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At least 19 records

A model for the prediction of latent errors using data obtained during the development process

A model implemented in a program that runs on the IBM PC for estimating the latent (or post ship) content of a body of software upon its initial release to the user is presented. The model employs the count of errors discovered at one or more of the error discovery processes during development, such as a design inspection, as the input data for a process which provides estimates of the total life-time (injected) error content and of the latent (or post ship) error content--the errors remaining a delivery. The model presented presumes that these activities cover all of the opportunities during the software development process for error discovery (and removal).

Gaffney, J. E., Jr.↗

A rose by any other name: Certification seen as process rather than content

Green (1990) believes that the two main factors safeguarding flying from human error are both related to certification and regulation. First is the increasingly proceduralized nature of flying whereby as much as possible is reduced to a rule-based activity. Second is the emphasis placed upon training and competency checking of aircrew in simulators and in the air, both generally and for all particular types of aircraft flown. This leaves, believes Green, other human factors that are relatively unaddressed as yet and which can give rise to human reliability problems. These include: hardware factors and especially pilot/co-pilot relationships; and system factors including fatigue and cost/safety trade-offs. He also, importantly, identifies problems with the integration of the 'electronic crew member' following increased automation. Human reliability failures with artificial intelligence and automation, due to over-reliance on the system fail-safe mechanisms, or to operator under- confidence in the integrity or self-regulating capacity of the system, or to out-of-loop effects, are widely accepted as being due to deficiencies in plant design, planning, management and maintenance more than to 'operator error' - Reason's (1990) latent error or organization pathogens argument. Reliability failures in complex systems are well enough documented to give cause for concern and at least promote a debate on the merits of a full certification program. The purpose of this short paper is to seek out and explore what is valuable in certification, at the least to show that the benefits outweigh the disadvantages and at best to identify positive outcomes perhaps not obtainable in other ways. On both sides of the debate on certification there is general agreement on the need for a better human factors perspective and effort in complex aviation systems design. What is at issue is how this is to be promoted. It is incumbent upon opponents of certification to say how else such promotion be enabled. This is an exploratory and philosophical review, not a focused and specific one, and it will draw upon much that is not firmly in the domain of complex aviation systems.

Wilson, John R.↗

Measurement-based analysis of error latency

This paper demonstrates a practical methodology for the study of error latency under a real workload. The method is illustrated with sampled data on the physical memory activity, gathered by hardware instrumentation on a VAX 11/780 during the normal workload cycle of the installation. These data are used to simulate fault occurrence and to reconstruct the error discovery process in the system. The technique provides a means to study the system under different workloads and for multiple days. An approach to determine the percentage of undiscovered errors is also developed and a verification of the entire methodology is performed. This study finds that the mean error latency, in the memory containing the operating system, varies by a factor of 10 to 1 (in hours) between the low and high workloads. It is found that of all errors occurring within a day, 70 percent are detected in the same day, 82 percent within the following day, and 91 percent within the third day. The increase in failure rate due to latency is not so much a function of remaining errors but is dependent on whether or not there is a latent error.

Chillarege, Ram↗

Analysis of the impact of error detection on computer performance

Conventionally, reliability analyses either assume that a fault/error is detected immediately following its occurrence, or neglect damages caused by latent errors. Though unrealistic, this assumption was imposed in order to avoid the difficulty of determining the respective probabilities that a fault induces an error and the error is then detected in a random amount of time after its occurrence. As a remedy for this problem a model is proposed to analyze the impact of error detection on computer performance under moderate assumptions. Error latency, the time interval between occurrence and the moment of detection, is used to measure the effectiveness of a detection mechanism. This model is used to: (1) predict the probability of producing an unreliable result, and (2) estimate the loss of computation due to fault and/or error.

Shin, K. C.↗

Error latency measurements in symbolic architectures

Error latency, the time that elapses between the occurrence of an error and its detection, has a significant effect on reliability. In computer systems, failure rates can be elevated during a burst of system activity due to increased detection of latent errors. A hybrid monitoring environment is developed to measure the error latency distribution of errors occurring in main memory. The objective of this study is to develop a methodology for gauging the dependability of individual data categories within a real-time application. The hybrid monitoring technique is novel in that it selects and categorizes a specific subset of the available blocks of memory to monitor. The precise times of reads and writes are collected, so no actual faults need be injected. Unlike previous monitoring studies that rely on a periodic sampling approach or on statistical approximation, this new approach permits continuous monitoring of referencing activity and precise measurement of error latency.

Young, L. T.↗

A methodology for validating software reliability

A significant problem associated with fault tolerant computer system design is how to insure that there are no embedded software errors, so that an avionics computer system meets the required reliability level. To accomplish this, it is necessary to associate a 'probability of failure' with the operational flight program. It would be more correct to say that the probability of excitation of existing latent design errors within the program is required. In this sense, latent software errors are like latent hardware faults, and techniques that were previously used to measure the probability of failure of hardware due to fault latency can be used to measure the probability of failure of the software. A methodology was developed and applied to a flight control program that was known to operate in a well defined environment. The results indicated that the technique could be used to provide a final validation of the software to a specified reliability level and to evaluate the role of flight test in software validation.

Swern, Frederic L.↗

Injecting Errors for Testing Built-In Test Software

Two algorithms have been conceived to enable automated, thorough testing of Built-in test (BIT) software. The first algorithm applies to BIT routines that define pass/fail criteria based on values of data read from such hardware devices as memories, input ports, or registers. This algorithm simulates effects of errors in a device under test by (1) intercepting data from the device and (2) performing AND operations between the data and the data mask specific to the device. This operation yields values not expected by the BIT routine. This algorithm entails very small, permanent instrumentation of the software under test (SUT) for performing the AND operations. The second algorithm applies to BIT programs that provide services to users application programs via commands or callable interfaces and requires a capability for test-driver software to read and write the memory used in execution of the SUT. This algorithm identifies all SUT code execution addresses where errors are to be injected, then temporarily replaces the code at those addresses with small test code sequences to inject latent severe errors, then determines whether, as desired, the SUT detects the errors and recovers

Gender, Thomas K.↗

Integrating Safety in the Aviation System: Interdepartmental Training for Pilots and Maintenance Technicians

The study of human factors has had a decisive impact on the aviation industry. However, the entire aviation system often is not considered in researching, training, and evaluating human factors issues especially with regard to safety. In both conceptual and practical terms, we argue for the proactive management of human error from both an individual and organizational systems perspective. The results of a multidisciplinary research project incorporating survey data from professional pilots and maintenance technicians and an exploratory study integrating students from relevant disciplines are reported. Survey findings suggest that latent safety errors may occur during the maintenance discrepancy reporting process because pilots and maintenance technicians do not effectively interact with one another. The importance of interdepartmental or cross-disciplinary training for decreasing these errors and increasing safety is discussed as a primary implication.

Mattson, Marifran↗

Care 3 phase 2 report, maintenance manual

CARE 3 (Computer-Aided Reliability Estimation, version three) is a computer program designed to help estimate the reliability of complex, redundant systems. Although the program can model a wide variety of redundant structures, it was developed specifically for fault-tolerant avionics systems--systems distinguished by the need for extremely reliable performance since a system failure could well result in the loss of human life. It substantially generalizes the class of redundant configurations that could be accommodated, and includes a coverage model to determine the various coverage probabilities as a function of the applicable fault recovery mechanisms (detection delay, diagnostic scheduling interval, isolation and recovery delay, etc.). CARE 3 further generalizes the class of system structures that can be modeled and greatly expands the coverage model to take into account such effects as intermittent and transient faults, latent faults, error propagation, etc.

Bryant, L. A.↗

The CARE 3 Phase 3 Report: Test and Evaluation

CARE 3 (Computer-Aided Reliability Estimation, version three) is a computer program designed to help estimate the reliability of complex, redundant systems; although the program can model a wide variety of redundant structures, it was developed specifically for fault-tolerant avionics systems, systems distinguished by the need for extremely reliable performance since a system failure could well result in the loss of human life. CARE 3 further generalizes the class of system structures that can be modeled and greatly expands the coverage model to take into account such effects as intermittent and transient faults, latent faults, error propagation, etc. The initial test and evaluation of CARE 3 are reported.

Stiffler, J. J.↗

SSME digital control design characteristics

To protect against a latent programming error (software fault) existing in an untried branch combination that would render the space shuttle out of control in a critical flight phase, the Backup Flight System (BFS) was chartered to provide a safety alternative. The BFS is designed to operate in critical flight phases (ascent and descent) by monitoring the activities of the space shuttle flight subsystems that are under control of the primary flight software (PFS) (e.g., navigation, crew interface, propulsion), then, upon manual command by the flightcrew, to assume control of the space shuttle and deliver it to a noncritical flight condition (safe orbit or touchdown). The problems associated with the selection of the PFS/BFS system architecture, the internal BFS architecture, the fault tolerant software mechanisms, and the long term BFS utility are discussed.

Mitchell, W. T.↗

Transient fault behavior in a microprocessor: A case study

An experimental analysis is described which studies the susceptibility of a microprocessor based jet engine controller to upsets caused by current and voltage transients. A design automation environment which allows the run time injection of transients and the tracing from their impact device to the pin level is described. The resulting error data are categorized by the charge levels of the injected transients by location and by their potential to cause logic upsets, latched errors, and pin errors. The results show a 3 picoCouloumb threshold, below which the transients have little impact. An Arithmetic and Logic Unit transient is most likely to result in logic upsets and pin errors (i.e., impact the external environment). The transients in the countdown unit are potentially serious since they can result in latched errors, thus causing latent faults. Suggestions to protect the processor against these errors, by incorporating internal error detection and transient suppression techniques, are also made.

Duba, Patrick↗

On the Use of Resilience Models as Digital Twins for Operational Support and In time Decision Making

Human error is a major contributor to accidents and performance losses in complex engineered systems. If one examines these human error caused failures further, a specific cause, the lack of situation awareness, has dominated as a major cause of human errors that instigate latent or catastrophic failures in complex systems. Studies of aviation accidents involving major air carriers revealed that situation awareness was the root cause of around 90% of accidents involving pilot error. Another study explored offshore drilling accidents involving human error and found that 40% of accidents were directly attributed to the loss of situation awareness. Studies of human errors in other domains such as nuclear power, air traffic control, process industry, and advanced driving show that loss of SA was a root cause in a majority of the events. Situation awareness-related failures are not only common but also costly and fatal (e.g., Bhopal Gas Leak, Air France 447 Flight Crash). Thus, the concept of situation awareness has emerged as an important construct in human factors, resulting in numerous models and measurement methods to aid in promoting appropriate levels of situation awareness.

Lukman Irshad↗

CARE 3 phase 2 report - mathematical description

CARE III (Computer-Aided Reliability Estimation, version three) a computer program designed to help estimate the reliability of complex, redundant systems is described. Although the program can model a wide variety of redundant structures, it was developed specifically for fault tolerant avionics systems. CARE III generalizes the class of system structures that can be modeled and greatly expands the coverage model to take into account such effects as intermittent and transient faults, latent faults, and error propagation.

Stiffler, J. J.↗

Anisotropy of thermal infrared exitance in sunflower canopies

Anisotropy of thermal infrared exitance above and within a relatively closed fully irrigated sunflower canopy is detailed. Azimuthal variation in thermal infrared exitance above canopies was weakly (statistically) related to solar position and was comparable to or larger than errors in satellite-based canopy estimates. Anisotropy within canopies was significantly lower and decreased with canopy closure and depth into the canopy. Measured azimuthal isotropy within canopies supports the use of this assumption in radiative transfer models. Significant differences in canopy temperature measurements were found depending upon whether the instruments were within or above the canopy. These differences could produce errors of 20-35 percent in latent energy estimates during periods of high evapotranspiration (ET) and greater errors in periods of restricted ET.

Tha Paw u, Kyaw↗

Simple Forest Canopy Thermal Exitance Model

We describe a model to calculate brightness temperature and surface energy balance for a forest canopy system. The model is an extension of an earlier vegetation only model by inclusion of a simple soil layer. The root mean square error in brightness temperature for a dense forest canopy was 2.5 C. Surface energy balance predictions were also in good agreement. The corresponding root mean square errors for net radiation, latent, and sensible heat were 38.9, 30.7, and 41.4 W/sq m respectively.

Smith J. A.↗

The Surface Heat Flux as a Function of Ground Cover for Climate Models

Surface heat fluxes were examined as a function of surface properties and meteorological conditions in a 100 km x 100 km grid square at 1-km spatial resolution centered at the location of the First ISLSCP (International Satellite Land Surface Climatology Project) Field Experiment (FIFE), the Forest Ecosystem Dynamics site in central Maine, and a semiarid rangeland site around Walnut Gulch, Arizona. This investigation treats the surface heat flux variability within a GCM grid box to provide insight into methods for treating that variability in climate models. The heat fluxes were calculated using NOAA AVHRR and available meteorological data. The average heat fluxes that were estimated using the various area ground-cover representations were compared with the ensemble average heat fluxes for the entire area, which were assumed to be the best representation of the heat fluxes for the areas. Average beat fluxes were estimated for the entire 100 km x 100 km area based on a single ground-cover representation, and the mean error for the area sensible heat flux was about 10% and for the area latent heat flux, 21%. The estimation error was reduced, and in some cases significantly reduced, when the area heat fluxes were estimated by partitioning the area according to significant ground cover. The most significant effect of the partitioning was on the latent heat flux estimates.

Vukovich, Fred M.↗

DEPEND: A simulation-based environment for system level dependability analysis

The design and evaluation of highly reliable computer systems is a complex issue. Designers mostly develop such systems based on prior knowledge and experience and occasionally from analytical evaluations of simplified designs. A simulation-based environment called DEPEND which is especially geared for the design and evaluation of fault-tolerant architectures is presented. DEPEND is unique in that it exploits the properties of object-oriented programming to provide a flexible framework with which a user can rapidly model and evaluate various fault-tolerant systems. The key features of the DEPEND environment are described, and its capabilities are illustrated with a detailed analysis of a real design. In particular, DEPEND is used to simulate the Unix based Tandem Integrity fault-tolerance and evaluate how well it handles near-coincident errors caused by correlated and latent faults. Issues such as memory scrubbing, re-integration policies, and workload dependent repair times which affect how the system handles near-coincident errors are also evaluated. Issues such as the method used by DEPEND to simulate error latency and the time acceleration technique that provides enormous simulation speed up are also discussed. Unlike any other simulation-based dependability studies, the use of these approaches and the accuracy of the simulation model are validated by comparing the results of the simulations, with measurements obtained from fault injection experiments conducted on a production Tandem Integrity machine.

Goswami, Kumar↗