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At least 19 records

Cross - Scale Intercomparison of Climate Change Impacts Simulated by Regional and Global Hydrological Models in Eleven Large River Basins

Ideally, the results from models operating at different scales should agree in trend direction and magnitude of impacts under climate change. However, this implies that the sensitivity to climate variability and climate change is comparable for impact models designed for either scale. In this study, we compare hydrological changes simulated by 9 global and 9 regional hydrological models (HM) for 11 large river basins in all continents under reference and scenario conditions. The foci are on model validation runs, sensitivity of annual discharge to climate variability in the reference period, and sensitivity of the long-term average monthly seasonal dynamics to climate change. One major result is that the global models, mostly not calibrated against observations, often show a considerable bias in mean monthly discharge, whereas regional models show a better reproduction of reference conditions. However, the sensitivity of the two HM ensembles to climate variability is in general similar. The simulated climate change impacts in terms of long-term average monthly dynamics evaluated for HM ensemble medians and spreads show that the medians are to a certain extent comparable in some cases, but have distinct differences in other cases, and the spreads related to global models are mostly notably larger. Summarizing, this implies that global HMs are useful tools when looking at large-scale impacts of climate change and variability. Whenever impacts for a specific river basin or region are of interest, e.g. for complex water management applications, the regional-scale models calibrated and validated against observed discharge should be used.

Hydrological models↗

Backwater Flooding in San Marcos, TX from the Blanco River

Large sections of San Marcos, TX were flooded in Oct. 1998, May 2015, and Oct. 2015. Much of the flooding in Oct. 1998 and Oct. 2015 was produced by overbank flooding of San Marcos River and its tributaries by spills from upstream dams. The May 2015 flooding was almost entirely produced by backwater flooding from the Blanco River whose confluence is approximately 2.2 miles southeast of downtown. We use the stage height of the Blanco River to generate maps of the areas of San Marcos that are lower than the flood peaks and compare those results with data for the observed extent of flooding in San Marcos. Our preliminary results suggest that the flooding occurred at locations more than 20 feet lower than the maximum stage height of the Blanco River at San Marcos gage (08171350). This suggest that the datum for either gage 08171350 or 08170500 (San Marcos River at San Marcos) or both are incorrect. There are plans for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to construct a Blanco River bypass that will divert Blanco River floodwaters approximately 2 miles farther downstream, but the $60 million price makes its implementation problematic.

Earl, Richard↗

A Comparative Study of Available Water in the Major River Basins of the World

Numerous large river basins of the world have few and irregular observations of the components of the terrestrial hydrological cycle with the exception of stream gauges at a few locations and at the outlet along with sparsely distributed rain gauges. Using observations from satellite sensors and output from global land surface models, it is possible to study these under-observed river basins. With populations greater than a billion people, some of these rivers (e.g., the Ganga-Brahmaputra, the Yangtze, the Nile and the Mekong) are the economic engines of the countries they transect, yet thorough assessment of their flow dynamics and variability in regard to water resource management is still lacking. In this paper, we use soil moisture (0-2m) and surface runoff from the NASA Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS), evapotranspiration, and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and rainfall from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and total water storage anomaly from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) to examine variability of individual water balance components. To this end, understanding the inter-annual and intra-seasonal variability and the spatial variability of the water balance components in the major river basins of the world will help to plan for improved management of water resources for the future.

GLDAS↗

Effects of Mackenzie River Discharge and Bathymetry on Sea Ice in the Beaufort Sea

Mackenzie River discharge and bathymetry effects on sea ice in the Beaufort Sea are examined in 2012 when Arctic sea ice extent hit a record low. Satellite-derived sea surface temperature revealed warmer waters closer to river mouths. By 5 July 2012, Mackenzie warm waters occupied most of an open water area about 316,000 sq km. Surface temperature in a common open water area increased by 6.5 C between 14 June and 5 July 2012, before and after the river waters broke through a recurrent landfast ice barrier formed over the shallow seafloor offshore the Mackenzie Delta. In 2012, melting by warm river waters was especially effective when the strong Beaufort Gyre fragmented sea ice into unconsolidated floes. The Mackenzie and other large rivers can transport an enormous amount of heat across immense continental watersheds into the Arctic Ocean, constituting a stark contrast to the Antarctic that has no such rivers to affect sea ice.

Mackenzie↗

Satellite Radar Altimetry for Monitoring Small Rivers and Lakes in Indonesia

Remote sensing and satellite geodetic observations are capable of hydrologic monitoring of freshwater resources. Although satellite radar altimetry has been used in monitoring water level or discharge, its use is often limited to monitoring large rivers ( >1 km) with longer interval periods (>1 week) because of its low temporal and spatial resolutions (i.e., satellite revisit period). Several studies have reported successful retrieval of water levels for small rivers as narrow as 40m. However, processing current satellite altimetry signals for such small water bodies to retrieve water levels accurately remains challenging. Physically, the radar signal returned by water bodies smaller than the satellite footprint is most likely contaminated by non-water surfaces, which may degrade the measurement quality. In order to address this scientific challenge, we carefully selected the waveform shapes corresponding to the range measurement resulting from standard retrackers for the European Space Agency's (ESA's) Envisat (Environmental Satellite) radar altimetry. We applied this approach to small (40-200m in width) and medium-sized (200-800m in width) rivers and small lakes (extent<1000 sq km) in the humid tropics of Southeast Asia, specifically in Indonesia. This is the first study that explored the ability of satellite altimetry to monitor small water bodies in Indonesia.

Satellite↗

On the Use of Ocean Color Remote Sensing to Measure the Transport of Dissolved Organic Carbon by the Mississippi River Plume

We investigated the use of ocean color remote sensing to measure transport of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) by the Mississippi River to the Gulf of Mexico. From 2000 to 2005 we recorded surface measurements of DOC, colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM), salinity, and water-leaving radiances during five cruises to the Mississippi River Plume. These measurements were used to develop empirical relationships to derive CDOM, DOC, and salinity from monthly composites of SeaWiFS imagery collected from 1998 through 2005. We used river flow data and a two-end-member mixing model to derive DOC concentrations in the river end-member, river flow, and DOC transport using remote sensing data. We compared our remote sensing estimates of river flow and DOC transport with data collected by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) from 1998 through 2005. Our remote sensing estimates of river flow and DOC transport correlated well (r2 ~ 0.70) with the USGS data. Our remote sensing estimates and USGS field data showed low variability in DOC concentrations in the river end-member (7-11%), and high seasonal variability in river flow (~50%). Therefore, changes in river flow control the variability in DOC transport, indicating that the remote sensing estimate of river flow is the most critical element of our DOC transport measurement. We concluded that it is possible to use this method to estimate DOC transport by other large rivers if there are data on the relationship between CDOM, DOC, and salinity in the river plume.

DelCastillo, Carlos E.↗

Thermal study of the Missouri River in North Dakota using infrared imagery

Studies of infrared imagery obtained from aircraft at 305- to 1,524-meter altitudes indicate the feasibility of monitoring thermal changes attributable to the operation of thermal electric plants and storage reservoirs, as well as natural phenomena such as tributary inflow and ground water seeps in large rivers. No identifiable sources of ground water inflow below the surface of the river could be found in the imagery. The thermal patterns from the generating plants and the major tributary inflow are readily apparent in imagery obtained from an altitude of 305 meters. Portions of the tape-recorded imagery were processed in a color-coded quantization to enhance the displays and to attach quantitative significance to the data. The study indicates a marked decrease in water temperature in the Missouri River prior to early fall and a moderate increase in temperature in late fall because of the Lake Sakakawea impoundment.

Crosby, O. A.↗

Arctic and subarctic environmental analyses utilizing ERTS-1 imagery

The author has identified the following significant results. ERTS-1 imagery provides a means of distinguishing and monitoring estuarine surface water circulation patterns and changes in the relative sediment load of discharging rivers on a regional basis. Physical boundaries mapped from ERTS-1 imagery in combination with ground truth obtained from existing small scale maps and other sources resulted in improved and more detailed maps of permafrost terrain and vegetation for the same area. Snowpack cover within a research watershed has been analyzed and compared to ground data. Large river icings along the proposed Alaska pipeline route from Prudhoe Bay to the Brooks Range have been monitored. Sea ice deformation and drift northeast of Point Barrow, Alaska have been measured during a four day period in March and shore-fast ice accumulation and ablation along the west coast of Alaska have been mapped for the spring and early summer seasons.

Anderson, D. M.↗

Applications of ERTS-1 imagery to terrestrial and marine environmental analyses in Alaska

ERTS-1 imagery provides a means of distinguishing and monitoring estuarine surface water circulation patterns and changes in the relative sediment load of discharging rivers on a regional basis. It also will aid local fishing industries by augmenting currently available hydrologic and navigation charts. The interpretation of geologic and vegetation features resulted in preparation of improved surficial geology, vegetation and permafrost terrain maps at a scale of 1:1 million utilizing ERTS-1 band 7 imagery. This information will be further utilized in a route and site selection study for the Nome to Kobuk Road in central Alaska. Large river icings along the proposed Alaska pipeline route have been monitored. Sea ice deformation and drift northeast of Point Barrow, Alaska has been measured and shorefast ice accumulation and ablation along the west coast of Alaska is being mapped for the spring and early summer seasons. These data will be used for route and site selection, regional environmental analysis, identification and inventory of natural resources, land use planning, and in land use regulation and management.

Anderson, D. M.↗

Influence of SMAP Soil Moisture Retrieval Assimilation on Runoff Estimation Across South Asia

This study was designed to characterize and quantify the influence of surface soil moisture assimilation on estimated runoff (surface flow and baseflow) and hydraulically-routed streamflow across three large river basins in South Asia that are at risk of impending water stress. Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) surface soil moisture retrievals were assimilated into the Noah-MP land surface model. The gridded runoff was hydraulically routed to obtain volumetric streamflow values for a river network using a runoff routing module (Hydrological Modeling and Analysis Platform, HyMAP). The open loop (OL, model-only) and data assimilated (DA, includes soil moisture retrieval assimilation) Noah-MP runoff estimates highlighted the improvements in estimated total runoff across irrigated areas. Soil moisture assimilation impacted baseflow more relative to surface runoff. The HyMAP-based OL and DA streamflow generally underestimated the streamflow at upstream stations and overestimated the streamflow at downstream stations within the Indus basin due to missing physics related to reservoir operations. For stations located in the Ganges–Brahmaputra basins, the OL and DA estimation performance varied. The OL and DA results showed that the assimilation of soil moisture retrievals improves gridded runoff and volumetric streamflow across irrigated areas. Considerable relative change in streamflow (>70% increase in magnitude relative to OL) is noted after assimilation across the highly irrigated lower Indus basin and high precipitation regions in Bangladesh. Improving the modeling system’s representativeness of ground conditions via inclusion of water management information could improve large-scale streamflow modeling across South Asia.

soil moisture↗

Use of thermal-infrared imagery in ground-water investigations in Montana

Thermal infrared imagery was used to locate ground-water inflow along three streams and one lake in Montana. The thermal scanner used in May 1972, March 1973, and November 1975 was mounted in a twin-engined aircraft. On the 1973 and 1975 flights, the data were recorded in an analog format on magnetic tape in flight, later were converted to digital format, and were computer processed using an assignment of patterns to indicate differences in water temperature. Output from the image processing program was converted to a temperature map having an isotherm spacing of 0.5 C. Computerization was found to be the most efficient method to manipulate data from lakes, large rivers, and narrow sinuous streams.

Boettcher, A. J.↗

The erosion of streamlined islands, longitudinal grooves and scour marks: Implications to the origin of the Martian outflow channels

The diversity of proposed origins for large Martian outflow channels results from the differing interpretations given to the landforms associated with the outflow channels. In an attempt to help limit the possible mechanisms of channel erosion, detailed studies of three of the channel features were done; the streamlined islands, longitudinal grooves and scour marks. This examination involved a comparison of the martian streamlined islands with various streamlined landforms on Earth including those found in the Channel Scabland in large rivers, glacial drumlins, and desert yardangs. The comparisons included statistical analyses of the landform lengths versus widths and positions of maximum width, and an examination of the degree of shape agreement with the geometric lemniscate which was in turn demonstrated to correspond closely with true airfoil shapes. The analyses showed that the shapes of the martian islands correspond closely to the streamlined islands in rivers and the Channel Scabland land. Drumlins show a much smaller correlation. Erosional rock islands formed by glaciers are very much different in shape.

Komar, P. D.↗

Clear-sky radiative characteristics of South America derived from geostationary satellite data

Estimates of clear-sky albedo and equivalent blackbody temperatures derived from the Geostationary Operational Environment Satellite are presented. Regional clear-sky albedo over South America at noon ranged from 10 to 22 percent during November 1978 and February 1979, mean clear-sky albedo over the continent remained fairly constant at about 12.4 percent. A slight seasonal decrease in albedo found in a number of large river valleys is attributed to seasonal flooding. The average clear-sky albedo varied diurnally by factors of 2.0 and 2.3 from the value at noon over desert and vegetated areas, respectively. The mean regional clear-sky equivalent blackbody temperature ranged from 283 to 295 K.

Minnis, P.↗

A First Approach to Global Runoff Simulation using Satellite Rainfall Estimation

Many hydrological models have been introduced in the hydrological literature to predict runoff but few of these have become common planning or decision-making tools, either because the data requirements are substantial or because the modeling processes are too complicated for operational application. On the other hand, progress in regional or global rainfall-runoff simulation has been constrained by the difficulty of measuring spatiotemporal variability of the primary causative factor, i.e. rainfall fluxes, continuously over space and time. Building on progress in remote sensing technology, researchers have improved the accuracy, coverage, and resolution of rainfall estimates by combining imagery from infrared, passive microwave, and space-borne radar sensors. Motivated by the recent increasing availability of global remote sensing data for estimating precipitation and describing land surface characteristics, this note reports a ballpark assessment of quasi-global runoff computed by incorporating satellite rainfall data and other remote sensing products in a relatively simple rainfall-runoff simulation approach: the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) runoff Curve Number (CN) method. Using an Antecedent Precipitation Index (API) as a proxy of antecedent moisture conditions, this note estimates time-varying NRCS-CN values determined by the 5-day normalized API. Driven by multi-year (1998-2006) Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis, quasi-global runoff was retrospectively simulated with the NRCS-CN method and compared to Global Runoff Data Centre data at global and catchment scales. Results demonstrated the potential for using this simple method when diagnosing runoff values from satellite rainfall for the globe and for medium to large river basins. This work was done with the simple NRCS-CN method as a first-cut approach to understanding the challenges that lie ahead in advancing the satellite-based inference of global runoff. We expect that the successes and limitations revealed in this study will lay the basis for applying more advanced methods to capture the dynamic variability of the global hydrologic process for global runoff monlto~ngin real time. The essential ingredient in this work is the use of global satellite-based rainfall estimation.

Hong, Yang↗

Recent GRACE-Enabled Hydrologic Research and Applications

This presentation will describe recent hydrology research and applications which make use of GRACE data. These include the following: 1) water balance estimates of evapotranspiration over several large river basins; 2) a summary of NASA's Energy and Water Cycle Study (NEWS) state of the global water budget project; 3) drought indicator products now being incorporated into the U.S. Drought Monitor; 4) new GRACE data assimilation results over several regions

Rodell, Matt↗

Integrating Data from GRACE and Other Observing Systems for Hydrological Research and Applications

The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission provides a unique view of water cycle dynamics, enabling the only space based observations of water on and beneath the land surface that are not limited by depth. GRACE data are immediately useful for large scale applications such as ice sheet ablation monitoring, but they are even more valuable when combined with other types of observations, either directly or within a data assimilation system. Here we describe recent results of hydrological research and applications projects enabled by GRACE. These include the following: 1) global monitoring of interannual variability of terrestrial water storage and groundwater; 2) water balance estimates of evapotranspiration over several large river basins; 3) NASA's Energy and Water Cycle Study (NEWS) state of the global water budget project; 4) drought indicator products now being incorporated into the U.S. Drought Monitor; 5) GRACE data assimilation over several regions.

Rodell, M.↗

Assessment of Evolving TRMM-Based Real-Time Precipitation Estimation Methods and Their Impacts on Hydrologic Prediction in a High-Latitude Basin

The real-time availability of satellite-derived precipitation estimates provides hydrologists an opportunity to improve current hydrologic prediction capability for medium to large river basins. Due to the availability of new satellite data and upgrades to the precipitation algorithms, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis real-time estimates (TMPA-RT) have been undergoing several important revisions over the past ten years. In this study, the changes of the relative accuracy and hydrologic potential of TMPA-RT estimates over its three major evolving periods were evaluated and inter-compared at daily, monthly and seasonal scales in the high-latitude Laohahe basin in China. Assessment results show that the performance of TMPA-RT in terms of precipitation estimation and streamflow simulation was significantly improved after 3 February 2005. Overestimation during winter months was noteworthy and consistent, which is suggested to be a consequence from interference of snow cover to the passive microwave retrievals. Rainfall estimated by the new version 6 of TMPA-RT starting from 1 October 2008 to present has higher correlations with independent gauge observations and tends to perform better in detecting rain compared to the prior periods, although it suffers larger mean error and relative bias. After a simple bias correction, this latest dataset of TMPA-RT exhibited the best capability in capturing hydrologic response among the three tested periods. In summary, this study demonstrated that there is an increasing potential in the use of TMPA-RT in hydrologic streamflow simulations over its three algorithm upgrade periods, but still with significant challenges during the winter snowing events.

hydrologic prediction↗