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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
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DOE OSTI2021

Interpreting Write Performance of Supercomputer I/O Systems with Regression Models

This work seeks to advance the state of the art in HPC I/O performance analysis and interpretation. In particular, we demonstrate effective techniques to: (1) model output performance in the presence of I/O interference from production loads; (2) build features from write patterns and key parameters of the system architecture and configurations; (3) employ suitable machine learning algorithms to improve model accuracy. We train models with five popular regression algorithms and conduct experiments on two distinct production HPC platforms. We find that the lasso and random forest models predict output performance with high accuracy on both of the target systems. We also explore use of the models to guide adaptation in I/O middleware systems, and show potential for improvements of at least 15% from model-guided adaptation on 70% of samples, and improvements up to 10× on some samples for both of the target systems.

Xie, Bing↗
DOE OSTI2024

Teaching Freight Mode Choice Models New Tricks Using Interpretable Machine Learning Methods

Understanding and forecasting the intricate freight mode choice behavior under various industry, policy, and technology contexts is essential in freight planning and policymaking. Numerous models have been developed in prior studies to provide insights into freight mode selection, the majority of which use discrete choice models such as multinomial logit (MNL) models. However, logit models often rely on linear specifications of independent variables, despite potential nonlinear relationships in the data. Moreover, there often lacks a heuristic and efficient approach to identify such complex relationships to define the logit model specifications. To fill this gap, we developed an MNL model for freight mode choice using the insights from state-of-the- art machine learning (ML) models. ML models can capture the nonlinear nature of the complex decision-making process, and recent advances in 'explainable AI' have greatly improved their interpretability. The interpretable ML methods help enhance the performance of MNL models and advance knowledge of freight mode choice. Specifically, the influential factors and their relationship with individual modes are identified using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) to improve the MNL's performance. The workflow is demonstrated in a case study of Austin, Texas, and the SHAP results reveal multiple nonlinear relationships predicted by ML models. Incorporating those relationships into MNL model specifications improves the interpretability and accuracy of the MNL model compared to a conventional MNL model. Findings from this study can be used to guide freight planning and inform policymakers and practitioners on how key factors affect freight decision-making.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,MATHEMATICS AND COMPUT↗
DOE OSTI2022

Interpretable machine learning for knowledge generation in heterogeneous catalysis

Most applications of machine learning in heterogeneous catalysis thus far have used black-box models to predict computable physical properties (descriptors), such as adsorption or formation energies, that can be related to catalytic performance (that is, activity or stability). Here, extracting meaningful physical insights from these black-box models has proved challenging, as the internal logic of these black-box models is not readily interpretable due to their high degree of complexity. Interpretable machine learning methods that merge the predictive capacity of black-box models with the physical interpretability of physics-based models offer an alternative to black-box models. In this Perspective, we discuss the various interpretable machine learning methods available to catalysis researchers, highlight the potential of interpretable machine learning to accelerate hypothesis formation and knowledge generation, and outline critical challenges and opportunities for interpretable machine learning in heterogeneous catalysis.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Use of Physics to Improve Solar Forecast: Part II, Machine Learning and Model Interpretability

Machine learning (ML) models have been applied to forecast solar energy; however, they often lack clarity of interpretability and underlying physics. This work addresses such challenges by developing a hierarchy of ML models that gradually introduce predictors to improve the forecast accuracy based on a physics-based framework. Three ML models (ARIMA, LSTM, and XGBoost) are examined and compared with four physics-informed persistence models reported in Part I and the simple persistence model to assess the improvement of different models. The 7-year measurements at the U.S. Department of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement's Southern Great Plains Central Facility site are used for forecasts and evaluations. The results reveal that the step-by-step introduction of predictors leads to different improvements for models at different hierarchical levels. Comparison of the ML models with persistence models shows that LSTM and XGBoost outperform all the persistence models, with LSTM having the overall best performance; however, ARIMA underperforms the four physics-informed persistence models. This study demonstrates the importance and utility of incorporating physics into ML models in improving forecast accuracy by introducing a hierarchy of physics-based predictors, distinguishing predictor contributions, and enhancing the ML interpretability. The combined use of Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) and Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI) significantly improves the forecast accuracy compared to using individual irradiances alone because the pair contains more information on cloud-radiation interactions.

interpretability↗
DOE OSTI2024

CCUS 2024, Interpreting the strain tensor Larry Murdoch Interpreting strain tensor data to characterize and monitor reservoirs for CO2 storage and other applications

Recent advances in instrumentation have made it feasible to measure the transient strain tensor caused by small changes in fluid volume or pressure in the subsurface and this has opened the door to new opportunities for characterization and monitoring during CCUS. We have demonstrated this method by deploying strainmeters at shallow depths (30 to 40m) and then conducting injection well tests in an underlying reservoir at 530m depth. The resulting data indicated that the horizontal strain at shallow strainmeters was tensile and the vertical strain was compressive. The radial strain was less than the horizontal strain, and the strain rates decreased from 100 nanostrain/day to roughly 10 ne/d over a few days (1 nanostrain = 1 part per billion strain). We then used the strain data to estimate reservoir properties, geometry and pressure through inversion of poroelastic forward models using both numerical and novel analytical methods. The average horizontal strain in the caprock resembles the transient pressure in the underlying reservoir and classic type-curve methods from transient well testing can be used for preliminary interpretations of strain data. We have developed fast, closed-form analytical solutions to a pressurized poroelastic inclusion and inhomogeneity in a half-space. Numerical models developed using finite element methods allow more details of the subsurface to be included in the inversion, but they require much longer run times and this makes inversion cumbersome using standard methods. We have developed an inversion approach that uses a proxy model created using machine learning to do most of the forward calculations. This approach markedly reduces the computational requirements and makes it feasible to use Bayesian inversion with large numerical models. Bayesian inversion is important because it provides predictions with uncertainties, which makes the results useful for decision making. We have shown with field tests and simulations that the strain tensor in the caprock is sensitive to pressure in the reservoir, reservoir properties and boundaries, and pressure in the caprock caused by leaks. These results indicate that measuring and interpreting the shallow strain tensor could be a valuable tool for both initial reservoir characterization efforts and long-term monitoring during CCUS. Recent advances in instrumentation have made it feasible to measure the transient strain tensor caused by small changes in fluid volume or pressure in the subsurface and our objective was to evaluate opportunities for strain monitoring during characterization and monitoring for CCUS. Our approach was to deploy strainmeters at shallow depths (30 to 40m) and then conduct injection well tests in an underlying reservoir at 530m depth. The results indicate that the horizontal strain at shallow strainmeters was tensile and the vertical strain was compressive. The radial strain was less than the horizontal strain, and the strain rates decreased from 100 nanostrain/day to roughly 10 ne/d over a few days (1 nanostrain = 1 part per billion strain). We then used the strain data to estimate reservoir properties, geometry and pressure through inversion of poroelastic forward models using both numerical and novel analytical methods. The average horizontal strain in the caprock resembles the transient pressure in the underlying reservoir and classic type-curve methods from transient well testing can be used for preliminary interpretations of strain data. We have developed fast, closed-form analytical solutions to a pressurized poroelastic inclusion and inhomogeneity in a half-space. Numerical models developed using finite element methods allow more details of the subsurface to be included in the inversion, but they require much longer run times and this makes inversion cumbersome using standard methods. We have developed an inversion approach that uses a proxy model created using machine learning to do most of the forward calculations. This approach markedly reduces the computational requirements and makes it feasible to use Bayesian inversion with large numerical models. Bayesian inversion is important because it provides predictions with uncertainties, which makes the results useful for decision making. In conclusion, we have shown with field tests and simulations that the strain tensor in the caprock is sensitive to pressure in the reservoir, reservoir properties and boundaries, and pressure in the caprock caused by leaks. These results indicate that measuring and interpreting the shallow strain tensor could be a valuable tool for both initial reservoir characterization efforts and long-term monitoring during CCUS.

Murdoch, Larry↗
DOE OSTI2022

Virtual diffraction simulations using the quasi-coarse-grained dynamics method to understand and interpret plasticity contributions during in situ shock experiments

The dynamic deformation response of metallic materials has contributions from dislocations, deformation twinning, and plastic deformation. The current state-of-art techniques can detail the complex mechanistic history of deformation modes under shock loading in real-time using in situ X-ray diffraction (XRD). However, the capability of these experiments to unravel plasticity contributions is challenging due to limitations in interpreting results and the lack of validation from atomistic simulations. Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations can successfully capture various deformation modes in metals and complement experiments using simulated diffractograms at various stages of evolution. However, the difference in length and time scales of MD simulations and experiments is a substantial obstacle in completing and interpreting in situ diffractograms. Therefore, the existing modeling methods require various approximations to model defect evolution and interaction at the mesoscales. However, while using approximations to correlate the peak broadening behavior to the density of dislocations or the shifts/splitting due to the presence of twins, the interpretations of the plasticity contributions from diffractograms are non-trivial, especially when multiple modes of deformation may be operating. This viewpoint discusses combining a mesoscale modeling method called quasi-coarse-grained dynamics and virtual XRD to characterize the plasticity contributions in BCC metals from slip, twinning, and phase transformation behavior. Furthermore, the combined approach shows promise in bridging the mesoscale gap between the capabilities of atomic-scale simulations and in situ experiments to characterize the dynamic deformation of materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Ab Initio Molecular Dynamics Simulations of Amorphous Calcium Carbonate: Interpretation of Pair Distribution Function and X-Ray Absorption Spectroscopy Data

The structure and transformation of hydrous amorphous calcium carbonate (ACC) are key to understanding biomineralization pathways and their relationship with the properties of the resulting material. Quantitative interpretation of scattering experiments aimed at elucidating the structure of ACC is challenging, due to the amorphous nature of this material, and, therefore, requires models for the structure and the scattering physics. Here, we generate physically realistic ensembles of hydrated ACC structures and their vibrational disorder from ab initio molecular dynamics (AIMD) simulations with an emphasis on enabling the consistent interpretation of the finer details of three complementary structural probes: neutron and x-ray pair distribution experiments and x-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS). In each case, we simulate the signal directly in reciprocal space and then manipulate it into the real-space pair distribution function (PDF) or spectrum using the same procedures for the experimental and theoretical data. Good agreement with experiment was obtained across the three techniques with the simulations accounting well for all features in the spectra. Remaining small discrepancies pointed to differences between real samples and the idealized simulated systems such as deviations from the nominal CaCO3·nH2O stoichiometry. Additionally, the simulations offered a more accurate description of the local coordination environment of calcium than previous shell-by-shell fits to spectra of synthetic ACC and classical molecular dynamics simulations. This work demonstrates that AIMD is a powerful approach for extracting detailed structural information from neutron PDF, x-ray PDF, and XAS of amorphous carbonate phases.

Prange, Micah P.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Interpreting the Operando XANES of Surface-Supported Subnanometer Clusters: When Fluxionality, Oxidation State, and Size Effect Fight.

X-ray absorption near edge structure (XANES) spectroscopy is widely used for operando catalyst characterization. We show that, for highly fluxional supported nanoclusters, the customary extraction of the oxidation state of the metal from the XANES data by fitting to the bulk standards is highly questionable. The XANES signatures as well as the apparent oxidation state for such clusters arise from a complex combination of many factors, and not only from the chemical composition in reaction conditions (e.g., oxygen content in oxidizing atmosphere). The thermally accessible isomerization and population of several structurally distinct cluster forms, cluster-support interaction, and intrinsic size effects all impact the metal oxidation state and XANES signal. We demonstrate this on copper oxide clusters with different compositions, Cu4Ox(x = 2-5) and Cu5Oy (y = 3, 5), deposited on amorphous alumina and ultrananocrystalline diamond, for which we computed the XANES spectra and compare the results to the experiment. We show in addition that fitting the experimental spectrum to calculated spectra of supported clusters can, in contrast, provide good agreement and insight into the spectrum-composition-structure relation. Experimental XANES interpreted using the proposed fitting scheme shows the partial reduction of Cu oxide clusters at rising temperatures, and pinpoints the specific stoichiometries that dominate in the ensemble of cluster states as the temperature changes.

Zandkarimi, Borna↗
DOE OSTI2026

Interpretable Models for Workflow Differentiation in High-Performance Scientific Networks

Scientific workflows in high-performance networks spawn hundreds of interdependent flows that must be managed collectively—yet existing network classifiers treat each flow in isolation, leading to fragmented QoS decisions and missed interflow patterns. We present a novel traffic classification solution that operates at the workflow level, distinguishing entire filetransfer operations from streaming analytics by capturing how concurrent flows interact and burst together. We introduce a workflow identification window (WIW) that ingests raw packet headers from parallel flows into unified tensors, preserving the spatial-temporal patterns that differentiate scientific workflows. This approach achieves 98.7% accuracy using CNN, LSTM, and hybrid architectures, while maintaining 84% accuracy on production traffic collected a week later—demonstrating robustness to temporal drift. By integrating SHAP and GradCAM explainability, we reveal that early-packet timing patterns and cross-flow correlations drive classification decisions, providing operators with interpretable insights. Our system enables coherent workflow-level QoS enforcement and dynamic bandwidth allocation in scientific networks, eliminating manual per-flow configuration while maintaining classification latency at millisecond level.

Giannakou, Anna [LBL, Berkeley]↗
DOE OSTI2020

Rapid Identification of X-ray Diffraction Patterns Based on Very Limited Data by Interpretable Convolutional Neural Networks

Large volumes of data from material characterizations call for rapid and automatic data analysis to accelerate materials discovery. Herein, we report a convolutional neural network (CNN) that was trained based on theoretical data and very limited experimental data for fast identification of experimental X-ray diffraction (XRD) patterns of metal–organic frameworks (MOFs). To augment the data for training the model, noise was extracted from experimental data and shuffled; then it was merged with the main peaks that were extracted from theoretical spectra to synthesize new spectra. For the first time, one-to-one material identification was achieved. Theoretical MOFs patterns (1012) were augmented to a whole data set of 72 864 samples. It was then randomly shuffled and split into training (58 292 samples) and validation (14 572 samples) data sets at a ratio of 4:1. For the task of discriminating, the optimized model showed the highest identification accuracy of 96.7% for the top 5 ranking on a test data set of 30 hold-out samples. Neighborhood component analysis (NCA) on the experimental XRD samples shows that the samples from the same material are clustered in groups in the NCA map. Analysis on the class activation maps of the last CNN layer further discloses the mechanism by which the CNN model successfully identifies individual MOFs from the XRD patterns. Furthermore, this CNN model trained by the data augmentation technique would not only open numerous potential applications for identifying XRD patterns for different materials, but also pave avenues to autonomously analyze data by other characterization tools such as FTIR, Raman, and NMR spectroscopies.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Theoretical Prediction and Interpretation of 237 Np Mössbauer Isomer Shifts

Different theoretical approaches for the calculation of 237 Np Mössbauer isomer shifts are investigated. The traditional contact density route is compared to a previously proposed alternative approach that uses energy derivatives with respect to the nuclear radius. Both approaches yield similar results as long as suitable basis sets augmented with large exponents and relativistic methods are used. Density functional theory (DFT) calculations do not show a strong dependency of the 237 Np isomer shift on the chosen functional. Wavefunction calculations show that dynamic electron correlation can be important when covalent bonding influences the isomer shift. Effects from spin–orbit coupling are small. The isomer shifts of ionic solids and Np(III) organometallic complexes are largely governed by the oxidation state of Np. Isomer shifts of organometallic Np(IV) complexes are strongly affected by donation bonding. Furthermore, detailed analysis of the wavefunction results with different active spaces demonstrates that correlation among the outer core Np and occupied ligand frontier orbitals contributes significantly to isomer shifts of Np(IV) compounds.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Calculation and interpretation of classical turning surfaces in solids

Abstract Classical turning surfaces of Kohn–Sham potentials separate classically allowed regions (CARs) from classically forbidden regions (CFRs). They are useful for understanding many chemical properties of molecules but need not exist in solids, where the density never decays to zero. At equilibrium geometries, we find that CFRs are absent in perfect metals, rare in covalent semiconductors at equilibrium, but common in ionic and molecular crystals. In all materials, CFRs appear or grow as the internuclear distances are uniformly expanded. They can also appear at a monovacancy in a metal. Calculations with several approximate density functionals and codes confirm these behaviors. A classical picture of conduction suggests that CARs should be connected in metals, and disconnected in wide-gap insulators, and is confirmed in the limits of extreme compression and expansion. Surprisingly, many semiconductors have no CFR at equilibrium, a key finding for density functional construction. Nonetheless, a strong correlation with insulating behavior can still be inferred. Moreover, equilibrium bond lengths for all cases can be estimated from the bond type and the sum of the classical turning radii of the free atoms or ions.

Chemistry↗