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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Deterministic incident-wave elevation prediction in intermediate water depth

Potential performance gains from optimal (non-causal) impedance-matching control of wave energy devices in irregular ocean waves are dependent on deterministic wave elevation prediction techniques that work well in practical applications. Although a number of devices are designed for operation in intermediate water depths, little work has been reported on deterministic wave prediction in such depths. Here, we investigated a deterministic wave-prediction technique based on an approximate propagation model that leads to an analytical formulation, which may be convenient to implement in practice. To improve accuracy, an approach to combine predictions based on multiple up-wave measurement points is evaluated. The overall method is tested using experimental time-series measurements recorded in the U.S. Navy MASK basin in Carderock, MD, USA. For comparison, an alternative prediction approach based on Fourier coefficients is also tested with the same data. Comparison of prediction approaches with direct measurements suggest room for improvement. Possible sources of error including tank reflections are estimated, and potential mitigation approaches are discussed.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
NASA NTRS1983

A study on the spectral models for waves in finite water depth

From an extension of the Wallops Spectrum (Huang et al., 1981) for the deep water waves, spectral models for waves in finite water depths are developed. Stokes wave expansions are found to offer a good approximation for intermediate water depth. The spectral function in this case is controlled by three parameters: the significant slope, the nondimensional depth, and the peak frequency. It is pointed out that solitary and cnoidal wave models must be used for the shallow water waves. The controlling parameters now reduce to the Urell number and the peak frequency. Even though the resulting spectral models place special emphasis on the energy-containing range of the spectrum, they are not limited to this range and they are not limited to any particular sea state. They are seen as offering a possible explanation of the variations in the special slope observed by previous investigators.

Huang, N. E.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Theoretical monochromatic-wave-induced currents in intermediate water with viscosity and nonzero mass transport

Wave-induced mass-transport current theories with both zero and nonzero net mass (or volume) transport of the water column are reviewed. A relationship based on the Longuet-Higgens theory is derived for wave-induced, nonzero mass-transport currents in intermediate water depths for a viscous fluid. The relationship is in a form useful for experimental applications; therefore, some design criteria for experimental wave-tank tests are also presented. Sample parametric cases for typical wave-tank conditions and a typical ocean swell were assessed by using the relation in conjunction with an equation developed by Unluata and Mei for the maximum wave-induced volume transport. Calculations indicate that substantial changes in the wave-induced mass-transport current profiles may exist dependent upon the assumed net volume transport. A maximum volume transport, corresponding to an infinite channel or idealized ocean condition, produces the largest wave-induced mass-transport currents. These calculations suggest that wave-induced mass-transport currents may have considerable effects on pollution and suspended-sediments transport as well as buoy drift, the surface and midlayer water-column currents caused by waves increasing with increasing net volume transports. Some of these effects are discussed.

Talay, T. A.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Hydrographic section across the Kuroshio near 35 deg N, 143 deg E

A closely spaced conductivity-temperature-depth/hydrographic section was conducted off the east coast of Japan in July 1992. The southeastward section crossed the Japan Trench and the Kuroshio in the vicinity of the Kashima 1 seamount. Vertical sections of temperature, salinity, density, oxygen, and nutrients are discussed in conjunction with the movement and interleaving of water masses. Complicated vertical and horizontal mixings of water masses are inferred from the temperature and salinity relationships. Mixing processes are patchy and not continuous beneath the front. Warm, salty water found beneath the Kurishio may result from upward mixing of water from intermediate depths. The main axis of the Kurishio, indicated by the 14 C isotherm at 200 m, is at 35.7 deg N, 142.6 deg E, about 20 km from the north wall surface thermal front. Geostrophic speeds exceed 170 cm/s at the surface; volume transport through the section is 81 x 10(exp 6) cu m/s.

Teague, W. J.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Nutrient and carbon concentrations in dated soil cores at US-OWC Ameriflux wetland site (OWC NERR)

Soil cores were sampled at the Old Woman Creek (OWC) National Estuarine Research Reserve at the south shore of Lake Erie, near Huron, Ohio, USA. OWC is a temperate mineral soil marsh. We dated the soil cores using lead isotope analysis and measured the concentrations of carbon and nutrients (nitrogen, phosphorus) throughout the core depths. We analyzed 36 cores, sampled along three transects at areas of the wetland with different hydrological regimes. Each transect included three coring sites at different water depth categories (shallow, intermediate deep) with four core samples per coring site. The data can be used to determine the carbon sequestration rates and nutrient accumulation rates, at multiple locations throughout OWC wetland.Dataset, in csv format, with data variables in columns, and different cores and core depths slices in rows, includes results from 36 sediment cores (0-30 cm depth) taken at 9 locations (4 replicates at each location) along 3 gradients of water depth (shallow, intermediate, deep), each at a different hydrologic location (outflow, backflow, middle). At each depth slice within a core, we provide depth, date (using 210Pb), bulk density, and the concentrations of carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus, d13C, and d15N.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2015

An Assessment of Southern Ocean Water Masses and Sea Ice During 1988-2007 in a Suite of Interannual CORE-II Simulations

We characterise the representation of the Southern Ocean water mass structure and sea ice within a suite of 15 global ocean-ice models run with the Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiment Phase II (CORE-II) protocol. The main focus is the representation of the present (1988-2007) mode and intermediate waters, thus framing an analysis of winter and summer mixed layer depths; temperature, salinity, and potential vorticity structure; and temporal variability of sea ice distributions. We also consider the interannual variability over the same 20 year period. Comparisons are made between models as well as to observation-based analyses where available. The CORE-II models exhibit several biases relative to Southern Ocean observations, including an underestimation of the model mean mixed layer depths of mode and intermediate water masses in March (associated with greater ocean surface heat gain), and an overestimation in September (associated with greater high latitude ocean heat loss and a more northward winter sea-ice extent). In addition, the models have cold and fresh/warm and salty water column biases centred near 50 deg S. Over the 1988-2007 period, the CORE-II models consistently simulate spatially variable trends in sea-ice concentration, surface freshwater fluxes, mixed layer depths, and 200-700 m ocean heat content. In particular, sea-ice coverage around most of the Antarctic continental shelf is reduced, leading to a cooling and freshening of the near surface waters. The shoaling of the mixed layer is associated with increased surface buoyancy gain, except in the Pacific where sea ice is also influential. The models are in disagreement, despite the common CORE-II atmospheric state, in their spatial pattern of the 20-year trends in the mixed layer depth and sea-ice.

Sea ice↗
DOE OSTI2026

Aragonite saturation horizon variability along North Pacific seamounts and implications for deep-sea coral reefs

The 2014 discovery of living deep-sea coral reefs along the Northwest Hawaiian Islands (NWHI) and lower Emperor Seamount Chain (ESC), despite the North Pacific’s shallow aragonite saturation horizon (ASH) and high CaCO3 dissolution rates, underscores the need to understand the local seawater chemistry that allows these reefs to persist. We investigated seawater carbonate chemistry using discrete samples along the NWHI and ESC from two cruises ~1 year apart (08/26/21 – 09/26/21, 09/09/22 – 10/24/22). Across the two cruises, ASH depth difference ranged from 15 to 77 m. Since the Pacific ASH shoals by 1–2 m yr?¹, this long-term trend cannot explain the magnitude of ASH change observed between cruises. Temperature-salinity plots similarly indicate no major shifts in intermediate water masses that could account for these changes. Instead, ASH depth variability was primarily governed by localized biogeochemical processes, namely changes in intermediate water respiration and CaCO3 dissolution. Indicators for dissolution (TA*) and respiration (AOU) suggest changes in ASH depth were driven by changes in dissolution at the northern- and southern-most sites, whereas respiration exerted stronger control at central sites. Combining 2021 and 2022 data with data from 2014 – 2019 (excluding 2018) revealed high interannual ASH variability, by as much as >200 m at one site. Deep-sea coral reefs across the NWHI and ESC currently reside close to the ASH depth and likely experience seasonal and interannual shifts between under- and supersaturation. As ocean acidification progresses however, persistent exposure to undersaturated seawater could further threaten these critical deep-sea ecosystems.

coral reefs↗
DOE OSTI2022

Root and xylem anatomy varies with root length, root order, soil depth and environment in intermediate wheatgrass (Kernza®) and alfalfa

Abstract Background and Aims Deep roots (i.e. >1 m depth) are important for crops to access water when the topsoil is dry. Root anatomy and hydraulic conductance play important roles in the uptake of soil water, particularly water located deep in the soil. We investigated whether root and xylem anatomy vary as a function of root type, order and length, or with soil depth in roots of two deep-rooted perennial crops: intermediate wheatgrass [Thinopyrum intermedium (Kernza®)] and alfalfa (Medicago sativa). We linked the expression of these anatomical traits to the plants’ capacity to take up water from deep soil layers. Methods Using laser ablation tomography, we compared the roots of the two crops for cortical area, number and size of metaxylem vessels, and their estimated root axial hydraulic conductance (ERAHCe). The deepest roots investigated were located at soil depths of 2.25 and at 3.5 m in the field and in rhizoboxes, respectively. Anatomical differences were characterized along 1-m-long individual roots, among root types and orders, as well as between environmental conditions. Key Results For both crops, a decrease in the number and diameter, or both, of metaxylem vessels along individual root segments and with soil depth in the field resulted in a decrease in ERAHCe. Alfalfa, with a greater number of metaxylem vessels per root throughout the soil profile and, on average, a 4-fold greater ERAHCe, took up more water from the deep soil layers than intermediate wheatgrass. Root anatomical traits were significantly different across root types, classes and growth conditions. Conclusions Root anatomical traits are important tools for the selection of crops with enhanced exploitation of deep soil water. The development and breeding of perennial crops for improved subsoil exploitation will be aided by greater understanding of root phenotypes linked to deep root growth and activity.

Plant Sciences↗
NASA NTRS2011

Introduction to: Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation(AMOC)

A striking conclusion of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007 report is the crucial role that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) may play in anthropogenic climate change. However, these IPCC coupled climate simulations show a broad range of uncertainty in the magnitude and timing of AMOC transport change ranging from none to nearly complete collapse within the 21st century. The potential consequences of large changes in the characteristics of AMOC have motivated the creation in the United States of an interagency program and implementation plan to develop monitoring and prediction capabilities for the AMOC This program parallels the development of substantial monitoring efforts by European, South American and African countries -- notably the UK Rapid and Rapid-Watch programs. The papers contained in this volume are derived from presentations at the First U.S. Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) Meeting held 4 - 6 May, 2009 to review the US implementation plan and its coordination with other monitoring activities. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation consists of multiple components illustrated in an attached figure. Water enters the South Atlantic at upper and intermediate depths through both western and eastern routes (where eddy transport is especially important) and is transported northward across the equator, where it recirculates within the northern subtropical and subpolar gyres. The northern end is defined by the sinking regions of the Nordic Seas and the Labrador Sea where the waters that eventually form the upper and lower branches of North Atlantic Deep Water are conditioned. High surface salinities, the result of high net evaporation in the tropics and subtropics (including the Mediterranean Sea), and presence of regions of the Arctic Ocean that remain ice-free even in winter allow for the rapid cooling and thus densification of surface water. This dense surface water becomes the source of deep water formation in the sinking regions. In addition to transporting mass, the AMOC transports roughly half of the total amount of heat carried northward through the northern subtropics (down the temperature-gradient) by the ocean. In contrast in the Southern Hemisphere AMOC transports heat up-gradient from the cool Circumpolar Current to the warm tropics. Paleoevidence suggests that AMOC heat transport in the two hemispheres has varied over time in ways intimately tied to millennial changes in the Earth's climate. In one example, the abrupt Younger Dryas spell of cold weather over the North Atlantic, which began 13,000 years ago, has generally been linked to a millennial shutdown of the AMOC as a result of massive freshwater discharge from the North American continent. The current AMOC monitoring array consists of a series of instrumented transects located across key passages (see Cunningham et al., 2010 for a recent review). In the Arctic and sub-Arctic, transects cross Fram Strait, Denmark Strait and the Faroe Channel (connecting Greenland, Iceland, and the United Kingdom), as well as the entrance to the Labrador Sea. Further south and extending outwards from the east coast of North America there are a series of monitoring arrays including arrays of the Canadian Atlantic Zone Monitoring Program, deployments of the Rapid Western Atlantic Variability Experiment (WAVE), Line W at 39 N, as well as the Rapid-MOC moored array. The latter spans the entire Atlantic basin along 26.5 N. At tropical latitudes we have the Meridional Overturning Variability Experiment (MOVE) array at 16 N, while in the Southern Hemisphere a corresponding basin-spanning transect is being established at the latitude of Cape of Good Hope, complemented by arrays at Drake Passage.

Hakkinen, Sirpa↗
DOE OSTI2021

Gulf of Mexico blue hole harbors high levels of novel microbial lineages

Exploration of oxygen-depleted marine environments has consistently revealed novel microbial taxa and metabolic capabilities that expand our understanding of microbial evolution and ecology. Marine blue holes are shallow karst formations characterized by low oxygen and high organic matter content. They are logistically challenging to sample, and thus our understanding of their biogeochemistry and microbial ecology is limited. We present a metagenomic and geochemical characterization of Amberjack Hole on the Florida continental shelf (Gulf of Mexico). Dissolved oxygen became depleted at the hole’s rim (32 m water depth), remained low but detectable in an intermediate hypoxic zone (40–75 m), and then increased to a secondary peak before falling below detection in the bottom layer (80–110 m), concomitant with increases in nutrients, dissolved iron, and a series of sequentially more reduced sulfur species. Microbial communities in the bottom layer contained heretofore undocumented levels of the recently discovered phylum Woesearchaeota (up to 58% of the community), along with lineages in the bacterial Candidate Phyla Radiation (CPR). Thirty-one high-quality metagenome-assembled genomes (MAGs) showed extensive biochemical capabilities for sulfur and nitrogen cycling, as well as for resisting and respiring arsenic. One uncharacterized gene associated with a CPR lineage differentiated hypoxic from anoxic zone communities. Overall, microbial communities and geochemical profiles were stable across two sampling dates in the spring and fall of 2019. The blue hole habitat is a natural marine laboratory that provides opportunities for sampling taxa with under-characterized but potentially important roles in redox-stratified microbial processes.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1984

Temporal and Spatial Scales of Labrador Sea Water Formation

Labrador Sea Water is an intermediate water found at the same density and depth range in the North Atlantic as the Mediterranean water. It is formed by convection from the sea surface to depths greather than 2 km in winter in the Western Labrador Sea. The processes leading to deep convection begin with the formation of a 200 km scale cyclonic circulation about denser than average upper layer water in the Western Labrador Sea. This circulation pattern is hypothesized to be driven by an ocean/atmosphere heat exchange that has its maximum in this region. By early March, if deep convection is taking place, one sees that this body of denser upper waters penetrates to the top of the deep temperature/salinity maximum marking the core of the North Atlantic Deep Water. We note that the horizontal scale of this body is still 100-200 km normal to the coastline.

Clarke, R. A.↗
NASA NTRS2017

SIIOS in Alaska: Testing an "In-Vault" Option for a Europa Lander Seismometer Experiment

The icy moons of Europa and Enceladus are thought to have global subsurface oceans in contact with mineral-rich silicate interiors, likely providing the three ingredients needed for life as we know it: liquid water, essential chemicals, and a source of energy. The possibility of life forming in their subsurface oceans relies in part on transfer of oxidants from the irradiated ice surface to the sheltered ocean below. Constraining the mechanisms and location of material exchange between the ice surface, the ice shell, and the subsurface ocean, however, is not possible without knowledge of ice thickness and liquid water depths. In a future lander-based experiment seismic measurements will be a key geophysical tool for obtaining this critical knowledge. The Seismometer to Investigate Ice and Ocean Structure (SIIOS) field-tests flight-ready technologies and develops the analytical methods necessary to make a seismic study of Europa and Enceladus a reality. We have been performing small-array seismology with a flight-candidate sensor in analog environments that exploit passive sources. Determining the depth to a subsurface ocean and any intermediate bodies of water is a priority for Ocean Worlds missions as it allows assessment of the habitability of these worlds and provides vital information for evaluating the spacecraft technologies required to access their oceans.

Bray, Veronica J.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Examining the peatland shrubification-evapotranspiration feedback following multi-decadal water table manipulation

Northern peatlands are globally important long-term sinks of carbon due to their predominantly saturated conditions. However, these ecosystems are expected to become drier with climate change, potentially leading to shrubification. As such, the response of the shrubification–evapotranspiration (ET) feedback may be of critical importance to future peatland energy, water and carbon dynamics. Here we examined the effect of multi-decadal peatland water table (WT) alteration at three adjacent sites with increasing depth to WT (WET, INTermediate, and DRY). In order to better understand the WT–shrubification–ET feedback, we measured peatland vegetation composition, microtopography and ET partitioning, where ET was measured at the ecosystem, microform, and leaf level using eddy covariance (EC), chambers and porometry, respectively. Averaged across microforms and WT treatments, there was a difference in the median measured leaf resistance (r leaf ) between plant functional types ranging from 213 s m -1 for erect dwarf shrubs, 325 s m -1 for graminoids/sedges, and 520 s m -1 for prostrate dwarf shrubs. Scaled based on LAI, the low r leaf of erect dwarf shrubs dominated hummocks, where sites with a higher proportion of hummocks had lower median canopy resistance (r v ) of 141, 133 and 130 s m -1 at the WET, INT and DRY sites respectively. Nevertheless, ET was highest at the WET site and similar between the INT and DRY sites, with greater evaporation from the moss surface at the WET site. Porometry and EC data along with a three-source model were used to independently assess the evaporative contribution from the moss surface, which ranged from 17% to 40%. For moderate and persistent changes in WT from land-use or climate change, our results suggest vegetation succession is minimal, but the microtopographic development and the concomitant differences in LAI for the various plant functional types is key to understanding changes in total ET and partitioning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Risk assessment of wellbore leakage during underground hydrogen storage

The expansion of renewable energy sources would require large-scale energy storage options to overcome the intermittent nature of these sources. Underground hydrogen storage (UHS) in depleted hydrocarbon reservoirs offers a scalable and practical energy storage solution. These reservoirs are chosen for their availability and large capacity, but the unique properties of hydrogen raise concerns about potential leakage pathways, particularly through wellbores. In this study, we develop and apply, for the first time, reduced-order models (ROMs) specifically designed for efficient leakage risk prediction in UHS systems operating in depleted hydrocarbon reservoirs. Using 3,000 high-fidelity simulation scenarios, we examine the influence of 11 key parameters, including reservoir and aquifer depths, wellbore permeability and porosity, initial saturations of water, oil and gas fractions (hydrogen, light, intermediate, and heavy hydrocarbons), reservoir pressure multiplier, and the aquifer-to-reservoir volume ratio, to simulate leakage behavior over a 1,000-year timescale. We train ROMs using a two-step classification-regression approach, achieving R 2 values exceeding 99 % across all targets. These ROMs effectively capture the leakage evolution and identify critical controls of leakage, guiding the design of mitigation strategies. Results indicate that gas leakage occurs in about 27 % of scenarios as early as five years post-operation, reaching volumes of up to 106 ft3. Oil leakage is less frequent (~17 %) and typically begins decades later. Our findings also show that hydrogen often migrates first, owing to its smaller molecular size and higher buoyancy, followed by heavier hydrocarbons. Over time, these heavier components contribute significantly to the total leaked volume, reinforcing the need for targeted monitoring and remediation strategies. Our analysis highlights that deeper storage reservoirs, shallower aquifers, and low-permeability wellbores significantly reduce leakage risks. In conclusion, this work offers a robust framework for risk-informed UHS deployment, supporting energy security through reliable large-scale hydrogen storage while safeguarding environmental integrity.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2026

Warming and snow loss increase reliance on old groundwater in a Colorado River headwater

Atmospheric warming is reducing snowpack, with uncertain effects on mountainous streamflow, a crucial water resource. Despite limited historical observations of groundwater–streamflow interactions above 2,500 m, new measurements in the Upper Colorado River headwaters indicate declining groundwater storage that is dated decades to millennia old. Here we use integrated hydrologic modelling spanning water years 2015–2021 to determine whether the loss of old-age groundwater buffers streamflow during low-snow years and whether that loss is exacerbated with warming. Results show that old-groundwater contributions to streams remain relatively steady through time, unlike the more variable contributions from young groundwater. Numerical experiments of increased surface air temperatures (+2.5 °C and +4 °C) increase rain–snow fractions and evapotranspiration and decrease runoff ratio by 2–3% per degree Celsius increase. As streamflow declines with warming, the age of groundwater supporting it gets older, in part owing to intermediate-aged (1–3 year) groundwater declining twice as fast. Simulations show that water table depths at higher elevations (>3,700 m) decline disproportionately and fail to recover even during wet years. These findings suggest altered groundwater–streamflow interactions with warming and snow loss, with implications for water resources.

Siirila-Woodburn, Erica R. [Lawrence Berkeley Nati↗
NASA NTRS1985

Changes in atmospheric CO2 - Factors regulating the glacial to interglacial transition

Observations of pCO2 and delta-C-13 for the deep sea, and delta-C-13 for shallow waters, furnish important constraints on the chemistry of the glacial ocean. The concentration of preformed nutrients in the model presented reflects the concentration of nitrogen at depth, the efficiency with which nitrogen is supplied to the cold surface water by exchange with the intermediate layer, the extent to which nutrients in the cold surface regime are diluted by low nutrient water from lower latitude, and the efficiency with which nutrients are used up by the local cold water biota.

Ennever, F. K.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Area V: Waste Management and Subsurface Science (FY21-23 Final Report)

The objective of the Waste Management and Subsurface Science Topic Area V project is to evaluate the feasibility and safety of an intermediate-depth borehole for disposal of Israel Atomic Energy Commission (IAEC) nuclear waste. The IAEC nuclear waste is currently stored in above ground and/or in near-surface facilities that provide short-term radiological worker safety but do not provide long-term, full security and safeguards protection for the nuclear material. Disposal of the IAEC nuclear waste several hundred meters below the surface in a sealed borehole would provide long-term security and safeguards due to its depth underground, as well as long-term radiological safety, due to its isolation in a stable geological formation. This project supports the nuclear security and safeguards initiatives of the Science and Technology Working Group of the NNSA/IAEC Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) and addresses the Topic Area V objective and associated goals. The goals for Topic Area V are: (1) Assess the suitability of the vadose zone in the Yamin Plain of the northern Negev Desert, Israel as a host location for intermediate-depth borehole disposal of radioactive waste, (2) Define and refine the necessary characterization needs to better understand the regional climate, structure, and stratigraphy, geomechanics, geochemistry, hydrogeology, and seismicity of the stratigraphic sequence from the surface to the water table in the vicinity of the proposed host location for the disposal borehole(s), and (3) Develop a preliminary plan and schedule, including necessary resources and costs, for a borehole disposal concept and robust and transparent pre-closure and post-closure safety assessments. The safety assessments will require iteration with process level models at both site and regional scales. Upon completion, the information collected by this effort will allow the IAEC to make decisions regarding the viability and applicability of an intermediate depth (<500m) borehole for disposal in the vadose zone of the Yamin Plain. This FY21-23 final report is provided in lieu of a workshop report that was originally planned for delivery in January, 2024. Due to the conflict in Israel and associated delays, the workshop has been delayed to April 2024. The workshop will be held at LLNL but offsite and will switch to hybrid if travel restrictions remain in place. The associated workshop report will be provided as part of a new FY24-26 LCP.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
NASA NTRS2015

Constraints on Cumulus Parameterization from Simulations of Observed MJO Events

Two recent activities offer an opportunity to test general circulation model (GCM) convection and its interaction with large-scale dynamics for observed Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) events. This study evaluates the sensitivity of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM to entrainment, rain evaporation, downdrafts, and cold pools. Single Column Model versions that restrict weakly entraining convection produce the most realistic dependence of convection depth on column water vapor (CWV) during the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement MJO Investigation Experiment at Gan Island. Differences among models are primarily at intermediate CWV where the transition from shallow to deeper convection occurs. GCM 20-day hindcasts during the Year of Tropical Convection that best capture the shallow–deep transition also produce strong MJOs, with significant predictability compared to Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission data. The dry anomaly east of the disturbance on hindcast day 1 is a good predictor of MJO onset and evolution. Initial CWV there is near the shallow–deep transition point, implicating premature onset of deep convection as a predictor of a poor MJO simulation. Convection weakly moistens the dry region in good MJO simulations in the first week; weakening of large-scale subsidence over this time may also affect MJO onset. Longwave radiation anomalies are weakest in the worst model version, consistent with previous analyses of cloud/moisture greenhouse enhancement as the primary MJO energy source. The authors’ results suggest that both cloud-/moisture-radiative interactions and convection–moisture sensitivity are required to produce a successful MJO simulation.

Madden-Julian Oscillation↗