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Paths to circularity for plastics in the United States
In 2019, the United States consumed over 57 million metric tons (MMT) of plastic with less than 7% recovered for reuse. This study provides an updated material flow analysis at national and regional scales for all durable and single-use plastics in the United States. From this material flow analysis, we develop a series of alternative future national plastic flow scenarios that envision a scale-up of recycling technologies, incorporating technical limitations and sorting infrastructure constraints. The results suggest that a maximum of 68% (24 MMT) of plastic waste could be diverted from landfills by scaling up existing commercial recycling technologies. Based on the current technological landscape, reaching near-zero waste is only possible if processes that are operating at pilot and laboratory scales can be effectively scaled and coupled with improved sorting infrastructure. Through these scenarios with increased recycling, the availability of postconsumer resin stocks could increase by 22–43 MMT.
Analysis as a Key Guiding Tool for Waste Carbon Utilization
Over a billion metric tons of waste and biomass are projected to be available in a future mature market in the United States. These resources represent an opportunity to decouple chemical and polymer production from conventional fossil fuel feedstocks, but such a broad solution space can also make for challenging decision-making. This talk will provide researchers with an introduction to key analysis techniques such as techno-economic analysis, life cycle assessment, and material flow analysis: how they are conducted and how they can be used to benchmark the costs, environmental impacts, and circularity of new innovations as well as to identify opportunities for prioritization and optimization. Using a series of examples related to plastic recycling and chemical manufacturing, we will explore how analysis can guide where and how to leverage waste carbon in supply chains towards a future circular economy.
Enhancing supply resilience for critical materials: case study of gallium supply in the United States
Accelerating energy technology development will increase demand for critical raw materials, such as gallium, that enable clean energy technologies. Processing of gallium is concentrated in mainland China (98 % of global production in 2023), resulting in high supply risks for importing countries. To investigate pathways for more resilient supply, we develop a material flow analysis and apply it to the United States, showing the impacts of future domestic primary raw material production and end-of-life (EoL) product recycling on reducing import reliance of raw gallium metal. We complement this analysis with a techno-economic assessment of North American gallium production costs under various demand growth scenarios. Our results indicate that sufficient domestic feedstocks exist to meet U.S. demand under most scenarios by 2035, while EoL recycling can supply up to 50 % under a low-demand growth scenario. Domestic primary production shows significant cost advantages over gallium recycling.
Environmental and socio-economic Pareto-front trade-off analysis of U.S. PET packaging material in a circular economy
Various recycling technologies are emerging to implement circular economy in plasticssupply chain systems. However, the environmental and socio-economic trade-offs of in circular economy are not well understood at a systems level. Particularly, quantifying these trade-offs as a function of end-of-life (EOL) management decisions, including transition of recycling technologies, systems level metrics such as circularity, recycled content, and the need for fossil-derived plastics are not well understood. Here, the present study addressed these research gaps by applying a systems analysis modeling approach that utilizes material flow analysis, life cycle assessment, socioeconomic data, and system optimization techniques for polyethylene terephthalate (PET) packaging supply chains in the United States. Pareto-front trade-offs between conflicting environmental and socio-economic impacts as well as those between socioeconomic impacts and circularity were explored using the epsilon constraint method. The Pareto-front trade-off analysis revealed the transition of EOL management strategies for PET packaging systems, including changes in selection of recycling technologies, to aid decision making process by quantifying studied system metrics. Transitioning from environmentally optimal to socio-economically optimal systems led to increased employment (by 17%), wages (by 26%), and revenues (by 6%) but also led to increased global warming potential (GWP; by 65%), energy consumption (by 59%), and reliance on fossil PET in the system (by 78%). Finally, the results show that there is not a unique set of recycling technologies to achieve a sustainable circular economy of PET packaging system, instead it depends on the decision maker’s objectives and targeted metrics of the system.
PET and polyolefin plastics supply chains in Michigan: present and future systems analysis of environmental and socio-economic impacts
Many actions are underway at global, national, and local levels to increase plastics circularity. However, studies evaluating the environmental and socio-economic impacts of such a transition are lacking at regional levels in the United States. In this work, the existing polyethylene terephthalate and polyolefin plastics supply chains in Michigan were compared to a potential future (‘NextCycle’) scenario that looks at increasing Michigan’s overall recycling rate to 45%. Material flow analysis data was combined with environmental and socio-economic metrics to evaluate the sustainability of these supply chains for the modeled scenarios. Overall, the NextCycle scenario for these supply chains achieved a net 14% and 34% savings of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and energy impacts, when compared with their respective baseline values. Additionally, the NextCycle scenario showed a net gain in employment and wages, however, it showed a net loss of revenue generation outside of Michigan due to the avoided use of virgin resins in Michigan.
A framework and tool for designing cost-effective, resilient, and circular net-zero supply chains under uncertainty with an application to multilayer plastic films
While 55% of Fortune 500 companies have committed to achieving net-zero emissions and/or zero-waste operations by 2035, only 2% are currently on track, revealing a critical gap between ambition and action. Designing supply chains that reduce both emissions and waste is a complex non-intuitive, multi-objective challenge, compounded by the high costs of new technologies and the need for resilient, profitable solutions. This paper aims to address this challenge by presenting a generic framework and multi-objective optimization formulation for designing cost-effective, circular, and resilient supply chains under uncertainty, implemented through a user-friendly decision-support tool with intuitive data visualization capabilities, enabling communication of results to both technical and non-technical stakeholders. We demonstrate the application of this framework in the context of multilayer plastic films (barrier films), which are widely used in food packaging and composite materials. The model quantifies trade-offs across three objectives: minimizing global warming potential, maximizing circularity, and minimizing cost. A key contribution of this work is the explicit modeling of technological resilience, the ability of supply chains to maintain function under disruption. In the cost-minimization case, the resilience constraint makes the design approximately three times more expensive in the short-term metric, but shifts the system from relying on a single recovery pathway to a portfolio of four recovery pathways, improving the robustness of the optimization solution under uncertainty. Lastly, we introduce TranZero, a decision-support tool that integrates material flow analysis, hotspot identification, and optimization-based scenario planning to support net-zero and circularity decisions.
Circular economy pathways for decarbonizing aluminum and steel automotive body sheet components in the United States
Decarbonizing vehicle production is essential to reducing automotive sector emissions. This study quantifies greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from aluminum and steel auto-body sheet components produced in the US. It evaluates the effectiveness of circular economy (CE) strategies (greater closed-loop recycling of pre-consumer scrap, post-consumer scrap, and increased manufacturing yields) to reduce supply chain emissions across different process technology and electricity grid decarbonization pathways. We combine dynamic material flow analysis (2025–2050) with cradle-to-gate life-cycle modeling to assess production emissions and the potential reductions associated with the CE strategies under frozen, moderate, and aggressive technology and grid decarbonization scenarios. Current emissions intensities are estimated at approximately 12.3 kg.CO₂eq/kg of aluminum and 4.3 kg.CO₂eq/kg of steel sheet embedded in the vehicle. Under the frozen decarbonization scenario and current levels of circularity, annual emissions attributable to US aluminum and steel auto-body sheet supply chains could rise by 54 % and 18 % respectively by 2050. Rapid deployment of the CE strategies can cut these annual emissions in 2050 by 52 % for aluminum and 44 % for steel. However, scrap quality constraints lead to saturation points, limiting these benefits unless addressed. Aggressive deployment of low-carbon production technologies and a low-carbon grid reduces the relative benefit of implementing the CE strategies; however, even under the aggressive technology and grid decarbonization scenario, the CE strategies reduce annual emissions by a further 23 %-54 % by 2050. These findings highlight the urgent need to integrate CE strategies into the sheet metal supply chain to support decarbonization efforts and help meet climate targets.
Mapping the end-of-life of chemicals for circular economy opportunities
Material flow analysis of chemicals in the United States highlights low recycling rates, substantial climate change and human health impacts, and the potential for a circular economy to reduce waste and drive sustainability in the chemical industry.
Supply Chain Energy and Greenhouse Gas Analysis Using the Materials Flows Through Industry (MFI) Tool: Examination of Alternative Technology Scenarios for the U.S. Chemical Sector
Chemical manufacturing is a large and diverse sector of the U.S. economy, with products, fuels, and a wide assortment of materials used daily by both the public and businesses. Currently, several of the largest volume chemicals produced in the United States rely on fossil fuels as a feedstock, energy source, or both. The list of chemicals includes steam cracking products such as ethylene, propylene, benzene, and xylenes as well as products such as ammonia and methanol. The focus for this work is on platform chemicals that are both produced in the largest volume and have a high potential for subsequent processing into more specialized products. In this study, we explore several new pathways that reduce the overall energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for each product. These pathways include energy efficiency measures applied to existing production methods, the use of bio‐based fuels and/or feedstocks as new production methods, and electrification of high‐energy‐input stages within current production methods. Scenarios for energy demand and GHG reduction were conducted with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Materials Flows through Industry tool. Projections of the energy demand and GHG emissions in 2030 and 2050 are included, using grid composition projections from the NREL ReEDS model. The alternative scenarios selected showcase the effect of realistic changes the industry could make, focusing on technologies with a high level of technical readiness.
Unpacking Modeling Analysis for the Circular Economy
This session will cover: (1) How models simulate material recovery, recycling, product life cycles and waste management. (2) Using life cycle analysis (LCA) to measure environmental impacts across product life cycles and guide decision-making. (3) Optimizing resource use, reducing energy consumption and minimizing waste in recycling systems. (4) Evaluating EPR and other interventions through scenario analysis to make informed decisions.
Are the U.S. Biorefineries Over the Hurdle of 2000 Ton Daily Throughput Yet?
The efficient utilization of lignocellulosic biomass for biofuel and biochemical production is hindered by material handling issues such as clogging and segregation among other challenges. Preprocessing methods such as drying, screening, and milling have improved conversion yield but have not sufficiently enhanced flowability, especially herbaceous biomass. The poor flowability of herbaceous biomass is rooted in some particle attributes that remain less altered by those methods, e.g., irregular particle shape, high roughness, and high compressibility, making it hard to scale up throughput to a key benchmark for a biorefinery – 2000 ton per day. Applying additional preprocessing methods like pelletization and torrefaction to drastically change those particle attributes can improve flow and handling but has not been comprehensively verified through test. The flowability of herbaceous biomass feedstock formats generated by three different preprocessing methods was recently assessed at Idaho National Laboratory’s Biomass Feedstock National User Facility: first, loose particles size reduced from as-received materials; second, pellets produced from an efficient densification process; and third, powders milled from torrefied pellets. Benchmarking tests including static angle of repose, basic flow energy measured in a powder rheometer, and discharge flow in an adjustable hopper, were conducted to evaluate those feedstock formats. Beyond the capacity of existing experimental apparatuses, a digital engineering approach involving flow simulations and AI models were used to identity the material attributes and processing parameters that have dominant influences on flow throughput. Techno-economic analysis focusing on hopper flow as a typical material handling operation was conducted for those feedstock formats. Perspectives will be discussed on whether the 2000-ton daily throughput for a biorefinery is achievable at an acceptable cost by using any of the tested preprocessing methods.
Plastic Parallel Pathways Platform- 4P Model
The U.S. generates 42 million metric tons of plastic waste each year - the most of any country - of which less than 9% is recycled. This represents an estimated loss of $2.3 billion and 3.4 EJ embodied energy per year. Plastic use reduction, reuse and recycling are thus increasingly important, but making informed policy and research decisions within this space can be challenging given the diverse range of available solutions. Various recycling and waste management options are available for plastics, such as conversion into energy (incineration, pyrolysis, gasification), conversion to lower- or higher-grade plastics (mechanical recycling, chemical or enzymatic depolymerization processes, dissolution) or up-cycling to feedstock chemicals (photo/electro/catalytic methods, pyrolysis, gasification). While many previous publications have investigated a subset of these options, there is currently no modelling platform that can quantitatively assess and compare the economic and environmental impacts of all these different plastic management pathways and their respective products simultaneously. To directly compare the benefits and disadvantages of plastic-to-x technologies, we propose a novel analysis framework: the Plastic Parallel Pathways Platform (4P). 4P will model a systems analysis framework for capturing plastic material flows processed via different waste management scenarios. The total economic cost and greenhouse gas emissions (as well as additional economic, energetic, and environmental metrics indicators) of a given scenario will be calculated enabling comparison to other scenarios, thereby informing decisions on plastic recycling pathways.
Exploring the Feasibility of INCONEL® ALLOY 740H® for Power Plant Headers: Integrating Machine Learning with Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD)
This keynote presentation explores the behavior of headers—essential components of pipeline systems—using ANSYS simulation software and machine learning techniques. The study aims to predict the thermal and mechanical performance of headers under diverse conditions through both steady-state and transient simulations. We investigate critical parameters such as heat transfer coefficient, fluid velocity, and temperature to optimize header design. Conducted as part of a DOE project led by NCAT in collaboration with UNC Charlotte, this research encompasses multiple key topics. The initial section focuses on the behavior of header systems under steady-state conditions using ANSYS simulation. It underscores the importance of headers in industrial infrastructure, especially in the energy sector, and examines the implications of material selection and flow direction on heat transfer dynamics. Methodologically, we employ Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) analysis through ANSYS, detailing the development of models, material properties, geometry specifications, boundary conditions, and meshing strategies. Our simulations explore various operational parameters, including temperature and mass flow rates, crucial for predicting heat transfer coefficients and enhancing header design. Results from the study include parametric investigations into mesh sensitivity, viscosity model evaluations, and the effects of heat transfer locations, all validated against theoretical calculations. We conclude with insights on mesh optimization, the suitability of viscosity models, and recommendations for future research aimed at improving header system efficiency and sustainability in industrial applications.
Particle Image Velocimetry and Total Temperature Characterization of Arc-Heated Mach 4.5 Free Jet
Particle image velocimetry (PIV) measurements were conducted in the Arc-Heated Combustion Tunnel (ACT-II) on a high-enthalpy Mach 4.5 nozzle flow. The primary motivation for the current work is to establish the feasibility of PIV as a high-quality flow diagnostic technique in hypersonic arc-heated flows and produce a high-resolution hypersonic nozzle flow characterization, including nozzle free jet shear layer velocity profiles. Due to the uncertain nature of the gas composition in the flowfield of interest, PIV measurements of a supersonic wedge flow were used to couple the flow velocities to the oblique shock relations. This enabled a PIV-derived total temperature calculation that does not require a priori assumptions of the exact gas composition. A PIV expansion module was developed for this study, and proper seed sizing and material were selected for the present flow. An analysis of the seed particle response from the PIV measurements provided an initial validation of the seed performance while revealing potential issues with consistent seed sizing. These measurements and derived conditions represent a means of acquiring high-resolution velocimetry and temperature datasets that consider uncertainties in the experimental generation of hypersonic high-enthalpy flows.
Effect of micro-fin tube geometry parameters on evaporator material savings
A Performance Evaluation Criteria (PEC) analysis is presented that explores the influence of the micro-fin tube geometry on the required material volume. The analysis was done using a local flow boiling model, which can quantify the effect of fin parameters and the tube diameter. The PEC was done while requiring that the compared surfaces satisfy the same heat duty and pressure drop. The following tube parameters and ranges were explored: tube diameter (3 mm ≤ D o ≤ 6 mm), fin base thickness (0.12 mm ≤ t bf ≤ 0.29 mm), helix angle (6° ≤ α ≤ 30°), fin apex angle (11° ≤ β ≤ 22°), total number of fins (43 ≤ n f ≤ 70), and the fin height (0.11 mm ≤ e ≤ 0.3 mm). The tube that provided the smallest material requirements within the examined parameter ranges had: D o = 3 mm, t bf = 0.12 mm, α = 6°, β = 11°, n f = 43, and e = 0.3 mm. In general, small D o and t bf and large n f and e provided the best performance and work to minimize the required material volume to provide a given heat duty and pressure drop. The helix and the fin-tip apex angles were found to have very little influence on the performance for the examined range of parameters and angles associated with the lowest production cost should be chosen.
Image registration for accurate electrode deformation analysis in operando microscopy of battery materials
Operando imaging techniques have become increasingly valuable in both battery research and manufacturing. However, the reliability of these methods can be compromised by instabilities in the imaging setup and operando cells, particularly when utilizing high-resolution imaging systems. The acquired imaging data often include features arising from both undesirable system vibrations and drift, as well as the scientifically relevant deformations occurring in the battery sample during cell operation. For meaningful analysis, it is crucial to distinguish and separately evaluate these two factors. To address these challenges, we employ a suite of advanced image-processing techniques. These include fast Fourier transform analysis in the frequency domain, power spectrum-based assessments for image quality, as well as rigid and non-rigid image-registration methods. These techniques allow us to identify and exclude blurred images, correct for displacements caused by motor vibrations and sample holder drift and, thus, prevent unwanted image artifacts from affecting subsequent analyses and interpretations. Additionally, we apply optical flow analysis to track the dynamic deformation of battery electrode materials during electrochemical cycling. This enables us to observe and quantify the evolving mechanical responses of the electrodes, offering deeper insights into battery degradation. Together, these methods ensure more accurate image analysis and enhance our understanding of the chemomechanical interplay in battery performance and longevity.
Thermal oxidation of nuclear graphite and pyrolytic carbon coatings
The oxidation of pyrolytic carbon (PyC) deposited via fluidized bed chemical vapor deposition was characterized and compared with that of standard nuclear-grade graphite. The materials were heated at 700 to 1000 °C in a thermogravimetric analysis system under 20% v/v O 2 flow, allowing for direct comparison of dynamic oxidative mass change in each material. Further, three different PyC samples fabricated under different conditions exhibited variation in total mass loss and mass loss rate, varying by as much as 709 mg/cm 2 in total mass loss and 14.2 (mg/cm 2 )/min in mass loss rate at a single temperature. These variations highlight the correlation between PyC microstructure/defect density and oxidation susceptibility. Additionally, changes in the microstructure and composition between PyC and graphite were characterized via scanning electron microscopy and correlated to the mass loss results. The results of this work have implications toward the safety of tristructural isotropic (TRISO) and other coated particle fuels, especially under off-normal conditions, given the limited information that exists about the oxidation behavior of PyC.