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Breaking Down the Computational Barriers to Real-Time Urban Flood Forecasting

Flooding impacts are on the rise globally, and concentrated in urban areas. Currently, there are no operational systems to forecast flooding at spatial resolutions that can facilitate emergency preparedness and response actions mitigating flood impacts. We present a framework for real-time flood modeling and uncertainty quantification that combines the physics of fluid motion with advances in probabilistic methods. The framework overcomes the prohibitive computational demands of high-fidelity modeling in real-time by using a probabilistic learning method relying on surrogate models that are trained prior to a flood event. This shifts the overwhelming burden of computation to the trivial problem of data storage, and enables forecasting of both flood hazard and its uncertainty at scales that are vital for time-critical decision-making before and during extreme events. The framework has the potential to improve flood prediction and analysis and can be extended to other hazard assessments requiring intense high-fidelity computations in real-time.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Atmospheric Data-Driven Visualization of Air Quality Variation in Megacities

The growth and spread of human settlements and increasing urban density are important processes in global change. Urbanization has accelerated with population growth, and more densely populated urban areas have major effects on the local and regional environments. Air quality in megacities has been a concern for decades. Data for anthropogenic emissions, pollutants, and particulate matter can inform research on the interactions between urban landscapes and the atmosphere, assist policy makers in developing sustainable, healthy environments, and inform the general public. To better assist researchers, students, the public, and policymakers in understanding the annual and seasonal variation of aerosol and gas intensity in megacities, the Science Outreach Team at NASA Langley Research Center’s Atmospheric Science Data Center (ASDC) Distributed Active Archive Center (DAAC) demonstrate data products at the ASDC that can be used to visualize these parameters. The presentation uses data from the ASDC-supported NASA missions Measurements Of Pollution In The Troposphere (MOPITT), Cloud-Aerosol and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO), Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES), and Multi-angle Imaging Spectro Radiometer (MISR)

Air Quality↗

How Cities Breathe: Ground-Referenced, Airborne Hyperspectral Imaging Precursor Measurements To Space-Based Monitoring

Methane's (CH4) large global warming potential (Shindell et al., 2012) and likely increasing future emissions due to global warming feedbacks emphasize its importance to anthropogenic greenhouse warming (IPCC, 2007). Furthermore, CH4 regulation has far greater near-term climate change mitigation potential versus carbon dioxide CO2, the other major anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas (GHG) (Shindell et al., 2009). Uncertainties in CH4 budgets arise from the poor state of knowledge of CH4 sources - in part from a lack of sufficiently accurate assessments of the temporal and spatial emissions and controlling factors of highly variable anthropogenic and natural CH4 surface fluxes (IPCC, 2007) and the lack of global-scale (satellite) data at sufficiently high spatial resolution to resolve sources. Many important methane (and other trace gases) sources arise from urban and mega-urban landscapes where anthropogenic activities are centered - most of humanity lives in urban areas. Studying these complex landscape tapestries is challenged by a wide and varied range of activities at small spatial scale, and difficulty in obtaining up-to-date landuse data in the developed world - a key desire of policy makers towards development of effective regulations. In the developing world, challenges are multiplied with additional political access challenges. As high spatial resolution satellite and airborne data has become available, activity mapping applications have blossomed - i.e., Google maps; however, tap a minute fraction of remote sensing capabilities due to limited (three band) spectral information. Next generation approaches that incorporate high spatial resolution hyperspectral and ultraspectral data will allow detangling of the highly heterogeneous usage megacity patterns by providing diagnostic identification of chemical composition from solids (refs) to gases (refs). To properly enable these next generation technologies for megacity include atmospheric radiative transfer modeling the complex and often aerosol laden, humid, urban microclimates, atmospheric transport and profile monitoring, spatial resolution, temporal cycles (diurnal and seasonal which involve interactions with the surrounding environment diurnal and seasonal cycles) and representative measurement approaches given traffic realities. Promising approaches incorporate contemporaneous airborne remote sensing and in situ measurements, nocturnal surface surveys, with ground station measurement

Leifer, Ira↗

The Conundrum of Impacts of Climate Change on Urbanization and the Urban Heat Island Effect

The twenty-first century is the first urban century according to the United Nations Development Program. The focus on cities reflects awareness of the growing percentage of the world's population that lives in urban areas. In 2000, approximately 3 billion people representing about 40% of the global population resided in urban areas. The United Nations estimates that by 2025, 60% of the world s population will live in urban areas. As a consequence, the number of megacities (those cities with populations of 10 million inhabitants or more) will increase by 100 by 2025. Thus, there is a critical need to understand the spatial growth of urban areas and what the impacts are on the environment. Moreover, there is a critical need to assess how under global climate change, cities will affect the local, regional, and even global climate. As urban areas increase in size, it is anticipated there will be a concomitant growth of the Urban Heat Island effect (UHI), and the attributes that are related to its spatial and temporal dynamics. Therefore, how climate change, including the dynamics of the UHI, will affect the urban environment, must be explored to help mitigate potential impacts on the environment (e.g., air quality, heat stress, vectorborne disease) and on human health and well being, to develop adaptation schemes to cope with these impacts.

Quattrochi, Dale A.↗

Long-term Satellite Observations of Asian Dust Storm: Source, Pathway, and Interannual Variability

Among the many components that contribute to air pollution, airborne mineral dust plays an important role due to its biogeochemical impact on the ecosystem and its radiative-forcing effect on the climate system. In East Asia, dust storms frequently accompany the cold and dry air masses that occur as part of springtime cold front systems. Outbreaks of Asian dust storms occur often in the arid and semi-arid areas of northwestern China -about 1.6x10(exp 6) square kilometers including the Gobi and Taklimakan deserts- with continuous expanding of spatial coverage. These airborne dust particles, originating in desert areas far from polluted regions, interact with anthropogenic sulfate and soot aerosols emitted from Chinese megacities during their transport over the mainland. Adding the intricate effects of clouds and marine aerosols, dust particles reaching the marine environment can have drastically different properties than those from their sources. Furthermore, these aerosols, once generated over the source regions, can be transported out of the boundary layer into the free troposphere and can travel thousands of kilometers across the Pacific into the United States and beyond. In this paper, we will demonstrate the capability of a new satellite algorithm to retrieve aerosol properties (e.g., optical thickness, single scattering albedo) over bright-reflecting surfaces such as urban areas and deserts. Such retrievals have been difficult to perform using previously available algorithms that use wavelengths from the mid-visible to the near IR because they have trouble separating the aerosol signal from the contribution due to the bright surface reflectance. This new algorithm, called Deep Blue, utilizes blue-wavelength measurements from instruments such as SeaWiFS and MODIS to infer the properties of aerosols, since the surface reflectance over land in the blue part of the spectrum is much lower than for longer wavelength channels. Reasonable agreements have been achieved between Deep Blue retrievals of aerosol optical thickness and those directly from AERONET sunphotometers over desert and semi-desert regions. New Deep Blue products will allow scientists to determine quantitatively the aerosol properties near sources using high spatial resolution measurements from SeaWiFS and MODIS-like instruments. Long-term satellite measurements (1998 - 2007) from SeaWiFS will be utilized to investigate the interannual variability of source, pathway, and dust loading associated with the Asian dust storm outbreaks. In addition, monthly averaged aerosol optical thickness during the springtime from SeaWiFS will also be compared with the MODIS Deep Blue products.

Hsu, N. Christina↗

High Spatial Resolution Thermal Infrared Remote Sensing Data for Analysis of the Atlanta, Georgia, Urban Heat Island Effect and Its Impacts on the Environment

The twenty-first century is the first "urban century" according to the United Nations Development Program. The focus of cities reflects awareness of the growing percentage of the world's population that lives in urban areas. In environmental terms, cities are the original producers of many of the global problems related to waste disposal, air and water pollution, and associated environmental and ecological challenges. Expansion of cities, both in population and areal extent, is a relentless process. In 2000, approximately 3 billion people representing about 40% of the global population, resided in urban areas. Urban population will continue to rise substantially over the next several decades according to UN estimates, and most of this growth will Occur in developing countries. The UN estimates that by 2025, 60% of the world's population will live in urban areas. As a consequence, the number of"megacities" (those cities with populations of 10 million inhabitants or more) will increase by 100 by 2025. Thus, there is a critical need to understand urban areas and what their impacts are on environmental, ecological and hydrologic resources, as well as on the local, regional, and even global climate. One of the more egregious side effects of urbanization is the increase in surface and air temperatures that lead to deterioration in air quality. In the United States, under the more stringent air quality guidelines established by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in 1997, nearly 300 counties in 34 states will not meet these new air quality standards for ground level ozone. Mitigation of the urban heat island (UHI) effect is actively being evaluated as a possible way to reduce ground ozone levels in cities and assist states in improving air quality. Foremost in the analysis of how the UHI affects air quality and other environmental factors is the use of remote sensing technology and data to characterize urban land covers in sufficient detail to quantifiably measure the impact of increased urban heating on air quality. The urban landscape impacts surface thermal energy exchanges that determine development of the UHI. This paper will illustrate how we are using high spatial remote sensing data collected over the Atlanta, Georgia metropolitan area in conjunction with other geographic information, to perform a detailed urban land cover classification and to determine the contribution of these land covers to the urban heat island effect. Also, the spatial arrangement of the land covers and the impact on urban heating from these selected patterns of development are evaluated. Additionally, this paper will show how these data are being used as inputs to improve air quality modeling for Atlanta, including potential benefits from UHI mitigation.

Quattrochi, Dale A.↗

Accelerating TEMPO Air Quality Science Through STAQS

Soon after the launch of Tropospheric Emissions: Monitoring of Pollution (TEMPO) mission, NASA is supporting the Synergistic TEMPO Air Quality Science field study (STAQS) in summer 2023. This study’s main objective is to accelerate science with geostationary air quality observations from TEMPO to better understand its use in air pollution research and applications. Science objectives include, but are not limited to, TEMPO L2 product evaluation, the interpretation of the spatiotemporal evolution of TEMPO data during air quality events, assessment of anthropogenic emissions, contributions to chemical transport modeling, and environmental justice applications. These objectives can be accomplished through the integration of satellite data with systematically repeated high-resolution aircraft- and ground-based measurements in multiple urban environments. The primary urban cities considered include Los Angeles, New York City, and Chicago in June-August 2023. Measurements consist of airborne remote sensing observations of air quality constituents of nitrogen dioxide (NO2), formaldehyde (HCHO), ozone, and aerosols using the GeoCape Airborne Simulator and High-Spectral Resolution Lidar 2/Differential Absorption Lidar (HSRL2/DIAL) on the NASA JSC G-V aircraft, greenhouse gas observations from Airborne Visible InfraRed Imaging Spectrometer - Next Generation (AVIRIS-NG) and High Altitude Lidar Observatory (HALO) on the NASA LaRC G-III aircraft, and ground-based remote sensing and in situ observations of ozone, NO2, and HCHO from the Tropospheric Ozone Lidar Network (TOLNet), Pandora spectrometers, and ground-based monitoring networks. Key partnership studies providing in situ airborne observations include the NOAA Atmospheric Emissions and Reactions Observed from Megacities to Marine Areas (AEROMMA) field study on the NASA DC-8 in the same primary target areas as STAQS and Greater New York Oxidant, Tropospheric Halogens, and Aerosol Measurements and Modeling (GOTHAMM) field study on the NSF C-130 near New York City. This presentation will include a current status update of the STAQS mission and an overview of its measurement strategies and science objectives with the goal of promoting continued discussions for building and strengthening collaborations prior to the mission.

Laura Judd↗