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Paths to circularity for plastics in the United States
In 2019, the United States consumed over 57 million metric tons (MMT) of plastic with less than 7% recovered for reuse. This study provides an updated material flow analysis at national and regional scales for all durable and single-use plastics in the United States. From this material flow analysis, we develop a series of alternative future national plastic flow scenarios that envision a scale-up of recycling technologies, incorporating technical limitations and sorting infrastructure constraints. The results suggest that a maximum of 68% (24 MMT) of plastic waste could be diverted from landfills by scaling up existing commercial recycling technologies. Based on the current technological landscape, reaching near-zero waste is only possible if processes that are operating at pilot and laboratory scales can be effectively scaled and coupled with improved sorting infrastructure. Through these scenarios with increased recycling, the availability of postconsumer resin stocks could increase by 22–43 MMT.
Analysis as a Key Guiding Tool for Waste Carbon Utilization
Over a billion metric tons of waste and biomass are projected to be available in a future mature market in the United States. These resources represent an opportunity to decouple chemical and polymer production from conventional fossil fuel feedstocks, but such a broad solution space can also make for challenging decision-making. This talk will provide researchers with an introduction to key analysis techniques such as techno-economic analysis, life cycle assessment, and material flow analysis: how they are conducted and how they can be used to benchmark the costs, environmental impacts, and circularity of new innovations as well as to identify opportunities for prioritization and optimization. Using a series of examples related to plastic recycling and chemical manufacturing, we will explore how analysis can guide where and how to leverage waste carbon in supply chains towards a future circular economy.
Enhancing supply resilience for critical materials: case study of gallium supply in the United States
Accelerating energy technology development will increase demand for critical raw materials, such as gallium, that enable clean energy technologies. Processing of gallium is concentrated in mainland China (98 % of global production in 2023), resulting in high supply risks for importing countries. To investigate pathways for more resilient supply, we develop a material flow analysis and apply it to the United States, showing the impacts of future domestic primary raw material production and end-of-life (EoL) product recycling on reducing import reliance of raw gallium metal. We complement this analysis with a techno-economic assessment of North American gallium production costs under various demand growth scenarios. Our results indicate that sufficient domestic feedstocks exist to meet U.S. demand under most scenarios by 2035, while EoL recycling can supply up to 50 % under a low-demand growth scenario. Domestic primary production shows significant cost advantages over gallium recycling.
Environmental and socio-economic Pareto-front trade-off analysis of U.S. PET packaging material in a circular economy
Various recycling technologies are emerging to implement circular economy in plasticssupply chain systems. However, the environmental and socio-economic trade-offs of in circular economy are not well understood at a systems level. Particularly, quantifying these trade-offs as a function of end-of-life (EOL) management decisions, including transition of recycling technologies, systems level metrics such as circularity, recycled content, and the need for fossil-derived plastics are not well understood. Here, the present study addressed these research gaps by applying a systems analysis modeling approach that utilizes material flow analysis, life cycle assessment, socioeconomic data, and system optimization techniques for polyethylene terephthalate (PET) packaging supply chains in the United States. Pareto-front trade-offs between conflicting environmental and socio-economic impacts as well as those between socioeconomic impacts and circularity were explored using the epsilon constraint method. The Pareto-front trade-off analysis revealed the transition of EOL management strategies for PET packaging systems, including changes in selection of recycling technologies, to aid decision making process by quantifying studied system metrics. Transitioning from environmentally optimal to socio-economically optimal systems led to increased employment (by 17%), wages (by 26%), and revenues (by 6%) but also led to increased global warming potential (GWP; by 65%), energy consumption (by 59%), and reliance on fossil PET in the system (by 78%). Finally, the results show that there is not a unique set of recycling technologies to achieve a sustainable circular economy of PET packaging system, instead it depends on the decision maker’s objectives and targeted metrics of the system.
PET and polyolefin plastics supply chains in Michigan: present and future systems analysis of environmental and socio-economic impacts
Many actions are underway at global, national, and local levels to increase plastics circularity. However, studies evaluating the environmental and socio-economic impacts of such a transition are lacking at regional levels in the United States. In this work, the existing polyethylene terephthalate and polyolefin plastics supply chains in Michigan were compared to a potential future (‘NextCycle’) scenario that looks at increasing Michigan’s overall recycling rate to 45%. Material flow analysis data was combined with environmental and socio-economic metrics to evaluate the sustainability of these supply chains for the modeled scenarios. Overall, the NextCycle scenario for these supply chains achieved a net 14% and 34% savings of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and energy impacts, when compared with their respective baseline values. Additionally, the NextCycle scenario showed a net gain in employment and wages, however, it showed a net loss of revenue generation outside of Michigan due to the avoided use of virgin resins in Michigan.
A framework and tool for designing cost-effective, resilient, and circular net-zero supply chains under uncertainty with an application to multilayer plastic films
While 55% of Fortune 500 companies have committed to achieving net-zero emissions and/or zero-waste operations by 2035, only 2% are currently on track, revealing a critical gap between ambition and action. Designing supply chains that reduce both emissions and waste is a complex non-intuitive, multi-objective challenge, compounded by the high costs of new technologies and the need for resilient, profitable solutions. This paper aims to address this challenge by presenting a generic framework and multi-objective optimization formulation for designing cost-effective, circular, and resilient supply chains under uncertainty, implemented through a user-friendly decision-support tool with intuitive data visualization capabilities, enabling communication of results to both technical and non-technical stakeholders. We demonstrate the application of this framework in the context of multilayer plastic films (barrier films), which are widely used in food packaging and composite materials. The model quantifies trade-offs across three objectives: minimizing global warming potential, maximizing circularity, and minimizing cost. A key contribution of this work is the explicit modeling of technological resilience, the ability of supply chains to maintain function under disruption. In the cost-minimization case, the resilience constraint makes the design approximately three times more expensive in the short-term metric, but shifts the system from relying on a single recovery pathway to a portfolio of four recovery pathways, improving the robustness of the optimization solution under uncertainty. Lastly, we introduce TranZero, a decision-support tool that integrates material flow analysis, hotspot identification, and optimization-based scenario planning to support net-zero and circularity decisions.
Circular economy pathways for decarbonizing aluminum and steel automotive body sheet components in the United States
Decarbonizing vehicle production is essential to reducing automotive sector emissions. This study quantifies greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from aluminum and steel auto-body sheet components produced in the US. It evaluates the effectiveness of circular economy (CE) strategies (greater closed-loop recycling of pre-consumer scrap, post-consumer scrap, and increased manufacturing yields) to reduce supply chain emissions across different process technology and electricity grid decarbonization pathways. We combine dynamic material flow analysis (2025–2050) with cradle-to-gate life-cycle modeling to assess production emissions and the potential reductions associated with the CE strategies under frozen, moderate, and aggressive technology and grid decarbonization scenarios. Current emissions intensities are estimated at approximately 12.3 kg.CO₂eq/kg of aluminum and 4.3 kg.CO₂eq/kg of steel sheet embedded in the vehicle. Under the frozen decarbonization scenario and current levels of circularity, annual emissions attributable to US aluminum and steel auto-body sheet supply chains could rise by 54 % and 18 % respectively by 2050. Rapid deployment of the CE strategies can cut these annual emissions in 2050 by 52 % for aluminum and 44 % for steel. However, scrap quality constraints lead to saturation points, limiting these benefits unless addressed. Aggressive deployment of low-carbon production technologies and a low-carbon grid reduces the relative benefit of implementing the CE strategies; however, even under the aggressive technology and grid decarbonization scenario, the CE strategies reduce annual emissions by a further 23 %-54 % by 2050. These findings highlight the urgent need to integrate CE strategies into the sheet metal supply chain to support decarbonization efforts and help meet climate targets.
Mapping the end-of-life of chemicals for circular economy opportunities
Material flow analysis of chemicals in the United States highlights low recycling rates, substantial climate change and human health impacts, and the potential for a circular economy to reduce waste and drive sustainability in the chemical industry.
Supply Chain Energy and Greenhouse Gas Analysis Using the Materials Flows Through Industry (MFI) Tool: Examination of Alternative Technology Scenarios for the U.S. Chemical Sector
Chemical manufacturing is a large and diverse sector of the U.S. economy, with products, fuels, and a wide assortment of materials used daily by both the public and businesses. Currently, several of the largest volume chemicals produced in the United States rely on fossil fuels as a feedstock, energy source, or both. The list of chemicals includes steam cracking products such as ethylene, propylene, benzene, and xylenes as well as products such as ammonia and methanol. The focus for this work is on platform chemicals that are both produced in the largest volume and have a high potential for subsequent processing into more specialized products. In this study, we explore several new pathways that reduce the overall energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for each product. These pathways include energy efficiency measures applied to existing production methods, the use of bio‐based fuels and/or feedstocks as new production methods, and electrification of high‐energy‐input stages within current production methods. Scenarios for energy demand and GHG reduction were conducted with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Materials Flows through Industry tool. Projections of the energy demand and GHG emissions in 2030 and 2050 are included, using grid composition projections from the NREL ReEDS model. The alternative scenarios selected showcase the effect of realistic changes the industry could make, focusing on technologies with a high level of technical readiness.
Thermal/Pyrolysis Gas Flow Analysis of Carbon Phenolic Material
Provided in this study are predicted in-depth temperature and pyrolysis gas pressure distributions for carbon phenolic materials that are externally heated with a laser source. Governing equations, numerical techniques and comparisons to measured temperature data are also presented. Surface thermochemical conditions were determined using the Aerotherm Chemical Equilibrium (ACE) program. Surface heating simulation used facility calibrated radiative and convective flux levels. Temperatures and pyrolysis gas pressures are predicted using an upgraded form of the SINDA/CMA program that was developed by NASA during the Solid Propulsion Integrity Program (SPIP). Multispecie mass balance, tracking of condensable vapors, high heat rate kinetics, real gas compressibility and reduced mixture viscosity's have been added to the algorithm. In general, surface and in-depth temperature comparisons are very good. Specie partial pressures calculations show that a saturated water-vapor mixture is the main contributor to peak in-depth total pressure. Further, for most of the cases studied, the water-vapor mixture is driven near the critical point and is believed to significantly increase the local heat capacity of the composite material. This phenomenon if not accounted for in analysis models may lead to an over prediction in temperature response in charring regions of the material.
Image-Processing Program
IMAGEP manipulates digital image data to effect various processing, analysis, and enhancement functions. It is keyboard-driven program organized into nine subroutines. Within subroutines are sub-subroutines also selected via keyboard. Algorithm has possible scientific, industrial, and biomedical applications in study of flows in materials, analysis of steels and ores, and pathology, respectively.
Unpacking Modeling Analysis for the Circular Economy
This session will cover: (1) How models simulate material recovery, recycling, product life cycles and waste management. (2) Using life cycle analysis (LCA) to measure environmental impacts across product life cycles and guide decision-making. (3) Optimizing resource use, reducing energy consumption and minimizing waste in recycling systems. (4) Evaluating EPR and other interventions through scenario analysis to make informed decisions.
Autoclave processing for composite material fabrication. 1: An analysis of resin flows and fiber compactions for thin laminate
High quality long fiber reinforced composites, such as those used in aerospace and industrial applications, are commonly processed in autoclaves. An adequate resin flow model for the entire system (laminate/bleeder/breather), which provides a description of the time-dependent laminate consolidation process, is useful in predicting the loss of resin, heat transfer characteristics, fiber volume fraction and part dimension, etc., under a specified set of processing conditions. This could be accomplished by properly analyzing the flow patterns and pressure profiles inside the laminate during processing. A newly formulated resin flow model for composite prepreg lamination process is reported. This model considers viscous resin flows in both directions perpendicular and parallel to the composite plane. In the horizontal direction, a squeezing flow between two nonporous parallel plates is analyzed, while in the vertical direction, a poiseuille type pressure flow through porous media is assumed. Proper force and mass balances have been made and solved for the whole system. The effects of fiber-fiber interactions during lamination are included as well. The unique features of this analysis are: (1) the pressure gradient inside the laminate is assumed to be generated from squeezing action between two adjacent approaching fiber layers, and (2) the behavior of fiber bundles is simulated by a Finitely Extendable Nonlinear Elastic (FENE) spring.
Experimental techniques of studying pyrolysis of high polymers subjected to rapid heating
Pyrolysis of high polymers subjected to rapid heating - mass loss, differential thermal analysis, and material gas flow
The Trend of Future Gas Turbine Technology
Turbomachinery system component research to advance the technology of aviation turbofan and turbojet engines is discussed. Areas of research include compressors, turbines, internal flow analysis, combustion, fuels, materials, structures, bearings, seals, lubrication, dynamics and controls, and instrumentation. A review of the research directions being taken in these areas and the steady advances being made provides a reasonable glimpse at gas turbine technology of the future.
The trend of future gas turbine technology
Future gas turbine technology will be based on contributions to the technology base being made today. At the NASA Lewis Research Center in Cleveland, OH, research is being conducted on turbomachinery system components and in a number of associated disciplines to advance the technology of aviation turbofan and torbojet engines. Areas of research include compressors, turbines, internal flow analysis, combustion, fuels, materials, structures, bearings, seals, lubrication, dynamics and controls, and instrumentation. A review of the research directions being taken in these areas and the steady advances being made provides a reasonable glimpse at gas turbine technology of the future.
Analysis of Flow From Arc-Jet Spectra
Materials testing is carried out at the JSC Atmospheric Reentry Materials and Structures Facility. A flow diagnostics program is under development to characterize the energy distribution in arc-jet flows used to simulate atmospheric entry. Heat transfer to materials depends on flow properties which includes the composition of and energy distribution among the atoms, ions, molecules, and molecular ions which make up the flow. This project involves analysis of shock layer characteristics from the radiation emitted and experimentally collected from near the front of the shock to near the surface of the material. The analysis has yielded information on relative populations of neutral molecules and molecular ions within the layer. In determining non-equilibrium temperatures within the layer, some insight into the spectral constants used to compute radiative emission has been gained.