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NASA NTRS2005

Second NASA Technical Interchange Meeting (TIM): Advanced Technology Lifecycle Analysis System (ATLAS) Technology Tool Box (TTB)

The Advanced Technology Lifecycle Analysis System (ATLAS), a spreadsheet analysis tool suite, applies parametric equations for sizing and lifecycle cost estimation. Performance, operation, and programmatic data used by the equations come from a Technology Tool Box (TTB) database. In this second TTB Technical Interchange Meeting (TIM), technologists, system model developers, and architecture analysts discussed methods for modeling technology decisions in spreadsheet models, identified specific technology parameters, and defined detailed development requirements. This Conference Publication captures the consensus of the discussions and provides narrative explanations of the tool suite, the database, and applications of ATLAS within NASA s changing environment.

ONeil, D. A.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Advanced Technology Lifecycle Analysis System (ATLAS) Technology Tool Box (TTB)

The Advanced Technology Lifecycle Analysis System (ATLAS) is a decision support tool designed to aid program managers and strategic planners in determining how to invest technology research and development dollars. It is an Excel-based modeling package that allows a user to build complex space architectures and evaluate the impact of various technology choices. ATLAS contains system models, cost and operations models, a campaign timeline and a centralized technology database. Technology data for all system models is drawn from a common database, the ATLAS Technology Tool Box (TTB). The TTB provides a comprehensive, architecture-independent technology database that is keyed to current and future timeframes.

Doyle, Monica↗

NASA NTRS2004

Advanced Technology Lifecycle Analysis System (ATLAS)

Developing credible mass and cost estimates for space exploration and development architectures require multidisciplinary analysis based on physics calculations, and parametric estimates derived from historical systems. Within the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), concurrent engineering environment (CEE) activities integrate discipline oriented analysis tools through a computer network and accumulate the results of a multidisciplinary analysis team via a centralized database or spreadsheet Each minute of a design and analysis study within a concurrent engineering environment is expensive due the size of the team and supporting equipment The Advanced Technology Lifecycle Analysis System (ATLAS) reduces the cost of architecture analysis by capturing the knowledge of discipline experts into system oriented spreadsheet models. A framework with a user interface presents a library of system models to an architecture analyst. The analyst selects models of launchers, in-space transportation systems, and excursion vehicles, as well as space and surface infrastructure such as propellant depots, habitats, and solar power satellites. After assembling the architecture from the selected models, the analyst can create a campaign comprised of missions spanning several years. The ATLAS controller passes analyst specified parameters to the models and data among the models. An integrator workbook calls a history based parametric analysis cost model to determine the costs. Also, the integrator estimates the flight rates, launched masses, and architecture benefits over the years of the campaign. An accumulator workbook presents the analytical results in a series of bar graphs. In no way does ATLAS compete with a CEE; instead, ATLAS complements a CEE by ensuring that the time of the experts is well spent Using ATLAS, an architecture analyst can perform technology sensitivity analysis, study many scenarios, and see the impact of design decisions. When the analyst is satisfied with the system configurations, technology portfolios, and deployment strategies, he or she can present the concepts to a team, which will conduct a detailed, discipline-oriented analysis within a CEE. An analog to this approach is the music industry where a songwriter creates the lyrics and music before entering a recording studio.

O'Neil, Daniel A.↗

NASA NTRS2005

NASA Technical Interchange Meeting (TIM): Advanced Technology Lifecycle Analysis System (ATLAS) Technology Tool Box

The objective of this Technical Interchange Meeting was to increase the quantity and quality of technical, cost, and programmatic data used to model the impact of investing in different technologies. The focus of this meeting was the Technology Tool Box (TTB), a database of performance, operations, and programmatic parameters provided by technologists and used by systems engineers. The TTB is the data repository used by a system of models known as the Advanced Technology Lifecycle Analysis System (ATLAS). This report describes the result of the November meeting, and also provides background information on ATLAS and the TTB.

ONeil, D. A.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Propulsion Technology Lifecycle Operational Analysis

The paper presents the results of a focused effort performed by the members of the Space Propulsion Synergy Team (SPST) Functional Requirements Sub-team to develop propulsion data to support Advanced Technology Lifecycle Analysis System (ATLAS). This is a spreadsheet application to analyze the impact of technology decisions at a system-of-systems level. Results are summarized in an Excel workbook we call the Technology Tool Box (TTB). The TTB provides data for technology performance, operations, and programmatic parameters in the form of a library of technical information to support analysis tools and/or models. The lifecycle of technologies can be analyzed from this data and particularly useful for system operations involving long running missions. The propulsion technologies in this paper are listed against Chemical Rocket Engines in a Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) format. The overall effort involved establishing four elements: (1) A general purpose Functional System Breakdown Structure (FSBS). (2) Operational Requirements for Rocket Engines. (3) Technology Metric Values associated with Operating Systems (4) Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) of Chemical Rocket Engines The list of Chemical Rocket Engines identified in the WBS is by no means complete. It is planned to update the TTB with a more complete list of available Chemical Rocket Engines for United States (US) engines and add the Foreign rocket engines to the WBS which are available to NASA and the Aerospace Industry. The Operational Technology Metric Values were derived by the SPST Sub-team in the form of the TTB and establishes a database for users to help evaluate and establish the technology level of each Chemical Rocket Engine in the database. The Technology Metric Values will serve as a guide to help determine which rocket engine to invest technology money in for future development.

Robinson, John W.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Sizing and Lifecycle Cost Analysis of an Ares V Composite Interstage

The Interstage Element of the Ares V launch vehicle was sized using a commercially available structural sizing software tool. Two different concepts were considered, a metallic design and a composite design. Both concepts were sized using similar levels of analysis fidelity and included the influence of design details on each concept. Additionally, the impact of the different manufacturing techniques and failure mechanisms for composite and metallic construction were considered. Significant details were included in analysis models of each concept, including penetrations for human access, joint connections, as well as secondary loading effects. The designs and results of the analysis were used to determine lifecycle cost estimates for the two Interstage designs. Lifecycle cost estimates were based on industry provided cost data for similar launch vehicle components. The results indicated that significant mass as well as cost savings are attainable for the chosen composite concept as compared with a metallic option.

Mann, Troy↗

NASA NTRS2006

System Architecture Modeling for Technology Portfolio Management using ATLAS

Strategic planners and technology portfolio managers have traditionally relied on consensus-based tools, such as Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Quality Function Deployment (QFD) in planning the funding of technology development. While useful to a certain extent, these tools are limited in the ability to fully quantify the impact of a technology choice on system mass, system reliability, project schedule, and lifecycle cost. The Advanced Technology Lifecycle Analysis System (ATLAS) aims to provide strategic planners a decision support tool for analyzing technology selections within a Space Exploration Architecture (SEA). Using ATLAS, strategic planners can select physics-based system models from a library, configure the systems with technologies and performance parameters, and plan the deployment of a SEA. Key parameters for current and future technologies have been collected from subject-matter experts and other documented sources in the Technology Tool Box (TTB). ATLAS can be used to compare the technical feasibility and economic viability of a set of technology choices for one SEA, and compare it against another set of technology choices or another SEA. System architecture modeling in ATLAS is a multi-step process. First, the modeler defines the system level requirements. Second, the modeler identifies technologies of interest whose impact on an SEA. Third, the system modeling team creates models of architecture elements (e.g. launch vehicles, in-space transfer vehicles, crew vehicles) if they are not already in the model library. Finally, the architecture modeler develops a script for the ATLAS tool to run, and the results for comparison are generated.

Thompson, Robert W.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Automated Tracking of Shallow Cu Growth Rates on Geostationary Imagery and Linkages to Cloud Organization

Shallow moist convection is ubiquitous throughout the tropics and represents a key player in boundary layer processes. Common tropical cloud features, such as convective rolls and cold pool fronts, form and persist for different periods within environments that support such development. Determining differences in lifecycle amongst these features in varying environments requires viewing their evolution from initiation to decay. Geostationary satellites provide a means to follow the clouds with enhanced spatiotemporal sampling from space. We apply a cloud-tracking tool to study lifecycle properties of shallow cumulus sampled during the NASA Cloud, Aerosol, and Monsoon Processes Philippines Experiment (CAMP2Ex) field campaign of 2019. The mission conducted airborne and shipborne operations over the West Pacific Ocean, in tandem with Rapid Scan imagery from the Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI) on the Japan Meteorological Agency’s (JMA) Himawari-8 satellite. Shallow cumulus was segmented on AHI 0.5-km visible reflectance and tracked during the daylit hours of several research flights that exhibited ideal atmospheric conditions for tracking. The resulting cloud tracks were collected according to regions containing airborne sampling of individual clouds at various stages of their lifecycles, yielding ensembles of tracks in separate environments. We present an analysis on lifecycle properties extracted from the cloud-track ensembles and their potential connections to cloud organizations observed throughout CAMP2Ex. Each ensemble is evaluated by calculating cloud-layer growth rates and comparing to spatial parameters, including track-achieved area and cloud-top height. The apparent clustering of growth rates for specific ensembles is then compared against overall cloud organizations, such as isolated congestus and cold pool fronts, that are observed with the airborne data. Finally, we consider how such differences in cloud growth appear in the airborne radar observations of intercepted cloud tracks.

Cloud Tracking↗

NASA NTRS2006

Fusing Quantitative Requirements Analysis with Model-based Systems Engineering

A vision is presented for fusing quantitative requirements analysis with model-based systems engineering. This vision draws upon and combines emergent themes in the engineering milieu. "Requirements engineering" provides means to explicitly represent requirements (both functional and non-functional) as constraints and preferences on acceptable solutions, and emphasizes early-lifecycle review, analysis and verification of design and development plans. "Design by shopping" emphasizes revealing the space of options available from which to choose (without presuming that all selection criteria have previously been elicited), and provides means to make understandable the range of choices and their ramifications. "Model-based engineering" emphasizes the goal of utilizing a formal representation of all aspects of system design, from development through operations, and provides powerful tool suites that support the practical application of these principles. A first step prototype towards this vision is described, embodying the key capabilities. Illustrations, implications, further challenges and opportunities are outlined.

optimization↗

NASA NTRS2008

Constellation Program Life-cycle Cost Analysis Model (LCAM)

The Constellation Program (CxP) is NASA's effort to replace the Space Shuttle, return humans to the moon, and prepare for a human mission to Mars. The major elements of the Constellation Lunar sortie design reference mission architecture are shown. Unlike the Apollo Program of the 1960's, affordability is a major concern of United States policy makers and NASA management. To measure Constellation affordability, a total ownership cost life-cycle parametric cost estimating capability is required. This capability is being developed by the Constellation Systems Engineering and Integration (SE&I) Directorate, and is called the Lifecycle Cost Analysis Model (LCAM). The requirements for LCAM are based on the need to have a parametric estimating capability in order to do top-level program analysis, evaluate design alternatives, and explore options for future systems. By estimating the total cost of ownership within the context of the planned Constellation budget, LCAM can provide Program and NASA management with the cost data necessary to identify the most affordable alternatives. LCAM is also a key component of the Integrated Program Model (IPM), an SE&I developed capability that combines parametric sizing tools with cost, schedule, and risk models to perform program analysis. LCAM is used in the generation of cost estimates for system level trades and analyses. It draws upon the legacy of previous architecture level cost models, such as the Exploration Systems Mission Directorate (ESMD) Architecture Cost Model (ARCOM) developed for Simulation Based Acquisition (SBA), and ATLAS. LCAM is used to support requirements and design trade studies by calculating changes in cost relative to a baseline option cost. Estimated costs are generally low fidelity to accommodate available input data and available cost estimating relationships (CERs). LCAM is capable of interfacing with the Integrated Program Model to provide the cost estimating capability for that suite of tools.

Prince, Andy↗

NASA NTRS2009

A 20 Year Lifecycle Study for Launch Facilities at the Kennedy Space Center

The lifecycle cost analysis was based on corrosion costs for the Kennedy Space Center's Launch Complexes and Mobile Launch Platforms. The first step in the study involved identifying the relevant assets that would be included. Secondly, the identification and collection of the corrosion control cost data for the selected assets was completed. Corrosion control costs were separated into four categories. The sources of cost included the NASA labor for civil servant personnel directly involved in overseeing and managing corrosion control of the assets, United Space Alliance (USA) contractual requirements for performing planned corrosion control tasks, USA performance of unplanned corrosion control tasks, and Testing and Development. Corrosion control operations performed under USA contractual requirements were the most significant contributors to the total cost of corrosion. The operations include the inspection of the pad, routine maintenance of the pad, medium and large scale blasting and repainting activities, and the repair and replacement of structural metal elements. Cost data was collected from the years between 2001 and 2007. These costs were then extrapolated to future years to calculate the 20 year lifecycle costs.

Kolody, Mark R.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Space-based laser-powered orbital transfer vehicle (Project SLICK)

The project SLICK (Space Laser Interorbital Cargo Kite) involves conceptual designs of reusable space-based laser-powered orbital transfer vehicle (LOTV) for ferrying 16,000 kg cargo primarily between low Earth orbit (LEO) and geosynchronous earth orbit (GEO). The power of LOTV is beamed by a single 32-MW solar-pumped iodide laser orbiting the Earth at an altitude of one Earth radius. The laser engine selected for the LOTV is based on a continuous-wave, steady-state propulsion scheme and uses an array of seven discrete plasmas in a flow of hydrogen propellant. Both all-propulsive and aerobraked LOTV configurations were analyzed and developed. The all-propulsive vehicle uses a rigid 11.5-m aperture primary mirror and its engine produces a thrust of 2000 N at a specific impulse of 1500 sec. For the LEO-to-GEO trip, the payload ratio, m(sub payload/m(sub propellant)+m(sub dry vehicle) = 1.19 and the trip time is about 6 days. The aerobraked version uses a lightweight, retractable wrapped-rib primary mirror which is folded for aerobraking and a 20-m-diameter inflatable-ballute aeroshield which is jettisoned after aeromaneuver. Lifecycle cost analysis shows that the aerobraked configuration may have an economic advantage over the all-propulsive configuration as long as the cost of launching the propellant to LEO is higher than about $500/kg in current dollars.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2022

Advanced Statistical Methods in Spacecraft Flight Software Cost Estimation: Bayesian Regression and Nonlinear Principal Components Analysis to Support System Engineering in the Early Project Lifecycle

This paper provides an overview of the new features and model updates in the upcoming release of the NASA Analogy Software Cost Tool (ASCoT). ASCoT, hosted within the Online NASA Space Estimation Tools (ONSET) on the One NASA Cost Engineering (ONCE) Database, is a web-based tool that provides a suite of estimation tools to support early lifecycle NASA flight software cost analysis. In addition to the traditional parametric flight software costing method COCOMO II, ASCoT contains a Bayesian linear regression to predict total flight software development cost as a function of total spacecraft cost, as well as four analogic methods: k-Nearest Neighbors (kNN) and Clustering models to predict Effort (in work-months) and total source lines of code (SLOC). These methods are designed to work primarily with system-level inputs such as mission type (orbiter, lander, etc.), mission destination (Earth, Inner Planetary, etc.), and the number of instruments and deployables. Nonlinear principal components analysis (NLPCA) is performed to find the principal features of the data composed of both categorical and numerical variables and is necessary prior to defining our analogic methods. Sensitivity analyses and in- and out-of-sample model performance results are presented for the Bayesian CER and the analogic models.

Johnson, James K.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Linking Science Analysis with Observation Planning: A Full Circle Data Lifecycle

A clear goal of the Virtual Observatory (VO) is to enable new science through analysis of integrated astronomical archives. An additional and powerful possibility of the VO is to link and integrate these new analyses with planning of new observations. By providing tools that can be used for observation planning in the VO, the VO will allow the data lifecycle to come full circle: from theory to observations to data and back around to new theories and new observations. The Scientist's Expert Assistant (SEA) Simulation Facility (SSF) is working to combine the ability to access existing archives with the ability to model and visualize new observations. Integrating the two will allow astronomers to better use the integrated archives of the VO to plan and predict the success of potential new observations more efficiently, The full circle lifecycle enabled by SEA can allow astronomers to make substantial leaps in the quality of data and science returns on new observations. Our paper examines the exciting potential of integrating archival analysis with new observation planning, such as performing data calibration analysis on archival images and using that analysis to predict the success of new observations, or performing dynamic signal-to-noise analysis combining historical results with modeling of new instruments or targets. We will also describe how the development of the SSF is progressing and what have been its successes and challenges.

Grosvenor, Sandy↗

NASA NTRS2001

Linking Science Analysis with Observation Planning: A Full Circle Data Lifecycle

A clear goal of the Virtual Observatory (VO) is to enable new science through analysis of integrated astronomical archives. An additional and powerful possibility of the VO is to link and integrate these new analyses with planning of new observations. By providing tools that can be used for observation planning in the VO, the VO will allow the data lifecycle to come full circle: from theory to observations to data and back around to new theories and new observations. The Scientist's Expert Assistant (SEA) Simulation Facility (SSF) is working to combine the ability to access existing archives with the ability to model and visualize new observations. Integrating the two will allow astronomers to better use the integrated archives of the VO to plan and predict the success of potential new observations. The full circle lifecycle enabled by SEA can allow astronomers to make substantial leaps in the quality of data and science returns on new observations. Our paper will examine the exciting potential of integrating archival analysis with new observation planning, such as performing data calibration analysis on archival images and using that analysis to predict the success of new observations, or performing dynamic signal-to-noise analysis combining historical results with modeling of new instruments or targets. We will also describe how the development of the SSF is progressing and what has been its successes and challenges.

Jones, Jeremy↗

NASA NTRS2006

State Analysis Database Tool

The State Analysis Database Tool software establishes a productive environment for collaboration among software and system engineers engaged in the development of complex interacting systems. The tool embodies State Analysis, a model-based system engineering methodology founded on a state-based control architecture (see figure). A state represents a momentary condition of an evolving system, and a model may describe how a state evolves and is affected by other states. The State Analysis methodology is a process for capturing system and software requirements in the form of explicit models and states, and defining goal-based operational plans consistent with the models. Requirements, models, and operational concerns have traditionally been documented in a variety of system engineering artifacts that address different aspects of a mission s lifecycle. In State Analysis, requirements, models, and operations information are State Analysis artifacts that are consistent and stored in a State Analysis Database. The tool includes a back-end database, a multi-platform front-end client, and Web-based administrative functions. The tool is structured to prompt an engineer to follow the State Analysis methodology, to encourage state discovery and model description, and to make software requirements and operations plans consistent with model descriptions.

Rasmussen, Robert↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Satellite Tracking of Shallow Cumulus during CAMP2Ex: The Aerosol and Organization Connection

Shallow moist convection is ubiquitous throughout the tropics and represents a key player in boundary layer processes. Shallow clouds come in many forms, from scattered, short-lived cumulus to organized features that include cold pool boundaries and lines reaching O(100 km) scale lasting several hours. In this study, we explore how cloud morphology and environmental aerosol affect shallow cumulus lifecycle properties. Measuring such influences requires a broad, detailed view of these cloud fields as they grow and decay. Geostationary satellites provide a means to follow the clouds with enhanced spatiotemporal sampling from space. We apply a cloud-tracking tool to study lifecycle properties of shallow cumulus sampled during the NASA Cloud, Aerosol, and Monsoon Processes Philippines Experiment (CAMP2Ex) field campaign of 2019. The mission conducted airborne and shipborne operations over the West Pacific Ocean, in tandem with Rapid Scan imagery from the Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI) on the Japan Meteorological Agency’s (JMA) Himawari-8 satellite. We segment shallow cumulus on AHI 0.5-km visible reflectance during the daylit hours of several research flights that exhibited ideal atmospheric conditions for tracking. We collect the resulting cloud tracks by regions containing airborne sampling of the cloud environments and by two specific segmentation techniques: one optimized for small, disorganized cumulus and the other for larger, organized clouds using suitable thresholds for reflectance and blurring. We present an analysis of cloud lifecycle properties using our dual segmentation approach for various sampled environments of CAMP2Ex. A total of 7 research flights (RFs) exhibited ideal conditions for generating cloud-track ensembles under similar thermodynamic and kinematic profiles but with varying aerosol load. We consider lifetime, track-achieved metrics, and ensemble-fitted growth rates to evaluate the aerosol effect. Cloud elongation, a factor in cloud morphology, is also considered for any potential influence in observed shifts in growth rates. The results suggest that aerosol affects cloud lifecycles more significantly for clouds with larger areas and independent of the elongation factor.

Cloud Tracking↗

NASA NTRS2008

Strategic Analysis Overview

NASA s Constellation Program employs a strategic analysis methodology in providing an integrated analysis capability of Lunar exploration scenarios and to support strategic decision-making regarding those scenarios. The strategic analysis methodology integrates the assessment of the major contributors to strategic objective satisfaction performance, affordability, and risk and captures the linkages and feedbacks between all three components. Strategic analysis supports strategic decision making by senior management through comparable analysis of alternative strategies, provision of a consistent set of high level value metrics, and the enabling of cost-benefit analysis. The tools developed to implement the strategic analysis methodology are not element design and sizing tools. Rather, these models evaluate strategic performance using predefined elements, imported into a library from expert-driven design/sizing tools or expert analysis. Specific components of the strategic analysis tool set include scenario definition, requirements generation, mission manifesting, scenario lifecycle costing, crew time analysis, objective satisfaction benefit, risk analysis, and probabilistic evaluation. Results from all components of strategic analysis are evaluated a set of pre-defined figures of merit (FOMs). These FOMs capture the high-level strategic characteristics of all scenarios and facilitate direct comparison of options. The strategic analysis methodology that is described in this paper has previously been applied to the Space Shuttle and International Space Station Programs and is now being used to support the development of the baseline Constellation Program lunar architecture. This paper will present an overview of the strategic analysis methodology and will present sample results from the application of the strategic analysis methodology to the Constellation Program lunar architecture.

Cirillo, William M.↗