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A method for inferring carbon monoxide concentrations from gas filter radiometer data is presented. The technique can closely approximate the results of more costly line-by-line radiative transfer calculations over a wide range of altitudes, ground temperatures, and carbon monoxide concentrations. The technique can also be used over a larger range of conditions than those used for the regression analysis. Because the influence of the carbon monoxide mixing ratio requires only addition, multiplication and a minimum of logic, the method can be implemented on very small computers or microprocessors.
This paper presents a new method for inferring the Initial Mass Function of young clusters based on intrinsic K-band Luminosity functions (LFs).
Diagnosis is often thought of as an isolated task in theoretical reasoning (reasoning with the goal of updating our beliefs about the world). We present a decision-theoretic interpretation of diagnosis as a task in practical reasoning (reasoning with the goal of acting in the world), and sketch components of our approach to this task. These components include an abstract problem description, a decision-theoretic model of the basic task, a set of inference methods suitable for evaluating the decision representation in real-time, and a control architecture to provide the needed continuing coordination between the agent and its environment. A principal contribution of this work is the representation and inference methods we have developed, which extend previously available probabilistic inference methods and narrow, somewhat, the gap between probabilistic and logical models of diagnosis.
Models and modeling environments for human performance are becoming significant contributors to early system design and analysis procedures. Issues of levels of automation, physical environment, informational environment, and manning requirements are being addressed by such man/machine analysis systems. The research reported here investigates the close interaction between models of human cognition and models that described procedural performance. We describe a methodology for the decomposition of aircrew procedures that supports interaction with models of cognition on the basis of procedures observed; that serves to identify cockpit/avionics information sources and crew information requirements; and that provides the structure to support methods for function allocation among crew and aiding systems. Our approach is to develop an object-oriented, modular, executable software representation of the aircrew, the aircraft, and the procedures necessary to satisfy flight-phase goals. We then encode in a time-based language, taxonomies of the conceptual, relational, and procedural constraints among the cockpit avionics and control system and the aircrew. We have designed and implemented a goals/procedures hierarchic representation sufficient to describe procedural flow in the cockpit. We then execute the procedural representation in simulation software and calculate the values of the flight instruments, aircraft state variables and crew resources using the constraints available from the relationship taxonomies. The system provides a flexible, extensible, manipulative and executable representation of aircrew and procedures that is generally applicable to crew/procedure task-analysis. The representation supports developed methods of intent inference, and is extensible to include issues of information requirements and functional allocation. We are attempting to link the procedural representation to models of cognitive functions to establish several intent inference methods including procedural backtracking with concurrent search, temporal reasoning, and constraint checking for partial ordering of procedures. Finally, the representation is being linked to models of human decision making processes that include heuristic, propositional and prescriptive judgement models that are sensitive to the procedural content in which the valuative functions are being performed.
When analyzing data from an array of spacecraft (such as Cluster or MMS) crossing a site of magnetic reconnection, it is desirable to be able to accurately determine the orientation of the reconnection site. If the reconnection is quasi-two dimensional, there are three key directions, the direction of maximum inhomogeneity (the direction across the reconnection site), the direction of the reconnecting component of the magnetic field, and the direction of rough invariance (the "out of plane" direction). Using simulated spacecraft observations of magnetic reconnection in the geomagnetic tail, we extend our previous tests of the direction-finding method developed by Shi et al. (2005) and the method to determine the structure velocity relative to the spacecraft Vstr. These methods require data from four proximate spacecraft. We add artificial noise and calibration errors to the simulation fields, and then use the perturbed gradient of the magnetic field B and perturbed time derivative dB/dt, as described by Denton et al. (2010). Three new simulations are examined: a weakly three-dimensional, i.e., quasi-two-dimensional, MHD simulation without a guide field, a quasi-two-dimensional MHD simulation with a guide field, and a two-dimensional full dynamics kinetic simulation with inherent noise so that the apparent minimum gradient was not exactly zero, even without added artificial errors. We also examined variations of the spacecraft trajectory for the kinetic simulation. The accuracy of the directions found varied depending on the simulation and spacecraft trajectory, but all the directions could be found within about 10 for all cases. Various aspects of the method were examined, including how to choose averaging intervals and the best intervals for determining the directions and velocity. For the kinetic simulation, we also investigated in detail how the errors in the inferred gradient directions from the unmodified Shi et al. method (using the unperturbed gradient) depended on the amplitude of the calibration errors. For an accuracy of 3 for the maximum gradient direction, the calibration errors could be as large as 3% of reconnection magnetic field, while for the same accuracy for the minimum gradient direction, the calibration errors could only be as large as 0.03% of the reconnection magnetic field. These results suggest that the maximum gradient direction can normally be determined by the unmodified Shi et al. method, while the modified method or some other method must be used to accurately determine the minimum gradient direction. The structure velocity was found with magnitude accurate to 2% and direction accurate to within 5%.
Following its formation, a star's metal content is one of the few factors that can significantly alter its evolution. Measurements of stellar metallicity ([Fe/H]) typically require a spectrum, but spectroscopic surveys are limited to a few x 10(exp 6) targets; photometric surveys, on the other hand, have detected > 10(exp 9) stars. I present a new machine-learning method to predict [Fe/H] from photometric colors measured by the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS). The training set consists of approx. 120,000 stars with SDSS photometry and reliable [Fe/H] measurements from the SEGUE Stellar Parameters Pipeline (SSPP). For bright stars (g' < or = 18 mag), with 4500 K < or = Teff < or = 7000 K, corresponding to those with the most reliable SSPP estimates, I find that the model predicts [Fe/H] values with a root-mean-squared-error (RMSE) of approx.0.27 dex. The RMSE from this machine-learning method is similar to the scatter in [Fe/H] measurements from low-resolution spectra..
Ten of eleven proposed three-dimensional similarity models identified in the literature are evaluated with direct wall shear, velocity field, and pressure gradient data from a three-dimensional shear-driven boundary layer flow. Results define an upper limit on velocity vector skewing for each model's predictive ability. When combined with earlier results for pressure-driven flows, each model's predictive ability with and without pressure gradients is summarized. The utility of some two-dimensional type indirect wall shear measurement methods and wall shear inference methods from near-wall velocity measurements for three-dimensional flows is also discussed.
Cloud-top height is a major factor determining the outgoing longwave flux at the top of the atmosphere. The downwelling radiation from the cloud strongly affects the cooling rate within the atmosphere and the longwave radiation incident at the surface. Thus, determination of cloud-base temperature is important for proper calculation of fluxes below the cloud. Cloud-base altitude is also an important factor in aircraft operations. Cloud-top height or temperature can be derived in a straightforward manner using satellite-based infrared data. Cloud-base temperature, however, is not observable from the satellite, but is related to the height, phase, and optical depth of the cloud in addition to other variables. This study uses surface and satellite data taken during the First ISCCP Regional Experiment (FIRE) Phase-2 Intensive Field Observation (IFO) period (13 Nov. - 7 Dec. 1991, to improve techniques for deriving cloud-base height from conventional satellite data.
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Spectral band differences between sensors can complicate the process of intercalibration of a visible sensor against a reference sensor. This can be best addressed by using a hyperspectral reference sensor whenever possible because they can be used to accurately mitigate the band differences. This paper demonstrates the feasibility of using operational Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric Cartography (SCIAMACHY) large-footprint hyperspectral radiances to calibrate geostationary Earth-observing (GEO) sensors. Near simultaneous nadir overpass measurements were used to compare the temporal calibration of SCIAMACHY with Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer band radiances, which were found to be consistent to within 0.44% over seven years. An operational SCIAMACHY/GEO ray-matching technique was presented, along with enhancements to improve radiance pair sampling. These enhancements did not bias the underlying intercalibration and provided enough sampling to allow up to monthly monitoring of the GEO sensor degradation. The results of the SCIAMACHY/GEO intercalibration were compared with other operational four-year Meteosat-9 0.65-μm calibration coefficients and were found to be within 1% of the gain, and more importantly, it had one of the lowest temporal standard errors of all the methods. This is more than likely that the GEO spectral response function could be directly applied to the SCIAMACHY radiances, whereas the other operational methods inferred a spectral correction factor. This method allows the validation of the spectral corrections required by other methods.
A statistical inference method based on the principle of maximum entropy is developed for the purpose of enhancing and restoring satellite images. The proposed maximum entropy image restoration method is shown to overcome the difficulties associated with image restoration and provide the smoothest and most appropriate solution consistent with the measured data. An implementation of the method on the MP-1 computer is described, and results of tests on simulated data are presented.
Autonomous Exploration, Inc., has developed an advanced Bayesian statistical inference method that leverages current computing technology to produce a highly accurate surface navigation system. The method combines dense stereo vision and high-speed optical flow to implement visual odometry (VO) to track faster rover movements. The Bayesian VO technique improves performance by using all image information rather than corner features only. The method determines what can be learned from each image pixel and weighs the information accordingly. This capability improves performance in shadowed areas that yield only low-contrast images. The error characteristics of the visual processing are complementary to those of a low-cost inertial measurement unit (IMU), so the combination of the two capabilities provides highly accurate navigation. The method increases NASA mission productivity by enabling faster rover speed and accuracy. On Earth, the technology will permit operation of robots and autonomous vehicles in areas where the Global Positioning System (GPS) is degraded or unavailable.
Bayesian estimation, decision theory, least squares method, maximum likelihood, and other mathematical techniques of statistical inference theory
Monitoring the health of rocket engine systems is essentially a two-phase process. The acquisition phase involves sensing physical conditions at selected locations, converting physical inputs to electrical signals, conditioning the signals as appropriate to establish scale or filter interference, and recording results in a form that is easy to interpret. The inference phase involves analysis of results from the acquisition phase, comparison of analysis results to established health measures, and assessment of health indications. A variety of analytical tools may be employed in the inference phase of health monitoring. These tools can be separated into three broad categories: statistical, rule based, and model based. Statistical methods can provide excellent comparative measures of engine operating health. They require well-characterized data from an ensemble of "typical" engines, or "golden" data from a specific test assumed to define the operating norm in order to establish reliable comparative measures. Statistical methods are generally suitable for real-time health monitoring because they do not deal with the physical complexities of engine operation. The utility of statistical methods in rocket engine health monitoring is hindered by practical limits on the quantity and quality of available data. This is due to the difficulty and high cost of data acquisition, the limited number of available test engines, and the problem of simulating flight conditions in ground test facilities. In addition, statistical methods incur a penalty for disregarding flow complexity and are therefore limited in their ability to define performance shift causality. Rule based methods infer the health state of the engine system based on comparison of individual measurements or combinations of measurements with defined health norms or rules. This does not mean that rule based methods are necessarily simple. Although binary yes-no health assessment can sometimes be established by relatively simple rules, the causality assignment needed for refined health monitoring often requires an exceptionally complex rule base involving complicated logical maps. Structuring the rule system to be clear and unambiguous can be difficult, and the expert input required to maintain a large logic network and associated rule base can be prohibitive.
Fault discovery in the complex systems consist of model based reasoning, fault tree analysis, rule based inference methods, and other approaches. Model based reasoning builds models for the systems either by mathematic formulations or by experiment model. Fault Tree Analysis shows the possible causes of a system malfunction by enumerating the suspect components and their respective failure modes that may have induced the problem. The rule based inference build the model based on the expert knowledge. Those models and methods have one thing in common; they have presumed some prior-conditions. Complex systems often use fault trees to analyze the faults. Fault diagnosis, when error occurs, is performed by engineers and analysts performing extensive examination of all data gathered during the mission. International Space Station (ISS) control center operates on the data feedback from the system and decisions are made based on threshold values by using fault trees. Since those decision-making tasks are safety critical and must be done promptly, the engineers who manually analyze the data are facing time challenge. To automate this process, this paper present an approach that uses decision trees to discover fault from data in real-time and capture the contents of fault trees as the initial state of the trees.
Uncertainty is a pervasive feature of the domains in which expert systems are designed to function. Research design to test uncertain inference methods for accuracy and robustness, in accordance with standard engineering practice is reviewed. Several studies were conducted to assess how well various methods perform on problems constructed so that correct answers are known, and to find out what underlying features of a problem cause strong or weak performance. For each method studied, situations were identified in which performance deteriorates dramatically. Over a broad range of problems, some well known methods do only about as well as a simple linear regression model, and often much worse than a simple independence probability model. The results indicate that some commercially available expert system shells should be used with caution, because the uncertain inference models that they implement can yield rather inaccurate results.
In recent years, Graphplan style reachability analysis and mutual exclusion reasoning have been used in many high performance planning systems. While numerous refinements and extensions have been developed, the basic plan graph structure and reasoning mechanisms used in these systems are tied to the very simple STRIPS model of action. In 1999, Smith and Weld generalized the Graphplan methods for reachability and mutex reasoning to allow actions to have differing durations. However, the representation of actions still has some severe limitations that prevent the use of these techniques for many real-world planning systems. In this paper, we 1) separate the logic of reachability from the particular representation and inference methods used in Graphplan, and 2) extend the notions of reachability and mutual exclusion to more general notions of time and action. As it turns out, the general rules for mutual exclusion reasoning take on a remarkably clean and simple form. However, practical instantiations of them turn out to be messy, and require that we make representation and reasoning choices.