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DOE OSTI2022

Model-based predictive control of multi-zone commercial building with a lumped building modelling approach

Here this study investigates the applicability of a lumped building modeling approach to model-based predictive control (MPC) to alleviate the complex modeling process of the grey-box multi-zone building model. Based on experimental data, two building models were estimated in this study. The detailed model as a reference case and a lumped model were estimated with decentralized and conventional approaches, respectively. Then, simulations were performed with two boundary conditions, including the comfort bound and electricity cost structure. The performances of the MPC with the detailed and lumped models were analyzed compared to the feedback control. More savings was achieved with a larger comfort bound and more aggressive electricity cost structure. The savings potential of the proposed lumped model approach was not as high as that of the detailed model. However, the proposed method yields good control performance, whose savings was approximately 8.6% over that of feedback control. These results suggest that the proposed method can be used to facilitate MPC implementation in multi-zone building applications.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Machine learning-enhanced MPC for demand flexibility in small commercial buildings: An experimental study

Small- and medium-sized commercial buildings (SMCBs) represent the majority of U.S. commercial building stock and a significant share of peak electricity demand, yet they often lack centralized building automation systems, representing a significant untapped resource for urban energy management. This infrastructure gap makes advanced control implementation challenging, limiting the potential for widespread demand flexibility. Model Predictive Control (MPC) has shown strong potential for load shifting, peak demand reduction, and cost savings, but its effectiveness is hindered by unmeasured disturbances such as internal heat gains. This paper presents a Hybrid MPC framework that integrates a physics-based gray-box building thermal model, identified using a lumped disturbance (LD) approach, with a machine learning (ML) model for forecasting unmeasured disturbances. The hybrid approach is designed for buildings with multiple individually controlled heat pump and thermostat pairs, common in SMCBs, and aims to optimize coordinated scheduling of multiple heat pumps under dynamic electricity pricing while respecting comfort constraints. The methodology is validated through both simulations of case study buildings and experimental studies at a highly-instrumented test facility. Simulation results show that the Hybrid MPC achieves substantial load shifting and peak demand reduction, approaching the performance of an ideal MPC with perfect disturbance knowledge, and outperforming a conventional MPC without disturbance forecasting. In experiments, the Hybrid MPC reduced daily HVAC energy costs by 8.7%, peak-price time load (load shifting) by 41.7%, and peak demand by 29.2% compared to baseline control, demonstrating comparable benefits to the 11.6% cost savings, 42.9% load shifting, and 23.2% peak reduction of the ideal MPC. These results demonstrate that the proposed hybrid modeling approach can significantly improve MPC performance in real-world SMCB applications without requiring additional disturbance measurements.

Demand Flexibility↗

DOE OSTI2022

Development and Validation of Algorithms That Analyze Communicating Thermostat Data to Identify Enclosure Retrofit Opportunities

Annual energy savings of up to $\$ 4$ to $\$ 5$ billion could be achieved nationwide through basic insulation and heating system retrofits of existing homes. However, current utility energy efficiency programs are costly and challenging to scale. Customer acquisition occurs primarily through energy bill mailers, mass media, and online advertising that lack specificity about home-specific retrofit opportunities, expected energy savings, and cost-effectiveness. Specific retrofit opportunities are identified via on-site home energy assessments (HEAs) that are inconvenient to homeowners, expensive, and of variable accuracy. We developed computational algorithms that automatically analyze communicating thermostat (CT) heating data that could be used to increase the customer uptake of insulation and air sealing energy conservation measures (ECMs) by identifying homes with the most significant retrofit opportunities, estimating post-retrofit energy savings, and formulating home-specific outreach. The algorithms are based on an extended second-order grey-box model that characterizes a building’s thermal response using lumped elements, coupled with an empirical model of infiltration that accounts for both wind and stack effects. The basic parameters of the model correspond to actual physical parameters of the home, i.e., the home’s overall R-value of and the building envelope ACH50. Unlike the conventional approach, which estimates model parameters based on the best fit to the observed time-dependent room temperature, our approach derives correlations between the daily heating system runtime and temperature difference (indoor-outdoor) that are more robust to data quality issues in real-world applications. We also used HEA data for algorithm development and validation. With the help of our utility partners, Eversource and National Grid, we obtained data sets for hundreds of Massachusetts homes. For each home, these data sets included three sets of information anonymized by the utility: (1) CT data (HVAC runtime, room temperature, and, for some vendors, outdoor temperature and wind speed) collected by the CT vendor (one of three) over a heating season, (2) HEA report performed by the HEA vendor (same vendor for all homes), (3) Monthly utility gas bills coincident with the CT data (3 to 24 per home, depending on availability). For some homes, we also obtained blower-door test results. Initially, we applied the algorithms developed to homes with a single CT and then extended them to homes with two CTs by using an equivalent home approach. Finally, we developed algorithms for prediction of energy savings and a methodology of comparing our predictions with those generated by HEAs. The main technical results indicate that we can reliably identify homes with insulation and/or air sealing retrofit opportunities and provide accurate savings predictions. Our hypothesis is that the algorithms could be applied to utility energy efficiency programs to identify homes that could realize significant energy savings from insulation and/or air sealing retrofits. This information could then be used to reach out to those homes with highly customized outreach, thereby delivering increased program energy savings and cost-effectiveness. This would: Significantly increase the uptake rate of on-site HEAs, and Significantly increase the fraction of HEAs resulting in ECM implementation. To test these hypotheses, we designed and conducted a randomized controlled trial (RCT). The RCT results suggest that personal messaging leads to a two- to five-fold increase in the HEA uptake rate.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2025

Thermo-hydraulic steam pipe models for district heating simulations: Simplifications to balance accuracy and simulation speed

Steam piping networks are essential for optimizing performance in industrial processes and district heating systems. However, dynamic models that balance thermo-hydraulic accuracy with computational efficiency remain limited. In response, this paper presents a new discretized steam pipe model based on the plug flow approach, capturing key thermo-hydraulic behaviors while simplifying steam phase change processes. Implemented in Modelica, the model accurately calculates temperature and pressure distributions along steam pipelines. To improve computational efficiency for district-scale simulations, five model simplifications are introduced: lumped thermo-hydraulic functions, empirical correlations, fluid state approximations, steady-state dynamics and inclusion of flow derivatives. These simplified models achieve 85%-98% accuracy in predicting pressure drop and condensation losses, including dynamic condensate behavior during pipe warm-up—a factor often overlooked in existing models. The models support diverse network configurations, scaling effectively to systems with multiple distribution pipes and connected building loads. Discrete models provide detailed insights but exhibit a cubic increase in simulation time as the network scales by N connected building O(N 2.42 ). In contrast, lumped models simulate 10–28 times faster than discrete, offering quadratic scaling of simulation time O(N 1.73 ). However, they still require 6 times more computation time than a lossless network, highlighting the inherent computational challenges of modeling compressible fluid flow. In conclusion, the steady-state lumped variant, with its near-linear scalability in computational time O(N 1.01 ), emerges as an efficient solution for preliminary design evaluations and extensive parametric studies.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

A conceptual model for how to design for building envelope characteristics. Impact of thermal comfort intervals and thermal mass on commercial buildings in U.S. climates

The paper presents a simplified conceptual model for energy demand calculations based on building envelope characteristics, thermal mass and local climate. It is based on a network model and lumped analysis of the dynamic process. Characteristic parameters for the buildings are suggested; Driving temperature (DT), Driving temperature difference, (DTD), External Load Temperature (ELT), and Thermal Load Resistance (TLR). The Building Envelope Performance ( BEP 0 ), based on a controlled constant indoor temperature is introduced. Solution techniques using stable explicit forward differences based on analytical solutions are derived. The conceptual model has been used for mapping the Driving temperature difference and introduced two performance factors and . The first factor represents the effect of thermal comfort interval and thermal mass on the energy demand. The latter represents the ratio between cooling and heating energy demand. These three parameters and factors have been visualized on U.S. maps and enable a possibility to communicate the demand of energy, and cooling and the coupling to building characteristics, in a concise way.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2023

Low-order aquifer thermal energy storage model for geothermal system simulation

This paper presents a low-order aquifer thermal energy storage (ATES) model for simulation of combined subsurface and above-surface energy systems. The model is included in the Modelica IBPSA Library, which is a free open-source library with basic models for building and district energy and control systems. The model uses a lumped-component method, in which the transient conductive-convective heat and mass transfer equation is radially discretized. To verify the accuracy of the model, we present an inter-model comparison from a simulation test suite. Results show that the Modelica ATES model is in good agreement, with a normalized mean bias error for yearly variation of aquifer temperatures of 1.6×10−2 and 9×10−5 at 1 m and 10 m distance from the well.

Maccarini, Alessandro↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Semi-Detailed Pyrolytic Gas-Phase Kinetic Model for the Volatiles of Polyethylene Thermal Degradation

This work presents a semi-detailed kinetic model to address the pyrolytic gas-phase reactivity of volatiles formed during thermal degradation of polyethylene (PE). The model builds on a validated multi-step condensed-phase model and employs validated lumping approaches. Short-chain compounds are modelled with high detail, while long-chain ones are described by surrogate species representative of diesel-cuts (NC16H32) and waxes (NC30H60). The reactivity of short chains is described through the comprehensive CRECK kinetic model, updated to align C5-C7 olefins based on recent literature experimental data. Due to the lack of experimental data for longer olefins, their reactivity is modeled by analogy to the shorter ones, ensuring an asymptotic behavior with increasing carbon numbers. The semi-detailed model is validated through experimental data on PE pyrolysis, assuming an instantaneous mixing of the inert inlet flow with released volatiles, followed by a segregated plug-flow behavior. Validation across different reactor setups confirms the model’s capability to predict detailed product distributions. Despite minor discrepancies, the proposed model effectively captures experimental trends. Further work will address modelling the reactivity in oxygen-containing environments.

kinetics↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Semi-Detailed Pyrolytic Gas-Phase Kinetic Model for the Volatiles of Polyethylene Thermal Degradation

kinetics↗

DOE OSTI2024

Neural lumped parameter differential equations with application in friction-stir processing

Lumped parameter methods aim to simplify the evolution of spatially-extended or continuous physical systems to that of a “lumped” element representative of the physical scales of the modeled system. For systems where the definition of a lumped element or its associated physics may be unknown, modeling tasks may be restricted to full-fidelity physics simulations. Here, in this work, we consider data-driven modeling tasks with limited point-wise measurements of otherwise continuous systems. We build upon the notion of the Universal Differential Equation (UDE) to construct data-driven models for reducing dynamics to that of a lumped parameter and inferring its properties. The flexibility of UDEs allow for composing various known physical priors suitable for application-specific modeling tasks, including lumped parameter methods. The motivating example for this work is the plunge and dwell stages for friction-stir welding; specifically, (i) mapping power input into the tool to a point-measurement of temperature and (ii) using this learned mapping for process control.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Model-based quantification of margins and uncertainties in metal additive manufacturing for process design and qualification

Laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) Additive Manufacturing (AM) has the potential to enable the production of components with novel designs and material properties unachievable otherwise. However, process repeatability is a challenge, making qualification ill-defined and greatly reducing the utility of what could be an important manufacturing technology. In this work, a combination of modeling, uncertainty quantification (UQ), and experimentation are used in an effort to predict and bound the range of possible outcomes of the LPBF process. Quantities of interest predicted are melt pool dimensions, microstructure features, and mechanical distortions. A combination of high fidelity thermal-fluid models, microstructure growth models, and reduced fidelity, rapid thermal and mechanical models are used. Uncertainty propagation techniques are used to predict probability distributions of quantities of interest from estimates of process uncertainties. Repeated experiments are done to quantify observed probability distributions and compared to predicted distributions to determine if predictions are precise and accurate. Novel modeling methods are microstrucutre characterization techniques are also discussed. It is found that high fidelity models do a generally good job bounding experimentally observed melt pool morphologies for both bead-on-plate and powder bed cases. Microstructure models are able to bound a number of experimentally observed microstructure statistics, but with low precision due to challenges with calibrating the microstructure growth model parameters. A developed modified inherent strain distortion model does not accurately predict observed distortions. A lumped laser distortion model shows promise in being both accurately and precisely bounding observed outcomes from the deflection comb build, but requires further evaluation on more builds and geometries.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Improved internal short circuit models for thermal runaway simulations in lithium-ion batteries

Thermal runaway (TR) modeling is one of the primary tools that can be used to overcome challenges associated with lithium-ion battery (LIB) safety. Among all LIB accidents that have occurred over the past decade, Internal Short Circuit (ISC) remains the most common trigger mechanism. Many available models in the literature either use a simplified approach to simulate ISC or completely ignore its contribution. The aim of this study is to understand the nature of the heat released for different types of ISC scenarios, including aluminum-anode, anode–cathode, and copper-cathode ISC. We study ISC behavior using a coupled electrochemical–thermal model with an integrated TR chemical kinetics solver built in the COMSOL Multiphysics framework. The time duration of heat release and the magnitude of the peak ISC current are studied as functions of parameters such as the size of the penetrating filament and the capacity of the cell. The numerical results are used to build an empirical model validated against the published experimental TR propagation data. Our model can be successfully used as a viable low-cost substitute in lower order (lumped) TR simulations to enable TR prevention and mitigation.

Singh, Bakhshish Preet (ORCID:0000000264751992)↗

DOE OSTI2021

An efficient numerical model for predicting residual stress and strain in parts manufactured by laser powder bed fusion

Abstract Computational modeling of additively manufactured structures plays an increasingly important role in product design and optimization. For laser powder bed fusion processes, the accurate modeling of stress and distortion requires large amount of computational cost due to very localized heat input and evolving complex geometries. The current study takes advantage of a graphics processing unit accelerated explicit finite element analysis code and approximated heat conduction analysis to predict the macroscopic thermo-mechanical behavior in laser selective melting. Adjacent layers and tracks were lumped to reduce the number of time steps and elements in the finite element model. The effects of track and layer grouping on prediction accuracy and solution efficiency are investigated to provide a guidance for a cost-effective simulation. Thin-wall builds from Inconel alloy 625 (IN625) powders were simulated by applying the developed modeling approach to get the detailed residual stress and distortion at a computational speed 50 times higher than conventional approach. Under repeated heating and cooling cycles, a high tensile stress was produced near surfaces of a build due to a larger shrinkage on surface than that in central area. It is also shown that horizontal stresses concentrate near the root and top layers of the IN625 build. The predicted residual elastic strain distribution was validated by the experimental measurement using x-ray synchrotron diffraction.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Interpreting T-History Data on Supercooling and Phase Change Enthalpy of a Salt-Hydrogel Complex for Building Thermal Management

Phase change materials (PCMs) are promising materials for storing and discharging latent heat in buildings to regulate the thermal environment. Measurement of salt hydrate PCM thermal performance is often challenging because of supercooling and phase segregation. Though differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) has been widely used to measure thermal properties of various phase change materials, DSC uses milligrams of sample and is unrealistic for predicting large-scale materials performance. The T-history method [1], in contrast, handles higher volumes but the analysis typically requires a lumped capacitance assumption. Here, we report and analyze T-History data on a novel salt-hydrogel complex with high viscosity, that renders low Biot number sample preparation extremely challenging. We re-examine the standard T-history method and compared against DSC data in this complex material. We report details of an experimental setup, built with necessary additions to a controlled environmental chamber. We carefully examine the validity of the lumped capacitance assumption and suggest a modified analysis using a computational approach for reliable data. Experimental parameters such as ramp rate and temperature range of the environmental chamber are considered via computational modeling to understand the effect of ramp rate on supercooling [2]. Finally, we report thermal cycling experiments on the salt-hydrogel complex. Our modified approach to measuring supercooling and enthalpy of fusion at large scales is important in better understanding the performance of phase-change materials at scale for building thermal storage. References: [1] Marin, Jose M, Belen Zalba, Luisa F Cabeza, and Harald Mehling. “Determination of Enthalpy Temperature Curves of Phase Change Materials with the Temperature-History Method: Improvement to Temperature Dependent Properties.” Measurement Science and Technology 14, no. 2 (February 1, 2003): 184–89. https://doi.org/10.1088/0957-0233/14/2/305. [2] Safari, A., R. Saidur, F.A. Sulaiman, Yan Xu, and Joe Dong. “A Review on Supercooling of Phase Change Materials in Thermal Energy Storage Systems.” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 70 (April 2017): 905–19. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2016.11.272

thermodynamics↗

DOE OSTI2021

Design and performance evaluation of a dual-circuit thermal energy storage module for air conditioners

We present experimental results and a validated numerical model of a dual-circuit phase-change thermal energy storage module for air conditioners. The module incorporates a phase-change material encapsulated in compressed expanded natural graphite foam. We used n-tetradecane as the PCM with a transition temperature (~4.5 °C) suitable for air-conditioning applications. Heat exchange to and from the module is accomplished through two fluid loops operating as a heat source and sink embedded inside multiple slabs of the composite material. This dual-circuit design enables easier integration with air-conditioning equipment and provides enhanced flexibility in system operation as compared to the state-of-the-art thermal storage systems. When integrated with an air-conditioner, this design will enable peak-load shaving and enhances operational efficiency. The thermal storage device was designed for a nominal storage capacity of ~ 3.5 kWh. We evaluated the heat transfer and energy storage performance of this device using standalone heat transfer experiments to estimate key thermal resistances and identify design improvements before integration with an air conditioner. The numerical model of the heat exchanger uses a combination of discretized and lumped parameter approaches to maintain a balance between accuracy and computational expense. Our analyses show that the geometric features and integration of fluid tubes are key contributors to the thermal contact resistance between the fluid and the thermal storage material, and consequently, to the overall performance of the thermal storage module. Our standalone experiments also identified important operating scenarios in which this thermal storage module can be used for air-conditioning in buildings.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Structural Analysis of the US ITER ECH Transmission Line System

The electron cyclotron heating (ECH) and current drive system is one of the main plasma heating systems for ITER. It uses high-power microwave beams with the power deposition location steerable across the plasma cross section. Microwave power is conveyed via transmission lines (TLs) that run from the gyrotrons in the radio frequency building through the assembly hall and tokamak building to the ECH launchers within the tokamak vacuum vessel. The ECH system includes a vast array of interconnected TL waveguides, in-line components, and support structures.Finite element (FE) modeling provides an essential means of simulating the system, applying loads and determining deflections, rotations, forces, moments, and stresses in order to evaluate various structural and microwave transmission performance metrics. A representative FE model of the overall ECH TL system is developed in ANSYS®. This top-level model defines the centerline of the waveguide system. Waveguide segments are represented by line elements (beams and pipes) with equivalent section properties, and support structures are represented by boundary conditions. A systematic approach is used to model each ECH component with lumped masses and structurally equivalent stiffness matrices or ANSYS superelements.The top-level TL FE model is used to evaluate the various loads (thermal, vacuum, seismic, etc.) and operating scenarios. The top-level model directly calculates stresses in the straight aluminum waveguide segments. The model provides the forces and moments acting on the in-line components for detailed submodel assessments. Displacement results from the top-level analysis feed into a separate microwave performance model to help determine operational efficiency. All TL performance and thermal-structural requirements are met, as specified by the applicable codes and standards, and successfully documented in numerous technical reports and demonstrated at the final design review.

Shanmugasundaram, Aravind↗

DOE OSTI2021

Impact of size and thermal gradient on supercooling of phase change materials for thermal energy storage

Phase change material based thermal energy storage has many current and potential applications in the heating and cooling of buildings, battery and electronics thermal management, thermal textiles, and dry cooling of power plants. However, connecting lab scale thermal data obtained with differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) to the performance of large-scale practical systems has been a major challenge primarily due to the dependence of supercooling on the size and temperature gradient of the system. Here we show how a phase change material’s supercooling behavior can be characterized experimentally using common lab scale thermal analysis techniques. We then develop a statistics based theoretical model that uses the lab-scale data on small samples to quantitatively predict the supercooling performance for a general thermal energy storage application of any size, including also allowing for the possibility of temperature gradients. Finally, we validate the modeling methodology by comparing to experimental results for solid-solid phase change in neopentyl glycol, which shows how the model successfully predicts the changes in supercooling temperature across a large range of cooling rates (2 orders of magnitude) and volumes (3 orders of magnitude). By accounting for thermal gradients, the model avoids ~2x error incurred by lumped approximations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗