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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

GeoAI for Public Health

Infectious disease spread within the human population can be conceptualized as a complex system composed of individuals who interact and transmit viruses through spatio-temporal processes that manifest across and between scales. The complexity of this system ultimately means that the spread of infectious diseases is difficult to understand, predict, and respond to effectively. Research interest in GeoAI for public health has been fueled by the increased availability of rich data sources such as human mobility data, OpenStreetMap data, contact tracing data, symptomatic online surveys, retail and commerce data, genomics data, and more. This data availability has resulted in a wide variety of data-driven solutions for infectious disease spread prediction which show potential in enhancing our forecasting capabilities. This chapter (1) motivates the need for AI-based solutions in public health by showing the heterogeneity of human behavior related to health, (2) provides a brief survey of current state-of-the-art solutions using AI for infectious disease spread prediction, (3) describes a use-case of using large-scale human mobility data to inform AI models for the prediction of infectious disease spread in a city, and (4) provides future research directions and ideas.

Zufle, Andreas↗
DOE OSTI2021

Forecasting influenza activity using machine-learned mobility map

Human mobility is a primary driver of infectious disease spread. However, existing data is limited in availability, coverage, granularity, and timeliness. Data-driven forecasts of disease dynamics are crucial for decision-making by health officials and private citizens alike. In this work, we focus on a machine-learned anonymized mobility map (hereon referred to as AMM) aggregated over hundreds of millions of smartphones and evaluate its utility in forecasting epidemics. We factor AMM into a metapopulation model to retrospectively forecast influenza in the USA and Australia. We show that the AMM model performs on-par with those based on commuter surveys, which are sparsely available and expensive. We also compare it with gravity and radiation based models of mobility, and find that the radiation model’s performance is quite similar to AMM and commuter flows. Additionally, we demonstrate our model’s ability to predict disease spread even across state boundaries. Our work contributes towards developing timely infectious disease forecasting at a global scale using human mobility datasets expanding their applications in the area of infectious disease epidemiology.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Predicting Future Disease Burden in a Rapidly Changing Climate

The interplay of a rapidly changing climate and infectious disease occurrence is emerging as a critical topic, requiring investigation of possible direct, as well as indirect, connections between disease processes and climate-related variation and phenomena. First, we introduce and overview three infectious disease exemplars (dengue, influenza, valley fever) representing different transmission classes (insect-vectored, human-to-human, environmentally-transmitted) to illuminate the complex and significant interplay between climate disease processes, as well as to motivate discussion of how Sandia can transform the field, and change our understanding of climate-driven infectious disease spread. We also review state-of-the-art epidemiological and climate modeling approaches, together with data analytics and machine learning methods, potentially relevant to climate and infectious disease studies. We synthesize the modeling and disease exemplars information, suggesting initial avenues for research and development (R&D) in this area, and propose potential sponsors for this work. Whether directly or indirectly, it is certain that a rapidly changing climate will alter global disease burden. The trajectory of climate change is an important control on this burden, from local, to regional and global scales. The efforts proposed herein respond to the National Research Councils call for the creation of a multidisciplinary institute that would address critical aspects of these interlocking, cascading crises.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

At Risk Population Estimates for Belarus, Poland and Slovakia with Machine Learning

High-resolution gridded population modeling is crucial for various applications, including disaster response planning, infectious disease spread modeling, climate change impact estimation, policy development, and more. Multiple gridded population datasets have been developed, each tailored to meet specific objectives. Among them, LandScan Global dataset is designed to represent ambient and unwarned population distributions. However, this dataset relies on a statistical approach that requires manual adjustments, making it time consuming and labour intensive. Existing machine learning (ML) methods often train and test at different spatial resolutions, potentially leading to inflated results, and they rely on Census population totals for disaggregation. To address these limitations, in this study we developed population estimates using ML models trained and tested at a consistent 30 arc-second resolution (≈1 square kilometer), specifically using Random Forest (RF) and XGBoost. These models were trained on 2020 datum to predict for 2021 for three countries: Belarus, Poland, and Slovakia. Our findings show that both RF (MAE varies from 5.75 to 13.25) and XGBoost (MAE varies from 8.15 to 23.44) model performance is close to LandScan Global estimates. Furthermore, neither of the models performed the best across all grid cells: the RF model was more effective in areas with lower populations, while XGBoost excelled in more densely populated regions. The proposed approach can be used for countries where the Census data is not available.

Lebakula, Viswadeep [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000152935914↗
DOE OSTI2021

FL-DISCO: Federated Generative Adversarial Network for Graph-based Molecule Drug Discovery: Special Session Paper

The outbreak of the global COVID-19 pandemic emphasizes the importance of collaborative drug discovery for high effectiveness; however, due to the stringent data regulation, data privacy becomes an imminent issue needing to be addressed to enable collaborative drug discovery. In addition to the data privacy issue, the efficiency of drug discovery is another key objective since infectious diseases spread exponentially and effectively conducting drug discovery could save lives. Advanced Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques are promising to solve these problems: (1) Federated Learning (FL) is born to keep data privacy while learning data from distributed clients; (2) graph neural network (GNN) can extract structural properties of molecules whose underlying architecture is the connected atoms; and (3) generative adversarial network (GAN) can generate novel molecules while retaining the properties learned from the training data. In this work, we make the first attempt to build a holistic collaborative and privacy-preserving FL framework, namely FL- DISCO, which integrates GAN and GNN to generate molecular graphs. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of FL- DISCO on: (1) IID data for ESOL and QM9, where FL-DISCO can generate highly novel compounds with high drug-likeliness, uniqueness and LogP scores compared to the baseline; (2) non- IID data for ESOL and QM9, where FL-DISCO generates 100% novel compounds with high validity and LogP scores compared to the baseline. We also demonstrate how different fractions of clients, generator and discriminator architectures affect our evaluation scores.

Manu, Daniel↗
DOE OSTI2023

Socioeconomically-inspired modeling to justify use of fine-grain mobility data

When designing measures to control infectious disease spread, it is crucial to understand the structure of the population for which interventions are being implemented. Recent work has highlighted the need for models that incorporate demographic heterogeneity not just in age structure but also by socioeconomic status (SES). Appropriately capturing additional sources of population heterogeneity requires considerable data and model development. To understand the potential disagreement between SES-explicit or SES-agnostic disease models, we adapted Sandia’s Adaptive Recovery Model (ARM) model to consider differences in contact structure and mortality by Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) on a theoretical network. We also incorporated an Average network that did not consider SVI. By exploring disparities in vaccine and PPE uptake by SES and comparing to Average networks, as well as analyzing the influence of global vs. local contact, we found that the two model constructions often predicted different outcomes. Whether these differences are truly reflective of incorporating SES, and which model most closely represents reality, merits further investigation.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2021

How New Mexico Leveraged a COVID-19 Case Forecasting Model to Preemptively Address the Healthcare Needs of the State: Quantitative Analysis

Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, US hospitals relied on static projections of future trends for long-term planning and were only beginning to consider forecasting methods for short-term planning of staffing and other resources. With the overwhelming burden imposed by COVID-19 on the health care system, an emergent need exists to accurately forecast hospitalization needs within an actionable timeframe. Our goal was to leverage an existing COVID-19 case and death forecasting tool to generate the expected number of concurrent hospitalizations, occupied intensive care unit (ICU) beds, and in-use ventilators 1 day to 4 weeks in the future for New Mexico and each of its five health regions. We developed a probabilistic model that took as input the number of new COVID-19 cases for New Mexico from Los Alamos National Laboratory’s COVID-19 Forecasts Using Fast Evaluations and Estimation tool, and we used the model to estimate the number of new daily hospital admissions 4 weeks into the future based on current statewide hospitalization rates. The model estimated the number of new admissions that would require an ICU bed or use of a ventilator and then projected the individual lengths of hospital stays based on the resource need. By tracking the lengths of stay through time, we captured the projected simultaneous need for inpatient beds, ICU beds, and ventilators. We used a postprocessing method to adjust the forecasts based on the differences between prior forecasts and the subsequent observed data. Thus, we ensured that our forecasts could reflect a dynamically changing situation on the ground. Forecasts made between September 1 and December 9, 2020, showed variable accuracy across time, health care resource needs, and forecast horizon. Forecasts made in October, when new COVID-19 cases were steadily increasing, had an average accuracy error of 20.0%, while the error in forecasts made in September, a month with low COVID-19 activity, was 39.7%. Across health care use categories, state-level forecasts were more accurate than those at the regional level. Although the accuracy declined as the forecast was projected further into the future, the stated uncertainty of the prediction improved. Forecasts were within 5% of their stated uncertainty at the 50% and 90% prediction intervals at the 3- to 4-week forecast horizon for state-level inpatient and ICU needs. However, uncertainty intervals were too narrow for forecasts of state-level ventilator need and all regional health care resource needs. Real-time forecasting of the burden imposed by a spreading infectious disease is a crucial component of decision support during a public health emergency. Our proposed methodology demonstrated utility in providing near-term forecasts, particularly at the state level. This tool can aid other stakeholders as they face COVID-19 population impacts now and in the future.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

SARS-CoV-2 Monitoring in Wastewater Reveals Novel Variants and Biomarkers of Infection

Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) is a popular tool for the early indication of community spread of infectious diseases. WBE emerged as an effective tool during the COVID-19 pandemic and has provided meaningful information to minimize the spread of infection. Here, we present a combination of analyses using the correlation of viral gene copies with clinical cases, sequencing of wastewater-derived RNA for the viral mutants, and correlative analyses of the viral gene copies with the bacterial biomarkers. Our study provides a unique platform for potentially using the WBE-derived results to predict the spread of COVID-19 and the emergence of new variants of concern. Further, we observed a strong correlation between the presence of SARS-CoV-2 and changes in the microbial community of wastewater, particularly the significant changes in bacterial genera belonging to the families of Lachnospiraceae and Actinomycetaceae . Our study shows that microbial biomarkers could be utilized as prediction tools for future infectious disease surveillance and outbreak responses. Overall, our comprehensive analyses of viral spread, variants, and novel bacterial biomarkers will add significantly to the growing body of literature on WBE and COVID-19.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Multi-Region SEIR Model Incorporating Inter-County Mobility and Time-Dependent Transmission Dynamics: Application to COVID-19 Disease Outbreak Data in North Carolina.

Classical infectious disease compartmental models typically do not incorporate spatial heterogeneity or mobility. We develop a multi-region susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) model in which disease dynamics are coupled via inter-region mobility and the transmission rate is both region and time dependent. We calibrate the model using rolling averages of daily COVID-19 data in all 100 North Carolina counties. Mobility parameters are prescribed using daily inter-county commuter data. The number of transmission rate parameters is substantially reduced by hypothesizing that the dynamics correlate with county-level population density. Parameter estimation is carried out using several objective functions with error terms at different scales. An additive combination of least squares error at the county-level and the state-level, along with a quadratic transmission rate polynomial, yields the lowest overall error at both spatial scales. The calibrated model is used to simulate regional effects of perturbing disease transmission rates in adjacent counties and to illustrate effects of the state’s mobility infrastructure on disease dynamics and spread for a new disease outbreak.

COVID-19 modeling↗
DOE OSTI2023

A review of experimental methods to determine bioaerosol transfer in energy recovery ventilators

Increasing ventilation is an effective method to reduce indoor airborne disease transmission. An Energy recovery ventilator (ERV) is a passive energy recovery device used to reduce the energy consumption of heating, ventilation and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems for conditioning the ventilation air. It preconditions the ventilation air by transferring energy from building exhaust air. Therefore, the ventilation and exhaust air streams interact directly/indirectly in the ERV for energy transfer. It is surmised that the ERV may transfer bioaerosols (with pathogens) from the exhaust air to ventilation air, resulting in the spread of infectious diseases. Consequently, many pandemic HVAC guidelines recommend that the use of ERVs be limited. This is a highly unsustainable direction given the increased energy requirements associated with the high ventilation provision advocated for pandemic operation. It must be noted that no validated experimental evidence exists in literature for bioaerosol transfer in ERVs. Hence, it is necessary to conduct extensive bioaerosol transfer research before adopting the unsustainable practice of limiting the utilization of ERVs. The main objective of this review study is to summarize the experimental methods and instrumentation for bioaerosol transfer research in ERVs. This comprehensive article provides a detailed overview of the generation, sampling, and analysis of bioaerosols for conducting the experiments. Further, it explains the possible mechanisms for bioaerosol transfer in various types of ERVs based on which the ERVs that need immediate attention are identified. The main contribution of this research paper is that it provides a novel experimental method which encompasses the biosafety aspects, instrumentation, performance parameters and uncertainties in conducting virus contained bioaerosol transfer study in ERVs. The findings from this review will be helpful in designing bioaerosol transfer experiments and developing future ERV test standards for such experiments.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Mycobacterium tuberculosis Phe-tRNA synthetase: structural insights into tRNA recognition and aminoacylation

Abstract Tuberculosis, caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis, responsible for ∼1.5 million fatalities in 2018, is the deadliest infectious disease. Global spread of multidrug resistant strains is a public health threat, requiring new treatments. Aminoacyl-tRNA synthetases are plausible candidates as potential drug targets, because they play an essential role in translating the DNA code into protein sequence by attaching a specific amino acid to their cognate tRNAs. We report structures of M. tuberculosis Phe-tRNA synthetase complexed with an unmodified tRNAPhe transcript and either L-Phe or a nonhydrolyzable phenylalanine adenylate analog. High-resolution models reveal details of two modes of tRNA interaction with the enzyme: an initial recognition via indirect readout of anticodon stem-loop and aminoacylation ready state involving interactions of the 3′ end of tRNAPhe with the adenylate site. For the first time, we observe the protein gate controlling access to the active site and detailed geometry of the acyl donor and tRNA acceptor consistent with accepted mechanism. We biochemically validated the inhibitory potency of the adenylate analog and provide the most complete view of the Phe-tRNA synthetase/tRNAPhe system to date. The presented topography of amino adenylate-binding and editing sites at different stages of tRNA binding to the enzyme provide insights for the rational design of anti-tuberculosis drugs.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Animal movement estimation and network-based epidemic modeling: Illustration for the swine industry in Iowa (US)

Animal movement plays a critical role in disease transmission between farms. However, in the United States, the lack of available animal shipment data, sometimes coupled with a lack of detailed information about farm demographics and characteristics, presents great challenges for epidemic modeling and prediction. In this study, we proposed a new method based on the maximum entropy to generate “synthetic” animal movement networks, considering available statistics about the premises operation type, operation size, and the distance between premises. We illustrated our method for the swine movement networks in Iowa and performed network analyses to gain insights into the swine industry. We then applied the generated networks to a network-based epidemic model to identify potential system vulnerabilities in terms of disease transmission. The model was parameterized for African Swine Fever (ASF) as the US swine industry is quite concerned about this disease. Results show that premises with a central role in the network are more vulnerable to disease outbreaks and play an important role in disease spread. Simulations with outbreaks starting from random farms reveal no significant large outbreaks, indicating the system’s relative robustness against arbitrary disease introductions. However, outbreaks originating from high out-degree farms can lead to large epidemic sizes. This underscores the importance for stakeholders and policymakers to continue improving animal movement records and traceability programs in the US and the value of making that data available to epidemiologists and modelers to better understand risk and inform strategies aimed to cost-effectively prevent and control disease transmission. Our approach could be easily adapted to estimate movement networks in other animal production systems and to inform disease spread models for various infectious diseases.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Effects of social structure and management on risk of disease establishment in wild pigs

Contact heterogeneity among hosts determines invasion and spreading dynamics of infectious disease, thus its characterization is essential for identifying effective disease control strategies. Yet, little is known about the factors shaping contact networks in many 28 wildlife species and how wildlife management actions might affect contact networks. Wild pigs in North America are an invasive, socially-structured species that pose a health concern for domestic swine given their ability to transmit numerous devastating diseases 2 such as African swine fever (ASF). Using proximity loggers and GPS data from 48 wild pigs in Florida and South Carolina, USA, we employed a probabilistic framework to estimate weighted contact networks. We determined the effects of sex, social group, and spatial distribution (monthly home range overlap and distance) on wild pig contact. We also estimated the impacts of management-induced perturbations on contact and inferred their effects on ASF establishment in wild pigs with simulation. Social group membership was the primary factor influencing contacts. Between-group contacts depended primarily on space use characteristics, with fewer contacts among groups separated by >2 km and no contacts among groups >4 km apart within a month. Modeling ASF dynamics on the contact network demonstrated that indirect contacts resulting from baiting (a typical method of attracting wild pigs or game species to a site to enhance recreational hunting) increased the risk of disease establishment by ~33% relative to direct contact. Low-intensity population reduction (<5.9% of the population) had no detectable impact on contact structure but reduced predicted ASF establishment risk relative to no population reduction. Here, we demonstrate an approach for understanding the relative role of spatial, social, and individual-level characteristics in shaping contact networks and predicting their effects on disease establishment risk, thus providing insight for optimizing disease control in spatially- and socially-structured wildlife species.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Alternative SIAR models for infectious diseases and applications in the study of non-compliance

In this paper, we use modified versions of the SIAR model for epidemics to propose two ways of understanding and quantifying the effect of non-compliance to non-pharmaceutical intervention measures on the spread of an infectious disease. The SIAR model distinguishes between symptomatic infected (I) and asymptomatic infected (A) populations. One modification, which is simpler, assumes a known proportion of the population does not comply with government mandates such as quarantining and social-distancing. In a more sophisticated approach, the modified model treats non-compliant behavior as a social contagion. We theoretically explore different scenarios such as the occurrence of multiple waves of infections. Local and asymptotic analyses for both models are also provided.

Mathematics↗
DOE OSTI2021

Towards prevention and prediction of infectious diseases with virus sterilization using ultraviolet light and low-temperature plasma and bio-sensing devices for health and hygiene care

Inspired by the ideas of many authors, we provide insight on state-of-the-art potential technologies for the prevention and prediction of infectious diseases before they spread. This review also surveys virus sterilization with ultraviolet light and low temperature plasma technologies. Researchers in the various fields of medicine, materials, electronics, and plasma sciences have addressed increasingly challenging demands and the discussion encompasses the major challenges in societies that are faced with the threat of infectious diseases. In addition, technologies that use nanomaterials are evaluated for infection prevention and hygiene purposes. Advances in biomedical diagnostics for health care in terms of complementary metal-oxide-semiconductor transistors-based devices and telemetry for health monitoring are also reviewed.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Reducing Risk With ASHRAE Standard 241

ASHRAE Standard 241’s requirements can make indoor spaces more resilient to the spread of airborne infectious diseases. Buildings that comply with ASHRAE Standard 241-2023, Control of Infectious Aerosols,1 will have the capacity to respond during times of elevated risk with systems that provide the necessary equivalent clean airflow for infection control (VECAi). To reduce risk effectively, these systems need to operate properly. This column explores Standard 241’s requirements for operations and maintenance in high-risk times (infection risk management mode or IRMM) and the importance of creating a Building Readiness Plan.

ashrae standard 241, Operations and Maintenance, b↗
NASA NTRS2012

Use of Giovanni System in Public Health Application

The role of environment and climate in propagating infectious disease has long been recognized since the 5th century. The effect is particularly evident in vector-borne diseases such as malaria where temperature, precipitation and humidity influence the lifecycle of the pathogens and mosquitoes. Likewise, the transmission of respiratory diseases is also often associated with climatic factors. For example, a recent study showed that low humidity and temperature provides efficient condition for seasonal influenza transmission. Understanding of how environment and climate affect infectious diseases would essentially provide guides to prevent and control the spread of disease. Toward this end, our group has developed models for infectious disease risk such as for malaria, dengue and influenza that are driven by climatic and environmental inputs. Results will be presented, especially those that used TRMM data from GIOVANNI.

Soebiyanto, Radina↗