an existing model for estimating the infection-rate in an areal unit by incorporating a Markov random field model, so that we may estimate infection-rates across multiple areal units, while preserving spatial correlations observed in the epidemiological dynamics. To carry out the high-dimensional Bayesian inverse problem, we develop an implementation of mean-field variational inference specific to the infection model and integrate it with the random field model to incorporate correlations across counties. The method is tested on estimating the COVID-19 infection-rates across all 33 counties in New Mexico using data from the summer of 2020, and then employing them to detect the arrival of the Fall 2020 COVID-19 wave. We perform the detection using a temporal algorithm that is applied county-by-county. We also show how the infection-rate field can be used to cluster counties with similar epidemiological dynamics.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Genomic-based biosurveillance for avian influenza: whole genome sequencing from wild mallards sampled during autumn migration in 2022–2023 reveals a high co-infection rate on migration stopover site in Georgia

The Caucasus region, including Georgia, is an important intersection for migratory waterbirds, offering potential for avian influenza virus (AIV) transmission between populations from different geographic areas. In 2022 and 2023, wild ducks were sampled during autumn migration events in Georgia to study the genetic relationships and molecular characteristics of influenza strains. Sequencing and phylogenetic analysis were used to compare the sampled strains to reference sequences from Africa, Asia, and Europe, allowing assessment of genetic relationships and virus transmission between migratory birds. Protein language modeling identified potential co-infections. Of 225 duck samples, 128 tested positive for the influenza M gene. 55 influenza-positive samples underwent whole-genome sequencing, revealing significant diversity. Analysis of the hemagglutinin (HA) segment showed notable differences among subtypes. Most samples were H6N1 and H6N6, but co-infections with combinations like H6H3, N8N1, N6H9, N2N6, and H9H6/N1N2 were also identified. These findings demonstrate the high variability of influenza viruses in migratory waterbirds in Georgia, including a notable rate of co-infections. Some samples exhibited uncommon genetic characteristics compared to other strains from the same year, suggesting Georgia’s role as a mixing vessel for influenza viruses. This facilitates reassortment during co-infections and contributes to the genetic diversity observed across flyways.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Verifying infectious disease scenario planning for geographically diverse populations

In the face of the COVID-19 pandemic, the literature saw a spike in publications for epidemic models, and a renewed interest in capturing contact networks and geographic movement of populations. There remains a general lack of consensus in the modeling community around best practices for spatiotemporal epi-modeling, specifically as it pertains to the infection rate formulation and the underlying contact or mixing model. We mathematically verify several common modeling assumptions in the literature, to prove when certain choices can provide consistent results across different geographic resolutions, population densities and patterns, and mixing assumptions. The most common infection rate formulation, a computationally low cost per capita infection rate assumption, fails the consistency tests for heterogeneous populations and gravity-weighting assumptions. Future modeling efforts in spatiotemporal disease modeling should be wary of this limitation, particularly when working with more heterogeneous or sparse populations. Our results provide guidance for testing that a model preserves desirable properties even when model inputs mask potential problems due to symmetry or homogeneity. We also provide a recipe for performing this type of verification, strengthening decision support tools.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Detecting outbreaks using a spatial latent field

In this paper, we present a method for estimating the infection-rate of a disease as a spatial-temporal field. Our data comprises time-series case-counts of symptomatic patients in various areal units of a region. We extend an epidemiological model, originally designed for a single areal unit, to accommodate multiple units. The field estimation is framed within a Bayesian context, utilizing a parameterized Gaussian random field as a spatial prior. We apply an adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo method to sample the posterior distribution of the model parameters condition on COVID-19 case-count data from three adjacent counties in New Mexico, USA. Our results suggest that the correlation between epidemiological dynamics in neighboring regions helps regularize estimations in areas with high variance (i.e., poor quality) data. Using the calibrated epidemic model, we forecast the infection-rate over each areal unit and develop a simple anomaly detector to signal new epidemic waves. Our findings show that anomaly detector based on estimated infection-rates outperforms a conventional algorithm that relies solely on case-counts.

Safta, Cosmin [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-C↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modeling Within-Host Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 Infection: A Case Study in Ferrets

The pre-clinical development of antiviral agents involves experimental trials in animals and ferrets as an animal model for the study of SARS-CoV-2. Here, we used mathematical models and experimental data to characterize the within-host infection dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in ferrets. We also performed a global sensitivity analysis of model parameters impacting the characteristics of the viral infection. We provide estimates of the viral dynamic parameters in ferrets, such as the infection rate, the virus production rate, the infectious virus proportion, the infected cell death rate, the virus clearance rate, as well as other related characteristics, including the basic reproduction number, pre-peak infectious viral growth rate, post-peak infectious viral decay rate, pre-peak infectious viral doubling time, post-peak infectious virus half-life, and the target cell loss in the respiratory tract. These parameters and indices are not significantly different between animals infected with viral strains isolated from the environment and isolated from human hosts, indicating a potential for transmission from fomites. While the infection period in ferrets is relatively short, the similarity observed between our results and previous results in humans supports that ferrets can be an appropriate animal model for SARS-CoV-2 dynamics-related studies, and our estimates provide helpful information for such studies.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

How robust are estimates of key parameters in standard viral dynamic models?

Mathematical models of viral infection have been developed, fitted to data, and provide insight into disease pathogenesis for multiple agents that cause chronic infection, including HIV, hepatitis C, and B virus. However, for agents that cause acute infections or during the acute stage of agents that cause chronic infections, viral load data are often collected after symptoms develop, usually around or after the peak viral load. Consequently, we frequently lack data in the initial phase of viral growth, i.e., when pre-symptomatic transmission events occur. Missing data may make estimating the time of infection, the infectious period, and parameters in viral dynamic models, such as the cell infection rate, difficult. However, having extra information, such as the average time to peak viral load, may improve the robustness of the estimation. Here, we evaluated the robustness of estimates of key model parameters when viral load data prior to the viral load peak is missing, when we know the values of some parameters and/or the time from infection to peak viral load. Although estimates of the time of infection are sensitive to the quality and amount of available data, particularly pre-peak, other parameters important in understanding disease pathogenesis, such as the loss rate of infected cells, are less sensitive. Viral infectivity and the viral production rate are key parameters affecting the robustness of data fits. Fixing their values to literature values can help estimate the remaining model parameters when pre-peak data is missing or limited. We find a lack of data in the pre-peak growth phase underestimates the time to peak viral load by several days, leading to a shorter predicted growth phase. On the other hand, knowing the time of infection (e.g., from epidemiological data) and fixing it results in good estimates of dynamical parameters even in the absence of early data. While we provide ways to approximate model parameters in the absence of early viral load data, our results also suggest that these data, when available, are needed to estimate model parameters more precisely.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modeling airborne pathogen transport and transmission risks of SARS-CoV-2

An integrated modeling approach has been developed to better understand the relative impacts of different expiratory and environmental factors on airborne pathogen transport and transmission, motivated by the recent COVID-19 pandemic. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling was used to simulate spatial-temporal aerosol concentrations and quantified risks of exposure as a function of separation distance, exposure duration, environmental conditions (e.g., airflow/ventilation), and face coverings. The CFD results were combined with infectivity models to determine probability of infection, which is a function of the spatial-temporal aerosol concentrations, viral load, infectivity rate, viral viability, lung-deposition probability, and inhalation rate. Uncertainty distributions were determined for these parameters from the literature. Probabilistic analyses were performed to determine cumulative distributions of infection probabilities and to determine the most important parameters impacting transmission. This modeling approach has relevance to both pathogen and pollutant dispersion from expelled aerosol plumes.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Host population diversity as a driver of viral infection cycle in wild populations of green sulfur bacteria with long standing virus-host interactions

Abstract Temperate phages are viruses of bacteria that can establish two types of infection: a lysogenic infection in which the virus replicates with the host cell without producing virions, and a lytic infection where the host cell is eventually destroyed, and new virions are released. While both lytic and lysogenic infections are routinely observed in the environment, the ecological and evolutionary processes regulating these viral dynamics are still not well understood, especially for uncultivated virus-host pairs. Here, we characterized the long-term dynamics of uncultivated viruses infecting green sulfur bacteria (GSB) in a model freshwater lake (Trout Bog Lake, TBL). As no GSB virus has been formally described yet, we first used two complementary approaches to identify new GSB viruses from TBL; one in vitro based on flow cytometry cell sorting, the other in silico based on CRISPR spacer sequences. We then took advantage of existing TBL metagenomes covering the 2005–2018 period to examine the interactions between GSB and their viruses across years and seasons. From our data, GSB populations in TBL were constantly associated with at least 2-8 viruses each, including both lytic and temperate phages. The dominant GSB population in particular was consistently associated with two prophages with a nearly 100% infection rate for >10 years. We illustrate with a theoretical model that such an interaction can be stable given a low, but persistent, level of prophage induction in low-diversity host populations. Overall, our data suggest that lytic and lysogenic viruses can readily co-infect the same host population, and that host strain-level diversity might be an important factor controlling virus-host dynamics including lytic/lysogeny switch.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Epidemiological investigation of coccidiosis and associated risk factors in broiler chickens immunized with live anticoccidial vaccines in China

Coccidiosis is a costly intestinal disease of chickens caused by Eimeria species. This infection is associated with high mortality, reduced feed efficiency, and slowed body weight gain. The diagnosis and control of coccidiosis becomes challenging due to the fact that chickens can be infected by seven different Eimeria species and often occur mixed-species co-infections. Grasping the epidemiology of Eimeria species is crucial to estimate the efficiency of poultry management. This study aimed to explore the distribution of Eimeria species in broiler chickens in China after administering live anticoccidial vaccines. A total of 634 samples were obtained, and the survey results showed that the prevalence of Eimeria was 86.12% (546/634), and the most common species were E. acervulina (65.62%), E. necatrix (50.95%), E. mitis (50.79%), E. tenella (48.42%), and E. praecox (41.80%). Most samples indicated mixed-species infections (an average of 3.29 species per positive sample). Notably, 63.98% of samples contain 3 to 5 Eimeria species within a single fecal sample. The most prevalent combinations were E. acervulina – E. tenella (38.96%) and E. acervulina – E. necatrix (37.22%). Statistical analysis showed that flocks vaccinated with trivalent vaccines were significantly positive for E. necatrix in grower chickens (OR = 3.30, p < 0.05) compared with starter chickens, and tetravalent vaccinated flocks showed that starter chickens demonstrated a higher susceptibility to E. tenella – E. brunetti (OR = 2.03, p < 0.05) and E. acervulina – E. maxima (OR = 2.05, p < 0.05) compared with adult chickens. Geographically, in the case of tetravalent vaccine-immunized flocks, a substantial positive association was observed between E. necatrix infection rates and flocks from eastern (OR = 3.88, p < 0.001), central (OR = 2.65, p = 0.001), and southern China (OR = 3.17, p < 0.001) compared with southwestern China. This study also found a positive association between E. necatrix (OR = 1.64, p < 0.05), E. acervulina (OR = 1.59, p < 0.05), and E. praecox (OR = 1.81, p < 0.05) infection and coccidiosis occurrence compared with non-infected flocks in tetravalent vaccinated flocks. This molecular epidemiological investigation showed a high prevalence of Eimeria species in the field. The emergent species, E. brunetti and E. praecox , might be incorporated into the widely-used live vaccines in the future. These insights could be useful in refining coccidiosis control strategies in the poultry industry.

Liao, Shenquan↗
DOE OSTI2022

ADAPTIVE GROUP TESTING WITH MISMATCHED MODELS

Accurate detection of infected individuals is one of the critical steps in stopping any pandemic. When the underlying infection rate of the disease is low, testing people in groups, instead of testing each individual in the population, can be more efficient. In this work, we consider noisy adaptive group testing design with specific test sensitivity and specificity that select the optimal group given previous test results based on pre-selected utility function. As in prior studies on group testing, we model this problem as a sequential Bayesian Optimal Experimental Design (BOED) to adaptively design the groups for each test. We analyze the required number of group tests when using the updated posterior on the infection status and the corresponding Mutual Information (MI) as our utility function for selecting new groups. More importantly, we study how the potential bias on the ground-truth noise of group tests may affect the group testing sample complexity.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Nicotine-Inspired, De Novo-Designed SARS-CoV-2 Main Protease Inhibitors Reveal Unique Chemistry for Covalently Conjugating Both Cysteine and Histidine Residues in the Catalytic Dyad

Anecdotal reports about smokers with low SARS-CoV-2 infection rates prompted a search for nicotine and its pyrolysis products as SARS-CoV-2 main protease (M Pro ) inhibitors. From this search, 3-vinylpyridine was discovered as a weak binder for the M Pro S1 subsite and was used subsequently as a de novo starting point for covalent inhibitor design that quickly yielded a highly potent inhibitor, SR-A-174, with an IC 50 value of 60 nM. Representing a novel class of M Pro inhibitors, SR-A-174 features an N,N -diaryl-α,α-dichloroacetamide scaffold that facilitated rapid exploration of alternative covalent warheads and various N-substituents, leading to the identification of multiple inhibitors with potent antiviral activity. Eight such M Pro inhibitor structures were determined, all demonstrating covalent binding to catalytic Cys145 of M Pro . In six determined structures, binding is dominated by the covalent bond plus van der Waals contacts, which contrasts with the extensive hydrogen bond networks formed with peptidomimetic inhibitors such as nirmatrelvir. Strikingly, two N,N -diaryl-α,α-dichloroacetamide inhibitors exhibit an unprecedented dual covalent modification mode of the catalytic dyad, forming bonds to both Cys145 and His41 with a concomitant loss of both chlorides and displacing the inhibitors from the S1 subsite. This dyad-targeting reactivity suggests a novel route for bioconjugation of both cysteine and histidine.

SARS-CoV-2↗
DOE OSTI2025

Climate change drives reduced biocontrol of the invasive spongy moth

The effects of climate change on forest-defoliating insects are poorly understood, but could severely reduce forest productivity, biodiversity and timber production. For decades following its introduction in 1869, the spongy moth ( Lymantria dispar ) severely defoliated North American forests, but the introduction of the fungal pathogen Entomophaga maimaiga in 1989 suppressed spongy moth defoliation for 27 years. E. maimaiga , however, needs cool, moist conditions, whereas climate change is bringing hot, dry conditions to the range of the insect. Here, in this work, we use an empirically verified eco-climate model to project that climate change will sharply reduce E. maimaiga infection rates, thereby increasing spongy moth defoliation. Recent rebounds in defoliation are consistent with our projections. Our work demonstrates that the effects of climate change on species interactions can have important consequences for natural ecosystems.

climate-change ecology↗
DOE OSTI2021

Benchmarking SARS CoV-2 Infection in the Workplace to Support Continuity of Operations

Objective: The COVID-19 pandemic jeopardizes continuity of operations of workplaces and the health and safety of workers. Exemplar workplace-related SARS-CoV-2 benchmarks are described and illustrated with empirical data. Methods: Benchmarks were collected over a 9-month period on a large workplace (N = 5500+). These ranged from quantitative indices associated with RT-qPCR targeted testing and random surveillance screening, surveillance for new variants of SARS-CoV-2, intensive contact tracing, case management, return to work procedures, to monitoring of antibody seropositive status. Results: Data and analyses substantiated effectiveness of interventions. This was evidenced in suppressed infection rates, rapid case identification and isolation, acceptance of the program by employees, documentation of presumptive immunity, and working relationships with senior management. Conclusions: These SARS-CoV-2 exemplar benchmarks provided an evidence-base for practice and contributed strategically to organizational decisions.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Naegleria fowleri: Protein structures to facilitate drug discovery for the deadly, pathogenic free-living amoeba

Naegleria fowleri is a pathogenic, thermophilic, free-living amoeba which causes primary amebic meningoencephalitis (PAM). Penetrating the olfactory mucosa, the brain-eating amoeba travels along the olfactory nerves, burrowing through the cribriform plate to its destination: the brain’s frontal lobes. The amoeba thrives in warm, freshwater environments, with peak infection rates in the summer months and has a mortality rate of approximately 97%. A major contributor to the pathogen’s high mortality is the lack of sensitivity of N . fowleri to current drug therapies, even in the face of combination-drug therapy. To enable rational drug discovery and design efforts we have pursued protein production and crystallography-based structure determination efforts for likely drug targets from N . fowleri . The genes were selected if they had homology to drug targets listed in Drug Bank or were nominated by primary investigators engaged in N . fowleri research. In 2017, 178 N . fowleri protein targets were queued to the Seattle Structural Genomics Center of Infectious Disease (SSGCID) pipeline, and to date 89 soluble recombinant proteins and 19 unique target structures have been produced. Many of the new protein structures are potential drug targets and contain structural differences compared to their human homologs, which could allow for the development of pathogen-specific inhibitors. Five of the structures were analyzed in more detail, and four of five show promise that selective inhibitors of the active site could be found. The 19 solved crystal structures build a foundation for future work in combating this devastating disease by encouraging further investigation to stimulate drug discovery for this neglected pathogen.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Powering Post-COVID-19 Resilient Recovery with Green Stimulus

As the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic spread globally in early 2020, many governments enacted lockdown measures as an initial containment response. These lockdowns, while effective in slowing infection rates, have also had substantial economic consequences. A series of supply and demand shocks, workforce and supply chain disruptions, and other impacts of the pandemic and ensuing lockdowns have upended the livelihoods for much of the world's population. This quick read spotlights how green stimulus plans and other recovery measures can support near-term recovery and enable longer-term power system resilience against future threats. The term “green stimulus” encompasses fiscal measures (i.e., governmental tax and spending actions) that support short-term economic activity that enhances environmental and natural resource quality over a longer term. The deployment of energy efficiency (EE) and renewable energy (RE) technologies, as well as associated initiatives (e.g., grid modernization, electrification of transport, and so on) have been demonstrably effective in providing this kind of short-run economic boost while simultaneously strengthening the resilience of the power sector. Along with green stimulus packages, concurrent action on the regulatory side—for example, the development of green building codes, updating grid interconnection standards, creating programs and marketplaces for demand-side efficiency, and others—can be a force multiplier in ensuring that public spending achieves maximum impact in near-term recovery and long-term power sector transformation

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Distinct Conformations of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Spike Protein and Its Interaction with ACE2 and Antibody

Since November 2021, Omicron has been the dominant severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variant that causes the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and has continuously impacted human health. Omicron sublineages are still increasing and cause increased transmission and infection rates. The additional 15 mutations on the receptor binding domain (RBD) of Omicron spike proteins change the protein conformation, enabling the Omicron variant to evade neutralizing antibodies. For this reason, many efforts have been made to design new antigenic variants to induce effective antibodies in SARS-CoV-2 vaccine development. However, understanding the different states of Omicron spike proteins with and without external molecules has not yet been addressed. In this review, we analyze the structures of the spike protein in the presence and absence of angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) and antibodies. Compared to previously determined structures for the wildtype spike protein and other variants such as alpha, beta, delta, and gamma, the Omicron spike protein adopts a partially open form. The open-form spike protein with one RBD up is dominant, followed by the open-form spike protein with two RBD up, and the closed-form spike protein with the RBD down. It is suggested that the competition between antibodies and ACE2 induces interactions between adjacent RBDs of the spike protein, which lead to a partially open form of the Omicron spike protein. The comprehensive structural information of Omicron spike proteins could be helpful for the efficient design of vaccines against the Omicron variant.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Envisioning urban environments resilient to vector-borne diseases: a protocol to study dengue in Vietnam

Transmitted primarily by Aedes aegypti (Ae. aegypti) and Aedes albopictus (Ae. albopictus), arboviral diseases pose a major global public health threat. Dengue, chikungunya, and zika are increasingly prevalent in Southeast Asia. Among other arboviruses, dengue and zika are becoming more common in Central and South America. Given human encroachment into previously uninhabited, often deforested areas, to provide new housing in regions of population expansion, conceptualizing built urban environments in a novel way is urgently needed to safeguard against the growing climate change-driven threat of vector-borne diseases. By understanding the spread from a One Health perspective, enhanced control and prevention can be achieved. This is particularly important considering that climate change is likely to significantly impact the persistence of ponded water where mosquitoes breed due to increasing temperature and shifting rainfall patterns with regard to magnitude, duration, frequency, and season. Models can incorporate aquatic mosquito stages and adult spatial dynamics when habitats are heterogeneously available, thereby including dispersal and susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) epidemiology. Coupled with human population distribution (density, locations), atmospheric conditions (air temperature, precipitation), and hydrological conditions (soil moisture distribution, ponding persistence in topographic depressions), modeling has improved predictive ability for infection rates. However, it has not informed interventional approaches from an urban environment perspective which considers the role of ponds/lakes that support green spaces, the density of population that enables rapid spread of disease, and varying micro-habitats for various mosquito stages under climate change. Here, for an example of dengue in Vietnam, a preventive and predictive approach to design resilient urban environments is proposed, which uses data from rapidly expanding metropolitan communities to learn continually. This protocol deploys computational approaches including simulation and machine learning/artificial intelligence, underpinned by surveillance and medical data for validation and adaptive learning. Its application may best inform urban planning in low-middle income countries in tropical zones where arboviral pathogens are prevalent.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1972

Experimental system, and its evaluation for the control of surgically inducted infections

The effect is reported to design, fabricate, test and evaluate a prototype experimental system for the control of surgically induced infections. The purpose is to provide the cleanest possible environment within a hospital surgery room and eliminate contamination sources that could cause infections during surgery. The system design is described. The system provides for a portable laminar flow clean room, a full bubble helmet system with associated communications and ventilation subsystems for operating room personnel, and surgical gowns that minimize the migration of bacteria. The development test results consisting of portability, laminar flowrate, air flow pattern, electrostatic buildup, noise level, ventilation, human factors, electrical and material compatibility tests are summarized. The conclusions are that the experimental system is effective in reducing the airborne and wound contamination although the helmets and gowns may not be a significant part of this reduction. Definitive conclusions with regard to the infection rate cannot be made at this time.

Tevebaugh, M. D.↗