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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Bayesian Approach to Estimation of Water Table Elevations Using Historical Rasters as Prior Information 2019 - 20430

In cases of complex but only partially known geology and a lack of spatial control in observation well locations, water table elevation estimation is very challenging. In some cases, auxiliary information, such as observations of the movement of tracers, operation of injection and extraction wells, and calibration of groundwater models against the historical elevation data, can be combined with expert judgement to estimate flow directions in areas of sparse data and to aid in the production of more reliable contour maps (and associated rasters) than could be produced by relying on sparse well elevation data alone. Given a historical sequence of these raster maps, the question arises how to automate, to the extent possible, the process of producing new raster maps to reflect data from previous times, the current data and the operation of expert judgement. One solution is to adopt a Bayesian point of view and to regard the historical well elevation data, auxiliary information and historical raster maps as prior information. The well elevations for water table wells, as well as those for injection/extraction wells and the data associated with other relevant variables, can be viewed as predictors for the raster surface. From this prior information, we can, conditional on the values of these predictors for a new time period, compute an expected value map and a standard deviation map for the new raster. These then can be taken to specify a prior predictive distribution for the pixels in the new raster map. Then we condition the pixels, corresponding to water level observation wells within the raster, on the observed values in those wells (which in general will differ from the regression estimate) for the new time period. Given the smoothness of the water table surface, we then smooth the surface of deviations from the mean surface, based on the variograms of the historical rasters, and add this smoothed surface to the regression mean surface. The error structure of the produced raster map is defined by the regression error structure and the error due to smoothing based on the estimated variograms. This methodology has been developed and is being further refined for groundwater monitoring and remediation at LANL. It is a very flexible method that can also be applied with a variety of other predictors applied to model the water level wells in the area of interest over the historical record. The smoothness of the spatial process and its possible evolution over time can then be estimated from the residuals from this regression. This can be augmented by expert hydrogeological opinion based on site topography and hydrogeology. (authors)

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Enhancing DESI DR1 full-shape analyses using HOD-informed priors

We present an analysis of DESI Data Release 1 (DR1) that incorporates Halo Occupation Distribution (HOD)-informed priors into Full-Shape (FS) modeling of the power spectrum based on cosmological perturbation theory (PT). By leveraging physical insights from the galaxy-halo connection, these HOD-informed priors on nuisance parameters substantially mitigate projection effects in extended cosmological models that allow for dynamical dark energy. The resulting credible intervals now encompass the posterior maximum from the baseline analysis using gaussian priors, eliminating a significant posterior shift observed in baseline studies. In the ΛCDM framework, a combined DESI DR1 FS information and constraints from the DESI DR1 baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) — including Big Bang Nucleosynthesis (BBN) constraints and a weak prior on the scalar spectral index — yields Ω m = 0.2994 ± 0.0090 and σ 8 = 0.836$^{+0.024}_{-0.027}$, representing improvements of approximately 4% and 23% over the baseline analysis, respectively. For the w 0 w a CDM model, our results from various data combinations are highly consistent, with all configurations converging to a region with w 0 > -1 and w a < 0. This convergence not only suggests intriguing hints of dynamical dark energy but also underscores the robustness of our HOD-informed prior approach in delivering reliable cosmological constraints.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

The clustering of galaxies in the completed SDSS-III Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey: Double-probe measurements from BOSS galaxy clustering and Planck data – towards an analysis without informative priors

Here, we develop a new methodology called double-probe analysis with the aim of minimizing informative priors in the estimation of cosmological parameters. We extract the dark-energy-model-independent cosmological constraints from the joint data sets of Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (BOSS) galaxy sample and Planck cosmic microwave background (CMB) measurement. We measure the mean values and covariance matrix of {R, l a , Ω b h 2 , n s , log(A s ), Ω k , H(z), D A (z), f(z)σ 8 (z)}, which give an efficient summary of Planck data and 2-point statistics from BOSS galaxy sample, where R = √Ω m H 2 0 , and l a = πr(z * )/r s (z * ), z * is the redshift at the last scattering surface, and r(z * ) and r s (z * ) denote our comoving distance to z * and sound horizon at z * respectively. The advantage of this method is that we do not need to put informative priors on the cosmological parameters that galaxy clustering is not able to constrain well, i.e. Ω b h 2 and n s . Using our double-probe results, we obtain Ω m = 0.304 ± 0.009, H 0 = 68.2 ± 0.7, and σ 8 = 0.806 ± 0.014 assuming ΛCDM; and Ω k = 0.002 ± 0.003 and w = –1.00 ± 0.07 assuming owCDM. The results show no tension with the flat ΛCDM cosmological paradigm. By comparing with the full-likelihood analyses with fixed dark energy models, we demonstrate that the double-probe method provides robust cosmological parameter constraints which can be conveniently used to study dark energy models. We extend our study to measure the sum of neutrino mass and obtain Σm ν < 0.10/0.22 (68%/95%) assuming ΛCDM and Σm ν < 0.26/0.52 (68%/95%) assuming wCDM. This paper is part of a set that analyses the final galaxy clustering dataset from BOSS.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

SU-D-206-04: Iterative CBCT Scatter Shading Correction Without Prior Information

Purpose: To estimate and remove the scatter contamination in the acquired projection of cone-beam CT (CBCT), to suppress the shading artifacts and improve the image quality without prior information. Methods: The uncorrected CBCT images containing shading artifacts are reconstructed by applying the standard FDK algorithm on CBCT raw projections. The uncorrected image is then segmented to generate an initial template image. To estimate scatter signal, the differences are calculated by subtracting the simulated projections of the template image from the raw projections. Since scatter signals are dominantly continuous and low-frequency in the projection domain, they are estimated by low-pass filtering the difference signals and subtracted from the raw CBCT projections to achieve the scatter correction. Finally, the corrected CBCT image is reconstructed from the corrected projection data. Since an accurate template image is not readily segmented from the uncorrected CBCT image, the proposed scheme is iterated until the produced template is not altered. Results: The proposed scheme is evaluated on the Catphan©600 phantom data and CBCT images acquired from a pelvis patient. The result shows that shading artifacts have been effectively suppressed by the proposed method. Using multi-detector CT (MDCT) images as reference, quantitative analysis is operated to measure the quality of corrected images. Compared to images without correction, the method proposed reduces the overall CT number error from over 200 HU to be less than 50 HU and can increase the spatial uniformity. Conclusion: An iterative strategy without relying on the prior information is proposed in this work to remove the shading artifacts due to scatter contamination in the projection domain. The method is evaluated in phantom and patient studies and the result shows that the image quality is remarkably improved. The proposed method is efficient and practical to address the poor image quality issue of CBCT images. This work is supported by the Zhejiang Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. LR16F010001), National High-tech R&D Program for Young Scientists by the Ministry of Science and Technology of China (Grant No. 2015AA020917).

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2010

Minimally Informative Prior Distributions for PSA

A salient feature of Bayesian inference is its ability to incorporate information from a variety of sources into the inference model, via the prior distribution (hereafter simply “the prior”). However, over-reliance on old information can lead to priors that dominate new data. Some analysts seek to avoid this by trying to work with a minimally informative prior distribution. Another reason for choosing a minimally informative prior is to avoid the often-voiced criticism of subjectivity in the choice of prior. Minimally informative priors fall into two broad classes: 1) so-called noninformative priors, which attempt to be completely objective, in that the posterior distribution is determined as completely as possible by the observed data, the most well known example in this class being the Jeffreys prior, and 2) priors that are diffuse over the region where the likelihood function is nonnegligible, but that incorporate some information about the parameters being estimated, such as a mean value. In this paper, we compare four approaches in the second class, with respect to their practical implications for Bayesian inference in Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA). The most commonly used such prior, the so-called constrained noninformative prior, is a special case of the maximum entropy prior. This is formulated as a conjugate distribution for the most commonly encountered aleatory models in PSA, and is correspondingly mathematically convenient; however, it has a relatively light tail and this can cause the posterior mean to be overly influenced by the prior in updates with sparse data. A more informative prior that is capable, in principle, of dealing more effectively with sparse data is a mixture of conjugate priors. A particular diffuse nonconjugate prior, the logistic-normal, is shown to behave similarly for some purposes. Finally, we review the so-called robust prior. Rather than relying on the mathematical abstraction of entropy, as does the constrained noninformative prior, the robust prior places a heavy-tailed Cauchy prior on the canonical parameter of the aleatory model.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluation of Weakly Informed Priors for FLEX Data

On behalf of the U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has reviewed the development and use of “weakly informed prior” (WIP) probability distributions to obtain industry-wide failure probability and rate distributions for portable “FLEX” equipment, as documented in the Pressurized Water Reactor Owner’s Group (PWROG) report, FLEX Equipment Data Collection and Analysis (PWROG 18043-P) by MM Degonish. The review includes a description of the methods used by the PWROG analysts. It also includes an implementation of those methods for comparison purposes and an implementation of two constrained-noninformative (CN) distributions for further WIP comparisons. The report documents several issues that the review identified in the development of the WIP distributions. They relate to the quality and representativeness of the current portable “FLEX” component data, the choice of informed distributions for related installed components, and the lack of verification for the factors chosen to weaken the information from the installed components. Two errors occurred in the computations: the posterior distribution of the WIP was used to modify the WIP itself, resulting in a lack of independence between the WIP and the data; and an error was made in the conversion of WIP mean and variance values to beta distributions. The INL reviewers think the WIP distributions presented in the report are untenable for use in risk assessments at the present time because of these issues.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2015

WE-G-207-07: Iterative CT Shading Correction Method with No Prior Information

Purpose: Shading artifacts are caused by scatter contamination, beam hardening effects and other non-ideal imaging condition. Our Purpose is to propose a novel and general correction framework to eliminate low-frequency shading artifacts in CT imaging (e.g., cone-beam CT, low-kVp CT) without relying on prior information. Methods: Our method applies general knowledge of the relatively uniform CT number distribution in one tissue component. Image segmentation is applied to construct template image where each structure is filled with the same CT number of that specific tissue. By subtracting the ideal template from CT image, the residual from various error sources are generated. Since the forward projection is an integration process, the non-continuous low-frequency shading artifacts in the image become continuous and low-frequency signals in the line integral. Residual image is thus forward projected and its line integral is filtered using Savitzky-Golay filter to estimate the error. A compensation map is reconstructed on the error using standard FDK algorithm and added to the original image to obtain the shading corrected one. Since the segmentation is not accurate on shaded CT image, the proposed scheme is iterated until the variation of residual image is minimized. Results: The proposed method is evaluated on a Catphan600 phantom, a pelvic patient and a CT angiography scan for carotid artery assessment. Compared to the one without correction, our method reduces the overall CT number error from >200 HU to be <35 HU and increases the spatial uniformity by a factor of 1.4. Conclusion: We propose an effective iterative algorithm for shading correction in CT imaging. Being different from existing algorithms, our method is only assisted by general anatomical and physical information in CT imaging without relying on prior knowledge. Our method is thus practical and attractive as a general solution to CT shading correction. This work is supported by the National Science Foundation of China (NSFC Grant No. 81201091), National High Technology Research and Development Program of China (863 program, Grant No. 2015AA020917), and Fund Project for Excellent Abroad Scholar Personnel in Science and Technology.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

SU-G-JeP3-04: Estimating 4D CBCT from Prior Information and Extremely Limited Angle Projections Using Structural PCA and Weighted Free-Form Deformation

Purpose: To investigate the feasibility of using structure-based principal component analysis (PCA) motion-modeling and weighted free-form deformation to estimate on-board 4D-CBCT using prior information and extremely limited angle projections for potential 4D target verification of lung radiotherapy. Methods: A technique for lung 4D-CBCT reconstruction has been previously developed using a deformation field map (DFM)-based strategy. In the previous method, each phase of the 4D-CBCT was generated by deforming a prior CT volume. The DFM was solved by a motion-model extracted by global PCA and a free-form deformation (GMM-FD) technique, using data fidelity constraint and the deformation energy minimization. In this study, a new structural-PCA method was developed to build a structural motion-model (SMM) by accounting for potential relative motion pattern changes between different anatomical structures from simulation to treatment. The motion model extracted from planning 4DCT was divided into two structures: tumor and body excluding tumor, and the parameters of both structures were optimized together. Weighted free-form deformation (WFD) was employed afterwards to introduce flexibility in adjusting the weightings of different structures in the data fidelity constraint based on clinical interests. XCAT (computerized patient model) simulation with a 30 mm diameter lesion was simulated with various anatomical and respirational changes from planning 4D-CT to onboard volume. The estimation accuracy was evaluated by the Volume-Percent-Difference (VPD)/Center-of-Mass-Shift (COMS) between lesions in the estimated and “ground-truth” on board 4D-CBCT. Results: Among 6 different XCAT scenarios corresponding to respirational and anatomical changes from planning CT to on-board using single 30° on-board projections, the VPD/COMS for SMM-WFD was reduced to 10.64±3.04%/1.20±0.45mm from 21.72±9.24%/1.80±0.53mm for GMM-FD. Using 15° orthogonal projections, the VPD/COMS was further reduced to 1.91±0.86%/0.31±0.42mm based on SMM-WFD. Conclusion: Compared to GMM-FD technique, the SMM-WFD technique can substantially improve the 4D-CBCT estimation accuracy using extremely small scan angles to provide ultra-fast 4D verification. This work was supported by the National Institutes of Health under Grant No. R01-CA184173 and a research grant from Varian Medical Systems.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2005

An Ensemble Approach to Building Mercer Kernels with Prior Information

This paper presents a new methodology for automatic knowledge driven data mining based on the theory of Mercer Kernels, which are highly nonlinear symmetric positive definite mappings from the original image space to a very high, possibly dimensional feature space. we describe a new method called Mixture Density Mercer Kernels to learn kernel function directly from data, rather than using pre-defined kernels. These data adaptive kernels can encode prior knowledge in the kernel using a Bayesian formulation, thus allowing for physical information to be encoded in the model. Specifically, we demonstrate the use of the algorithm in situations with extremely small samples of data. We compare the results with existing algorithms on data from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) and demonstrate the method's superior performance against standard methods. The code for these experiments has been generated with the AUTOBAYES tool, which automatically generates efficient and documented C/C++ code from abstract statistical model specifications. The core of the system is a schema library which contains templates for learning and knowledge discovery algorithms like different versions of EM, or numeric optimization methods like conjugate gradient methods. The template instantiation is supported by symbolic-algebraic computations, which allows AUTOBAYES to find closed-form solutions and, where possible, to integrate them into the code.

Srivastava, Ashok N.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Structure-aware Initialization via Numerical Continuation and Informed Priors

Scientific machine learning (SciML) often operates in ill-conditioned, weakly identifiable regimes due to limited data or indirect observations. In such settings, optimization and inference are highly sensitive to the starting point, making initialization--often under-reported--a consequential degree of freedom. Random initialization is not a neutral default as it induces an implicit prior over candidate solutions and can systematically bias the result, producing large run-to-run variability. Here, we formalize this view by treating initialization as a hidden confounder in SciML and develop a unifying theory for structure-aware initialization via numerical continuation, constructing warm starts from related problem instances. Across representative tasks, including physics-informed neural networks, maximum likelihood estimation, and variational inference, warm starts have been shown to consistently reduce optimization effort and improve reliability.

Data integrity↗
DOE OSTI2016

SU-F-J-23: Field-Of-View Expansion in Cone-Beam CT Reconstruction by Use of Prior Information

Purpose: Cone-beam CT (CBCT) has become an integral part of online patient setup in an image-guided radiation therapy (IGRT). In addition, the utility of CBCT for dose calculation has actively been investigated. However, the limited size of field-of-view (FOV) and resulted CBCT image with a lack of peripheral area of patient body prevents the reliability of dose calculation. In this study, we aim to develop an FOV expanded CBCT in IGRT system to allow the dose calculation. Methods: Three lung cancer patients were selected in this study. We collected the cone-beam projection images in the CBCT-based IGRT system (X-ray volume imaging unit, ELEKTA), where FOV size of the provided CBCT with these projections was 410 × 410 mm{sup 2} (normal FOV). Using these projections, CBCT with a size of 728 × 728 mm{sup 2} was reconstructed by a posteriori estimation algorithm including a prior image constrained compressed sensing (PICCS). The treatment planning CT was used as a prior image. To assess the effectiveness of FOV expansion, a dose calculation was performed on the expanded CBCT image with region-of-interest (ROI) density mapping method, and it was compared with that of treatment planning CT as well as that of CBCT reconstructed by filtered back projection (FBP) algorithm. Results: A posteriori estimation algorithm with PICCS clearly visualized an area outside normal FOV, whereas the FBP algorithm yielded severe streak artifacts outside normal FOV due to under-sampling. The dose calculation result using the expanded CBCT agreed with that using treatment planning CT very well; a maximum dose difference was 1.3% for gross tumor volumes. Conclusion: With a posteriori estimation algorithm, FOV in CBCT can be expanded. Dose comparison results suggested that the use of expanded CBCTs is acceptable for dose calculation in adaptive radiation therapy. This study has been supported by KAKENHI (15K08691).

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Characterizing volumetric strain at Brady Hot Springs, Nevada, USA using geodetic data, numerical models and prior information

The geothermal field at Brady Hot Springs, Nevada has subsided over the past decade. Between 2004 and 2014, the rate of downward-vertical displacement was on the order of 10 mm yr -1 , as measured by two independent geodetic techniques: interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) and Global Positioning System. The observed deformation field forms an approximately elliptical bowl that is 4 km long and aligned with the trace of the NNE striking normal fault system. We use modelling to estimate the plausibility of pressure changes or thermal contraction as the cause of the observed subsidence. As a result, Bayesian inference favours with ‘very strong evidence’ thermal contraction over other hypotheses as the dominant driving mechanism for the observed subsidence. Using InSAR data spanning from 2016 July 22 to 2017 August 22, we estimate the volume change rate in the significantly deforming volume to be (-29 ± 3) thousand m 3 yr -1 and the total rate of change in thermal energy between -53 and -79 MW. We infer the total volume of cubes where the estimated volumetric strain rate is significantly different from zero with 95 per cent confidence to be 119 million m 3 . We find that the main region of significant cooling occurs between the injection and production well locations. This result supports the idea that highly permeable conduits along faults channel fluids from shallow aquifers to the deep reservoir tapped by the production wells.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Thermodynamically informed priors for uncertainty propagation in first-principles statistical mechanics

Here, this work demonstrates how first-principles statistical mechanics approaches within a Bayesian framework can quantify and propagate uncertainties to downstream thermodynamic calculations. To address the issue of Bayesian prior selection, knowledge of 0 K ground states in the material system of interest is incorporated into the prior. The effectiveness of this framework is shown by creating a phase diagram for the fcc zirconium nitride system, including confidence intervals on order-disorder transition temperatures.

Bayesian methods↗
DOE OSTI2017

ASTROPHYSICAL PRIOR INFORMATION AND GRAVITATIONAL-WAVE PARAMETER ESTIMATION

The detection of electromagnetic counterparts to gravitational waves (GWs) has great promise for the investigation of many scientific questions. While it is well known that certain orientation parameters can reduce uncertainty in other related parameters, it was also hoped that the detection of an electromagnetic signal in conjunction with a GW could augment the measurement precision of the mass and spin from the gravitational signal itself. That is, knowledge of the sky location, inclination, and redshift of a binary could break degeneracies between these extrinsic, coordinate-dependent parameters and the physical parameters that are intrinsic to the binary. In this paper, we investigate this issue by assuming perfect knowledge of extrinsic parameters, and assessing the maximal impact of this knowledge on our ability to extract intrinsic parameters. We recover similar gains in extrinsic recovery to earlier work; however, we find only modest improvements in a few intrinsic parameters—namely the primary component’s spin. We thus conclude that, even in the best case, the use of additional information from electromagnetic observations does not improve the measurement of the intrinsic parameters significantly.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗