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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Global Carbon Budget 2025

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesise datasets and methodologies to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO 2 emissions (E FOS ) are based on energy and cement production data. Emissions from land-use change (E LUC ) are estimated by bookkeeping models based on land-use data. The global atmospheric CO 2 growth rate (G ATM ) is computed from changes in concentration measured at surface stations. The global net uptake of CO 2 by the ocean (S OCEAN ) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based fCO 2 -products. The global net uptake of CO 2 by the land (S LAND ) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. Additional lines of evidence are provided by atmospheric inversions, atmospheric oxygen measurements, ocean interior observation-based estimates, and Earth System Models. This year, we introduced corrections on the E LUC , S OCEAN and S LAND estimates. The sum of all sources and sinks results in the carbon budget imbalance (B IM ), a measure of imperfect data and incomplete understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ± 1σ. For the year 2024, E FOS increased by 1.1 % relative to 2023, with fossil emissions at 10.3 ± 0.5 GtC yr −1 (including the cement carbonation sink, 0.2 GtC yr −1 ), E LUC was 1.3 ± 0.7 GtC yr −1 , for total anthropogenic CO 2 emissions of 11.6 ± 0.9 GtC yr −1 (42.4 ± 3.2 GtCO2 yr −1 ). Also, for 2024, G ATM was 7.9 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1 (3.73 ± 0.1 ppm yr −1 ), 2.2 GtC above the 2023 growth rate. SOCEAN was 3.4 ± 0.4 GtC yr −1 and S LAND was 1.9 ± 1.1 GtC yr −1 , leaving a large negative B IM (−1.7 GtC yr −1 ), suggesting that the total sink or G ATM is strongly overestimated in 2024. The global atmospheric CO 2 concentration averaged over 2024 reached 422.8 ± 0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2025 suggest an increase in E FOS relative to 2024 of +1.0 % (0.2 % to 1.7 %) globally, and atmospheric CO 2 concentration increasing by 2.1 ppm reaching 425.6 ppm, 53 % above the pre-industrial level (around 278 ppm in 1750). Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2024, with a near-zero overall budget imbalance, although discrepancies of up to around 1 GtC yr −1 persist for the representation of annual to decadal variability in CO 2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows: (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use change emissions, (2) a low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO 2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the mean ocean sink. This living data update documents changes in methods and datasets applied to this most-recent global carbon budget as well as evolving community understanding of the global carbon cycle. The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2025 (Friedlingstein et al., 2025c).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Life cycle analysis of dedicated energy crops for fuel production in the United States

Dedicated energy crops are promising feedstocks to make biofuels including jet fuels. This study applies life cycle analysis (LCA) to estimate direct well-to-wake (WTW) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (g CO 2 e/MJ) for jet fuel derived from five energy crops-biomass sorghum, miscanthus, switchgrass, poplar, and willow-via Fischer-Tropsch-to-Jet (FTJ) and Ethanol-to-Jet (ETJ) pathways. The WTW boundary includes direct emissions from biomass production, fuel production, and fuel combustion. The R&D GREET model is expanded to conduct the LCA, using national average biomass yields and farming inputs from the 2023 Billion-Ton Study. In addition, this study estimates emissions from market-mediated effects, including induced land-use change, induced other crop (non-feedstock) production changes, and induced livestock production changes using global economic and emissions factor models. On a per-dry U.S. ton basis, cultivation and harvest emissions are lowest for willow (51,565 g CO 2 e) and highest for biomass sorghum (104,488 g CO 2 e). Per-acre results show similarly high emissions for sorghum and lowest values for poplar and willow. Direct WTW emissions are substantially lower for FTJ (biomass sorghum: 5.5; miscanthus: 10.3; switchgrass: 11.7; poplar: 11.9; and willow: 8.7 g CO 2 e/MJ) than ETJ (33.2; 33.8; 34.8; 36.2; and 31.7 g CO 2 e/MJ, respectively). When market-mediated emissions are included, miscanthus exhibits the lowest total emissions across energy crop pathways. Although results are sensitive to modeling assumptions, they indicate that high-yielding perennial and woody crops, particularly when planted on marginal land, could significantly reduce WTW emissions for bio-jet fuels by combining low direct emissions with soil carbon gains and favorable market-mediated effects.

Billion-Ton Study↗
DOE OSTI2026

Habitat Affinity of Riverine Dissolved Organic Matter Linked to Molecular Traits

Fluxes of organic matter across Earth habitats shape ecosystem function and carbon storage. Yet, it is challenging to predict howthe molecules are preferentially accumulated in specific habitats, that is, the habitat affinities, due to their diverse character-istics. Here, we develop an indicator of compositional-level habitat affinity for dissolved organic matter (DOM) by quantifyingthe aggregated affinities of individual molecules that are over- or under-represented relative to a reference habitat. Applyingthis indicator to 93 paired riverine water-sediment sites, we find that 65.1% of molecules show non-significant habitat affinitiesfor water or sediment and are thermodynamically favorable and susceptible to microbial degradation. Consistently, the habitataffinities of DOM assemblages decrease with lower molecular weights and recalcitrance for waters, and with higher thermody-namic favorability for sediments. These affinities are both reduced by elevated temperatures and anthropogenic pressures, suchas nitrogen loading and land-use change. Our projection of habitat affinities of global riverine DOM shows that regions withintense anthropogenic disturbances or warm climates, such as East Asia, Western Europe, and the Amazon, tend to exhibit loweraffinities. These findings suggest enhanced molecular homogenization between water and sediment habitats is associated withenvironmental changes and underscore the importance of habitat affinities for predicting the potential trajectories of organiccarbon across ecosystems

Cui, Yifan↗
DOE OSTI2025

Geospatial Diffusion for Land Cover Imperviousness Change Forecasting

Land-use and land-cover (LULC) has a significant effect on several Earth system processes. For example, impervious surfaces reduce infiltration and speed water flow, impacting regional hydrology and flood risk. While Earth System models have improved forecasting hydrologic and atmospheric processes at higher resolutions, the ability to forecast LULC change has lagged behind. In this paper, we propose a new paradigm exploiting Generative AI (GenAI) for land cover change forecasting by framing it as a data synthesis problem conditioned on historical and auxiliary data-sources. To demonstrate the feasibility of our methodology, we perform experiments where a diffusion model is trained for decadal forecasting of imperviousness change across the entire United States. We find that our model yields MAE lower than a no-change baseline for resolutions ≥ 0.7 X 0.7km2 on average, demonstrating its ability to capture and project accurate spatiotemporal patterns. Finally, we discuss future research to incorporate Earth's physical properties and enabling scenario simulations via driver variables.

Varshney, Debvrat [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000188981736)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Land-use and atmospheric shifts jointly amplify U.S. drought-driven crop losses

Agricultural drought (AD) poses a major threat to food security, yet its future risk remains uncertain under co-evolving atmospheric conditions and land-use trajectories. Using an integrated, multi-sector modeling framework, we project AD risks for major crops across the contiguous United States (CONUS) through 2055 under a range of plausible futures that capture thermodynamic changes and land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) trajectories. Model projections reveal that drought-driven crop production losses increase sharply by nearly 60% for corn, 250% for wheat, and 135% for soybean relative to historical levels. The primary drivers of these increases, which include atmospheric shifts and LULCC, vary by region and crop type. LULCC acting as an important risk amplifier in regions experiencing cropland expansion into drought-prone regions, such as the Great Plains and northwestern U.S. Wheat exhibits the largest projected loss increases, a result that remains robust across scenarios. These findings highlight that interactions between atmospheric conditions and land-use trajectories shape future agricultural drought risk and should be jointly considered to support effective adaptation and food-system planning.

Yao, Lili↗
DOE OSTI2025

A framework for testing soil carbon dynamics post land-use transition in a multisector dynamics model

Soil carbon plays a crucial role in the global carbon cycle. Changes in land use can determine whether carbon is stored or is emitted into the atmosphere as carbon dioxide, which has broad implications for the human and Earth systems. These feedbacks to the carbon cycle and their socio-economic drivers are modelled by many global multisector dynamics models to project future possibilities for the human-Earth system. One notable model of this class is the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), which uses a simplified process to model soil organic carbon (SOC) content after land-use transition across 384 land units. While the current GCAM soil carbon framework is based on scientific principles, it has not been tested against experimental data. This work examines rates of SOC change from GCAM input data. Specifically, first order rate constants derived from model inputs were compared to values from two syntheses to assess GCAM’s accuracy. Welch’s t-tests and linear models were used to determine if rate constants were consistent across all tested geographical areas and land-use transition types. While we found that there was general agreement on the direction and magnitude (i.e., rate) of SOC change, the rate constant derived from GCAM and empirical values differed strongly in a subset of specific instances. These results indicate that GCAM’s current SOC dynamics during land use transition successfully capture broad patterns of change in this critical carbon pool, but should be interpreted with caution at finer spatial scales. One potential cause of these discrepancies is our highly aggregated variable, soil timescale, which could be made more granular to improve accuracy. When using economically rooted multisector dynamics models, such as GCAM, it is critical to understand such model limitations for representing specific Earth system processes.

carbon↗
DOE OSTI2026

Atmospheric Gases as Quantitative Indicators of Urbanization Across Land-Use Gradients

The urban heat island (UHI) effect is a significant phenomenon characterized by higher surface temperatures in cities compared to surrounding rural areas. This change in the Earth's energy balance presents considerable challenges for urban populations, increasing heat exposure, straining energy infrastructure, and exacerbating health vulnerabilities. Quantifying UHI intensity is challenging due to blurred distinctions between urban and rural areas as land-use patterns evolve. To address this challenge, the present study builds on the framework established by Salvador et al. (2025) and investigates the use of atmospheric constituents, specifically volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and inorganic gases, as tracers of urbanization levels. A key improvement in this approach is the inclusion of a designated true rural site for comparison. Field measurements were conducted at two locations in the Southeastern United States during the summer of 2025. Inorganic gases were monitored continuously, while VOC samples were collected biweekly and analyzed using a proton transfer reaction time-of-flight mass spectrometer. The urban site exhibited elevated concentrations of anthropogenic inorganic gases, with carbon monoxide and nitrogen dioxide averaging 878 ppb and 17.99 ppb, respectively. In contrast, the rural site showed lower levels of these pollutants, 796 ppb for carbon monoxide and 12.46 ppb for nitrogen dioxide, while displaying higher concentrations of biogenic VOCs, including isoprene and monoterpenes at 1.24 ppb and 0.08 ppb, respectively. Extended mass spectral analyses revealed distinct chemical differences between the two sites, supporting the observed variability of major gases. Overall, these findings are consistent with our previous research and highlight the value of atmospheric constituents as effective indicators of urbanization, thereby improving our understanding of UHI dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

The relative importance of wind and hydroclimate drivers in modulating the interannual variability of dust emissions in Earth system models

Windblown dust emissions are controlled by near-surface wind speed and sediment erodibility, the latter modulated by hydroclimate and land-use conditions. Accurate representations of these drivers are critical for reproducing historical dust variability and projecting future dust changes in Earth system models (ESMs). This study examines the discrepancies among 21 ESMs in the relative importance of wind speed versus five hydroclimate drivers in explaining the historical (1980–2014) variability of dust emissions from global drylands. In hyperarid areas, models show poor agreement in the simulated dust variability, with only 9 % out of 210 inter-model comparisons exhibiting significant positive correlations. In contrast, arid and semiarid areas exhibit a dual pattern driven by a “double-edged sword” effect of land surface memory: models with coherent hydroclimate variability show better agreement, whereas those with divergent hydroclimate representations show larger disagreement. While the ESMs capture the dominant role of wind speed in hyperarid areas, they diverge markedly in the relative contributions of wind and hydroclimate drivers in arid and semiarid areas. Replacing the Zender et al. (2003) dust scheme with the Kok et al. (2014) scheme in CESM and E3SM generally strengthens hydroclimate influences while reducing wind speed contributions to simulated dust variability. MERRA-2 reanalysis produces stronger wind influences than most ESMs across all dryland regions. These results underscore the need for improved near-surface wind simulations in hyperarid areas and more realistic land surface and hydroclimate representations in arid and semiarid areas to reduce uncertainties in global dust emission simulations.

Li, Xinzhu [Michigan Technological University, Hou↗
DOE OSTI2026

Climate-Driven Divergence in Biophysical and Economic Impacts of Agrivoltaics

Increasing global demands for food and energy necessitate innovative land-use solutions. Agrivoltaics, colocating solar photovoltaics with agriculture, shows promise, but its widespread adoption faces complex biophysical and economic trade-offs in a changing climate. Here, we develop an integrated biophysical-economic modeling framework to quantify how agrivoltaics affect biophysical and economic impacts across the Midwestern United States under both current and project climate conditions. We find strong regional divergences driven by climate gradients. In the humid eastern Midwest, solar panel shading limits photosynthesis, leading to reduced yields (maize -24%; soybean -16%) and lower farmers' profitability (maize -16%; soybean -2%) compared to conventional agriculture. Conversely, in the semiarid western region, shading alleviates heat and water stress, moderating yield reductions for maize (-12%) and even boosting soybean yields (+6%), resulting in improved economic returns (-6% for maize; +9% for soybean), for a scenario with 33% photovoltaic ground coverage ratio. Although agrivoltaics generate substantial electrical energy across all regions, high upfront installation costs challenge solar developers compared to standalone solar photovoltaics. However, our analysis identifies “win-win” opportunities where soybean-based agrivoltaics in the semiarid region produce economic benefits for both farmers and solar developers, highlighting the necessity for region-specific designs tailored to local climate conditions. Critically, future climate projections indicate eastward expansion of semiarid conditions, broadening areas where agrivoltaics can mitigate crop yield penalties (even boosting yield) and improve overall profitability, especially under high-emission scenarios. The results provide a mechanistic and economically integrated understanding essential for developing evidence-based and region-specific strategies to scale agrivoltaics in a changing climate.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Enhancing climate-smart crop performance in arid agrivoltaics systems: effects of photovoltaic shading and soil amendments on tepary bean growth, yield, and associated soil microbiome

As climate change expands the world’s arid and semiarid regions, sustainable systems that integrate food and energy production are becoming increasingly critical. Agrivoltaics—co-locating crops with photovoltaic (PV) panels—offers a dual land-use strategy that mitigates environmental stress by shading crops, conserving soil moisture, and enhancing PV efficiency. While climate-smart crops like the tepary bean ( Phaseolus acutifolius ) are well adapted to heat and drought, little is known about how these crops and their associated soil microbiomes respond to the unique microclimates created by PV shading. This study evaluated tepary bean performance and plant–microbial interactions under PV-shade vs. no shade across three soil amendment treatments at two experimental sites. We assessed plant traits including germination, phenology, biomass, height, as well as yield and bean morphology, alongside shifts in soil microbial composition and functional potential. Plants grown under PV-shade were generally taller, with extended reproductive periods and higher yields: 42% of shaded plants produced beans compared to only 8% under full sun. Shaded plants also produced rounder, higher-quality beans, whereas non-shaded plants yielded flatter, less developed beans. Microbial community composition was more strongly influenced by amendment and site conditions than by shading alone. Key microbial taxa (e.g., Glomeromycetes, Desulfobacterota ) and predicted functions (e.g., denitrification, nitrogen-respiration, sulfate reduction) were associated with differences in plant performance. Finally, combining agrivoltaic systems with targeted soil amendments can enhance crop yield and soil microbial functionality—offering a promising strategy for sustainable agriculture in arid landscapes.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

A coupled hydrologic-agroeconomic modeling framework to evaluate adaptive irrigation strategies under groundwater withdrawal restrictions

Growing groundwater scarcity requires integrated tools to capture interactions among hydrology, agricultural production, markets, and land use. This study presents an iterative modeling framework that couples hydrologic, crop-yield, and economic models to capture two-way feedback among water availability, agricultural production, and market responses under groundwater constraints. The primary goal of this paper is to describe the methodological development of the coupled framework and demonstrate the significance of iterative model interaction. Applied to the western United States, we evaluated adaptive responses to restricting groundwater use beyond recharge levels, represented through changes in irrigation management and expansion or shrinkage of crop markets through land reallocation. Results demonstrate that the iterative coupling converges to stable equilibrium responses within 10 iterations. At equilibrium, deficit irrigation emerges as the dominant adaptation strategy in California, with irrigation levels stabilizing at approximately 70% of full irrigation demand, while Arizona and New Mexico experience stronger yield sensitivities. Early iterations produce commodity price increases of up to 10% for fruit and vegetable crops; however, these responses moderate as land allocation and production patterns adjust across regions. Deficit irrigation and spatial reallocation of irrigated land partially offset production losses, with variability observed across different states: California maintains yields primarily via deficit irrigation, whereas Arizona and New Mexico will rely mainly on reducing irrigated area to absorb the shock. By capturing feedback between biophysical and economic processes, this approach highlights how irrigation strategies and land-use decisions evolve under water stress and provides a transferable platform for evaluating water management policies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Farm Practice Typologies as a Strategy for Management-Relevant Land Use and Land Cover Mapping in the Great Lakes Region (Version 1) [Dataset]

Dataset overview and development This dataset provides spatially explicit agricultural land-use and land-management typologies developed for the Great Lakes Region (GLR) at the farm-parcel level. The typologies were designed to characterize not only the land-use and land-cover (LULC) associated with individual agricultural farm parcels, but also the land-management practices (LMPs), including irrigation, tile drainage, and conservation easements, occurring within those parcels and how these characteristics change through time. The dataset contains four related typology products: Annual integrated typology – describes the combined LULC and land-management characteristics for each farm parcel for individual years. LULC transition typology – describes the temporal pattern of LULC change for each farm parcel across the study period (2008-2023). LMP trend typology – describes the temporal pattern in the occurrence of LMPs for each farm parcel across the study period. Multi-year integrated typology – combines the LULC transition typology and LMP trend typology to provide an integrated characterization of long-term land-use and management patterns. Purpose of the dataset The purpose of these products is to provide a management-relevant integrated and consistent framework for evaluating the spatial and temporal organization of agricultural landscapes across the GLR. The resulting typologies can: support landscape-scale environmental and land-use analysis; provide spatial information relevant to land-management strategies, conservation planning, policy development, and program evaluation; characterize spatial patterns of agricultural land use and management; examine changes in agricultural landscapes through time; and identify persistent, transitional, and changing agricultural systems. Please refer to the README file provided in Files for more details.

Agriculture↗
DOE OSTI2026

CLM5 Simulations of Soil Moisture and Grain Carbon for CONUS at 0.125 degrees

This dataset provides 0.125° gridded simulations of soil moisture and crop grain carbon for the Contiguous United States (CONUS), generated using the Community Land Model version 5 (CLM5) with the biogeochemistry module enabled. The data covers a historical baseline (1980–2015) and mid-century future projections (2020–2055). Future projections are organized into two sets of scenarios to distinguish the impacts of different drivers: (1) Atmospheric Only (ATM-only): These scenarios apply future atmospheric forcings while holding land use and land cover change (LULCC) at historical baseline levels. The atmospheric forcings represent moderately versus severely hotter/drier atmospheric conditions (dynamically downscaled perturbed thermodynamics simulations based on CMIP6 SSP245 and SSP585 warming signals), each with cooler versus hotter Earth System Model temperature sensitivity instantiations. These scenarios are identified in the file names as atm45cooler, atm45hotter, atm85cooler, and atm85hotter. (2) Coupled Atmospheric and Land-Use (LAND+ATM): These scenarios apply future atmospheric forcing together with future LULCC by pairing atmospheric pathways with lower versus higher population/economic growth scenarios representing Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 3 and 5 (SSP3 and SSP5). These scenarios are identified in the file names as atm45cooler_ssp3, atm45hotter_ssp3, atm45cooler_ssp5, atm45hotter_ssp5, atm85cooler_ssp3, atm85hotter_ssp3, atm85cooler_ssp5, and atm85hotter_ssp5. Please refer to the README file for detailed information on file structure, variables, units, and data formats.

Yao, Lili [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory] ↗
DOE OSTI2026

Higher_wood_density_lowers_feedstock_cost_and_has_minimal_impact_on_biomass_conversion_to_biofuels

Poplar and other woody feedstocks have the potential to provide up to 200 million tons of biomass per year that could be converted to liquid fuels. Most forestry strategies that aim at increasing biomass productivity per hectare rely on short rotation plantations of fast-growing varieties. The improvement of wood density as a key trait itself has largely been overlooked. We evaluated natural variation in wood density across a population of genetically diversePopulus trichocarpatrees grown in a common garden. Wood density varies greatly within this population but is heritable higher wood density was not systematically associated with reduced growth, challenging assumptions of a trade-off between wood density and biomass accumulation. Furthermore, denser wood led to significant improvements throughout the supply chain, including, lowering biomass production and transportation costs. Higher density not correlate to changes in biomass composition. Density did not impact bioconversion in the two feedstock-to-fuel pipelines tested (pretreatment by ionic liquids or soaking in aqueous ammonia, and fermentation to ethanol) on a representative subset of poplars. These findings highlight wood density as a promising breeding target for accelerating the development of high-yielding, conversion-efficient bioenergy crops and as an avenue for increasing land-use efficiency and reducing biomass transportation cost. This data set contain three datasets.

CBI↗
DOE OSTI2026

Impacts of Dual-Use Solar (Agrivoltaics) on Crop Productivity and the Agricultural Economy in Massachusetts and Beyond

This project contributes applied research to better understand the impacts of agrivoltaics on farm microclimates, crop productivity, and economics at the farm and sector level. The site trial research is divided into two sets of site trials integrated into commercial farm and agrivoltaic operations – one set on annual vegetable and hay crops and one on perennial cranberry bog operations. The economic research developed methods for recording and evaluating changes in farm operations and costs, and on the public perception of and willingness-to-accept agrivoltaics.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Economic Incentives for Agrivoltaics Systems with Commodity Crops in the Midwestern United States

Declining costs of photovoltaic (PV) technology and rising market and policy incentives are leading to the growing deployment of PV on cropland in the US Midwest, leading to concerns about the displacement of food and feed crop production. Agrivoltaic (AV) technology enables the dual use of land by co-locating PV energy and crop production, potentially reducing land-use competition with crop production. We develop a benefit-cost analysis framework to compare the net economic returns from AV to those with stand-alone PV and crop production on a representative field and show conditions under which AV can be more profitable for both a solar developer and a farmer. We integrate it with a crop and solar energy model to simulate the performance of various field designs and space and height configurations in AV systems to accommodate soybean production with conventional farm equipment under representative conditions in the US Midwest. We find that an AV system with soybean production is less profitable than PV alone for a solar developer due to the high capital costs of raising panel height, and less profitable for a farmer than leasing land for PV due to its adverse effects of shading on crop yield. We discuss the changes in technology and market prices of solar energy and soybeans that are necessary to make the AV system profitable for solar developers and farmers. We show that AV can worsen rather than mitigate the conflict between food crops and solar energy production in the Midwest.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Inundation and Sediment Supply Predict Annual but Not Centennial Carbon Accumulation in Tidal Wetlands Across Land‐Use Types

Despite growing interest in the contributions of tidal wetlands to natural climate solutions, data remain scarce on how land use affects their carbon accumulation rates (CAR). Additionally, environmental factors driving the large observed variability in CAR among sites are poorly understood. To address these knowledge gaps, we measured short-term (∼1 year) and long-term (∼100 years) CAR using feldspar marker horizons, 210 Pb profiles, and surface elevation tables from 39 sites in seven estuaries in Oregon and Washington, USA. Sites varied in wetland type (tidal marsh, tidal swamp, nontidal pasture), land-use history (reference, restored, and disturbed), and salinity (fresh to polyhaline). Across both timescales, CAR was lowest in disturbed pastures and highest in restored marshes, reflecting patterns in sediment accretion rates. Short-term CAR exceeded long-term CAR by approximately 50% on average and was only weakly correlated with long-term CAR, with differences among hydrogeomorphic setting. Short-term CAR was well predicted by summer inundation frequency and relative sediment load, together explaining 60% of variance, whereas long-term CAR was poorly predicted by contemporary environmental conditions. These findings highlight the importance of aligning predictor and response timescales when modeling blue carbon dynamics, and reinforce the climate mitigation potential of tidal wetland restoration.

land use and land cover change↗
DOE OSTI2026

IAM-FIRE: a Climate Emulator–Based Framework to Project Wildfire Impacts and Risks for Integrated Assessment Models

Most Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) underrepresent dynamic feedbacks from climate-driven disturbances such as wildfires, potentially overestimating the permanence of land-based carbon sinks. In particular, representing the impacts of forest fires is becoming increasingly important, as these are expected to intensify in the coming years. We introduce IAM-FIRE (Integrated Assessment Model – Fire Impacts & Risks Emulator), a novel framework that enables the projection of wildfire burned area (BA) and carbon emissions (CE) directly from IAM outputs. IAM-FIRE combines a spatial climate emulator, land-use downscaling, vegetation productivity modelling, and an empirical fire model to generate global annual wildfire impacts for arbitrary socioeconomic and emissions scenarios at 0.5° resolution for the period 2020–2100. Calibrated against GFEDv5 observations and using inputs from the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), we report projections BA and CE derived from IAM-FIRE for four scenarios: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-6.6 and SSP5-7.6. The model reproduces historical global trends for total BA, including the observed global decline since the early 2000s, and for forest BA. Projected fire trajectories differ strongly among scenarios: total BA range from declines under SSP1-2.6 (-3.36 Mha yr-1) to increases under SSP3-6.6 (+1.6 Mha yr-1). Corresponding total CE show a similar divergence ranging from -15 to +10.6 TgC yr-1. Socioeconomic development exerts a dominant suppressing effect on wildfire impacts while climate change and CO2-driven increases in vegetation productivity amplify fire risk, particularly under high-emissions pathways. Compared with CMIP6 fire-enabled Earth System Models, IAM-FIRE exhibits greater sensitivity to radiative forcing and a stronger role for human-driven fire suppression, highlighting substantial structural uncertainties in future fire projections. By providing a computationally efficient and internally consistent approach to represent wildfire impacts within IAMs, IAM-FIRE enables systematic exploration of fire–climate–land feedbacks and supports improved assessments of mitigation permanence and climate risks in future integrated scenarios.

Rouhette, Theo↗