Logistics in transition to life cycle economics in the 1970's.
Logistics resource development and approaches to life cycle economics in 1970s
SYSTEMS DESIGN↗
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A life cycle cost economics model for projects with uniformly varying operating costs
A mathematical model is developed for calculating the life cycle costs for a project where the operating costs increase or decrease in a linear manner with time. The life cycle cost is shown to be a function of the investment costs, initial operating costs, operating cost gradient, project life time, interest rate for capital and salvage value. The results show that the life cycle cost for a project can be grossly underestimated (or overestimated) if the operating costs increase (or decrease) uniformly over time rather than being constant as is often assumed in project economic evaluations. The following range of variables is examined: (1) project life from 2 to 30 years; (2) interest rate from 0 to 15 percent per year; and (3) operating cost gradient from 5 to 90 percent of the initial operating costs. A numerical example plus tables and graphs is given to help calculate project life cycle costs over a wide range of variables.
Remer, D. S.↗
A life cycle cost economics model for automation projects with uniformly varying operating costs
The described mathematical model calculates life-cycle costs for projects with operating costs increasing or decreasing linearly with time. The cost factors involved in the life-cycle cost are considered, and the errors resulting from the assumption of constant rather than uniformly varying operating costs are examined. Parameters in the study range from 2 to 30 years, for project life; 0 to 15% per year, for interest rate; and 5 to 90% of the initial operating cost, for the operating cost gradient. A numerical example is presented.
Remer, D. S.↗
Design solutions for the solar cell interconnect fatigue fracture problem
Mechanical fatigue of solar cell interconnects is a major failure mechanism in photovoltaic arrays. A comprehensive approach to the reliability design of interconnects, together with extensive design data for the fatigue properties of copper interconnects, has been published. This paper extends the previous work, developing failure prediction (fatigue) data for additional interconnect material choices, including aluminum and a variety of copper-Invar and copper-steel claddings. An improved global fatigue function is used to model the probability-of-failure statistics of each material as a function of level and number of cycles of applied strain. Life-cycle economic analyses are used to evaluate the relative merits of each material choce. The copper-Invar clad composites demonstrate superior performance over pure copper. Aluminum results are disappointing.
Mon, G. R.↗
Communications satellites in non-geostationary orbits
The design of a satellite communications system in an orbit lower than GEO is described. Two sun-synchronous orbits which lie in the equatorial plane have been selected: (1) the apogee at constant time-of-day equatorial orbit, a highly eccentric orbit with five revolutions per day, which allows 77-135 percent more satellite mass to be placed in orbit than for GEO; and (2) the sun-synchronous 12-hour equatorial orbit, a circular orbit with two revolutions per day, which allows 23-29 percent more mass. The results of a life cycle economic analysis illustrate that nongeostationary satellite systems could be competitive with geostationary satellite systems.
Price, Kent M.↗
A users' guide to the trace contaminant control simulation computer program
The Trace Contaminant Control Simulation computer program is a tool for assessing the performance of various trace contaminant control technologies for removing trace chemical contamination from a spacecraft cabin atmosphere. The results obtained from the program can be useful in assessing different technology combinations, system sizing, system location with respect to other life support systems, and the overall life cycle economics of a trace contaminant control system. The user's manual is extracted in its entirety from NASA TM-108409 to provide a stand-alone reference for using any version of the program. The first publication of the manual as part of TM-108409 also included a detailed listing of version 8.0 of the program. As changes to the code were necessary, it became apparent that the user's manual should be separate from the computer code documentation and be general enough to provide guidance in using any version of the program. Provided in the guide are tips for input file preparation, general program execution, and output file manipulation. Information concerning source code listings of the latest version of the computer program may be obtained by contacting the author.
Perry, J. L.↗
The Problem of Size in Robust Design
To facilitate the effective solution of multidisciplinary, multiobjective complex design problems, a departure from the traditional parametric design analysis and single objective optimization approaches is necessary in the preliminary stages of design. A necessary tradeoff becomes one of efficiency vs. accuracy as approximate models are sought to allow fast analysis and effective exploration of a preliminary design space. In this paper we apply a general robust design approach for efficient and comprehensive preliminary design to a large complex system: a high speed civil transport (HSCT) aircraft. Specifically, we investigate the HSCT wing configuration design, incorporating life cycle economic uncertainties to identify economically robust solutions. The approach is built on the foundation of statistical experimentation and modeling techniques and robust design principles, and is specialized through incorporation of the compromise Decision Support Problem for multiobjective design. For large problems however, as in the HSCT example, this robust design approach developed for efficient and comprehensive design breaks down with the problem of size - combinatorial explosion in experimentation and model building with number of variables -and both efficiency and accuracy are sacrificed. Our focus in this paper is on identifying and discussing the implications and open issues associated with the problem of size for the preliminary design of large complex systems.
Koch, Patrick N.↗
Modeling Geometric Arrangements of TiO2-Based Catalyst Substrates and Isotropic Light Sources to Enhance the Efficiency of a Photocatalystic Oxidation (PCO) Reactor
The closed confined environments of the ISS, as well as in future spacecraft for exploration beyond LEO, provide many challenges to crew health. One such challenge is the availability of a robust, energy efficient, and re-generable air revitalization system that controls trace volatile organic contaminants (VOCs) to levels below a specified spacecraft maximum allowable concentration (SMAC). Photocatalytic oxidation (PCO), which is capable of mineralizing VOCs at room temperature and of accommodating a high volumetric flow, is being evaluated as an alternative trace contaminant control technology. In an architecture of a combined air and water management system, placing a PCO unit before a condensing heat exchanger for humidity control will greatly reduce the organic load into the humidity condensate loop ofthe water processing assembly (WPA) thereby enhancing the life cycle economics ofthe WPA. This targeted application dictates a single pass efficiency of greater than 90% for polar VOCs. ~ Although this target was met in laboratory bench-scaled reactors, no commercial or SBIR-developed prototype PCO units examined to date have achieved this goal. Furthermore, the formation of partial oxidation products (e.g., acetaldehyde) was not eliminated. It is known that single pass efficiency and partial oxidation are strongly dependent upon the contact time and catalyst illumination, hence the requirement for an efficient reactor design. The objective of this study is to maximize the apparent contact time and illuminated catalyst surface area at a given reactor volume and volumetric flow. In this study, a Ti02-based photocatalyst is assumed to be immobilized on porous substrate panels and illumination derived from linear isotropic light sources. Mathematical modeling using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analyses were performed to investigate the effect of: 1) the geometry and configuration of catalyst-coated substrate panels, 2) porosity of the supporting substrate, and 3) varying the light source and spacing on contact time and illuminated catalyst area.
Richards, Jeffrey T.↗
Systems engineering and integration: Cost estimation and benefits analysis
Space Transportation Avionics hardware and software cost has traditionally been estimated in Phase A and B using cost techniques which predict cost as a function of various cost predictive variables such as weight, lines of code, functions to be performed, quantities of test hardware, quantities of flight hardware, design and development heritage, complexity, etc. The output of such analyses has been life cycle costs, economic benefits and related data. The major objectives of Cost Estimation and Benefits analysis are twofold: (1) to play a role in the evaluation of potential new space transportation avionics technologies, and (2) to benefit from emerging technological innovations. Both aspects of cost estimation and technology are discussed here. The role of cost analysis in the evaluation of potential technologies should be one of offering additional quantitative and qualitative information to aid decision-making. The cost analyses process needs to be fully integrated into the design process in such a way that cost trades, optimizations and sensitivities are understood. Current hardware cost models tend to primarily use weights, functional specifications, quantities, design heritage and complexity as metrics to predict cost. Software models mostly use functionality, volume of code, heritage and complexity as cost descriptive variables. Basic research needs to be initiated to develop metrics more responsive to the trades which are required for future launch vehicle avionics systems. These would include cost estimating capabilities that are sensitive to technological innovations such as improved materials and fabrication processes, computer aided design and manufacturing, self checkout and many others. In addition to basic cost estimating improvements, the process must be sensitive to the fact that no cost estimate can be quoted without also quoting a confidence associated with the estimate. In order to achieve this, better cost risk evaluation techniques are needed as well as improved usage of risk data by decision-makers. More and better ways to display and communicate cost and cost risk to management are required.
Dean, ED↗
Advanced Durability and Damage Tolerance Design and Analysis Methods for Composite Structures: Lessons Learned from NASA Technology Development Programs
Aerospace vehicles are designed to be durable and damage tolerant. Durability is largely an economic life-cycle design consideration whereas damage tolerance directly addresses the structural airworthiness (safety) of the vehicle. However, both durability and damage tolerance design methodologies must address the deleterious effects of changes in material properties and the initiation and growth of microstructural damage that may occur during the service lifetime of the vehicle. Durability and damage tolerance design and certification requirements are addressed for commercial transport aircraft and NASA manned spacecraft systems. The state-of-the-art in advanced design and analysis methods is illustrated by discussing the results of several recently completed NASA technology development programs. These programs include the NASA Advanced Subsonic Technology Program demonstrating technologies for large transport aircraft and the X-33 hypersonic test vehicle demonstrating technologies for a single-stage-to-orbit space launch vehicle.
Harris, Charles E.↗
Recent Advances in Durability and Damage Tolerance Methodology at NASA Langley Research Center
Durability and damage tolerance (D&DT) issues are critical to the development of lighter, safer and more efficient aerospace vehicles. Durability is largely an economic life-cycle design consideration whereas damage tolerance directly addresses the structural airworthiness (safety) of the vehicle. Both D&DT methodologies must address the deleterious effects of changes in material properties and the initiation and growth of damage that may occur during the vehicle s service lifetime. The result of unanticipated D&DT response is often manifested in the form of catastrophic and potentially fatal accidents. As such, durability and damage tolerance requirements must be rigorously addressed for commercial transport aircraft and NASA spacecraft systems. This paper presents an overview of the recent and planned future research in durability and damage tolerance analytical and experimental methods for both metallic and composite aerospace structures at NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC).
Ransom, J. B.↗
Leveraging Terrestrial Industry for Utilization of Space Resources
NASA's Journey to Mars: Pioneering Next Steps in Space Exploration released in October of 2015 states that NASA is working toward the capability to work, operate, and sustainably live safely beyond Earth. To progress from our current "Earth-Reliant" approach to exploration and eventually become "Earth Independent", we need to first identify resources in space and then learn to use and harvest them to minimize logistics from Earth, reduce costs, and enable sustainable and affordable space transportation and surface operations. Known as In Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU), the collection and conversion of space resources into products such as propellants, fuel cell reactants, and life support consumables can greatly reduce the mass, cost, and risk of space exploration. Also, the ability to perform civil engineering, construction, and manufacturing at sites of exploration can also allow for increased crew safety and sustainable growth in critical infrastructure. Much of what NASA wants to do on the Moon and Mars with respect to harnessing and utilizing space resources has been performed and perfected on Earth over the centuries. While minimizing mass and operating in the vacuum of space may be unique challenges to NASA, both terrestrial industry and NASA face many of the same challenges associated with operating in severe environments, minimizing maintenance and logistics, maximizing performance per unit mass and volume, performing remote and autonomous operations, and integrating hardware from many vendors and countries. In the end, both NASA and terrestrial industry need to obtain a return on the investment for the development and deployment of these capabilities. This paper will first examine what is ISRU and what are the space resources of interest. The paper will than discuss what are NASA's approach, life cycle, and economic considerations for implementing ISRU. The paper will outline the site and infrastructure needs associated with a phased implementation of ISRU into human missions to the Moon and Mars. The paper will than assess what technologies and operations from terrestrial industries are relevant and synergistic with ISRU (from prospecting to product storage), and what challenges and similarities between the two can be exploited. Lastly, the paper will end with a discussion on where do we go from here for industry and NASA to collaborate.
Sanders, Gerald B.↗
Fabrication Method, Characteristics and Applications of Cellulose Nano Fiber (CNF) Film
Petroleum-based polymer materials have been extensively developed owing to their low cost, easy formability, low weight, and corrosion resistance. Beyond the performance and economic aspects, life cycle assessment is also important requiring a plan for reuse, recycling or disposal. Disposal requires a short composting time, but most petroleum-based materials take many years to compost, some not breaking down even after centuries. One approach to more environmentally compatible materials involves harnessing natural materials like wood and bone. These natural materials (whether naturally or artificially produced) are inherently renewable, not requiring the millions of years of fossilization necessary to produce petroleum-based materials.
Duzik, Adam↗
Computer programs for estimating civil aircraft economics
Computer programs for calculating airline direct operating cost, indirect operating cost, and return on investment were developed to provide a means for determining commercial aircraft life cycle cost and economic performance. A representative wide body subsonic jet aircraft was evaluated to illustrate use of the programs.
Maddalon, D. V.↗
FBI fingerprint identification automation study. AIDS 3 evaluation report. Volume 4: Economic feasibility
The results of the economic analysis of the AIDS 3 system design are presented. AIDS 3 evaluated a set of economic feasibility measures including life cycle cost, implementation cost, annual operating expenditures and annual capital expenditures. The economic feasibility of AIDS 3 was determined by comparing the evaluated measures with the same measures, where applicable, evaluated for the current system. A set of future work load scenarios was constructed using JPL's environmental evaluation study of the fingerprint identification system. AIDS 3 and the current system were evaluated for each of the economic feasibility measures for each of the work load scenarios. They were compared for a set of performance measures, including response time and accuracy, and for a set of cost/benefit ratios, including cost per transaction and cost per technical search. Benefit measures related to the economic feasibility of the system are also presented, including the required number of employees and the required employee skill mix.
Mulhall, B. D. L.↗
A study of characteristics of intercity transportation systems. Phase 1: Definition of transportation comparison methodology
Decision making in early transportation planning must be responsive to complex value systems representing various policies and objectives. The assessment of alternative transportation concepts during the early initial phases of the system life cycle, when supportive research and technology development activities are defined, requires estimates of transportation, environmental, and socio-economic impacts throughout the system life cycle, which is a period of some 40 or 50 years. A unified methodological framework for comparing intercity passenger and freight transportation systems is described and is extended to include the comparison of long term transportation trends arising from implementation of the various R & D programs. The attributes of existing and future transportation systems are reviewed in order to establish measures for comparison, define value functions, and attribute weightings needed for comparing alternative policy actions for furthering transportation goals. Comparison criteria definitions and an illustrative example are included.
English, J. M.↗
Reliability Research for Photovoltaic Modules
Report describes research approach used to improve reliability of photovoltaic modules. Aimed at raising useful module lifetime to 20 to 30 years. Development of cost-effective solutions to module-lifetime problem requires compromises between degradation rates, failure rates, and lifetimes, on one hand, and costs of initial manufacture, maintenance, and lost energy, on other hand. Life-cycle costing integrates disparate economic terms, allowing cost effectiveness to be quantified, allowing comparison of different design alternatives.
Ross, Ronald J., Jr.↗
Standards for space automation and robotics
The AIAA's Committee on Standards for Space Automation and Robotics (COS/SAR) is charged with the identification of key functions and critical technologies applicable to multiple missions that reflect fundamental consideration of environmental factors. COS/SAR's standards/practices/guidelines implementation methods will be based on reliability, performance, and operations, as well as economic viability and life-cycle costs, simplicity, and modularity.
Kader, Jac B.↗