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The 2005 Amazon Drought Legacy Effect Delayed the 2006 Wet Season Onset
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Multimodel Analysis of Future Land Use and Climate Change Impacts on Ecosystem Functioning
Land use and climate changes both affect terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we used three combinations of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP1xRCP26, SSP3xRCP60, and SSP5xRCP85) as input to three dynamic global vegetation models to assess the impacts and associated uncertainty on several ecosystem functions: terrestrial carbon storage and fluxes, evapotranspiration, surface albedo, and runoff. We also performed sensitivity simulations in which we kept either land use or climate (including atmospheric CO2) constant from year 2015 on to calculate the isolated land use versus climate effects. By the 2080–2099 period, carbon storage increases by up to 87 ± 47 Gt (SSP1xRCP26) compared to present day, with large spatial variance across scenarios and models. Most of the carbon uptake is attributed to drivers beyond future land use and climate change, particularly the lagged effects of historic environmental changes. Future climate change typically increases carbon stocks in vegetation but not soils, while future land use change causes carbon losses, even for net agricultural abandonment (SSP1xRCP26). Evapotranspiration changes are highly variable across scenarios, and models do not agree on the magnitude or even sign of change of the individual effects. A calculated decrease in January and July surface albedo (up to −0.021 ± 0.007 and −0.004 ± 0.004 for SSP5xRCP85) and increase in runoff (+67 ± 6 mm/year) is largely driven by climate change. Overall, our results show that future land use and climate change will both have substantial impacts on ecosystem functioning. However, future changes can often not be fully explained by these two drivers and legacy effects have to be considered.
Capturing the Footprints of Ground Motion in the Spatial Distribution of Rainfall-Induced Landslides
The coupled effect of earthquakes and rainfall is rarely investigated in landslide susceptibility assessments although it could be crucial to predict landslide occurrences. This is even more critical in the context of early warning systems and especially in cases of extreme precipitation regimes in post-seismic conditions, where the rock masses are already damaged due to the ground shaking. Here, we investigate this concept by accounting for the legacy of seismic ground shaking in rainfall-induced landslide (RFIL) scenarios. We do this to identify whether ground shaking plays a role in the susceptibility to post-seismic rainfall-induced landslides and to identify whether this legacy effect persists through time. With this motivation, we use binary logistic regression and examine time series of landslides associated with four earthquakes occurred in Indonesia: 2012 Sulawesi (M(sub w) = 6.3), 2016 Reuleut (M(sub w) = 6.5), 2017 Kasiguncu (M(sub w) = 6.6) and 2018 Palu (M(sub w) = 7.5) earthquakes. The dataset includes one co-seismic and three post-seismic landslide inventories for each earthquake. We use the peak ground acceleration map of the last strongest earthquake in each case as a predisposing factor of landslides representing the effect of ground shaking. We observe that, at least for the study areas under consideration and in a probabilistic context, the earthquake legacy contributes to increase the post-seismic RFIL susceptibility. This positive contribution decays through time. Specifically, we observe that ground motion is a significant predisposing factor controlling the spatial distribution of RFIL in the post-seismic period 110 days after an earthquake. We also show that this effect dissipates within 3 years at most.
Multimodel Analysis of Future Land Use and Climate Change Impacts on Ecosystem Functioning
Land use and climate changes both affect terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we used three combinations of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP1xRCP26, SSP3xRCP60, and SSP5xRCP85) as input to three dynamic global vegetation models to assess the impacts and associated uncertainty on several ecosystem functions: terrestrial carbon storage and fluxes, evapotranspiration, surface albedo, and runoff. We also performed sensitivity simulations in which we kept either land use or climate (including atmospheric CO2) constant from year 2015 on to calculate the isolated land use versus climate effects. By the 2080–2099 period, carbon storage increases by up to 87 ± 47 Gt (SSP1xRCP26) compared to present day, with large spatial variance across scenarios and models. Most of the carbon uptake is attributed to drivers beyond future land use and climate change, particularly the lagged effects of historic environmental changes. Future climate change typically increases carbon stocks in vegetation but not soils, while future land use change causes carbon losses, even for net agricultural abandonment (SSP1xRCP26). Evapotranspiration changes are highly variable across scenarios, and models do not agree on the magnitude or even sign of change of the individual effects. A calculated decrease in January and July surface albedo (up to −0.021 ± 0.007 and −0.004 ± 0.004 for SSP5xRCP85) and increase in runoff (+67 ± 6 mm/year) is largely driven by climate change. Overall, our results show that future land use and climate change will both have substantial impacts on ecosystem functioning. However, future changes can often not be fully explained by these two drivers and legacy effects have to be considered.
Regional Atmospheric CO2 Inversion Reveals Seasonal and Geographic Differences in Amazon Net Biome Exchange
Understanding tropical rainforest carbon exchange and its response to heat and drought is critical for quantifying the effects of climate change on tropical ecosystems, including global climate carbon feedbacks. Of particular importance for the global carbon budget is net biome exchange of CO2 with the atmosphere (NBE), which represents nonfire carbon fluxes into and out of biomass and soils. Subannual and sub-Basin Amazon NBE estimates have relied heavily on process-based biosphere models, despite lack of model agreement with plot-scale observations. We present a new analysis of airborne measurements that reveals monthly, regional-scale (Approx.1-8 x 10(exp -6) km2) NBE variations. We develop a regional atmospheric CO2 inversion that provides the first analysis of geographic and temporal variability in Amazon biosphere-atmosphere carbon exchange and that is minimally influenced by biosphere model-based first guesses of seasonal and annual mean fluxes. We find little evidence for a clear seasonal cycle in Amazon NBE but do find NBE sensitivity to aberrations from long-term mean climate. In particular, we observe increased NBE (more carbon emitted to the atmosphere) associated with heat and drought in 2010, and correlations between wet season NBE and precipitation (negative correlation) and temperature (positive correlation). In the eastern Amazon, pulses of increased NBE persisted through 2011, suggesting legacy effects of 2010 heat and drought. We also identify regional differences in postdrought NBE that appear related to long-term water availability. We examine satellite proxies and find evidence for higher gross primary productivity (GPP) during a pulse of increased carbon uptake in 2011, and lower GPP during a period of increased NBE in the 2010 dry season drought, but links between GPP and NBE changes are not conclusive. These results provide novel evidence of NBE sensitivity to short-term temperature and moisture extremes in the Amazon, where monthly and sub-Basin estimates have not been previously available.
Land carbon models underestimate the severity and duration of drought’s impact on plant productivity
The ability to accurately predict ecosystem drought response and recovery is necessary to produce reliable forecasts of land carbon uptake and future climate. Using a suite of models from the Multi-scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project (MsTMIP), we assessed modeled net primary productivity (NPP) response to, and recovery from, drought events against a benchmark derived from tree ring observations between 1948 and 2008 across forested regions of the US and Europe. We find short lag times (0–6 months) between climate anomalies and modeled NPP response. Although models accurately simulate the direction of drought legacy effects (i.e. NPP decreases), projected effects are approximately four times shorter and four times weaker than observations suggest. This discrepancy between observed and simulated vegetation recovery from drought reveals a potential critical model deficiency. Since productivity is a crucial component of the land carbon balance, models that underestimate drought recovery time could overestimate predictions of future land carbon sink strength and, consequently, underestimate forecasts of atmospheric CO2.
A Multi-Satellite Framework to Rapidly Evaluate Extreme Biosphere Cascades: The Western US 2021 Drought and Heatwave
The increasing frequency and intensity of climate extremes and complex ecosystem responses motivate the need for integrated observational studies at low-latency to determine biosphere responses and carbon-climate feedbacks. Here, we develop a satellite-based rapid attribution workflow and demonstrate its use at a 1–2-month latency to attribute drivers of the carbon cycle feedbacks during the 2020-2021 Western US drought and heatwave. In the first half of 2021, concurrent negative photosynthesis anomalies and large positive column CO 2 anomalies were detected with satellites. Using a simple atmospheric mass balance approach, we estimate a surface carbon efflux anomaly of 132 TgC in June 2021, a magnitude corroborated 28 independently with a dynamic global vegetation model. Integrated satellite observations of hydrologic processes, representing the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum (SPAC), show that these surface carbon flux anomalies are largely due to substantial reductions in photosynthesis because of a spatially widespread moisture-deficit propagation through the SPAC between 2020 and 2021. A causal model indicates deep soil moisture stores partially drove photosynthesis, maintaining its values in 2020 and driving its declines throughout 2021. The causal model also suggests legacy effects may have amplified photosynthesis deficits in 2021 beyond the direct effects of environmental forcing. The integrated, observation framework presented here provides a valuable first assessment of a biosphere extreme response and an independent testbed for improving drought propagation and mechanisms in models. The rapid identification of extreme carbon anomalies and hotspots can also aid mitigation and adaptation decisions.
Discounting Water for Optimal Carbon Gain as a Basis of Stomatal Closure
The exchange of carbon dioxide and water vapor between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere is regulated by stomata (small pores in the leaves of plants). Unsurprisingly, environmental factors controlling the opening and closure of stomata has been sought as early as 1800. One approach, popularized in the early 1970s, is a stomatal optimization framework. This framework is based on the hypothesis that plants optimize carbon gain subject to water loss or water availability constraints. This constraint optimization problem was solved in various forms assuming instantaneous adjustments of stomatal aperture to maximize a reward function with no future foresight or legacy effects. Holtzman et al. (2024, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023av001113) offers a novel approach that can diagnose the effective timescale over which the reward function maximization must be time-integrated. The developed method thus optimizes an integrated carbon gain function but adjusted by a discount factor subject to water availability in the root zone. The discount factor considers how the plant values carbon gain to save water and its timescale can be inferred from observations because the model is analytically tractable. The results suggest that the most important climate factor that determines this discount timescale is multi-annual mean of the longest dry period during the growing season. The findings highlight how local climate traits influence the spatial variation in ecosystem-level water use strategies. This sets the stage for expanding such a framework to cases where multiple constraints act in concert while operating at distinct time scales.
Evaluation of Drogue Parachute Damping Effects Utilizing the Apollo Legacy Parachute Model
Drogue parachute damping is required to dampen the Orion Multi Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV) crew module (CM) oscillations prior to deployment of the main parachutes. During the Apollo program, drogue parachute damping was modeled on the premise that the drogue parachute force vector aligns with the resultant velocity of the parachute attach point on the CM. Equivalent Cm(sub q) and Cm(sub alpha) equations for drogue parachute damping resulting from the Apollo legacy parachute damping model premise have recently been developed. The MPCV computer simulations ANTARES and Osiris have implemented high fidelity two-body parachute damping models. However, high-fidelity model-based damping motion predictions do not match the damping observed during wind tunnel and full-scale free-flight oscillatory motion. This paper will present the methodology for comparing and contrasting the Apollo legacy parachute damping model with full-scale free-flight oscillatory motion. The analysis shows an agreement between the Apollo legacy parachute damping model and full-scale free-flight oscillatory motion.
BASS. XLV. Quantifying Active Galactic Nuclei Selection Effects in the Chandra COSMOS-legacy Survey with BASS
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Rendezvous Fiducial Implementation in A Space Vehicle Life Cycle
Rendezvous and capture of legacy satellites is significantly more challenging than rendezvous and capture of satellites prepared with servicing inter-faces. Rendezvous fiducial markers (or fiducials) are a low cost, low mass, simple but effective tool to bridge the gap between legacy and prepared satellites. This paper presents the motivation for rendezvous fiducials as well as analysis demonstrating the improvement in state estimation accuracy with fiducials on the client satellite or space object. Included herein is a review of the life cycle of rendezvous fiducials such as the incorporation into a space vehicle design and photo documentation of the pre-launch installation. Answers to key implementation questions are answered: How many fiducials? Where should they be placed? What does the eventual servicer need to know? NASA case studies from the recently launched James Webb Space Telescope and in-design Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope are included for illustration.
Managing a project's legacy: implications for organizations and project management
Organizations that rely on projects to implement their products must find effective mechanisms for propagating lessons learned on one project throughout the organization. A broad view of what constitutes a project's 'legacy' is presented that includes not just the design products and leftover parts, but new processes, relationships, technology, skills, planning data, and performance metrics. Based on research evaluating knowledge reuse in innovative contexts, this paper presents an approach to project legacy management that focuses on collecting and using legacy knowledge to promote organizational learning and effective reuse, while addressing factors of post-project responsibility, information obsolescence, and the importance of ancillary contextual information. .
Fire-induced Carbon Emissions and Regrowth Uptake in Western U.S. Forests: Documenting Variation Across Forest Types, Fire Severity, and Climate Regions
The forest area in the western United States that burns annually is increasing with warmer temperatures, more frequent droughts, and higher fuel densities. Studies that examine fire effects for regional carbon balances have tended to either focus on individual fires as examples or adopt generalizations without considering how forest type, fire severity, and regional climate influence carbon legacies. This study provides a more detailed characterization of fire effects and quantifies the full carbon impacts in relation to direct emissions, slow release of fire-killed biomass, and net carbon uptake from forest regrowth. We find important variations in fire-induced mortality and combustion across carbon pools (leaf, live wood, dead wood, litter, and duff) and across low- to high-severity classes. This corresponds to fire-induced direct emissions from 1984 to 2008 averaging 4 TgC/yr and biomass killed averaging 10.5 TgC/yr, with average burn area of 2723 sq km/yr across the western United States. These direct emission and biomass killed rates were 1.4 and 3.7 times higher, respectively, for high-severity fires than those for low-severity fires. The results show that forest regrowth varies greatly by forest type and with severity and that these factors impose a sustained carbon uptake legacy. The western U.S. fires between 1984 and 2008 imposed a net source of 12.3 TgC/yr in 2008, accounting for both direct fire emissions (9.5 TgC/yr) and heterotrophic decomposition of fire-killed biomass (6.1 TgC yr1) as well as contemporary regrowth sinks (3.3 TgC/yr). A sizeable trend exists toward increasing emissions as a larger area burns annually.
The medical legacy of Gemini.
Gemini and Mercury space flights medical results, summarizing physiological effects noted on body systems
NASA Operational Simulator for Small Satellites (NOS3)
The Simulation-to-Flight 1 (STF-1) CubeSat mission aims to demonstrate how legacy simulation technologies may be adapted for flexible and effective use on missions using the CubeSat platform. These technologies, named NASA Operational Simulator (NOS), have demonstrated significant value on several missions such as James Webb Space Telescope, Global Precipitation Measurement, Juno, and Deep Space Climate Observatory in the areas of software development, mission operationstraining, verification and validation (VV), test procedure development and software systems check-out. STF-1 will demonstrate a highly portable simulation and test platform that allows seamless transition of mission development artifacts to flight products. This environment will decrease development time of future CubeSat missions by lessening the dependency on hardware resources. In addition, through a partnership between NASA GSFC, the West Virginia Space Grant Consortium and West Virginia University, the STF-1 CubeSat will hosts payloads for three secondary objectives that aim to advance engineering and physical-science research in the areas of navigation systems of small satellites, provide useful data for understanding magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling and space weather, and verify the performance and durability of III-V Nitride-based materials.
Simulation-To-Flight (STF-1): A Mission to Enable CubeSat Software-Based Validation and Verification
The Simulation-to-Flight 1 (STF-1) CubeSat mission aims to demonstrate how legacy simulation technologies may be adapted for flexible and effective use on missions using the CubeSat platform. These technologies, named NASA Operational Simulator (NOS), have demonstrated significant value on several missions such as James Webb Space Telescope, Global Precipitation Measurement, Juno, and Deep Space Climate Observatory in the areas of software development, mission operations/training, verification and validation (V&V), test procedure development and software systems check-out. STF-1 will demonstrate a highly portable simulation and test platform that allows seamless transition of mission development artifacts to flight products. This environment will decrease development time of future CubeSat missions by lessening the dependency on hardware resources. In addition, through a partnership between NASA GSFC, the West Virginia Space Grant Consortium and West Virginia University, the STF-1 CubeSat will hosts payloads for three secondary objectives that aim to advance engineering and physical-science research in the areas of navigation systems of small satellites, provide useful data for understanding magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling and space weather, and verify the performance and durability of III-V Nitride-based materials.
Global Energy Issues and Alternate Fueling
This viewgraph presentation describes world energy issues and alternate fueling effects on aircraft design. The contents include: 1) US Uses about 100 Quad/year (1 Q = 10(exp 15) Btu) World Energy Use: about 433 Q/yr; 2) US Renewable Energy about 6%; 3) Nuclear Could Grow: Has Legacy Problems; 4) Energy Sources Primarily NonRenewable Hydrocarbon; 5) Notes; 6) Alternate Fuels Effect Aircraft Design; 7) Conventional-Biomass Issue - Food or Fuel; 8) Alternate fuels must be environmentally benign; 9) World Carbon (CO2) Emissions Problem; 10) Jim Hansen s Global Warming Warnings; 11) Gas Hydrates (Clathrates), Solar & Biomass Locations; 12) Global Energy Sector Response; 13) Alternative Renewables; 14) Stratospheric Sulfur Injection Global Cooling Switch; 15) Potential Global Energy Sector Response; and 16) New Sealing and Fluid Flow Challenges.