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At least 19 records

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DOE OSTI2022

Modeling land use and land cover change: using a hindcast to estimate economic parameters in gcamland v2.0

Abstract. Future changes in land use and cover have important implications for agriculture, energy, water use, and climate. Estimates of future land use and land cover differ significantly across economic models as a result of differences in drivers, model structure, and model parameters; however, these models often rely on heuristics to determine model parameters. In this study, we demonstrate a more systematic and empirically based approach to estimating a few key parameters for an economic model of land use and land cover change, gcamland. Specifically, we generate a large set of model parameter perturbations for the selected parameters and run gcamland simulations with these parameter sets over the historical period in the United States to quantify land use and land cover, determine how well the model reproduces observations, and identify parameter combinations that best replicate observations, assuming other model parameters are fixed. We also test alternate methods for forming expectations about uncertain crop yields and prices, including adaptive, perfect, linear, and hybrid approaches. In particular, we estimate parameters for six parameters used in the formation of expectations and three of seven logit exponents for the USA only. We find that an adaptive expectation approach minimizes the error between simulated outputs and observations, with parameters that suggest that for most crops, landowners put a significant weight on previous information. Interestingly, for corn, where ethanol policies have led to a rapid growth in demand, the resulting parameters show that a larger weight is placed on more recent information. We examine the change in model parameters as the metric of model error changes, finding that the measure of model fitness affects the choice of parameter sets. Finally, we discuss how the methodology and results used in this study could be used for other regions or economic models to improve projections of future land use and land cover change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2010

Use of Land Use Land Cover Change Mapping Products in Aiding Coastal Habitat Conservation and Restoration Efforts of the Mobile Bay NEP

The Mobile Bay region has undergone significant land use land cover change (LULC) over the last 35 years, much of which is associated with urbanization. These changes have impacted the region s water quality and wildlife habitat availability. In addition, much of the region is low-lying and close to the Gulf, which makes the region vulnerable to hurricanes, climate change (e.g., sea level rise), and sometimes man-made disasters such as the Deepwater Horizon (DWH) oil spill. Land use land cover change information is needed to help coastal zone managers and planners to understand and mitigate the impacts of environmental change on the region. This presentation discusses selective results of a current NASA-funded project in which Landsat data over a 34-year period (1974-2008) is used to produce, validate, refine, and apply land use land cover change products to aid coastal habitat conservation and restoration needs of the Mobile Bay National Estuary Program (MB NEP). The project employed a user defined classification scheme to compute LULC change mapping products for the entire region, which includes the majority of Mobile and Baldwin counties. Additional LULC change products have been computed for select coastal HUC-12 sub-watersheds adjacent to either Mobile Bay or the Gulf of Mexico, as part of the MB NEP watershed profile assessments. This presentation will include results of additional analyses of LULC change for sub-watersheds that are currently high priority areas, as defined by MB NEP. Such priority sub-watersheds include those that are vulnerable to impacts from the DWH oil spill, as well as sub-watersheds undergoing urbanization. Results demonstrating the nature and permanence of LULC change trends for these higher priority sub-watersheds and results characterizing change for the entire 34-year period and at approximate 10-year intervals across this period will also be presented. Future work will include development of value-added coastal habitat quality assessment products that will be used by the MB NEP and its partners in the planning of coastal conservation and restoration activities.

Spruce, Joseph P.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Global rules for translating land-use change (LUH2) to land-cover change for CMIP6 using GLM2

Anthropogenic land-use and land-cover change activities play a critical role in Earth system dynamics through significant alterations to biogeophysical and biogeochemical properties at local to global scales. To quantify the magnitude of these impacts, climate models need consistent land-cover change time series at a global scale, based on land-use information from observations or dedicated land-use change models. However, a specific land-use change cannot be unambiguously mapped to a specific land-cover change. Here, nine translation rules are evaluated based on assumptions about the way land-use change could potentially impact land cover. Utilizing the Global Land-use Model 2 (GLM2), the model underlying the latest Land-Use Harmonization dataset (LUH2), the land-cover dynamics resulting from land-use change were simulated based on multiple alternative translation rules from 850 to 2015 globally. For each rule, the resulting forest cover, carbon density and carbon emissions were compared with independent estimates from remote sensing observations, U.N. Food and Agricultural Organization reports, and other studies. The translation rule previously suggested by the authors of the HYDE 3.2 dataset, that underlies LUH2, is consistent with the results of our examinations at global, country and grid scales. This rule recommends that for CMIP6 simulations, models should (1) completely clear vegetation in land-use changes from primary and secondary land (including both forested and non-forested) to cropland, urban land and managed pasture; (2) completely clear vegetation in land-use changes from primary forest and/or secondary forest to rangeland; (3) keep vegetation inland-use changes from primary non-forest and/or secondary non-forest to rangeland. Our analysis shows that this rule is one of three (out of nine)rules that produce comparable estimates of forest cover, vegetation carbon and emissions to independent estimates and also mitigate the anomalously high carbon emissions from land-use change observed in previous studies in the 1950s. According to the three translation rules, contemporary global forest area is estimated to be 37.42×106 km2, within the range derived from remote sensing products. Likewise, the estimated carbon stock is in close agreement with reference biomass datasets, particularly over regions with more than 50 % forest cover

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Impacts of Forest Management-Induced Productivity Changes on Future Land Use and Land Cover Change

Anthropogenic land use and land cover change (LULCC) is projected to continue in the future. However, the influence of forest management on forest productivity change and subsequent LULCC projections remains under-investigated. This study explored the impacts of forest management-induced change in forest productivity on LULCC throughout the 21st century. Specifically, we developed a framework to softly couple the Global Change Analysis Model and Global Timber Model to consider forest management-induced forest productivity change and projected future LULCC across the five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). We found future increases in forest management intensity overall drive the increase of forest productivity. The forest management-induced forest productivity change shows diverse responses across all SSPs, with a global increase from 2015 to 2100 ranging from 3.9% (SSP3) to 8.8% (SSP1). This further leads to an overall decrease in the total area with a change of land use types, with the largest decrease under SSP1 (-7.5%) and the smallest decrease under SSP3 (-0.7%) in 2100. Among land use types, considering forest management-induced change significantly reduces the expansion of managed forest and also reduces the loss of natural land in 2100 across SSPs. This suggests that ignoring forest management-induced forest productivity change underestimates the efficiency of wood production, overestimates the managed forest expansion required to meet the future demand, and consequently, potentially introduces uncertainties into relevant analyses, for example, carbon cycle and biodiversity. Thus, we advocate to better account for the impacts of forest management in future LULCC projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2012

Using Remotely Sensed Data and Watershed and Hydrodynamic Models to Evaluate the Effects of Land Cover Land Use Change on Aquatic Ecosystems in Mobile Bay, AL

Alabama coastal systems have been subjected to increasing pressure from a variety of activities including urban and rural development, shoreline modifications, industrial activities, and dredging of shipping and navigation channels. The impacts on coastal ecosystems are often observed through the use of indicator species. One such indicator species for aquatic ecosystem health is submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV). Watershed and hydrodynamic modeling has been performed to evaluate the impact of land cover land use (LCLU) change in the two counties surrounding Mobile Bay (Mobile and Baldwin) on SAV stressors and controlling factors (temperature, salinity, and sediment) in the Mobile Bay estuary. Watershed modeling using the Loading Simulation Package in C++ (LSPC) was performed for all watersheds contiguous to Mobile Bay for LCLU scenarios in 1948, 1992, 2001, and 2030. Remotely sensed Landsat-derived National Land Cover Data (NLCD) were used in the 1992 and 2001 simulations after having been reclassified to a common classification scheme. The Prescott Spatial Growth Model was used to project the 2030 LCLU scenario based on current trends. The LSPC model simulations provided output on changes in flow, temperature, and sediment for 22 discharge points into the estuary. These results were inputted in the Environmental Fluid Dynamics Computer Code (EFDC) hydrodynamic model to generate data on changes in temperature, salinity, and sediment on a grid throughout Mobile Bay and adjacent estuaries. The changes in the aquatic ecosystem were used to perform an ecological analysis to evaluate the impact on SAV habitat suitability. This is the key product benefiting the Mobile Bay coastal environmental managers that integrates the influences of temperature, salinity, and sediment due to LCLU driven flow changes with the restoration potential of SAVs. Data products and results are being integrated into NOAA s EcoWatch and Gulf of Mexico Data Atlas online systems for dissemination to coastal resource managers and stakeholders. Objective 1: Develop and utilize Land Use scenarios for Mobile and Baldwin Counties, AL as input to models to predict the affects on water properties (temperature,salinity,)for Mobile Bay through 2030. Objective 2: Evaluate the impact of land use change on seagrasses and SAV in Mobile Bay. Hypothesis: Urbanization will significantly increase surface flows and impact salinity and temperature variables that effect seagrasses and SAVs.

Al-Hamdan, Mohammad↗

NASA NTRS2012

Using Remotely Sensed Data and Watershed and Hydrodynamic Models to Evaluate the Effects of Land Cover Land Use Change on Aquatic Ecosystems in Mobile Bay, AL

Al-Hamdan, Mohammad Z.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

SERVIR: Cross-Comparison of Carbon Emission Estimates Based on Variable Land Use Land Cover Changes within SERVIR Focus Regions

Deforestation in the tropics contributes approximately one-fifth of the annual global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In an effort to reduce GHG emissions, SERVIR - a joint USAID and NASA initiative - is currently implementing the SERVIR CArbon Pilot (S-CAP) activity. By developing a comprehensive CO2 tracking system in Google Earth Engine based on both remotely sensed data and in situ observations, S-CAP aims to build capacity within the SERVIR regional hubs to improve decision making and local monitoring efforts surrounding GHG emissions. The S-CAP estimations are being completed throughout 11 pilot countries within the SERVIR regions of Asia, Africa, and the Americas to integrate partner contributions and local input into the development process. These emission estimate calculations use country-level REDD+ FREL reported values, global remotely sensed data (e.g. Global Forest Watch) and regional datasets and are completed using the IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. From the S-CAP activity thus far, country CO2 estimations had varied differences, ranging from 56% to 197% between their lowest and highest estimates. The results from this study show that CO2 emission estimates can differ greatly depending on the land cover data sets used as well as the biomass values, and how a comprehensive database is essential in understanding the full range of impacts that land cover change has in these regions. Using this ensemble approach, SERVIR hubs can better select the most appropriate datasets available for estimating emissions.

Carbon Emission↗

NASA NTRS2021

Jobos Bay Water Resources: Using Earth Observations to Analyze Shoreline Changes and Understand the Effects of Sea Level Rise in Southern Puerto Rico

Jobos Bay is located on the southern coast of Puerto Rico, which is known for intense hurricane seasons and increased seasonal storm surge. Scientists at Jobos Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve (JBNERR) are concerned that sea level rise will exacerbate coastal damage from these weather events. Using NASA Earth observations, our team analyzed coastal change, land use land cover change (LULC), mangrove forest extent, and water quality of Jobos Bay. Using Google Earth Engine, we evaluated coastal change and mangrove forest habitat within the study region by classifying NASA Earth observation imagery. We created historic LULC composite images to observe how land use changes over time and improve understanding of urbanization in the watershed. Leveraging previous water quality studies, our team compared water quality datasets generated by the Optical Reef and Coastal Area Assessment (ORCAA) tool to in situ sensors provided by JBNERR partners to understand the overall quality of water in the study area with respect to turbidity, chlorophyll-a, sea surface temperature, and colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) concentrations. We discovered that 17% of the reserve has shifted from land to water since 1997 and lost 4.85 square kilometers of mangrove habitat over the past decade. Results from this study will inform the scientists of JBNERR and community members of the regional impacts of sea level rise. Being the first comprehensive study done in the estuary in nearly a decade, this serves as a baseline for future conservation efforts and research in the estuary.

Olivia Spencer↗

DOE OSTI2025

Role of Forest Carbon Change in Shaping Future Land Use and Land Cover Change

Global change, particularly the changes in atmospheric CO 2 concentration, climatic variables, and nitrogen deposition, has been widely recognized and examined to have worldwide impacts on forest carbon. However, its influence on forest area required to meet the demand for timber and carbon storage and subsequent land use and land cover change (LULCC) is rarely studied. This study explores the role of global change-driven forest carbon change in shaping future global LULCC projections and investigates underlying drivers. We incorporated the global change impacts on forest carbon from the Canadian Land Surface Scheme Including Biogeochemical Cycles model simulations (driven by meteorological forcing projections from two Earth system models [ESMs]) into the Global Change Analysis Model, under three combinations of shared socioeconomic pathways and representative concentration pathways (SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585). Including forest carbon change decreases the projected expansion of managed forest and managed pasture, reduces the loss of unmanaged pastures and forests, and provides more cropland. The relative change in managed forest by 2100 is -4.0%, -21.7%, and -31.9%, under SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585, respectively, when forest carbon change is considered. CO 2 fertilization is the dominant driver, increasing forest vegetation and soil carbon by 37% and 4.1%, and leading to 78.6% of the total area with a change in land use types by 2100 under SSP585. In comparison, climate change reduces forest vegetation and soil carbon by -3.5% and -0.8%, influencing 23.9% of the total area with a change in land use types by 2100 under SSP585, while nitrogen deposition has minor impacts. Using meteorological forcing data from two ESMs leads to similar impacts of forest carbon change on LULCC in terms of sign and trend but different magnitudes. This study highlights the large impact of forest carbon change on shaping future LULCC dynamics and the critical role of CO 2 fertilization.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2025

Role of Forest Carbon Change in Shaping Future Land Use and Land Cover Change

Explore the source record for details and available documents.

Meng Luo↗

NASA NTRS2003

Land Use and Land Cover Change, Urban Heat Island Phenomenon, and Health Implications: A Remote Sensing Approach

Land use and land cover maps of Atlanta Metropolitan Area in Georgia were produced from Landsat MSS and TM images for 1973,1979,1983,1987,1992, and 1997, spanning a period of 25 years. Dramatic changes in land use and land cover have occurred with loss of forest and cropland to urban use. In particular, low-density urban use, which includes largely residential use, has increased by over 119% between 1973 and 1997. These land use and land cover changes have drastically altered the land surface characteristics. An analysis of Landsat images revealed an increase in surface temperature and a decline in NDVI from 1973 to 1997. These changes have forced the development of a significant urban heat island effect and an increase in ground level ozone production to such an extent, that Atlanta has violated EPA's ozone level standard in recent years. The urban heat island initiated precipitation events that were identified between 1996 and 2000 tended to occur near high-density urban areas but outside the I-285 loop that traverses around the Central Business District, i.e. not in the inner city area, but some in close proximity to the highways. The health implications were investigated by comparing the spatial patterns of volatile organic compounds (VOC) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) emissions, the two ingredients that form ozone by reacting with sunlight, with those of rates of cardiovascular and chronic lower respiratory diseases. A clear core-periphery pattern was revealed for both VOC and NOx emissions, but the spatial pattern was more random in the cases of rates of cardiovascular and chronic lower respiratory diseases. Clearly, factors other than ozone pollution were involved in explaining the rates of these diseases. Further research is therefore needed to understand the health geography and its relationship to land use and land cover change as well as urban heat island effect. This paper illustrates the usefulness of a remote sensing approach for this purpose.

Lo, C. P.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Dynamics and drivers of land use and land cover changes in Bangladesh

Abstract Bangladesh has undergone dramatic land use and land cover changes (LULCC) in recent years, but no quantitative analysis of LULCC drivers at the national scale exists so far. Here, we quantified the drivers of major LULCC in combination with biophysical and socioeconomic observations at the sub-district level. We used Landsat satellite data to interpret LULCC from 2000 to 2010 and employed a Global Surface Water Dataset to account for the influences of water seasonality. The results suggest that major LULCC in Bangladesh occur between agricultural land and waterbodies and between forest and shrubland. Exclusion of seasonal waterbodies can improve the accuracy of our LULCC results and driver analysis. Although the gross gain and loss of agricultural land are large on the local scale, the net change (gross gain minus gross loss) at a country scale is almost negligible. Climate dynamics and extreme events and changes in urban and rural households were driving the changes from forest to shrubland in the southeast region. The conversion from agricultural land to standing waterbodies in the southwest region was mainly driven by urban household dynamics, population growth, distance to cities and major roads, and precipitation dynamics. This study, which is the first effort accounting for water seasonality and quantifying biophysical and socioeconomic drivers of LULCC at the national scale, provides a perspective on overall LULCC and underlying drivers over a decadal time scale and national spatial scale and can serve as a scientific basis for developing land policies in Bangladesh.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2021

Modelled land use and land cover change emissions – a spatio-temporal comparison of different approaches

Quantifying the net carbon flux from land use and land cover changes (fLULCC) is critical for understanding the global carbon cycle and, hence, to support climate change mitigation. However, large-scale fLULCC is not directly measurable and has to be inferred from models instead, such as semi-empirical bookkeeping models and process-based dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). By definition, fLULCC estimates are not directly comparable between these two different model types. As an important example, DGVM-based fLULCC in the annual global carbon budgets is estimated under transient environmental forcing and includes the so-called loss of additional sink capacity (LASC). The LASC results from the impact of environmental changes on land carbon storage potential of managed land compared to potential vegetation and accumulates over time, which is not captured in bookkeeping models. The fLULCC from transient DGVM simulations, thus, strongly depends on the timing of land use and land cover changes mainly because LASC accumulation is cut off at the end of the simulated period. To estimate the LASC, the fLULCC from pre-industrial DGVM simulations, which is independent of changing environmental conditions, can be used. Additionally, DGVMs using constant present-day environmental forcing enable an approximation of bookkeeping estimates. Here, we analyse these three DGVM-derived fLULCC estimations (under transient, pre-industrial, and present-day forcing) for 12 models within 18 regions and quantify their differences as well as climate- and CO2-induced components and compare them to bookkeeping estimates. Averaged across the models, we find a global fLULCC (under transient conditions) of 2.0±0.6 PgC/yr for 2009–2018, of which ∼40 % are attributable to the LASC (0.8±0.3 PgC/yr). From 1850 onward, the fLULCC accumulated to 189±56 PgC with 40±15 PgC from the LASC. Around 1960, the accumulating nature of the LASC causes global transient fLULCC estimates to exceed estimates under present-day conditions, despite generally increased carbon stocks in the latter. Regional hotspots of high cumulative and annual LASC values are found in the USA, China, Brazil, equatorial Africa, and Southeast Asia, mainly due to deforestation for cropland. Distinct negative LASC estimates in Europe (early reforestation) and from 2000 onward in the Ukraine (recultivation of post-Soviet abandoned agricultural land), indicate that fLULCC estimates in these regions are lower in transient DGVM compared to bookkeeping approaches. Our study unravels the strong dependence of fLULCC estimates on the time a certain land use and land cover change event happened to occur and on the chosen time period for the forcing of environmental conditions in the underlying simulations. We argue for an approach that provides an accounting of the fLULCC that is more robust against these choices, for example by estimating a mean DGVM ensemble fLULCC and LASC for a defined reference period and homogeneous environmental changes (CO2 only).

land use and land cover change↗

DOE OSTI2021

Modelled land use and land cover change emissions – a spatio-temporal comparison of different approaches

Abstract. Quantifying the net carbon flux from land use and land cover changes (fLULCC) is critical for understanding the global carbon cycle and, hence, to support climate change mitigation. However, large-scale fLULCC is not directly measurable and has to be inferred from models instead, such as semi-empirical bookkeeping models and process-based dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). By definition, fLULCC estimates are not directly comparable between these two different model types. As an important example, DGVM-based fLULCC in the annual global carbon budgets is estimated under transient environmental forcing and includes the so-called loss of additional sink capacity (LASC). The LASC results from the impact of environmental changes on land carbon storage potential of managed land compared to potential vegetation and accumulates over time, which is not captured in bookkeeping models. The fLULCC from transient DGVM simulations, thus, strongly depends on the timing of land use and land cover changes mainly because LASC accumulation is cut off at the end of the simulated period. To estimate the LASC, the fLULCC from pre-industrial DGVM simulations, which is independent of changing environmental conditions, can be used. Additionally, DGVMs using constant present-day environmental forcing enable an approximation of bookkeeping estimates. Here, we analyse these three DGVM-derived fLULCC estimations (under transient, pre-industrial, and present-day forcing) for 12 models within 18 regions and quantify their differences as well as climate- and CO2-induced components and compare them to bookkeeping estimates. Averaged across the models, we find a global fLULCC (under transient conditions) of 2.0±0.6 PgC yr−1 for 2009–2018, of which ∼40 % are attributable to the LASC (0.8±0.3 PgC yr−1). From 1850 onward, the fLULCC accumulated to 189±56 PgC with 40±15 PgC from the LASC. Around 1960, the accumulating nature of the LASC causes global transient fLULCC estimates to exceed estimates under present-day conditions, despite generally increased carbon stocks in the latter. Regional hotspots of high cumulative and annual LASC values are found in the USA, China, Brazil, equatorial Africa, and Southeast Asia, mainly due to deforestation for cropland. Distinct negative LASC estimates in Europe (early reforestation) and from 2000 onward in the Ukraine (recultivation of post-Soviet abandoned agricultural land), indicate that fLULCC estimates in these regions are lower in transient DGVM compared to bookkeeping approaches. Our study unravels the strong dependence of fLULCC estimates on the time a certain land use and land cover change event happened to occur and on the chosen time period for the forcing of environmental conditions in the underlying simulations. We argue for an approach that provides an accounting of the fLULCC that is more robust against these choices, for example by estimating a mean DGVM ensemble fLULCC and LASC for a defined reference period and homogeneous environmental changes (CO2 only).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Janus: A Python Package for Agent-Based Modeling of Land Use and Land Cover Change

Janus is an open source Python package for agent-based modeling (ABM) of land use and land cover change (LULCC). Many ABMs of LULCC have been created across platforms, some of which are not ideal for large scale, high resolution scenarios. This model provides a simple object-oriented framework for creating ABMs specific to LULCC. The organizational philosophy of the modeling framework is to create software objects (agents) that are associated with specific and contextual attributes which are isolated from where those agents exist in the spatial setting of the model, yet provide clear linkages between the agent, their environment, and other agents in the simulation. In this way, the framework allows for assembly of LULCC ABMs with low (programmatic) overhead, making the models extensible and providing clear mechanisms for integrating them with process-oriented biophysical models. Provided with Janus is a suite of geospatial data preprocessing tools that can use arbitrary land cover products as an input. Crop choice decisions are based on potential crop prices, these can be created synthetically, or drawn from integrated human-Earth systems models such as the GCAM. Janus is publicly accessible through GitHub and provides an example dataset for testing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2009

A Landsat-Based Assessment of Mobile Bay Land Use and Land Cover Change from 1974 to 2008

The Mobile Bay region has experienced noteworthy land use and land cover (LULC) change in the latter half of the 20th century. Accompanying this change has been urban expansion and a reduction of rural land uses. Much of this LULC change has reportedly occurred since the landfall of Hurricane Frederic in 1979. The Mobile Bay region provides great economic and ecologic benefits to the Nation, including important coastal habitat for a broad diversity of fisheries and wildlife. Regional urbanization threatens the estuary s water quality and aquatic-habitat dependent biota, including commercial fisheries and avian wildlife. Coastal conservation and urban land use planners require additional information on historical LULC change to support coastal habitat restoration and resiliency management efforts. This presentation discusses results of a Gulf of Mexico Application Pilot project that was conducted in 2008 to quantify and assess LULC change from 1974 to 2008. This project was led by NASA Stennis Space Center and involved multiple Gulf of Mexico Alliance (GOMA) partners, including the Mobile Bay National Estuary Program (NEP), the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration s (NOAA s) National Coastal Data Development Center (NCDDC), and the NOAA Coastal Services Center. Nine Landsat images were employed to compute LULC products because of their availability and suitability for the application. The project also used Landsat-based national LULC products, including coastal LULC products from NOAA s Coastal Change & Analysis Program (C-CAP), available at 5-year intervals since 1995. Our study was initiated in part because C-CAP LULC products were not available to assess the region s urbanization prior to 1995 and subsequent to post Hurricane Katrina in 2006. This project assessed LULC change across the 34-year time frame and at decadal and middecadal scales. The study area included the majority of Mobile and Baldwin counties that encompass Mobile Bay. In doing so, each date of Landsat data was classified using an end-user defined modified Anderson level 1 classification scheme. LULC classifications were refined using a decision rule approach in conjunction with available C-CAP products. Individual dates of LULC classifications were validated by image interpretation of stratified random locations on raw Landsat color composite imagery in combination with higher resolution remote sensing and in-situ reference data. The results indicate that during the 34-year study period, urban areas increased from 96,688 to 150,227 acres, representing a 55.37% increase, or 1.63% per annum. Most of the identified urban expansion results from conversion of rural forest and agriculture to urban cover types. Final LULC mapping and metadata products were produced for the entire study area as well as watersheds of concern within the study area. Final project products, including LULC trend information, were incorporated into the Mobile Bay NEP State of the Bay report. Products and metadata were transferred to NOAA NCDDC to allow free online accessibility and use by GOMA partners and by the public.

Spruce, Joseph↗

NASA NTRS2004

Theorizing Land Cover and Land Use Changes: The Case of Tropical Deforestation

This article addresses land-cover and land-use dynamics from the perspective of regional science and economic geography. It first provides an account of the so-called spatially explicit model, which has emerged in recent years as a key empirical approach to the issue. The article uses this discussion as a springboard to evaluate the potential utility of von Thuenen to the discourse on land-cover and land-use change. After identifying shortcomings of current theoretical approaches to land use in mainly urban models, the article filters a discussion of deforestation through the lens of bid-rent and assesses its effectiveness in helping us comprehend the destruction of tropical forest in the Amazon basin. The article considers the adjustments that would have to be made to existing theory to make it more useful to the empirical issues.

Walker, Robert↗

DOE OSTI2023

Uncertain Spatial Pattern of Future Land Use and Land Cover Change and Its Impacts on Terrestrial Carbon Cycle Over the Arctic–Boreal Region of North America

Land use and land cover change (LULCC) represents a key process of human-Earth system interaction and has profound impacts on terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycling. As a key input for ecosystem models, future gridded LULCC data is typically spatially downscaled from regional LULCC projections by integrated assessment models, such as the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM). The uncertainty associated with the different spatial downscaling methods and its impacts on the subsequent model projections have been historically ignored and rarely examined. This study investigated this problem using two representative spatial downscaling methods and focused on their impacts on the carbon cycle over the Arctic-Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE) domain, where extensive LULCC is expected. Specifically, we used the Future Land Use Simulation model (FLUS) and the Demeter model to generate 0.25° gridded LULCC data (i.e., LULCC FLUS and LULCC Demeter , respectively) with the same input of regional LULCC projections from GCAM, under both the low (i.e., SSP126) and high (i.e., SSP585) greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The two sets of downscaled LULCC were used to drive the Community Land Model version 5 and prognostically simulate the terrestrial carbon cycle dynamics over the 21st century. The results suggest large spatial-temporal differences between LULCC FLUS and LULCC Demeter , and the spatial distributions of the needleleaf evergreen boreal tree, broadleaf deciduous boreal tree, broadleaf deciduous boreal shrub, and C3 arctic grass are particularly different under both SSP126 and SSP585. Additionally, the spatiotemporal differences are larger under SSP126 than SSP585, due to more intensive LULCC under SSP126 than SSP585 from GCAM projection. The differences in LULCC further lead to large discrepancies in the spatial patterns of projected gross primary productivity, ecosystem respiration, and net ecosystem exchange, which represent more than 79% of the contributions of future LULCC in 2100. Additionally, the difference in carbon flux under SSP126 is generally larger than those under SSP585. This study highlights the importance of considering the uncertainties induced by the spatial downscaling process in future LULCC projections and carbon cycle simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗