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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Large Deviations Anomaly Detection (LAD) for collection of multivariate time series data: Applications to COVID-19 data

Time series anomaly detection is frequently used to identify extreme behaviors within a single time series. Identifying extreme trends in relation to a collection of other time series, on the other hand, is frequently of significant interest, such as in public health policy, social justice, and pandemic propagation. Using concepts from large deviations theory , we propose an algorithm that can scale to large collections of time series data. This paper expands on the LAD algorithm presented in Guggilam et al. (2022). The proposed algorithm is an online anomaly detection method for identifying anomalies in a collection of multivariate time series that takes advantage of the algorithm’s ability to scale to high-dimensional data. We show how the proposed Large Deviations Anomaly Detection (LAD) algorithm can be used to identify regions with anomalous trends in COVID-19 cases, deaths, biweekly growth rates, vaccinations, and fatality rates. Several of the observed anomalous trends are associated with regions that have demonstrated poor response to the COVID pandemic.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Large deviations of ionic currents in dilute electrolytes

Here, we evaluate the exponentially rare fluctuations of the ionic current for a dilute electrolyte by means of macroscopic fluctuation theory. We consider the fluctuating hydrodynamics of a fluid electrolyte described by a stochastic Poisson–Nernst–Planck equation. We derive the Euler–Lagrange equations that dictate the optimal concentration profiles of ions conditioned on exhibiting a given current, whose form determines the likelihood of that current in the long-time limit. For a symmetric electrolyte under small applied voltages, number density fluctuations are small, and ionic current fluctuations are Gaussian with a variance determined by the Nernst–Einstein conductivity. Under large applied potentials, the ionic current distribution is generically non-Gaussian. Its structure is constrained thermodynamically by Gallavotti–Cohen symmetry and the thermodynamic uncertainty principle.

Farhadi, Jafar [University of California, Berkeley↗
DOE OSTI2023

Large Angle Deviation in Grid-Following IBRs Upon Grid Voltage Dip

In the 2021 Texas Odessa large-scale solar PV tripping events, phase-locked-loop (PLL) loss of synchronism is identified as a major cause of solar PV tripping. When solar PVs detected a large phase angle deviation (e.g., 10 degrees), tripping commands were initiated. Here, the large phase angle deviation was triggered by a transmission line fault 200 miles away, which in turn led to approximately 30% voltage drop in the 345-kV system. This paper offers a plausible reason why grid-following inverter-based resources (IBRs) may experience a large angle deviation upon grid voltage dip. Critical operating conditions contributing to such phenomena are identified via analysis and their effects are demonstrated using electromagnetic transient (EMT) simulation. Furthermore, the effect of converter control, e.g., grid-following control vs. grid-forming control, is examined. It is found from EMT simulation results that frequency and voltage control are helpful in mitigating angle deviation. Furthermore, linear block diagrams are derived to examine why frequency control can effectively suppress large angle deviation.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1992

deltaT/T limits from the UCSB South Pole degree-scale experiment and constraints on the large-scale deviations from the Hubble flow

The limits to the cosmic microwave background radiation (CBR) temperature anisotropy derived from the results of the University of California at Santa Barbara South Pole degree-scale experiment are translated into upper bounds on large-scale deviations from the Hubble flow. The lack of measurable CBR anisotropy in this experiment implies very low upper bounds upon the rms amplitude V(R) of the streaming motion within a Gaussian window of radius R: Vmax(R is greater than 4000 km/s) less than 200 km/s, and Vmax(R is greater than 7500 km/s) is less than 100 km/s. Thus, the smoothness of the CBR at about 1-2 deg and the apparent large-amplitude (about 500 km/s) deviations from pure Hubble flow at R greater than about 4000 km/s cannot be simultaneously explained in the framework of usual large-scale structure formation models based on the assumptions involved in this calculation.

Gorski, Krzysztof M.↗
NASA NTRS2021

An Investigation on Seasonal and Diurnal Cycles of TOA Shortwave Radiations from DSCOVR/EPIC, CERES, MERRA-2, and ERA5

Reflected shortwave (SW) solar radiations at the top of atmosphere from Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES), Modern Era-Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA-2), and ECMWF Reanalysis 5th Generation (ERA5) are examined to better under-stand their differences in spatial and temporal variations (seasonal and diurnal cycle time-scale) with respect to the observations from the Earth Polychromatic Imaging Camera (EPIC) on Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) satellite. Comparisons between two reanalyses (MERRA-2 and ERA5) and EPIC reveal that MERRA-2 has a generally larger deviation from EPIC than ERA5, in terms of the SW radiance and diurnal variability in all seasons, which can be attributed to larger cloud biases in MERRA-2. MERRA-2 produces more ice/liquid water content than ERA5 over the tropical warm pool, leading to positive SW biases in cloud and radiance, while both reanalyses underestimate the observed SW radiance from EPIC in the stratus-topped region off the western coast of US/Mexico in the boreal summer. Himalaya/Tibet region in the boreal spring/summer and the midlatitude Southern Hemisphere in the boreal winter are the regions where MERRA-2 and ERA5 deviate largely from EPIC but their deviations have the opposite sign. Vertical structures of cloud ice/liquid water content explain reasonably well these contrasting differences between the two reanalyses. As two independent observa-ions, CERES and EPIC agree well with each other in terms of the SW radiance maps, showing 2-3% mean absolute errors over the tropical-midlatitudes. The CERES-EPIC consistency further confirms that the reanalyses still have challenges in representing the SW flux and its global distribution. In the CERES-EPIC observation differences, CERES slightly overestimates the diurnal cycle (as a function of local solar time) of the observed EPIC irradiance in the morning and underestimates in the after-noon, while the opposite is the case in the reanalyses.

Reflected shortwave radiance↗
NASA NTRS1979

Stellar atmosphere in statistical equilibrium

A static atmosphere with only Lyman continuum radiation in radiative equilibrium is studied for the effects of radiative and collisional ionization on deviations from local thermodynamic equilibrium (LTE). Large increases and decreases of the kinetic temperature (range in T of about factor 2) and, correspondingly, very large over- and underpopulation of the bound state (range in b of about factor 1,000,000) are found, depending on the frequency dependence of the photoionization cross section. Despite these large deviations from LTE, which strongly modify the emergent spectrum, there is almost no effect on the particle densities, the degree of ionization, and the basic structure of the atmosphere.

Kalkofen, W.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Incorporating Active Runway Crossings in Airport Departure Scheduling

A mixed integer linear program is presented for deterministically scheduling departure and ar rival aircraft at airport runways. This method addresses different schemes of managing the departure queuing area by treating it as first-in-first-out queues or as a simple par king area where any available aircraft can take-off ir respective of its relative sequence with others. In addition, this method explicitly considers separation criteria between successive aircraft and also incorporates an optional prioritization scheme using time windows. Multiple objectives pertaining to throughput and system delay are used independently. Results indicate improvement over a basic first-come-first-serve rule in both system delay and throughput. Minimizing system delay results in small deviations from optimal throughput, whereas minimizing throughput results in large deviations in system delay. Enhancements for computational efficiency are also presented in the form of reformulating certain constraints and defining additional inequalities for better bounds.

Gupta, Gautam↗
NASA NTRS1982

The stochastic variability of asteroidal regolith depths

Modeling the depth of regolith on asteroids is approached from a statistical point of view. It is demonstrated that average values are not good descriptors of regolith depth on asteroids. Large deviations from the average can be expected to occur due to both large variations in depth over the surface of a body and to the fact that each asteroid has a unique regolith. The utility of the average depth is not significantly increased by excluding the parts of a surface which are occupied by large craters; a procedure adopted in existing regolith models. Although an asteroid's surface may be 'smoothed out' by movement of debris into gravitationally low spots, the regolith depth retains its variability because of variations in topography at the bottom of the regolith layer. The large variability associated with regolith depth severely limits the power of regolith models in predicting parent body size for the brecciated meteorites.

Housen, K. R.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Speed of Sound Measurements of R-1130(E) and an Azeotropic Blend of R-1336mzz(Z)/1130(E)

Sound speed data measured using a dual-path pulse-echo instrument are reported for pure trans-1,2-dichloroethene (R-1130(E)) and an azeotropic blend of cis-1,1,1,4,4,4-hexafluorobutene (R-1336mzz(Z)) and R-1130(E) with a composition of 74.8 mass % R-1336mzz(Z) with the balance being R-1130(E). The azeotropic blend of R-1336mzz(Z)/1130(E) is classified as R-514A in ANSI/ASHRAE standard 34. Liquid phase speed of sound data are reported from just above the saturation pressure of pure R-1130(E) or the bubble point pressure of R-514A to a maximum pressure of 26.7 MPa. The relative combined expanded uncertainty in the speed of sound varies from 0.032 % to 0.148 % with the greatest deviations occurring at the lowest sound speeds. At present, no reference Helmholtz-energy-explicit equation of state (EOS) is available for R-1130(E). Therefore, the reported data for pure R-1130(E) are compared to an extended corresponding states (ECS) model. Deviations between the pure R-1130(E) sound speed data and the ECS model were found to be consistently negative ranging between − 4.1 % and − 3.5 %. The R-514A data are compared to a multifluid model inclusive of the established reference Helmholtz-energy-explicit EOS for R-1336mzz(Z) and ECS model for R-1130(E) with estimated binary interaction parameters. Deviations between the experimental speed of sound data and the multifluid model were also found to be consistently negative. However, deviations from the multifluid model were found to be as great as − 17.1 %. The large deviations from the ECS model and multifluid model underscore the need for a robust Helmholtz-energy-explicit EOS for R-1130(E).

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Computational Assessment of the Opening Mode Facesheet-to-Core Fracture Toughness of a Thin-Gage Facesheet Sandwich Structure

The single-cantilevered beam test (SCB) is currently being considered for standardization for measuring the opening mode fracture toughness of sandwich structures subjected to facesheet-to-core separation. At present, the Area method is considered the benchmark method for determining energy required to propagate the crack. This method is problematic since it requires periodic unloading and cannot be evaluated instantaneously. Therefore, a method is needed to accurately and instantaneously calculate opening mode fracture toughness. In previous work, SCB tests with thin-gauge facesheets were performed to compare the J-integral approach to data reduction methods including the Modified Beam Theory (MBT) and the Area method. Large deviations (over 10%) in the calculated fracture toughness were observed between the J-integral and MBT for large displacements. In this study, a simulated SCB experiment using a virtual crackclosure technique was performed to assess the previously observed discrepancies. The predicted load displacement response, the predicted angle at the load application point, and the predicted crack growth results are in good agreement (within 5%) with the corresponding experimental data. Using the predicted load and angles, the predicted J-integral is in good agreement (within 10%) with the experimentally obtained solution. Using the MBT approach, the previously observed deviations in the fracture toughness were determined to be associated with the empirical extrapolation procedure to estimate the crack-root rotation correction from nonlinear compliance curves. The nonlinear compliance is determined to be associated with large displacement effects observed within the predicted and experimental results.

Sandwich Composite↗
NASA NTRS1993

Experimental and numerical study of a turbulent boundary layer with pressure gradients

Results are presented of an experimental and numerical study of a turbulent boundary layer with pressure gradients conducted using the recent 'fringe method' with its numerical advantages and good inflow quality. After an inflow transient good agreement is observed; the differences, of up to 13 percent, are discussed. Moderate deviations from the law of the wall are found in the velocity profiles of the simulation. They are fully correlated with the pressure gradient, are in fair quantitative agreement with the experimental results of Nagano et al. (1992), and are roughly the opposite of uncorrected mixing-length-model predictions. Large deviations from the wall scaling are observed for other quantities, notably for the turbulence dissipation rate. The a(1) structure parameter drops mildly in the upper layer with adverse pressure gradient.

Spalart, Philippe R.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Long-term Ozone Changes and Associated Climate Impacts in CMIP5 Simulations

Ozone changes and associated climate impacts in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations are analyzed over the historical (1960-2005) and future (2006-2100) period under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). In contrast to CMIP3, where half of the models prescribed constant stratospheric ozone, CMIP5 models all consider past ozone depletion and future ozone recovery. Multimodel mean climatologies and long-term changes in total and tropospheric column ozone calculated from CMIP5 models with either interactive or prescribed ozone are in reasonable agreement with observations. However, some large deviations from observations exist for individual models with interactive chemistry, and these models are excluded in the projections. Stratospheric ozone projections forced with a single halogen, but four greenhouse gas (GHG) scenarios show largest differences in the northern midlatitudes and in the Arctic in spring (approximately 20 and 40 Dobson units (DU) by 2100, respectively). By 2050, these differences are much smaller and negligible over Antarctica in austral spring. Differences in future tropospheric column ozone are mainly caused by differences in methane concentrations and stratospheric input, leading to approximately 10DU increases compared to 2000 in RCP 8.5. Large variations in stratospheric ozone particularly in CMIP5 models with interactive chemistry drive correspondingly large variations in lower stratospheric temperature trends. The results also illustrate that future Southern Hemisphere summertime circulation changes are controlled by both the ozone recovery rate and the rate of GHG increases, emphasizing the importance of simulating and taking into account ozone forcings when examining future climate projections.

tropospheric ozone↗
NASA NTRS1993

Calibration of a calorimeter for measuring the performance of thermal control surfaces

The calibration to evaluate the heat leak in terms of the deviation from a perfect calorimeter is described. A thermal vacuum test was carried out to characterize the performance of the calorimeter. The calorimeter was equipped with a heater to control the sample disc temperature and with specific instrumentation to measure the heat leak. The radiation sink temperature of the black cavity target was varied from -192 to +31C, while the heater power was varied from 0 to 311 milliwatts. A steady state thermal model was developed to correlate the results. The calorimeter performance was characterized in terms of the heat leak as a percentage of the ideal heat flow of the calorimeter disc. Large deviations from ideal performance occur at low sink temperatures. The effect of the use of the heater is discussed. The effects of transient conditions during low Earth orbit are discussed. It is concluded that heat leak calibrations are necessary for a wide range of conditions.

Houseman, John↗
NASA NTRS2001

Coriolis-force-induced trajectory and endpoint deviations in the reaching movements of labyrinthine-defective subjects

When reaching movements are made during passive constant velocity body rotation, inertial Coriolis accelerations are generated that displace both movement paths and endpoints in their direction. These findings directly contradict equilibrium point theories of movement control. However, it has been argued that these movement errors relate to subjects sensing their body rotation through continuing vestibular activity and making corrective movements. In the present study, we evaluated the reaching movements of five labyrinthine-defective subjects (lacking both semicircular canal and otolith function) who cannot sense passive body rotation in the dark and five age-matched, normal control subjects. Each pointed 40 times in complete darkness to the location of a just extinguished visual target before, during, and after constant velocity rotation at 10 rpm in the center of a fully enclosed slow rotation room. All subjects, including the normal controls, always felt completely stationary when making their movements. During rotation, both groups initially showed large deviations of their movement paths and endpoints in the direction of the transient Coriolis forces generated by their movements. With additional per-rotation movements, both groups showed complete adaptation of movement curvature (restoration of straight-line reaches) during rotation. The labyrinthine-defective subjects, however, failed to regain fully accurate movement endpoints after 40 reaches, unlike the control subjects who did so within 11 reaches. Postrotation, both groups' movements initially had mirror image curvatures to their initial per-rotation reaches; the endpoint aftereffects were significantly different from prerotation baseline for the control subjects but not for the labyrinthine-defective subjects reflecting the smaller amount of endpoint adaptation they achieved during rotation. The labyrinthine-defective subjects' movements had significantly lower peak velocity, higher peak elevation, lower terminal velocity, and a more vertical touchdown than those of the control subjects. Thus the way their reaches terminated denied them the somatosensory contact cues necessary for full endpoint adaptation. These findings fully contradict equilibrium point theories of movement control. They emphasize the importance of contact cues in adaptive movement control and indicate that movement errors generated by Coriolis perturbations of limb movements reveal characteristics of motor planning and adaptation in both healthy and clinical populations.

NASA Discipline Neuroscience↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evidence of Mixed Scaling for Mean Profile Similarity in the Stable Atmospheric Surface Layer

A new mixed scaling parameter Z = z/(Lh)1/2 is proposed for similarity in the stable atmospheric surface layer, where z is the height, L is the Obukhov length, and h is the boundary layer depth. In comparison with the parameter ζ = z/L from Monin–Obukhov similarity theory (MOST), the new parameter Z leads to improved mean profile similarity for wind speed and air temperature in large-eddy simulations. It also yields the same linear similarity relation for CASES-99 field measurements, including in the strongly stable (but still turbulent) regime where large deviations from MOST are observed. Results further suggest that similarity for turbulent energy dissipation rate depends on both Z and ζ. The proposed mixed scaling of Z and relevance of h can be explained by physical arguments related to the limit of z-less stratification that is reached asymptotically above the surface layer. The presented evidence and fitted similarity relations are promising, but the results and arguments are limited to a small sample of idealized stationary stable boundary layers. Here, corroboration is needed from independent datasets and analyses, including for complex and transient conditions not tested here.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2014

Trajectory Prediction Accuracy and Error Sources for Regional Jet Descents: Results of a 2010 Flight Trial at Denver International Airport using SkyWest Revenue Flights - Part II

The Efficient Descent Advisor (EDA) controller automation tool generates trajectory-based speed, path, and altitude-profile advisories to facilitate efficient, continuous descents into congested terminal airspace. While prior field trials have assessed the trajectory prediction accuracy for large jet (i.e., Boeing and Airbus) types, smaller (i.e., regional and business) jet types present unique challenges involving different descent procedures and Flight Management System (FMS) capabilities. This paper quantifies the trajectory prediction accuracy for small jet revenue flight descents based on SkyWest Canadair Regional Jet 200, 700, and 900 aircraft arrivals to Denver in the fall of 2010. Post flight test data analysis and SkyWest pilot interviews uncovered unexpected variation between flight crews due to different interpretations of (1) which fixed flight path angle (FPA) to fly based on the flight trial procedure and (2) how to fly the descent to achieve the target FPA. Pilot reports were used to select a subset of flights where pilots indicated an FPA according to the flight trial procedure to remove the unexpected variation due to (1) to focus on (2). Results for the subset for en-route descents, from prior to top of descent to the meter fix 30 to 130 nmi downstream, indicate that aircraft arrived to the meter fix six seconds early with about a twelve second standard deviation. Large FPA errors up to one degree relative to the EDA flight trial procedure were detected after the flight trial as a characteristic of the unexpected variation. It is recommended that quantitative validation be performed during future flight trials so that experimental procedures can be adjusted if unexpected results are detected.

Field Test Results↗
DOE OSTI2024

Complete resolution across the neodymium/samarium isotopic envelope with a liquid sampling‐atmospheric pressure glow discharge — Orbitrap mass spectrometer

Rationale Nd and Sm isotope ratios play an important role in geological dating and as nuclear forensic signatures; however, the overlap of the respective 144, 148, 150 Nd/Sm isobars requires prior separations to be performed before analysis on typical MS platforms. The work presented here overcomes these isobaric interferences using ultrahigh‐mass resolution to alleviate interference without prior chemical separations. Methods A liquid sampling‐atmospheric pressure glow discharge ion source was coupled to a standard, QExactive Focus Orbitrap mass spectrometer, providing a mass resolution of ~80 k. A Spectroswiss FTMS booster X2 data acquisition package was used to collect extended transients, providing much higher mass resolution; ~230 k and ~600 k are employed here for Nd and Sm isotopes. Results While the standard Orbitrap resolution is far greater than typical “atomic” MS platforms, it was insufficient to alleviate all isobars. The use of a resolution of ~230 k resulted in baseline separation across the entire isotopic envelope for both Nd and Sm. Isotope ratios obtained from Nd:Sm mixtures using high‐resolution were equivalent to those found for individual‐element solutions, while isotope ratios obtained at a resolution of ~80 k (standard for the OEM data system) showed large deviations. Conclusions Use of ultrahigh‐resolution is an attractive alternative to extensive chemical separations to alleviate severe isobaric interferences. Sufficient mass resolution greatly reduces/eliminates the need for sample manipulations (separations) before analysis while reducing costs and total analysis times.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗