Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “long-term prediction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1974

The long-term prediction of artificial satellite orbits

Survey of averaging and multirevolution methods for long-term orbit prediction. A technical approach with the following features is recommended: (1) averaged variation-of-parameter equations, (2) analytical expressions for oblateness and third-body effects, (3) definite integrals for atmospheric drag and lunar effects (for long-period orbits), (4) nonsingular equinoctial element formulation, (5) multistep numerical integration processes, and (6) precise osculating-to-mean element transformation. Several orbital predictions illustrate the contribution of this technical approach to overall accuracy and efficiency. Future development of the analytical averaging method in nonsingular coordinates by automated manipulation of literal series is discussed.

Cefola, P. J.↗
NASA NTRS1971

Techniques of orbital decay and long-term ephemeris prediction for satellites in earth orbit

In the special perturbation method, Cowell and variation-of-parameters formulations of the motion equations are implemented and numerically integrated. Variations in the orbital elements due to drag are computed using the 1970 Jacchia atmospheric density model, which includes the effects of semiannual variations, diurnal bulge, solar activity, and geomagnetic activity. In the general perturbation method, two-variable asymptotic series and automated manipulation capabilities are used to obtain analytical solutions to the variation-of-parameters equations. Solutions are obtained considering the effect of oblateness only and the combined effects of oblateness and drag. These solutions are then numerically evaluated by means of a FORTRAN program in which an updating scheme is used to maintain accurate epoch values of the elements. The atmospheric density function is approximated by a Fourier series in true anomaly, and the 1970 Jacchia model is used to periodically update the Fourier coefficients. The accuracy of both methods is demonstrated by comparing computed orbital elements to actual elements over time spans of up to 8 days for the special perturbation method and up to 356 days for the general perturbation method.

Barry, B. F.↗
NASA NTRS1973

Parameter estimation supplement to the Mission Analysis Evaluation and Space Trajectory Operations program (MAESTRO)

This Parameter Estimation Supplement describes the PEST computer program and gives instructions for its use in determination of lunar gravitation field coefficients. PEST was developed for use in the RAE-B lunar orbiting mission as a means of lunar field recovery. The observations processed by PEST are short-arc osculating orbital elements. These observations are the end product of an orbit determination process obtained with another program. PEST's end product it a set of harmonic coefficients to be used in long-term prediction of the lunar orbit. PEST employs some novel techniques in its estimation process, notably a square batch estimator and linear variational equations in the orbital elements (both osculating and mean) for measurement sensitivities. The program's capabilities are described, and operating instructions and input/output examples are given. PEST utilizes MAESTRO routines for its trajectory propagation. PEST's program structure and subroutines which are not common to MAESTRO are described. Some of the theoretical background information for the estimation process, and a derivation of linear variational equations for the Method 7 elements are included.

Bjorkman, W. S.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Opportunities to Intercalibrate Radiometric Sensors from International Space Station

Highly accurate measurements of Earth's thermal infrared and reflected solar radiation are required for detecting and predicting long-term climate change. Consideration is given to the concept of using the International Space Station to test instruments and techniques that would eventually be used on a dedicated mission, such as the Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO). In particular, a quantitative investigation is performed to determine whether it is possible to use measurements obtained with a highly accurate (0.3%,with 95%confidence) reflected solar radiation spectrometer to calibrate similar, less accurate instruments in other low Earth orbits. Estimates of numbers of samples useful for intercalibration are made with the aid of yearlong simulations of orbital motion. Results of this study support the conclusion that the International Space Station orbit is ideally suited for the purpose of intercalibration between spaceborne sensors.

Intercalibrate↗
NASA NTRS1971

Accelerated battery-life testing - A concept

Test program, employing empirical, statistical and physical methods, determines service life and failure probabilities of electrochemical cells and batteries, and is applicable to testing mechanical, electrical, and chemical devices. Data obtained aids long-term performance prediction of battery or cell.

Mccallum, J.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Accelerated testing of a filled elastomer in vacuum

A program was conducted to evaluate an in situ dynamic modulus measurement on a solid propellant exposed to vacuum environment. The prediction of long-term vacuum exposure effects is examined.

Evans, M. L.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Geothermal reservoir simulation

The prediction of long-term geothermal reservoir performance and the environmental impact of exploiting this resource are two important problems associated with the utilization of geothermal energy for power production. Our research effort addresses these problems through numerical simulation. Computer codes based on the solution of partial-differential equations using finite-element techniques are being prepared to simulate multiphase energy transport, energy transport in fractured porous reservoirs, well bore phenomena, and subsidence.

Mercer, J. W., Jr.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Remote Guidance of a Mothership-Daughtership Formation for Asteroid Exploration

This work presents an application of Model Predictive Control to maintain long-term stability for a three-satellite formation around the asteroid Apophis via remote guidance. The mothership and two daughterships perform tomographic characterization with a bistatic radar. The mothership estimates the states of all three spacecraft and determines the necessary control to maintain the desired antipodal daughtership states. An Extended Kalman Filter estimates the mothership states. A Batch Least Squares algorithm estimates the daughtership states and performs maneuver reconstruction for the mothership-administered thrust commands under thruster and gravitational uncertainty. The formulation maintains the antipodal angle with growing instability amidst these uncertainties.

Guidance↗
NASA NTRS1973

Utilization of remotely-sensed data in the management of inland wetlands

The author has identified the following significant results. ERTS-1 data and aerial photography are proving to be a useful tool for the inventory and management of inland wetlands. Two examples of the application of remotely-sensed data to specific wetland management needs or requirements are discussed. Studies of the Great Dismal Swamp are utilizing ERTS-1 imagery and color IR photography in: (1) study area selection; (2) field inspection; (3) vegetation mapping; (4) identification of drainage characteristics and moisture regime; (5) location of intensive study areas; and (6) detection of change. Thematic extractions of ERTS-1 data made using the United States Geological Survey's Autographic Theme Extraction System are aiding analyses of swamp hydrologic regime and providing information pertinent to quick recognition and inventory of wetlands from ERTS-1. DCP'S in south Florida wetlands provide near-real time data for water resources managers. Data relayed by satellite can be entered into models to provide predictive data and water storage information for long-term and short-term decision making.

Carter, V.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Long-Term Regulation in the Cardiovascular System - Cornerstone in the Development of A Composite Physiological Model

The present work discusses a model of the cardiovascular system and related subsystems capable of long-term simulations of the type desired for in-space hypogravic human physiological performance prediction. The discussion centers around the model of Guyton and modifications of it. In order to draw attention to the fluid handling capabilities of the model, one of several transfusion simulations performed is presented, namely, the isotonic saline transfusion simulation.

R J White↗
NASA NTRS1973

Arousal from sleep by noises from aircraft with and without acoustically treated nacelles

The electroencephalographic and behavioral responses during sleep of four subjects, aged 46 to 58 years, to three types of noises were tested over 14 consecutive nights. The stimuli were two DC-8 jet landing noises (each 30 seconds in duration and coming from DC-8 aircraft with and without acoustical treatment on the engine nacelles) and a 4-second burst of pink noise. Each of the noises was tested at nominal intensities of 61 and 79 dBA. Other physical descriptors of the noises were measured or computed. The results indicate that for an equivalent degree of sleep disruption, noise form the jet aircraft with untreated nacelles must be about 6 dBA less intense than the jet with acoustically treated nacelles. Predictions of the effects of noise on sleep appear, tentatively, to attain the highest accuracy when the physical descriptor of noise intensity includes information about the impulsive characteristics of that noise as well as its long-term spectral content.

Lukas, J. S.↗
NASA NTRS1973

Long-term cryogenic space storage system

Discussion of the design, fabrication and testing of a 225-cu ft spherical cryogenic storage system for long-term subcritical applications under zero-g conditions in storing subcritical cryogens for space vehicle propulsion systems. The insulation system design, the analytical methods used, and the correlation between the performance test results and analytical predictions are described. The best available multilayer insulation materials and state-of-the-art thermal protection concepts were applied in the design, providing a boiloff rate of 0.152 lb/hr, or 0.032% per day, and an overall heat flux of 0.066 Btu/sq ft hr based on a 200 sq ft surface area. A six to eighteen month cryogenic storage is provided by this system for space applications.

Hopkins, R. A.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Silicon-germanium technology program of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory.

The outer planetary exploration missions studied by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory require silicon-germanium radioisotope thermoelectric generators (RTGs) in which the factors of safety are as low as is compatible with the reliable satisfaction of the power needs. Work on silicon germanium sublimation performed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory is presented. Analytical modeling work on the solid-diffusion process involved in the steady-state (free) sublimation of silicon germanium is described. Analytical predictions are made of the sublimation suppression which can be achieved by using a cover gas. A series of accelerated (high-temperature) tests which were performed on simulated hardware (using four SiGe couples) to study long-term sublimation and reaction mechanisms are also discussed.

De Winter, F.↗
NASA NTRS2026

Updated global and regional trends of stratospheric ozone profiles

We present updated evaluation of stratospheric ozone profile trends in the 60° S–60°N latitude range using long-term ground-based and satellite climate data records, as well as simulations by chemistry-climate models. The trends are evaluated using the LOTUS (Long-term Ozone Trends and Uncertainties in the Stratosphere) regression model. Analyses of satellite data confirm the statistically significant positive ozone trends in the period 2000–2024 in the upper stratosphere of ~1–3% per decade, with larger trends at mid-latitudes compared to the tropics. The trends are slightly positive or close to zero in the middle stratosphere, and mostly negative, -1 to -2% per decade, in the lower stratosphere, but they are not statistically significant. The morphology and magnitude of ozone trends are similar to previous analyses (2000–2020 trends). Ozone trends in 2000–2024 predicted by chemistry-climate model simulations are in good agreement with combined satellite trends. In the upper stratosphere, models predict a slightly stronger ozone recovery than observations. In the lower stratosphere, both models and satellite observations report negative trends in the tropics, while modelled ozone trends are slightly positive at mid-latitudes. Ozone profile trends over several stations estimated from ground-based records capture the same overall vertical pattern of ozone trends as merged gridded satellite datasets. Analyses of regional ozone profile trends in 2003–2024 using merged satellite datasets confirmed the previous observations of a longitudinal structure in ozone trends in the NH mid-latitude stratosphere, with positive trends over Scandinavia and negative trends over Siberia. However, the magnitude of this dipole-like structure is reduced compared to previous analyses.

trends↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Introduction to the JPSS-2 Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) Government Calibration Data Book (GCDB)

The third Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) is an instrument onboard the Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS), JPSS-2 (renamed NOAA-21 in orbit) mission. This report is to introduce the JPSS-2 Government Calibration Data Book (J2 GCDB) for ATMS, SN 304. This J2 GCDB document contains key information generated during the calibration testing campaign that is driving parameters for radiometric performance. This document also contains supporting data that augments the calibration results. The values in this document are utilized by ATMS’s calibration packet which is, in turn, an integral component in the interpretation of science data. The calibration data in this report was collected from tests such as shelf-level testing, antenna testing, instrument thermal vacuum (TVAC) testing; satellite TVAC testing; and JPSS-2 post-launch tests. JPSS-2 was launched on November 10, 2022. In the subsequent years, the Government will release an ATMS GCDB for each JPSS mission. We expect that all public users can download these ATMS GCDBs from the NOAA operational Integrated Calibration and Validation System (ICVS) website, see more discussions below. The goal of this GCDB is to demonstrate how to characterize ATMS measurements using JPSS-2 ATMS on-orbit operational data and to provide relevant explanations. This document serves as a primary public domain reference for calibrating operational ATMS Raw Data Records (RDR) science data, as used in the current operational Interface Data Processing Segment (IDPS) system. This same RDR science data is distributed through direct broadcast (DB) to DB users for use in their ground processing systems. This J2 GCDB provides the results of the ATMS system radiometric calibration, the antenna flat reflector emissivity [1], the antenna pattern measurements, the antenna pattern corrected brightness temperature [2], the brightness temperature of the lunar disk [3], Lunar Intrusion (LI) correction algorithm [4], receiver spectral parameters, and mechanical alignment on-orbit pointing results, and the striping effect appeared significantly in S-NPP on-orbit radiance data when the data are compared to the Radiative Transfer Model (RTM) simulation in numerical weather prediction (NWP) system [5]. It also provides the parameters required for conversion of telemetry counts to engineering units, for radiometric calibration, and for antenna beam geo-location. Moreover, it provides JPSS-2 ATMS Spectral Response Functions data, some additional information related to ATMS on-orbit performance, on-orbit lunar intrusion correction parameters and Earth contamination bias, and on how to derive ATMS RDR, antenna Temperature Data Records (TDR), and Sensor Data Records (SDR). Furthermore, an introduction of NOAA operational Integrated Calibration and Validation System (ICVS) website and services is added in this J2 GCDB. This ICVS hosts a long-term monitoring system which allows to visualization and comparison of data from JPSS missions, NOAA legacy Polar Operational Environmental Satellites (POES), and Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES). From NOAA Comprehensive Large Array-data Stewardship System (CLASS), the public users can download all JPSS ATMS data products for all JPSS missions.

Microwave Sounder↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Examination of Regional Trends in Low Level Cloud Properties Found in the Aqua-MODIS Satellite Record

Clouds have a pronounced influence on the Earth?s climate. Relative to cloud free conditions, they cool the planet by increasing the amount of solar radiation reflected back to space and reducing the amount of sunlight reaching the surface, but they warm the planet by decreasing the amount of thermal infrared radiation escaping to space and increasing the amount reaching the surface (a greenhouse effect). The global mean net cloud radiative effect (CRE) is about -20 W/m2, a cooling effect at both the top-ofatmosphere and surface. Given the magnitude of CRE?s, it is expected that changes in cloud properties could be a significant factor in climate change due to anthropogenic forcing?s, yet cloud feedbacks are not well known and remain one of the largest uncertainties in climate prediction. This paper explores relationships between coincident observations of atmospheric aerosols, clouds and radiation derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and from the Clouds and the Earth?s Radiant Energy System (CERES) instruments on the Aqua satellite. We investigate several interesting regional trends that have emerged in the nearly 18-year satellite record that suggest correlation between changes in low-level cloud properties and changes in aerosol optical depth that may be associated with changes in pollution emissions and possibly with other factors. MERRA reanalysis of meteorological conditions and aerosol particulate species are investigated to help better understand the potential mechanisms responsible for the observed cloud property trends. Finally, we analyze a new CERES flux by cloud type dataset in order to try and isolate the associated trends in low-level cloud radiative effects. It is anticipated that this study using long-term observations of clouds, aerosols and radiative fluxes combined with model reanalysis data will contribute to an improved understanding of cloud climate feedbacks.

William L Smith Jr.↗