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At least 19 records

Shortest path network interdiction with asymmetric uncertainty

Abstract This paper considers an extension of the shortest path network interdiction problem that incorporates robustness to account for parameter uncertainty. The shortest path interdiction problem is a game of two players with conflicting agendas and capabilities: an evader, who traverses the arcs of a network from a source node to a sink node using a path of shortest length, and an interdictor, who maximizes the length of the evader's shortest path by interdicting arcs on the network. It is usually assumed that the parameters defining the network are known exactly by both players. We consider the situation where the evader assumes the nominal parameter values while the interdictor uses robust optimization techniques to account for parameter uncertainty or sensor degradation. We formulate this problem as a nonlinear mixed‐integer semi‐infinite bilevel program and show that it can be converted into a mixed‐integer linear program with a second order cone constraint. We use random geometric networks and transportation networks to perform computational studies and demonstrate the unique decision strategies that our variant produces. Solving the shortest path interdiction problem with asymmetric uncertainty protects the interdictor from investing in a strategy that hinges on key interdictions performing as promised. It also provides an alternate strategy that mitigates the risk of these worst‐case possibilities.

Punla‐Green, She'ifa Z.↗

International Radiological/Nuclear Training for Emergency Response - Major Public Events Virtual Workshop: Alarm Interdiction and Adjudication and Source Recovery (Day 4) [Slides]

The objective of this presentation is for participants to understand the process for interdicting and adjudicating radiation alarms and review operational scenarios for radiological emergency response best practices. The specific goal is for participants to: (1) Become familiar with the Primary and Secondary Inspection process for alarm interdiction, investigation, and adjudication, (2) Gain knowledge of common operational scenarios where alarm interdiction, investigation and adjudication are conducted as best practices, and (3) Review several scenarios that could be encountered as part of the Nuclear Security measures for an MPE.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

The Promise of Mutation Resistant Drugs for SARS-CoV-2 That Interdict in the Folding of the Spike Protein Receptor Binding Domain

In recent work, we proposed that effective therapeutic drugs aimed at treating the SARS-CoV-2 infection could be developed based on interdicting in the early steps of the folding pathway of key viral proteins, including the receptor binding domain (RBD) of the spike protein. In order to provide for a drug target on the protein, the earliest contact-formation event along the dominant folding pathway of the RBD spike protein was predicted employing the Sequential Collapse Model (SCM). The segments involved in the predicted earliest contact were suggested to provide optimal folding interdiction target regions (FITRs) for potential therapeutic drugs, with a focus on folding interdicting peptides (FIPs). In this paper, we extend our analysis to include 13 known single mutations of the RBD spike protein as well as the triple mutation B1.351 and the recent double mutation B1.617.2. The results show that the location of the FITR does not change in any of the 15 studied mutations, providing for a mutation-resistant drug design strategy for the RBD-spike protein.

Bergasa-Caceres, Fernando↗

Faster solutions to the interdiction defense problem using suboptimal solutions

The interdiction defense (ID) problem solves a defender-attacker-defender model where the defender and attacker share the same set of components to harden and target. Here, we build upon the best response intersection (BRI) algorithm by developing the BRI with suboptimal solutions (BRI-SS) algorithm to solve the ID problem. The BRI-SS algorithm utilizes off-the-shelf optimization solvers that return suboptimal solutions at no additional computation cost. We derive novel cuts from suboptimal solutions, reducing the number of iterations required for the algorithm to converge while maintaining optimality guarantees. We also present a heuristic that utilizes all obtained suboptimal solutions to select the next defense to evaluate at each iteration. We perform computational experiments applied to power grid interdiction on standard test cases. Our results demonstrate that the BRI-SS algorithm consistently outperforms the BRI algorithm across all test cases.

Computer science↗

Nuclear Interdiction Through Relocatable Detectors

The NNSA Office of Nuclear Smuggling Detection and Deterrence (NSDD) has investigated a set of minimal-infrastructure radiation detection systems as alternatives to fixed Radiation Portal Monitors (RPMs) for nuclear interdiction applications. These versatile and relocatable systems can improve nuclear security in missions or locations that do not warrant or support a standard fixed radiation detection system. Over 2019, a variety of relocatable detectors were characterized at the Interdiction Technologies Integration Laboratory at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). Evaluated detectors were diverse in their size and capabilities, ranging from backpack-sized systems to lane-spanning cargo scanning portals. Both spectroscopic and non-spectroscopic pedestrian and vehicle detection systems were characterized against uranium and plutonium sources. Signatures from the sources were modulated by both shielding and distance to quantify the performance of the relocatable systems as signal strength was decreased. Findings showed that relocatable spectroscopic detectors with isotope identification capabilities could reduce nuisance alarm rates compared to conventional fixed installation, gross-counting, radiation portal monitors. In vehicle scanning applications, detection ability generally trended with detection volume, regardless of spectral capability. In pedestrian scanning applications, several smaller backpack-sized detector systems were found to be more sensitive to detecting material than pedestrian portal monitors. The results of this characterization effort have helped inform the deployment of versatile equipment to improve nuclear security missions.

relocatable detectors, Nuclear Security↗

Risk-Averse Bi-Level Stochastic Network Interdiction Model for Cyber-Security Risk Management

Security of cyber networks is crucial; recent severe cyber-attacks have had a devastating effect on many large organizations. The attack graph, which maps the potential attack paths of a cyber network, is a popular tool for analyzing cyber system vulnerability. In this study, we propose a bi-level stochastic network interdiction model on an attack graph to enable a risk-averse, resource constrained cyber network defender to optimally deploy security countermeasures that protect against attackers with an uncertain budget. This risk- averse conditional-value-at-risk (CVaR) model minimizes a weighted sum of the expected maximum loss over all scenarios and the expected maximum loss from the most damaging attack scenarios. We develop a customized constraint and column generation algorithm to solve our model as well as several acceleration techniques to improve the computational efficiency. Numerical experiments demonstrate that the acceleration techniques enable the solution of relatively large problems within a reasonable amount of time: applying all the acceleration techniques also reduces the average computation time of the basic algorithm by 71% for 100-node graphs. Using metrics called mean-risk value of stochastic solution and value of risk-aversion, computational results suggest that our stochastic risk-averse model significantly outperforms deterministic and risk-neutral models when 1) the distribution of attacker budget is heavy-right-tailed and 2) the defender is highly risk-averse.

Bhuiyan, Tanveer H.↗

Chemical speciation correlated with microstructural heterogeneity of interdicted uranium materials

Two uranium powders seized by law enforcement in Victoria, Australia, have been characterized by established nuclear forensic methods in a previously published study. Here, in this work, the results of further characterization by a scanning transmission x-ray microscope (STXM) operating in the soft x-ray regime are reported. STXM images are used to estimate the elemental distribution in micrometer-scale particles of each powder, and oxygen K-edge absorption spectra are used to determine the chemical state of uranium. The results of the current study are consistent with the previous analysis; the first powder is found to be a potassium-uranium hydrate, while the second powder is determined to be a mixture of uranium oxides primarily consisting of UO 3 .

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

ILLICIT TRANSIT INTERDICTION GLOBAL ANALYSIS

This study aims to enhance the security of radioactive materials during transport by analyzing commonalities in cargo thefts conducted by non-state groups such as thieves and terrorists. This research focuses on identifying patterns and trends in the methods used to steal high-value cargo, with the goal of applying these insights to improve transport security of radioactive materials. Key questions addressed include the frequency of specific tools, techniques, and insider involvement in thefts, as well as the use of weapons, electronic jamming equipment, and specialized tools. Findings will inform security design improvements and industry practices to mitigate vulnerabilities. The study involves a comprehensive review of literature and case studies, utilizing data sources from 2018 to 2023. Articles will be selected based on their relevance to thefts of valuable cargo in transit, with a focus on incidents involving non-state actors. The methodology will include statistical and inferential analysis to identify trends, with results visualized through pie charts, frequency analyses, and terrain maps. The discussion will highlight the implications of findings and provide actionable recommendations for strengthening security measures. Limitations such as data availability and reporting inconsistencies will be acknowledged. Suggestions for future improvements will be constructed using existing case studies and expert feedback. The study’s outcomes aim to raise awareness within the industry, inform policy decisions, and enhance security protocols for radioactive material transport. Metrics for impact include the potential publication of findings, presentations at conferences to raise awareness, and the subsequent actions taken by stakeholders based on the research. By identifying trends and vulnerabilities and suggesting improvements, this research contributes to preventing the illicit use of nuclear and radiological materials.

Zineddin, Dr. Z. [ORNL] (ORCID:0009000848740725)↗

Detection, Localization, and Tracking of Unauthorized UAS and Jammers

Small unmanned aircraft systems (UASs) are expected to take major roles in future smart cities, for example, by delivering goods and merchandise, potentially serving as mobile hot spots for broadband wireless access, and maintaining surveillance and security. Although they can be used for the betterment of the society, they can also be used by malicious entities to conduct physical and cyber attacks to infrastructure, private/public property, and people. Even for legitimate use-cases of small UASs, air traffic management (ATM) for UASs becomes of critical importance for maintaining safe and collusion-free operation. Therefore, various ways to detect, track, and interdict potentially unauthorized drones carries critical importance for surveillance and ATM applications. In this paper, we will review techniques that rely on ambient radio frequency signals (emitted from UASs), radars, acoustic sensors, and computer vision techniques for detection of malicious UASs. We will present some early experimental and simulation results on radar-based range estimation of UASs, and receding horizon tracking of UASs. Subsequently, we will overview common techniques that are considered for interdiction of UASs.

surveillance↗

Multi-Game Modeling for Counter-Smuggling

International trade provides an avenue for terrorists to smuggle illicit materials into a target country. Policymakers need models and decision support tools that are both reliable and germane to inform their responses to this. Game theoretic approaches have been used in the analysis of counterterrorism strategies, but the models involved have often been small and abstracted. To address this need, we have developed a multi-game model to account for both security-related and economic aspects of counter-smuggling interdiction efforts. Additionally, we use different games to represent different types of interactions, and these games are then coupled to each other to form an integrated model. In this paper, we demonstrate the model's capabilities on a representative system of ports (both foreign and domestic), trade routes, and commodities. We specifically investigate the impacts of changes in screening policies at domestic ports, detection device capabilities, shipping subsidies, and worldwide corruption levels. In these studies, we find that economic factors play a large role in the interdiction task and provide correspondingly important tools for deterrence.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Laser ablation spectrometry for studies of uranium plasmas, reactor monitoring, and spent fuel safety

Nuclear security is one of the defining challenges of our time. Nuclear threats range from deliberate dispersal of radioactive material to contaminate the vital infrastructure to diversion and smuggling of special nuclear material for clandestine nuclear programs and nuclear terrorism, respectively. There is an associated need to develop and sustain the nuclear forensics capabilities, which requires the understanding of complex processes that occur in plasmas of nuclear materials. The area of nuclear safety has seen a resurgence of public interest, and there is a concomitant need to safely store used nuclear fuel and detect structural material failure in nuclear power systems, especially in innovative reactor designs envisioned for future adoption. Laser-produced plasmas are complicated extreme environments that can generate intense and rich, highly specific signatures of nuclear and radiological materials, which can then be explored in a wide range of applications. They include interdiction and rapid detection of nuclear materials, including their isotopic composition, detection over long distances, laboratory simulation of weapons effects, monitoring the condition of structural materials in dry cask storage containers, and novel instrumentation for nuclear power systems. We present a compilation of recent representative examples of the application of laser spectroscopy, and laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy in particular, to nuclear safety and security problems. A case is made that spectroscopic techniques based on laser-produced plasmas offer complementary, and sometimes unique, capabilities that motivate the continued exploration of their efficient production and understanding of the signatures they produce

(020.3260) Isotope shifts, (140.3440) Laser-induce↗

Nuclear forensics: How science helps stop the trafficking of nuclear materials

Nuclear forensics is an essential activity in support of national counter-nuclear smuggling operations, as it can be used to provide unique and useful data to law enforcement for the prosecution of criminal nuclear smugglers and traffickers. Nuclear forensics can also be used to determine the origin of nuclear materials that have fallen out of regulatory control, allowing for the identification of weaknesses and vulnerabilities in the safeguarding of nuclear materials, while also generating a deterrent effect through attribution to the legal and responsible owners of nuclear materials out of regulatory control. This article describes the benefits of a nuclear forensics capability to any country in possession of nuclear materials, and describes how nuclear forensics can support an investigation into the origin of interdicted nuclear materials, using a case study of a nuclear materials interdiction in Australia to describe how nuclear forensics works in practice.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Development of Spectroscopic Tools for Nuclear Forensics Signatures Development

Diversion of nuclear materialsfrom legitimate commercial processes for use by nefarious actors is a frightening and surreptitious problem. Smuggled nuclear material can be used to manufacture a simple radiological dispersion device (RDD) and potentially incorporated into the development of a nuclear weapon. With some frequency, smuggled nuclear material is interdicted in foreign countries as actors cross border checkpoints. Nuclear material interdicted in this way can be analyzed using a variety of tools. Plutonium-239 is commonly used as the fissile material in nuclear weapon production as an alternative to uranium-235. Plutonium in a production, refining, or finishing facility will exist in many forms including oxide precursors (PuF4, PuF3, Pu oxalate, etc.), oxide, and metal. The ability to identify plutonium in each of these forms and determine properties, characteristics, or history of these materials is crucial for determining if the processes occurring in a nuclear facility are legitimate or not. This presentation will focus on the development and application ofspectroscopic tools developed at SRNL using doubled-walled cells (DWC) to characterize Pu-bearing compounds. Advances in the use of vibrational spectroscopy techniques (Raman and IR), UV-VIS-SWIR diffuse reflectance spectroscopy, gamma emission spectroscopy, luminescence spectroscopy, laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy in conjunction with XRD and SEM in the characterization of Pu-bearing compounds will be presented with emphasis in material processing history.

Villa-Aleman, Eliel↗

Evaluating Short-warning Mitigation via Intentional Robust Disruption of a Hypothetical Impact of Asteroid 2023 NT1

We investigate various short-warning mitigation scenarios via fragmentation for a hypothetical impact of asteroid 2023 NT1, a near-Earth object (NEO) that was discovered on 2023 July 15, two days after its closest approach to Earth on July 13. The asteroid passed by Earth within ∼0.25 lunar distances, with a closest approach of ∼1 × 10 5 km and a velocity of 11.27 km s −1 . Its size remains largely uncertain, with an estimated diameter range of 26–58 m and a most probable estimate of 34 m (JPL Sentry, 2023 September 15; weighted by the NEO size frequency distribution). If 2023 NT1 had collided with Earth, it could have caused significant local damage. Assuming a spherical asteroid with a diameter of 34 m, uniform density of 2.6 g cm −3 , and impact velocity of 15.59 km s −1 , a collision would have yielded an estimated impact energy of ∼1.5 Mt, approximately 3 times the energy of the Chelyabinsk airburst in 2013. We analyze the effectiveness of mitigation via intentional robust disruption for objects similar to 2023 NT1. We utilize Pulverize It (PI), a NASA Innovative Advanced Concepts study of planetary defense via fragmentation, to model potential mitigation scenarios through simulations of hypervelocity asteroid disruption and atmospheric ground effects in the case of a terminal defense mode. Simulations suggest that PI is an effective multimodal approach for planetary defense that can operate in extremely short interdiction modes, in addition to long interdiction timescales with extended warning. Our simulations support the proposition that threats like 2023 NT1 can be effectively mitigated with intercepts of 1 day (or less) prior to impact, yielding minimal to no ground damage.

Asteroids↗

Oxygen stable isotopes in the nuclear fuel cycle: Assessment of the potential for determining the fabrication and provenance history of anhydrous and hydrous uranium oxides

Determining the origin and history of interdicted nuclear materials is a central challenge in nuclear forensics. The oxygen stable isotope composition of uranium oxide compounds has emerged as a promising forensic signature, attracting increasing attention since the early 2000s. This review examines analytical techniques for measuring oxygen isotope compositions in uranium oxides and evaluates how the nuclear fuel production cycle introduces or modifies these isotopic signatures. The potential for forensic geolocation is explored through workflows that calibrate the relationship between environmental water oxygen isotopes and those found in uranium oxides. Key strengths and limitations of this approach are assessed, including gaps in knowledge related to isotope fractionation during specific stages of the fuel cycle, and processing facility water inputs. The importance of proper sample handling and storage under inert atmospheres, as well as a deeper understanding of both intra-sample oxygen isotope heterogeneity, and hydrous uranium oxide phase formation, is highlighted for improving the reliability of forensic interpretations. In conclusion, the development of uranium oxide standards with well-characterized δ 18 O values and international collaboration toward consensus on their use are identified as essential steps for advancing the field.

Attribution↗