The R and D Factor in International Trade and International Investment of United States Industries
Research and development in international trade and investment of United States industries
INDUSTRY↗
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Identifying the Community Structure of the Food-Trade International Multi-Network
Achieving international food security requires improved understanding of how international trade networks connect countries around the world through the import-export flows of food commodities. The properties of international food trade networks are still poorly documented, especially from a multi-network perspective. In particular, nothing is known about the multi-network's community structure. Here we find that the individual crop-specific layers of the multi-network have densely connected trading groups, a consistent characteristic over the period 2001-2011. Further, the multi-network is characterized by low variability over this period but with substantial heterogeneity across layers in each year. In particular, the layers are mostly assortative: more-intensively connected countries tend to import from and export to countries that are themselves more connected. We also fit econometric models to identify social, economic and geographic factors explaining the probability that any two countries are co-present in the same community. Our estimates indicate that the probability of country pairs belonging to the same food trade community depends more on geopolitical and economic factors-such as geographical proximity and trade-agreement co-membership-than on country economic size and/or income. These community-structure findings of the multi-network are especially valuable for efforts to understand past and emerging dynamics in the global food system, especially those that examine potential 'shocks' to global food trade.
complex networks↗
NAFTA literature at the International Trade Commission library
Most of the US official materials regarding NAFTA originate in the Executive Office of the President, especially the Office of the United States Trade Representative. These materials can be purchased from the U.S.G.P.O. There were also numerous Congressional hearings; many of which are probably now out of print, government agencies and the public are welcome to make copies of the ones in the collections of the ITC libraries. One of the most important sources of materials available in electronic format is the National Trade Data Base, produced by the Department of Commerce. This is a collection of at least 120 separate files containing documents relating to trade. It includes several files specifically on NAFTA, including the text of the treaty. It is available as two CD-ROM's, issued monthly, or on Internet.
Root, Elizabeth A.↗
Economic incentives modify agricultural impacts of nuclear war
A nuclear war using less than 1% of the current global nuclear arsenal, which would inject 5 Tg of soot into the stratosphere, could produce climate change unprecedented in recorded human history and significant impacts on agricultural productivity and the economy. These effects would be most severe for the first five years after the nuclear war and may last for more than a decade. This paper calculates how food availability would change by employing the Environmental Impact and Sustainability Applied General Equilibrium model. Under a robust world trading system, global food availability would drop by a few percentage points. If the war would destabilize trade, it would magnify by several times the negative ramifications of land productivity shocks on food availability. If exporting countries redirect production to domestic consumption at the expense of importing countries, it would lead to the destabilization of international trade. The analysis suggests that economic models aiming to inform policymakers require both economic behavior analysis and biophysical drivers. Policy lessons derived from a crop model can be significantly nuanced when coupled with economic feedback derived from economic models. Through the impact on yield, farmers could shift production among crops and reallocate land use to maximize profits, showing the importance of general equilibrium effects such as product and input substitution and international trade. Although the global impact on corn and soybean production would be significant when just considering crop production, it could be considerably smaller under the economic model. However, this would be at the expense of other sectors, including livestock. In addition, the costs borne from disruptions to climate would vary significantly across regions, with significant adverse effects in high latitude regions. The severity of the shocks in the high-latitude areas would marginalize the farmers' product and input substitution ability.
Nuclear war↗
Future Climate Change Impacts on U.S. Agricultural Yields, Production, and Market
This study provides estimates of climate change impacts on U.S. agricultural yields and the agricultural economy through the end of the 21st century, utilizing multiple climate scenarios. Results from a process-based crop model project future increases in wheat, grassland, and soybean yield due to climate change and atmospheric CO2 change; corn and sorghum show more muted responses. Results using yields from econometric models show less positive results. Both the econometric and process-based models tend to show more positive yields by the end of the century than several other similar studies. Using the process-based model to provide future yield estimates to an integrated agricultural sector model, the welfare gain is roughly $16B/year (2019 USD) for domestic producers and $6.2B/year for international trade, but domestic consumers lose $10.6B/year, resulting in a total welfare gain of $11.7B/year. When yield projections for major crops are drawn instead from econometric models, total welfare losses of more than $28B/year arise. Simulations using the process-based model as input to the agricultural sector model show large future production increases for soybean, wheat, and sorghum and large price reductions for corn and wheat. The most important factors are those about economic growth, flooding, international trade, and the type of yield model used. Somewhat less, but not insignificant factors include adaptation, livestock productivity, and damages from surface ozone, waterlogging, and pests and diseases.
Agricultural sector↗
Reserves and Trade Jointly Determine Exposure to Food Supply Shocks
While a growing proportion of global food consumption is obtained through international trade, there is an ongoing debate on whether this increased reliance on trade benefits or hinders food security, and specifically, the ability of global food systems to absorb shocks due to local or regional losses of production. This paper introduces a model that simulates the short-term response to a food supply shock originating in a single country, which is partly absorbed through decreases in domestic reserves and consumption, and partly transmitted through the adjustment of trade flows. By applying the model to publicly-available data for the cereals commodity group over a 17 year period, we find that differential outcomes of supply shocks simulated through this time period are driven not only by the intensification of trade, but as importantly by changes in the distribution of reserves. Our analysis also identifies countries where trade dependency may accentuate the risk of food shortages from foreign production shocks; such risk could be reduced by increasing domestic reserves or importing food from a diversity of suppliers that possess their own reserves. This simulation-based model provides a framework to study the short-term, nonlinear and out-of-equilibrium response of trade networks to supply shocks, and could be applied to specific scenarios of environmental or economic perturbations.
supply↗
Mission operations update for the restructured Earth Observing System (EOS) mission
The National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth Observing System (EOS) will provide a comprehensive long term set of observations of the Earth to the Earth science research community. The data will aid in determining global changes caused both naturally and through human interaction. Understanding man's impact on the global environment will allow sound policy decisions to be made to protect our future. EOS is a major component of the Mission to Planet Earth program, which is NASA's contribution to the U.S. Global Change Research Program. EOS consists of numerous instruments on multiple spacecraft and a distributed ground system. The EOS Data and Information System (EOSDIS) is the major ground system developed to support EOS. The EOSDIS will provide EOS spacecraft command and control, data processing, product generation, and data archival and distribution services for EOS spacecraft. Data from EOS instruments on other Earth science missions (e.g., Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM)) will also be processed, distributed, and archived in EOSDIS. The U.S. and various International Partners (IP) (e.g., the European Space Agency (ESA), the Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI) of Japan, and the Canadian Space Agency (CSA)) participate in and contribute to the international EOS program. The EOSDIS will also archive processed data from other designated NASA Earth science missions (e.g., UARS) that are under the broad umbrella of Mission to Planet Earth.
Kelly, Angelita Castro↗
A US-Japan collaborative robotics research program
The Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) and the Electrotechnical Laboratory (ETL) have recently initiated a cooperative R&D effort in telerobotics. This new effort, sponsored by the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and Japan's Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI), has two major themes. First, our work broadens the outreach of space telerobotics R&D to international technical collaboration and facilities usage in the United States and Japan. Second, our work fosters development and demonstration of new operator interface technologies to improve the flexibility and reliability of ground-to-orbit telerobotic operations. This new technology is important, given the continuing imperatives to off-load platform maintenance from the extravehicular activity/intravehicular activity (EVA/IVA) crew to on-board robot assists under direct ground mission control.
Schenker, Paul S.↗
Assessing the Evolving Fragility of the Global Food System
The world food crisis in 2008 highlighted the susceptibility of the global food system to price shocks. Here we use annual staple food production and trade data from 1992-2009 to analyse the changing properties of the global food system. Over the 18-year study period, we show that the global food system is relatively homogeneous (85 of countries have low or marginal food self-sufficiency) and increases in complexity, with the number of global wheat and rice trade connections doubling and trade flows increasing by 42 and 90, respectively. The increased connectivity and flows within these global trade networks suggest that the global food system is vulnerable to systemic disruptions, especially considering the tendency for exporting countries to switch to non-exporting states during times of food scarcity in the global markets. To test this hypothesis, we superimpose continental-scale disruptions on the wheat and rice trade networks. We find greater absolute reductions in global wheat and rice exports along with larger losses in network connectivity as the networks evolve due to disruptions in European wheat and Asian rice production. Importantly, our findings indicate that least developed countries suffer greater import losses in more connected networks through their increased dependence on imports for staple foods (due to these large-scale disturbances): mean (median) wheat losses as percentages of staple food supply are 8.9 (3.8) for 1992-1996, increasing to 11 (5.7) for 20052009. Over the same intervals, rice losses increase from 8.2 (2.2) to 14 (5.2). Our work indicates that policy efforts should focus on balancing the efficiency of international trade (and its associated specialization) with increased resilience of domestic production and global demand diversity.
complex networks↗
Feeding Ten Billion People Is Possible Within Four Terrestrial Planetary Boundaries
Global agriculture puts heavy pressure on planetary boundaries, posing the challenge to achieve future food security without compromising Earth system resilience. On the basis of process-detailed, spatially explicit representation of four interlinked planetary boundaries (biosphere integrity, land-system change, freshwater use, nitrogen flows) and agricultural systems in an internally consistent model framework, we here show that almost half of current global food production depends on planetary boundary transgressions. Hotspot regions, mainly in Asia, even face simultaneous transgression of multiple underlying local boundaries. If these boundaries were strictly respected, the present food system could provide a balanced diet (2,355 kcal per capita per day) for 3.4 billion people only. However, as we also demonstrate, transformation towards more sustainable production and consumption patterns could support 10.2 billion people within the planetary boundaries analysed. Key prerequisites are spatially redistributed cropland, improved water–nutrient management, food waste reduction and dietary changes. Adoption of the Sustainable Development Goals by all nations in 2015 is the first ever commitment to a world development path that safeguards the stability of the Earth system as a prerequisite for meeting universal human standards1. The longstanding challenge of achieving food security through sustainable agriculture is particularly acute in this context as world agriculture is a leading cause for the current transgressions of multiple planetary boundaries (PBs) globally and regionally2–5. The PB framework is a comprehensive scientific attempt to synoptically define our planet’s biogeophysical limits to anthropogenic interference. It suggests bounds to nine interacting processes that together delineate a Holocene-like Earth system state. The Holocene is chosen as the reference state as it is the only period known to provide a safe operating space for a world population of several billion people, and according to a precautionary principle, the PBs are set in sufficient distance from processes that may critically undermine Earth system resilience and global sustainability. A challenging question, thus, is whether human development goals such as food security can be met while maintaining multiple PBs along with their subglobal manifestations. Further PB transgressions could jeopardize the chances of providing sufficient food for a world population projected to be wealthier and reach >9 billion by 2050. This conundrum portrays a tradeoff between Earth’s biophysical carrying capacity and humankind’s rising food demand, calling in response for radical rethinking of food production and consumption patterns6–9. Yield gap closures, avoidance of excessive input use, shifts towards less resource-demanding diets, food waste reductions and efficient international trade are crucial options for sustainably increasing the food supply10–15. For example, enhancing water-use efficiency on irrigated and rain-fed farms can triple or quadruple crop yields in low-performing systems, suggesting possible global gains of >20% (ref. 16). Even higher gains appear feasible through globally optimized configurations of the land-use pattern17, and cutting food losses by half could generate food for another billion people18. Thus, collective large-scale implementation of such options could sustain food for a further growing world population19. Yet achieving this within a safe operating space as defined by PBs requires not only a halt to but actually a reversal of existing PB transgressions. Previous studies suggest that such a reconciliation might be possible, but these were based on aggregate representations of PBs (not accounting for the spatial patterns of limits, transgressions and interactions) or considered only one boundary in isolation17,20–23. Here, we systematically quantify to what extent current food production depends on local to global transgressions of the PBs for biosphere integrity, land-system change, freshwater use and nitrogen (N) flows, along with the potential of a range of solutions to avoid these transgressions and still increase food supply (Table 1). To this end, we configured an internally consistent process-based model of the terrestrial biosphere including agriculture (LPJmL) with multiple spatially distributed PBs and their interactions. LPJmL is among the longest-established and best-evaluated biosphere models, showing robust performance regarding simulation of, for example, carbon, water and crop yield dynamics (Supplementary Figs. 1 and 2 and Supplementary Table 1; see ref. 24 for a comprehensive benchmarking and Supplementary Methods for more detail on model evaluations). In principle following established definitions4, we refine the computation of some PBs with respect to their regional patterns and interactions (Methods), providing globally gridded precautionary limits to human interference with the Earth system at a level of great detail. In particular, we account for the evidence that many PBs need to be represented spatially explicitly4 to cover their
Gerten, Dieter↗
SpaceVPX Interoperability Assessment
The existing VMEbus (VersaModular Eurocard bus) International Trade Association (VITA)-78 industry standard, also known as SpaceVPX, is an avionics board- and chassis-level standard derived from the OpenVPX standard as defined in VITA-65. While VITA-65 defines backplane and board-level profiles from COTS vendors to ensure interoperability of products used in developing systems and subsystems, the VITA-78 standard defines SpaceVPX to incorporate fault tolerance features that are required by many spaceflight systems. However, VITA-78 allows so much flexibility that interoperability between modules cannot be assured. This assessment provides guidelines on the use of, and extensions to, the VITA-78 standard to enable avionics interoperability for future NASA missions. The assessment team was comprised of subject matter experts (SMEs) from Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), Johnson Space Center (JSC), and Langley Research Center (LaRC). The team included valuable external consulting support from a SME who was a key participant in the development of the VITA-78 standard. The team had extensive collaboration with the NASA Space Technology Mission Directorate (STMD) High Performance Spaceflight Computing (HPSC) project, specifically in the development of SpaceVPX interconnect findings, observations, and NESC recommendations. To provide an understanding of the breadth of implementations that SpaceVPX must accommodate, multiple NASA use cases were analyzed to assess the requirements for SpaceVPX implementations across a wide range of NASA missions (Appendix C). Applications included crewed missions, science missions, and orbital and surface robotic systems. Product surveys were conducted to assess the level of industry support for SpaceVPX, applications, and the variations in their implementations (Appendix D). In-depth analysis was conducted in the areas of: (a) power management and distribution, (b) form factors and daughtercards, (c) interconnect, and (d) fault tolerance. Leveraging the use cases, product surveys, and SMEs from multiple NASA Centers, these areas were analyzed to determine the range of implementations permitted by the VITA-78 standard and potential interoperability issues. Applicable findings and NESC recommendations were provided for each area. During this assessment, there were multiple opportunities to engage with other agencies to learn about their interest in SpaceVPX, their strategies for implementing SpaceVPX-based systems, and their internal development efforts. These engagements also generated findings and NESC recommendations. Based on this assessment analysis, NESC recommendations were made regarding the feature set and module profiles to support NASA SpaceVPX implementations. This feature set includes restrictions on features in VITA-78, and extensions to the standard. Key recommendations in this area include the use of 10 Gigabit Ethernet and Peripheral Component Interconnect Express (PCIe) as high bandwidth interconnect on the backplane, the retention of SpaceWire interconnect for control functions, and support for 3U (unit) and 6U, form factors for NASA systems. Restrictions were proposed on the usage of user-defined signals to promote interoperability, and specific power managements and distribution schemes for 3U systems. Beyond the technical implementation of SpaceVPX, recommendations were made on areas that warrant further investigation. Primary among these is the recommendation for NASA to collaborate with other space-going agencies and industry to incorporate recommendations into a future ‘dot spec’ of VITA-78. This would ensure wide adoption and availability of the modules that comply with the specification. The assessment includes appendices with candidate module profiles that can be considered as a starting point for this activity, and example systems based on the recommendations. Follow-on studies are recommended for architectures beyond SpaceVPX to address potential enhancements including condensed set of interconnect, software required to implement protocol layers on the interconnect (and other features), alternative power architectures, and system-level testability.
SpaceVPX↗
A distribution benefits model for improved information on worldwide crop production. Volume 1: Model structure and application to wheat
The improved model is suitable for the study of benefits of worldwide information on a variety of crops. Application to the previously studied case of worldwide wheat production shows that about $108 million per year of distribution benefits to the United States would be achieved by a satellite-based wheat information system meeting the goals of LACIE. The model also indicates that improved information alone will not change world stock levels unless production itself is stabilized. The United States benefits mentioned above are associated with the reduction of price fluctuations within the year and the more effective use of international trade to balance supply and demand. Price fluctuations from year to year would be reduced only if production variability were itself reduced.
Andrews, J.↗
Aeronautics systems technology studies
Data collection and analysis in the areas of air transportation, aircraft manufacturing and sales, airline operations, market projections, internal trade, and energy consumption; legislation and regulations, technology needs; surveys; decision-making; cost analyses; and technology transfer are discussed.
Bauchspies, J. S.↗
Business in orbit - The commercial use of space
Current and proposed business opportunities in space are discussed. The advantages offered by the zero gravity environment of space are examined. The roles of the Space Shuttle and the Space Station in space commercialization are described. International development and use of the Space Station is proposed. It is observed that the communications satellite industry is a successful space venture, and opportunities for materials processing and pharmaceuticals production in space are considered. The relationship between NASA's Office of Commercial Programs, which assists businesses in space commercialization, and industry is studied. The impact of space commercialization on the national economy and international trade is analyzed.
Gillam, I. T., IV↗
Commercial potential of European and Japanese space programs, task 5
The current and expected future competitive status in the commercialization of space of the two principal programs competitive with NASA: the European Space Agency (ESA) and the program sponsored by the Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI) of Japan are evaluated, quantitatively assessed, and presented in usable format.
Source record↗
An Astronomical Pattern-Matching Algorithm for Automated Identification of Whale Sharks
The largest shark species alive today, whale sharks (Rhincodon typus) are rare and poorly studied. Directed fisheries, high value in international trade, a highly migratory nature, and generally low abundance make this species vulnerable to exploitation. Mark- and-recapture studies have provided our current understanding of whale shark demographics and life history, but conventional tagging has met with limited success. To aid in conservation and management efforts, and to further our knowledge of whale shark biology, an identification technology that maximizes the scientific value of individual sighting is needed.
Arzoumanian, Z.↗
Ares V: Enabling Unprecedented Payloads for Space in the 21st Century
Numerous technical and programmatic studies since the U.S. space program began in the 1960s has emphasized the need for a heavy lift capability for exploration beyond low Earth orbit (LEO). The Saturn V once embodied that capability until it was retired. Now the Ares V cargo launch vehicle (CaLV) promises to restore and improve on that capability, providing unprecedented opportunities for human and robotic exploration, science, national security and commercial uses. This paper provides an overview of the capabilities of Ares V, both as an opportunity for payloads of increased mass and/or volume, and as a means of reducing risk in the payload design process. The Ares V is part of NASA s Constellation Program, which also includes the Ares I crew launch vehicle (CLV), Orion crew exploration vehicle (CEV), and Altair lunar lander. This architecture is designed to carry out the national space policy goals of completing the International Space Station (ISS), retiring the Space Shuttle fleet, and expanding human exploration beyond LEO. The Ares V is designed to loft upper stages and/or cargo, such as the Altair lander, into LEO. The Ares I is designed to put Orion into LEO with a crew of up to four for rendezvous with the ISS or with the Ares V Earth departure stage for journeys to the Moon. While retaining the goals of heritage hardware and commonality, the Ares V configuration continues to be refined through a series of internal trades. The current reference configuration was recommended by the Ares Projects and approved by the Constellation Program during the Lunar Capabilities Concept Review (LCCR) June 2008. The reference configuration defines the Ares V as 381 feet (116m) tall with a gross lift-off mass (GLOM) of 8.1 million pounds (3,704.5 mT). Its first stage will generate 11 million pounds of sea-level liftoff thrust. It will be capable of launching 413,800 pounds (187.7 mT) to LEO, 138,500 pounds (63 mT) direct to the Moon or 156,700 pounds (71.1 mT) in its dual-launch architecture role with Ares I. It could also launch 123,100 pounds (55.8 mT) to Sun-Earth L2. Assessment of astronomy payload requirements since Spring 2008 has indicated that Ares V has the potential to support a range of payloads and missions. Some of these missions were impossible in the absence of Ares V s capabilities. Collaborative design/architecture inputs, exchanges, and analyses have already begun between scientists and payload developers. A 2008 study by a National Research Council (NRC) panel, as well as analyses presented by astronomers and planetary scientists at two weekend conferences in 2008, support the position that Ares V has benefit to a broad range of planetary and astronomy missions. This early dialogue with Ares V engineers is permitting the greatest opportunity for payload/transportation/mission synergy and with the least financial impact to Ares V development. In addition, independent analyses suggest that Ares V has the opportunity to enable more cost-effective mission design. 1
Creech, Steve↗
Climate Change Effects on Agriculture: Economic Responses to Biophysical Shocks
Agricultural production is sensitive to weather and thus directly affected by climate change. Plausible estimates of these climate change impacts require combined use of climate, crop, and economic models. Results from previous studies vary substantially due to differences in models, scenarios, and data. This paper is part of a collective effort to systematically integrate these three types of models. We focus on the economic component of the assessment, investigating how nine global economic models of agriculture represent endogenous responses to seven standardized climate change scenarios produced by two climate and five crop models. These responses include adjustments in yields, area, consumption, and international trade. We apply biophysical shocks derived from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's representative concentration pathway with end-of-century radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m(sup 2). The mean biophysical yield effect with no incremental CO2 fertilization is a 17% reduction globally by 2050 relative to a scenario with unchanging climate. Endogenous economic responses reduce yield loss to 11%, increase area of major crops by 11%, and reduce consumption by 3%. Agricultural production, cropland area, trade, and prices show the greatest degree of variability in response to climate change, and consumption the lowest. The sources of these differences include model structure and specification; in particular, model assumptions about ease of land use conversion, intensification, and trade. This study identifies where models disagree on the relative responses to climate shocks and highlights research activities needed to improve the representation of agricultural adaptation responses to climate change.
farm crops↗