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At least 19 records

Performance impacts of look-ahead execution in the conversation scheme

The look-ahead execution approach, which allows participant processes that exist early to exit from a conversation before other participants finish their conversation activities, is presented here as a fundamental approach to reducing the synchronization overhead. Queuing network models are developed for systems operating under the basic conversation execution scheme and systems operating under the look-ahead execution scheme. Based on the models, various performance indicators such as the system throughput, the average number of processors idling inside a conversation due to the synchronization required, and the average time spent in conversation are evaluated numerically for different application environments. The results provide insights into the extent of benefits provided by the look-ahead execution approach.

Kim, K. H.↗

Minimum deltaV Burn Planning for the International Space Station Using a Hybrid Optimization Technique, Level 1

The International Space Station's (ISS) trajectory is coordinated and executed by the Trajectory Operations and Planning (TOPO) group at NASA's Johnson Space Center. TOPO group personnel routinely generate look-ahead trajectories for the ISS that incorporate translation burns needed to maintain its orbit over the next three to twelve months. The burns are modeled as in-plane, horizontal burns, and must meet operational trajectory constraints imposed by both NASA and the Russian Space Agency. In generating these trajectories, TOPO personnel must determine the number of burns to model, each burn's Time of Ignition (TIG), and magnitude (i.e. deltaV) that meet these constraints. The current process for targeting these burns is manually intensive, and does not take advantage of more modern techniques that can reduce the workload needed to find feasible burn solutions, i.e. solutions that simply meet the constraints, or provide optimal burn solutions that minimize the total DeltaV while simultaneously meeting the constraints. A two-level, hybrid optimization technique is proposed to find both feasible and globally optimal burn solutions for ISS trajectory planning. For optimal solutions, the technique breaks the optimization problem into two distinct sub-problems, one for choosing the optimal number of burns and each burn's optimal TIG, and the other for computing the minimum total deltaV burn solution that satisfies the trajectory constraints. Each of the two aforementioned levels uses a different optimization algorithm to solve one of the sub-problems, giving rise to a hybrid technique. Level 2, or the outer level, uses a genetic algorithm to select the number of burns and each burn's TIG. Level 1, or the inner level, uses the burn TIGs from Level 2 in a sequential quadratic programming (SQP) algorithm to compute a minimum total deltaV burn solution subject to the trajectory constraints. The total deltaV from Level 1 is then used as a fitness function by the genetic algorithm in Level 2 to select the number of burns and their TIGs for the next generation. In this manner, the two levels solve their respective sub-problems separately but collaboratively until a burn solution is found that globally minimizes the deltaV across the entire trajectory. Feasible solutions can also be found by simply using the SQP algorithm in Level 1 with a zero cost function. This paper discusses the formulation of the Level 1 sub-problem and the development of a prototype software tool to solve it. The Level 2 sub-problem will be discussed in a future work. Following the Level 1 formulation and solution, several look-ahead trajectory examples for the ISS are explored. In each case, the burn targeting results using the current process are compared against a feasible solution found using Level 1 in the proposed technique. Level 1 is then used to find a minimum deltaV solution given the fixed number of burns and burn TIGs. The optimal solution is compared with the previously found feasible solution to determine the deltaV (and therefore propellant) savings. The proposed technique seeks to both improve the current process for targeting ISS burns, and to add the capability to optimize ISS burns in a novel fashion. The optimal solutions found using this technique can potentially save hundreds of kilograms of propellant over the course of the ISS mission compared to feasible solutions alone. While the software tool being developed to implement this technique is specific to ISS, the concept is extensible to other long-duration, central-body orbiting missions that must perform orbit maintenance burns to meet operational trajectory constraints.

Brown, Aaron J.↗

Formally biorthogonal polynomials and a look-ahead Levinson algorithm for general Toeplitz systems

Systems of linear equations with Toeplitz coefficient matrices arise in many important applications. The classical Levinson algorithm computes solutions of Toeplitz systems with only O(n(sub 2)) arithmetic operations, as compared to O(n(sub 3)) operations that are needed for solving general linear systems. However, the Levinson algorithm in its original form requires that all leading principal submatrices are nonsingular. An extension of the Levinson algorithm to general Toeplitz systems is presented. The algorithm uses look-ahead to skip over exactly singular, as well as ill-conditioned leading submatrices, and, at the same time, it still fully exploits the Toeplitz structure. In our derivation of this algorithm, we make use of the intimate connection of Toeplitz matrices with formally biorthogonal polynomials.

Freund, Roland W.↗

Surveillance Range and Interference Impacts on Self-Separation Performance

Self-separation is a concept of flight operations that aims to provide user benefits and increase airspace capacity by transferring traffic separation responsibility from ground-based controllers to the flight crew. Self-separation is enabled by cooperative airborne surveillance, such as that provided by the Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADSB) system and airborne separation assistance technologies. This paper describes an assessment of the impact of ADS-B system performance on the performance of self-separation as a step towards establishing far-term ADS-B performance requirements. Specifically, the impacts of ADS-B surveillance range and interference limitations were analyzed under different traffic density levels. The analysis was performed using a batch simulation of aircraft performing self-separation assisted by NASA s Autonomous Operations Planner prototype flight-deck tool, in two-dimensional airspace. An aircraft detected conflicts within a look-ahead time of ten minutes and resolved them using strategic closed trajectories or tactical open maneuvers if the time to loss of separation was below a threshold. While a complex interaction was observed between the impacts of surveillance range and interference, as both factors are physically coupled, self-separation performance followed expected trends. An increase in surveillance range resulted in a decrease in the number of conflict detections, an increase in the average conflict detection lead time, and an increase in the percentage of conflict resolutions that were strategic. The majority of the benefit was observed when surveillance range was increased to a value corresponding to the conflict detection look-ahead time. The benefits were attenuated at higher interference levels. Increase in traffic density resulted in a significant increase in the number of conflict detections, as expected, but had no effect on the conflict detection lead time and the percentage of conflict resolutions that were strategic. With surveillance range corresponding to ADS-B minimum operational performance standards for Class A3 equipment and without background interference, a significant portion of conflict resolutions, 97 percent, were achieved in the preferred strategic mode. The majority of conflict resolutions, 71 percent, were strategic even with very high interference (over three times that expected in 2035).

Idris, Husni↗

Health Management and Prognostics for Electric Aircraft Powertrain

W and c Any air borne vehicle needs incorporating safety as key parameter of measure, and inclusion of autonomy raises the critical need for safety under autonomous operations. Management of faults and component degradation is key as complexity in autonomous operations grow over the period of time. Therefore, in addition to basic operational requirements, an autonomous electric vehicle should be able to make accurate estimates of its current system health and take the correct decisions to complete its mission successfully. Real-time safety and state-awareness tools are therefore essential for the vehicle to be able to reach its destination in a safe and successful manner. The need for safety assurance and health management capabilities is particularly relevant for aircraft electric propulsion systems, which are relatively new and with limited historical to learn. They are critical systems requiring high power density along with reliability, resilience, efficient management of weight, and operational costs. A model- based fault diagnosis and prognostics approach of complex critical systems can successfully accomplish the safety and state awareness goal for such electric propulsion systems, enabling autonomous decision making capability for safe and efficient operation. To identify critical components in the system a Qualitative Bayesian approach using FMECA is implemented. This requires the assessment of some quantities representing the state of the electric unmanned aerial systems (e-UAS), as well as look-ahead forecasts of such states during the entire flight, presented in form of safety metrics (SM). In-service data and performance data gathered from degraded components sup- ports diagnostic and prognostic methods for these systems, but this data can be difficult to obtain as weight and packaging restrictions reduce redundancy and instrumentation on-board the vehicle. Therefore, an model-based framework should be capable or operating with limited data. In addition to data scarcity, the variability of such complex critical systems re- quires the model-based framework to reason in the presence of uncertainty, such as sensor noise, and modeling imperfections. Quantification of errors and uncertainties in the measured states and quantities is therefore a fundamental step for a precise estimation of such SMs; un-modeled uncertainty may result in erroneous state assessment and un- reliable predictions of future states of e-UAVs. Typical, centralized model-based schemes suffer from inherent disadvantages such as computational complexity, single point of failure, and scalability issues, and therefore may fail in such a complex scenario. This paper presents a methodology for developing a system level diagnostics and prognostics approach using a Qualitative Bayesian FMECA approach along with a formal uncertainty management framework for an e-UAS. In this work we demonstrate the efficacy of the framework to predict effects of sub-system level degradation on vehicle operation incorporating uncertainty management to predict future behavior under different operating conditions.

Kulkarni, Chetan↗

Evaluating the Impacts of Coordination for Cascaded Hydropower Plants on the Mid-Columbia

The Mid-Columbia region in the U.S. Pacific Northwest includes seven large, cascaded hydropower plants with a combined nameplate capacity of nearly 14 GW. These plants have several different operators, and there is currently limited coordination among the operators. We develop a detailed model of the Mid-Columbia system that captures both river flow constraints and power system operations. We then place this detailed model within a production cost model of a 2030 system of the Western Interconnection to evaluate how coordination of the Mid-Columbia hydropower plants might impact operations throughout the interconnection. We find that coordination of the Mid-Columbia plants leads to more generation from the Mid-Columbia plants and increased revenues for the Mid-Columbia operators. This benefit is achieved primarily through better utilization of the storage reservoirs and decreased spill through the cascade. We also evaluate the impacts of look-ahead on production costs and find that longer look-ahead values result in lower system-wide production costs.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Intent Modeling and Conflict Probability Calculation for Operations in Upper Class E Airspace

This work presents a probabilistic operational intent model for vehicles operating in upper Class E airspace. A hybrid method is developed to calculate the intent conflict probability leveraging and extending past works on probabilistic conflict computation. Simulation results verify that the probabilistic intent model can accurately encompass the uncertain positions of each vehicle type, that are a result of wind prediction errors and vehicle performance. A comparison with past methods showed that the proposed hybrid method captures the intent conflict probability with better accuracy, especially for a larger look-ahead horizon, and computational time is reasonable for real-time applications. An example is presented to illustrate the use of the intent conflict probability in strategic planning applications.

Air traffic management, operational intent, confli↗

Uncertainty Propagation in Pre-Flight Prediction of Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Separation Violation

Current forecasts on the future of aeronautics suggest an in- creasing number of unmanned aerial vehicles entering the low- altitude airspace in the next decades (FAA, 2018; Kopardekar et al., 2016). Small vehicles for package delivery as well as larger vehicles for urban air mobility will change the airspace drastically, increasing density of operations both in time, i.e. high number of take-off and landings per unit time, and in space, operating in dense urban environment. This scenario poses challenges to the current approach to air traffic control, and large efforts from academia, industry and regulatory bodies are dedicated to the development of new traffic management strategies that leverage higher computing and simulating capabilities available today. In this paper, we propose a simple look-ahead approach to predict potential minimum separation violations at the strategic level, that is before vehicles start flying, depending on the predefined 4D trajectories and uncertainty affecting the wind acting along those routes. The wind field is extracted from the NOAA North America Mesoscale Forecast System and interpolated using Gaussian process regression, while uncertainty affecting the expected cruise airspeed is propagated through error intervals. The approach allows the prediction of aircraft separation as a function of time, highlighting potential safety violations that would go undetected if uncertainty affecting the expected 4D trajectories is not considered. The paper will also discuss issues related to accuracy and scalability of the approach to multiple vehicle operations.

Trajectory Prediction↗

Comparison of Selected Weather Translation Products

Weather is a primary contributor to the air traffic delays within the National Airspace System (NAS). At present, it is the individual decision makers who use weather information and assess its operational impact in creating effective air traffic management solutions. As a result, the estimation of the impact of forecast weather and the quality of ATM response relies on the skill and experience level of the decision maker. FAA Weather-ATM working groups have developed a Weather-ATM integration framework that consists of weather collection, weather translation, ATM impact conversion and ATM decision support. Some weather translation measures have been developed for hypothetical operations such as decentralized free flight, whereas others are meant to be relevant in current operations. This paper does comparative study of two different weather translation products relevant in current operations and finds that these products have strong correlation with each other. Given inaccuracies in prediction of weather, these differences would not be expected to be of significance in statistical study of a large number of decisions made with a look-ahead time of two hours or more.

Kulkarni, Deepak↗

International Space Station (ISS) Environmental Control and Life Support (ECLS) System Overview of Events: 2010-2014

Nov 2, 2014 marked the completion of the 14th year of continuous human presence in space on board the International Space Station (ISS). After 42 expedition crews, over 115 assembly & utilization flights, over 180 combined Shuttle/Station, US & Russian Extravehicular Activities (EVAs), the post-Assembly-Complete ISS continues to fly and the engineering teams continue to learn from operating its systems, particularly the life support equipment. Problems with initial launch, assembly and activation of ISS elements have given way to more long term system operating trends. New issues have emerged, some with gestation periods measured in years. Major events and challenges for each U.S. Environmental Control and Life Support (ECLS) subsystem occurring during calendar years 2010 through 2014 are summarily discussed in this paper, along with look-aheads for what might be coming in the future for each U.S. ECLS subsystem.

Gentry, Gregory J.↗

Prediction of Weather Impacts on Airport Arrival Meter Fix Capacity

This paper introduces a data driven model for predicting airport arrival capacity with a look-ahead time 2-8 hour forecast. The model is suitable for air traffic flow management by explicitly investigating the impact of convective weather on airport arrival meter fix throughput. Estimation of the arrival airport capacity under arrival meter fix flow constraints due to severe weather is an important part of Air Traffic Management (ATM). Airport arrival capacity can be reduced if one or more airport arrival meter fixes are partially or completely blocked by convective weather. When the predicted airport arrival demands exceed the predicted available airport's arrival capacity for a sustained period, Ground Delay Program (GDP) operations will be triggered by ATM system. Serious imbalances between demand and capacity occur most frequently when the airport capacity is severely degraded due to either bad airport terminal surface weather or inclement convective weather around airport arrival fixes. A model that predicts the weather-impacted airport arrival meter fix throughput may help ATM personnel to plan GDP operations more efficiently. This paper identifies the characteristics of air traffic flow across arrival meter fixes at Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR). The proposed approach, based on machine-learning methods, is developed to predict the weather impacted EWR arrival Meter Fix (MF) throughput. Sector forecast coverage is used to envision the weather impact on airport arrival MF flow, and the validation is accomplished by using Convective Weather Avoidance Model (CWAM) 0.5 to 2-hour and Collaborative Convective Forecast Product (CCFP) 4 to 8-hour look-ahead forecast data for the period of April-September in 2014. Furthermore, the regression tree ensemble learning of random forests approach for translating a sector forecast coverage model to an EWR arrival meter fix throughput model is examined. The results suggest that ATM decision makers in charge of MF flow control and GDP planning may benefit from adopting the airport arrival meter capacity prediction models to estimate the inclement weather impacts.

Wang, Yao X.↗

POSTMAN: Point of Sail Tacking for Maritime Autonomous Navigation

Waves apply significant forces to small boats, in particular when such vessels are moving at a high speed in severe sea conditions. In addition, small high-speed boats run the risk of diving with the bow into the next wave crest during operations in the wavelengths and wave speeds that are typical for shallow water. In order to mitigate the issues of autonomous navigation in rough water, a hybrid controller called POSTMAN combines the concept of POS (point of sail) tack planning from the sailing domain with a standard PID (proportional-integral-derivative) controller that implements reliable target reaching for the motorized small boat control task. This is an embedded, adaptive software controller that uses look-ahead sensing in a closed loop method to perform path planning for safer navigation in rough waters. State-of-the-art controllers for small boats are based on complex models of the vessel's kinematics and dynamics. They enable the vessel to follow preplanned paths accurately and can theoretically control all of the small boat s six degrees of freedom. However, the problems of bow diving and other undesirable incidents are not addressed, and it is questionable if a six-DOF controller with basically a single actuator is possible at all. POSTMAN builds an adaptive capability into the controller based on sensed wave characteristics. This software will bring a muchneeded capability to unmanned small boats moving at high speeds. Previously, this class of boat was limited to wave heights of less than one meter in the sea states in which it could operate. POSTMAN is a major advance in autonomous safety for small maritime craft.

Huntsberger, Terrance L.↗

Combining Particle Filters and Consistency-Based Approaches for Monitoring and Diagnosis of Stochastic Hybrid Systems

Fault detection and isolation are critical tasks to ensure correct operation of systems. When we consider stochastic hybrid systems, diagnosis algorithms need to track both the discrete mode and the continuous state of the system in the presence of noise. Deterministic techniques like Livingstone cannot deal with the stochasticity in the system and models. Conversely Bayesian belief update techniques such as particle filters may require many computational resources to get a good approximation of the true belief state. In this paper we propose a fault detection and isolation architecture for stochastic hybrid systems that combines look-ahead Rao-Blackwellized Particle Filters (RBPF) with the Livingstone 3 (L3) diagnosis engine. In this approach RBPF is used to track the nominal behavior, a novel n-step prediction scheme is used for fault detection and L3 is used to generate a set of candidates that are consistent with the discrepant observations which then continue to be tracked by the RBPF scheme.

Narasimhan, Sriram↗

Airborne Turbulence Detection and Warning ACLAIM Flight Test Results

The Airborne Coherent Lidar for Advanced Inflight Measurements (ACLAIM) is a NASA/Dryden-lead program to develop and demonstrate a 2 micrometers pulsed Doppler lidar for airborne look-ahead turbulence detection and warning. Advanced warning of approaching turbulence can significantly reduce injuries to passengers and crew aboard commercial airliners. The ACLAIM instrument is a key asset to the ongoing Turbulence component of NASA's Aviation Safety Program, aimed at reducing the accident rate aboard commercial airliners by a factor of five over the next ten years and by a factor of ten over the next twenty years. As well, the advanced turbulence warning capability can prevent "unstarts" in the inlet of supersonic aircraft engines by alerting the flight control computer which then adjusts the engine to operate in a less fuel efficient, and more turbulence tolerant, mode. Initial flight tests of the ACLAIM were completed in March and April of 1998. This paper and presentation gives results from these initial flights, with validated demonstration of Doppler lidar wind turbulence detection several kilometers ahead of the aircraft.

Hannon, Stephen M.↗

Urban Air Mobility Airspace Dynamic Density

Airspace safety must be assured for Urban Air Mobility (UAM) to become reality. Emerging operations need to safely integrate with existing and future air traffic. UAM is anticipated to evolve in stages. Early stages, characterized by low-density operations, may be accommodated by traditional air traffic management approaches. However, to enable the scale of UAM operations necessary to reach ubiquitous integration into daily life, new paradigms that utilize collaborative and automated systems are being considered. Correspondingly, traditional approaches for determining a safe number of simultaneous operations in an airspace must be adapted to suit evolving traffic management paradigms. In this paper, we examine dynamic density as an approach to determine when an airspace is excessively populated, and safety may become compromised. We review previous work on dynamic density as it relates to air traffic controller workload and propose factors that may be more fitting for UAMs. Rather than considering controller workload, we propose factors that suggest increased likelihood of loss of separation and may lead to conflicts that require tactical avoidance maneuvers. In addition to monitoring dynamic density for tactical decision making, we endeavor to predict airspace dynamic density with adequate look-ahead to allow for strategic route selection.

UAM↗

Integrated Traffic Flow Management Decision Making

A generalized approach is proposed to support integrated traffic flow management decision making studies at both the U.S. national and regional levels. It can consider tradeoffs between alternative optimization and heuristic based models, strategic versus tactical flight controls, and system versus fleet preferences. Preliminary testing was accomplished by implementing thirteen unique traffic flow management models, which included all of the key components of the system and conducting 85, six-hour fast-time simulation experiments. These experiments considered variations in the strategic planning look-ahead times, the replanning intervals, and the types of traffic flow management control strategies. Initial testing indicates that longer strategic planning look-ahead times and re-planning intervals result in steadily decreasing levels of sector congestion for a fixed delay level. This applies when accurate estimates of the air traffic demand, airport capacities and airspace capacities are available. In general, the distribution of the delays amongst the users was found to be most equitable when scheduling flights using a heuristic scheduling algorithm, such as ration-by-distance. On the other hand, equity was the worst when using scheduling algorithms that took into account the number of seats aboard each flight. Though the scheduling algorithms were effective at alleviating sector congestion, the tactical rerouting algorithm was the primary control for avoiding en route weather hazards. Finally, the modeled levels of sector congestion, the number of weather incursions, and the total system delays, were found to be in fair agreement with the values that were operationally observed on both good and bad weather days.

Grabbe, Shon R.↗

Detection of Water Hazards for Autonomous Robotic Vehicles

Four methods of detection of bodies of water are under development as means to enable autonomous robotic ground vehicles to avoid water hazards when traversing off-road terrain. The methods involve processing of digitized outputs of optoelectronic sensors aboard the vehicles. It is planned to implement these methods in hardware and software that would operate in conjunction with the hardware and software for navigation and for avoidance of solid terrain obstacles and hazards. The first method, intended for use during the day, is based on the observation that, under most off-road conditions, reflections of sky from water are easily discriminated from the adjacent terrain by their color and brightness, regardless of the weather and of the state of surface waves on the water. Accordingly, this method involves collection of color imagery by a video camera and processing of the image data by an algorithm that classifies each pixel as soil, water, or vegetation according to its color and brightness values (see figure). Among the issues that arise is the fact that in the presence of reflections of objects on the opposite shore, it is difficult to distinguish water by color and brightness alone. Another issue is that once a body of water has been identified by means of color and brightness, its boundary must be mapped for use in navigation. Techniques for addressing these issues are under investigation. The second method, which is not limited by time of day, is based on the observation that ladar returns from bodies of water are usually too weak to be detected. In this method, ladar scans of the terrain are analyzed for returns and the absence thereof. In appropriate regions, the presence of water can be inferred from the absence of returns. Under some conditions in which reflections from the bottom are detectable, ladar returns could, in principle, be used to determine depth. The third method involves the recognition of bodies of water as dark areas in short-wavelength infrared (SWIR) images. This method is based on the fact, well known among experts in remote sensing, that water bodies of any appreciable depth appear very dark in near-infrared, overhead imagery. Even under a thick layer of marine fog, SWIR illumination is present. Hence, this method may work even in the presence of clouds, though it is unlikely to work at night. Snow and ice also exhibit very strong absorption at wavelengths greater than about 1.4 m. Hence, the wavelength range of about 1.5 to 1.6 m might be useable in this method for recognizing water, snow, and ice. One notable drawback of this method is that useful look-ahead distance could be limited by surface reflections. The fourth method, intended for use at night, involves the contrast between water and terrain in thermal-infrared (medium-wavelength infrared) imagery. This method is based on the fact that at night, water is usually warmer than the adjacent terrain. Look-ahead distance could be limited in this method because, for reasons not yet fully understood, water appears to darken in the thermal infrared with increasing distance.

Matthes, Larry↗

Separation at Crossing Waypoints Under Wind Uncertainty in Urban Air Mobility

To enable high-density operations in major metropolitan areas, urban air mobility networks are anticipated to have air traffic management with higher levels of autonomy. To ensure that this type of autonomy is feasible, one of the critical steps from a safety and efficiency perspective is understanding various factors that affect the spatial separation between airborne flights and ensure that these factors can be managed. In terms of separation assurance and scheduling, an important real-world concern is that future states of aircraft cannot be perfectly predicted. The focus of this research paper is to understand how these prediction errors affect separation and scheduling services and to explore mitigation strategies to handle these errors. In this research, we have simulated these types of uncertainty by adding wind-prediction errors to trajectory predictions for separation. With these wind-prediction errors, we decompose the problem into two separate questions. First, using both simulation and analytical methods, we look at conflict-detection-only scenarios to understand how the wind errors affect required minimum temporal separation between crossing flights to ensure a specific spatial separation. Next, we study how trajectory errors effect conflict resolution, and we explore different combinations of scheduling and separation assurance to mitigate the effects of uncertainty between crossing flights. The conflict resolution algorithm aims to minimize necessary temporal separation between crossing flights under uncertainty, still ensuring safety-critical spatial separation. In summary, this research suggests that the required minimum temporal separation at a crossing waypoint is dependent on factors such as inbound crossing angle, the relative angle between wind direction and bearing of each route, wind magnitude, wind magnitude uncertainty, nominal cruise airspeed of aircraft, and look-ahead time of the conflict detection algorithm. This research also suggests that different combinations of scheduling and separation have different qualitative results. Using a combination of strategic, flow-based scheduling, tactical scheduling at crossings, speed control near crossing points, and separation management leads to a system that is insensitive to trajectory prediction errors with high throughput and flexibility for aircraft away from shared resources.

urban air mobility↗