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This report examines how wind and solar integration studies have evolved, what analysis techniques work, what common mistakes are still made, what improvements are likely to be made in the near future, and why calculating integration costs is such a difficult problem and should be undertaken carefully, if at all.
Integration costs are generally manageable, but calculating costs is challenging.
This research presents a systematic approach to evaluating the costs of integrating new generation and operational procedures into an existing power system, and the methodology is independent of the type of change or nature of the generation. The work was commissioned by the U.S. Department of Energy and performed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory to investigate three integration cost-related questions: (1) How does the addition of new generation affect a system's operational costs, (2) How do generation mix and operating parameters and procedures affect costs, and (3) How does the amount of variable generation (non-dispatchable wind and solar) impact the accuracy of natural gas orders? A detailed operational analysis was performed for seven sets of experiments: variable generation, large conventional generation, generation mix, gas prices, fast-start generation, self-scheduling, and gas supply constraints. For each experiment, four components of integration costs were examined: cycling costs, non-cycling VO&M costs, fuel costs, and reserves provisioning costs. The investigation was conducted with PLEXOS production cost modeling software utilizing an updated version of the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers 118-bus test system overlaid with projected operating loads from the Western Electricity Coordinating Council for the Sacramento Municipal Utility District, Puget Sound Energy, and Public Service Colorado in the year 2020. The test system was selected in consultation with an industry-based technical review committee to be a reasonable approximation of an interconnection yet small enough to allow the research team to investigate a large number of scenarios and sensitivity combinations. The research should prove useful to market designers, regulators, utilities, and others who want to better understand how system changes can affect production costs.
When someone mentions integration costs, thoughts of the costs of integrating renewable generation into an existing system come to mind. We think about how variability and uncertainty can increase power system cycling costs as increasing amounts of wind or solar generation are incorporated into the generation mix. However, seldom do we think about what happens to system costs when new baseload generation is added to an existing system or when generation self-schedules. What happens when a highly flexible combined-cycle plant is added? Do system costs go up, or do they go down? Are other, non-cycling, maintenance costs impacted? In this paper we investigate six technologies and operating practices--including VG, baseload generation, generation mix, gas prices, self-scheduling, and fast-start generation--and how changes in these areas can impact a system's operating costs. This paper provides a working definition of integration costs and four components of variable costs. It describes the study approach and how a production cost modeling-based method was used to determine the cost effects, and, as a part of the study approach section, it describes the test system and data used for the comparisons. Finally, it presents the research findings, and, in closing, suggests three areas for future work.
The question of wind integration cost has received much attention in the past several years. The methodological challenges to calculating integration costs are discussed in this paper. There are other sources of integration cost unrelated to wind energy. A performance-based approach would be technology neutral, and would provide price signals for all technology types. However, it is difficult to correctly formulate such an approach. Determining what is and is not an integration cost is challenging. Another problem is the allocation of system costs to one source. Because of significant nonlinearities, this can prove to be impossible to determine in an accurate and objective way.
This presentation summarizes integration costs.
This presentation was given at the 2017 NREL Workshop 'Benchmarking Distribution Grid Integration Costs Under High Distributed PV Penetrations.' It provides a brief overview of recent and ongoing NREL work on distribution system grid integration costs, as well as challenges and needs from the community.
This discussion of the recommended practice (RP) 57R-09 of AACE International defines the integrated analysis of schedule and cost risk to estimate the appropriate level of cost and schedule contingency reserve on projects. The main contribution of this RP is to include the impact of schedule risk on cost risk and hence on the need for cost contingency reserves. Additional benefits include the prioritizing of the risks to cost, some of which are risks to schedule, so that risk mitigation may be conducted in a cost-effective way, scatter diagrams of time-cost pairs for developing joint targets of time and cost, and probabilistic cash flow which shows cash flow at different levels of certainty. Integrating cost and schedule risk into one analysis based on the project schedule loaded with costed resources from the cost estimate provides both: (1) more accurate cost estimates than if the schedule risk were ignored or incorporated only partially, and (2) illustrates the importance of schedule risk to cost risk when the durations of activities using labor-type (time-dependent) resources are risky. Many activities such as detailed engineering, construction or software development are mainly conducted by people who need to be paid even if their work takes longer than scheduled. Level-of-effort resources, such as the project management team, are extreme examples of time-dependent resources, since if the project duration exceeds its planned duration the cost of these resources will increase over their budgeted amount. The integrated cost-schedule risk analysis is based on: - A high quality CPM schedule with logic tight enough so that it will provide the correct dates and critical paths during simulation automatically without manual intervention. - A contingency-free estimate of project costs that is loaded on the activities of the schedule. - Resolves inconsistencies between cost estimate and schedule that often creep into those documents as project execution proceeds. - Good-quality risk data that are usually collected in risk interviews of the project team, management and others knowledgeable in the risk of the project. The risks from the risk register are used as the basis of the risk data in the risk driver method. The risk driver method is based in the fundamental principle that identifiable risks drive overall cost and schedule risk. - A Monte Carlo simulation software program that can simulate schedule risk, burn WM2012 rate risk and time-independent resource risk. The results include the standard histograms and cumulative distributions of possible cost and time results for the project. However, by simulating both cost and time simultaneously we can collect the cost-time pairs of results and hence show the scatter diagram ('football chart') that indicates the joint probability of finishing on time and on budget. Also, we can derive the probabilistic cash flow for comparison with the time-phased project budget. Finally the risks to schedule completion and to cost can be prioritized, say at the P-80 level of confidence, to help focus the risk mitigation efforts. If the cost and schedule estimates including contingency reserves are not acceptable to the project stakeholders the project team should conduct risk mitigation workshops and studies, deciding which risk mitigation actions to take, and re-run the Monte Carlo simulation to determine the possible improvement to the project's objectives. Finally, it is recommended that the contingency reserves of cost and of time, calculated at a level that represents an acceptable degree of certainty and uncertainty for the project stakeholders, be added as a resource-loaded activity to the project schedule for strategic planning purposes. The risk analysis described in this paper is correct only for the current plan, represented by the schedule. The project contingency reserve of time and cost that are the main results of this analysis apply if that plan is to be followed. Of course project managers have the option of re-planning and re-scheduling in the face of new facts, in part by mitigating risk. This analysis identifies the high-priority risks to cost and to schedule, which assist the project manager in planning further risk mitigation. Some project managers reject the results and argue that they cannot possibly be so late or so overrun. Those project managers may be wasting an opportunity to mitigate risk and get a more favorable outcome. (authors)
The study described in this chapter demonstrates the benefits of BA consolidation with the help of a detailed WECC system model and advanced methodology, which is also described in this chapter. The study aims to determine the potential savings in production cost and reduction in balancing reserve requirements in the WECC system. The study has found that effective use of the diversity in load and variable generation over a wide area can indeed help to achieve significant savings. The implementation cost for the consolidation was beyond the scope of this study. The analysis was performed for two different scenarios of VG penetration: 11% (8% wind and 3% solar) and 33% (24% wind and 9% solar) of WECC projected energy demand in 2020. In analysis of balancing reserves, the objective was to determine the reduction in balancing reserve requirements due to BA consolidation, in terms of required capacity and ramp-rates. Hour-ahead and 10-minute ahead forecast errors for load, wind, and solar were simulated. In addition, 1-minute resolution load, wind and solar data were used to derive balancing reserve requirements i.e. load-following and regulation requirements for each individual BA and for the consolidated BA (CBA). The reduction in balancing reserves was determined by calculating the difference between total reserve requirements that need to be carried by different BAs if they operate individually, and reserve requirements that need to be carried by the CBA. The study results show that the consolidated WECC system would have about a 50% overall reduction in balancing reserves for the 11% penetration scenario and a 65% reduction for the 33% penetration scenario in comparison with total reserve requirements that need to be carried by different BAs if they operate individually.
PPG pursued the development of an integrated substrate, including the anode, external, and internal extraction layers. The objective of PPG's program was to achieve cost reductions by displacing the existing expensive borosilicate or double-side polished float glass substrates and developing alternative electrodes and scalable light extraction layer technologies through focused and short-term applied research. One of the key highlights of the project was proving the feasibility of using PPG's high transmission Solarphire® float glass as a substrate to consistently achieve organic lightemitting diode (OLED) devices with good performance and high yields. Under this program, four low-cost alternatives to the Indium Tin Oxide (ITO) anode were investigated using pilot-scale magnetron sputtered vacuum deposition (MSVD) and chemical vapor deposition (CVD) technologies. The anodes were evaluated by fabricating small and large phosphorescent organic lightemitting diode (PHOLED) devices at Universal Display Corporation (UDC). The device performance and life-times comparable to commercially available ITO anodes were demonstrated. A cost-benefit analysis was performed to down-select two anodes for further low-cost process development. Additionally, PPG developed and evaluated a number of scalable and compatible internal and external extraction layer concepts such as scattering layers on the outside of the glass substrate or between the transparent anode and the glass interface. In one external extraction layer (EEL) approach, sol-gel sprayed pyrolytic coatings were deposited using lab scale equipment by hand or automated spraying of sol-gel solutions on hot glass, followed by optimizing of scattering with minimal absorption. In another EEL approach, PPG tested large-area glass texturing by scratching a glass surface with an abrasive roller and acid etching. Efficacy enhancements of 1.27x were demonstrated using white PHOLED devices for 2.0mm substrates which are at par with the standard diffuser sheets used by OLED manufacturers. For an internal extraction layer (IEL), PPG tested two concepts combining nanoparticles either in a solgel coating inserted between the anode and OLED or anode and glass interface, or incorporated into the internal surface of the glass. Efficacy enhancements of 1.31x were demonstrated using white PHOLED devices for the IEL by itself and factors of 1.73x were attained for an IEL in combination of thick acrylic block as an EEL. Recent offline measurements indicate that, with further optimization, factors over 2.0x could be achieved through an IEL alone.
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The overall objective of this study was to understand, on an Interconnection-wide basis, the effects intra-hour scheduling compared to hourly scheduling. Moreover, the study sought to understand how the benefits of intra-hour scheduling would change by altering the input assumptions in different scenarios. This report describes results of three separate scenarios with differing key assumptions and comparing the production costs between hourly scheduling and 10-minute scheduling performance. The different scenarios were chosen to provide insight into how the estimated benefits might change by altering input assumptions. Several key assumptions were different in the three scenarios, however most assumptions were similar and/or unchanged among the scenarios.
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Explore the source record for details and available documents.
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
This article examines how wind and solar integration studies have evolved, what analysis techniques work, what common mistakes are still made, and what and why calculating integration costs is such a difficult problem that should be undertaken carefully, if at all. Examples of integration costs for other generation technologies are examined to help illuminate underlying cost causation principles.
Cost curves focusing on CO2 transport and storage have been previously published and used to help establish the large potential for CCS technologies to deploy in China. This paper examines the results from recent work to incorporate the costs of CO2 capture and compression within integrated cost curves that better reflect the complete costs and therefore possible value of CCS. Results show that significant potential exists for large-scale deployment of CCS at costs less than $70/tCO2. Mapping of the cost curve results confirms that the majority of existing CO2 point sources may be able to utilize CCS technologies, and that - except for many sources in southern China - onshore storage capacity appears accessible and sufficient for decades of large-scale deployment.