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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records

Infusing Statistical Thinking into the NASA Quesst Community Test Campaign

Statistical thinking permeates many important decisions as NASA plans its Quesst mission, which will culminate in a series of community overflights using the X-59 aircraft to demonstrate low-noise supersonic flight. Month-long longitudinal surveys will be deployed to assess human perception and annoyance to this new acoustic phenomenon. NASA works with a large contractor team to develop systems and methodologies to estimate noise doses, to test and field socio-acoustic surveys, and to study the relationship between the two quantities, dose and response, through appropriate choices of statistical models. This latter dose-response relationship will serve as an important tool as national and international noise regulators debate whether overland supersonic flights could be permitted once again within permissible noise limits. In this presentation we highlight several areas where statistical thinking has come into play, including issues of sampling, classification and data fusion, and analysis of longitudinal survey data that are subject to rare events and the consequences of measurement error. We note several operational constraints that shape the appeal or feasibility of some decisions on statistical approaches, and we identify several important remaining questions to be addressed.

Bayesian model↗

Demographic Microsimulator for Integrated Urban Systems: Adapting Panel Survey of Income Dynamics to Capture the Continuum of Life

Agent-based models (ABMs) in transportation modeling simulate activity and travel decisions at the disaggregate level of households and individuals. To do this, ABMs require detailed and realistic information on agents’ socioeconomic and demographic characteristics. Various synthetic population generators have been proposed to address this need. However, most of those currently in practice are cross-sectional in nature and do not account for the dynamics within households and individuals as they progress through life events over time. This is a major shortcoming, as literature has shown that transportation decisions are affected by the transition between and co-occurrence of life cycle events. While some demographic evolution simulators have been proposed to address this issue, they are developed using cross-sectional data and capture only a small set of life cycle events and their interdependence. Addressing these drawbacks, we propose a demographic microsimulator (DEMOS) that captures the “continuum of life” by considering a range of household- and individual-level life cycle events. DEMOS is developed using the Panel Survey of Income Dynamics, one of the world’s longest-running longitudinal surveys. The DEMOS submodels consider key life cycle events that are influenced by agents’ demographic variables. DEMOS is applied to evolve the population of the San Francisco Bay Area over a 9-year horizon. Results demonstrate how DEMOS generates life trajectories and how DEMOS outputs match the observed demographic trends. DEMOS is expected to enable longitudinal analysis in the context of ABMs and expand ABMs analyses relating to dynamic processes such as household-level vehicle transactions.

Demographic evolution↗

Experiment Design Considerations for Longitudinal Community Noise Surveys

NASA is planning community noise surveys in the coming years to collect data that might enable the return of overland supersonic flight. Community noise surveys are typically cross-sectional, with only a single response per respondent. However, to determine community response to individual supersonic overflights, longitudinal surveys with repeated responses per respondent are more practical. The downside of repeated responses is the potential for response bias, such as a carryover effect in which previous test conditions affect current behavior. Subjective sonic boom listening test data collected at NASA Langley Research Center were reanalyzed to look for evidence of carryover effects. Initial results do not suggest strong carryover effects. This presentation will provide results and suggestions for experiment design of future community surveys.

X-59↗

Demographic Microsimulator for Integrated Urban Systems: Adapting Panel Survey of Income Dynamics to Capture the Continuum of Life

Agent-based models (ABMs) simulate activity and travel decisions at the disaggregate level of households, and individuals. To do this, ABMs require detailed information pertaining to socioeconomic and demographic characteristics of individuals. Various synthetic population generators (SPGs) have been proposed to address this need. However, most of the SPGs currently in practice are cross-sectional in nature, and do not account for the interrelationships among household's or individual's life progression. This is a major shortcoming of SPGs as literature has shown that transportation decisions are impacted by lifecycle events that unfold over a span of time. While some demographic evolution simulators have been proposed to address this shortcoming, they: i) are developed using cross-sectional data, ii) do not capture the full spectrum of lifecycle events and their interdependency. Overcoming these drawbacks, this paper proposes a Demographic Microsimulator (DEMOS) which captures the 'continuum of life' by accounting for a range of household-, and individual-level lifecycle events. DEMOS is developed using the Panel Survey of Income Dynamics, which is one of the world's longest running longitudinal surveys. DEMOS sub-models consider key lifecycle events which are influenced by a host of demographic variables. The whole framework is applied to evolve the population of San Francisco Bay Area over a 9-year horizon. Results indicate that the household and individual evolution are tightly connected, and that the structural framework (i.e., model sequencing) is a key element in capturing the population trend accurately.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗

Tropospheric nitric oxide measurements over the Amazon Basin

Horizontal and vertical distributions of nitric oxide (NO) were measured over the Amazon Basin during NASA's Global Tropospheric Experiment (GTE) Amazon Boundary Layer Experiment mission in July-August 1985. During transit flights between the Virginia coast and Manaus, Brazil, NO mixing ratios were 12-15 pptv at 5 km altitude. Values up to 200 pptv were observed in electrically active clouds. During longitudinal surveys over the Amazon region, NO mixing ratios in the lower planetary boundary layer decreased from 25-60 pptv over the central basin to 10-12 pptv in coastal regions. In the convective cloud layer or free troposphere, NO mixing ratios averaged 13 pptv in regions not influenced by biomass burning. No longitudinal trend above the mixed layer could be detected. A steep negative gradient with increasing altitude was noted within the mixed layer before midday. Mixing ratios decreased from 60 pptv at 0.2 km to about 15 pptv at the top of the mixed layer (1 km). By midday, growth of the mixed layer height and enhanced mixing reduced the gradient, and evidence for mixing of NO into the convective cloud layer was noted.

Torres, A. L.↗

Will Consumers Really Pay for Green Electricity? Comparing Stated and Revealed Preferences for Residential Programs in the United States

Public support is growing for policy initiatives to spur a transition from a fossil to renewable energy portfolio in the electricity sector. Some utilities in the United States offer programs that allow consumers to voluntarily pay premiums (0.1-7.0 cents/kWh) for electricity from renewable sources. However, it is unclear whether public support translates to paying for green electricity if given the option. Our analysis employs data from two national, longitudinal surveys on energy attitudes and willingness to pay for renewables to investigate whether environmental concerns and stated preferences for renewable energy translate to consumer behavior as measured through ratepayer participation in voluntary utility renewable energy programs known as utility green pricing. We find higher green pricing program participation rates in areas where consumers have stronger feelings about the environmental impacts of energy. Consumers in high-participation areas also have a higher stated willingness to pay for renewable energy, on average, than consumers in low-participation areas. We also find income, homeownership, and home value explain some of the difference between high- and low-participation programs. Further, program participation is lower in areas where utilities charge higher green pricing program premiums. These findings suggest that green power programs - such as utility green pricing - offer a market-based mechanism for consumers to realize their desire to purchase renewable energy. Policymakers may use these results to support further expansion of green power programs in areas where customers currently lack accessible and affordable options to act on their environmental beliefs and concerns.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

International Space Station Air Quality Assessed According to Toxicologically-Grouped Compounds

Scores of compounds are found in the International Space Station (ISS) atmospheric samples that are returned to the Johnson Space Center Toxicology Laboratory for analysis. Spacecraft Maximum Allowable Concentrations (SMACs) are set with the view that each compound is present as if there were no other compounds present. In order to apply SMACs to the interpretation of the analytical data, the toxicologist must employ some method of combining the potential effects of the aggregate of compounds found in the atmospheric samples. The simplest approach is to assume that each quantifiable compound has the potential for some effect in proportion to the applicable SMAC, and then add all the proportions. This simple paradigm disregards the fact that most compounds have potential to adversely affect only a few physiological systems, and their effects would be independent rather than additive. An improved approach to dealing with exposure to mixtures is to add the proportions only for compounds that adversely affect the same physiological system. For example, toxicants that cause respiratory irritation are separated from those that cause neurotoxicity or cardio-toxicity. Herein we analyze ISS air quality data according to toxicological groups with a view that this could be used for understanding any crew symptoms occurring at the time of the sample. In addition, this approach could be useful in post-flight longitudinal surveys where the flight surgeon may need to identify post-flight, follow-up medical studies because of on-orbit exposures that target specific physiological systems.

James, John T.↗

International Space Station Air Quality Assessed According to Toxicologically-Grouped Compounds

Scores of compounds are found in the International Space Station (ISS) atmospheric samples that are returned to the Johnson Space Center Toxicology Laboratory for analysis. Spacecraft Maximum Allowable Concentrations (SMACs) are set with the view that each compound is present as if there were no other compounds present. In order to apply SMACs to the interpretation of the analytical data, the toxicologist must employ some method of combining the potential effects of the aggregate of compounds found in the atmospheric samples. The simplest approach is to assume that each quantifiable compound has the potential for some effect in proportion to the applicable SMAC, and then add all the proportions. This simple paradigm disregards the fact that most compounds have potential to adversely affect only a few physiological systems, and their effects would be independent rather than additive. An improved approach to dealing with exposure to mixtures is to add the proportions only for compounds that adversely affect the same physiological system. For example, toxicants that cause respiratory irritation are separated from those that cause neurotoxicity or cardio-toxicity. Herein we analyze ISS air quality data according to toxicological groups with a view that this could be used for understanding any crew symptoms occurring at the time of the sample acquisition. In addition, this approach could be useful in post-flight longitudinal surveys where the flight surgeon may need to identify post-flight, follow-up medical studies because of on-orbit exposures that target specific physiological systems.

James, John T.↗

A Guideline for the Management of Renal Stones in Astronauts

There are no specific guidelines for the management of renal stones in astronauts. Given the increased risk for bone loss, hypercalcuria, and stone formation due to microgravity, a clinical practice guideline is needed. Methods An extensive review of the literature and current aeromedical standards for the management of renal stones was done. The NASA Flight Medicine Clinic's electronic medical record and Longitudinal Survey of Astronaut Health were also reviewed. This information was used to create an algorithm for the management of renal stones in astronauts. Results Guidelines are proposed based on accepted standards of care, with consideration to the environment of spaceflight. In a usual medical setting, asymptomatic, small stones less than 7 mm are often observed over time. Given the constraints of schedule, and the risks to crew health and mission, this approach is too liberal. An upper limit of 3 mm stone diameter was adopted before requiring intervention, because this is the largest size that has a significant chance of spontaneous passage on its own. Other specific guidelines were also created. Discussion The spaceflight environment requires more aggressive treatment than would otherwise be found with the usual practice of medicine. A small stone can become a major problem because it may ultimately require medical evacuation from orbit. Thus renal stones are a significant mission threat and should be managed in a systematic way to mitigate risks to crew health and mission success.

Reyes, David↗

Management of Asymptomatic Renal Stones in Astronauts

Introduction: Management guidelines were created to screen and manage asymptomatic renal stones in U.S. astronauts. The risks for renal stone formation in astronauts due to bone loss and hypercalcuria are unknown. Astronauts have a stone risk which is about the same as commercial aviation pilots, which is about half that of the general population. However, proper management of this condition is still crucial to mitigate health and mission risks in the spaceflight environment. Methods: An extensive review of the literature and current aeromedical standards for the monitoring and management of renal stones was done. The NASA Flight Medicine Clinic's electronic medical record and Longitudinal Survey of Astronaut Health were also reviewed. Using this work, a screening and management algorithm was created that takes into consideration the unique operational environment of spaceflight. Results: Renal stone screening and management guidelines for astronauts were created based on accepted standards of care, with consideration to the environment of spaceflight. In the proposed algorithm, all astronauts will receive a yearly screening ultrasound for renal calcifications, or mineralized renal material (MRM). Any areas of MRM, 3 millimeters or larger, are considered a positive finding. Three millimeters approaches the detection limit of standard ultrasound, and several studies have shown that any stone that is 3 millimeters or less has an approximately 95 percent chance of spontaneous passage. For mission-assigned astronauts, any positive ultrasound study is followed by low-dose renal computed tomography (CT) scan, and flexible ureteroscopy if CT is positive. Other specific guidelines were also created. Discussion: The term "MRM" is used to account for small areas of calcification that may be outside the renal collecting system, and allows objectivity without otherwise constraining the diagnostic and treatment process for potentially very small calcifications of uncertain significance. However, a small asymptomatic MRM or stone within the renal collecting system may become symptomatic, and so affect launch and flight schedules, cause incapacitation during flight, and ultimately require medical evacuation. For exploration class missions, evacuation is unlikely. The new screening and management algorithm allows better management of mission risks, and will define the true incidence of renal stones in U.S. astronauts. This information will be used to refine future screening, countermeasures and treatment methods; and will also inform the needed capabilities to be flown on exploration-class missions.

Reyes, David↗

Management of Asymptomatic Renal Stones in Astronauts

Introduction: Management guidelines were created to screen and manage asymptomatic renal stones in U.S. astronauts. The risks for renal stone formation in astronauts due to bone loss and hypercalcuria are unknown. Astronauts have a stone risk which is about the same as commercial aviation pilots, which is about half that of the general population. However, proper management of this condition is still crucial to mitigate health and mission risks in the spaceflight environment. Methods: An extensive review of the literature and current aeromedical standards for the monitoring and management of renal stones was done. The NASA Flight Medicine Clinic's electronic medical record and Longitudinal Survey of Astronaut Health were also reviewed. Using this work, a screening and management algorithm was created that takes into consideration the unique operational environment of spaceflight. Results: Renal stone screening and management guidelines for astronauts were created based on accepted standards of care, with consideration to the environment of spaceflight. In the proposed algorithm, all astronauts will receive a yearly screening ultrasound for renal calcifications, or mineralized renal material (MRM). Any areas of MRM, 3 millimeters or larger, are considered a positive finding. Three millimeters approaches the detection limit of standard ultrasound, and several studies have shown that any stone that is 3 millimeters or less has an approximately 95 percent chance of spontaneous passage. For mission-assigned astronauts, any positive ultrasound study is followed by low-dose renal computed tomography (CT) scan, and flexible ureteroscopy if CT is positive. Other specific guidelines were also created. Discussion: The term "MRM" is used to account for small areas of calcification that may be outside the renal collecting system, and allows objectivity without otherwise constraining the diagnostic and treatment process for potentially very small calcifications of uncertain significance. However, a small asymptomatic MRM or stone within the renal collecting system may become symptomatic, and so affect launch and flight schedules, cause incapacitation during flight, and ultimately require medical evacuation. For exploration class missions, evacuation is unlikely. The new screening and management algorithm allows better management of mission risks, and will define the true incidence of renal stones in U.S. astronauts. This information will be used to refine future screening, countermeasures and treatment methods; and will also inform the needed capabilities to be flown on exploration-class missions.

Reyes, David↗

Derivation of the Most Influential Medical Conditions for An Extended Duration Artemis Mission

BACKGROUND: The risk of loss of mission due to medical conditions may be influenced by loss of crew life (LOCL), need for evacuation (RTDC; return to definitive care), and crew task time lost. Predicting what medical conditions are most likely to lead to crew morbidity and mortality may influence medical system design, clinical capability prioritization, and research strategies. NASA’s Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces tool (IMPACT) applies Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) methodology to assess these risks. OVERVIEW: A team of subject matter experts (SME) from a variety of medical disciplines developed a consensus-based process to determine 120 of the most clinically relevant medical conditions for long-duration exploration missions (LDEMs) . This IMPACT Condition List (ICL) expanded upon previous work done for Integrated Medical Model (IMM). For each condition a best-case and worst-case definition were derived. These definitions were used to identify probability of occurrence, proportion of cases that are best case vs. worst case, clinical phase duration, and risk of outcomes (task time loss [TTL], RTDC, and LOCL) for both treated and untreated states. These data were sources from existing spaceflight databases (e.g. Longitudinal Survey of Astronaut Health), relevant models (e.g. the ISS fire model), and/or terrestrial literature. Each condition was then tied to diagnostic and therapeutic resources and capabilities. IMPACT was then run for the LDLOLS DRM (see Abstract #2 for this panel). DISCUSSION: This abstract will present the process for generating the IMPACT condition list, the relevant data for each clinical condition, and present results for the ten most influential conditions impacting LOCL, RTDC, and TTL for a representative extended duration Artemis mission.

A Nelson↗

Mitigating the Impacts of Measurement Error in the Quesst Mission Community Noise Study

Beginning in 2025, the NASA Quesst mission will conduct a series of community response tests involving flyovers of the X-59 aircraft at select localities across the United States. Several waves of a longitudinal survey will be administered over approximately one month of testing in order to capture perceptual responses to low-amplitude sonic booms, or “sonic thumps”. Simultaneously, noise exposure levels will be estimated by fusing model-based predictions with measurements taken from a sparse network of monitors in the region. As one of the aims of the study is to produce a dose-response curve, a regression model relating perceptual response to noise exposure levels, it is important to acknowledge the potential attenuation bias that results from measurement error in the estimated noise exposure levels. In this presentation we review and compare several methods for dealing with measurement error in generalized linear mixed models. The methods are demonstrated on simulated data and real data collected during past NASA risk reduction studies.

measurement error↗

Learning From User Behavior: A Survey-Assist Algorithm for Longitudinal Mobility Data Collection

GPS-based travel surveys are widely used in mobility studies to gather crucial qualitative data, like purpose, transportation mode and replaced mode. However, survey response still poses a burden to users, especially in long-term mobility studies, leading to response fatigue. We explore a survey-assist strategy to ease this burden by a novel, user-level modeling approach that leverages past responses from each user to predict responses for new trips, without relying on external data sources like GIS data. We investigate three main algorithms for predicting responses: (i) clustering trips and extrapolating responses for similar trips, (ii) using random forest classification, and (iii) clustering that uses a hybrid algorithm to determine spatial structure, which is then fed as input to a classic random forest classifier. The clustering approach can flexibly predict responses for even complex qualitative survey questions; it achieved F-scores of 65%. The random forest pipeline uses architecture that restricts it to predicting three predetermined survey questions: trip purpose, mode, and replaced mode. However, it achieved F-scores of 78%. While the survey-assist approach has been implemented by several proprietary systems, to our knowledge, this is the first exploration in the academic literature. It follows that this is also the first rigorous evaluation of multiple algorithms that can implement the approach. The evaluation uses a large scale, publicly available, longitudinal dataset consisting of ~ 92k trips from 235 users over a period of roughly one and a half years. With this approach, travel surveys can be pre-filled with the predicted responses for each trip, thus streamlining the survey process for users. Combined with an active learning system that requests user input on low-confidence predictions, models can be updated and improved over time to better support the long-term collection of longitudinal qualitative data.

clustering↗

1990 Seattle Household Travel Survey Wave 2

The Seattle Household Travel Survey Wave 2, conducted in 1990, was the second wave in a 10-part longitudinal panel survey of the travel patterns of households in the Puget Sound region of Washington state. The survey series was initiated in 1989 by the Puget Sound Regional Council. Data collection for the second wave took place in the fall of 1990, which included full interviews and travel diaries, as well as some panel refreshment. Demographic and work trip data updates, but no travel diaries, were gathered for 2,023 households in four counties in the Seattle area. The survey relied on the willingness of study area residents to 1) provide demographic information about their household, its members, and its vehicles; 2) document all travel for each household member, aged 15 years or older, for an assigned two-day period; and 3) agree to participate in additional survey waves. After an initial telephone screening, survey participants received mailed travel diaries to aid in documenting travel information for the two-day assessment period. Respondents were instructed to record their mode of transportation, trip purpose, number of passengers, departure and arrival times, ride fare, and parking costs. Demographic information for this study includes age, gender, education, employment status, and household income.

1Hz data↗

1989 Seattle Household Travel Survey Wave 1

The Puget Sound Transportation Panel was initiated in the fall of 1989. The Seattle Household Travel Survey Wave 1, conducted in 1989, was the first wave in a ten-part longitudinal panel survey initiated by the Puget Sound Regional Council to assess the travel patterns of households in the Puget Sound region of Washington state. The panel intended to serve three basic objectives: 1) to be a metropolitan “current population survey” to track changes in employment, work characteristics, household composition, and vehicle availability; 2) to monitor changes in travel behavior and responses to changes in the transportation environment; and 3) to examine changes in attitudes and values as they affect mode choice and travel behavior. This collection contains the first set of panel data for households in King, Kitsap, Pierce, and Snohomish counties. A total of 1,687 households successfully completed a phone survey and returned completed travel diaries for household members age 15 and older. Respondents were instructed to record their mode of transportation, trip purpose, number of vehicle passengers, departure and arrival times, ride fare, and parking costs in a two-day trip diary. Demographic information for this study includes age, gender, education, employment status, and household income.

1Hz data↗