Adapting quantile mapping to bias correct solar radiation data
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Bailey, Maggie D. (ORCID:0000000347017849)↗
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Improvement of Aerosol Optical Depth Data for Localized Solar Forecasting
This presentation provides an overview of the improvement of aerosol optical depth data for localized solar forecasting.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Mapping potentials and bridging regional gaps of renewable resources in China
Reasonable and effective use of renewable resources can reduce dependence on traditional fossil-based energy sources and reduce carbon emissions. This study mapped the spatial potentials of renewable resources (i.e., solar radiation, precipitation, wind, and geothermal resources) in China. The results showed that China's most abundant renewable resources are located in the southwestern regions, which are significantly different from the spatial distribution patterns of population and economic development. Four southwestern provinces (Tibet, Qinghai, Sichuan, and Yunnan) make up only 7% of the national gross domestic product (GDP) and 30% of the national land area but possess 58% of the renewable resources. Furthermore, we found a weak to moderate degree of negative correlation between the emergy density of renewable resources and GDP per capita on the administrative levels of the prefecture-level cities for the whole country and in its eastern, central, and western regions. This means that the socioeconomically underdeveloped Midwest has more abundant renewable resources. A distributed energy-economic system may help to bridge the regional gaps of renewable sources in China. These findings can support policy decisions for the better development and use of renewable resources in China.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
SoDa: An Irradiance-Based Synthetic Solar Data Generation Tool (SoDa) v0.1
SoDa is an irradiance-based synthetic Solar Data generation tool to generate realistic sub-minute solar photovoltaic (PV) power time series, that emulate the weather pattern for a certain geographical location. Our tool relies on the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) to obtain irradiance and weather data patterns for the site. Irradiance is mapped onto a PV model estimate of a solar plant's 30-min power output, based on the configuration of the panel. We use a stochastic model with a switching behavior due to different weather regimes as provided by the cloud type label in the NSRDB, with parameters for the cloudy states trained on the high-resolution solar power measurements from a Phasor Measurement Unit (PMU).
Carreno, IgnacioLosada↗
Mapping and imaging ionizing radiation in two and three dimensions
A two-dimensional imaging system and a two-dimensional or three-dimensional optical tomographic mapping system, each employing gas scintillation induced by ionizing radiation, i.e., radioluminescence, and corresponding methods, are disclosed. The systems may employ one or more cameras and corresponding UV filters (potentially solar blind filters) for imaging a radioluminescent scene. For two-dimensional or three-dimensional mapping, the resultant UV images are spatially registered with one another and then reconstructed to form a three-dimensional tomographic map of the ionizing radiation. The two-dimensional map is a plane of the three-dimensional map. The UV images may be spatially registered by using a reference source, optionally, a calibrated reference source allowing dosimetry calculations for the ionizing radiation. Molecular nitrogen is the primary candidate for the radioluminescent gas, though a controlled ambient in a chamber of nitric oxide, argon, krypton, or xenon may be employed. The reconstruction process employs an algebraic reconstruction technique or an Abel inversion.
Bentz, Brian Z.↗
Pairing Directional Solar Inputs From Ray Tracing to Solar Receiver/Reactor Heat Transfer Models on Unstructured Meshes: Development and Case Studies
A novel method for pairing surface irradiation and volumetric absorption from Monte Carlo ray tracing to computational heat transfer models is presented. The method is well-suited to directionally and spatially complex concentrated radiative inputs (e.g., solar receivers and reactors). The method employs a generalized algorithm for directly mapping absorbed rays from a Monte Carlo ray tracing model to boundary or volumetric source terms in the computational mesh. The algorithm is compatible with unstructured, two and three-dimensional meshes with varying element shapes. Four case studies were performed on a directly irradiated, windowed solar thermochemical reactor model to validate the method. The method was shown to conserve energy and preserve spatial variation when mapping rays from a Monte Carlo ray tracing model to a computational heat transfer model in ansys fluent.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Regridding uncertainty for statistical downscaling of solar radiation
Abstract. Initial steps in statistical downscaling involve being able to compare observed data from regional climate models (RCMs). This prediction requires (1) regridding RCM outputs from their native grids and at differing spatial resolutions to a common grid in order to be comparable to observed data and (2) bias correcting RCM data, for example via quantile mapping, for future modeling and analysis. The uncertainty associated with (1) is not always considered for downstream operations in (2). This work examines this uncertainty, which is not often made available to the user of a regridded data product. This analysis is applied to RCM solar radiation data from the NA-CORDEX (North American Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment) data archive and observed data from the National Solar Radiation Database housed at the National Renewable Energy Lab. A case study of the mentioned methods over California is presented.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Precision snow removal analysis
A method for precision snow removal analysis provides a melt rate in inches per day for roadways in a geometric region is provided. Elevation data is used to calculate upward looking hemispherical viewsheds at each roadway coordinate to determine the total solar radiation. The snowmelt capacity and slope are determined at each coordinate and the data is displayed on a geographical map of the roadway. The processing speed of the computer is improved since the snowmelt capacity is only determined for a roadway subset of the region coordinates.
42 ENGINEERING↗
Hydrologic Model Files (PRMS) for Historical Conditions in the East River Watershed, Colorado between 1987-2019
The data package contains model input and output file for the East River watershed (85 km2) located in the headwaters of the Colorado River. The model is the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Precipitation-Modeling Runoff System (PRMS) for the historical, or baseline, condition (1987-2019) to assess the efficiency of summer monsoon rains to generate streamflow. The finite difference grid resolution is 100 m with elevations resampled from the USGS National Elevation Dataset. LANDFIRE raster data is used to derive parameters of dominant cover type, summer and winter cover density, canopy interception characteristics for snow and rain and transmission coefficient for shortwave radiation. Climate forcing uses minimum and maximum daily temperature lapse rates defined by the two Snow Telemetry (SNOTEL) stations located in the vicinity of the East River adjusted for aspect. Schofield SNOTEL snowfall is spatially distributed using LiDAR derived snow depth observations from the Airborne Snow Observatory (ASO) flown 4 April 2016. Snow depths are converted to snow water equivalent based on ground surveys and density modeling. Rainfall is spatially distributed using the monthly Parameter-elevation Relationships on Independent Slopes Model 30-year monthly averages. Simulated solar radiation is calibrated to match weather station observations. Model verification of snow water equivalent (SWE) accumulation and ablation relies on the 2018 and 2019 ASO maps and weather station snow depth. The data package contains model input files in text format, model documentation in pfd and a readme.txt file to help users understand the file structure to run the program.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Clear-Sky Probability for the 2023 Annular Solar Eclipse and the 2024 Total Solar Eclipse Using the NREL National Solar Radiation Database
The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and collaborators have created a clear-sky probability analysis to help guide viewers to the 2023 annular solar eclipse and the 2024 total solar eclipse. Using cloud and solar data from the NREL National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB), the analysis provides cloudless-sky probabilities specific to the date, time, and location of each eclipse with a 4-km resolution. Though not intended to be an eclipse weather forecast, the detailed maps can help guide eclipse enthusiasts to likely optimal viewing locations. Additionally, high-resolution data are presented for the centerline of the path of each eclipse, representing the likelihood for cloudless skies and atmospheric clarity. The NSRDB provides industry, academia, and other stakeholders with high-resolution solar irradiance data to support feasibility analyses for photovoltaic and concentrating solar power generation projects.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
r -process nucleosynthesis and kilonovae from hypermassive neutron star post-merger remnants
ABSTRACT We investigate r-process nucleosynthesis and kilonova emission resulting from binary neutron star (BNS) mergers based on a three-dimensional (3D) general-relativistic magnetohydrodynamic (GRMHD) simulation of a hypermassive neutron star (HMNS) remnant. The simulation includes a microphysical finite-temperature equation of state (EOS) and neutrino emission and absorption effects via a leakage scheme. We track the thermodynamic properties of the ejecta using Lagrangian tracer particles and determine its composition using the nuclear reaction network SkyNet. We investigate the impact of neutrinos on the nucleosynthetic yields by varying the neutrino luminosities during post-processing. The ejecta show a broad distribution with respect to their electron fraction Ye, peaking between ∼0.25–0.4 depending on the neutrino luminosity employed. We find that the resulting r-process abundance patterns differ from solar, with no significant production of material beyond the second r-process peak when using luminosities recorded by the tracer particles. We also map the HMNS outflows to the radiation hydrodynamics code SNEC and predict the evolution of the bolometric luminosity as well as broadband light curves of the kilonova. The bolometric light curve peaks on the timescale of a day and the brightest emission is seen in the infrared bands. This is the first direct calculation of the r-process yields and kilonova signal expected from HMNS winds based on 3D GRMHD simulations. For longer-lived remnants, these winds may be the dominant ejecta component producing the kilonova emission.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
Field validation of data-driven BSDF and peak extraction models for light-scattering fabric shades
Shading and daylighting systems affect cooling, heating, and lighting energy use by modulating solar radiation through the building façade. Characterizing shading systems holistically and accurately helps designers and engineers evaluate shading systems to achieve energy and non-energy performance goals. These complex fenestration systems can be modeled using Bidirectional Scattering Distribution Functions (BSDF), which map incident radiation to hemispherical distributions of outgoing radiation. Data-driven, tabulated BSDFs are derived from interpolated goniophotometer measured data, then sampled during the raytracing calculation. A peak extraction (PE) algorithm was developed to circumvent limits in BSDF angular resolution, where the specular peak is extracted during simulation by evaluating the BSDF in the through direction and surrounding region. The objective of this study was to validate this measurement and modeling workflow using field monitored data from a full scale testbed with eleven installed fabrics of different weaves, openness factors, and colors and assess the accuracy of the workflow under different adaptation and contrast conditions. Test conditions were limited to clear sky conditions with the sun in the field of view. Results showed that, for tensor tree datasets, vertical illuminance, solar luminance (2.5° apex), and daylight glare probability (DGP) were predicted to within a mean bias error (MBE) error of -456 lx (-12.3%), -3.46e5 (-38.4%), and -0.042 (-7.8%) when full PE occurred. With a binary classification of glare/ no glare, DGP was predicted accurately with a true positive rate of 0.98 and true negative rate of 1.0 using tensor tree data and less accurately with Klems BSDF data, particularly for cases of no glare. The workflow may be of insufficient accuracy to distinguish borderline performance between fabrics using the four-point glare scale, particularly under low adaptation, high contrast daylit conditions. Errors were due to reductions in peak shape and intensity across the BSDF interpolation and data reduction workflow. Future work is needed to better preserve measurement fidelity during interpolation and sampling, which in turn will improve PE performance.
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
An Improved Algorithm for Estimating Surface Shortwave Radiation: Preliminary Evaluation With MODIS Products
Cloud parameters, as key inputs in radiative transfer algorithms, have a critical impact on surface shortwave radiation (SSR) computation. By introducing a parameterization of cloud transmittance and reflectance, based on radiative transfer simulations, this study improves the accuracy of an existing physically based model which severely underestimates SSR under thick cloud conditions. The cloud parameterization adopts the single-layer cloud model and simulates cloud transmittances and reflectances by varying cloud optical thickness, cloud particle size, and solar zenith angle. The revised model is applied to estimate instantaneous SSR using Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) atmospheric and land products. The retrieved SSR is evaluated against observation data from 41 Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) stations and is also compared with the MODIS official SSR product. The root mean square error (RMSE) of the estimated instantaneous radiation is approximately 52 and 98 W m -2 under clear-sky and all-sky conditions, respectively. The accuracy of the improved parameterization is higher than that of the original model, and there is no obvious underestimation of SSR in the case of high cloud optical thickness. Therefore, the new algorithm improves the accuracy of SSR estimates in the presence of thick clouds. Retrievals with the improved model also achieve higher accuracy than the MODIS official SSR product (MCD18A1). To conclude, the reliable performance of the scheme at most BSRN stations illustrates that the improved model can be used to map SSR on a global scale.
42 ENGINEERING↗
A Radiative Transfer Model for Patchy Landscapes Based on Stochastic Radiative Transfer Theory
The availability of global high-resolution land cover maps provides promising a priori knowledge for characterizing subpixel heterogeneity and improving predictions of directional reflectance of coarse-resolution pixels. Due to mutual shadowing and sheltering effects between the adjacent forest and cropland patches, the spectral nonlinear mixing of patchy ecotones is significant, especially when the sun illuminates the ecotone from the forest side with high solar zenith angle. The spectral linear mixture (SLM) approach leads to overestimation of the bidirectional reflectance factor (BRF) in the red band in the principal plane (PP), with a maximum absolute error (MAE) of 0.0063 and a maximum relative error (MRE) of 52.5%, and to underestimation in the near-infrared band in PP with an MAE of 0.0940 and an MRE of 14.5%. In a scenario with randomly distributed boundary orientations, the overestimation of SLM increases with the degree of fragmentation and the view zenith angle. We propose a Radiative Transfer model for patchy ECotones (RTEC). which improves R² from 0.61 to 0.94 in the red band of Landsat-8 directional reflectance at the validation site. The RTEC model provides an efficient and analytical approach for directional reflectance predictions over heterogeneous patchy landscapes at coarse resolution and will be used for biophysical parameter retrievals [e.g., the leaf area index (LAI)] in future applications.
Zeng, Yelu↗
Quantitative assessment of selenium diffusion and passivation in CdSeTe solar cells probed by spatially resolved cathodoluminescence
The introduction of selenium in CdSeTe/CdTe solar cells has led to improved device performances attributed to the passivation of bulk defects. In this work, high-resolution cathodoluminescence experiments are performed on a series of CdSeTe/CdTe thin films with different Se concentrations to quantify the mechanisms and the passivation role of Se. We demonstrate a universal dependence between the Se concentration and the radiative efficiency and a ten-fold enhancement of the luminescence between CdTe and CdSe 0.4 Te 0.6 . Raw luminescence maps are converted into maps of the Se concentration, revealing its graded profile within the stack. We demonstrate the diffusion of Se along CdTe grain boundaries induced by the cadmium chloride annealing treatment and determine the diffusion coefficients, which are more than eight times higher at grain boundaries than in grain interiors. These results provide microscopic insights into the distribution of Se and its impact on the passivation of CdSeTe/CdTe solar cells.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Patterns and rates of soil movement and shallow failures across several small watersheds on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska
Abstract. Thawing permafrost can alter topography, ecosystems, and sediment and carbon fluxes, but predicting landscape evolution of permafrost-influenced watersheds in response to warming and/or hydrological changes remains an unsolved challenge. Sediment flux and slope instability in sloping saturated soils have been commonly predicted from topographic metrics (e.g., slope, drainage area). In addition to topographic factors, cohesion imparted by soil and vegetation and melting ground ice may also control spatial trends in slope stability, but the distribution of ground ice is poorly constrained and hard to predict. To address whether slope stability and surface displacements follow topographic-based predictions, we document recent drivers of permafrost sediment flux present on a landscape in western Alaska that include creep, solifluction, gullying, and catastrophic hillslope failures ranging in size from a few meters to tens of meters, and we find evidence of rapid and substantial landscape change on an annual timescale. We quantify the timing and rate of surface movements using a multi-pronged, multi-scalar dataset including aerial surveys, interannual GPS surveys, synthetic aperture radar interferometry (InSAR), and climate data. Despite clear visual evidence of downslope soil transport of solifluction lobes, we find that the interannual downslope surface displacement of these features does not outpace downslope displacement of soil in locations where lobes are absent (downslope movement means: 7 cm yr−1 for lobes over 2 years vs. 10 cm yr−1 in landscape positions without lobes over 1 year). Annual displacements do not appear related to slope, drainage area, or modeled total solar radiation but are likely related to soil thickness, and volumetric sediment fluxes are high compared to temperate landscapes of comparable bedrock lithology. Time series of InSAR displacements show accelerated movement in late summer, associated with intense rainfall and/or deep thaw. While mapped slope failures do cluster at slope–area thresholds, a simple slope stability model driven with hydraulic conductivities representative of throughflow in mineral and organic soil drastically overpredicts the occurrence of slope failures. This mismatch implies permafrost hillslopes have unaccounted-for cohesion and/or throughflow pathways, perhaps modulated by vegetation, which stabilize slopes against high rainfall. Our results highlight the breadth and complexity of soil transport processes in Arctic landscapes and demonstrate the utility of using a range of synergistic data collection methods to observe multiple scales of landscape change, which can aid in predicting periglacial landscape evolution.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
AERO-MAP: a data compilation and modeling approach to understand spatial variability in fine- and coarse-mode aerosol composition
Abstract. Aerosol particles are an important part of the Earth climate system, and their concentrations are spatially and temporally heterogeneous, as well as being variable in size and composition. Particles can interact with incoming solar radiation and outgoing longwave radiation, change cloud properties, affect photochemistry, impact surface air quality, change the albedo of snow and ice, and modulate carbon dioxide uptake by the land and ocean. High particulate matter concentrations at the surface represent an important public health hazard. There are substantial data sets describing aerosol particles in the literature or in public health databases, but they have not been compiled for easy use by the climate and air quality modeling community. Here, we present a new compilation of PM2.5 and PM10 surface observations, including measurements of aerosol composition, focusing on the spatial variability across different observational stations. Climate modelers are constantly looking for multiple independent lines of evidence to verify their models, and in situ surface concentration measurements, taken at the level of human settlement, present a valuable source of information about aerosols and their human impacts complementarily to the column averages or integrals often retrieved from satellites. We demonstrate a method for comparing the data sets to outputs from global climate models that are the basis for projections of future climate and large-scale aerosol transport patterns that influence local air quality. Annual trends and seasonal cycles are discussed briefly and are included in the compilation. Overall, most of the planet or even the land fraction does not have sufficient observations of surface concentrations – and, especially, particle composition – to characterize and understand the current distribution of particles. Climate models without ammonium nitrate aerosols omit ∼ 10 % of the globally averaged surface concentration of aerosol particles in both PM2.5 and PM10 size fractions, with up to 50 % of the surface concentrations not being included in some regions. In these regions, climate model aerosol forcing projections are likely to be incorrect as they do not include important trends in short-lived climate forcers.
Mahowald, Natalie M. (ORCID:000000022873997X)↗
AATTENUATION—The Atmospheric Attenuation Model for CSP Tower Plants: A Look-Up Table for Operational Implementation
Attenuation of solar radiation between the receiver and the heliostat field in concentrated solar power (CSP) tower plants can reduce the overall system performance significantly. The attenuation varies strongly with time and the average attenuation at different sites might also vary strongly from each other. If no site specific attenuation data is available, the optimal plant design cannot be determined and rough estimations of the attenuation effect are required leading to high uncertainties of yield analysis calculations. The attenuation is caused mainly by water vapor content and aerosol particles in the lower atmospheric layer above ground. Although several on-site measurement systems have been developed during recent years, attenuation data sets are usually not available to be included during the plant project development. An Atmospheric Attenuation (AATTENUATION) model to derive the atmospheric transmittance between a heliostat and receiver on the basis of common direct normal irradiance (DNI), temperature, relative humidity, and barometric pressure measurements was developed and validated by the authors earlier. The model allows the accurate estimation of attenuation for sites with low attenuation and gives an estimation of the attenuation for less clear sites. However, the site-dependent coefficients of the AATTENUATION model had to be developed individually for each site of interest, which required time-consuming radiative transfer simulations, considering the exact location and altitude, as well as the pre-dominant aerosol type at the location. This strongly limited the application of the model despite its typically available input data. In this manuscript, a look-up table (LUT) is presented which enables the application of the AATTENUATION model at the site of interest without the necessity to perform the according complex radiative transfer calculations for each site individually. This enables the application of the AATTENUATION model for virtually all resource assessments for tower plants and in an operational mode in real time within plant monitoring systems around the world. The LUT also facilitates the generation of solar attenuation maps on the basis of long-term meteorological data sets which can be considered during resource assessment for CSP tower plant projects. The LUTs are provided together with this manuscript as supplementary files. The LUT for the AATTENUATION model was developed for a solar zenith angle (SZA) grid of 1°, an altitude grid of 100 m, 7 different standard aerosol types and the standard AFGL atmospheres for mid-latitudes and the tropics. The LUT was tested against the original version of the AATTENUATION model at 4 sites in Morocco and Spain, and it was found that the additional uncertainty introduced by the application of the LUT is negligible. With the information of latitude, longitude, altitude above mean sea level, DNI, relative humidity (RH), ambient temperature (Tair), and barometric pressure (bp), the attenuation can be now derived easily for each site of interest.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗