Machine Learning for Explanation of Subgrid Convective Precipitation: A Case Study over CONUS Using a Convection-Allowing Model and SHAP Analysis
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Hyoungseok Kang↗
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Using an Explainable Machine Learning Approach to Characterize Earth System Model Errors: Application of SHAP Analysis to Modeling Lightning Flash Occurrence
Computational models of the Earth System are critical tools for modern scientific inquiry. Effortstoward evaluating and improving errors in representations of physical and chemical processes inthese large computational systems are commonly stymied by highly nonlinear and complexerror behavior. Recent work has shown that these errors can be effectively predicted usingmodern Artificial Intelligence (A.I.) techniques. In this work, we go beyond these previousstudies to apply an interpretable A.I. technique to not only predict model errors but also movetoward understanding the underlying reasons for successful error prediction. We use XGBoostclassification trees and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis to explore the errors inthe prediction of lightning occurrence in the NASA GEOS model, a widely used Earth SystemModel. This explainable error prediction system can effectively predict the model error andindicates that the errors are strongly related to convective processes and the characteristics ofthe land surface.
Artificial intelligence↗
Serious Gaming for Building a Basis of Certification via Trust and Trustworthiness of Autonomous Systems
Autonomous systems governed by a variety of adaptive and nondeterministic algorithms are being planned for inclusion into safety-critical environments, such as unmanned aircraft and space systems in both civilian and military applications. However, until autonomous systems are proven and perceived to be capable and resilient in the face of unanticipated conditions, humans will be reluctant or unable to delegate authority, remaining in control aided by machine-based information and decision support. Proving capability, or trustworthiness, is a necessary component of certification. Perceived capability is a component of trust. Trustworthiness is an attribute of a cyber-physical system that requires context-driven metrics to prove and certify. Trust is an attribute of the agents participating in the system and is gained over time and multiple interactions through trustworthy behavior and transparency. Historically, artificial intelligence and machine learning systems provide answers without explanation - without a rationale or insight into the machine “thinking”. In order to function as trusted teammates, machines must be able to explain their decisions and actions. This transparency is a product of both content and communication. NASA’s Autonomy Teaming & TRAjectories for Complex Trusted Operational Reliability (ATTRACTOR) project seeks to build a basis for certification of autonomous systems via establishing metrics for trustworthiness and trust in multi-agent team interactions, using AI (Artificial Intelligence) explainability and persistent modeling and simulation, in the context of mission planning and execution, with analyzable trajectories. Inspired by Massively Multiplayer Online Role Playing Games (MMORPG) and Serious Gaming, the proposed ATTRACTOR modeling and simulation environment is similar to online gaming environments in which player (aka agent) participants interact with each other, affect their environment, and expect the simulation to persist and change regardless of any individual agent’s active participation. This persistent simulation environment will accommodate individual agents, groups of self-organizing agents, and large-scale infrastructure behavior. The effects of the emerging adaptation and coevolution can be observed and measured to building a basis of measurable trustworthiness and trust, toward certification of safety-critical autonomous systems.
Allen, B. Danette↗
Data Accountability and Uncertainty Analysis for the Mars Science Laboratory
This paper presents machine learning-based approaches to automate and optimize the detection of volume loss for the downlink process of telemetry data from the Mars Curiosity Rover. The Curiosity observes volume loss and data corruption, requiring re-transmits from the rover and Ground Data System Analysts (GDSA) to monitor the data flow. To resolve this issue, we created a data pipeline to accumulate data from various data sources in the downlink process and detect where the data is missed. In this paper, we benchmarked different methodologies based on the accuracy and excitability of them to identify whether a downlink data that is received to the ground system is complete or incomplete. Our results show that machine learning methods can improve the performance of the GDSA by 55% while the user can diagnose why data is missed and provide an explanation for the data accountability problem.
Chowdhury, Ameera↗
Future of Big Earth Data Analytics
The state of the art of Big Earth Data Analytics can be expected to evolve rapidly in the coming years. The forces driving evolution come from both growth in the data and advancement in the field of data analytics. In the data area, advances in sensor instrumentation and platform miniaturization are increasing both data resolution and coverage, resulting in enormous growth in data Volume. Increases in temporal resolution in particular also generate demands for higher data Velocity. At the same time, the proliferation of instruments and the platforms on which they reside is increasing the Variety of datasets. The Variety increase in turn leads to questions about the Veracity of the data. In the algorithm area, powerful machine learning methods are coming to the fore, particularly Deep Neural Networks. These are powerful at detecting interesting features in the data, integrating many different measurements (i.e., data fusion), and classification problems. However, they are still challenging when seeking explanations of how natural or socio-economic phenomena work using Earth Observations. Thus, classical analysis techniques will remain relevant when the emphasis is on forming or testing explanations, as well as to support interactive data exploration.
Lynnes, Christopher↗
Off-Nominal Event Analysis in Autonomous Flights Based on Explainable Artificial Intelligence
A key objective in the Urban Air Mobility program at NASA is to intelligently perform an autonomous flight in a complex urban environment under all weather conditions with guaranteed levels of safety. To accomplish this, the mission manager (central decision-making module) of the vehicle needs to make informed decisions between various Courses of Action (CoA) based on its' interpretation of the inputs it receives. If an off-nominal event is detected either based on the amalgamation of sensor data or the use of machine learning models, the mission manager may greatly benefit from identification of the input features that most likely contributed to that specific event. Such an understanding is usually not possible to obtain from the classical machine learning models (deep learning) due to the inherent black box like structure. However, this understanding is achieved using eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) models that provide a human interpretable rationale for the predictions made. This work presents a game theory inspired XAI model for the off-nominal assessment of autonomous flights. The proposed approach based on Shapley values is model agnostic, provides local as well as global explanation and satisfies the four axioms (efficiency, symmetry, dummy, additivity) to achieve fair contribution. The versatility of the approach is first demonstrated on a simulated dataset in which the significance of each input to flight phase prediction is clearly identified. Subsequently, data from simulated flight trajectories are fed into the model which reveal the input features that most likely contributed to a rotor failure event thereby empowering the mission manager to take the appropriate CoA.
autonomy↗
Off-Nominal Event Analysis in Autonomous Flights Based on Explainable Artificial Intelligence
A key objective in the Urban Air Mobility program at NASA is to intelligently perform an autonomous flight in a complex urban environment under all weather conditions with guaranteed levels of safety. To accomplish this, the mission manager (central decision-making module) of the vehicle needs to make informed decisions between various Courses of Action (CoA) based on its' interpretation of the inputs it receives. If an off-nominal event is detected either based on the amalgamation of sensor data or the use of machine learning models, the mission manager may greatly benefit from identification of the input features that most likely contributed to that specific event. Such an understanding is usually not possible to obtain from the classical machine learning models (deep learning) due to the inherent black box like structure. However, this understanding is achieved using eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) models that provide a human interpretable rationale for the predictions made. This work presents a game theory inspired XAI model for the off-nominal assessment of autonomous flights. The proposed approach based on Shapley values is model agnostic, provides local as well as global explanation and satisfies the four axioms (efficiency, symmetry, dummy, additivity) to achieve fair contribution. The versatility of the approach is first demonstrated on a simulated dataset in which the significance of each input to flight phase prediction is clearly identified. Subsequently, data from simulated flight trajectories are fed into the model which reveal the input features that most likely contributed to a rotor failure event thereby empowering the mission manager to take the appropriate CoA.
autonomy↗
Applications of Intelligent Tutoring Systems to Human-Robotic Exploration of Mars
Space missions with small crews extending over several years with time-delay preventing normal conversations with people on earth will raise many challenges for training. Of special interest are possible three-year missions to Mars, requiring refresher instruction and learning new skills based on unexpected problems with machines and environmental conditions. For example, the crew will be required to monitor and repair more complex life support systems for air and water recycling than we even know how to build today. Highly educated astronauts, often with several doctorate degrees, require a very different mode of interaction than we have developed for school children or even typical college students. Explanation methods may need to differ-using analogies and techniques from different domains-depending on whether the astronaut is an astrophysicist, a pilot, or a geologist.Virtual reality (e.g., for Hubble repair missions) and "integrated" simulations (involving role-playing and emphasizing failure scenarios) are the most common advanced forms of instruction used in space flight today. The emphasis is on collaborative, embodied interaction with the same workstations and tools used in practice (e.g., a cockpit simulator). Otherwise, computerized instructional technology used by NASA is not model-based or tutorial in nature. This discussion will review some of the key instructional methods used at NASA over the past two decades and consider why ITS methods have not been exploited. Some of the problems and opportunities for training for Mars missions are examined, including how using robots in exploration activities will help but raise new training problems. These ideas will be illustrated with examples from the BrahmsVE system in which a browser- based virtual reality display with avatars allows interacting with a distributed multiagent system, in which agents can be people, robots, or software programs. Using BrahmsVE may provide a way for astronauts to interact with proxies of people who serve as instructional coaches on Mars.
Clancey, William J.↗
Analytical learning and term-rewriting systems
Analytical learning is a set of machine learning techniques for revising the representation of a theory based on a small set of examples of that theory. When the representation of the theory is correct and complete but perhaps inefficient, an important objective of such analysis is to improve the computational efficiency of the representation. Several algorithms with this purpose have been suggested, most of which are closely tied to a first order logical language and are variants of goal regression, such as the familiar explanation based generalization (EBG) procedure. But because predicate calculus is a poor representation for some domains, these learning algorithms are extended to apply to other computational models. It is shown that the goal regression technique applies to a large family of programming languages, all based on a kind of term rewriting system. Included in this family are three language families of importance to artificial intelligence: logic programming, such as Prolog; lambda calculus, such as LISP; and combinatorial based languages, such as FP. A new analytical learning algorithm, AL-2, is exhibited that learns from success but is otherwise quite different from EBG. These results suggest that term rewriting systems are a good framework for analytical learning research in general, and that further research should be directed toward developing new techniques.
Laird, Philip↗
Instructable autonomous agents
In contrast to current intelligent systems, which must be laboriously programmed for each task they are meant to perform, instructable agents can be taught new tasks and associated knowledge. This thesis presents a general theory of learning from tutorial instruction and its use to produce an instructable agent. Tutorial instruction is a particularly powerful form of instruction, because it allows the instructor to communicate whatever kind of knowledge a student needs at whatever point it is needed. To exploit this broad flexibility, however, a tutorable agent must support a full range of interaction with its instructor to learn a full range of knowledge. Thus, unlike most machine learning tasks, which target deep learning of a single kind of knowledge from a single kind of input, tutorability requires a breadth of learning from a broad range of instructional interactions. The theory of learning from tutorial instruction presented here has two parts. First, a computational model of an intelligent agent, the problem space computational model, indicates the types of knowledge that determine an agent's performance, and thus, that should be acquirable via instruction. Second, a learning technique, called situated explanation specifies how the agent learns general knowledge from instruction. The theory is embodied by an implemented agent, Instructo-Soar, built within the Soar architecture. Instructo-Soar is able to learn hierarchies of completely new tasks, to extend task knowledge to apply in new situations, and in fact to acquire every type of knowledge it uses during task performance - control knowledge, knowledge of operators' effects, state inferences, etc. - from interactive natural language instructions. This variety of learning occurs by applying the situated explanation technique to a variety of instructional interactions involving a variety of types of instructions (commands, statements, conditionals, etc.). By taking seriously the requirements of flexible tutorial instruction, Instructo-Soar demonstrates a breadth of interaction and learning capabilities that goes beyond previous instructable systems, such as learning apprentice systems. Instructo-Soar's techniques could form the basis for future 'instructable technologies' that come equipped with basic capabilities, and can be taught by novice users to perform any number of desired tasks.
Huffman, Scott Bradley↗