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Avoiding Braess' Paradox Through Collective Intelligence

In an Ideal Shortest Path Algorithm (ISPA), at each moment each router in a network sends all of its traffic down the path that will incur the lowest cost to that traffic. In the limit of an infinitesimally small amount of traffic for a particular router, its routing that traffic via an ISPA is optimal, as far as cost incurred by that traffic is concerned. We demonstrate though that in many cases, due to the side-effects of one router's actions on another routers performance, having routers use ISPA's is suboptimal as far as global aggregate cost is concerned, even when only used to route infinitesimally small amounts of traffic. As a particular example of this we present an instance of Braess' paradox for ISPA'S, in which adding new links to a network decreases overall throughput. We also demonstrate that load-balancing, in which the routing decisions are made to optimize the global cost incurred by all traffic currently being routed, is suboptimal as far as global cost averaged across time is concerned. This is also due to "side-effects", in this case of current routing decision on future traffic. The theory of COllective INtelligence (COIN) is concerned precisely with the issue of avoiding such deleterious side-effects. We present key concepts from that theory and use them to derive an idealized algorithm whose performance is better than that of the ISPA, even in the infinitesimal limit. We present experiments verifying this, and also showing that a machine-learning-based version of this COIN algorithm in which costs are only imprecisely estimated (a version potentially applicable in the real world) also outperforms the ISPA, despite having access to less information than does the ISPA. In particular, this COIN algorithm avoids Braess' paradox.

Wolpert , David H.↗

Evolution, language and analogy in functional genomics

Almost a century ago, Wittgenstein pointed out that theory in science is intricately connected to language. This connection is not a frequent topic in the genomics literature. But a case can be made that functional genomics is today hindered by the paradoxes that Wittgenstein identified. If this is true, until these paradoxes are recognized and addressed, functional genomics will continue to be limited in its ability to extrapolate information from genomic sequences.

Evolution, Molecular↗

Measures and Interpretations of Vigilance Performance: Evidence Against the Detection Criterion

Operators' performance in a vigilance task is often assumed to depend on their choice of a detection criterion. When the signal rate is low this criterion is set high, causing the hit and false alarm rates to be low. With increasing time on task the criterion presumably tends to increase even further, thereby further decreasing the hit and false alarm rates. Virtually all of the empirical evidence for this simple interpretation is based on estimates of the bias measure Beta from signal detection theory. In this article, I describe a new approach to studying decision making that does not require the technical assumptions of signal detection theory. The results of this new analysis suggest that the detection criterion is never biased toward either response, even when the signal rate is low and the time on task is long. Two modifications of the signal detection theory framework are considered to account for this seemingly paradoxical result. The first assumes that the signal rate affects the relative sizes of the variances of the information distributions; the second assumes that the signal rate affects the logic of the operator's stopping rule. Actual or potential applications of this research include the improved training and performance assessment of operators in areas such as product quality control, air traffic control, and medical and clinical diagnosis.

Balakrishnan, J. D.↗

Regulation of body fluid volume and electrolyte concentrations in spaceflight

Despite a number of difficulties in performing experiments during weightlessness, a great deal of information has been obtained concerning the effects of spaceflight on the regulation of body fluid and electrolytes. Many paradoxes and questions remain, however. Although body mass, extracellular fluid volume, and plasma volume are reduced during spaceflight and remain so at landing, the changes in total body water are comparatively small. Serum or plasma sodium and osmolality have generally been unchanged or reduced during the spaceflight, and fluid intake is substantially reduced, especially during the first of flight. The diuresis that was predicted to be caused by weightlessness, has only rarely been observed as an increased urine volume. What has been well established by now, is the occurrence of a relative diuresis, where fluid intake decreases more than urine volume does. Urinary excretion of electrolytes has been variable during spaceflight, but retention of fluid and electrolytes at landing has been consistently observed. The glomerular filtration rate was significantly elevated during the SLS missions, and water and electrolyte loading tests have indicated that renal function is altered during readaptation to Earth's gravity. Endocrine control of fluid volumes and electrolyte concentrations may be altered during weightlessness, but levels of hormones in body fluids do not conform to predictions based on early hypotheses. Antidiuretic hormone is not suppressed, though its level is highly variable and its secretion may be affected by space motion sickness and environmental factors. Plasma renin activity and aldosterone are generally elevated at landing, consistent with sodium retention, but inflight levels have been variable. Salt intake may be an important factor influencing the levels of these hormones. The circadian rhythm of cortisol has undoubtedly contributed to its variability, and little is known yet about the influence of spaceflight on circadian rhythms. Atrial natriuretic peptide does not seem to play an important role in the control of natriuresis during spaceflight. Inflight activity of the sympathetic nervous system, assessed by measuring catecholamines and their metabolites and precursors in body fluids, generally seems to be no greater than on Earth, but this system is usually activated at landing. Collaborative experiments on the Mir and the International Space Station should provide more of the data needed from long-term flights, and perhaps help to resolve some of the discrepancies between U.S. and Russian data. The use of alternative methods that are easier to execute during spaceflight, such as collection of saliva instead of blood and urine, should permit more thorough study of circadian rhythms and rapid hormone changes in weightlessness. More investigations of dietary intake of fluid and electrolytes must be performed to understand regulatory processes. Additional hormones that may participate in these processes, such as other natriuretic hormones, should be determined during and after spaceflight. Alterations in body fluid volume and blood electrolyte concentrations during spaceflight have important consequences for readaptation to the 1-G environment. The current assessment of fluid and electrolyte status during weightlessness and at landing and our still incomplete understanding of the processes of adaptation to weightlessness and readaptation to Earth's gravity have resulted in the development of countermeasures that are only partly successful in reducing the postflight orthostatic intolerance experienced by astronauts and cosmonauts. More complete knowledge of these processes can be expected to produce countermeasures that are even more successful, as well as expand our comprehension of the range of adaptability of human physiologic processes.

NASA Discipline Number 18-10↗

Paradoxical monocular stereopsis and perspective vergence

The question of how to most effectively convey depth in a picture is a multifaceted problem, both because of potential limitations of the chosen medium (stereopsis, image motion), and because effectiveness can be defined in various ways. Practical applications usually focus on information transfer, i.e., effective techniques for evoking recognition of implied depth relationships, but this issue depends on subjective judgements which are difficult to scale when stimuli are above threshold. Two new approaches to this question are proposed here which are based on alternative criteria for effectiveness. Paradoxical monocular stereopsis is a remarkably compelling impression of depth which is evoked during one-eyed viewing of only certain illustrations; it can be unequivocally recognized because the feeling of depth collapses when one shifts to binocular viewing. An exploration of the stimulus properties which are effective for this phenomenon may contribute useful answers for the more general perceptual problem. Positive vergence is an eye-movement response associated with changes of fixation point within a picture which implies depth; it also arises only during monocular viewing. The response is directionally appropriate (i.e., apparently nearer objects evoke convergence, and vice versa), but the magnitude of the response can be altered consistently by making relatively minor changes in the illustration. The cross-subject agreement in changes of response magnitude would permit systematic exploration to determine which stimulus configurations are most effective in evoking perspective vergence, with quantitative answers based upon this involuntary reflex. It may well be that most effective pictures in this context will embody features which would increase effectiveness of pictures in a more general sense.

Enright, J. T.↗

The Joint Confidence Level Paradox: A History of Denial

This paper is intended to provide a reliable methodology for those tasked with generating price tags on construction (C0F) and research and development (R&D) activities in the NASA performance world. This document consists of a collection of cost-related engineering detail and project fulfillment information from early agency days to the present. Accurate historical detail is the first place to start when determining improved methodologies for future cost and schedule estimating. This paper contains a beneficial proposed cost estimating method for arriving at more reliable numbers for future submits. When comparing current cost and schedule methods with earlier cost and schedule approaches, it became apparent that NASA's organizational performance paradigm has morphed. Mission fulfillment speed has slowed and cost calculating factors have increased in 21st Century space exploration.

Butts, Glenn↗

Making Games Not Work: Paradoxes Embedded in Game-Based Training and Concepts for Overcoming Them

An interest in game-based training solutions is natural. All one has to do is watch someone fully engaged in a modern game to see the potential of harnessing that attention for training. However, the reality of game-based training has not fully satisfied these expectations. This paper explains two paradoxes that must be overcome for games to support training. These paradoxes are a result of the realities of the basic human condition clashing with the requirements of learning theory. 80th paradoxes arise from the concept of "engagement" that is central to games. The first comes from a more robust definition of engagement, which is the condition of Flow or Optimal Experience. Flow is the state game developers want to see in users. One aspect of Flow is loss of sense of self as the individual becomes immersed in the experience. The paradox arises because this loss of self directly contradicts the learning requirement of self-reflection. The second paradox comes from theories of play, which state in part that play requires a level of individual freedom. The contradiction arises when game-based play must be harnessed to an organizational training program or regimen. The paper will discuss these paradoxes in the context of an effort to design a game-based training modality to train combat medics and will close with a review of compensating strategies identified by the designers. The paper will provide information important to anyone interested in conceptualizing and designing game-based training.

Jones, Phillip N.↗

A Possible Explanation for the Z-R Parameter Inconsistency when Comparing Stratiform and Convective Rainfall

The well-known Z-R power law Z A R(sup b) uses two parameters, A and b, in order to relate rainfall rate R to measured weather radar reflectivity Z. A common method used by researchers is to compute Z and R from disdrometer data and then extract the A-b parameter pair from a log-linear line fit to a scatter plot of Z-R pairs. Even though it may seem far more truthful to extract the parameter pair from a fit of radar Z(sub R) versus gauge rainfall rate R(sub G), the extreme difference in spatial and temporal sampling volumes between radar and rain gauge creates a slew of problems that can generally only be solved by using rain gauge arrays and long sampling averages. Disdrometer derived A-b parameters are easily obtained and can provide information for the study of stratiform versus convective rainfall. However, an inconsistency appears when comparing averaged A-b pairs from various researchers. Values of b range from 1.26 to 1.51 for both stratiform and convective events. Paradoxically the values of A fall into three groups: 150 to 200 for convective; 200 to 400 for stratiform; and 400 to 500 again for convective. This apparent inconsistency can be explained by computing the A-b pair using the gamma DSD coupled with a modified drop terminal velocity model, v(D) alpha D(sup beta) - w, where w is a somewhat artificial constant vertical velocity of the air above the disdrometer. This model predicts three regions of A, corresponding to w less than 0, w = 0, and w greater than 0, which approximately matches observed data.

gamma DSD↗

Formation of Martian Gullies by the Action of Liquid Water Flowing Under Current Martian Environmental Conditions

Images from the Mars Orbiter Camera (MOC) on the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) spacecraft show geologically young small-scale features resembling terrestrial water-carved gullies. An improved understanding of these features has the potential to reveal important information about the hydrological system on Mars, which is of general interest to the planetary science community as well as the field of astrobiology and the search for life on Mars. The young geologic age of these gullies is often thought to be a paradox because liquid water is unstable at the Martian surface. Current temperatures and pressures are generally below the triple point of water (273 K, 6.1 mbar) so that liquid water will spontaneously boil and/or freeze. We therefore examine the flow of water on Mars to determine what conditions are consistent with the observed features of the gullies.

Heldmann, J. L.↗

Pigs in cyberspace

Exploration and colonization of the universe awaits, but Earth-adapted biological humans are ill-equipped to respond to the challenge. Machines have gone farther and seen more, limited though they presently are by insect-like behavior inflexibility. As they become smarter over the coming decades, space will be theirs. Organizations of robots of ever increasing intelligence and sensory and motor ability will expand and transform what they occupy, working with matter, space and time. As they grow, a smaller and smaller fraction of their territory will be undeveloped frontier. Competitive success will depend more and more on using already available matter and space in ever more refined and useful forms. The process, analogous to the miniaturization that makes today's computers a trillion times more powerful than the mechanical calculators of the past, will gradually transform all activity from grossly physical homesteading of raw nature, to minimum-energy quantum transactions of computation. The final frontier will be urbanized, ultimately into an arena where every bit of activity is a meaningful computation: the inhabited portion of the universe will be transformed into a cyberspace. Because it will use resources more efficiently, a mature cyberspace of the distant future will be effectively much bigger than the present physical universe. While only an infinitesimal fraction of existing matter and space is doing interesting work, in a well developed cyberspace every bit will be part of a relevant computation or storing a useful datum. Over time, more compact and faster ways of using space and matter will be invented, and used to restructure the cyberspace, effectively increasing the amount of computational spacetime per unit of physical spacetime. Computational speed-ups will affect the subjective experience of entities in the cyberspace in a paradoxical way. At first glimpse, there is no subjective effect, because everything, inside and outside the individual, speeds up equally. But, more subtly, speed-up produces an expansion of the cyber universe, because, as thought accelerates, more subjective time passes during the fixed (probably lightspeed) physical transit time of a message between a given pair of locations - so those fixed locations seem to grow farther apart. Also, as information storage is made continually more efficient through both denser utilization of matter and more efficient encodings, there will be increasingly more cyber-stuff between any two points. The effect may somewhat resemble the continuous-creation process in the old steady-state theory of the physical universe of Hoyle, Bondi and Gold, where hydrogen atoms appear just fast enough throughout the expanding cosmos to maintain a constant density.

Moravec, Hans↗

Carbon Dioxide Cycling, Climate, Impacts, and the Faint Young Sun

Evidence for relatively mild climates on ancient Earth and Mars has been a puzzle in light of the faint early sun. The geologic evidence, although far from conclusive, would appear to indicate that the surfaces of both planets were, if anything, warmer ca. 3-4 Ga than they are now. The astrophysical argument that the sun ought to have brightened approx. 30% since it reached the main sequence is hard to refute. There results a paradox between the icehouse we expect and the greenhouse we think we see. The usual fix has been to posit massive CO2 atmospheres, although reduced gases (e.g., NH3 or CH4 ) have had their partisans. Evidence against siderite in paleosols dated 2.2-2.75 Ga sets a rough upper limit of 30 PAL (present atmospheric levels) on pCO2 at that time. This is an order of magnitude short of what is needed to defeat the fainter sun. We present here an independent argument against high pCO2 on early Earth that applies not only to the Archean but yet more forcefully to the Hadean era. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

Zahnle, K. J.↗

The VLBA correlator: Real-time in the distributed era

The correlator is the signal processing engine of the Very Long Baseline Array (VLBA). Radio signals are recorded on special wideband (128 Mb/s) digital recorders at the 10 telescopes, with sampling times controlled by hydrogen maser clocks. The magnetic tapes are shipped to the Array Operations Center in Socorro, New Mexico, where they are played back simultaneously into the correlator. Real-time software and firmware controls the playback drives to achieve synchronization, compute models of the wavefront delay, control the numerous modules of the correlator, and record FITS files of the fringe visibilities at the back-end of the correlator. In addition to the more than 3000 custom VLSI chips which handle the massive data flow of the signal processing, the correlator contains a total of more than 100 programmable computers, 8-, 16- and 32-bit CPUs. Code is downloaded into front-end CPU's dependent on operating mode. Low-level code is assembly language, high-level code is C running under a RT OS. We use VxWorks on Motorola MVME147 CPU's. Code development is on a complex of SPARC workstations connected to the RT CPU's by Ethernet. The overall management of the correlation process is dependent on a database management system. We use Ingres running on a Sparcstation-2. We transfer logging information from the database of the VLBA Monitor and Control System to our database using Ingres/NET. Job scripts are computed and are transferred to the real-time computers using NFS, and correlation job execution logs and status flow back by the route. Operator status and control displays use windows on workstations, interfaced to the real-time processes by network protocols. The extensive network protocol support provided by VxWorks is invaluable. The VLBA Correlator's dependence on network protocols is an example of the radical transformation of the real-time world over the past five years. Real-time is becoming more like conventional computing. Paradoxically, 'conventional' computing is also adopting practices from the real-time world: semaphores, shared memory, light-weight threads, and concurrency. This appears to be a convergence of thinking.

Wells, D. C.↗

On the theory of quantum measurement

Many so called paradoxes of quantum mechanics are clarified when the measurement equipment is treated as a quantized system. Every measurement involves nonlinear processes. Self consistent formulations of nonlinear quantum optics are relatively simple. Hence optical measurements, such as the quantum nondemolition (QND) measurement of photon number, are particularly well suited for such a treatment. It shows that the so called 'collapse of the wave function' is not needed for the interpretation of the measurement process. Coherence of the density matrix of the signal is progressively reduced with increasing accuracy of the photon number determination. If the QND measurement is incorporated into the double slit experiment, the contrast ratio of the fringes is found to decrease with increasing information on the photon number in one of the two paths.

Haus, Hermann A.↗

X-Ray Absorbed, Broad-Lined, Red AGN and the Cosmic X-Ray Background

We have obtained XMM spectra for five red, 2MASS AGN, selected from a sample observed by Chandra to be X-ray bright and to cover a range of hardness ratios. Our results confirm the presence of substantial absorbing material in three sources which have optical classifications ranging from Type 1 to Type 2, with an intrinsically flat (hard) power law continuum indicated in the other two. The presence of both X-ray absorption and broad optical emission lines with the usual strength suggests either a small (nuclear) absorber or a favored viewing angle so as to cover the X-ray source but not the broad emission line region (BELR). A soft excess is detected in all three Type 1 sources. We speculate that this soft X-ray emission may arise in an extended region of ionized gas, perhaps linked with the polarized (scattered) light which is a feature of these sources. The spectral complexity revealed by XMM emphasizes the limitations of the low S/N Chandra data. Overall, the new XMM results strengthen our conclusions (Wilkes et al. 2002) that the observed X-ray continua of red AGN are unusually hard at energies greater than 2 keV. Whether due to substantial line-of-sight absorption or to an intrinsically hard or reflection-dominated spectrum, these 'red' AGN have an observed spectral form consistent with contributing significantly to the missing had absorbed population of the Cosmic X-ray Background (CXRB). When absorption and or reflection is taken into account, all these AGN have power law slopes typical of broad-line (Type 1) AGN (Gamma approximately 1.9). This appears to resolve the spectral paradox which for so long has existed between the CXRB and the AGN thought to be the dominant contributors. It also suggests two scenarios whereby Type 1 AGN/QSOs may be responsible for a significant fraction of the CXRB at energies above 2 keV: 1) X-ray absorbed AGN/QSOs with visible broad emission lines; 2) AGN/QSOs with complex spectra whose hardness greater than 2 keV is not detectable in the typically low S/N data of X-ray surveys. Even if absorption is present in only half of the population, the large number of 'red' AGN suggests a development of unification models, where the continuum source is surrounded, over a substantial solid angle, by the wind or atmosphere of an accretion disk/torus. X-ray observations of such AGN not only provide a check on the presence of absorption, but also a unique probe of the absorbing material. Improved information on their space density, in particular as a function of redshift, will soon be provided by Spitzer-Chandra wide area surveys, allowing better estimates of both the importance of red AGN to the full AGN population and their contribution to the CXRB.

Mushotzky, Richard↗

Thermocapillary Convection Due to a Stationary Bubble - A Paradox

We analyze the velocity and temperature fields at steady state due to thermocapillary convection around a gas bubble that is stationary in a liquid. A linear temperature field is imposed in the undisturbed liquid. Our interest is in investigating the effect of convective transport of momentum and energy on the velocity and temperature fields. We assume the pertinent physical properties to be constant, and that buoyant convection is negligible. Suitably defined Reynolds and Marangoni numbers are assumed to be small compared with unity. When both the Reynolds and Marangoni numbers are set equal to zero, a solution can be found. In this solution, far from the bubble, the velocity field decays as the inverse of the distance from the bubble, and the disturbance temperature field decays as the inverse of the square of this distance. We now attempt to obtain a solution when the Reynolds number is zero, but the Marangoni number is small, but non-zero, by a perturbation expansion in the Marangoni number. When the temperature field is expanded in a regular perturbation series in the Marangoni number, we show that the problem for the first correction field is ill-posed. The governing equation for this perturbation field contains an inhomogeneity, and the corresponding particular solution neither decays far from the bubble, nor can be canceled by a homogeneous solution. Additional information is included in the original extended abstract.

Balasubramaniam, R.↗

Interpretation of TOMS Observations of Tropical Tropospheric Ozone with a Global Model and In Situ Observations

We interpret the distribution of tropical tropospheric ozone columns (TTOCs) from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) by using a global three-dimensional model of tropospheric chemistry (GEOS-CHEM) and additional information from in situ observations. The GEOS-CHEM TTOCs capture 44% of the variance of monthly mean TOMS TTOCs from the convective cloud differential method (CCD) with no global bias. Major discrepancies are found over northern Africa and south Asia where the TOMS TTOCs do not capture the seasonal enhancements from biomass burning found in the model and in aircraft observations. A characteristic feature of these northern topical enhancements, in contrast to southern tropical enhancements, is that they are driven by the lower troposphere where the sensitivity of TOMS is poor due to Rayleigh scattering. We develop an efficiency correction to the TOMS retrieval algorithm that accounts for the variability of ozone in the lower troposphere. This efficiency correction increases TTOC's over biomass burning regions by 3-5 Dobson units (DU) and decreases them by 2-5 DU over oceanic regions, improving the agreement between CCD TTOCs and in situ observations. Applying the correction to CCD TTOCs reduces by approximately DU the magnitude of the "tropical Atlantic paradox" [Thompson et al, 2000], i.e. the presence of a TTOC enhancement over the southern tropical Atlantic during the northern African biomass burning season in December-February. We reproduce the remainder of the paradox in the model and explain it by the combination of upper tropospheric ozone production from lightning NOx, peristent subsidence over the southern tropical Atlantic as part of the Walker circulation, and cross-equatorial transport of upper tropospheric ozone from northern midlatitudes in the African "westerly duct." These processes in the model can also account for the observed 13-17 DU persistent wave-1 pattern in TTOCs with a maximum above the tropical Atlantic and a minimum over the tropical Pacific during all seasons. The photochemical effects of mineral dust have only a minor role on the modeled distribution of TTOCs, including over northern Africa, due to multiple competing effects. The photochemical effects of mineral dust globally decease annual mean OH concentrations by 9%. A global lightning NOx source of 6 Tg N yr(sup -1) in the model produces a simulation that is most consistent with TOMS and in situ observations.

Martin, Randall V.↗

Tropospheric Ozone Pollution from Space: New Views from the TOMS (Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer) Instrument

New products from the TOMS (Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer) >satellite instrument can resolve pollution events in tropical and mid-latitudes, Over the past several years, we have developed tropospheric ozone data sets by two methods. The modified-residual technique [Hudson and Thompson, 1998; Thompson and Hudson, 1999] uses v. 7 TOMS total ozone and is applicable to tropical regimes in which the wave-one pattern in total ozone is observed. The TOMSdirect method [Hudson et at., 2000] represents a new algorithm that uses TOMS radiances to extract tropospheric ozone in regions of constant stratospheric ozone and tropospheric ozone displaying high mixing ratios and variability characteristic of pollution, Absorbing aerosols (dust and smoke; Herman et at., 1997 Hsu et al., 1999), a standard TOMS product, provide transport and/or source marker information to interpret tropospheric ozone. For the Nimbus 7/TOMS observing period (1979-1992), modified-residual TTO (tropical tropospheric ozone) appears as two maps/month at I-degree latitude 2-degree longitude resolution at a homepage and digital data are available (20S to 20N) by ftp at http://metosrv2. umd.edu/~tropo/ 14y_data.d. Preliminary modified-residual TTO data from the operational Earth-Probe/TOMS (1996- present) are posted in near-real-time at the same website. Analyses with the new tropospheric ozone and aerosol data are illustrated by the following (I)Signals in tropical tropospheric ozone column and smoke amount during ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) events, e.g. 1982-1983 and the intense ENSO induced biomass fires of 1997-1998 over the Indonesian region [Thompson et a[, 2000a, Thompson and Hudson, 1999]. (2) Trends in tropospheric ozone and smoke aerosols in various tropical regions (Atlantic, Pacific, Africa, Brazil). No significant trends were found for ozone from1980-1990 [Thompson and Hudson, 19991 although smoke aerosols increased during the period [Hsu et al.,1999]. (3) Temporal and spatial offsets ("paradoxes") in tropical tropospheric ozone and smoke aerosol in regions of greatest tropical biomass burning [Thompson et at., 1996;2000b]. (4) Trans-boundary pollution tracking. With an air parcel (trajectory) model, smoke aerosol and ozone and dust plumes can be tracked across oceans (e.g., Asia to North America; North America to Europe) and national boundaries, e.g. Indonesia to Singapore and Malaysia during the 1997 ENSO fires.

Thompson, Anne M.↗