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DOE OSTI2025

Factors Controlling Precipitation Onset and Maintenance: Inferences From Large Eddy Simulations of Two Afternoon Deep Convective Regimes Over Amazon

To investigate the environmental factors controlling the onset and maintenance of afternoon precipitation over tropical rainforests, two contrasting cases are created for large eddy simulations (LES) using GoAmazon observations: one features a single-pulse rain dissipating quickly in earlier afternoon, while the other shows double pulses lasting until evening. For these two specific cases under consideration, LES confirms that early-morning relative humidity dominates afternoon rain patterns. The attributed impacts are distinct: moisture determines the rain onset timing while temperature affects the peak rain intensity. Single-pulse day observes one round of strong precipitation and cold pools, which further suppresses convection. On double-pulse day, the first precipitation peak results from an intermediate development of congestus clouds, whose detrainment leads to a gradual moistening of the lower-to-middle troposphere. This behavior of convection favors a second pulse of stronger precipitation with more convective organization, whose development decouples from surface fluxes and sustains until evening.

Amazon↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Physics-Constrained Deep Learning Model for Simulating Multiphase Flow in 3D Heterogeneous Porous Media

Physics-based simulators for multiphase flow in porous media emulate nonlinear processes with coupled physics, and usually require extensive computational resources for software development, maintenance and simulation execution. As a result, a huge demand exists for fast modeling of coupled processes in a wide range of subsurface applications including geological sequestration, hydrocarbon recovery and geothermal energy extraction. In this work, an efficient physics-constrained deep learning model is developed for solving multiphase flow in 3-Dimensional (3D) heterogeneous porous media. The model fully leverages the spatial topology predictive capability of convolutional neural networks, specifically U-Net with successive contracting and expansive steps, and is coupled with an efficient continuity-based smoother to predict flow responses that need spatial continuity. Furthermore, the transient regions are penalized to steer the training process such that the model can accurately capture flow in these regions. The model takes inputs including properties of porous media, fluid properties and well controls, and predicts the temporal-spatial evolution of the state variables (pressure and saturation). While maintaining the continuity of fluid flow, the 3D spatial domain is decomposed into 2D images for reducing training cost, and the decomposition results in an increased number of training data samples and better training efficiency. Additionally, a surrogate model is separately constructed as a postprocessor to calculate well flow rate based on the predictions of state variables from the deep learning model. We use the example of CO 2 injection into saline aquifers, and apply the physics-constrained deep learning model that is trained from physics-based simulation data and emulates the physics process. The model performs prediction with a speedup of ~ 1400 times compared to physics-based simulations, and the average temporal errors of predicted pressure and saturation plumes are 0.27% and 0.099% respectively. Furthermore, water production rate is efficiently predicted by a surrogate model for well flow rate, with a mean error less than 5%. Therefore, with its unique scheme to cope with the fidelity in fluid flow in porous media, the physics-constrained deep learning model can become an efficient predictive model for computationally demanding inverse problems or other coupled processes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Concurrent Optimization of Capital Cost and Expected O&M

Concentrating solar power (CSP) technologies can utilize heat from concentrated sunlight from a field of tracking mirrors to generate electricity, reform fuel, provide process heat, or augment fossil plant heat sources. Electricity-generating power tower systems focus light from thousands of independent heliostats onto a thermal receiver, which uses the focused light to warm a heat transfer fluid (HTF), typically, a molten nitrate salt. The HTF is then sent to a power generation cycle or diverted into thermal energy storage (TES) for later use. Thermal storage is – in principle – a straightforward proposition. However, optimal utilization of a TES resource is complex and multi-faceted: thermal energy may be dispatched to produce electricity immediately upon first availability, or thermal energy may be reserved for next-day peak periods at risk of filling storage and dumping energy, or a portion of the thermal energy can be reserved to maintain equipment temperatures, reducing power cycle startup time, etc. Many possible dispatch permutations variously emphasize producing peak power, operating through transients, expediting daily startup, etc. The best operation strategy can change day-to-day throughout the year, depending on the weather and market pricing forecasts. The project we describe in this report develops a software package that allows users to explore design optimization, operations decisions, and performance characterization of concentrating solar power tower plants. Users interface with the tool through a scripting language, and results are reported in time series tables, plots, runtime logs, and design outputs. Users choose from a list of variables such as tower height, solar multiple, design-point irradiance, thermal storage size, etc., and specify information about the system using a list of parameters. The software can then optimize the specified variables to reduce the cost of energy produced by the system while meeting certain production requirements, accounting for uncertain weather and electricity price forecasts, and correcting for equipment failures or repair time. The software we develop is the first comprehensive design tool of its kind to incorporate all of these aspects while being deployed as open source.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

WOMBAT (Windfarm Operations and Maintenance cost-Benefit Analysis Tool) WISDEM® [SWR-21-68]

The windfarm operations and maintenance cost-benefit analysis tool (WOMBAT) is software to simulate the operations and maintenance phase of either onshore or offshore windfarms. WOMBAT is a medium-fidelity tool that is designed to model turbine, cable, and substation failures at the subassembly level, but is flexible enough that individual component or asset-level modeling can also be performed. WOMBAT enables users to model technological improvements, the use of a wide range of service equipment from drone repairs and remote resets to heavy lift vessels and crawler cranes, to analyze cost trends with varying trade-offs in conjunction with energy production, availability and a growing range of metrics. This library provides a tool to simulate the operation and maintenance phase (O&M) of distributed, land-based, and offshore windfarms using a discrete event simulation framework. WOMBAT is written around the SimPy discrete event simulation framework. Additionally, this is supported using a flexible and modular object-oriented code base, which enables the modeling of arbitrarily large (or small) windfarms with as many or as few failure and maintenance tasks that can be encoded. Please note that this is still heavily under development, so you may find some functionality to be incomplete at the current moment, but rest assured the functionality is expanding. With that said, it would be greatly appreciated for issues or PRs to be submitted for any improvements at all, from fixing typos (guaranteed to be a few) to features to testing. Also available at: https://pypi.org/project/wombat/

Cooperman, Aubryn↗

DOE OSTI2022

Regulatory Considerations for Nuclear Energy Applications of Digital Twin Technologies

Digital twins (DTs) in complex industrial and engineering applications have potential benefits that include increased operational efficiencies, enhanced safety and reliability, improved security engineering, reduced errors, faster information sharing, and better predictions. The interest in DT technologies continues to grow, and many of these advanced technologies are expected to experience rapid and wide industry adoption in the near future. Some of the potential application areas for DTs in the nuclear industry are design, licensing, plant construction, training simulators, predictive operations and maintenance, autonomous operation and control, failure and degradation prediction, physical protection modeling and simulation, and safety and reliability analyses. The Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research at the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has initiated a future-focused research project to assess the regulatory viability of DTs for nuclear power plants and other NRC-regulated activities, such as fuel cycle facilities and operations. This report explores the potential impact of DT technologies in nuclear applications on NRC-regulated activities of interest. This report describes a nuclear DT system and its capabilities for nuclear power plant applications, followed by identification and discussion of some regulated activities that merit special consideration and present opportunities in implementing DT-enabling technologies and capabilities.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Quantifying Uncertainty of Deep Reinforcement Learning Based Decision Making for Operations and Maintenance of Nuclear Power Plant

This paper summarizes research that integrates condition monitoring and prognostics with decision making for nuclear power plant operations and maintenance. As part of this research, we have developed an online asset management tool to help reduce life-cycle maintenance and repair costs. Using the latest advancements in condition monitoring, supply chain analytics, and deep reinforcement learning, we have created a predictive maintenance tool that can optimize the maintenance and spare-part management of a repairable nuclear system. To demonstrate these methods, preliminary studies were conducted on a simple, representative maintenance system undergoing a stochastic degradation process that requires repairs or replacement to continue operation. Through Monte Carlo simulations, we were able to reduce maintenance spending by approximately 50% compared to optimized, time-based maintenance strategies. Not only does the decision maker reduce the average life-cycle costs, it also minimizes the chance of high cost scenarios, lowering the variance of the expected cost distributions, and reducing overall financial risk. Furthermore, this work also studies the ability of the decision maker to handle various levels of noise from observation uncertainty. By introducing uncertainty into the decision-making process, we have quantified the robustness and resiliency of the decision maker, as well as identified necessary levels of observability to demonstrate cost effectiveness.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Combining Simulation and Optimization to Derive Operating Policies for a Concentrating Solar Power Plant

Optimizing short-term decisions over a rolling horizon and/or using deterministic penalties to capture system stochasticity can lead to myopic policies that fail to consider unplanned events and their long-term adverse effects. We present a methodology that integrates an off-line optimization model with a simulation procedure to determine the profitability of different operating strategies; specifically, the latter is used to generate additional constraints for the former when failures occur according to system component operating lifetimes that (i) are subject to exogenous uncertainty, and (ii) may degrade more quickly under specific operating conditions. We use the feedback provided by the simulation model in a parametric analysis to obtain penalties that can be used in short-term operations scheduling to maximize the long-term revenues obtained by the optimization model. We apply this research to a concentrating solar power plant; our results show that the methodology can be used to choose an operating policy that balances maximizing profit while accounting for maintenance costs. Integrating the optimization model with a simulation procedure reveals that aggressive prices for cycling yield about 55% fewer startups and 30% fewer failures compared to using a more typical start-up operating strategy, and can save hundreds of thousands to millions of dollars in repair costs over the lifetime of the plant.

concentrating solar power↗

DOE OSTI2021

The Effect of an Equatorial Continent on the Tropical Rain Belt. Part 1: Annual Mean Changes in the ITCZ

The TRACMIP (Tropical Rain Belts with an Annual Cycle and Continent Model Intercomparison Project) ensemble includes slab-ocean aquaplanet controls and experiments with a highly idealized tropical continent, characterized by modified aquaplanet grid cells with increased evaporative resistance, increased albedo, reduced heat capacity, and no ocean heat transport (zero Q-flux). In the annual mean, an equatorial cold tongue develops west of the continent and induces dry anomalies and a split in the oceanic intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). Ocean cooling is initiated by advection of cold, dry air from the winter portion of the continent; warm, humid anomalies in the summer portion are restricted to the continent by anomalous surface convergence. The surface energy budget suggests that ocean cooling persists and intensifies because of a positive feedback between a colder surface, drier and colder air, reduced downwelling longwave (LW) flux, and enhanced net surface LW cooling (LW feedback). A feedback between wind, evaporation, and SST (so-called WES feedback) also contributes to the establishment and maintenance of the cold tongue. Simulations with a gray-radiation model and simulations that diverge from protocol (with negligible winter cooling) confirm the importance of moist-radiative feedbacks and of rectification effects on the seasonal cycle. This mechanism coupling the continental and oceanic climate might be relevant to the double ITCZ bias. The key role of the LW feedback suggests that the study of interactions between monsoons and oceanic ITCZs requires full-physics models and a hierarchy of land models that considers evaporative processes alongside heat capacity as a defining characteristic of land.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

High-Latitude, Low-Altitude SAI: Overview of G6-1.5K-HiLLA Simulations in E3SMv3

This report details a contribution of Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 3 (E3SMv3) simulations to a proposed model intercomparison project funded and organized by Reflective, a nonprofit group studying the possible global impacts of SAI. Using annual feedback control and seasonally-variable injection sites to achieve a desired global near-surface temperature target, the simulated SAI campaign indicates robust maintenance of the 2020-2039 climatic state over 60 years into the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Techno-Economic Modelling of Tidal Energy Converter Arrays in the Tacoma Narrows

Hydrokinetic tidal energy converter (TEC) technology is yet to become cost competitive with other renewable energy sources. Understanding the interaction between energy production and the costs incurred harvesting that energy may unlock the economic potential of this technology. Although hydrodynamic simulation of TEC arrays has matured over time, including demonstration of how small and large arrays affect the resource, integration of cost modelling is often limited. The advanced ocean energy array techno-economic modelling tool ‘DTOcean’ enables designers to calculate and improve the levelised cost of energy (LCOE) of an array through parametric simulation of the energy extraction, design of the electrical network, moorings and foundations, and simulation of the installation and lifetime operations and maintenance of the array. This work presents a verification of DTOcean’s ability to simulate the techno-economic performance of TEC arrays by reproducing the hypothetical RM1 reference model, a semi-analytical model of a TEC array based in the Tacoma Narrows of Washington state, U.S.A. It is demonstrated that DTOcean can produce a reasonable estimate to the LCOE predicted by the reference model, giving (in Euro cents per kiloWatt hour) 36.69 ¢/kWh against the reference model’s 34.612 ¢/kWh for 10 TECs, while for 50 TECs, DTOcean calculated 20.34 ¢/kWh compared to 17.34 ¢/kWh for the reference model.

Topper, Mathew B. R. (ORCID:0000000347324347)↗

DOE OSTI2025

Vertical canopy gradients of respiration drive plant carbon budgets and leaf area index

Despite its importance for determining global carbon fluxes, leaf respiration remains poorly constrained in land surface models (LSMs). We tested the sensitivity of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model Land Model – Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (ELM-FATES) to variation in the canopy gradients of leaf maintenance respiration (R dark ). We ran global and point simulations varying the canopy gradient of R dark to explore the impacts on forest structure, composition, and carbon cycling. In global simulations, steeper canopy gradients of R dark lead to increased understory survival and leaf biomass. Leaf area index (LAI) increased up to 77% in tropical regions compared with the default parameterization, improving alignment with remotely sensed benchmarks. Global vegetation carbon varied from 308 Pg C to 449 Pg C across the ensemble. In tropical forest simulations, steeper gradients of R dark had a large impact on successional dynamics. Results show the importance of canopy gradients in leaf traits and fluxes for determining plant carbon budgets and emergent ecosystem properties such as competitive dynamics, LAI, and vegetation carbon. The high-model sensitivity to canopy gradients in R dark highlights the need for more observations of how leaf traits and fluxes vary along light micro-environments to inform critical dynamics in LSMs.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

PDQ Users Manual. Manual Version 2, for PDQ Code Version 1.20

PDQ is a tool for the management of the input and execution of batch jobs for simulation codes that use a text based input system. It accomplishes this goal by operating at two levels. First, it takes input file templates (commonly known at LANL as input deck templates) and creates multiple instantiations by performing substitutions of data from table files into symbols (variables) found in the template. Second, it provides commands to submit the created files to the SLURM batch system for execution. These two activities taken together produce a whole that is greater than the sum of its parts and provides an elegant way of executing studies across multiple similar simulations while minimizing the risk of typographical errors in the input files. PDQ was originally developed as a job management system called XVS by Jeff McAninch while he was at LANL. Besides the capabilities described here, XVS had many other features specific for interactions with particular simulation codes. After Jeff’s departure, maintenance of XVS was taken over by Rendell Carver; he added some new features as well as kept it functioning as the batch system at LANL was changed from LSF to MOAB to SLURM. In 2017, Rob Pelak decided to develop a different version that removed the additional features (many of which were rendered obsolete with the retirement of the simulation code or batch system that they supported) and produced a cleaner “bare bones” version of XVS. A few other behaviors of XVS that Rob found irksome were altered. Rob gave the resulting code a new name: PDQ. In 2022 Danielle McDermott developed a version that runs under Python 3.X. As suggested by Rob, she used the python2to3 utility to identify most changes. Given that PDQ continues to operate with Python version 2.7 we have advanced the version number to 1.20.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Modeling methane dynamics in three wetlands in Northeastern China by using the CLM-Microbe model

Wetlands account for up to 70% of the natural source of methane (CH 4 ) in terrestrial ecosystems on a global scale. Soil microbes are the ultimate producers and biological consumers of CH 4 in wetlands. Therefore, simulating microbial mechanisms of CH 4 production and consumptionwould improve the predictability of CH 4 flux in wetland ecosystems. In this study, we applied a microbial-explicit model, the CLM-Microbe, to simulate CH 4 flux in three major natural wetlands in northeastern China. The CLM-Microbe model was able to capture the seasonal variation of gross primary productivity (GPP), dissolved organic carbon (DOC), and CH 4 flux. The CLM-Microbe model explained more than 40% of the variation in GPP and CH 4 flux across sites. Marsh wetlands had higher CH 4 flux than mountain peatlands. Ebullition dominated the CH 4 transport pathway in all three wetlands. The methanogenesis dominates while methanotroph makes a minor contribution to the CH 4 flux, making all wetlands a CH 4 source. Sensitivity analysis indicated that microbial growth and death rates are the key factors governing CH 4 emission and vegetation physiological properties (flnr) and maintenance respiration predominate GPP variation. Explicitly simulating microbial processes allows genomic information to be incorporated, laying a foundation for better predicting CH 4 dynamics under the changing environment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Liquid Core Detection and Strand Condition Monitoring in a Continuous Caster Using Optical Fiber

Real-time monitoring of the liquid core position during the continuous casting of steel has been demonstrated using low-cost distributed optical-fiber-based strain sensors. These sensors were installed on the containment roll support structures in the segments of a production continuous caster to detect the position of the solid–liquid interface and monitor the strand condition during the continuous casting. Distributed Fiber Bragg Grating sensors (FBGs) were used in this work to monitor strain at six roll positions in the caster. The sensor performance was first validated by comparing optical strain measurements with conventional strain gauge measurements in the lab. Next, optical strain measurements were performed on an isolated caster segment in a segment maintenance facility using hydraulic jacks to simulate the presence of a liquid core under the roll. Finally, the sensors were evaluated during caster operation. The sensors successfully detected the load increase associated with the presence of a liquid core under each instrumented roll location. Incidents of bulging and roll eccentricity were also detected using frequency analysis of the optical strain signal. The liquid core position measurements were compared using predictions from computer models (digital twins) in use at the production site. The measurements were in good agreement with the model predictions, with a few exceptions. Under certain transient caster operating conditions, such as spraying practice changes and SEN exchanges, the model predictions deviated slightly from the liquid core position determined from strain measurements.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Windfarm Operations and Maintenance cost-Benefit Analysis Tool (WOMBAT)

This report provides technical documentation and background on the newly-developed Wind Operations and Maintenance cost-Benefit Analysis Tool (WOMBAT) software. WOMBAT is an open-source model that can be used to obtain cost estimates for operations and maintenance of land-based or offshore wind power plants. The software was designed to be flexible and modular to allow for implementation of new strategies and technological innovations for wind plant maintenance. WOMBAT uses a process-based simulation approach to model day-to-day operations, repairs, and weather conditions. High-level outputs from WOMBAT, including time-based availability and annual operating costs, are found to agree with published results from other models.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

HOMP (Hybrid Operation and Maintenance Platform) [SWR-22-81]

The HOMP software module is contained within NREL's Hybrid Optimization and Performance Platform (HOPP) at this URL: https://github.com/NREL/HOPP/tree/feature/HOMP. HOMP is a python-based software module which can be used concurrently with the Hybrid Optimization and Performance Platform (HOPP) to model, simulate, and optimize degradation, reliability, and operations and maintenance of hybrid power plant components. The program currently models lithium ion battery, PEM electrolyzer, wind turbine, and solar PV array components, which enables users to understand the design and operation tradeoffs of hybrid power plants. For instance, HOMP enables users to answer questions like: how large does a battery bank need to be to achieve optimal charge/discharge rates for performance and reliability? How does plant design change for different objectives (e.g., profit versus resilience)? Under what conditions is it better to produce electricity versus hydrogen? How do we optimally control hybrid power plants to reduce downtime and increase performance?

Clark, Caitlyn↗

DOE OSTI2025

Files and scripts to support manuscript Needham et al. Canopy Gradients of Respiration

This dataset includes the parameter files, relevant output files, and scripts to perform analysis with Jupyter notebooks that support the manuscript Needham et al 2025 “Canopy Gradients of Respiration Drive Plant Carbon Budgets and Leaf Area Index.” We add functionality to the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) to allow flexible vertical gradients of leaf maintenance respiration (Rdark) and maximum carboxylation rate (Vcmax) through the canopy. We test the sensitivity of FATES to canopy gradients in Rdark, both in global simulations to assess broad scale impacts on leaf area index (LAI) and vegetation carbon, and in single site simulations where we assess impacts on plant functional type (PFT) competitive dynamics. Parameter files are netcdf files that can be converted to human readable .cdl files using NCO tools. Analysis scripts are Jupyter notebook files. These can be opened and run using the open source Jupyter notebook software. Model outputs are netcdf files.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Cost‐benefit assessment framework for robotics‐driven inspection of floating offshore wind farms

Abstract Operations and maintenance (O&M) of floating offshore wind farms (FOWFs) poses various challenges in terms of greater distances from the shore, harsher weather conditions, and restricted mobility options. Robotic systems have the potential to automate some parts of the O&M leading to continuous feature‐rich data acquisition, operational efficiency, along with health and safety improvements. There remains a gap in assessing the techno‐economic feasibility of robotics in the FOWF sector. This paper investigates the costs and benefits of incorporating robotics into the O&M of a FOWF. A bottom‐up cost model is used to estimate the costs for a proposed multi‐robot platform (MRP). The MRP houses unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and remotely operated vehicle (ROV) to conduct the inspection of specific FOWF components. Emphasis is laid on the most conducive O&M activities for robotization and the associated technical and cost aspects. The simulation is conducted in Windfarm Operations and Maintenance cost‐Benefit Analysis Tool (WOMBAT), where the metrics of incurred operational expenditure (OPEX) and the inspection time are calculated and compared with those of a baseline case consisting of crew transfer vessels, rope‐access technicians, and divers. Results show that the MRP can reduce the inspection time incurred, but this reduction has dependency on the efficacy of the robotic system and the associated parameterization e.g., cost elements and the inspection rates. Conversely, the increased MRP day rate results in a higher annualized OPEX. Residual risk is calculated to assess the net benefit of incorporating the MRP. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis is conducted to find the key parameters influencing the OPEX and the inspection time variation. A key output of this work is a robust and realistic framework which can be used for the cost‐benefit assessment of future MRP systems for specific FOWF activities.

17 WIND ENERGY↗