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Results for “internal rate of return”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records

Documentation of the analysis of the benefits and costs of aeronautical research and technology models, volume 1

The analysis of the benefits and costs of aeronautical research and technology (ABC-ART) models are documented. These models were developed by NASA for use in analyzing the economic feasibility of applying advanced aeronautical technology to future civil aircraft. The methodology is composed of three major modules: fleet accounting module, airframe manufacturing module, and air carrier module. The fleet accounting module is used to estimate the number of new aircraft required as a function of time to meet demand. This estimation is based primarily upon the expected retirement age of existing aircraft and the expected change in revenue passenger miles demanded. Fuel consumption estimates are also generated by this module. The airframe manufacturer module is used to analyze the feasibility of the manufacturing the new aircraft demanded. The module includes logic for production scheduling and estimating manufacturing costs. For a series of aircraft selling prices, a cash flow analysis is performed and a rate of return on investment is calculated. The air carrier module provides a tool for analyzing the financial feasibility of an airline purchasing and operating the new aircraft. This module includes a methodology for computing the air carrier direct and indirect operating costs, performing a cash flow analysis, and estimating the internal rate of return on investment for a set of aircraft purchase prices.

Bobick, J. C.↗

Develop and test fuel cell powered on-site integrated total energy system

Test results are given for a 5 kW stack and initial results for an integrated, grid connected system operating from methanol fuel. Site selection criteria are presented for future demonstration of a 50 or 100 kW OS/IES. Preliminary results are also given with approximate internal rates of return to the building owner. Progress in development and construction of a 50 kW modular methanol/steam reformer is reported.

Source record↗

A comparison of economic evaluation models as applied to geothermal energy technology

Several cost estimation and financial cash flow models have been applied to a series of geothermal case studies. In order to draw conclusions about relative performance and applicability of these models to geothermal projects, the consistency of results was assessed. The model outputs of principal interest in this study were net present value, internal rate of return, or levelized breakeven price. The models used were VENVAL, a venture analysis model; the Geothermal Probabilistic Cost Model (GPC Model); the Alternative Power Systems Economic Analysis Model (APSEAM); the Geothermal Loan Guarantee Cash Flow Model (GCFM); and the GEOCOST and GEOCITY geothermal models. The case studies to which the models were applied include a geothermal reservoir at Heber, CA; a geothermal eletric power plant to be located at the Heber site; an alcohol fuels production facility to be built at Raft River, ID; and a direct-use, district heating system in Susanville, CA.

Ziman, G. M.↗

Advanced space communications architecture study. Volume 2: Technical report

The technical feasibility and economic viability of satellite system architectures that are suitable for customer premise service (CPS) communications are investigated. System evaluation is performed at 30/20 GHz (Ka-band); however, the system architectures examined are equally applicable to 14/11 GHz (Ku-band). Emphasis is placed on systems that permit low-cost user terminals. Frequency division multiple access (FDMA) is used on the uplink, with typically 10,000 simultaneous accesses per satellite, each of 64 kbps. Bulk demodulators onboard the satellite, in combination with a baseband multiplexer, convert the many narrowband uplink signals into a small number of wideband data streams for downlink transmission. Single-hop network interconnectivity is accomplished via downlink scanning beams. Each satellite is estimated to weigh 5600 lb and consume 6850W of power; the corresponding payload totals are 1000 lb and 5000 W. Nonrecurring satellite cost is estimated at $110 million, with the first-unit cost at $113 million. In large quantities, the user terminal cost estimate is $25,000. For an assumed traffic profile, the required system revenue has been computed as a function of the internal rate of return (IRR) on invested capital. The equivalent user charge per-minute of 64-kbps channel service has also been determined.

Horstein, Michael↗

Servicing communication satellites in geostationary orbit

The econmic benefits of a LEO space station are quantified by identifying alternative operating scenarios utilizing the space station's transportation facilities and assembly and repair facilities. Particular consideration is given to the analysis of the impact of on-orbit assembly and servicing on a typical communications satellite is analyzed. The results of this study show that on-orbit servicing can increase the internal rate of return by as much as 30 percent.

Russell, Paul K.↗

Costs and benefits of lunar oxygen: Engineering, operations, and economics

Oxygen is the most commonly discussed lunar resource. It will certainly not be the easiest to retrieve, but oxygen's fundamental place in propulsion and life support guarantees it continued attention as a prime candidate for early in situ resource utilization (ISRU). The findings are reviewed of recent investigation, sponsored by NASA-Ames, into the kinds of technologies, equipment, and scenarios (the engineering and operations costs) that will be required even to initiate lunar oxygen production. The infrastructure necessary to surround and support a viable oxygen-processing operation is explained. Selected details are used to illustrate the depth of technology challenges, extent of operations burdens, and complexity of decision linkages. Basic assumptions, and resulting timelines and mass manifests, are listed. These findings are combined with state-of-the-art knowledge of lunar and Mars propulsion options in simple economic input/output and internal-rate-of-return models, to compare production costs with performance benefits. Implications for three realistic scales of exploration architecture - expeditionary, aggressive science, and industrialization/settlement - are discussed. Conclusions are reached regarding the contextual conditions within which production of lunar oxygen (LLOX) is a reasonable activity. LLOX appears less useful for Mars missions than previously hoped. Its economical use in low Earth orbit hinges on production of lunar hydrogen as well. LLOX shows promise for lunar ascent/descent use, but that depends strongly on the plant mass required.

Sherwood, Brent↗

Highly Reusable Space Transportation System Concept Evaluation (The Argus Launch Vehicle)

This paper summarizes the results of a conceptual design study that was performed in support of NASA's recent Highly Reusable Space Transportation study. The Argus concept uses a Maglifter magnetic-levitation sled launch assist system to accelerate it to a takeoff ground speed of 800 fps on its way to delivering a payload of 20,000 lb. to low earth orbit. Main propulsion is provided by two supercharged ejector rocket engines. The vehicle is autonomous and is fully reusable. A conceptual design exercise determined the vehicle gross weight to be approximately 597,250 lb. and the dry weight to be 75,500 lb. Aggressive weight and operations cost assumptions were used throughout the design process consistent with a second-generation reusable system that might be deployed in 10-15 years. Drawings, geometry, and weight of the concept are included. Preliminary development, production, and operations costs along with a business scenario assuming a price-elastic payload market are also included. A fleet of three Argus launch vehicles flying a total of 149 flights per year is shown to have a financial internal rate of return of 28%. At $169/lb., the recurring cost of Argus is shown to meet the study goal of $100/lb.-$200/lb., but optimum market price results in only a factor of two to five reduction compared to today's launch systems.

Olds, John R.↗

Launch Vehicle Assessment for Space Solar Power

A recently completed study at Georgia Tech examined various launch vehicle options for deploying a future constellation of Space Solar Power satellites of the Suntower configuration. One of the motivations of the study was to determine whether the aggressive $400/kg launch price goal established for SSP package delivery would result in an attractive economic scenario for a future RLV developer. That is, would the potential revenue and traffic to be derived from a large scale SSP project be enough of an economic "carrot" to attract an RLV company into developing a new, low cost launch vehicle to address this market. Preliminary results presented in the attached charts show that there is enough economic reward for RLV developers, specifically in the case of the latest large GEO-based Suntower constellations (over 15,500 MT per year delivery for 30 years). For that SSP model, internal rates of return for the 30 year economic scenario exceed 22%. However, up-front government assistance to the RLV developer in terms of ground facilities, operations technologies, guaranteed low-interest rate loans, and partial offsets of some vehicle development expenses is necessary to achieve these positive results. This white paper is meant to serve as a companion to the data supplied in the accompanying charts. It's purpose is to provide more detail on the vehicles and design processes used, to highlight key decisions and issues, and to emphasize key results from each phase of the Georgia Tech study.

Olds, John R.↗

A Two-Stage-to-Orbit Spaceplane Concept With Growth Potential

A two-stage-to-orbit (TSTO) spaceplane concept developed in 1993 is revisited, and new information is provided to assist in the development of the next-generation space transportation vehicles. The design philosophy, TSTO spaceplane concept, and the design method are briefly described. A trade study between cold and hot structures leads to the choice of cold structures with external thermal protection systems. The optimal Mach number for staging the second stage of the TSTO spaceplane (with air-breathing propulsion on the first stage) is 10, based on life-cycle cost analysis. The performance and specification of a prototype/experimental (P/X) TSTO spaceplane with a turbo/ram/scramjet propulsion system and built-in growth potential are presented and discussed. The internal rate of return on investment is the highest for the proposed TSTO spaceplane, vis-A-vis a single-stage-to-orbit (SSTO) rocket vehicle and a TSTO spaceplane without built-in growth. Additional growth potentials for the proposed spaceplane are suggested. This spaceplane can substantially decrease access-to-space cost and risk, and increase safety and reliability in the near term It can be a serious candidate for the next-generation space transportation system.

Mehta, Unmeel B.↗

Decision Making Methods in Space Economics and Systems Engineering

This viewgraph presentation reviews various methods of decision making and the impact that they have on space economics and systems engineering. Some of the methods discussed are: Present Value and Internal Rate of Return (IRR); Cost-Benefit Analysis; Real Options; Cost-Effectiveness Analysis; Cost-Utility Analysis; Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT); and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP).

trade studies↗

Commercial Hypersonic Transportation Market Study

At the request of NASA, Deloitte conducted an independent market study to provide an independent assessment on the economic viability of hypersonic and supersonic air transportation to inform ongoing strategic planning of research areas within the government and industry and to focus on the areas for technology development and vehicle design requirements. The Study was organized into three primary areas of investigation: Defining the Market appetite for high speed air transport, Defining the business cases; and Assessing Barriers in the environment. The market demand was assessed across a range of Mach numbers from Mach 2 to Mach 6 and ticket price elasticity was determined by surveying potential customers, literature reviews and stakeholder and expert interviews for passenger aircraft, private aircraft and cargo markets. The business case analyses assessed potential business cases across a three-dimensional trade space: flight speed (Mach 2-6), passenger capacity (20-200 passengers) and design range (2500-7500 nmi.). By using the SpaceWorks Rosetta model, we were able to assess each combination in the trade space and to determine the steady state Internal Rate of Return (IRR or profit) was our primary figure of merit and allowed us to rank order the business cases to understand the trends and draw conclusions from the complex trade space. Lastly, we assessed other potential barriers to high speed flight. These were determined through literature review and stakeholder/expert interviews. Once these were compiled, we developed an objective scoring system to allow us to determine overall significance and challenge to aspiring market entrants. The majority of the research was conducted between July and December of 2020 and the results compiled and communicated to NASA in the first quarter of calendar year 2021. This report, along with the companion briefing deck, document the summation of our research and serve as a data repository for use by future researchers in government and industry.

hypersonic aircraft↗

TO36 Hypersonic Study

Commercial Hypersonic Transportation Market Study. At the request of NASA, Deloitte conducted an independent market study to provide an independent assessment on the economic viability of hypersonic and supersonic air transportation to inform ongoing strategic planning of research areas within the government and industry and to focus on the areas for technology development and vehicle design requirements. The Study was organized into three primary areas of investigation: Defining the Market appetite for high speed air transport, Defining the business cases; and Assessing Barriers in the environment. The market demand was assessed across a range of Mach numbers from Mach 2 to Mach 6 and ticket price elasticity was determined by surveying potential customers, literature reviews and stakeholder and expert interviews for passenger aircraft, private aircraft and cargo markets. The business case analyses assessed potential business cases across a three-dimensional trade space: flight speed (Mach 2-6), passenger capacity (20-200 passengers) and design range (2500-7500 nmi.). By using the SpaceWorks Rosetta model, we were able to assess each combination in the trade space and to determine the steady state Internal Rate of Return (IRR or profit) was our primary figure of merit and allowed us to rank order the business cases to understand the trends and draw conclusions from the complex trade space. Lastly, we assessed other potential barriers to high speed flight. These were determined through literature review and stakeholder/expert interviews. Once these were compiled, we developed an objective scoring system to allow us to determine overall significance and challenge to aspiring market entrants. The majority of the research was conducted between July and December of 2020 and the results compiled and communicated to NASA in the first quarter of calendar year 2021. This report, along with the companion briefing deck, document the summation of our research and serve as a data repository for use by future researchers in government and industry.

hypersonic aircraft↗

American Airlines Propeller STOL Transport Economic Risk Analysis

A Monte Carlo risk analysis on the economics of STOL transports in air passenger traffic established the probability of making the expected internal rate of financial return, or better, in a hypothetical regular Washington/New York intercity operation.

Ransone, B.↗

Bion-M2

Bion-M2, scheduled to launch in April 2023, continues the 30+ year collaboration between the Institute of Biomedical Problems of the Russian Academy of Sciences (IBMP RAS) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). Bion-M2 is the second biosatellite in the Bion-M series and its goal is to investigate how the space environment affects living organisms, with emphasis on physiological changes in rodents, gravitational biology using a wide variety of specimens, and radiation biology. The Bion-M2 biosatellite will complete a 30-day low earth orbit (LEO) flight to study the combined effects of microgravity and ionizing radiation (IR) on multiple organisms, where the payload may be exposed to IR at 20-30 times thedose rate seen on the International Space Station. Following return, nine U.S. collaborators selected through the NASA Space Biology Research Announcement will conduct post-flight rodent experiments using male C57BL/6 mice. The post-flight experiments will investigate the effects of the space environment on bone and skeletal muscle health, cardiac function, reproductive system function, neurovascular systems, protein composition in plasma, and thermoregulation in the mice. Currently, the Bion-M2 mission is in the development phase of theproject lifecycle. The mission objectives, constraints, requirements, and timeline have been defined in the project plan and contracts. Technology for the mission is under development and science procedures will be finalized by FY22. The aim of this presentation is to highlight the importance of the Bion-M2 mission and provide insight into the mission development process, including an overview of the project plan and the tissue sharing plan that will be utilized during the post-flight dissection procedures.

Bion-M2↗

Multicultural factors in the space environment - Results of an international shuttle crew debrief

There is increasing interest and concern about the multicultural and multinational factors which might negatively affect adjustment and performance of Space Station Freedom (SSF) crews, living and working for long periods of time in the space environment. To begin identifying potential problem areas, a crew debrief questionnaire (called an 'International Crew Debrief') was mailed to U.S. astronauts who flew on Shuttle missions between 1981-1990 with one or more crewmembers from other countries. There were 20 U.S. astronauts who flew on international space missions; 9 of these responded to the questionnaire, for a return rate of 45 percent. There were 42 incidents reported: 9 in the preflight period; 26 inflight; and 7 in the postflight period. Most of these incidents were rated as having a low or medium impact, but five of the inflight incidents were rated to have a 'high' mission impact. A number of causes for the problems were listed, and are discussed. Debrief respondents provided useful and timely recommendations on preflight training which may help facilitate the integration of multinational crews, and prevent multicultural or multinational factors from interfering with mission operations.

Santy, Patricia A.↗

X-38 V201 Avionics Architecture

The X-38 is an experimental NASA project developing a core human capable spacecraft at a fraction of the cost of any previous human rated vehicle. The first operational derivative developed from the X-38 program will be the International Space Station (ISS) Crew Return Vehicle (CRV). Although the current X-38 vehicles are designed as re-entry vehicles only, the option exists to modify the vehicle for uses as an upward vehicle launched from an expendable launch vehicle or from the X-33 operational derivative. The Operational CRV, that will be derived from the X-38 spaceflight vehicle, will provide an emergency return capability from the International Space Station (ISS). The spacecraft can hold a crew of up to seven inside a pressurized cabin. The CRV is passively delivered to ISS, stays up to three year on-orbit attached to ISS in a passive mode with periodic functional checkout, before separation from ISS, de-orbit, entry and landing. The X-38 Vehicle 201 (V201) is being developed at NASA/JSC to demonstrate key technologies associated with the development of the CRV design. The X-38 flight test will validate the low cost development concept by demonstrating the entire station departure, re-entry, guidance and landing portions of the CRV mission. All new technologies and subsystems proposed for CRV will be validated during either the on orbit checkout or flight phases of the X-38 space flight test. The X-38 subsystems are required to be similar to those subsystems required for the CRV to the greatest extent possible. In many cases, the subsystems are identical to those that will be utilized on the Operational CRV.

Bedos, Thierry↗

Excavation of Exploration Toilet Fecal Canister from ISS Operations and Future Mission Impacts

Space exploration requires accommodations for crew members similar to survival on Earth including food and water, clothing, and protection from the environment. In addition, allowances for biological processes such as breathing, defecation and urination must be provided. In a micro-gravity environment, these are particularly challenging. Optimizing the consumables needed for these activities is a vital part of the spacecraft design as well as providing mass/volume for science cargo and the crew needs such as food and clothing. NASA has collected use rates for the consumables needed for defecation and urination over the decades of human-rated space travel. Most recently, the exploration toilet demonstration on International Space Station (ISS) provided data on defecation in the form of a returned canister which collected 13 days of fecal deposits, wipes, gloves and compaction plates. The canister was excavated by a dedicated team of engineers at Johnson Space Center (JSC) to provide the latest information on deposit size and weight, number of wipes and gloves used, and compaction efficiency which directly relates to the number of canisters needed. Although this is only one canister, the data found has been directly applied to manifest decisions for the Orion Artemis-2 mission. Future canisters will add to this data set. Details on what was found and how it compares to historical numbers as well as how it will be used for exploration missions will be covered in this paper.

Toilet↗

Excavation of Exploration Toilet Fecal Canister From ISS Operations and Future Mission Impacts

Space exploration requires accommodations for crew members similar to survival on Earth including food and water, clothing, and protection from the environment. In addition, allowances for biological processes such as breathing, defecation and urination must be provided. In a micro-gravity environment, these are particularly challenging. Optimizing the consumables needed for these activities is a vital part of the spacecraft design as well as providing mass/volume for science cargo and the crew needs such as food and clothing. NASA has collected use rates for the consumables needed for defecation and urination over the decades of human-rated space travel. Most recently, the exploration toilet demonstration on International Space Station (ISS) provided data on defecation in the form of a returned canister which collected 13 days of fecal deposits, wipes, gloves and compaction plates. The canister was excavated by a dedicated team of engineers at Johnson Space Center (JSC) to provide the latest information on deposit size and weight, number of wipes and gloves used, and compaction efficiency which directly relates to the number of canisters needed. Although this is only one canister, the data found has been directly applied to manifest decisions for the Orion Artemis-2 mission. Future canisters will add to this data set. Details on what was found and how it compares to historical numbers as well as how it will be used for exploration missions will be covered in this paper.

Toilet↗