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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1990

A search for long-term periodicities in large earthquakes of southern and coastal central California

It has been occasionally suggested that large earthquakes may follow the 8.85-year and 18.6-year lunar-solar tidal cycles and possibly the approximately 11-year solar activity cycle. From a new study of earthquakes with magnitudes greater than 5.5 in southern and coastal central California during the years 1855-1983, it is concluded that, at least in this selected area of the world, no statistically significant long-term periodicities in earthquake frequency occur. The sample size used is about twice that used in comparable earlier studies of this region, which concentrated on large earthquakes.

Stothers, Richard B.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Why large earthquakes do not nucleate at shallow depths

Spontaneous rupture models were examined to determine if gradients of average stress-drop and average strength relative to ambient stress account for earthquake nucleation near the base of the seismogenic layer. The frictional strength has been proved to increase with normal stress, which (across a fault) increases with depth in concert with the frictional strength. It is assumed that the large earthquakes occur at a time when the applied stress is equal to the frictional strength. A gradient has been found in frictional strength relative to the ambient stress and the stress-drop with depth. Attention is given to two cases where a circular crack appears, and radiates outward. It is shown that nucleation in the lower part of the seismogenic region will permit growth into a large earthquake, while nucleation in the lower stress-drop regime will encapsulate the crack. It is concluded that only cracks propagating in a high stress-drop regime can move easily into a relatively lower strength region.

Das, S.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Real-Time Fault Tracking and Ground Motion Prediction for Large Earthquakes With HR-GNSS and Deep Learning

Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems aim to forecast the shaking intensity rapidly after an earthquake occurs and send warnings to affected areas before the onset of strong shaking. The system relies on rapid and accurate estimation of earthquake source parameters. However, it is known that source estimation for large ruptures in real-time is challenging, and it often leads to magnitude underestimation. In a previous study, we showed that machine learning, HR-GNSS, and realistic rupture synthetics can be used to reliably predict earthquake magnitude. This model, called Machine-Learning Assessed Rapid Geodetic Earthquake model (M-LARGE), can rapidly forecast large earthquake magnitudes with an accuracy of 99%. Here, we expand M-LARGE to predict centroid location and fault size, enabling the construction of the fault rupture extent for forecasting shaking intensity using existing ground motion models. We test our model in the Chilean Subduction Zone with thousands of simulated and five real large earthquakes. The result achieves an average warning time of 40.5 s for shaking intensity MMI4+, surpassing the 34 s obtained by a similar GNSS EEW model. Our approach addresses a critical gap in existing EEW systems for large earthquakes by demonstrating real-time fault tracking feasibility without saturation issues. This capability leads to timely and accurate ground motion forecasts and can support other methods, enhancing the overall effectiveness of EEW systems. Additionally, the ability to predict source parameters for real Chilean earthquakes implies that synthetic data, governed by our understanding of earthquake scaling, is consistent with the actual rupture processes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1993

Low-frequency source parameters of twelve large earthquakes

A global survey of the low-frequency (1-21 mHz) source characteristics of large events are studied. We are particularly interested in events unusually enriched in low-frequency and in events with a short-term precursor. We model the source time function of 12 large earthquakes using teleseismic data at low frequency. For each event we retrieve the source amplitude spectrum in the frequency range between 1 and 21 mHz with the Silver and Jordan method and the phase-shift spectrum in the frequency range between 1 and 11 mHz with the Riedesel and Jordan method. We then model the source time function by fitting the two spectra. Two of these events, the 1980 Irpinia, Italy, and the 1983 Akita-Oki, Japan, are shallow-depth complex events that took place on multiple faults. In both cases the source time function has a length of about 100 seconds. By comparison Westaway and Jackson find 45 seconds for the Irpinia event and Houston and Kanamori about 50 seconds for the Akita-Oki earthquake. The three deep events and four of the seven intermediate-depth events are fast rupturing earthquakes. A single pulse is sufficient to model the source spectra in the frequency range of our interest. Two other intermediate-depth events have slower rupturing processes, characterized by a continuous energy release lasting for about 40 seconds. The last event is the intermediate-depth 1983 Peru-Ecuador earthquake. It was first recognized as a precursive event by Jordan. We model it with a smooth rupturing process starting about 2 minutes before the high frequency origin time superimposed to an impulsive source.

Harabaglia, Paolo↗
DOE OSTI2026

Improved Regional Moment Tensor Inversion for Moderately Large Earthquakes in the Western United States Using a 3D Earth Model Based on Full Waveform Tomography

The nature of seismic sources for moderately large (moment magnitude, M w 5.0–6.5) events are commonly characterized by their moment tensor (MT) solutions and obtained by inversion of regional distance (200–1600 km) long‐period (20–50 s) waveforms. Regional MT estimates are often calculated from average plane‐layered, one‐dimensional (1D) velocity models. However, 1D model calculations can produce misfits in the arrival times and waveform shapes that introduce errors, particularly at longer distances or for shorter periods, which are necessary for analyzing lower magnitude events. Approximate Earth models (e.g., 1D) representing broad areas may be inadequate, particularly in the crust and uppermost mantle of tectonically complex regions. In this study, we show how a three‐dimensional (3D) Earth model obtained from full waveform inversion tomography can improve waveform fits and decrease phase errors. We developed a platform and workflow to perform routine 3D MT inversions and inverted MTs for 25 earthquakes in the western United States and seven nuclear explosions using an average 1D and a recent 3D Earth model, WUS256 (Rodgers et al., 2022). Using the 3D model improves waveform fits (variance reduction and phase time shifts) compared with the 1D model, and the 3D MT solutions are stable across large distances. This study shows that 3D models obtained from full waveform tomography can improve MTs and source characterization especially at far regional distances (>800 km).

Geosciences↗
NASA NTRS1992

Patterns of seismic activity preceding large earthquakes

A mechanical model of seismic faults is employed to investigate the seismic activities that occur prior to major events. The block-and-spring model dynamically generates a statistical distribution of smaller slipping events that precede large events, and the results satisfy the Gutenberg-Richter law. The scaling behavior during a loading cycle suggests small but systematic variations in space and time with maximum activity acceleration near the future epicenter. Activity patterns inferred from data on seismicity in California demonstrate a regional aspect; increased activity in certain areas are found to precede major earthquake events. One example is given regarding the Loma Prieta earthquake of 1989 which is located near a fault section associated with increased activity levels.

Shaw, Bruce E.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Global Characteristics of Observable Foreshocks for Large Earthquakes

Abstract Foreshocks are the only currently widely identified precursory seismic behavior, yet their utility and even identifiability are problematic, in part because of extreme variation in behavior. Here, we establish some global trends that help identify the expected frequency of foreshocks as well the type of earthquake most prone to foreshocks. We establish these tendencies using the global earthquake catalog of the U.S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center with a completeness level of magnitude 5 and mainshocks with Mw≥7.0. Foreshocks are identified using three clustering algorithms to address the challenge of distinguishing foreshocks from background activity. The methods give a range of 15%–43% of large mainshocks having at least one foreshock but a narrower range of 13%–26% having at least one foreshock with magnitude within two units of the mainshock magnitude. These observed global foreshock rates are similar to regional values for a completeness level of magnitude 3 using the same detection conditions. The foreshock sequences have distinctive characteristics with the global composite population b-values being lower for foreshocks than for aftershocks, an attribute that is also manifested in synthetic catalogs computed by epidemic-type aftershock sequences, which intrinsically involves only cascading processes. Focal mechanism similarity of foreshocks relative to mainshocks is more pronounced than for aftershocks. Despite these distinguishing characteristics of foreshock sequences, the conditions that promote high foreshock productivity are similar to those that promote high aftershock productivity. For instance, a modestly higher percentage of interplate mainshocks have foreshocks than intraplate mainshocks, and reverse faulting events slightly more commonly have foreshocks than normal or strike-slip-faulting mainshocks. The western circum-Pacific is prone to having slightly more foreshock activity than the eastern circum-Pacific.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗
NASA NTRS1992

Polar motion, atmospheric angular momentum excitation and earthquakes - Correlations and significance

Equatorial atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) excitation functions and polar motion excitation functions (derived by Kalman filtering Very Long Baseline Interferometry polar motion estimates) are compared with the times of 1984-mid-1988 large earthquakes (magnitude greater than or equal to 7.5). There is a moderate correlation between times of large earthquakes and peaks in polar motion excitation. A strong correlation exists between the times of large earthquakes and large peaks in equatorial AAM amplitude; such a correlation is evident for six out of the eight large earthquakes occurring over the studied time interval. The AAM results indicate potential for the temporal prediction of large/great earthquakes.

Preisig, Joseph R.↗