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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Intermittent fasting enhances long-term memory consolidation, adult hippocampal neurogenesis, and expression of longevity gene Klotho

Daily calorie restriction (CR) and intermittent fasting (IF) enhance longevity and cognition but the effects and mechanisms that differentiate these two paradigms are unknown. We examined whether IF in the form of every-other-day feeding enhances cognition and adult hippocampal neurogenesis (AHN) when compared to a matched 10% daily CR intake and ad libitum conditions. After 3 months under IF, female C57BL6 mice exhibited improved long-term memory retention. IF increased the number of BrdU-labeled cells and neuroblasts in the hippocampus, and microarray analysis revealed that the longevity gene Klotho (Kl) was upregulated in the hippocampus by IF only. Furthermore, we found that downregulating Kl in human hippocampal progenitor cells led to decreased neurogenesis, whereas Kl overexpression increased neurogenesis. Finally, histological analysis of Kl knockout mice brains revealed that Kl is required for AHN, particularly in the dorsal hippocampus. These data suggest that IF is superior to 10% CR in enhancing memory and identifies Kl as a novel candidate molecule that regulates the effects of IF on cognition likely via AHN enhancement.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

A fractional calculus framework for open quantum dynamics: From Liouville to Lindblad to memory kernels

Open quantum systems exhibit dynamics ranging from unitary evolution to irreversible dissipation. While the Gorini–Kossakowski–Sudarshan–Lindblad equation uniquely characterizes Markovian completely positive and trace-preserving (CPTP) evolution, many physical platforms display non-Markovian features such as algebraic relaxation and coherence backflow. Fractional calculus provides a natural way to model such long-memory behavior through power-law temporal kernels introduced by fractional time derivatives. Here, we develop a unified framework that embeds fractional master equations within the broader hierarchy of open-system formalisms. The fractional equation forms a structured subclass of memory-kernel models, reduces to the Lindblad form at unit order, and, through Bochner–Phillips subordination, admits a CPTP representation as an average over Lindblad semigroups. Its resolvent structure further connects fractional dynamics to established non-Markovian approaches, including Nakajima–Zwanzig kernels and hierarchical equations of motion, providing a compact surrogate for long-memory effects. This formulation positions fractional calculus as a rigorous and practical language for modeling non-Markovian quantum dynamics in chemical physics and physical chemistry, providing a CPTP-preserving, computationally efficient surrogate for structured condensed-phase environments where long-time memory and dissipation play a central role.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

Long-time memory effects in a localizable central spin problem

We study the properties of the Nakajima–Zwanzig memory kernel for a qubit immersed in a many-body localized (i.e. disordered and interacting) bath. We argue that the memory kernel decays as a power law in both the localized and ergodic regimes, and show how this can be leveraged to extract t → ∞ populations for the qubit from finite time (Jt ≤ 10 2 ) data in the thermalizing phase. This allows us to quantify how the long-time values of the populations approach the expected thermalized state as the bath approaches the thermodynamic limit. This approach should provide a good complement to state-of-the-art numerical methods, for which the long-time dynamics with large baths are impossible to simulate in this phase. Additionally, our numerics on finite baths reveal the possibility for unbounded exponential growth in the memory kernel, a phenomenon rooted in the appearance of exceptional points in the projected Liouvillian governing the reduced dynamics. In small systems amenable to exact numerics, we find that these pathologies may have some correlation with delocalization.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Model reduction for a power grid model

We examine the complexity of constructing reduced order models for subsets of the variables needed to represent the state of the power grid. In particular, we apply model reduction techniques to the DeMarco-Zheng power grid model. We show that due to the oscillating nature of the solutions and the absence of timescale separation between resolved and unresolved variables, the construction of accurate reduced models becomes highly non-trivial because one has to account for long memory effects. In addition, we show that a reduced model that includes even a short memory is drastically better than a memoryless model.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multivariate degradation modeling using generalized cauchy process and application in life prediction of dye-sensitized solar cells

Recently, the Generalized Cauchy (GC) process has been applied to capture a Long Memory (LM) phenomenon in product degradation modeling and life prediction. Compared with the traditional fractional Brownian motion that captures the LM using a single Hurst parameter, the GC process has two free parameters (Hurst and fractal dimension parameters) that flexibly capture both global LM and local irregularity. However, all existing GC-based degradation models are for a single Degradation Characteristic (DC). In this article, motivated by a real degradation problem of dye-sensitized solar cells that jointly exhibits multiple DCs, global LM, local irregularity and DC-wise cross-correlation, we propose a novel GC-based Multivariate Degradation Model (GC-MDM) to simultaneously capture the aforementioned effects. A maximum likelihood estimation approach is developed to estimate parameters of the GC-MDM. Subsequently, product life prediction based on the GC-MDM is developed. The proposed GC-MDM is validated through a simulation study and a physical experiment of dye-sensitized solar cells. Furthermore, results show that the proposed GC-MDM fundamentally improves the life prediction accuracy in comparison with conventional degradation models which significantly misestimate the uncertainty of product life.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Path sampling of recurrent neural networks by incorporating known physics

Recurrent neural networks have seen widespread use in modeling dynamical systems in varied domains such as weather prediction, text prediction and several others. Often one wishes to supplement the experimentally observed dynamics with prior knowledge or intuition about the system. While the recurrent nature of these networks allows them to model arbitrarily long memories in the time series used in training, it makes it harder to impose prior knowledge or intuition through generic constraints. In this work, we present a path sampling approach based on principle of Maximum Caliber that allows us to include generic thermodynamic or kinetic constraints into recurrent neural networks. We show the method here for a widely used type of recurrent neural network known as long short-term memory network in the context of supplementing time series collected from different application domains. These include classical Molecular Dynamics of a protein and Monte Carlo simulations of an open quantum system continuously losing photons to the environment and displaying Rabi oscillations. Our method can be easily generalized to other generative artificial intelligence models and to generic time series in different areas of physical and social sciences, where one wishes to supplement limited data with intuition or theory based corrections.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Complexity-calibrated benchmarks for machine learning reveal when prediction algorithms succeed and mislead

Abstract Recurrent neural networks are used to forecast time series in finance, climate, language, and from many other domains. Reservoir computers are a particularly easily trainable form of recurrent neural network. Recently, a “next-generation” reservoir computer was introduced in which the memory trace involves only a finite number of previous symbols. We explore the inherent limitations of finite-past memory traces in this intriguing proposal. A lower bound from Fano’s inequality shows that, on highly non-Markovian processes generated by large probabilistic state machines, next-generation reservoir computers with reasonably long memory traces have an error probability that is at least $$\sim 60\%$$ ∼ 60 % higher than the minimal attainable error probability in predicting the next observation. More generally, it appears that popular recurrent neural networks fall far short of optimally predicting such complex processes. These results highlight the need for a new generation of optimized recurrent neural network architectures. Alongside this finding, we present concentration-of-measure results for randomly-generated but complex processes. One conclusion is that large probabilistic state machines—specifically, large $$\epsilon$$ ϵ -machines—are key to generating challenging and structurally-unbiased stimuli for ground-truthing recurrent neural network architectures.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying Memory in Spin Glasses

Rejuvenation and memory, long considered the distinguishing features of spin glasses, have recently been proven to result from the growth of multiple length scales. This insight, enabled by simulations on the Janus II supercomputer, has opened the door to a quantitative analysis. We combine numerical simulations with comparable experiments to introduce two coefficients that quantify memory. A third coefficient has been recently presented by Freedberg et al. Here, we show that these coefficients are physically equivalent by studying their temperature and waiting-time dependence.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Seasonal forecasting skill for the High Mountain Asia region in the Goddard Earth Observing System

Seasonal variability of the global hydrologic cycle directly impacts human activities, including hazard assessment and mitigation, agricultural decisions, and water resources management. This is particularly true across the High Mountain Asia (HMA) region, where availability of water resources can change depending on local seasonality of the hydrologic cycle. Forecasting the atmospheric states and surface conditions, including hydrometeorologically relevant variables, at subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) lead times of weeks to months is an area of active research and development. NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) S2S prediction system has been developed with this research goal in mind. Here, we benchmark the forecast skill of GEOS-S2S (version 2) hydrometeorological forecasts at 1–3-month lead times in the HMA region, including a portion of the Indian subcontinent, during the retrospective forecast period, 1981–2016. To assess forecast skill, we evaluate 2 m air temperature, total precipitation, fractional snow cover, snow water equivalent, surface soil moisture, and terrestrial water storage forecasts against the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) and independent reanalysis data, satellite observations, and data fusion products. Anomaly correlation is highest when the forecasts are evaluated against MERRA-2 and particularly in variables with long memory in the climate system, likely due to the similar initial conditions and model architecture used in GEOS-S2S and MERRA-2. When compared to MERRA-2, results for the 1-month forecast skill range from an anomaly correlation of R anom =0.18 for precipitation to R anom =0.62 for soil moisture. Anomaly correlations are consistently lower when forecasts are evaluated against independent observations; results for the 1-month forecast skill range from R anom =0.13 for snow water equivalent to R anom =0.24 for fractional snow cover. We find that, generally, hydrometeorological forecast skill is dependent on the forecast lead time, the memory of the variable within the physical system, and the validation dataset used. Overall, these results benchmark the GEOS-S2S system's ability to forecast HMA hydrometeorology.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Optimal strategies for optical quantum memories using long-lived noble-gas spins

Nuclear spins of noble gases exhibit exceptionally long coherence times and can potentially serve as a long-lived storage medium for quantum information. We analyze and compare the performance of two mechanisms for mapping the quantum state of light onto the collective spin state of noble gases. The first mechanism utilizes collisional exchange with the electronic spin state of metastable noble-gas atoms, while the second relies on spin-exchange collisions with ground-state alkali-metal atoms. We describe the operation of an optical quantum memory relying on these two mechanisms using a compact model and study strategies that optimize the memory storage efficiency. Through numerical simulations, we identify optimal sequences for storing optical signals with different signal bandwidths and electronic spin relaxation rates. This work highlights the qualitative difference between the two approaches for using noble gases as long-lived quantum memories at noncryogenic conditions and outlines the regimes in which they are expected to be efficient.

atomic ensemble↗
DOE OSTI2020

Enhancing Streamflow Forecast and Extracting Insights Using Long-Short Term Memory Networks With Data Integration at Continental Scales

Recent observations with varied schedules and types (moving average, snapshot, or regularly spaced) can help to improve streamflow forecasts, but it is challenging to integrate them effectively. Based on a long short-term memory (LSTM) streamflow model, we tested multiple versions of a flexible procedure we call data integration (DI) to leverage recent discharge measurements to improve forecasts. DI accepts lagged inputs either directly or through a convolutional neural network unit. DI ubiquitously elevated streamflow forecast performance to unseen levels, reaching a record continental-scale median Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency coefficient value of 0.86. Integrating moving-average discharge, discharge from the last few days, or even average discharge from the previous calendar month could all improve daily forecasts. Directly using lagged observations as inputs was comparable in performance to using the convolutional neural network unit. Importantly, we obtained valuable insights regarding hydrologic processes impacting LSTM and DI performance. Before applying DI, the base LSTM model worked well in mountainous or snow-dominated regions, but less well in regions with low discharge volumes (due to either low precipitation or high precipitation-energy synchronicity) and large interannual storage variability. DI was most beneficial in regions with high flow autocorrelation: it greatly reduced baseflow bias in groundwater-dominated western basins and also improved peak prediction for basins with dynamical surface water storage, such as the Prairie Potholes or Great Lakes regions. However, even DI cannot elevate performance in high-aridity basins with 1-day flash peaks. Despite this limitation, there is much promise for a deep-learning-based forecast paradigm due to its performance, automation, efficiency, and flexibility.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Time-Sequenced Flow Field Prediction in an Optima Spark-Ignition Direct-Injection Engine Using Bidirectional Recurrent Neural Network (bi-RNN) with Long Short-Term Memory

To further improve the energy conversion efficiency of internal combustion engine, the transient and complex air flow movement inside the cylinder needs to be better understood and controlled. Although the in-cylinder flow fields are highly stochastic with strong cycle-to-cycle fluctuations, machine learning can still provide an efficient way to learn and regress the complex flow movement process inside the cylinder. In this work, a bidirectional recurrent neural network (bi-RNN) model with long short-term memory was applied to predict the in-cylinder flow fields at different time steps using training data from mull-cycle particle image velocimetry (PIV) measurements. To evaluate the agreement between the true and predicted flow fields, structure and magnitude comparison indices are calculated both globally and locally. The comparison results show that the bi-RNN model can accurately predict the bulk flow and vortex motions from early intake stroke to compression stroke. This work demonstrates that the machine learning model has the potential to predict the underlying dynamics of the interaction between in-cylinder flows and provides a reliable way to improve temporal resolution in PIV flow data to better reveal transient in-cylinder flow features.

Bi-RNN model↗
DOE OSTI2022

Inductive predictions of hydrologic events using a Long Short-Term Memory network and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool

We present machine learning methods to predict hydrologic features such as streamflow and soil moisture from spatially and temporally varying hydrological and meteorological data. Here, we used a temporal reduction technique to reduce computation and memory requirements and trained a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network to predict soil moisture and streamflow over multiple watersheds. We show LSTM networks can be trained in a fraction of the time required by complex process-based and attention-based models such as Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and GeoMAN without sacrificing accuracy. We also demonstrate that outside data - sourced from a watershed other than the target - can be used to train LSTM to comparable or even superior prediction accuracy. The success of LSTM in such spatially-inductive settings shows hydrologic features can be predicted with minimal prior knowledge of the watershed in question. Finally, we make all methodologies of this work publicly available as an end-to-end software pipeline that facilitates rapid prototyping of hydrologic learners.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

One-Step Ahead Prediction of Thermal Mixing Tee Sensors with Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) Neural Networks

High-temperature advanced reactors under development, such as sodium fast reactors (SFR) and molten salt cooled reactors (MSCR), are expected to offer lower levelized cost of energy (LCOE) compared to existing light water reactor (LWR’s). In the existing light water reactors (LWR’s), operation and maintenance (O&M) expenses constitute the largest fraction of the total operating cost. Some of the O&M costs are related maintenance of sensors which can fail due to exposure to harsh environment in a reactor. The O&M costs of Advanced Reactor (AR)’s are expected to constitute a significant fraction of the total cost as well, because of high temperature and radiation level in AR are likely to cause material fatigue and premature failure of sensors and components. The O&M costs in AR’s could be reduced through integration of advanced informatics of performance-related sensors into a digital twin designed for reactor monitoring. For example, machine learning (ML) could be employed for real-time validation and correction of performance-related sensors, and reducing the number of performance-related physical sensor units through virtual sensing. As part of the effort, we investigate real-time validation of thermal hydraulic sensors through one-step ahead forecasting of sensor values using long short-term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural networks (RNN). The sensors are installed in a flow loop containing a thermal mixing tee, which is a common experimental model to study thermal fatigue in a thermal hydraulic loop. In addition, nonlinear transients generated in a thermal mixing tee constitute a good challenge data set for training and validation of ML algorithms. Sensors in this study include thermocouples, flow meters, and optical fibers for distributed temperature sensing. In one experiment, measurement data sets were obtained for a loop was filled with water, and in another experiment, measurements were performed on a loop filled with liquid metal Galinstan. We have also conducted preliminary investigation of one-step ahead prediction of fiber optics-based distributed temperature sensing with LSTM networks. In predicting fiber-based temperature measurements, we treated each gauge pitch of the fiber as an independent sensor. Accuracy of one-step ahead forecasting was estimated by calculating root mean square error (RMSE) for the test segment of time series of each sensor. RMSE’s for temperature sensors in water loop were, for the most part, lower than for the same sensors in Galinstan loop. The RMSE’s for flow meters were similar for both loops. The RMSE’s for distributed temperature measured with the fiber optic sensor were similar to those of the point sensors. Results of this study demonstrated the capability of LSTM one-step ahead forecasting with RMSE comparable to uncertainty in sensor measurements.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluating the Potential and Challenges of an Uncertainty Quantification Method for Long Short–Term Memory Models for Soil Moisture Predictions

Recently, recurrent deep networks have shown promise to harness newly available satellite–sensed data for long–term soil moisture projections. However, to be useful in forecasting, deep networks must also provide uncertainty estimates. Here we evaluated Monte Carlo dropout with an input–dependent data noise term (MCD+N), an efficient uncertainty estimation framework originally developed in computer vision, for hydrologic time series predictions. MCD+N simultaneously estimates a heteroscedastic input–dependent data noise term (a trained error model attributable to observational noise) and a network weight uncertainty term (attributable to insufficiently constrained model parameters). Although MCD+N has appealing features, many heuristic approximations were employed during its derivation, and rigorous evaluations and evidence of its asserted capability to detect dissimilarity were lacking. To address this, we provided an in–depth evaluation of the scheme's potential and limitations. We showed that for reproducing soil moisture dynamics recorded by the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission, MCD+N indeed gave a good estimate of predictive error, provided that we tuned a hyperparameter and used a representative training data set. The input–dependent term responded strongly to observational noise, while the model term clearly acted as a detector for physiographic dissimilarity from the training data, behaving as intended. However, when the training and test data were characteristically different, the input–dependent term could be misled, undermining its reliability. Additionally, due to the data–driven nature of the model, data noise also influences network weight uncertainty, and therefore the two uncertainty terms are correlated. Altogether, this approach has promise, but care is needed to interpret the results.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗