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NASA NTRS2015

Technology Alignment and Portfolio Prioritization (TAPP): Advanced Methods in Strategic Analysis, Technology Forecasting and Long Term Planning for Human Exploration and Operations, Advanced Exploration Systems and Advanced Concepts

The Advanced Concepts Office (ACO) at NASA, Marshall Space Flight Center is expanding its current technology assessment methodologies. ACO is developing a framework called TAPP that uses a variety of methods, such as association mining and rule learning from data mining, structure development using a Technological Innovation System (TIS), and social network modeling to measure structural relationships. The role of ACO is to 1) produce a broad spectrum of ideas and alternatives for a variety of NASA's missions, 2) determine mission architecture feasibility and appropriateness to NASA's strategic plans, and 3) define a project in enough detail to establish an initial baseline capable of meeting mission objectives ACO's role supports the decision­-making process associated with the maturation of concepts for traveling through, living in, and understanding space. ACO performs concept studies and technology assessments to determine the degree of alignment between mission objectives and new technologies. The first step in technology assessment is to identify the current technology maturity in terms of a technology readiness level (TRL). The second step is to determine the difficulty associated with advancing a technology from one state to the next state. NASA has used TRLs since 1970 and ACO formalized them in 1995. The DoD, ESA, Oil & Gas, and DoE have adopted TRLs as a means to assess technology maturity. However, "with the emergence of more complex systems and system of systems, it has been increasingly recognized that TRL assessments have limitations, especially when considering [the] integration of complex systems." When performing the second step in a technology assessment, NASA requires that an Advancement Degree of Difficulty (AD2) method be utilized. NASA has used and developed or used a variety of methods to perform this step: Expert Opinion or Delphi Approach, Value Engineering or Value Stream, Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), Technique for the Order of Prioritization by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS), and other multi­‐criteria decision-making methods. These methods can be labor-intensive, often contain cognitive or parochial bias, and do not consider the competing prioritization between mission architectures. Strategic Decision-Making (SDM) processes cannot be properly understood unless the context of the technology is understood. This makes assessing technological change particularly challenging due to the relationships "between incumbent technology and the incumbent (innovation) system in relation to the emerging technology and the emerging innovation system." The central idea in technology dynamics is to consider all activities that contribute to the development, diffusion, and use of innovations as system functions. Bergek defines system functions within a TIS to address what is actually happening and has a direct influence on the ultimate performance of the system and technology development. ACO uses similar metrics and is expanding these metrics to account for the structure and context of the technology. At NASA technology and strategy is strongly interrelated. NASA's Strategic Space Technology Investment Plan (SSTIP) prioritizes those technologies essential to the pursuit of NASA's missions and national interests. The SSTIP is strongly coupled with NASA's Technology Roadmaps to provide investment guidance during the next four years, within a twenty-year horizon. This paper discusses the methods ACO is currently developing to better perform technology assessments while taking into consideration Strategic Alignment, Technology Forecasting, and Long Term Planning.

Funaro, Gregory V.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Space Resource Utilization: Near-Term Missions and Long-Term Plans for Human Exploration

NASA's Human Exploration Plans: A primary goal of all major space faring nations is to explore space: from the Earth with telescopes, with robotic probes and space telescopes, and with humans. For the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), this pursuit is captured in three important strategic goals: 1. Ascertain the content, origin, and evolution of the solar system and the potential for life elsewhere, 2. Extend and sustain human activities across the solar system (especially the surface of Mars), and 3. Create innovative new space technologies for exploration, science, and economic future. While specific missions and destinations are still being discussed as to what comes first, it is imperative for NASA that it foster the development and implementation of new technologies and approaches that make space exploration affordable and sustainable. Critical to achieving affordable and sustainable human exploration beyond low Earth orbit (LEO) is the development of technologies and systems to identify, extract, and use resources in space instead of bringing everything from Earth. To reduce the development and implementation costs for space resource utilization, often called In Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU), it is imperative to work with terrestrial mining companies to spin-in/spin-off technologies and capabilities, and space mining companies to expand our economy beyond Earth orbit. In the last two years, NASA has focused on developing and implementing a sustainable human space exploration program with the ultimate goal of exploring the surface of Mars with humans. The plan involves developing technology and capability building blocks critical for sustained exploration starting with the Space Launch System (SLS) and Orion crew spacecraft and utilizing the International Space Station as a springboard into the solar system. The evolvable plan develops and expands human exploration in phases starting with missions that are reliant on Earth, to performing ever more challenging and longer duration missions in cis-lunar space and beyond, to eventually being independent from Earth. The goal is no longer just to reach a destination, but to enable people to work, learn, operate, and live safely beyond the Earth for extended periods of time, ultimately in ways that are more sustainable and even indefinite.

Sanders, Gerald B.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Space Resource Utilization: Near-Term Missions and Long-Term Plans for Human Exploration

A primary goal of all major space faring nations is to explore space: from the Earth with telescopes, with robotic probes and space telescopes, and with humans. For the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), this pursuit is captured in three important strategic goals: 1. Ascertain the content, origin, and evolution of the solar system and the potential for life elsewhere, 2. Extend and sustain human activities across the solar system (especially the surface of Mars), and 3. Create innovative new space technologies for exploration, science, and economic future. While specific missions and destinations are still being discussed as to what comes first, it is imperative for NASA that it foster the development and implementation of new technologies and approaches that make space exploration affordable and sustainable. Critical to achieving affordable and sustainable human exploration beyond low Earth orbit (LEO) is the development of technologies and systems to identify, extract, and use resources in space instead of bringing everything from Earth. To reduce the development and implementation costs for space resource utilization, often called In Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU), it is imperative to work with terrestrial mining companies to spin-in/spin-off technologies and capabilities, and space mining companies to expand our economy beyond Earth orbit. In the last two years, NASA has focused on developing and implementing a sustainable human space exploration program with the ultimate goal of exploring the surface of Mars with humans. The plan involves developing technology and capability building blocks critical for sustained exploration starting with the Space Launch System (SLS) and Orion crew spacecraft and utilizing the International Space Station as a springboard into the solar system. The evolvable plan develops and expands human exploration in phases starting with missions that are reliant on Earth, to performing ever more challenging and longer duration missions in cis-lunar space and beyond, to eventually being independent from Earth. The goal is no longer just to reach a destination, but to enable people to work, learn, operate, and live safely beyond the Earth for extended periods of time, ultimately in ways that are more sustainable and even indefinite.

Sanders, Gerald B.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Working Group 1: Current plans of various organisations for lunar activities

Summaries of presentations by representatives of several space agencies and the International Academy of Astronautics concerning lunar activities are presented. Participating space agencies reported two different types of lunar planning, long term planning and scenarios and lunar missions competing within regular programs. The long term plans of the various agencies look remarkably similar. They all involve a phased approach (coincidentally all incorporating four phases) and all address three prime scientific elements: science of, on, and from the Moon. The missions under consideration by the second group of agencies could readily fit as elements in the longer term program. There is great interest in lunar astronomy. There is a great deal of potential infrastructure and lunar transport capability already available. There is also a wide range of interesting technological developments that could form part of a lunar program. A well concerted and coordinated international effort could lead to an affordable program. Recommendations are: an international conference on lunar exploration should be held every other year; an electronic network should be established for the daily exchange of information; and a mechanism should be established for regular working level coordination of activities.

Balsiger, H.↗
NASA NTRS2016

International Earth Science Constellations (ESC) Introduction

This presentation will discuss NASA HQ perspective, current state of the mission, Landsat 7 and Terra exit plans, long term plans for all mission, CARA updates, Spring 2016 IAM series plans and current status, CCS future release plans, and results of covariance calculation meetings.

Afternoon Constellation↗
NASA NTRS1991

Planning for the long-term evolution of Space Station Freedom

The possibility and scope of changes to the Space Station Freedom (SSF) are examined in terms of potential research directions to develop a strategy for long-term planning. The drivers for changes are similar to those of other programs: limited initial capability, evolving user requirements, and the availability of new technologies. The requirements for addressing growth include identifying long-range goals, issues that affect success, mission-related strategies, and establishing decision-making contexts. The Permanently Manned Capability is a key long-range issue, and the phases related to its development and beyond it are discussed. The growth requirements suggest a balance of resources and full utilization of laboratory volume. The paper identifies 8 emerging technologies that are vital to the program and can affect the evolution of the Follow-on Phase and longer-term changes.

Huckins, Earle K.↗
NASA NTRS1984

The Representation of Action Plans in Long Term Memory

A sequence of experiments conducted on a two hand chord typewriter, to compare the efficiency of different coding principles employed to associate letters with their chord productions is described. This keyboard represents an effort to identify effective alternatives to the existing typewriter. It consists of two seperate 5-key panels (one for each hand), and letters are entered by typing chords composed of one to five fingers. Each panel is capable of producing the full alphabet. One group of experiments was designed to separate between perceptual and motor factors in the acivation of single letter chords. The results underline the importance of perceptual factors in the activation of motor plans. The complexity of the patterns employed to represent letters was shown to account for 50 percent of variance in the typing speeds of single letters. The theoretical implications of these results are discussed in relation to a vision based theory of action plans.

Fussfeld, G. N.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Planning for long term control of Space Station

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is conducting conceptual studies concerning the development of a future U.S. Space Station. The Space Station navigation, guidance, and control functions must be performed over the projected long lifetime of the station. After examining the pertinent history of U.S. spacecraft, this paper examines how these long-term operations can be achieved, settling on autonomous operations as a desirable goal. The paper concludes with a recommended development approach.

Buchanan, H.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Spacecraft computer technology at Southwest Research Institute

Southwest Research Institute (SwRI) has developed and delivered spacecraft computers for a number of different near-Earth-orbit spacecraft including shuttle experiments and SDIO free-flyer experiments. We describe the evolution of the basic SwRI spacecraft computer design from those weighing in at 20 to 25 lb and using 20 to 30 W to newer models weighing less than 5 lb and using only about 5 W, yet delivering twice the processing throughput. Because of their reduced size, weight, and power, these newer designs are especially applicable to planetary instrument requirements. The basis of our design evolution has been the availability of more powerful processor chip sets and the development of higher density packaging technology, coupled with more aggressive design strategies in incorporating high-density FPGA technology and use of high-density memory chips. In addition to reductions in size, weight, and power, the newer designs also address the necessity of survival in the harsh radiation environment of space. Spurred by participation in such programs as MSTI, LACE, RME, Delta 181, Delta Star, and RADARSAT, our designs have evolved in response to program demands to be small, low-powered units, radiation tolerant enough to be suitable for both Earth-orbit microsats and for planetary instruments. Present designs already include MIL-STD-1750 and Multi-Chip Module (MCM) technology with near-term plans to include RISC processors and higher-density MCM's. Long term plans include development of whole-core processors on one or two MCM's.

Shirley, D. J.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Climate Hazard Assessment for Stakeholder Adaptation Planning in New York City

This paper describes a time-sensitive approach to climate change projections, developed as part of New York City's climate change adaptation process, that has provided decision support to stakeholders from 40 agencies, regional planning associations, and private companies. The approach optimizes production of projections given constraints faced by decision makers as they incorporate climate change into long-term planning and policy. New York City stakeholders, who are well-versed in risk management, helped pre-select the climate variables most likely to impact urban infrastructure, and requested a projection range rather than a single 'most likely' outcome. The climate projections approach is transferable to other regions and consistent with broader efforts to provide climate services, including impact, vulnerability, and adaptation information. The approach uses 16 Global Climate Models (GCMs) and three emissions scenarios to calculate monthly change factors based on 30-year average future time slices relative to a 30- year model baseline. Projecting these model mean changes onto observed station data for New York City yields dramatic changes in the frequency of extreme events such as coastal flooding and dangerous heat events. Based on these methods, the current 1-in-10 year coastal flood is projected to occur more than once every 3 years by the end of the century, and heat events are projected to approximately triple in frequency. These frequency changes are of sufficient magnitude to merit consideration in long-term adaptation planning, even though the precise changes in extreme event frequency are highly uncertain

Horton, Radley M.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Integrated Planning and Scheduling for NASA’s Deep Space Network – from Forecasting to Real-time

Over a period of several years, the software systems that plan and schedule the use of NASA’s Deep Space Network (DSN) for the projects it serves have been upgraded from a disparate set of decades-old software components, to an integrated suite covering long-range planning and forecasting, all the way to real-time scheduling. The most recent component of this suite is known as LAPS, for Loading Analysis and Planning Software, and is responsible for long-term planning and forecasting, including studies and analysis of new missions, changed mission requirements, downtime, and new or changed antenna capabilities. This paper discusses the architecture of LAPS and its interfaces with other elements of DSN planning and scheduling, its user interfaces, and some lessons learned from development and deployment.

Lad, Jigna↗
NASA NTRS2010

Regenerative (Regen) ECLSS Operations Water Balance

In November 2008, the Water Regenerative System racks were launched aboard Space Shuttle flight, STS-126 (ULF2) and installed and activated on the International Space Station (ISS). These racks, consisting of the Water Processor Assembly (WPA) and Urine Processor Assembly (UPA), completed the installation of the Regenerative (Regen) ECLSS systems which includes the Oxygen Generator Assembly (OGA) that was launched 2 years prior. With the onset of active water management on the US segment of the ISS, a new operational concept was required, that of "water balance." Even more recently, in 2010 the Sabatier system came online which converts H2 and CO2 into water and methane. The Regen ECLSS systems accept condensation from the atmosphere, urine from crew, and processes that fluid via various means into potable water which is used for crew drinking, building up skip-cycle water inventory, and water for electrolysis to produce oxygen. Specification rates of crew urine output, condensate output, O2 requirements, toilet flush water and drinking needs are well documented and used as a general plan when Regen ECLSS came online. Spec rates are useful in long term planning, however, daily or weekly rates are dependent on a number of variables. The constantly changing rates created a new challenge for the ECLSS flight controllers, who are responsible for operating the ECLSS systems onboard ISS. This paper will review the various inputs to rate changes and inputs to planning events, including but not limited to; crew personnel makeup, Regen ECLSS system operability, vehicle traffic, water containment availability, and Carbon Dioxide Removal Assembly (CDRA) capability. Along with the inputs that change the various rates, the paper will review the different systems, their constraints and finally the operational means by which flight controllers manage this new challenge of "water balance."

Tobias, Barry↗
NASA NTRS2011

International Space Station Water Balance Operations

In November 2008, the Water Regenerative System racks were launched aboard Space Shuttle flight, STS-126 (ULF2) and installed and activated on the International Space Station (ISS). These racks, consisting of the Water Processor Assembly (WPA) and Urine Processor Assembly (UPA), completed the installation of the Regenerative (Regen) Environmental Control and Life Support Systems (ECLSS), which includes the Oxygen Generation Assembly (OGA) that was launched 2 years prior. With the onset of active water management on the US segment of the ISS, a new operational concept was required, that of water balance . In November of 2010, the Sabatier system, which converts H2 and CO2 into water and methane, was brought on line. The Regen ECLSS systems accept condensation from the atmosphere, urine from crew, and processes that fluid via various means into potable water, which is used for crew drinking, building up skip-cycle water inventory, and water for electrolysis to produce oxygen. Specification (spec) rates of crew urine output, condensate output, O2 requirements, toilet flush water, and drinking needs are well documented and used as the best guess planning rates when Regen ECLSS came online. Spec rates are useful in long term planning, however, daily or weekly rates are dependent upon a number of variables. The constantly changing rates created a new challenge for the ECLSS flight controllers, who are responsible for operating the ECLSS systems onboard ISS from Mission Control in Houston. This paper reviews the various inputs to water planning, rate changes, and dynamic events, including but not limited to: crew personnel makeup, Regen ECLSS system operability, vehicle traffic, water storage availability, and Carbon Dioxide Removal Assembly (CDRA), Sabatier, and OGA capability. Along with the inputs that change the various rates, the paper will review the different systems, their constraints, and finally the operational challenges and means by which flight controllers manage this new concept of "water balance."

Tobias, Barry↗
NASA NTRS1995

Artificial Neural Networks

Electric power systems represent complex systems involving many electrical components whoseoperation has to be planned, analyzed, monitored and controlled. The time-scale of tasks in electricpower systems extends from long term planning years ahead to milliseconds in the area of control. The behavior of power systems is highly non-linear. Monitoring and control involves several hundred variables which are only partly available by measurements.

Neural Networks↗
NASA NTRS2006

A Year in the Life of International Space Station

The past twelve months (October 2005 to September 2006) have been among the busiest in the life of the International Space Station (ISS), both in terms of on-orbit operations as well as future planning, for both ISS systems and research. The Expedition 12 and 13 crews completed their missions successfully, carrying out research for Russia, the United States, Europe and Japan, and bringing continuous ISS occupancy to nearly six years. The European Space Agency's (ESA) first Long Duration Mission on ISS is underway, involving significant international research. The Expedition 14 crew completed its training and is embarking on its own 6-month mission with a full slate of international research. Future crews are in training for their respective assembly and research missions. Shuttle flights resumed after a 10-month hiatus, delivering new research facilities and resuming assembly of ISS. ESA's Columbus research module was delivered to the Kennedy Space Center, joining Japan's Kibo research module already there. Following preflight testing, the two modules will launch in 2007 and 2008, respectively, joining Destiny as ISS's research infrastructure. A revised ISS configuration and assembly sequence were endorsed by all the Partners, with a reduced number of Shuttle flights, but for the first time including plans for post-Shuttle ISS operations after 2010. The new plan will pose significant challenges to the ISS research community. As Europe and Japan build their on-orbit research infrastructure, and long-term plans become firmer, the next 12 months should prove to be equally challenging and exciting.

Uri, John J.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel

This Annual Report of the Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel (ASAP) presents results of activities during calendar year 2001. The year was marked by significant achievements in the Space Shuttle and International Space Station (ISS) programs and encouraging accomplishments by the Aerospace Technology Enterprise. Unfortunately, there were also disquieting mishaps with the X-43, a LearJet, and a wind tunnel. Each mishap was analyzed in an orderly process to ascertain causes and derive lessons learned. Both these accomplishments and the responses to the mishaps led the Panel to conclude that safety and risk management is currently being well served within NASA. NASA's operations evidence high levels of safety consciousness and sincere efforts to place safety foremost. Nevertheless, the Panel's safety concerns have never been greater. This dichotomy has arisen because the focus of most NASA programs has been directed toward program survival rather than effective life cycle planning. Last year's Annual Report focused on the need for NASA to adopt a realistically long planning horizon for the aging Space Shuttle so that safety would not erode. NASA's response to the report concurred with this finding. Nevertheless, there has been a greater emphasis on current operations to the apparent detriment of long-term planning. Budget cutbacks and shifts in priorities have severely limited the resources available to the Space Shuttle and ISS for application to risk-reduction and life-extension efforts. As a result, funds originally intended for long-term safety-related activities have been used for operations. Thus, while safety continues to be well served at present, the basis for future safety has eroded. Section II of this report develops this theme in more detail and presents several important, overarching findings and recommendations that apply to many if not all of NASA's programs. Section III of the report presents other significant findings, recommendations and supporting material applicable to specific program areas. Appendix A presents a list of Panel members. Appendix B contains the reaction of the ASAP to NASA's response to the calendar year 2000 findings and recommendations. In accordance with a practice started last year, this Appendix includes brief narratives as well as classifications of the responses as 'open,' 'closed,' or 'continuing.' Appendix C details the Panel's activities during the reporting period.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2013

The "Programmatics" of the ISS Crewmembers' Twelve Month Mission

The mission duration for crewmembers' stay on the International Space Station (ISS) has historically been approximately six months, consistent with the service life of the Soyuz spacecraft that delivers and returns the crewmembers previous. Exploration missions beyond low Earth orbit are expected to require crew durations of a year or more. The ISS Partners have agreed to begin building an experience base of longer crew durations, and have selected two crewmembers to serve on ISS for approximately twelve months, beginning in the Spring of 2015. The preparations for the one NASA and one Roscosmos crewmember require many new considerations for the ISS Program and its Partnership - "programmatic" considerations that are separate from crew health concerns. Since the long-duration crew's Soyuz will need to be replaced halfway through their stay, crew rotation, handover and the Soyuz docking port plan are affected. There is also an opportunity for two short-duration crewmembers to fly during the Soyuz exchange. It is desirable to minimize additional training required of the prime and backup crewmembers; normal crew rotations have a Soyuz crew train as the backup crew, then train as the prime crew. Ground teams will adjust their traditional support to ISS crewmembers, including communication of long-term plans, onboard training, and logistics support. The lessons learned during the preparation and execution of the 12-month mission will support improvements in future ISS long-duration missions and exploration missions.

Hasbrook, Pete↗
NASA NTRS2016

EOS Terra Terra Constellation Exit/Future Maneuver Plans Update

This EOS Terra Constellation Exit/Future Maneuver Plans Update presentation will discuss brief history of Terra EOM work; lifetime fuel estimates; baseline vs. proposed plan origin; resultant exit orbit; baseline vs. proposed exit plan; long term orbit altitude; revised lifetime proposal and fallback options.

EOS Terra↗