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To convey information about NASA shares information to programs, projects, Centers on the status of certain activities/requirements via dashboards. in addition, how we use leading indicators to anticipate and mitigate problems prior to an accident.
Shewhart control charts have been established as an expedient method for analyzing dynamic, trending data in order to identify anomalous subsystem performance as soon as such performance would exceed a statistically established baseline. Additionally, this leading indicator tool integrates a selection methodology that reduces false positive indications, optimizes true leading indicator events, minimizes computer processor unit duty cycles, and addresses human factor concerns (i.e., the potential for flight-controller data overload). This innovation leverages statistical process control, and provides a relatively simple way to allow flight controllers to focus their attention on subtle system changes that could lead to dramatic off-nominal system performance. Finally, this capability improves response time to potential hardware damage and/or crew injury, thereby improving space flight safety. Shewhart control charts require normalized data. However, the telemetry from the ISS Early External Thermal Control System (EETCS) was not normally distributed. A method for normalizing the data was implemented, as was a means of selecting data windows, the number of standard deviations (Sigma Level), the number of consecutive points out of limits (Sequence), and direction (increasing or decreasing trend data). By varying these options, and treating them like dial settings, the number of nuisance alerts and leading indicators were optimized. The goal was to capture all leading indicators while minimizing the number of nuisances. Lean Six Sigma (L6S) design of experiment methodologies were employed. To optimize the results, Perl programming language was used to automate the massive amounts of telemetry data, control chart plots, and the data analysis.
Prognostics is an engineering discipline that focuses on estimation of the health state of a component and the prediction of its remaining useful life (RUL) before failure. Health state estimation is based on actual conditions and it is fundamental for the prediction of RUL under anticipated future usage. Failure of electronic devices is of great concern as future aircraft will see an increase of electronics to drive and control safety-critical equipment throughout the aircraft. Therefore, development of prognostics solutions for electronics is of key importance. This paper presents an accelerated aging system for gate-controlled power transistors. This system allows for the understanding of the effects of failure mechanisms, and the identification of leading indicators of failure which are essential in the development of physics-based degradation models and RUL prediction. In particular, this system isolates electrical overstress from thermal overstress. Also, this system allows for a precise control of internal temperatures, enabling the exploration of intrinsic failure mechanisms not related to the device packaging. By controlling the temperature within safe operation levels of the device, accelerated aging is induced by electrical overstress only, avoiding the generation of thermal cycles. The temperature is controlled by active thermal-electric units. Several electrical and thermal signals are measured in-situ and recorded for further analysis in the identification of leading indicators of failures. This system, therefore, provides a unique capability in the exploration of different failure mechanisms and the identification of precursors of failure that can be used to provide a health management solution for electronic devices.
Apollo 16 breccia 66095 contains a remarkably high amount of lead (15 parts per million), 85 percent of which is not supported by uranium and thorium in the rock. An acid leach experiment coupled with separate analyses of the whole rock and mineral fractions for uranium, thorium, and lead indicate that the excess lead has a lunar source and was apparently introduced about 4.0 b.y. ago. The data also suggest that a major lunar crustal differentiation occurred about 4.47 b.y. ago.
In this study gridded observed precipitation data sets are used to construct rainfall-based ENSO indices. The monthly El Nino and La Nina Indices (EI and LI) measure the steepest zonal gradient of precipitation anomalies between the equatorial Pacific and the Maritime Continent. This is accomplished by spatially averaging precipitation anomalies using a spatial boxcar filter, finding the maximum and minimum averages within a Pacific and Maritime Continent domain for each month, and taking differences. EI and LI can be examined separately or combined to produce one ENSO Precipitation Index (ESPI). ESPI is well correlated with traditional sea surface temperature and pressure indices, leading Nino 3.4. One advantage precipitation indices have over more conventional indices, is describing the strength and position of the Walker circulation. Examples are given of tracking the impact of ENSO events on the tropical precipitation fields.
Purpose: 1) Understand and measure JSC workplace health: a) levels, sources, indicators & effects of negative, work-related stress; b) define leading indicators of emerging issues. 2 Provide linkage to outcomes: a) Focus application of wellness strategies & HR tools; b) Increase quality of work life and productivity. 3) Current effort will result in: a) Online assessment tool; b) Assessment of total JSC population (civil service & contractors); c) Application of mitigation tools and strategies. 4) Product of the JSC Employee Wellness Program. 5) Collaboration with Corporate Health Improvement Program/University of Arizona.
Famine early warning organizations use data from multiple disciplines to assess food insecurity of communities and regions in less-developed parts of the World. In this paper we integrate several indicators that are available to enhance the information for preparation for and responses to food security emergencies. The assessment uses a price model based on the relationship between the suitability of the growing season and market prices for coarse grain. The model is then used to create spatially continuous maps of millet prices. The model is applied to the dry central and northern areas of West Africa, using satellite-derived vegetation indices for the entire region. By coupling the model with vegetation data estimated for one to four months into the future, maps are created of a leading indicator of potential price movements. It is anticipated that these maps can be used to enable early warning of famine and for planning appropriate responses.
Isotopic lead data from bulk samples of Apollo 17 soils were analyzed, and they define a chord in a concordia diagram, showing the presence of a component or components containing excess radiogenic lead with Pb-207/Pb-206 equal to about 1.32. The chord is distinctly different from the cataclysm chord, for which Pb-207/Pb-206 is approximately 1.45. Nitric acid analysis of plagioclase indicates lead ages of around 4.35 AE, in agreement with previous findings. Agglutinates from soil 76501,34 show loss of approximately 15% of lead.
Wildfires are a major concern around the globe because of the immediate impact they have on people's lives, local ecosystems, and the environment. Soil moisture is one of the most important factors that influences wildfire occurrences and spread. However, it is also one of the most challenging hydrological variables to measure routinely and accurately. Therefore, soil moisture is significantly underutilized in operational wildfire risk applications. Thus, the aim here is to use a well-established operational soil moisture product to isolate the soil moisture-fire relationship and assess the utility of using soil moisture as a leading indicator of potential fire risk. We evaluated the value of remotely-sensed soil moisture observations from the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) sensor for monitoring and predicting fire risk in Australia and California. We quantified the relationship between observed fire activity and soil moisture conditions and analyzed the soil moisture conditions for two extreme fire events. Our findings show that fire activity is strongly associated with soil moisture anomalies. Lagged correlation analysis demonstrated that a remote-sensing based soil moisture product could predict fire activity with a 1-2 month lead-time. Soil moisture anomalies consistently decreased in the months preceding fire occurrence, often from normal to drier conditions, according to a spatiotemporal analysis of soil moisture in two extreme fire events. Overall, our findings indicate that soil moisture conditions prior to large wildfires can aid in their prediction and operational satellite-based soil moisture products such as the one used here have real value for supporting wildfire susceptibility and impacts.
Encounters with wind shears are of concern and have caused major accidents, particularly during landing approaches. Changes in the longitudinal component of the wind affect the aircraft by changing its kinetic energy with respect to the air. It is shown that an instrument which will measure and display the rate of change of total energy of the aircraft with respect to the air will give a leading indication of wind shear problems. The concept is outlined and some instrumentation and display considerations are discussed.
The Orbiter Autoland system is activated at 10,000 ft altitude and performs energy control through speedbrake modulation, vertical path tracking with acceleration commands to the pitch control system, lateral path tracking through bank angle commands to the roll control system, and brings the vehicle to main gear touchdown. A nominal 19 degree glide slope is flown down to 2000 ft, followed by a 1.5 deg path to flare and subsequent soft landing. The flight path is similar to that which a pilot would fly, a feature which increases safety factors should manual takeover be necessary during landing maneuvers. A block diagram of the autoland control interfaces is provided, and attention is given to the use of a reference trajectory, the guidance laws, lateral guidance, the speed control system, pitch rate control, and the rollout system. Conditions and instrument indications leading to pilot takeover are outlined.
Published values for the long-term, global mean sea level rise determined from tide gauge records range from about one to three mm per year. The scatter of the estimates appears to arise largely from the use of data from gauges located at convergent tectonic plate boundaries where changes of land elevation give fictitious sea level trends, and the effects of large interdecadal and longer sea level variations on short (less than 50+ years) or sappy records. In addition, virtually all gauges undergo subsidence or uplift due to isostatic rebound from the last deglaciation at a rate comparable to or greater than the secular rise of sea level. Modeling rebound by the ICE-3G model of Tushingham and Peltier (1990) and avoiding tide gauge records in areas of converging tectonic plates produces a highly consistent set of long sea level records. A global set of 21 such stations in nine oceanic regions with an average record length of 76 years during the period 1880-1980 yields the global sea level rise value 1.8 mm/year +/- 0.1. Greenhouse warming scenarios commonly forecast an additional acceleration of global sea level in the next 5 or 6+ decades in the range 0.1-0.2 mm/yr2. Because of the large power at low frequencies in the sea level spectrum, very long tide gauge records (75 years minimum) have been examined for past apparent sea level acceleration. For the 80-year period 1905-1985, 23 essentially complete tide gauge records in 10 geographic groups are available for analysis. These yielded the apparent global acceleration -0.011 (+/- 0.012) mm/yr2. A larger, less uniform set of 37 records in the same 10 groups with 92 years average length covering the 141 years from 1850-1991 gave 0.001 (+/- 0.008) mm/yr2. Thus there is no evidence for an apparent acceleration in the past 100+ years that is significant either statistically, or in comparison to values associated with global warming. Unfortunately, the large interdecadal fluctuations of sea level severely affect estimates of global sea level acceleration for time spans of less than about 50 years. This means that tide gauges alone cannot serve as a reliable leading indicator of climate change in less than many decades. This time required can be significantly reduced if the interdecadal fluctuations of sea level can be understood in terms of their forcing mechanisms, and then removed from the tide gauge records.
Like two enormous steam engines, throttles wide-open, bells clanging and whistles screeching, careening toward each other down the same track, two powerful forces are about to collide and the point of collision will be smack in the middle of the white-collar workplace. Moreover, once the dust has settled, it is quite likely that we will never be able to think about the white-collar workplace in quite the same way again. The forces couldn't be more different. One force, the theory of complex adaptive systems, has its roots in the radical new sciences of chaos and complexity. The other force, the notion of organizations being learning systems, more like living organisms than 'information factories,' is an outgrowth of the new management thinking of leading organizational theorists like the Claremont Graduate School's Peter Drucker, MIT's Peter Senge, and Hitotsubashi University's Ikujiro Nonaka. Nevertheless, both the new science and the new management thinking seem to point to a similar and perhaps even startling conclusion: the business organization of the 21st century will look nothing like the bureaucratic organizational model that prevails in most companies today, a model that has remained largely unchanged since the manufacturing heydays of 1950s. While the details of the new organization remain sketchy, its rough outline is already beginning to take shape. Rather than simply being flatter through the elimination of layer upon layer of 'middle management,' the new organization is likely to be made up of networks of specialists who will be, for all practical purposes, self-managing. Rather than focusing on issues like re-engineering business processes, a holdover from Taylorism, the focus will be on supporting the continuous learning of an organization's specialists, the sharing of this learning with other specialists, and the embedding of this learning in the organization's physical structure. Finally, rather than viewing themselves as going through relatively long periods of stability punctuated by shorts bursts of 'reorganization,' business enterprises will come to realize that their very survival depends upon their being in a state of continuous organization. The implications of the new organization with respect to how companies approach the planning, design, and management of the technology infrastructure that enables individual learning, self-management, and continuous orgsnization, are both numerous and far-reaching. As part of this technology infrastructure, the white-collar workplace exists in the form it does today as a direct result of management's beliefs about how time, space, and tools ought to be organized and managed in order to accomplish useful intellectual work. Obviously, if these beliefs change radically, as both the new science and the new management thinking suggest is about to happen, then it is almost inevitable that the form and function of the white-collar workplace will change radically, as well. Will there even be a white-collar workplace in the 21st century, in the sense of purpose-built facilities designed to support the co-location of large numbers of white-collar workers? Only time will tell. However, the leading indicators seem to suggest that, as the old saying goes, 'We ain't seen nothin' yet!'
Accident Precursor Analysis (APA) serves as the bridge between existing risk modeling activities, which are often based on historical or generic failure statistics, and system anomalies, which provide crucial information about the failure mechanisms that are actually operative in the system and which may differ in frequency or type from those in the various models. These discrepancies between the models (perceived risk) and the system (actual risk) provide the leading indication of an underappreciated risk. This paper presents an APA process developed specifically for NASA Earth-to-Orbit space systems. The purpose of the process is to identify and characterize potential sources of system risk as evidenced by anomalous events which, although not necessarily presenting an immediate safety impact, may indicate that an unknown or insufficiently understood risk-significant condition exists in the system. Such anomalous events are considered accident precursors because they signal the potential for severe consequences that may occur in the future, due to causes that are discernible from their occurrence today. Their early identification allows them to be integrated into the overall system risk model used to intbrm decisions relating to safety.
In early 2007, an incident involving former astronaut, Lisa Nowak, led NASA to conduct several reviews including internal and external evaluations of astronaut behavioral health and medical care. The internal NASA review, led by Johnson Space Center (JSC), focused on two elements: 1) current astronaut behavioral medicine practices and 2) a review of relevant records and information to determine whether any leading indicators that could have averted the incident were missed. The external review, conducted by the NASA Astronaut Health Care System Review Committee (comprised of external experts from the behavioral health and aerospace medical communities), focused on space medicine operations at JSC.
Catastrophic accidents are usually preceded by precursory events that, although observable, are not recognized as harbingers of a tragedy until after the fact. In the nuclear industry, the Three Mile Island accident was preceded by at least two events portending the potential for severe consequences from an underappreciated causal mechanism. Anomalies whose failure mechanisms were integral to the losses of Space Transportation Systems (STS) Challenger and Columbia had been occurring within the STS fleet prior to those accidents. Both the Rogers Commission Report and the Columbia Accident Investigation Board report found that processes in place at the time did not respond to the prior anomalies in a way that shed light on their true risk implications. This includes the concern that, in the words of the NASA Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel (ASAP), "no process addresses the need to update a hazard analysis when anomalies occur" At a broader level, the ASAP noted in 2007 that NASA "could better gauge the likelihood of losses by developing leading indicators, rather than continue to depend on lagging indicators". These observations suggest a need to revalidate prior assumptions and conclusions of existing safety (and reliability) analyses, as well as to consider the potential for previously unrecognized accident scenarios, when unexpected or otherwise undesired behaviors of the system are observed. This need is also discussed in NASA's system safety handbook, which advocates a view of safety assurance as driving a program to take steps that are necessary to establish and maintain a valid and credible argument for the safety of its missions. It is the premise of this handbook that making cases for safety more experience-based allows NASA to be better informed about the safety performance of its systems, and will ultimately help it to manage safety in a more effective manner. The APA process described in this handbook provides a systematic means of analyzing candidate accident precursors by evaluating anomaly occurrences for their system safety implications and, through both analytical and deliberative methods used to project to other circumstances, identifying those that portend more serious consequences to come if effective corrective action is not taken. APA builds upon existing safety analysis processes currently in practice within NASA, leveraging their results to provide an improved understanding of overall system risk. As such, APA represents an important dimension of safety evaluation; as operational experience is acquired, precursor information is generated such that it can be fed back into system safety analyses to risk-inform safety improvements. Importantly, APA utilizes anomaly data to predict risk whereas standard reliability and PRA approaches utilize failure data which often is limited and rare.
Sea surface temperature (SST) studies are often focused on improving accuracy, or understanding and quantifying uncertainties in the measurement, as SST is a leading indicator of climate change and represents the longest time series of any ocean variable observed from space. Over the past several decades SST has been studied with the use of satellite data. This allows a larger area to be studied with much more frequent measurements being taken than direct measurements collected aboard ship or buoys. The Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) is an international project that distributes satellite derived sea surface temperatures (SST) data from multiple platforms and sensors. The goal of the project is to distribute these SSTs for operational uses such as ocean model assimilation and decision support applications, as well as support fundamental SST research and climate studies. Examples of near real time applications include hurricane and fisheries studies and numerical weather forecasting. The JPL group has produced a new 1 km daily global Level 4 SST product, the Multiscale Ultrahigh Resolution (MUR), that blends SST data from 3 distinct NASA radiometers: the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR), and the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer ? Earth Observing System(AMSRE). This new product requires further validation and accuracy assessment, especially in coastal regions.We examined the accuracy of the new MUR SST product by comparing the high resolution version and a lower resolution version that has been smoothed to 19 km (but still gridded to 1 km). Both versions were compared to the same data set of in situ buoy temperature measurements with a focus on study regions of the oceans surrounding North and Central America as well as two smaller regions around the Gulf Stream and California coast. Ocean fronts exhibit high temperature gradients (Roden, 1976), and thus satellite data of SST can be used in the detection of these fronts. In this case, accuracy is less of a concern because the primary focus is on the spatial derivative of SST. We calculated the gradients for both versions of the MUR data set and did statistical comparisons focusing on the same regions.
Estimates range from 65-90 percent of catastrophic mishaps are due to human error. NASA's human factors-related mishaps causes are estimated at approximately 75 percent. As much as we'd like to error-proof our work environment, even the most automated and complex technical endeavors require human interaction... and are vulnerable to human frailty. Industry and government are focusing not only on human factors integration into hazardous work environments, but also looking for practical approaches to cultivating a strong Safety Culture that diminishes risk. Industry and government organizations have recognized the value of monitoring leading indicators to identify potential risk vulnerabilities. NASA has adapted this approach to assess risk controls associated with hazardous, critical, and complex facilities. NASA's facility risk assessments integrate commercial loss control, OSHA (Occupational Safety and Health Administration) Process Safety, API (American Petroleum Institute) Performance Indicator Standard, and NASA Operational Readiness Inspection concepts to identify risk control vulnerabilities.