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DOE OSTI2024

Predicting responses to climate change using a joint species, spatially dependent physiologically guided abundance model

Abstract Predicting the effects of warming temperatures on the abundance and distribution of organisms under future climate scenarios often requires extrapolating species–environment correlations to climatic conditions not currently experienced by a species, which can result in unrealistic predictions. For poikilotherms, incorporating species' thermal physiology to inform extrapolations under novel thermal conditions can result in more realistic predictions. Furthermore, models that incorporate species and spatial dependencies may improve predictions by capturing correlations present in ecological data that are not accounted for by predictor variables. Here, we present a joint species, spatially dependent physiologically guided abundance (jsPGA) model for predicting multispecies responses to climate warming. The jsPGA model uses a basis function approach to capture both species and spatial dependencies. We apply the jsPGA model to predict the response of eight fish species to projected climate warming in thousands of lakes in Minnesota, USA. By the end of the century, the cold‐adapted species was predicted to have high probabilities of extirpation across its current range—with 10% of lakes currently inhabited by this species having an extirpation probability >0.90. The remaining species had varying levels of predicted changes in abundance, reflecting differences in their thermal physiology. Though the model did not identify many strong species dependencies, the variation in estimated spatial dependence across species suggested that accounting for both dependencies was important for predicting the abundance of these fishes. The jsPGA model provides a new tool for predicting changes in the abundance, distribution, and extirpation probability of poikilotherms under novel thermal conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Identification of Solid-Electrolyte Interphase Species by Joint Characterization of Li-Ion Battery Chemistry by Mass Spectrometry and Electrochemical Reaction Networks

The formation and stability of the solid-electrolyte interphase (SEI) play central roles in determining the long-term performance and safety of modern electrochemical energy storage systems. Despite decades of research, the SEI’s heterogeneous, dynamic, and multiphase nature has defied comprehensive molecular-level characterization, creating a critical knowledge gap that limits rational battery design. In this work, we introduce a computational−experimental framework that integrates high-throughput quantum chemistry calculations, data-driven electrochemical reaction networks (eCRNs), stochastic algorithms, and laser desorption/ionization Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (LDI-FTICR-MS) to unravel SEI formation in carbonatebased electrolytes without imposing predefined mechanisms. We constructed the most comprehensive eCRN to date, spanning over 10,000 species and 209 million reactions. Through stochastic network analysis, we successfully recovered 27 species that were previously reported in the literature and predicted 28 novel SEI species nearly doubling our scientific knowledge in this area. Each new species was rigorously confirmed through advanced mass spectral analysis of its distinct molecular and isotopic signatures. We kinetically refined the formation pathways for a select set of both previously reported and novel SEI products, revealing kinetically feasible elementary reaction mechanisms with activation barriers below 1 eV. This computational−experimental approach deepens our molecular-level understanding of SEI chemistry by resolving which species form and through which decomposition mechanisms they emerge. Such knowledge provides the foundation necessary to connect electrolyte composition to the resulting SEI components, a critical step toward a more informed electrolyte development in next-generation lithium-based batteries.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Surface and subsurface oceanographic features drive forage fish distributions and aggregations: Implications for prey availability to top predators in the US Northeast Shelf ecosystem

Abstract Forage fishes are a critical food web link in marine ecosystems, aggregating in a hierarchical patch structure over multiple spatial and temporal scales. Surface‐level forage fish aggregations (FFAs) represent a concentrated source of prey available to surface‐ and shallow‐foraging marine predators. Existing survey and analysis methods are often imperfect for studying forage fishes at scales appropriate to foraging predators, making it difficult to quantify predator–prey interactions. In many cases, general distributions of forage fish species are known; however, these may not represent surface‐level prey availability to predators. Likewise, we lack an understanding of the oceanographic drivers of spatial patterns of prey aggregation and availability or forage fish community patterns. Specifically, we applied Bayesian joint species distribution models to bottom trawl survey data to assess species‐ and community‐level forage fish distribution patterns across the US Northeast Continental Shelf (NES) ecosystem. Aerial digital surveys gathered data on surface FFAs at two project sites within the NES, which we used in a spatially explicit hierarchical Bayesian model to estimate the abundance and size of surface FFAs. We used these models to examine the oceanographic drivers of forage fish distributions and aggregations. Our results suggest that, in the NES, regions of high community species richness are spatially consistent with regions of high surface FFA abundance. Bathymetric depth drove both patterns, while subsurface features, such as mixed layer depth, primarily influenced aggregation behavior and surface features, such as sea surface temperature, sub‐mesoscale eddies, and fronts influenced forage fish diversity. In combination, these models help quantify the availability of forage fishes to marine predators and represent a novel application of spatial models to aerial digital survey data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Tonal Emergence: An agent-based model of tonal coordination

Humans have a remarkable capacity for coordination. Our ability to interact and act jointly in groups is crucial to our success as a species. Joint Action (JA) research has often concerned itself with simplistic behaviors in highly constrained laboratory tasks. But there has been a growing interest in understanding complex coordination in more open-ended contexts. In this regard, collective music improvisation has emerged as a fascinating model domain for studying basic JA mechanisms in an unconstrained and highly sophisticated setting. A number of empirical studies have begun to elucidate coordination mechanisms underlying joint musical improvisation, but these empirical findings have yet to be cached out in a working computational model. The present work fills this gap by presenting TonalEmergence, an idealized agent-based model of improvised musical coordination. TonalEmergence models the coordination of notes played by improvisers to generate harmony (i.e., tonality), by simulating agents that stochastically generate notes biased towards maximizing harmonic consonance given their partner’s previous notes. Here, the model replicates an interesting empirical result from a previous study of professional jazz pianists: feedback loops of mutual adaptation between interacting agents support the production of consonant harmony. The model is further explored to show how complex tonal dynamics, such as the production and dissolution of stable tonal centers, are supported by agents that are characterized by (i) a tendency to strive toward consonance, (ii) stochasticity, and (iii) a limited memory for previously played notes. TonalEmergence thus provides a grounded computational model to simulate and probe the coordination mechanisms underpinning one of the more remarkable feats of human cognition: collective music improvisation.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Mapping Post-Climate Change Biogeographical Regions with Deep Latent Variable Models

Forecasting future changes to biodiversity due to shifts in climate is challenging due to nonlinear interactions between species as recorded in their presence/absence data. This work proposes using variational autoencoders with environmental covariates to identify low-dimensional structure in species’ joint co-occurrence patterns and leveraging this simplified representation to provide multivariate predictions of their habitat extent under future climate scenarios. We pursue a latent space clustering approach to map biogeographical regions of frequently co-occurring species and apply this methodology to a dataset from northern Belgium, generating predictive maps illustrating how these regions may expand or contract with changing temperature under a future climate scenario.

Krapu, Chris↗

DOE OSTI2020

Retrieval of energy spectra for all flavours of neutrinos from core-collapse supernova with multiple detectors

ABSTRACT We present a new method by which to retrieve energy spectrum for all falvours of neutrinos from core-collapse supernova (CCSN). In the retrieval process, we do not assume any analytic formulas to express the energy spectrum of neutrinos but rather take a direct way of spectrum reconstruction from the observed data; the singular value decomposition algorithm with a newly developed adaptive energy-gridding technique is adopted. We employ three independent reaction channels having different flavour sensitivity to neutrinos. Two reaction channels, inverse beta decay on proton and elastic scattering on electrons, from a water Cherenkov detector such as Super-Kamiokande (SK) and Hyper-Kamiokande (HK), and a charged current reaction channel with Argon from the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE) are adopted. Given neutrino oscillation models, we iteratively search the neutrino energy spectra at the CCSN source until they provide the consistent event counts in the three reaction channels. We test the capability of our method by demonstrating the spectrum retrieval to a theoretical neutrino data computed by our recent three-dimensional CCSN simulation. Although the energy spectrum with either electron-type or electron-type antineutrinos at the CCSN source has relatively large error compared to that of other species, the joint analysis with HK + DUNE or SK + DUNE will provide precise energy spectrum of all flavours of neutrinos at the source. Finally, we discuss perspectives for improvements of our method by using neutrino data of other detectors.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Direct numerical simulations of three-component Rayleigh–Taylor mixing and an improved model for multicomponent reacting mixtures

We present direct numerical simulations of a three-layer Rayleigh–Taylor instability (RTI) problem with a configuration based on the experiments of Suchandra & Ranjan ( J. Fluid Mech. , vol. 974, 2023, A35) and Jacobs & Dalziel ( J. Fluid Mech. , vol. 542, 2005, pp. 251–279). The problem consists of a layer of light fluid between two layers of heavy fluid with an Atwood number of 0.3. These simulations are first validated through comparison with available experimental data. The validated simulations are then utilized to analyse statistics in this three-component flow. First, length scales are examined utilizing spectra and two-point spatial correlations of velocity and species concentration fluctuations. Next, joint probability density functions (p.d.f.s) of species concentration are compared against several model p.d.f.s representing generalizations of the bivariate beta distribution. Notably, the joint p.d.f.s do not appear to be accurately described by a Dirichlet distribution, indicating the marginal distributions do not conform to a beta distribution. Finally, similarity of the present configuration to three-component mixing found in inertial confinement fusion (ICF) applications is exploited to develop and validate an improved model for the impact of multicomponent mixing on thermonuclear (TN) reaction rates. A single time instant from the present simulations is chosen for a TN burn calculation under the hypothetical assumption of ICF materials and temperatures. Total TN output from this second calculation is then compared against the prediction of the improved model. The new model is found to accurately predict TN reaction rates in both premixed and non-premixed configurations.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Sulfur Species in Zinc-Rich Condylar Zones of a Rat Temporomandibular Joint

We performed synchrotron-based micro-X-ray absorption near-edge spectroscopy (µ-XANES) coupled with micro-X-ray fluorescence (µ-XRF) for the identification of elements that included biometal zinc (Zn) and nonmetal sulfur (S) (and its species) in the condylar zones of a rat temporomandibular joint (TMJ). Zone-specific spatial localization of biometal Zn and nonmetal S from a materials viewpoint when correlated with hypoxia inducible factor-1α (HIF-1α) (a surrogate for tissue oxygenation) can provide insights into Zn-specific redox pathways at the vulnerable subchondral interface. Histologic localization of Zn, HIF-1α, and sulfur-rich proteoglycans (PGs) were mapped using an optical microscope. The µ-XRF maps coupled with site-specific micro-X-ray diffraction (µ-XRD) patterns were used to underline Zn-incorporated biological apatite in the subchondral bone and the bone of a rat TMJ condyle. Results demonstrated an association between Zn, PG, and HIF-1α histologic maps with µ-XRF, µ-XANES, and µ-XRD data and provided insights into plausible biological S species in Zn-enriched zones of a rat TMJ condyle. Spatially localized Zn and S underscore their roles in cell and tissue functions in a zone-specific manner. Elemental Zn with organic and inorganic S species at the cartilage-bone interface and the biomineral phase of Zn-enriched biological apatite from subchondral bone to condylar bone were ascertained using µ-XRF-XANES and µ-XRF-XRD. The coupled µ-XRF-XANES in situ complemented with µ-XRF-XRD in situ and immunohistochemistry provided valuable biological insights into zone-specific biological pathways in rat TMJ condyles. Based on these data, we present a workflow to reliably map and correlate S species within Zn-enriched regions of cartilage, bone, and their interface. We suggest the use of this correlative and complementary microspectroscopic spatial information for zone-specific localization of biometal Zn and nonmetal S to gain insights into plausible microanatomy-specific oxidative stress in the TMJ.

apatites↗

DOE OSTI2024

Climate, food and humans predict communities of mammals in the United States

Abstract Aim The assembly of species into communities and ecoregions is the result of interacting factors that affect plant and animal distribution and abundance at biogeographic scales. Here, we empirically derive ecoregions for mammals to test whether human disturbance has become more important than climate and habitat resources in structuring communities. Location Conterminous United States. Time Period 2010–2021. Major Taxa Studied Twenty‐five species of mammals. Methods We analysed data from 25 mammal species recorded by camera traps at 6645 locations across the conterminous United States in a joint modelling framework to estimate relative abundance of each species. We then used a clustering analysis to describe 8 broad and 16 narrow mammal communities. Results Climate was the most important predictor of mammal abundance overall, while human population density and agriculture were less important, with mixed effects across species. Seed production by forests also predicted mammal abundance, especially hard‐mast tree species. The mammal community maps are similar to those of plants, with an east–west split driven by different dominant species of deer and squirrels. Communities vary along gradients of temperature in the east and precipitation in the west. Most fine‐scale mammal community boundaries aligned with established plant ecoregions and were distinguished by the presence of regional specialists or shifts in relative abundance of widespread species. Maps of potential ecosystem services provided by these communities suggest high herbivory in the Rocky Mountains and eastern forests, high invertebrate predation in the subtropical south and greater predation pressure on large vertebrates in the west. Main Conclusions Our results highlight the importance of climate to modern mammals and suggest that climate change will have strong impacts on these communities. Our new empirical approach to recognizing ecoregions has potential to be applied to expanded communities of mammals or other taxa.

Kays, Roland↗

DOE OSTI2022

Modeling the Joint Effects of Vegetation Characteristics and Soil Properties on Ecosystem Dynamics in a Panama Tropical Forest

Abstract In tropical forests, both vegetation characteristics and soil properties are important not only for controlling energy, water, and gas exchanges directly but also determining the competition among species, successional dynamics, forest structure and composition. However, the joint effects of the two factors have received limited attention in Earth system model development. Here we use a vegetation demographic model, the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) implemented in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model (ELM), ELM‐FATES, to explore how plant traits and soil properties affect tropical forest growth and composition concurrently. A large ensemble of simulations with perturbed vegetation and soil hydrological parameters is conducted at the Barro Colorado Island, Panama. The simulations are compared against observed carbon, energy, and water fluxes. We find that soil hydrological parameters, particularly the scaling exponent of the soil retention curve ( B sw ), play crucial roles in controlling forest diversity, with higher B sw values (>7) favoring late successional species in competition, and lower B sw values (1 ∼ 7) promoting the coexistence of early and late successional plants. Considering the additional impact of soil properties resolves a systematic bias of FATES in simulating sensible/latent heat partitioning with repercussion on water budget and plant coexistence. A greater fraction of deeper tree roots can help maintain the dry‐season soil moisture and plant gas exchange. As soil properties are as important as vegetation parameters in predicting tropical forest dynamics, more efforts are needed to improve parameterizations of soil functions and belowground processes and their interactions with aboveground vegetation dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Bridging Place-Based Astrobiology Education with Genomics, Including Descriptions of Three Novel Bacterial Species Isolated from Mars Analog Sites of Cultural Relevance

Democratizing genomic data science, including bioinformatics, can diversify the STEM workforce and may, in turn, bring new perspectives into the space sciences. In this respect, the development of education and research programs that bridge genome science with “place” and world-views specific to a given region are valuable for Indigenous students and educators. Through a multi-institutional collaboration, we developed an ongoing education program and model that includes Illumina and Oxford Nanopore sequencing, free bioinformatic platforms, and teacher training workshops to address our research and education goals through a place-based science education lens. High school students and researchers cultivated, sequenced, assembled, and annotated the genomes of 13 bacteria from Mars analog sites with cultural relevance, 10 of which were novel species. Students, teachers, and community members assisted with the discovery of new, potentially chemolithotrophic bacteria relevant to astrobiology. This joint education-research program also led to the discovery of species from Mars analog sites capable of producing N-acyl homoserine lactones, which are quorum-sensing molecules used in bacterial communication. Whole genome sequencing was completed in high school classrooms, and connected students to funded space research, increased research output, and provided culturally relevant, place-based science education, with participants naming three novel species described here. Students at St. Andrew's School (Honolulu, Hawai‘i) proposed the name Bradyrhizobium prioritasuperba for the type strain, BL16A T , of the new species (DSM 112479 T = NCTC 14602 T ). The nonprofit organization Kauluakalana proposed the name Brenneria ulupoensis for the type strain, K61 T , of the new species (DSM 116657 T = LMG = 33184 T ), and Hawai‘i Baptist Academy students proposed the name Paraflavitalea speifideiaquila for the type strain, BL16E T , of the new species (DSM 112478 T = NCTC 14603 T ).

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Structural and antibacterial properties of NSAID-loaded ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene

Peri-articular delivery of pain medication in joint arthroplasty has the potential to address post-operative pain and decrease the use of systemic opioids. Additionally, the sustained release from a delivery vehicle may be especially impactful in the initial post-operative period when pain is most severe. We recently described a novel approach for the sustained intra-articular delivery of an analgesic (bupivacaine) from an ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene (UHMWPE) bearing surface. A secondary but very significant effect of incorporating bupivacaine in UHMWPE was its antibacterial effect against Staphylococcal species, which are associated with the majority of periprosthetic joint infections. Here, we report on the structure, properties, elution characteristics and antibacterial properties of UHMWPE loaded with the non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID) — tolfenamic acid. We showed that 6 wt% drug loading was optimal for eluting clinically relevant intra-articular and systemic concentrations, for maintaining mechanical properties at a clinically relevant level, and for providing anti-colonization potential against low risk (planktonic) and high risk (biofilm forming) Staphylococcal species. We determined the osteoblast response to the tolfenamic acid-loaded UHMWPE to evaluate the cytotoxicity profile of this novel material. Tolfenamic acid-loaded UHMWPE has the potential to be used as a part of multimodal pain management therapy following arthroplasty and may provide prophylaxis for periprosthetic infection.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evaluation of probability density function descriptions for three-component Rayleigh–Taylor mixing

Results from simulations of a three-component Rayleigh–Taylor (RT) mixing problem are presented. These simulations are conducted in heavy–light–heavy and heavy–intermediate–light configurations, and each of these configurations are further considered in high- and low-Reynolds-number regimes. This results in RT-unstable flow with one or both interfaces initially unstable, permitting the influence of problem configuration on the statistical description of three-component RT-driven mixing to be considered. Mass fraction covariances are observed to undergo a sign change through the mixing layer in all four configurations considered. This appears to be unique to the multi-component case and represents another way in which multi-component RT mixing differs from the two-component case. Qualitative and quantitative comparisons of joint and marginal probability density function (PDF) descriptions of species concentration are made. Three-, five-, and six-parameter model PDFs are compared against simulation data to assess how accurately they describe the mixing, and it is found that three-component mixing requires at least a five-parameter model PDF to accurately describe the mixing. Notably, the marginal distributions of three-component mixing do not appear to conform to a beta distribution, representing a departure from the classical two-component RT case. In conclusion, statistical neutrality also appears to influence the optimal choice of model PDF, which is found to be a function of problem configuration.

Large-eddy simulation↗

DOE OSTI2026

Salt supplementation-induced metabolic reprogramming in Streptomyces coelicolor

Members of the genus Streptomyces are major producers of a wide variety of secondary metabolites that serve as bioactive compounds. Many secondary metabolites are produced in response to environmental signals such as biotic and abiotic stresses. In this study, we identified salt supplementation as one of the stimuli activating secondary metabolism in the model Streptomyces species, Streptomyces coelicolor. Comparative metabolomics revealed overproduction of several known secondary metabolites, most notably undecylprodigiosin and coelimycin P1, in addition to their biosynthetic intermediates and derivatives, as well as many unknown metabolites. Transcriptomic analysis revealed activation of diverse biological processes including cation uptake, compatible solute production, and the phosphate limitation stress response through conserved and species-specific mechanisms, presumably to overcome the increased salinity. This response leads to activation of a variety of regulatory and metabolic pathways required for production of secondary metabolites including activation of conserved metabolic pathways for energy and substrate supply and species-specific secondary metabolite biosynthetic gene clusters. Furthermore, several promoter sequences contributing to upregulation of secondary metabolism induced by salt supplementation were identified. Overall, our data show how S. coelicolor copes with the increased salinity and tailors the cellular metabolism toward secondary metabolism in a conserved and species-specific manner.

Otani, Hiroshi [USDOE Joint Genome Institute (JGI)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Corrosion Testing of Refractory in Contact with Molten Glasses Designed for Waste Vitrification

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2025

Corrosion Testing of Refractory in Contact with Molten Glasses Designed for Waste Vitrification - APPS1 Matrix Glasses

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2025

Corrosion Testing of Refractory inContact with Molten Glasses Designed for Waste Vitrification - VSL Touchpoint Matrix Glasses

It is known that the predictive life of the refractory ceramic liner of nuclear waste glass melters is conservative, as demonstrated by performance of these materials such as in the Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF). The motivation for this task is to maximize the useful life of the melters that will be operated at the Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP), which will in turn minimize procurement and disposal costs and melter outage times, as well as to identify maximum loadings in the waste glass of those species that corrode melter components. This task was initiated jointly with Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) with the objective to develop a methodology and model to enable more accurate prediction of refractory service life under prototypic conditions from laboratory-scale material corrosion tests. Refractory corrosion is generally reported as physical material loss, measured in units of distance (e.g., inch) or as physical material loss rate, measured in units of distance per time (e.g., inch/day). In post-operational melters, the refractory corrosion is measured directly, sometimes reported as corrosion depth. Crucible tests are used in the laboratory to accelerate the refractory corrosion to facilitate a meaningful measurement in a commensurate amount of time. Crucible tests are particularly useful in understanding refractory corrosion across a large glass composition space, where operational testing would be prohibitive. Some of the critical parameters that are known to influence refractory corrosion by molten glass in a crucible test are temperature, system redox, molten salt phases, glass chemistry, and test duration. The majority of data collected for Monofrax® K-3 (hereafter referred to as K-3) corrosion is from crucible tests, but a small amount comes directly from scaled and production melters. Crucible test data has been collected under varying conditions, whereas data collected from operational melters is relatively fewer and represents conditions specific to the melter campaign. The result is that the published data can be grouped and analyzed in multiple ways, not all of which are readily comparable. The Standard Test Method for Isothermal Corrosion Resistance of Refractories to Molten Glass (ASTM C621) outlines the general guidelines used across industry. That method describes a sealed, static test in which the surface area of the refractory coupon and the volume of glass are fixed. A significant portion of the crucible data pertaining to nuclear waste glasses has been collected in a modified configuration; the most notable differences being the surface area of the refractory coupon to volume of the glass and use of a method for bubbling the melt. To our knowledge, the influence of those parameters on the refractory corrosion has not been quantified. In this work, it was determined that static tests and bubbled tests would be performed. Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) was tasked with setting up and performing static testing while PNNL was tasked with setting up and performing bubbled testing. Initial activities were performed to establish laboratory methods that reproduce data comparable to existing data sets of K-3 refractory corrosion by low activity waste (LAW) and high-level waste (HLW) glass compositions. Later activities were focused on refining the test parameters to establish a standard test practice to be used between Laboratories and collecting additional data to be used in the enhanced waste glass model development. This document serves primarily to convey the refractory loss measurement results from corrosion testing of K-3 refractory with waste glass compositions developed for use in the WTP melters. The data will be used in the enhanced property/composition models being developed for waste glass vitrification and melter operations.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2025

Corrosion Testing of Refractory in Contact with Molten Glasses Designed for Waste Vitrification - HAL24 M1 Matrix Glasses

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗