Decadal‐scale sensitivity of Northeast Greenland ice flow to errors in surface mass balance using ISSM
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N-J. Schlegel↗
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A Wind-Driven Snow Redistribution Module for Alpine3d V3.3.0: Adaptations Designed for Downscaling Ice Sheet Surface Mass Balance
Ice sheets gain mass via snow accumulation at the ice sheet surface, which is the primary component of surface mass balance. On the Antarctic ice sheet, winds redistribute snow resulting in surface mass balance that is variable in both space and time. Representing wind-driven snow redistribution processes in models is critical for local assessments of surface mass balance, repeat altimetry studies, and interpretation of ice core accumulation records. To this end, we have adapted Alpine3D, an existing distributed snow modeling framework, to downscale Antarctic surface mass balance to horizontal resolutions up to 1 km. In particular, we have introduced a new two-dimensional advection-based wind-driven snow redistribution module that is driven by an offline coupling between WindNinja, a wind downscaling model, and Alpine3D. We then show that large accumulation variability can be at least partially explained by terrain-induced wind speed variations which subsequently redistribute snow around rolling topography. By comparing Alpine3D to airborne-derived snow accumulation measurements within a testing domain over Pine Island Glacier in West Antarctica, we demonstrate that our Alpine3D downscaling approach improves surface mass balance estimates when compared to MERRA-2, a global atmospheric reanalysis which we use as atmospheric forcing. In particular, when compared to MERRA-2, Alpine3D reduces simulated surface mass balance root mean squared error by 23.4 mm w.e.yr−1 (13%) and increases variance explained by 24%. Despite these improvements, Alpine3D still underestimates observed accumulation variability, thus providing an opportunity for future model improvement.
Eric Keenan↗
Physics-Based SNOWPACK Model Improves Representation of Near-Surface Antarctic Snow and Firn Density
Estimates of snow and firn density are required for satellite-altimetry-based retrievals of ice sheet mass balance that rely on volume-to-mass conversions. Therefore, biases and errors in presently used density models confound assessments of ice sheet mass balance and by extension ice sheet contribution to sea level rise. Despite this importance, most contemporary firn densification models rely on simplified semi-empirical methods, which are partially reflected by significant modeled density errors when compared to observations. In this study, we present a new drifting-snow compaction scheme that we have implemented into SNOWPACK, a physics-based land surface snow model. We show that our new scheme improves existing versions of SNOWPACK by increasing simulated near-surface (defined as the top 10 m) density to be more in line with observations (near-surface bias reduction from −44.9 to −5.4 kg m−3). Furthermore, we demonstrate high-quality simulation of near-surface Antarctic snow and firn density at 122 observed density profiles across the Antarctic ice sheet, as indicated by reduced model biases throughout most of the near-surface firn column when compared to two semi-empirical firn densification models (SNOWPACK mean bias=−9.7 kg m−3, IMAU-FDM mean bias=−32.5 kg m−3, GSFC-FDM mean bias=15.5 kg m−3). Notably, our analysis is restricted to the near surface where firn density is most variable due to accumulation and compaction variability driven by synoptic weather and seasonal climate variability. Additionally, the GSFC-FDM exhibits lower mean density bias from 7–10 m (SNOWPACK bias=−22.5 kg m−3, GSFC-FDM bias=10.6 kg m−3) and throughout the entire near surface at high-accumulation sites (SNOWPACK bias=−31.4 kg m−3, GSFC-FDM bias=−4.7 kg m−3). However, we found that the performance of SNOWPACK did not degrade when applied to sites that were not included in the calibration of semi-empirical models. This suggests that SNOWPACK may possibly better represent firn properties in locations without extensive observations and under future climate scenarios, when firn properties are expected to diverge from their present state.
Eric Keenan↗
A Range Correction for Icesat and Its Potential Impact on Ice-sheet Mass Balance Studies
We report on a previously undocumented range error in NASA's Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) that degrades elevation precision and introduces a small but significant elevation trend over the ICESat mission period. This range error (the Gaussian-Centroid or 'G-C'offset) varies on a shot-to-shot basis and exhibits increasing scatter when laser transmit energies fall below 20 mJ. Although the G-C offset is uncorrelated over periods less than1 day, it evolves over the life of each of ICESat's three lasers in a series of ramps and jumps that give rise to spurious elevation trends of −0.92 to −1.90 cm yr(exp −1), depending on the time period considered. Using ICESat data over the Ross and Filchner-Ronne ice shelves we show that (1) the G-C offset introduces significant biases in ice-shelf mass balance estimates, and (2) the mass balance bias can vary between regions because of different temporal samplings of ICESat.We can reproduce the effect of the G-C offset over these two ice shelves by fitting trends to sample-weighted mean G-C offsets for each campaign, suggesting that it may not be necessary to fully repeat earlier ICESat studies to determine the impact of the G-C offset on ice-sheet mass balance estimates.
mass balance↗
Skylab water balance error analysis
Estimates of the precision of the net water balance were obtained for the entire Skylab preflight and inflight phases as well as for the first two weeks of flight. Quantitative estimates of both total sampling errors and instrumentation errors were obtained. It was shown that measurement error is minimal in comparison to biological variability and little can be gained from improvement in analytical accuracy. In addition, a propagation of error analysis demonstrated that total water balance error could be accounted for almost entirely by the errors associated with body mass changes. Errors due to interaction between terms in the water balance equation (covariances) represented less than 10% of the total error. Overall, the analysis provides evidence that daily measurements of body water changes obtained from the indirect balance technique are reasonable, precise, and relaible. The method is not biased toward net retention or loss.
Leonard, J. I.↗
Accelerated Simulation of Air Pollution Using NVIDIA RAPIDS
Atmospheric chemistry models are a central tool to study and forecast the impact of air pollution on the environment, vegetation, and human health. However, the numerical simulation of chemical kinetics is computationally expensive due to the stiffness of the system of ordinary differential equations that describes atmospheric chemistry. Here we present an alternative approach to the computation of atmospheric chemistry based on machine learning. Our training data set is produced using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model with GEOS-Chem chemistry, run on the NASA Center for Climate Simulation (NCCS) Discover supercomputing cluster on 384 Intel Xeon Haswell cores. This model spends more than 50% of total run time on solving atmospheric chemistry. The data set contains as input features the air pollution concentrations before solving the differential equations, together with some key physical parameters such as temperature and sun intensity. As target variables we define the air pollution concentrations after solving the differential equations. Using Dask-cuDF and Dask-XGBoost on the NVIDIA RAPIDS platform on 8 Tesla V100 GPUs, we generate from this training set gradient boosted decision tree models that can reproduce the simulation of chemical kinetics. We do this on the NCCS Advanced Data Analytics Platform (ADAPT) science cloud environment. Our application takes full advantage of recent advances in Dask-XGBoost, such as multi-node and multi-GPU scaling for distributed training with large data sets. The increase in training data size enabled by this is critical to capture the full range of chemical environments encountered across the globe and all annual seasons.The boosted tree models offer good predictability and show many of the features of the full chemistry reference simulation. Further improvements can be achieved through mass balance considerations and by accounting for error correlations. We incorporate the boosted tree models into the GEOS reference model using XGBoost's C API. This enables a seamless integration of the GPU trained models into GEOS-Chem, which is written in Fortran and optimized for use in a massively parallel CPU environment. We show the benefits of this approach and discuss the potential speedup of this machine learning accelerated atmospheric chemistry model.
Keller, Christoph A.↗
Evaluating a Regional Climate Model Simulation of Greenland Ice Sheet Snow and Firn Density for Improved Surface Mass Balance Estimates
Modeling vertical profiles of snow and firn density near the surface of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) is key to estimating GrIS mass balance, and by extension, global sea level change. To understand sources of error in simulated GrIS density, we compare GrIS density profiles from a leading regional climate model with coincident in situ measurements. We identify key contributors to model density and mass balance biases, including underestimated simulated fresh snow density (which leads to underestimation of density in the top 1 m of snow by ~10%). In areas undergoing frequent melting, positive density biases (of 7% in the top 1 m, and 10% between 1 and 10 m) are likely associated with errors in representing meltwater production, retention and refreezing. The results highlight the importance of accurately capturing fresh snow density and meltwater processes in models used to estimate GrIS mass balance change.
P M Alexander↗
Hybrid Glacier Inventory, Gravimetry and Altimetry (HIGA) Mass Balance Product for Greenland and the Canadian Arctic
We present a novel inversion algorithm that generates a mass balance field that is simultaneously consistent with independent observations of glacier inventory derived from optical imagery, cryosphere-attributed mass trends derived from satellite gravimetry, and ice surface elevation trends derived from airborne and satellite altimetry. We use this algorithm to assess mass balance across Greenland and the Canadian Arctic over the Sep-2003 to Oct- 2009 period at 26 kilometers resolution. We evaluate local algorithm-inferred mass balance against forty in situ point observations. This evaluation yields a root mean squared error (RMSE) of 0.15 mWE/a ( 0.15 meters (water equivalent) per annum), and highlights a paucity of in situ observations from regions of high dynamic mass loss and peripheral glaciers. We assess mass losses of 212 plus or minus 67 Gigatons per annum to the Greenland ice sheet proper, 38 Gigatons per annum to peripheral glaciers in Greenland, and 42 Gigatons per annum to glaciers in the Canadian Arctic. These magnitudes of mass loss are dependent on the gravimetry-derived spherical harmonic mass trend we invert. We spatially partition the transient glacier continuity equation by differencing algorithm inferred mass balance from modeled surface mass balance, in order to solve the horizontal divergence of ice flux as a residual. This residual ice dynamic field infers flux divergence (or submergent flow) in the ice sheet accumulation area and at tidewater margins, and flux convergence (or emergent flow) in land-terminating ablation areas, which is consistent with continuum mechanics theory.
Altimetry↗
State of balance of the cryosphere
Available observations and mass balance estimates of the cryosphere are summarized. Problems discussed include mountain glaciers, the Greenland ice sheet, the Antarctic ice sheet, conventional glacier measurement techniques, and satellite applications in glacier mass balance studies. It is concluded that the interior part of the Greenland ice sheet is thickening or in near equilibrium. Estimates of the mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet suggest that it is positive, although the error limits allow for a slightly negative balance.
Van Der Veen, C. J.↗
The GRACE Mission: Meeting the Technical Challenges
The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) Mission is scheduled for launch in June 2001. Within the first year of the GRACE Mission, the project has a minimum science requirement to deliver a new model of the Earth's static geoid with an error of less than 1 cm to spherical harmonic degree seventy (70). However, the performance of the GRACE Mission is designed to exceed this minimum requirement by a factor of 25 or more. For spherical harmonic degrees of up to 40, we expect to improve the current knowledge of the gravity field by one thousand (1000x). The GRACE Mission uses the satellite-to-satellite tracking (SST) technique. The twin GRACE satellites are the instruments that measure the nonuniformities in the Earth's gravity field. Nonuniformities in the gravity field cause the relative distance between the centers-of-mass of the two satellites to vary as they fly over the Earth. Atmospheric drag is the largest non-gravitational disturbing force. Drag is measured and will be used to correct changes in the satellite-to-satellite range measured by an SST microwave link. The microwave link will measure changes in the range between the two GRACE satellites with an error approaching 1 micron. We will discuss how these instrumentation requirements affect the configuration, the mass balance, the thermal control and the aerodynamic design of the satellites, and the design of the microwave SST link and the accelerometer. Finally, the question of how noise in these components limits the overall accuracy of the gravity models will be addressed.
Davis, E. S.↗
Calculations of multiple scattering-induced errors in the GLAS mission
The Geoscience Lidar Altimeter System (GLAS) is a laser altimeter designed to measure temporal changes in the topography and mass balance of the Earth's ice sheets. GLAS is scheduled to be launched as part of the Earth Observing System (EOS) in 2001. Due to the large pulse width of GLAS and the slope (and roughness) of the ice sheets, the mean elevation of the laser's surface spot will be estimated from the centroid of the return pulse. While the accuracy of individual altimetry measurements is expected to be 15 cm, a cross-over technique that averages the elevation differences at selected points on the ice sheets will allow GLAS to detect mean ice elevation changes as small as 2 cm per year. One factor that may degrade the proposed accuracy of the altimeter measurements is the effect of multiple scattering by thin clouds and aerosols over the ice sheets. In the return pulse, some photons from the lidar are slightly deflected by cloud particles but still return to the instrument detector. Since these photons travel a longer path than photons that pass directly to and from the surface, the mean travel time of the pulse is lengthened and the centroid of the return pulse is shifted toward a later time . This study intends to determine the importance of this source of altimetry error in the GLAS measurements. Two methods will be used to estimate path delays in the GLAS lidar for a range of cloud conditions. An analytic expression of a doubly scattered return signal (Eloranta, 1972) will be compared to Monte Carlo simulations that estimate path delays by cloud, aerosol and molecular scattering. The results from both methods will be discussed in relationship to current knowledge of Arctic cloud climatology, and the impact of multiple scattering on GLAS altimeter measurements will be evaluated.
Duda, David P.↗
Far-infrared room-temperature focal plane modules for polar radiant energy in the Far InfraRed experiment
This work presents focal plane modules for Polar Radiant Energy in the Far InfraRed Experiment, a passive remote-sensing instrument aimed to determine errors in the estimated outgoing longwave radiation in the Earth’s polar regions to reduce uncertainties in surface emissivity, mass balance, and ice flux. The focal plane arrays are micromachined at JPL and integrated into sub-assembly modules to be mounted on the optical telescope of the instrument.
White, Mary↗
An Iterated Global Mascon Solution with Focus on Land Ice Mass Evolution
Land ice mass evolution is determined from a new GRACE global mascon solution. The solution is estimated directly from the reduction of the inter-satellite K-band range rate observations taking into account the full noise covariance, and formally iterating the solution. The new solution increases signal recovery while reducing the GRACE KBRR observation residuals. The mascons are estimated with 10-day and 1-arc-degree equal area sampling, applying anisotropic constraints for enhanced temporal and spatial resolution of the recovered land ice signal. The details of the solution are presented including error and resolution analysis. An Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) adaptive filter is applied to the mascon solution time series to compute timing of balance seasons and annual mass balances. The details and causes of the spatial and temporal variability of the land ice regions studied are discussed.
Luthcke, S. B.↗
An Evaluation of A Physics-Based Firn Model and A Semi-Empirical Firn Model Across the Greenland Ice Sheet (1980–2020)
The Greenland Ice Sheet's (GrIS) firn layer buffers the ice sheet's contribution to sea level rise by storing meltwater in its pore space. However, available pore space and meltwater retention capability is lost due to ablation of the firn layer and refreezing of meltwater as near-surface ice slabs in the firn. Understanding how firn properties respond to climate is important for constraining the GrIS's future contribution to sea level rise in a warming climate. Observations of firn density provide detailed information about firn properties, but they are spatially and temporally limited. Here we use two firn models, the physics-based SNOWPACK model and the Community Firn Model configured with a semi-empirical densification equation (CFM-GSFC), to quantify firn properties across the GrIS from 1980 through 2020. We use an identical forcing (Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) atmospheric reanalysis) for SNOWPACK and the CFM-GSFC in order to isolate firn model differences. To evaluate the models, we compare simulated firn properties, including firn air content (FAC), to measurements from the Surface Mass Balance and Snow on Sea Ice Working Group (SUMup) dataset of snow and firn density. Both models perform well (mean absolute percentage errors of 14 % in SNOWPACK and 16 % in the CFM-GSFC), though their performance is hindered by the spatial resolution of the atmospheric forcing. In the ice-sheet-wide simulations, the 1980–1995 average spatially integrated FAC (i.e., air volume in the firn) for the upper 100 m is 34 645 km 3 from SNOWPACK and 28 581 km 3 from the CFM-GSFC. The discrepancy in the magnitude of the modeled FAC stems from differences in densification with depth and variations in the sensitivity of the models to atmospheric forcing. In more recent years (2005–2020), both models simulate substantial depletion of pore space. During this period, the spatially integrated FAC across the entire GrIS decreases by 3.2 % (−66.6 km 3 yr −1 ) in SNOWPACK and 1.5 % (−17.4 km 3 yr −1 ) in the CFM-GSFC. These differing magnitudes demonstrate how model differences propagate throughout the FAC record. Over the full modeled record (1980–2020), SNOWPACK simulates a loss of pore space equivalent to 3 mm of sea level rise buffering, while the CFM-GSFC simulates a loss of 1 mm. The greatest depletion in FAC is along the margins and especially along the western margin where observations and models show the formation of near-surface, low-permeability ice slabs that may inhibit meltwater storage.
Megan Thompson-Munson↗
Reanalysis Surface Mass Balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet along K-transect (2000-2014)
Accurate estimates of surface mass balance over the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) would contribute to understanding the cause of recent changes and would help to better estimate the future contribution of the GrIS to sea-level rise. Given the limitations of in-situ measurement, modeling, and remote sensing, it is critical to explore the opportunity to merge the available data to better characterize the spatial and temporal variation of the GrIS surface mass balance (SMB). This work utilizes a particle batch smoother data assimilation technique that yields SMB estimates that benefit from the snow model Crocus and a 16-day albedo product derived from satellite remote sensing data. Comparison of the results against in-situ SMB measurements shows that the assimilation of the albedo product reduces the root mean square error (RMSE) of the posterior estimates of SMB by 51% and reduces bias by 95%.
Greenland Ice Sheet↗
Balance Velocities of the Greenland Ice Sheet
We present a map of balance velocities for the Greenland ice sheet. The resolution of the underlying DEM, which was derived primarily from radar altimetry data, yields far greater detail than earlier balance velocity estimates for Greenland. The velocity contours reveal in striking detail the location of an ice stream in northeastern Greenland, which was only recently discovered using satellite imagery. Enhanced flow associated with all of the major outlets is clearly visible, although small errors in the source data result in less accurate estimates of the absolute flow speeds. Nevertheless, the balance map is useful for ice-sheet modelling, mass balance studies, and field planning.
Joughin, Ian↗
Accurate measurements of mass and center of mass
Object is measured for mass and center of mass with accuracies of 0.01% and 0.14 respectively, using method that eliminates errors in alignment, leveling, and calibration. Method is applied to scientific instruments, recorder turntables, flywheels, and other devices that require precise balancing.
Chow, E. Y.↗
Variable Acceleration Force Calibration System (VACS)
Conventionally, force balances have been calibrated manually, using a complex system of free hanging precision weights, bell cranks, and/or other mechanical components. Conventional methods may provide sufficient accuracy in some instances, but are often quite complex and labor-intensive, requiring three to four man-weeks to complete each full calibration. To ensure accuracy, gravity-based loading is typically utilized. However, this often causes difficulty when applying loads in three simultaneous, orthogonal axes. A complex system of levers, cranks, and cables must be used, introducing increased sources of systematic error, and significantly increasing the time and labor intensity required to complete the calibration. One aspect of the VACS is a method wherein the mass utilized for calibration is held constant, and the acceleration is changed to thereby generate relatively large forces with relatively small test masses. Multiple forces can be applied to a force balance without changing the test mass, and dynamic forces can be applied by rotation or oscillating acceleration. If rotational motion is utilized, a mass is rigidly attached to a force balance, and the mass is exposed to a rotational field. A large force can be applied by utilizing a large rotational velocity. A centrifuge or rotating table can be used to create the rotational field, and fixtures can be utilized to position the force balance. The acceleration may also be linear. For example, a table that moves linearly and accelerates in a sinusoidal manner may also be utilized. The test mass does not have to move in a path that is parallel to the ground, and no re-leveling is therefore required. Balance deflection corrections may be applied passively by monitoring the orientation of the force balance with a three-axis accelerometer package. Deflections are measured during each test run, and adjustments with respect to the true applied load can be made during the post-processing stage. This paper will present the development and testing of the VASC concept.
Rhew, Ray D.↗