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Geodetic Measurements of Slow-Slip Events Southeast of Parkfield, CA

Tremor and low-frequency earthquakes are presumed to be indicative of surrounding slow, aseismic slip that is often below geodetic detection thresholds. This study uses data from borehole seismometers and long-baseline laser strainmeters to observe both the seismic and geodetic signatures of episodic tremor and slip on the Parkfield region of the San Andreas Fault near Cholame, CA. We note the observed occurrence rates of both the tremors and co-located families of low-frequency earthquakes are not steady but instead exhibit quasiperiodic bursts of increased activity.We show that these periods of elevated seismic activity correlate with statistically significant stacked strain signals consisting of 44 slow-slip events. Modeled individual slow-slip events and their total summed moment, which are constrained by seismic signals and stacked strain, respectively, indicate that the individual moment magnitudes of these events range from $M_w$ 4.6–5.2.We find that the measured geodetic signal likely precedes the seismic signal by several hours, consistent with the aseismic slip preceding and driving the observed seismic tremor activity.We confirm that strike-slip faults, in addition to subduction zones, are capable of producing episodic tremor and slip.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Learning the Low Frequency Earthquake Activity on the Central San Andreas Fault

Abstract Low frequency earthquakes (LFEs) originating below the central San Andreas Fault are associated with slow‐slip beneath the seismogenic zone within the more ductile portion of the crust. Monitoring efforts over 15 years detected >1 million LFEs. We train a gradient boosted tree model using statistical features describing the seismic waveforms to estimate the hourly LFE event count. The burst‐like LFE behavior is reproduced, while lower amplitudes are predicted during the most active periods. The hourly event counts are up to 18% greater than the catalog. The ability to continuously monitor LFE activity provides insight to when geodetic measurements of slow slip are possible, without the need for developing a computational‐intensive template‐matching catalog. Similar waveform statistical features are found between detecting LFEs and tremors, which provides additional evidence tremors are composed of LFEs. The approach extracts information contained in continuous seismic waveforms that might benefit detecting precursory signals.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Profiling the Quito basin (Ecuador) using seismic ambient noise

SUMMARY Quito, the capital of Ecuador, with more than 2.5 M inhabitants, is exposed to a high seismic hazard due to its proximity to the Pacific subduction zone and active crustal faults, both capable of generating significant earthquakes. Furthermore, the city is located in an intermontane piggy-back basin prone to seismic wave amplification. To understand the basin’s seismic response and characterize its geological structure, 20 broad and medium frequency band seismic stations were deployed in Quito’s urban area between May 2016 and July 2018 that continuously recorded ambient seismic noise. We first compute horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratios to determine the resonant frequency distribution in the entire basin. Secondly, we cross-correlate seismic stations operating simultaneously to retrieve interstations surface-wave Green’s functions in the frequency range of 0.1–2 Hz. We find that Love waves travelling in the basin’s longitudinal direction (NNE–SSW) show much clearer correlograms than those from Rayleigh waves. We then compute Love wave phase-velocity dispersion curves and invert them in conjunction with the HVSR curves to obtain shear-wave velocity profiles throughout the city. The inversions highlight a clear difference in the basin’s structure between its northern and southern parts. In the centre and northern areas, the estimated basin depth and mean shear-wave velocity are about 200 m and 1800 ms−1, respectively, showing resonance frequency values between 0.6 and 0.7 Hz. On the contrary, the basement’s depth and shear-wave velocity in the southern part are about 900 m and 2500 ms−1, having a low resonance frequency value of around 0.3 Hz. This difference in structure between the centre-north and the south of the basin explains the spatial distribution of low-frequency seismic amplifications observed during the Mw 7.8 Pedernales earthquake in April 2016 in Quito.

Pacheco, D. (ORCID:0000000282355096)↗

Effective sensor location for detection of change in structural dynamic response

This paper investigates the sensitivity of structural system response to the sensor location by investigating consequences of small changes in the location to the structural system response. The paper discusses how maximum observability (based on mode shape and the participation of that mode in the input provided) drives optimal location. The structural responses were investigated in terms of the g-rms response for various low-frequency inputs (pure sinusoids and real-life inputs such as an earthquake and trains). Results were then analyzed in the context of Modal Contributions Factors (MCF) and changes to the Force-to-response Transfer Functions (TRFs). A modal-matching process is first presented using a Matlab TM -based Finite Element Method (FEM) model of a cantilever beam and instrumentation to determine the location of a small mass based on three different criteria. Subsequently, the structural response is investigated using experiments and the FEM model. The accelerometer of small mass (at 1/3 height) was moved up or down to obtain changes in the structural response (TRF) to various realistic low-frequency inputs. Modal Contribution Factor (MCF) and derivative (slope) of the associated mode-shapes were correlated to the observed changes in TRFs. Results show how optimal sensor locations for detecting change in structural response can be based on the MCFs and the associated mode-shapes.

Woodall, J.↗

Framework for Quantitative Evaluation of Resilience Solutions: An Approach to Determine the Value of Resilience for a Particular Site

The paper provides the approach to providing a benefit cost analysis of energy and water alternatives to provide resilience to extreme events. The approach estimates the costs and returns of providing greater resilience of water and energy infrastructure. Extreme events are defined as high impact, low-frequency events such as, but not limited to, hurricanes, floods, storm surges and earthquakes. The provides justification for hardening water and energy infrastructure. Resilience is defined as “the ability to prepare for and to withstand an extreme event with little or no damage, or to recover more quickly from an extreme event.” The approach can be summarized as follows. The approach requires the development of a baseline with which to compare alternatives. The baseline is used to evaluate the baseline’s resilience to hazards through the probability of the hazard(s), the likelihood of damage from that the hazard through a vulnerability analysis, and the consequence to calculate a cost of the damage. The approach then evaluates proposed mitigation alternatives that would improve the resilience of the system. Each alternative is evaluated based on probability of the hazard, probability of vulnerability and consequence to determine the reduced damage that each alternative presents. The approach includes any monetary and non-monetary benefits that can quantified for each of the alternatives. Non-quantifiable benefits are evaluated based on the relative importance of each alternative to the criteria used to determine how well the alternative meets the goals and objectives of the site/facility. Then, a life cycle cost analysis should be conducted for the baseline and alternatives. Finally, the results of the life cycle analysis should be presented in a decision matrix with cost, net present value, benefit/cost ratios, and any non-monetary criteria ranked to show how well the alternatives met the criteria, weighted with the decision maker’s weights and the results presented.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Testing and Design of Discriminants for Local Seismic Events Recorded during the Redmond Salt Mine Monitoring Experiment

The Redmond Salt Mine (RSM) Monitoring Experiment in Utah was designed to record seismoacoustic data at distances less than 50 km for algorithm testing and development. During the experiment from October 2017 to July 2019, six broadband seismic stations were operating at a time, with three of them having fixed locations for the duration, whereas the three other stations were moved to different locations every one-and-half to two-and-half months. RSM operations consist of nighttime underground blasting several times per week. The RSM is located in proximity to a belt of active seismicity, allowing direct comparison of natural and anthropogenic sources. Using the recorded data set, we built 1373 events with local magnitude (M L ) of -2.4 and lower to 3.3. For 75 blasts (RMEs) from the Redmond Salt Mine and 206 tectonic earthquakes (EQs), both M L and the coda duration magnitude (MC) are well constrained. We used these events to test and design discriminants that separate the RMEs from the EQs and are effective at local distances. The discriminants consist of M L -M C , low-frequency Sg to high-frequency Sg, Pg/Sg phase-amplitude ratios, and Rg/Sg spectral amplitude ratios, as well as different combinations of two or more of these classifiers. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) of 0.92–1.0 for M L -M C , low-frequency Sg to high-frequency Sg, and Rg/Sg indicate that these discriminants are very effective. Conversely, the AUC of only 0.57 for Pg/Sg suggests that this discriminant is only slightly better than a random classifier. Among the effective classifiers, Rg/Sg, shows the lowest likelihood of misclassification (4.3%) for the populations. In conclusion, results of joint discriminant analyses suggest that even the arguably ineffective single classifier, like Pg/Sg in this case, can provide some value when used in combination with others.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A Methodological Overview of Seismic Analysis for Nuclear Event Detection

Underground explosions generate potentially detectable signatures, including energy waves that travel through the Earth’s subsurface (i.e., seismic waves), low-frequency sound waves (i.e., infrasound and hydroacoustic waves), and radioactive gases and/or particles that might leak from the test cavity (if the event was nuclear). There can also be intelligence indicators of a test, such as observations of modified patterns of life and activity at a suspected test site. If all of these detectable signatures and intelligence indicators are present and self-consistent, then analysts have high confidence in classifying a signature generating event as an explosion. However, because only partial information about an event is likely to be available, determining whether an event was natural (e.g., an earthquake or landslide) or manmade (e.g., a chemical or nuclear explosion) is much more challenging. This primer describes how one category of event signatures—seismic signatures—can augment event analyses. While universities and government organizations have generated detailed technical descriptions of seismic analytic techniques, we seek to translate seismic event analysis for a broad, non-technical audience. When the geologic conditions near an event are well-characterized, seismic data can be used to calculate critical information, such as event location and depth, with relatively high accuracy. Moreover, specific features within seismic datasets can help determine whether an event was an explosion. However, a key challenge in seismic analysis is that geologic site conditions are often poorly characterized, complicating the ability to discern the true nature of the event. To overcome this challenge, geologists answer a series of questions (discussed in section 1) to guide seismic event analysis and determine the most probable nature of an event. As more information is gathered during each analytic step, confidence grows regarding the nature of the event. Section 2 addresses uncertainties in seismic analysis and the vital nature of high-fidelity geologic data for accurate seismic event analysis.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Acoustic waves from the 2023 April 20 SpaceX Starship rocket explosion travelling in the elevated ‘AtmoSOFAR’ channel

SUMMARY The ability to detect low-frequency sounds from distant energetic events depends on the temperature and wind structure of the atmosphere. Thus, from time to time surface-based acoustic detectors may not be able to capture sounds arriving from certain directions. However, the temperature minimum at the tropopause may create an acoustic duct called the ‘AtmoSOFAR’ channel that could transmit acoustic waves laterally—but perhaps not to the ground. If true, then elevated sensors such as those borne aloft by balloons would record the signatures even in regions where ground-based sensors cannot. This has been difficult to prove because high altitude acoustic sources are rare and balloon deployments are sporadic. This work describes the detection and characterization of powerful acoustic waves generated during the launch and terminal explosion of the SpaceX Starship rocket on 2023 April 20 using a pair of microbarometers on a stratospheric balloon. The signals travelled through the AtmoSOFAR channel, carrying information about the size and nature of their source. This channel also appears to leak some acoustic energy to the ground, in agreement with previous studies. The acoustic yield of the Starship terminal explosion was on the order of $10^3$ tons trinitrotoluene equivalent, which agrees with the estimated fuel load of the vehicle to about a factor of 2, but is two orders of magnitude larger than optical estimates. These results support an earlier study that claimed lateral transmission of sound from a smaller rocket through the AtmoSOFAR channel. The transmission of source information through the AtmoSOFAR channel motivates its use for monitoring other natural and anthropogenic events using balloon-borne sensors. This may become increasingly important as more and more private and government entities conduct spacecraft launches and reentries. It may also provide a means of monitoring clear air turbulence and other sound-generating atmospheric phenomena at a distance.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Variability of near-fault seismic risk to reinforced concrete buildings based on high-resolution physics-based ground motion simulations

Broadband physics-based simulated earthquake ground motions are utilized to characterize the regional-scale seismic risk to modern reinforced concrete (RC) structures. A highly dense dataset of ground motions covering a 100-km urn:x-wiley:00988847:media:eqe3413:eqe3413-math-0001 40-km domain was generated using kinematic fault rupture models with varying rupture characteristics to represent shallow crustal earthquakes and resolved up to frequencies of 5 Hz. Over 40,000 nonlinear response history simulations of short- and mid-rise RC special moment frame buildings were conducted using simulation models that are capable of representing nonlinear behavior and component deterioration effects. The spatial variability of structural risk within a single earthquake scenario and between different rupture scenarios is examined, and the regions of strongest directivity effects and highest structural demands are identified. The structural demands may vary by factor of up to 8.0 at very short distances from the fault, and the large dispersion in the demands decreases significantly beyond a distance of 15 km. The interstory drift and member rotation demands are substantially impacted by important features of the geological structure and the characteristics of the rupture scenarios, particularly the presence of localized high-slip regions. The frequency characteristics of the structures are found to play an important role in determining the effects of near-fault ground motions on the structural response and expected damage. The results of this study suggest that the simulated ground motions, particularly those generated using the hybrid rupture approach, may offer reasonable structural risk estimates for low-frequency structures and conservative estimates for high-frequency structures.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Seismoacoustic analysis of underground explosions using the Rayleigh integral

SUMMARY A coupled seismoacoustic model is developed for the analysis of acoustic signals produced by underground explosive events with an aim to develop a means of improving estimated depth and yield for explosion monitoring. A ground spall model is used to predict surface motion characteristics produced by an underground explosion and the Rayleigh integral is applied to relate the surface motion to the acoustic signal some distance from surface ground zero. The low-frequency component of the ground motion associated with the prolonged free fall of lofted material during spall is found to dominate the acoustic signal propagating away from surface ground zero at shallow angles. The model is applied to observed ground motion and acoustic signals recorded during the Source Physics Experiment (SPE) with promising results. In addition to accurately predicting characteristics of the observed acoustic signals from several of the SPE events, the model provides a means of explaining the lack of signals observed during several events in the SPE due to the directionality of the higher frequency acoustic signals associated with the uplift and closure components as well as the lack of a spatially localized, longer duration dwell.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Observations and seismoacoustic simulations of earthquake-generated infrasound waves in non-epicentral regions

We analysed infrasound waves associated with the Gyeongju earthquake (ML 5.8) that occurred on 2016 September 12, in the southeastern Korean Peninsula. For infrasound wave detection, the Progressive Multichannel Correlation method was applied to the infrasound data set recorded at seven arrays operating in South Korea at epicentral distances ranging from 178 to 472 km. Based on the back-projection method constrained by array-dependent celerity and azimuth deviation models, the source regions were identified in both the epicentral and non-epicentral regions. Remarkably, the non-epicentral secondary sources of this earthquake were located in regions with shallow water depths: (i) the western coastal area in the Yellow Sea and (ii) the shallow ocean basin and bank in the East Sea. The location results obtained from the earthquake could be corroborated through its foreshock (ML 5.1), yielding location results consistent with those of the main shock. The generation of infrasound waves over shallow water depths was fortuitously validated by direct recordings of dominant single-frequency (~0.3 Hz) infrasound waves at close range via temporary sensors near the ocean basin and bank. We interpreted that low-frequency infrasound signals could be generated from interactions among the ocean floor, shallow seawater and atmosphere. We performed numerical simulations of seismoacoustic fields to predict ground motions on the seafloor and acoustic transmission efficiency between the water and air interface. The simulations quantified the energy transfer through different media and clarified our observational results. We found that because this solid Earth‒water‒atmosphere coupled air wave has a relatively low frequency (~0.3 Hz), it can survive propagation over long distances compared with high-frequency infrasound waves generated in inland and mountain regions. In this study, we extend our understanding of water‒atmosphere coupling and the monitoring framework for earthquake-associated non-epicentral infrasound waves, encompassing not only inland ground shaking but also shallow sea regions located far from the epicentre.

Earthquake monitoring and test-ban treaty verifica↗