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Results for “intractable likelihood”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2009

Error-Rate Bounds for Coded PPM on a Poisson Channel

Equations for computing tight bounds on error rates for coded pulse-position modulation (PPM) on a Poisson channel at high signal-to-noise ratio have been derived. These equations and elements of the underlying theory are expected to be especially useful in designing codes for PPM optical communication systems. The equations and the underlying theory apply, more specifically, to a case in which a) At the transmitter, a linear outer code is concatenated with an inner code that includes an accumulator and a bit-to-PPM-symbol mapping (see figure) [this concatenation is known in the art as "accumulate-PPM" (abbreviated "APPM")]; b) The transmitted signal propagates on a memoryless binary-input Poisson channel; and c) At the receiver, near-maximum-likelihood (ML) decoding is effected through an iterative process. Such a coding/modulation/decoding scheme is a variation on the concept of turbo codes, which have complex structures, such that an exact analytical expression for the performance of a particular code is intractable. However, techniques for accurately estimating the performances of turbo codes have been developed. The performance of a typical turbo code includes (1) a "waterfall" region consisting of a steep decrease of error rate with increasing signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) at low to moderate SNR, and (2) an "error floor" region with a less steep decrease of error rate with increasing SNR at moderate to high SNR. The techniques used heretofore for estimating performance in the waterfall region have differed from those used for estimating performance in the error-floor region. For coded PPM, prior to the present derivations, equations for accurate prediction of the performance of coded PPM at high SNR did not exist, so that it was necessary to resort to time-consuming simulations in order to make such predictions. The present derivation makes it unnecessary to perform such time-consuming simulations.

Moision, Bruce↗
NASA NTRS2015

Simulation of Liquid Rocket Engine Failure Propagation Using Self-Evolving Scenarios

Traditional probabilistic risk assessment approaches often require failure scenarios to be explicitly defined through event sequences that are then quantified as part of the integrated analysis. This approach becomes difficult when failure propagation paths change as a function of the system operation. Additionally, if the propagation paths represent interactions among even a modest number of components, the scenario count becomes combinatorially intractable. This paper presents an alternate approach for quantifying the probability of failure propagation in such a case. Rather than explicitly defining scenario sequences, simple physical models are created for each of the components. In this way, only the physical states and rules of component interactions must be defined, rather than event sequences for each individual scenario. Initiating failures are introduced into the system, either randomly or as defined by relative likelihood, and the failures cascade through the system via the interaction rules. This process is repeated using Monte Carlo methods and, as a result, the most probable scenarios “self-evolve” in terms of both sequence path and frequency. This approach was applied to failures occurring in the engine compartment of a space launch vehicle with four liquid rocket engines and four high-pressure helium tanks. Each engine was modeled with key components, such as turbomachinery, combustion chamber, propellant lines, and additional support systems. Three test cases were conducted with different high-energy engine failures. End results of interest included an additional engine-out failure and tank burst, which represent the loss-of-mission (LOM) and loss-of-crew (LOC) failure environments, respectively. Observations show that almost every scenario outcome is unique and that many scenarios involve complex chain reactions that are difficult to predict. This validates the usefulness of the modeling approach in assessing the overall risks to the crew during a launch vehicle abort.

Rocket Engine↗
NASA NTRS1999

Development of Fuzzy Logic and Soft Computing Methodologies

Our earlier research on computing with words (CW) has led to a new direction in fuzzy logic which points to a major enlargement of the role of natural languages in information processing, decision analysis and control. This direction is based on the methodology of computing with words and embodies a new theory which is referred to as the computational theory of perceptions (CTP). An important feature of this theory is that it can be added to any existing theory - especially to probability theory, decision analysis, and control - and enhance the ability of the theory to deal with real-world problems in which the decision-relevant information is a mixture of measurements and perceptions. The new direction is centered on an old concept - the concept of a perception - a concept which plays a central role in human cognition. The ability to reason with perceptions perceptions of time, distance, force, direction, shape, intent, likelihood, truth and other attributes of physical and mental objects - underlies the remarkable human capability to perform a wide variety of physical and mental tasks without any measurements and any computations. Everyday examples of such tasks are parking a car, driving in city traffic, cooking a meal, playing golf and summarizing a story. Perceptions are intrinsically imprecise. Imprecision of perceptions reflects the finite ability of sensory organs and ultimately, the brain, to resolve detail and store information. More concretely, perceptions are both fuzzy and granular, or, for short, f-granular. Perceptions are f-granular in the sense that: (a) the boundaries of perceived classes are not sharply defined; and (b) the elements of classes are grouped into granules, with a granule being a clump of elements drawn together by indistinguishability, similarity. proximity or functionality. F-granularity of perceptions may be viewed as a human way of achieving data compression. In large measure, scientific progress has been, and continues to be, driven by a quest to progress from perceptions to measurements. Pursuit of this aim has led to brilliant successes. But alongside the successes stand problems whose solutions are not in sight. Representative of such problems is the problem of automation of driving in city traffic. In this case, as in many others, what can be done with ease by humans - without any measurements and a computations - is an intractable task for machines.

Zadeh, L. A.↗