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At least 19 records

Physical science research needed to evaluate the viability and risks of marine cloud brightening

Marine cloud brightening (MCB) is the deliberate injection of aerosol particles into shallow marine clouds to increase their reflection of solar radiation and reduce the amount of energy absorbed by the climate system. From the physical science perspective, the consensus of a broad international group of scientists is that the viability of MCB will ultimately depend on whether observations and models can robustly assess the scale-up of local-to-global brightening in today’s climate and identify strategies that will ensure an equitable geographical distribution of the benefits and risks associated with projected regional changes in temperature and precipitation. To address the physical science knowledge gaps required to assess the societal implications of MCB, we propose a substantial and targeted program of research—field and laboratory experiments, monitoring, and numerical modeling across a range of scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE-NOAA Marine Cloud Brightening Workshop

Marine Cloud Brightening (MCB) refers to the deliberate injection of aerosol particles into marine clouds to increase their reflection of solar radiation to temporarily cool the planet while decarbonization efforts are pursued. A workshop was conducted to assess the state of knowledge in the field of MCB, and to provide a possible research path toward reducing unknowns in key components of the underlying physical science. This three-day workshop took place in April 2022 and was jointly sponsored by Department of Energy (DOE)’s Atmospheric System Research (ASR) program and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The workshop focused on identifying key physical science knowledge gaps necessary to answer the following driving questions: 1. Is MCB feasible over sufficiently large regions and is implementation practicable for long-enough durations to avert the worst impacts of global warming? 2. If practicable, what will be the regional impacts of such MCB interventions? 3. Do we have adequate systems in place to detect and quantify the effects of such interventions? 4. What physical and engineering science challenges must be resolved satisfactorily before we can consider embarking on MCB?

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE-NOAA Marine Cloud Brightening (Workshop Report 2022)

Marine Cloud Brightening (MCB) refers to the deliberate injection of aerosol particles into marine clouds to increase their reflection of solar radiation to temporarily cool the planet while decarbonization efforts are pursued. A workshop was conducted to assess the state of knowledge in the field of MCB, and to provide a possible research path toward reducing unknowns in key components of the underlying physical science. This three-day workshop took place in April 2022 and was jointly sponsored by Department of Energy (DOE)’s Atmospheric System Research (ASR) program and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The workshop focused on identifying key physical science knowledge gaps necessary to answer the following driving questions: 1) Is MCB feasible over sufficiently large regions and is implementation practicable for long-enough durations to avert the worst impacts of global warming? 2) If practicable, what will be the regional impacts of such MCB interventions? 3) Do we have adequate systems in place to detect and quantify the effects of such interventions? 4) What physical and engineering science challenges must be resolved satisfactorily before we can consider embarking on MCB?

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Substantial Cooling Effect From Aerosol-Induced Increase in Tropical Marine Cloud Cover

With global warming currently standing at approximately +1.2 °C since preindustrial times, climate change is a pressing global issue. Marine cloud brightening is one proposed method to tackle warming through injecting aerosols into marine clouds to enhance their reflectivity and thereby planetary albedo. However, because it is unclear how aerosols influence clouds, especially cloud cover, both climate projections and the effectiveness of marine cloud brightening remain uncertain. Here, we use satellite observations of volcanic eruptions in Hawaii to quantify the aerosol fingerprint on tropical marine clouds. We observe a large enhancement in reflected sunlight, mainly due to an aerosol-induced increase in cloud cover. This observed strong negative aerosol forcing suggests that the current level of global warming is driven by a weaker net radiative forcing than previously thought, arising from the competing effects of greenhouse gases and aerosols. This implies a greater sensitivity of Earth’s climate to radiative forcing and therefore a larger warming response to both rising greenhouse gas concentrations and reductions in atmospheric aerosols due to air quality measures. However, our findings also indicate that mitigation of global warming via marine cloud brightening is plausible and is most effective in humid and stable conditions in the tropics where solar radiation is strong.

Atmospheric science↗

Multi-campaign ship and aircraft observations of marine cloud condensation nuclei and droplet concentrations

In situ marine cloud droplet number concentrations (CDNCs), cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), and CCN proxies, based on particle sizes and optical properties, are accumulated from seven field campaigns: ACTIVATE; NAAMES; CAMP 2 EX; ORACLES; SOCRATES; MARCUS; and CAPRICORN2. Each campaign involves aircraft measurements, ship-based measurements, or both. Measurements collected over the North and Central Atlantic, Indo-Pacific, and Southern Oceans, represent a range of clean to polluted conditions in various climate regimes. With the extensive range of environmental conditions sampled, this data collection is ideal for testing satellite remote detection methods of CDNC and CCN in marine environments. Remote measurement methods are vital to expanding the available data in these difficult-to-reach regions of the Earth and improving our understanding of aerosol-cloud interactions. The data collection includes particle composition and continental tracers to identify potential contributing CCN sources. Several of these campaigns include High Spectral Resolution Lidar (HSRL) and polarimetric imaging measurements and retrievals that will be the basis for the next generation of space-based remote sensors and, thus, can be utilized as satellite surrogates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Multi-Campaign Ship and Aircraft Observations of Marine Cloud Condensation Nuclei and Droplet Concentrations

In-situ marine cloud droplet number concentrations (CDNCs), cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), and CCN proxies, based on particle sizes and optical properties, are accumulated from seven field campaigns: ACTIVATE; NAAMES; CAMP2EX; ORACLES; SOCRATES; MARCUS; and CAPRICORN2. Each campaign involves aircraft measurements, ship-based measurements, or both. Measurements collected over the North and Central Atlantic, Indo-Pacific, and Southern Oceans, represent a range of clean to polluted conditions in various climate regimes. With the extensive range of environmental conditions sampled, this data collection is ideal for testing satellite remote detection methods of CDNC and CCN in marine environments. Remote measurement methods are vital to expanding the available data in these difficult-to-reach regions of the Earth and improving our understanding of aerosolcloud interactions. The data collection includes particle composition and continental tracers to identify potential contributing CCN sources. Several of these campaigns include High Spectral Resolution Lidar (HSRL) and polarimetric imaging measurements and retrievals that will be the basis for the next generation of space-based remote sensors and, thus, can be utilized as satellite surrogates.

Atmospheric chemistry↗

Rethinking the Susceptibility-Based Strategy for Marine Cloud Brightening Climate Intervention: Experiment With CESM2 and Its Implications

Previous modeling studies indicate that even though marine cloud brightening under a susceptibility-based strategy is effective in reducing the global average surface temperature, it triggers a La Niña-like sea-surface temperature response with cooling mostly confined within lower latitudes. Here we explore a different cloud seeding strategy involving seeding of regions with low susceptibility, primarily over the ocean in midlatitudes during the winter. Simulations with the Community Earth System Model, version 2 reveal that because the regional forcing is weaker and more widespread, cooling is more evenly distributed over the globe. This new strategy also does not result in the La Niña-like state seen in the other strategies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

On the Importance of Sea Surface Temperature for Aerosol–Induced Brightening of Marine Clouds and Implications for Cloud Feedback in a Future Warmer Climate

Marine low clouds are one of the greatest sources of uncertainty for climate projection. We present an observed climatology of cloud albedo susceptibility to cloud droplet number concentration perturbations (S 0 ) with changing sea surface temperature (SST) and estimated inversion strength for single-layer warm clouds over the North Atlantic Ocean, using eight years of satellite and reanalysis data. The key findings are that SST has a dominant control on S 0 in the presence of co-varying synoptic conditions and aerosol perturbations. Cloud brightening in regions with positive S 0 weakens with increasing local SST. Higher SST significantly hastens cloud-top evaporation with increasing aerosol loading, by accelerating entrainment and facilitating entrainment drying. In a global-warming-like scenario where aerosol loading is reduced, more cloud brightening is expected, mainly as a result of reduced entrainment drying. Furthermore, our results imply a less positive low-cloud liquid water path feedback in a warmer climate with decreasing aerosol loading.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Aerosol-induced closure of marine cloud cells: enhanced effects in the presence of precipitation

Abstract. The Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) version 4.3 model is configured within a Lagrangian framework to quantify the impact of aerosols on evolving cloud fields. Kilometer-scale simulations utilizing meteorological boundary conditions are based on 10 case study days offering diverse meteorology during the Aerosol and Cloud Experiments in the Eastern North Atlantic (ACE-ENA). Measurements from aircraft, the ground-based Atmosphere Radiation Measurement (ARM) site at Graciosa Island in the Azores, and A-Train and geostationary satellites are utilized for validation, demonstrating good agreement with the WRF-simulated cloud and aerosol properties. Higher aerosol concentration leads to suppressed drizzle and increased cloud water content in all case study days. These changes lead to larger radiative cooling rates at cloud top, enhanced vertical velocity variance, and increased vertical and horizontal wind speed near the base of the lower-tropospheric inversion. As a result, marine cloud cell area expands, narrowing the gap between shallow clouds and increasing cloud optical thickness, liquid water content, and the top-of-atmosphere outgoing shortwave flux. While similar aerosol effects are observed in lightly to non-raining clouds, they tend to be smaller by comparison. These simulations show a relationship between cloud cell area expansion and the radiative adjustments caused by liquid water path and cloud fraction changes. The adjustments are positive and scale as 74 % and 51 %, respectively, relative to the Twomey effect. While higher-resolution large-eddy simulations may provide improved representation of cloud-top mixing processes, these results emphasize the importance of addressing mesoscale cloud-state transitions in the quantification of aerosol radiative forcing that cannot be attained from traditional climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A protocol for model intercomparison of impacts of marine cloud brightening climate intervention

A modeling protocol (defined by a series of climate model simulations with specified model output) is introduced. Studies using these simulations are designed to improve the understanding of climate impacts using a strategy for climate intervention (CI) known as marine cloud brightening (MCB) in specific regions; therefore, the protocol is called MCB-REG (where REG stands for region). The model simulations are not intended to assess consequences of a realistic MCB deployment intended to achieve specific climate targets but instead to expose responses to interventions in six regions with pervasive cloud systems that are often considered candidates for such a deployment. A calibration step involving simulations with fixed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) is first used to identify a common forcing, and then coupled simulations with forcing in individual regions and combinations of regions are used to examine climate impacts. Synthetic estimates constructed by superposing responses from simulations with forcing in individual regions are considered a means of approximating the climate impacts produced when MCB interventions are introduced in multiple regions. A few results comparing simulations from three modern climate models (CESM2, E3SMv2, and UKESM1) are used to illustrate the similarities and differences between model behavior and the utility of estimates of MCB climate responses that were synthesized by summing responses introduced in individual regions. Cloud responses to aerosol injections differ substantially between models (CESM2 clouds appear much more susceptible to aerosol emissions than the other models), but patterns in precipitation and surface temperature responses were similar when forcing is imposed with similar amplitudes in the same regions. A previously identified La Niña-like response to forcing introduced in the Southeast Pacific is evident in this study, but the amplitude of the response was shown to markedly differ across the three models. Other common response patterns were also found and are discussed. Forcing in the Southeast Atlantic consistently (across all three models) produces weaker global cooling than that in other regions, and the Southeast Pacific and South Pacific show the strongest cooling. This indicates that the efficiency of a given intervention depends on not only the susceptibility of the clouds to aerosol perturbations, but also the strength of the underlying radiative feedbacks and ocean responses operating within each region. These responses were generally robust across models, but more studies and an examination of responses with ensembles would be beneficial.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Observations of the Global Characteristics and Regional Radiative Effects of Marine Cloud Liquid Water

The large-scale spatial distribution and temporal variability of cloud liquid water path (LWP) over the world's oceans and the relationship of cloud LWP to temperature and the radiation budget are investigated using recent satellite measurements from the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I), the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE), and the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP). Observations of cloud liquid water on a 2.5 deg x 2.5 deg and are used over a 53-month period beginning July 1987 and ending in December 1991. The highest values of cloud liquid water (greater than 0.13 kg/sq m) occur largely along principal routes of northern midlatitude storms and in areas dominated by tropical convection. The zonally averaged structure is distinctly trimodal, where maxima appear in the midlatitudes and near the equator. The average marine cloud LWP over the globe is estimated to be about 0.113 kg/sq m. Its highest seasonal variability is typically between 15% and 25% of the annual mean but in certain locations can exceed 30%. Comparisons of cloud LWP to temperature for low clouds during JJA and DJF of 1990 show significant positive correlations at colder temperatures and negative correlations at warmer temperatures. The correlations also exhibit strong seasonal and regional variation. Coincident and collocated observations of cloud LWP from the SSM/I and albedo measurements from the Earth Radiation Budget Satellite (ERBS) and the NOAA-10 satellite are compared for low clouds in the North Pacific and North Atlantic. The observed albedo-LWP relationships correspond reasonably well with theory, where the average cloud effective radius (r(sub e)) is 11.1 microns and the standard deviation is 5.2 microns. The large variability in the inferred values of r(sub e) suggests that other factors may be important in the albedo-LWP relationships. In terms of the effect of the LWP on the net cloud forcing, the authors find that a 0.05 kg/sq m increase in LWP (for LWP less than 0.2 kg/sq m) results in a -25 W/sq m change in the net cloud forcing at a solar zenith angle of 75 deg.

Greenwald, Thomas J.↗

Multifrequency radar observations of marine clouds during the EPCAPE campaign

The Eastern Pacific Cloud Aerosol Precipitation Experiment (EPCAPE) was a year-round campaign conducted by the US Department of Energy at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in La Jolla, CA, USA, with a focus on characterizing atmospheric processes at a coastal location. The ground-based prototype of a new Ka-, W-, and G-band (35.75, 94.88, and 238.8 GHz) profiling atmospheric radar, named CloudCube, which was developed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, took part in the experiment during 6 weeks in March and April 2023. This article describes the unique data sets that were obtained during the field campaign from a variety of marine clouds and light precipitation. These are, to the best of the authors' knowledge, the first observations of atmospheric clouds using simultaneous multifrequency measurements including 238.8 GHz. These data sets therefore provide an exceptional opportunity to study and analyze hydrometeors with diameters in the millimeter- and submillimeter size range that can be used to better understand cloud and precipitation structure, formation, and evolution. The data sets referenced in this article are intended to provide a complete, extensive, and high-quality collection of G-band data in the form of Doppler spectra and Doppler moments. In addition, Ka-band and W-band reflectivity and Ka-, W-, and G-band reflectivity ratio profiles are included for several cases of interest on 6 different days.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Investigation of Surface and Marine-Cloud Coupling and its Impact on Cloud Droplet Number Concentrations and Cloud Cover Over the Southern Ocean

The proposed work involves characterizing and quantifying both the thermodynamic and dynamical coupling of marine low clouds (MLC) with the sea surface using Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) observations during MARCUS field campaign and an LES model. ARM data from multiple sensors will be used (e.g., Doppler cloud radar, ceilometer, and microwave radiometer) to characterize the MLC-surface coupling by virtue of the vertical structure and integrated quantities of boundary-layer clouds, aerosols, as well as atmospheric profiles and surface meteorology. We have used a combination of case studies and statistics-based composite analyses to find any linkages between large-scale dynamics, MLC-surface coupling, and cloud and boundary layer properties, the sequence of which reflects the chain of causality. An LES model with explicit aerosol physics, which includes the cycle of aerosols by being consumed as CCN and be regenerated following cloud droplet evaporation, has been run to determine the sources and sinks of Nd and their dependence on the degree of MLC-surface coupling. We have examined the systematic differences in both Nd and cloud occurrence between the two clusters under different meteorological conditions and further examine their respective roles, as well as causal relationships by means of LES modeling. This study helped improve our understanding of the ACI by differentiating the dynamic role of the coupling and cloud physics denoted by Nd, bridging the linkage in the chain toward understanding mechanisms governing the persistence of MLC over the Southern Ocean, solving the long-lasting problem of the cloud cover underestimation over the SO by GCMs. Ample ARM data and LES model have been employed to achieve the objectives of the study.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Natural marine cloud brightening in the Southern Ocean

Abstract. The number of cloud droplets per unit volume (Nd) is a fundamentally important property of marine boundary layer (MBL) liquid clouds that, at constant liquid water path, exerts considerable controls on albedo. Past work has shown that regional Nd has a direct correlation to marine primary productivity (PP) because of the role of seasonally varying, biogenically derived precursor gases in modulating secondary aerosol properties. These linkages are thought to be observable over the high-latitude oceans, where strong seasonal variability in aerosol and meteorology covary in mostly pristine environments. Here, we examine Nd variability derived from 5 years of MODIS Level 2-derived cloud properties in a broad region of the summer eastern Southern Ocean and adjacent marginal seas. We demonstrate latitudinal, longitudinal and temporal gradients in Nd that are strongly correlated with the passage of air masses over high-PP waters that are mostly concentrated along the Antarctic Shelf poleward of 60∘ S. We find that the albedo of MBL clouds in the latitudes south of 60∘ S is significantly higher than similar liquid water path (LWP) clouds north of this latitude.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Changes in TOA SW Fluxes over Marine Clouds When Estimated via Semiphysical Angular Distribution Models

Top-of-atmosphere (TOA) shortwave (SW) angular distribution models (ADMs) approximate—per angular direction of an imagined upward hemisphere—the intensity of sunlight scattered back from a specific Earth–atmosphere scene. ADMs are, thus, critical when converting satellite-borne broadband radiometry into estimated radiative fluxes. This paper applies a set of newly developed ADMs with a more refined scene definition and demonstrates tenable changes in estimated fluxes compared to currently operational ADMs. Newly developed ADMs use a semiphysical framework to consider cloud-top effective radius (¯¯R_e) and above-cloud water vapor (ACWV), in addition to accounting for surface wind speed and clouds’ phase, fraction, and optical depth. In effect, instantaneous TOA SW fluxes for marine liquid-phase clouds had the largest flux differences (of up to 25 W m−2) for lower solar zenith angles and cloud optical depth greater than 10 due to extremes in ¯¯R_e or ACWV. In regions where clouds had persistently extreme levels of ¯¯R_e (here mostly for ¯¯R_e < 7μm and ¯¯R_e > 15μm) or ACWV, instantaneous fluxes estimated from Aqua, Terra, Meteosat-8, and Meteosat-9 satellites using the two ADMs differed systematically, resulting in significant deviations in daily mean fluxes (up to ±10 W m^(−2)) and monthly mean fluxes (up to ±5 W m^(−2)). Flux estimates using newly developed, semiphysical ADMs may contribute to a better understanding of solar fluxes over low-level clouds. It remains to be seen whether aerosol indirect effects are impacted by these updates.

angular distribution models (ADMs)↗

Clarifying remotely-retrieved precipitation of shallow marine clouds from the NSF/NCAR Gulfstream V

Precipitation is a key process within the shallow cloud lifecycle. The Cloud System Evolution in the Trades (CSET) campaign included the first deployment of a 94 GHz Doppler radar and 532 nm lidar. Despite a larger sampling volume, initial mean radar/lidar retrieved rain rates (Schwartz et al. 2019) based on the upward-pointing remote sensor datasets are systematically less than those measured by in-situ precipitation probes in the cumulus regime. Subsequent retrieval improvements produce rainrates that compare better to in-situ values, but still underestimate. Retrieved shallow cumulus drop sizes can remain too small and too few, with an overestimated shape parameter narrowing the raindrop size distribution too much. Three potential causes for the discrepancy are explored: the gamma functional fit to the dropsize distribution, attenuation by rain and cloud water, and an underaccounting of Mie dampening of the reflectivity. A truncated exponential fit may represent the dropsizes below a showering cumulus cloud more realistically, although further work would be needed to fully evaluate the impact of a different dropsize representation upon the retrieval. The rain attenuation is within the measurement uncertainty of the radar. Mie dampening of the reflectivity is shown to be significant, in contrast to previous stratocumulus campaigns with lighter rain rates, and may be difficult to constrain well with the remote measurements. An alternative approach combines an a priori determination of the dropsize distribution width based on the in-situ data with the mean radar Doppler velocity and reflectivity. This can produce realistic retrievals, although a more comprehensive assessment is needed to better characterize the retrieval errors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗