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Fine-scale landscape characteristics, vegetation composition, and snowmelt timing control phenological heterogeneity across low-Arctic tundra landscapes in Western Alaska
The Arctic is warming at over twice the rate of the rest of the Earth, resulting in significant changes in vegetation seasonality that regulates annual carbon, water, and energy fluxes. However, a crucial knowledge gap exists regarding the intricate interplay among climate, permafrost, and vegetation that generates high phenology variability across extensive tundra landscapes. This oversight has led to significant discrepancies in phenological patterns observed across warming experiments, long-term ecological observations, and satellite and modeling studies, undermining our ability to understand and forecast plant responses to climate change in the Arctic. To address this problem, we assessed plant phenology across three low-Arctic tundra landscapes on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska, using a combination of in-situ phenocam observations and high-resolution PlanetScope CubeSat data. We examined the patterns and drivers of phenological diversity across the landscape by (1) quantifying phenological diversity among dominant plant function types (PFTs) and (2) modeling the interrelations between plant phenology and fine-scale landscape features, such as topography, snowmelt, and vegetation. Our findings reveal that both spring and fall phenology varied significantly across Arctic PFTs, accounting for about 25%–44% and 34%–59% of the landscape-scale variation in the start of spring [SOS] and start of fall [SOF], respectively. Deciduous tall shrubs (e.g. alder and willow) had a later SOS (~7 d behind the mean of other PFTs), but completed leaf expansion (within 2 weeks) considerably faster compared to other PFTs. We modeled the landscape-scale variation in SOS and SOF using Random Forest, which showed that plant phenology can be accurately captured by a suite of variables related to vegetation composition, topographic characteristics, and snowmelt timing (variance explained: 53%–68% for SOS and 59%–82% for SOF). Notably, snowmelt timing was a crucial determinant of SOS, a factor often neglected in most spring phenology models. Our study highlights the impact of fine-scale vegetation composition, snow seasonality, and landscape features on tundra phenological heterogeneity. Improved understanding of such considerable intra-site phenological variability and associated proximate controls across extensive Arctic landscapes offers critical insights for representation of tundra phenology in process models and associated impact assessments with climate change.
Modern analogs for understanding pollen-vegetation dynamics in a Mediterranean mosaic landscape (Balearic Islands, Western Mediterranean)
This paper presents the study of modern pollen analogs from the Balearic Islands. While similar studies have been largely applied to mainland areas, research focused on modern vegetation dynamics on Mediterranean islands remains very rare. In this research, we combine vegetation surveys, pollen analysis and multivariate statistics to understand landscape composition. The main objectives of are: (1) to examine pollen-vegetation relationships in relation to environmental and land-use variables; (2) to understand modern pollen representation in a mosaic landscape structure; and (3) to propose pollen indicators that characterize the primary vegetation types from the Balearic Islands to better interpret past pollen records in Mediterranean island environments. Pollen results and Redundancy Analysis (RDA) distinguish three major groups: (a) Holm oak and box formations; (b) maquis and garrigues; and (c) anthropogenic and open habitats. Landscape form, mean decadal rainfall, mean decadal temperature, fire activity, trampling, slope percentage, wet/flooded soil, saline soil, distance to agropastoral cells, gHM index, domestic herbivory presence, agropastoral use, and soil type are the major variables explaining modern pollen assemblage variation in our research. Poaceae undiff., Plantago sp., Apiaceae undiff., Cerealia-t, and Cichorieae are highly correlated to human activities but should be interpreted cautiously when occurring in low values. Quercus ilex-t, Hypericum, and Buxus are correlated to humid locations while Pistacia, Pinus, Juniperus-t, and Olea to high mean decadal temperatures. Our study indicates how pollen analysis and multivariate analysis are powerful tools for characterizing the mosaic landscape, with special focus on the main vegetation types of the Balearic Islands.
Assessing wild bees in perennial bioenergy landscapes: effects of bioenergy crop composition, landscape configuration, and bioenergy crop area
Wild bee populations are currently under threat, which has led to recent efforts to increase pollinator habitat in North America. Simultaneously, U.S. federal energy policies are beginning to encourage perennial bioenergy cropping (PBC) systems, which have the potential to support native bees. Our objective was to explore the potentially interactive effects of crop composition, total PBC area, and PBC patches in different landscape configurations. Using a spatially-explicit modeling approach, the Lonsdorf model, we simulated the impacts of three perennial bioenergy crops (PBC: willow, switchgrass, and prairie), three scenarios with different total PBC area (11.7%, 23.5% and 28.8% of agricultural land converted to PBC) and two types of landscape configurations (PBC in clustered landscape patterns that represent realistic future configurations or in dispersed neutral landscape models) on a nest abundance index in an Illinois landscape. Our modeling results suggest that crop composition and PBC area are particularly important for bee nest abundance, whereas landscape configuration is associated with bee nest abundance at the local scale but less so at the regional scale. Moreover, strategies to enhance wild bee habitat should therefore emphasize the crop composition and amount of PBC.
Introducing perennial biomass crops into agricultural landscapes to address water quality challenges and provide other environmental services: Integrating perennial bioenergy crops into agricultural landscapes
The world is faced with a difficult multiple challenge of meeting nutritional, energy, and other basic needs, under a limited land and water budget, of between 9 and 10 billion people in the next three decades, mitigating impacts of climate change, and making agricultural production resilient. More productivity is expected from agricultural lands, but intensification of production could further impact the integrity of our finite surface water and groundwater resources. Integrating perennial bioenergy crops in agricultural lands could provide biomass for biofuel and potential improvements on the sustainability of commodity crop production. This article provides an overview of ways in which research has shown that perennial bioenergy grasses and short rotation woody crops can be incorporated into agricultural production systems with reduced indirect land use change, while increasing water quality benefits. Current challenges and opportunities as well as future directions are also highlighted.
Computational complexity of the landscape II—Cosmological considerations
We propose a new approach for multiverse analysis based on computational complexity, which leads to a new family of “computational” measure factors. By defining a cosmology as a space–time containing a vacuum with specified properties (for example small cosmological constant) together with rules for how time evolution will produce the vacuum, we can associate global time in a multiverse with clock time on a supercomputer which simulates it. We argue for a principle of “limited computational complexity” governing early universe dynamics as simulated by this supercomputer, which translates to a global measure for regulating the infinities of eternal inflation. The rules for time evolution can be thought of as a search algorithm, whose details should be constrained by a stronger principle of “minimal computational complexity”. Unlike previously studied global measures, ours avoids standard equilibrium considerations and the well-known problems of Boltzmann Brains and the youngness paradox. We also give various definitions of the computational complexity of a cosmology, and argue that there are only a few natural complexity classes.
Stratigraphic control of landscape response to base-level fall, Young Womans Creek, Pennsylvania, USA [Caprock controls on landscape response to baselevel fall constrained by nested detrital in situ 10Be, Young Womans Creek, Pennsylvania, USA]
Landscapes are thought to respond to changes in relative base level through the upstream propagation of a boundary that delineates relict from adjusting topography. However, spatially-variable rock strength can influence the topographic expression of such transient landscapes, especially in layered rocks, where strength variations can mask topographic signals expected due to changes in climate or tectonics. Here, we analyze the landscape response to base-level fall in Young Womans Creek, a 220 km 2 catchment on the Appalachian Plateau, USA underlain by gently folded Paleozoic sedimentary rocks. We measured in situ 10 Be concentrations in stream sands from 17 nested watersheds, and used a spatially-distributed model of sediment and 10 Be production to constrain a threefold increase in the rate of base-level fall propagating upstream from the catchment outlet. Using lidar topography and a nearby detailed stratigraphic section, we map the extent of continuous, blocky, resistant sandstone strata that act as a caprock overlying more easily erodible sandstones and siltstones. The caprock influences landscape response in two ways. First, it serves as a boundary between slowly eroding (11.5 m Myr –1 ), low-sloping (3–5°) areas of relict topography and lower, steeper portions of the landscape adjusting to base-level fall. Second, hillslopes supported by the overlying caprock are armored with coarse sediment and are significantly steeper (20–30°) than hillslopes where the caprock has been eroded (10°), despite having similar erosion rates (36 m Myr –1 ) and bedrock substrate. Lastly, our results illustrate how gently dipping, layered rocks engender complicated relationships between lithology, topography and erosion rate, highlighting the importance of understanding how rock material properties influence surface processes and landscape evolution.
Integrating Characteristic Arctic Vegetation in a Land Surface Model Improves Representation of Carbon Dynamics Across a Tundra Landscape: Modeling Archive
This modeling archive is in support of the Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments in the Arctic (NGEE Arctic) publication "Integrating Characteristic Arctic Vegetation in a Land Surface Model Improves Representation of Carbon Dynamics Across a Tundra Landscape", by Murphy et al. (2025). This archive contains model input files and outputs from landscape-scale simulations conducted using ELM, the land model component of the Department of Energy’s Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), at the Council NGEE Arctic field site (Council Road mile marker 71) on Alaska’s Seward Peninsula. Input data and model output from two sets of ELM simulations are provided. The first set of simulations were conducted with the two default ELM Arctic plant functional types (PFTs; broadleaf deciduous boreal shrub and a C3 grass) and the second set of simulations were conducted with a set of nine Arctic-specific PFTs including nonvascular mosses and lichens, graminoids, forbs, evergreen dwarf shrubs, three height classes of deciduous shrubs (dwarf, low, and low to tall), and deciduous alder shrubs (Sulman et al., 2021). Parameter names and major parameter changes in the Arctic-specific PFT configuration are described in Sulman et al. (2021) and archived in the Sulman et al. (2021) dataset (see below). Simulations were spatially explicit, covering an approximately 6.4X3.3 km domain at the Council site with a spatial resolution of 100 m for a total of 2,112 simulated grid cells under each ELM PFT configuration. The modeling archive contains meteorological forcing (seven *.nc files and one *.txt file), a domain definition file (one *.nc files), land surface configuration files (two *.nc files), parameter files (two *.nc files), annual ELM output files spanning 1980-2014 (68 *.nc files), and a User’s Guide (*pdf file). Additional information on the provided files is in the “Modeling Archive Contents” section of the User’s Guide. Model outputs are aggregated to the column scale (i.e. PFT-specific outputs are not provided here).
Wetness index based on landscape position and topography ($\mathrm{WILT}$): Modifying TWI to reflect landscape position
Water and land resource management planning benefits greatly from accurate prediction and understanding of the spatial distribution of wetness. The topographic wetness index (TWI) was conceived to predict relative surface wetness, and thus hydrologic responsiveness, across a watershed based on the assumption that shallow slope-parallel flow is a major driver of the movement and distribution of soil water. The index has been extensively used in modeling of landscape characteristics responsive to wetness, and some studies have shown the TWI performs well in landscapes where interflow is a dominant process. However, groundwater flow dominates the hydrology of low-slope landscapes with high subsurface conductivities, and the TWI assumptions are not likely to perform well in such environments. For groundwater dominated systems, we propose a hybrid wetness index (Wetness Index based on Landscape position and Topography, WILT) that inversely weights the upslope contributing area by the distance to the nearest surface water feature and the depth to groundwater. When explicit depth to groundwater data are not available, height above and separation from surface water features can act as surrogates for proximity to groundwater. Here, the resulting WILT map provides a more realistic spatial distribution of relative wetness across a low-slope Coastal Plain landscape as demonstrated by improved prediction of hydric soils, depth to groundwater, nitrogen and carbon concentrations in the A horizon of the soil profile, and sensitivity to DEM scale.
Construction of the landscape for multi-stable systems: Potential landscape, quasi-potential, A-type integral and beyond
Motivated by the famous Waddington’s epigenetic landscape metaphor in developmental biology, biophysicists and applied mathematicians made different proposals to construct the landscape for multi-stable complex systems. We aim to summarize and elucidate the relationships among these theories from a mathematical point of view. We systematically investigate and compare three different but closely related realizations in the recent literature: the Wang’s potential landscape theory from steady state distribution of stochastic differential equations (SDEs), the Freidlin-Wentzell quasi-potential from the large deviation theory, and the construction through SDE decomposition and A-type integral. We revisit that the quasi-potential is the zero noise limit of the potential landscape, and the potential function in the third proposal coincides with the quasi-potential. We compare the difference between local and global quasi-potential through the viewpoint of exchange of limit order for time and noise amplitude. We argue that local quasi-potentials are responsible for getting transition rates between neighboring stable states, while the global quasi-potential mainly characterizes the residence time of the states as the system reaches stationarity. The difference between these two is prominent when the transitivity property is broken. The most probable transition path by minimizing the Onsager-Machlup or Freidlin-Wentzell action functional is also discussed. As a consequence of the established connections among different proposals, we arrive at the novel result which guarantees the existence of SDE decomposition while denies its uniqueness in general cases. It is, therefore, clarified that the A-type integral is more appropriate to be applied to the decomposed SDEs rather than its primitive form as believed by previous researchers. Our results contribute to a deeper understanding of landscape theories for biological systems.
Impact of landscape design on the greenhouse gas emissions of shrub willow bioenergy buffers in a US Midwest corn-production landscape
Previous studies have evaluated the economics and ecosystem services of perennial bioenergy crops when replacing grain crops on marginal (environmentally critical and/or underproductive) lands. This study used life-cycle analysis (LCA) to investigate the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of perennial crops when grown in targeted landscape positions and their impact in reducing nitrogen leaching. Specifically, LCA was performed to evaluate the GHG emissions of growing shrub willow on marginal lands in the Indian Creek watershed in Illinois to assess the sustainability of strategically planted willow buffer strips. Willow was grown as a short-rotation woody crop with a 21-year rotation under three scenarios including a business-as-usual (BAU) field-scale production with nitrogen fertilizer application and two unfertilized subfield buffer scenarios – landscape single subfield (LSSF) or landscape multiple subfields (LMSF) – grown alongside cornfields to reduce nitrate leaching. Each scenario also considers three field sizes, 2.0, 10.1, and 40.5 ha. The average annual GHG emissions from willow production and depot transportation were 0.32–0.77 Mg-CO 2 e ha-1 with the lowest emissions for the LSSF scenario and highest for the BAU. The GHG emissions for the LSSF and BAU scenarios are independent of field size, whereas LMSF emissions increase with increasing field size, 0.41 Mg-CO 2 e ha-1 at 2.0 ha and 0.76 Mg-CO 2 e ha-1 at 40.5 ha. Emission results were most sensitive to the willow yield, followed by fertilizer application rate (BAU only), harvest fuel consumption, and transportation distance.
From Protein Design to the Energy Landscape of a Cold Unfolding Protein
Understanding protein folding is crucial for protein sciences. The conformational spaces and energy landscapes of cold (unfolded) protein states, as well as the associated transitions, are hardly explored. Furthermore, it is not known how structure relates to the cooperativity of cold transitions, if cold and heat unfolded states are thermodynamically similar, and if cold states play important roles for protein function. We created the cold unfolding 4-helix bundle DCUB1 with a de novo designed bipartite hydrophilic/hydrophobic core featuring a hydrogen bond network which extends across the bundle in order to study the relative importance of hydrophobic versus hydrophilic protein–water interactions for cold unfolding. Structural and thermodynamic characterization resulted in the discovery of a complex energy landscape for cold transitions, while the heat unfolded state is a random coil. Below ~0 °C, the core of DCUB1 disintegrates in a largely cooperative manner, while a near-native helical content is retained. The resulting cold core-unfolded state is compact and features extensive internal dynamics. Below -5 °C, two additional cold transitions are seen, that is, (i) the formation of a water-mediated, compact, and highly dynamic dimer, and (ii) the onset of cold helix unfolding decoupled from cold core unfolding. Our results suggest that cold unfolding is initiated by the intrusion of water into the hydrophilic core network and that cooperativity can be tuned by varying the number of core hydrogen bond networks. Protein design has proven to be invaluable to explore the energy landscapes of cold states and to robustly test related theories.
Molecular Level Understanding of the Free Energy Landscape in Early Stages of Metal-Organic Framework Nucleation
The assembly mechanism of hierarchical materials controlled by the choice of solvent and presence of spectator ions. In this paper, we use enhanced sampling molecular dynamics methods to investigate these effects on the configurational landscape of metal-linker interactions in the early stages of synthesis, using MIL-101(Cr) as a prototypical example. Microsecond-long well-tempered metadynamics (WTmetaD) uncover a complex free energy structural landscape, with distinct crystal (C) and non-crystal (NC) like configurations and their equilibrium population. In presence of ions (Na+, F-), we observe a complex effect on the crystallinity of secondary building units (SBUs), by encouraging/suppressing salt bridges between C configurations and consequently controlling the percentage of defects. Solvent effects are assessed by introducing N, N-dimethylformamide (DMF) instead of water, where SBU adducts are appreciably more stable and compact. These results shed light on how solvent nature and ionic strength impact the free energy of nucleation phenomena that ultimately control materials synthesis and defect formation. The work described in this publication was supported by the US Department of Energy (DOE), Office of Science, Office of Basic Energy Sciences and performed at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). The authors acknowledge the use of the UCL Legion High Performance Computing Facility (Legion @ UCL) and associated support services in the completion of this work. This research used resources of the National Energy Research Scientific Computing Centre, a DOE Office of Science User Facility. Battelle operates PNNL for DOE under Contract DE-AC05-76RL01830.
Influence of landscape heterogeneity on water available to tropical forests in an Amazonian catchment and implications for modeling drought response: Water Available to Tropical Forest
The Amazon basin experienced periodic droughts in the past, and climate models projected more intense and frequent droughts in the future. How tropical forests respond to drought may depend on water availability, which is modulated by landscape heterogeneity. Using the one-dimensional ACME Land Model (ALM) and the three-dimensional ParFlow variably saturated flow model, a series of numerical experiments were performed for the Asu catchment in central Amazon to elucidate processes that influence water available for plant use and provide insights for improving Earth system models. Results from ParFlow show that topography has a dominant influence on groundwater table and runoff through lateral flow. Without any representations of lateral processes, ALM simulates very different seasonal variations in groundwater table and runoff compared to ParFlow even if it is able to reproduce the long-term spatial average groundwater table of ParFlow through simple parameter calibration. In the ParFlow simulations, the groundwater table is evidently deeper and the soil saturation is lower in the plateau compared to the valley. However, even in the plateau during the dry season in the drought year of 2005, plant transpiration is not water stressed in the ParFlow simulations as the soil saturation is still sufficient to maintain a soil matric potential for the stomata to be fully open. This finding is insensitive to uncertainty in atmospheric forcing and soil parameters, but the empirical wilting formulation used in the models is an important factor that should be addressed using observations and modeling of coupled plant hydraulics-soil hydrology processes in future studies.
Microbial diversity in an intensively managed landscape is structured by landscape connectivity
Intensively managed land increases the rate of nutrient and particle transport within a basin, but the impact of these changes on microbial community assembly patterns at the basin scale is not yet understood. The objective of this study was to investigate how landscape connectivity and dispersal impacts microbial diversity in an agricultural-dominated watershed. We characterized soil, sediment and water microbial communities along the Upper Sangamon River basin in Illinois-a 3600 km 2 watershed strongly influenced by human activity, especially landscape modification and extensive fertilization for agriculture. We employed statistical and network analyses to reveal the microbial community structure and interactions in the critical zone (water, soil and sediment media). Using a Bayesian source tracking approach, we predicted microbial community connectivity within and between the environments. We identified strong connectivity within environments (up to 85.4 ± 13.3% of sequences in downstream water samples sourced from upstream samples, and 44.7 ± 26.6% in soil and sediment samples), but negligible connectivity across environments, which indicates that microbial dispersal was successful within but not between environments. Species sorting based on sample media type and environmental parameters was the dominant driver of community dissimilarity. Lastly, we constructed operational taxonomic unit association networks for each environment and identified a number of co-occurrence relationships that were shared between habitats, suggesting that these are likely to be ecologically significant.
Combined Force-Frequency Sampling for Simulation of Systems Having Rugged Free Energy Landscapes.
An adaptive, machine learning-based sampling method is presented for simulation of systems having rugged, multidimensional free energy landscapes. The method's main strength resides in its ability to learn both from the frequency of visits to distinct states and the generalized force estimates that arise in a system as it evolves in phase space. This is accomplished by introducing a self-integrating artificial neural network, which generates an estimate of the free energy directly from its derivatives. The usefulness of the proposed combined approach is examined in the context of two concrete examples, namely, an alanine dipeptide molecule in water and a polymer diffusing through a narrow pore. This new method is found to be robust, faster, and more accurate than approaches that rely only on frequency-based or generalized force-based estimations. After combining the proposed approach with overfill protection and support for sparse data storage and training, the method is shown to be more effective than comparable, previously available techniques and capable of scaling efficiently to larger numbers of collective variables.
Free-Energy Landscape of the Dissolution of Gibbsite at High pH
The individual elementary reactions involved in the dissolution of a solid into solution remain mostly speculative due to a lack of direct experimental probes. In this regard, in this paper we have applied atomistic simulations to map the free-energy landscape of the dissolution of gibbsite from a step edge as a model of metal hydroxide dissolution. The overall reaction combines kink formation and kink propagation. Two individual reactions were found to be rate-limiting for kink formation, that is, the displacement of Al from a step site to a ledge adatom site and its detachment from ledge/terrace adatom sites into the solution. Finally, as a result, a pool of mobile and labile adsorbed species, or adatoms, exists before the release of Al into solution. Because of the quasi-hexagonal symmetry of gibbsite, kink site propagation can occur in multiple directions. Overall, our results will enable the development of microscopic mechanistic models of metal oxide dissolution.
Bootstrap and amplitudes: a hike in the landscape of quantum field theory
This article is an introduction to two currently very active research programs, the Conformal Bootstrap and Scattering Amplitudes. Rather than attempting full surveys, the emphasis is on common ideas and methods shared by these two seemingly very different programs. In both fields, mathematical and physical constraints are placed directly on the physical observables in order to explore the landscape of possible consistent quantum field theories. We give explicit examples from both programs: the reader can expect to encounter boiling water, ferromagnets, pion scattering, and emergent symmetries on this journey into the landscape of local relativistic quantum field theories. Here, the first part is written for a general physics audience. The second part includes further details, including a new on-shell bottom-up reconstruction of the CP 1 model with the Fubini-Study metric arising from re-summation of the n-point interaction terms derived from amplitudes.