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Results for “influential observations”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2018

Assessing robustness of factor ranking for supersaturated designs

Supersaturated designs can potentially be a beneficial tool for efficiently exploring a large number of factors with a moderately sized design. However, because more factors are being considered than there are runs, the stability of the identified factors depends heavily on effect sparsity and the lack of highly influential observations. A helpful tool for the analysis of supersaturated designs is least absolute shrinkage and selection operation (LASSO), which is useful when the effects of many explanatory variables are sparse in a high-dimensional dataset. To understand the impact of individual observations on the selected factors, the LASSO influence plot was created. This work describes an application of this plot and its variants that can be used to identify influential points, increase understanding of the impact of individual observations on model parameters, and the robustness of results in analyses with supersaturated designs. These graphical methods can serve as a complement to other regression diagnostics techniques in the LASSO regression setting.

3-D LASSO influence plots↗
DOE OSTI2020

Do Dominant Ants Affect Secondary Productivity, Behavior and Diversity in a Guild of Woodland Ants?

The degree to which competition by dominant species shapes ecological communities remains a largely unresolved debate. In ants, unimodal dominance–richness relationships are common and suggest that dominant species, when very abundant, competitively exclude non-dominant species. However, few studies have investigated the underlying mechanisms by which dominant ants might affect coexistence and the maintenance of species richness. In this study, we first examined the relationship between the richness of non-dominant ant species and the abundance of a dominant ant species, Formica subsericea, among forest ant assemblages in the eastern US. This relationship was hump-shaped or not significant depending on the inclusion or exclusion of an influential observation. Moreover, we found only limited evidence that F. subsericea negatively affects the productivity or behavior of non-dominant ant species. For example, at the colony-level, the size and productivity of colonies of non-dominant ant species were not different when they were in close proximity to dominant ant nests than when they were away and, in fact, was associated with increased productivity in one species. Additionally, the number of foraging workers of only one non-dominant ant species was lower at food sources near than far from dominant F. subsericea nests, while the number of foragers of other species was not negatively affected. However, foraging activity of the non-dominant ant species was greater at night when F. subsericea was inactive, suggesting a potential mechanism by which some non-dominant species avoid interactions with competitively superior species. Gaining a mechanistic understanding of how patterns of community structure arise requires linking processes from colonies to communities. Our study suggests the negative effects of dominant ant species on non-dominant species may be offset by mechanisms promoting coexistence.

Formicidae↗
DOE OSTI2016

Constraints on black hole/host galaxy co-evolution and binary stalling using pulsar timing arrays

Pulsar timing arrays are now setting increasingly tight limits on the gravitational wave background from binary supermassive black holes (SMBHs). But as upper limits grow more constraining, what can be implied about galaxy evolution? We investigate which astrophysical parameters have the largest impact on predictions of the strain spectrum and provide a simple framework to directly translate between measured values for the parameters of galaxy evolution and pulsar timing array (PTA) limits on the gravitational wave background of binary SMBHs. We find that the most influential observable is the relation between a host galaxy's central bulge and its central black hole, M{sub ∙}--M{sub bulge}, which has the largest effect on the mean value of the characteristic strain amplitude. However, the variance of each prediction is dominated by uncertainties in galaxy stellar mass functions. Using this framework with the best published PTA limit, we can set limits on the shape and scatter of the M{sub ∙}--M{sub bulge} relation. We find our limits to be in contention with strain predictions using two leading measurements of this relation. We investigate several possible reasons for this disagreement. If we take the M{sub ∙}--M{sub bulge} relations to be correct within a simple power-law model for the gravitational wave background, then the inconsistency is reconcilable by allowing for an additional “stalling” time between a galaxy merger and evolution of a binary SMBH to sub-parsec scales, with lower limits on this timescale of ∼1–2 Gyr.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

The linear and non-linear characterization of dust ion acoustic mode in complex plasma in presence of dynamical charging of dust

A systematic theoretical investigation has been carried out on the role of dust charging dynamics on the nature and stability of DIA (Dust Ion Acoustic) mode in complex plasma. The study has been made for both linear and non-linear scale regime of DIA mode. The observed results have been characterized in terms of background plasma responses towards dust surface responsible for dust charge fluctuation, invoking important dusty plasma parameters, especially the ion flow speed and dust size. The linear analyses confirm the nature of instability in DIA mode in presence of dust charge fluctuation. The instability shows a damping of DIA mode in subsonic flow regime followed by a gradual growth in instability in supersonic limit of ion flow. The strength of non-linearity and their existence domain is found to be driven by different dusty plasma parameters. As dust is ubiquitous in interstellar medium with plasma background, the study also addresses the possible effect of dust charging dynamics in gravito-electrostatic characterization and the stability of dust molecular clouds especially in proto-planetary disc. The observations are influential and interesting towards the understanding of dust settling mechanism and formation of dust environments in different regions in space.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2015

Graphical methods for the sensitivity analysis in discriminant analysis

Similar to regression, many measures to detect influential data points in discriminant analysis have been developed. Many follow similar principles as the diagnostic measures used in linear regression in the context of discriminant analysis. Here we focus on the impact on the predicted classification posterior probability when a data point is omitted. The new method is intuitive and easily interpretative compared to existing methods. We also propose a graphical display to show the individual movement of the posterior probability of other data points when a specific data point is omitted. This enables the summaries to capture the overall pattern of the change.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2015

Mineral density volume gradients in normal and diseased human tissues

Clinical computed tomography provides a single mineral density (MD) value for heterogeneous calcified tissues containing early and late stage pathologic formations. The novel aspect of this study is that, it extends current quantitative methods of mapping mineral density gradients to three dimensions, discretizes early and late mineralized stages, identifies elemental distribution in discretized volumes, and correlates measured MD with respective calcium (Ca) to phosphorus (P) and Ca to zinc (Zn) elemental ratios. To accomplish this, MD variations identified using polychromatic radiation from a high resolution micro-computed tomography (micro-CT) benchtop unit were correlated with elemental mapping obtained from a microprobe X-ray fluorescence (XRF) using synchrotron monochromatic radiation. Digital segmentation of tomograms from normal and diseased tissues (N=5 per group; 40-60 year old males) contained significant mineral density variations (enamel: 2820-3095mg/cc, bone: 570-1415mg/cc, cementum: 1240-1340mg/cc, dentin: 1480-1590mg/cc, cementum affected by periodontitis: 1100-1220mg/cc, hypomineralized carious dentin: 345-1450mg/cc, hypermineralized carious dentin: 1815-2740mg/cc, and dental calculus: 1290-1770mg/cc). A plausible linear correlation between segmented MD volumes and elemental ratios within these volumes was established, and Ca/P ratios for dentin (1.49), hypomineralized dentin (0.32-0.46), cementum (1.51), and bone (1.68) were observed. Furthermore, varying Ca/Zn ratios were distinguished in adapted compared to normal tissues, such as in bone (855-2765) and in cementum (595-990), highlighting Zn as an influential element in prompting observed adaptive properties. Hence, results provide insights on mineral density gradients with elemental concentrations and elemental footprints that in turn could aid in elucidating mechanistic processes for pathologic formations.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Uncertainty quantification and global sensitivity analysis of the Los Alamos sea ice model

Changes in the high-latitude climate system have the potential to affect global climate through feedbacks with the atmosphere and connections with midlatitudes. Sea ice and climate models used to understand these changes have uncertainties that need to be characterized and quantified. We present a quantitative way to assess uncertainty in complex computer models, which is a new approach in the analysis of sea ice models. We characterize parametric uncertainty in the Los Alamos sea ice model (CICE) in a standalone configuration and quantify the sensitivity of sea ice area, extent, and volume with respect to uncertainty in 39 individual model parameters. Unlike common sensitivity analyses conducted in previous studies where parameters are varied one at a time, this study uses a global variance-based approach in which Sobol' sequences are used to efficiently sample the full 39-dimensional parameter space. We implement a fast emulator of the sea ice model whose predictions of sea ice extent, area, and volume are used to compute the Sobol' sensitivity indices of the 39 parameters. Main effects and interactions among the most influential parameters are also estimated by a nonparametric regression technique based on generalized additive models. A ranking based on the sensitivity indices indicates that model predictions are most sensitive to snow parameters such as snow conductivity and grain size, and the drainage of melt ponds. Lastly, it is recommended that research be prioritized toward more accurately determining these most influential parameter values by observational studies or by improving parameterizations in the sea ice model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Shifts in valence states in bimetallic MXenes revealed by electron energy-loss spectroscopy (EELS)

MXenes are an emergent class of two-dimensional materials with a very wide spectrum of promising applications. The synthesis of multiple MXenes, specifically solid-solution MXenes, allows fine tuning of their properties, expands their range of applications, and leads to enhanced performance. The functionality of solid-solution MXenes is closely related to the valence state of their constituents: transition metals, oxygen, carbon, and nitrogen. However, the impact of changes in the oxidation state of elements in MXenes is not well understood. In this work, three interrelated solid-solution MXene systems (Ti$_{2–y}$Nb$_y$CT$_x$, Nb$_{2–y}$V$_y$CT$_x$, and Ti$_{2–y}$V$_y$CT$_x$) were investigated with scanning transmission electron microscopy and electron energy-loss spectroscopy to determine the localized valence states of metals at the nanoscale. The analysis demonstrates changes in the electronic configuration of V upon modification of the overall composition and within individual MXene flakes. These shifts of oxidation state can explain the nonlinear optical and electronic features of solid-solution MXenes. Vanadium appears to be particularly sensitive to modification of the valence state, while titanium maintains the same oxidation state in Ti–Nb and Ti–V MXenes, regardless of stoichiometry. Here, the study also explains Nb's influential role in the previously observed electronic properties in the Nb–V and Nb–Ti systems.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Effects of Photovoltaic Module Materials and Design on Module Deformation Under Load

Quasi-static structural finite-element models of an aluminum-framed crystalline silicon photovoltaic module and a glass-glass thin-film module were constructed and validated against experimental measurements of deflection under uniform pressure loading. Specific practices in the computational representation of module assembly were identified as influential to matching experimental deflection observations. Additionally, parametric analyses using Latin hypercube sampling were performed to propagate input uncertainties related to module materials, dimensions, and tolerances into uncertainties in simulated deflection. Sensitivity analyses were performed on the uncertainty quantification datasets using linear correlation coefficients and variance-based sensitivity indices to elucidate key parameters influencing module deformation. Results identified edge tape and adhesive material properties as being strongly correlated to module deflection, suggesting that optimization of these materials could yield module stiffness gains at par with the conventionally structural parameters, such as glass thickness. This exercise verifies the applicability of finite-element models for accurately predicting mechanical behavior of solar modules and demonstrates a workflow for model-based parametric uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis. Finally, applications of this capability include the assessment of field environment loads, derivation of representative loading conditions for reduced-scale testing, and module design optimization, among others.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Meta-Analysis of Stressors from the Total Environment Associated with Children’s General Cognitive Ability

General cognitive ability, often referred to as ‘general intelligence’, comprises a variety of correlated abilities. Childhood general cognitive ability is a well-studied area of research and can be used to predict social outcomes and perceived success. Early life stage (e.g., prenatal, postnatal, toddler) exposures to stressors (i.e., chemical and non-chemical stressors from the total (built, natural, social) environment) can impact the development of childhood cognitive ability. Building from our systematic scoping review (Ruiz et al., 2016), we conducted a meta-analysis to evaluate more than 100 stressors related to cognitive development. Our meta-analysis identified 23 stressors with a significant increase in their likelihood to influence childhood cognitive ability by 10% or more, and 80 stressors were observed to have a statistically significant effect on cognitive ability. Stressors most impactful to cognition during the prenatal period were related to maternal health and the mother’s ability to access information relevant to a healthy pregnancy (e.g., diet, lifestyle). Stressors most impactful to cognition during the early childhood period were dietary nutrients (infancy), quality of social interaction (toddler), and exposure to toxic substances (throughout early childhood). In conducting this analysis, we examined the relative impact of real-world exposures on cognitive development to attempt to understand the inter-relationships between exposures to both chemical and non-chemical stressors and early developmental life stages. Our findings suggest that the stressors observed to be the most influential to childhood cognitive ability are not permanent and can be broadly categorized as activities/behaviors which can be modified to improve childhood cognition. This meta-analysis supports the idea that there are complex relationships between a child’s total environment and early cognitive development.

Nilsen, Frances M. (ORCID:0000000241936951)↗
DOE OSTI2016

Influence plots for LASSO

With many predictors in regression, fitting the full model can induce multicollinearity problems. Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operation (LASSO) is useful when the effects of many explanatory variables are sparse in a high-dimensional dataset. Influential points can have a disproportionate impact on the estimated values of model parameters. Here, this paper describes a new influence plot that can be used to increase understanding of the contributions of individual observations and the robustness of results. This can serve as a complement to other regression diagnostics techniques in the LASSO regression setting. Using this influence plot, we can find influential points and their impact on shrinkage of model parameters and model selection. Lastly, we provide two examples to illustrate the methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

EMPIRICAL VALIDATION OF MULTI-ZONE BUILDING AND HVAC SYSTEM MODELS UNDER UNCERTAINTY

This study implemented a framework of empirical validation of building energy models under uncertainty to a set of controlled experiments that aim to validate multi-zone building and HVAC system models. Energy models were created through iterative acquisitions of information and data and uses measurement data from various types of sensors as both inputs and as observations to validate predictions. Experimental and modeling uncertainties were quantified and propagated accordingly, and probabilistic accuracy metrics were used to evaluate the agreement between model predictions and observations under uncertainty. Sensitivity analysis was performed to identify the most influential uncertainties that will be prioritized to be addressed in the next steps. Current results of two cooling tests show an overall good agreement between predictions and observations on a set of HVAC system outputs despite considerable and influential uncertainty in DX cooling coil COP. Agreements on zone-level responses vary notably among individual rooms, likely because of significant uncertainties in room radiation heat gain and system supply air.

Li, Qi↗
DOE OSTI2019

Electrodissolution Inhibition of Gold Nanorods with Oxoanions

Metal nanoparticles experience varied chemical environments that can cause corrosion and dissolution in electronics, electrocatalysis, and sensing applications. Understanding oxidative dissolution is important for plasmonic nanoparticles because their optical properties strongly depend on size and shape. Here, we demonstrate that the addition of low relative concentrations of oxoanions to aqueous halide electrolyte solutions improves the morphological stability of plasmonic gold nanorods at anodic electrochemical potentials that otherwise induce complete oxidative electrodissolution. Single particle hyperspectral dark-field imaging and correlated scanning electron microscopy show that oxoanions alter the electrodissolution onset potential, electrodissolution pathway, and nanoparticle reaction heterogeneity, as compared to chloride-only electrolyte solutions. We identify five mechanistic contributors to the corrosion inhibition capabilities of oxoanions in the presence of chloride ions, with the aim of expanding the range of electrochemical sensing and catalysis applications for plasmonic metal nanoparticles. Of the contributors investigated, the pH, adsorption potential, and ionicity of the oxoanion are found to be the most influential factors, supporting the superior corrosion inhibition observed with bicarbonate and phosphate.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Separate the Role of Southern and Northern Extra‐Tropical Pacific in Tropical Pacific Climate Variability

Abstract Observational and modeling studies have elucidated the influential role played by the southern and northern extratropical Pacific (SEP and NEP) forcing in shaping dynamics of tropical Pacific climate variability. However, the relative importance of the NEP and SEP and the timescale on which they impact the tropics remain unclear. Using a linear inverse model (LIM) that selectively incorporates or excludes tropical‐extratropical coupling, we find a reduction in tropical interannual variability (∼40%) and low‐frequency (sub‐decadal to decadal) variability in the southeastern tropical Pacific region (∼70%) in the absence of SEP. Conversely, the absence of NEP yields no significant impact on tropical interannual variability but markedly diminishes low‐frequency variability in the central tropical Pacific region (∼70%). LIM and statistic diagnostics on CMIP6 models show the low‐frequency to total variability ratio in the tropical Pacific depending on their NEP and SEP representation. Models with more (less) low‐frequency power tend to show stronger NEP (SEP) dynamics.

Geology↗
DOE OSTI2018

Associations of maternal exposure to triclosan, parabens, and other phenols with prenatal maternal and neonatal thyroid hormone levels

Highlights: • Triclosan was associated with lower maternal total T4 during pregnancy. • 2,4-Dichlorophenol was associated with lower maternal free T4 during pregnancy. • Propyl paraben was associated with lower maternal TSH during pregnancy. • No chemicals were associated with neonatal TSH. Environmental phenols and parabens are commonly used in personal care products and other consumer products and human exposure to these chemicals is widespread. Although human and animal studies suggest an association between exposure to phenols and parabens and thyroid hormone levels, few studies have investigated the association of in utero exposure to these chemicals and thyroid hormones in pregnant women and their neonates. We measured four environmental phenols (triclosan, benzophenone-3, and 2,4- and 2,5-dichlorophenol), and three parabens (methyl-, propyl-, and butyl paraben) in urine collected from mothers at two time points during pregnancy as part of the CHAMACOS (Center for the Health Assessment of Mothers and Children of Salinas) study. We measured free thyroxine (T4), total T4, and thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) in serum of the pregnant women (N = 454) and TSH in their neonates (N = 365). We examined potential confounding by a large number of additional chemical exposures and used Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to select the most influential chemicals to include in regression models. We observed negative associations of prenatal urinary concentrations of propyl paraben and maternal TSH (β for two-fold increase = −3.26%, 95% CI: −5.55, −0.90) and negative associations of 2,4-dichlorophenol and maternal free T4 (β for two-fold increase = −0.05, 95% CI: −0.08, −0.02), after controlling for other chemical exposures. We observed negative associations of triclosan with maternal total T4 after controlling for demographic variables, but this association became non-significant after controlling for other chemicals (β for two-fold increase = −0.05, 95% CI: −0.11, 0.00). We found evidence that environmental phenols and parabens are associated with lower TSH and free T4 in pregnant women after controlling for related chemical exposures.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

A Scientific Data Provenance Harvester for Distributed Applications

Data provenance provides a way for scientists to observe how experimental data originates, conveys process history, and explains influential factors such as experimental rationale and associated environmental factors from system metrics measured at runtime. The US Department of Energy Office of Science Integrated end-to-end Performance Prediction and Diagnosis for Extreme Scientific Workflows (IPPD) project has developed a provenance harvester that is capable of collecting observations from file based evidence typically produced by distributed applications. To achieve this, file based evidence is extracted and transformed into an intermediate data format inspired in part by W3C CSV on the Web recommendations, called the Harvester Provenance Application Interface (HAPI) syntax. This syntax provides a general means to pre-stage provenance into messages that are both human readable and capable of being written to a provenance store, Provenance Environment (ProvEn). HAPI is being applied to harvest provenance from climate ensemble runs for Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME) project funded under the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Biological and Environmental Research (BER) Earth System Modeling (ESM) program. ACME informally provides provenance in a native form through configuration files, directory structures, and log files that contain success/failure indicators, code traces, and performance measurements. Because of its generic format, HAPI is also being applied to harvest tabular job management provenance from Belle II DIRAC scheduler relational database tables as well as other scientific applications that log provenance related information.

Stephan, Eric G.↗
DOE OSTI2017

Ionospheric acoustic and gravity wave activity above low-latitude thunderstorms

In this report, we study the correlation between thunderstorm activity and ionospheric gravity and acoustic waves in the low-latitude ionosphere. We use ionospheric total electron content (TEC) measurements from the Low Latitude Ionospheric Sensor Network (LISN) and lightning measurements from the World- Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN). We find that ionospheric acoustic waves show a strong diurnal pattern in summer, peaking in the pre-midnight time period. However, the peak magnitude does not correspond to thunderstorm area, and the peak time is significantly after the peak in thunderstorm activity. Wintertime acoustic wave activity has no discernable pattern in these data. The coverage area of ionospheric gravity waves in the summer was found to increase with increasing thunderstorm activity. Wintertime gravity wave activity has an observable diurnal pattern unrelated to thunderstorm activity. These findings show that while thunderstorms are not the only, or dominant source of ionospheric perturbations at low-latitudes, they do have an observable effect on gravity wave activity and could be influential in acoustic wave activity.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Financial Analysis of Battery Electric Transit Buses

A baseline bus fleet and battery electric bus investment scenario was developed based on the average or common parameters of existing battery electric bus (BEB) fleets. A discounted cashflow analysis was done that found the baseline fleet to have a net present value of $785,000 and simple payback of 3.3 years. The 33 main parameters were then swung ±50% to determine their relative influence on NPV and were ranked accordingly. Then parameter volatility was estimated by dividing the range of observed values by the baseline value. The parameters that are most influential and volatile were highlighted as the ones fleet managers should focus on when determining if BEBs are a good investment option for them. These top parameters are 1) BEB purchase price, 2) purchase price of foregone diesel bus, 3) grant amount, 4) maintenance costs of foregone diesel bus, 5) annual vehicle miles traveled.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗