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At least 19 records

Global Variability of Mesoscale Convective System

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) in the tropics produce extensive anvil clouds, which significantly affect the transfer of radiation. This study develops an objective method to identify MCSs and their anvils by combining data from three A-train satellite instruments: Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) for cloud-top size and coldness, Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) for rain area size and intensity, and CloudSat for horizontal and vertical dimensions of anvils. The authors distinguish three types of MCSs: small and large separated MCSs and connected MCSs. The latter are MCSs sharing a contiguous rain area. Mapping of the objectively identified MCSs shows patterns of MCSs that are consistent with previous studies of tropical convection, with separated MCSs dominant over Africa and the Amazon regions and connected MCSs favored over the warm pool of the Indian and west Pacific Oceans. By separating the anvil from the raining regions of MCSs, this study leads to quantitative global maps of anvil coverage. These maps are consistent with the MCS analysis, and they lay the foundation for estimating the global radiative effects of anvil clouds. CloudSat radar data show that the modal thickness of MCS anvils is about 4--5 km. Anvils are mostly confined to within 1.5--2 times the equivalent radii of the primary rain areas of the MCSs. Over the warm pool, they may extend out to about 5 times the rain area radii. The warm ocean MCSs tend to have thicker non-raining and lightly raining anvils near the edges of their actively raining regions, indicating that anvils are generated in and spread out from the primary raining regions of the MCSs. Thicker anvils are nearly absent over continental regions.

Yuan, J.↗

High Ice Water Content Associated with a Darwin, Austrailia, Mesoscale Convective System

A mesoscale convective complex that occurred during the 2014 Darwin, Australia, flight campaign is examined via a three-dimensional, numerical simulation. The focus of the study is to better understand the presence and development of High Ice Water Content (HIWC) that was observed in the actual storm. Although peak values of ice water content may occur early in the storm lifetime, large areas of high concentrations expand with time and persist even when the storm tops begin to warm. The storm canopy which contains HIWC, has low radar reflectivity factor and is fed by an ensemble of regenerating thermal plumes. Detection via weather radar of the aviation hazard associated HIWC is challenging due the low values of radar reflectivity factor.

Aviation hazards↗

Hydrometeor Transport and the Stratiform Water Budget in Amazonian Mesoscale Convective Systems

A significant portion of precipitation falls within the stratiform regions of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). These regions are formed from convective clouds that have either weakened and formed a horizontally stratified structure or have advected hydrometeors to form a trailing-stratiform region, with further precipitation growth promoted by in situ dynamical and microphysical processes. Green Ocean Amazon 2014/5 (GoAmazon2014/5) field campaign observations are used to quantify the stratiform water budget of six MCSs (three each from the wet and dry seasons) utilizing the framework from Leary and Houze, with an emphasis on the transfer of hydrometeors (C A ) from the convective to the stratiform regions. The storms were predominantly leading-line/trailing-stratiform MCSs, but two had embedded convection in the stratiform region, which can complicate water budget calculations. A pulse-like pattern with a mean interval of 21 min occurs in C A during each storm resulting from a lag between the initial convective updrafts and the subsequent hydrometeor transport and sedimentation in the stratiform region. Here, the peaks in C A were followed by peaks in hydrometeor growth associated with the mesoscale updraft (C mu ) in the stratiform region. Averaged over the six storms, the positive contributions of C A and C mu to the stratiform water budget were roughly equal, although storm-to-storm variations existed. Negative contributions from evaporation below cloud base in the mesoscale downdraft and detrainment from the stratiform region into the nonprecipitating anvil cloud and environment accounted for 53% and 21% of the sum of C A and C mu , respectively, resulting in a mean stratiform region precipitation efficiency of 26%.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Moist Potential Vorticity Model for Midlatitude Long-Lived Mesoscale Convective Systems over Land

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) bring large amounts of rainfall and strong wind gusts to the midlatitude land regions, with significant impacts on local weather and hydrologic cycle. However, weather and climate models face a huge challenge in accurately modeling the MCS life cycle and the associated precipitation, highlighting an urgent need for a better understanding of the underlying mechanisms of MCS initiation and propagation. From a theoretical perspective, a suitable model to capture the realistic properties of MCSs and isolate the bare-bones mechanisms for their initiation, intensification, and eastward propagation is still lacking. To simulate midlatitude MCSs over land, we develop a simple moist potential vorticity (PV) model that readily describes the interactions among PV perturbations, air moisture, and soil moisture. Multiple experiments with or without various environmental factors and external forcing are used to investigate their impacts on MCS dynamics and mesoscale circulation vertical structures. The result shows that mechanical forcing can induce lower-level updraft and cooling, providing favorable conditions for MCS initiation. A positive feedback among surface winds, evaporation rate, and air moisture similar to the wind-induced surface heat exchange over tropical ocean is found to support MCS intensification. Both background surface westerlies and vertical westerly wind shear are shown to provide favorable conditions for the eastward propagation of MCSs. Last, our result highlights the crucial role of stratiform heating in shaping mesoscale circulation response. In conclusion, the model should serve as a useful tool for understanding the fundamental mechanisms of MCS dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Mesoscale Convective Systems Dominate the Energetics of the South Asian Summer Monsoon Onset

The onset of the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) is featured as an abrupt increase of precipitation and atmospheric column-integrated moist static energy (MSE). Using convection permitting simulations, a novel cloud tracking technique, and an MSE budget, the relative roles of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) and non-MCS isolated deep convection in the SASM onset are studied. The analysis shows MCSs play a crucial role in the sudden increases of rainfall, diabatic MSE sources, and the subsequent enhanced export of column-integrated MSE during the onset. A “diabatic sources-energy export” plane analysis delineates the different roles of MCSs and non-MCS deep convection in the SASM onset. Although deep convection always leads to a net energy export, mesoscale organization of deep convection dominates the convection associated positive feedbacks that accelerate the energy cycle of the SASM onset. Sensitivity experiment shows that the results are insensitive to the model resolutions.

Chen, Xingchao↗

A Simple Lagrangian Parcel Model for the Initiation of Summer-time Mesoscale Convective Systems over the Central United States

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) account for more than 50% of summertime precipitation over the central United States and have a significant impact on local weather and hydrologic cycle. It is hypothesized that the inadequate treatment of MCSs is responsible for the long-standing warm and dry bias over the central United States in coarse-resolution general circulation model (GCM) simulations. In particular, a better understanding of MCS initiation is still lacking. Here a single-column Lagrangian parcel model is first developed to simulate the basic features of a rising parcel. This simple model demonstrates the collective effects of boundary layer moistening and dynamical lifting in triggering convective initiation and reproduces successfully its early afternoon peak with surface equivalent potential temperature as a controlling factor. It also predicts that convection is harder to trigger in the future climate under global warming, consistent with the results from convection-permitting regional climate simulations. Then, a multicolumn model that includes an array of single-column models aligned in the east–west direction and incorporates idealized cold pool interaction mechanisms is developed. The multicolumn model captures readily the cold pool–induced upscale growth feature in MCS genesis from initially scattered convection that is organized into a mesoscale cluster in a few hours. It also highlights the crucial role of lifting effects due to cold pool collision and spreading, subsidence effect, and gust front propagation speed in controlling the final size of mesoscale clusters and cold pool regions. This simple model should be useful for understanding fundamental mechanisms of MCS initiation and providing guidance for improving MCS simulations in GCMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Can ERA5 Be Used to Study Mesoscale Convective System Climatological Characteristics?

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) produce more than half of tropical rainfall and are central to the global hydrologic cycle. As the climate warms, environments favorable for MCSs may become more common; however, limited observational records hamper understanding of how MCSs respond to variations and changes in their environments. Here, we evaluate how well MCSs are represented in ERA5, a widely used global high‐resolution reanalysis product. Using PyFLEXTRKR, which jointly tracks top‐of‐atmosphere infrared brightness temperature and surface precipitation, we identified MCSs in ERA5 and compared them with those identified in satellite observations using the same detection algorithm. This comparison analysis spans 2007–2020 using hourly data at 0.25° horizontal resolution focusing over the tropics. ERA5 reproduces observed brightness‐temperature statistics and captures the geographic distribution and seasonal and diurnal cycles of MCS cold cloud shields. However, ERA5 precipitation exhibits an intensity bias—too much light rain and too little heavy rain—which shifts the rain‐rate distribution and reduces the frequency of MCSs relative to observations. Within MCSs, ERA5 precipitation exhibits the same pattern of bias, yielding a systematic underestimation of MCS precipitation intensity. Consistent with these biases, ERA5 underestimates the contribution of MCS to tropical rainfall by 25%–34% in key regions. Overall, ERA5 is suitable for studying MCS cold cloud‐shield climatology and evolution, but precipitation‐based MCS characteristics (including event‐level precipitation features and the geospatial distribution of MCS precipitation) should be interpreted with caution. These findings clarify which aspects of MCS behavior are robustly represented in ERA5 for climatological applications.

mesoscale convection↗

Impact of a New Cloud Microphysics Parameterization on the Simulations of Mesoscale Convective Systems in E3SM

Abstract Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are one of the most climatically significant forms of convection because of their large role in water and energy cycles. The mesoscale features associated with MCS are difficult to represent in climate models because the relevant dynamics and physics are absent or poorly represented with coarse model resolution (∼100 km). Using a regionally refined model (RRM) with 0.25° grid spacing embedded in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), we explore the impact of cloud microphysics parameterizations on the simulation of precipitation, particularly MCS precipitation over the contiguous United States. The Predicted Particle Properties (P3) cloud microphysics scheme has been modified and implemented into E3SM to overcome the limitations of the default Morrison and Gettelman (MG2) scheme in which rimed precipitating ice particles (graupel/hail) are absent and frozen particles are artificially partitioned into cloud ice and snow. We show that P3 improves the simulation of precipitation statistics including frequency distribution compared with MG2 with a limited effect on the diurnal cycle. P3 predicts higher hourly rain rates, resulting in 20% more MCSs and a higher total MCS precipitation (4.4%) compared to MG2, agreeing better with observations. The improvements with P3 mainly result from improved representations of ice microphysics, which not only produces higher rain rates through melting but also leads to a stronger large‐scale ascending motion by releasing more latent heating. This study suggests that improving microphysics parameterization is important for simulating MCS precipitation as future climate model resolutions continue to increase.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Environmental Conditions Affecting Global Mesoscale Convective System Occurrence

Abstract The ERA5 environments of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), tracked from satellite observations, are assessed over a 20-yr period. The use of a large set of MCS tracks allows us to robustly test the sensitivity of the results to factors such as region, latitude, and diurnal cycle. We aim to provide novel information on environments of observed MCSs for assessments of global atmospheric models and to improve their ability to simulate MCSs. Statistical analysis of all tracked MCSs is performed in two complementary ways. First, we investigate the environments when an MCS has occurred at different spatial scales before and after MCS formation. Several environmental variables are found to show marked changes before MCS initiation, particularly over land. The vertically integrated moisture flux convergence shows a robust signal across different regions and when considering MCS initiation diurnal cycle. We also found spatial scale dependence of the environments between 200 and 500 km, providing new evidence of a natural length scale for use with MCS parameterization. In the second analysis, the likelihood of MCS occurrence for given environmental conditions is evaluated, by considering all environments and determining the probability of being in an MCS core or shield region. These are compared to analogous non-MCS environments, allowing discrimination between conditions suitable for MCS and non-MCS occurrence. Three environmental variables are found to be useful predictors of MCS occurrence: total column water vapor, midlevel relative humidity, and total column moisture flux convergence. Such relations could be used as trigger conditions for the parameterization of MCSs, thereby strengthening the dependence of the MCS scheme on the environment. Significance Statement Large storm systems called mesoscale convective systems form across Earth. These are collections of thunderstorms, with associated high-level clouds that produce substantial, lighter rainfall and modulate Earth’s energy balance. They produce hazardous weather conditions, such as floods and high winds, and are responsible for a high percentage of rainfall in many regions globally. We investigate the environmental conditions under which they form, so that we can understand the spatial extent of the environment which is important for their formation, and also where and when the effects of these storms might be felt. The novel information generated here should help improve the representation of these storms in weather and climate models, improving the prediction of rainfall, thunderclouds, and high-level clouds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Ability of a regional-scale model to predict the genesis of intense mesoscale convective systems

The mesoscale part of a two-part evaluation of 30 forecasts by a mesoscale numerical weather prediction model (MASS 2.0) is presented. Unfiltered fields are combined into convective predictor fields, the loci of which are then related at two-hour intervals to the loci of strong mesoscale convective systems identifiable in national radar summary plots and GOES satellite imagery. Examples of model 'forecasts' of intense convective storm clusters, a severe squall line triggered along a dryline, orographically induced hailstorms, and sea breeze thunderstorms are provided.

Koch, S. E.↗

Impact of Global Warming on U.S. Summertime Mesoscale Convective Systems: A Simple Lagrangian Parcel Model Perspective

Abstract Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are the dominant rainfall producer over the United States during the warm season, causing natural disasters and severe weather every year. Global climate models have large uncertainty in projecting precipitation changes in the future climate. Here, a simple Lagrangian parcel model is used to investigate the impact of global warming on MCS initiation and growth. The single-column parcel model projects a mean precipitation decrease over the central United States and an increase to its east, in agreement with the CMIP5 model projection. It also highlights the crucial role of current climate mean-state model bias in exaggerating the change in future mean precipitation projection by 25%. As for convective population, the model captures the decreased occurrence frequency of weak to moderate convection and increased frequency of strong convection due to the increased CAPE and CIN, in agreement with convection-permitting regional simulations. Novel parameterizations of gust-front propagation speed and subsidence strength are developed as guided by cloud-resolving simulations. The multicolumn parcel model employing those parameterizations captures readily the cold pool–induced upscale growth feature. It simulates smaller mesoscale clusters over the central United States under global warming due to gust-front slowdown and subsidence strength enhancement, which are further attributed to land aridity–induced weakening of initial accumulated precipitation and strengthening of updraft speed, respectively. That said, mesoscale clusters could become bigger under more favorable conditions in future climate, including boundary layer moistening, convection lifetime lengthening, and cold pool mechanical-lifting enhancement, which require further investigations to improve mechanistic understanding of future MCS changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

GPM IMERG V07B and V06B: Evaluation Using Ground-Based Radar Observations and Application in Global Mesoscale Convective System Tracking

This study evaluates the latest Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG V07B) against its predecessor V06B, for studying mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). Both versions are compared using ground-based radar and rain gauge data from five meteorologically diverse regions: the contiguous United States (including eastern coastlines), Amazon rainforest, central Argentina mountains, equatorial Indian Ocean, and northern Australia across multiple temporal (0.5–6 hours) and spatial scales (0.1°–0.25°). An updated global MCS tracking dataset is developed by integrating satellite-observed infrared brightness temperature with IMERG V07B. Comparation of IMERG against radar observations reveals that IMERG demonstrates better performance in capturing the probability distribution and quantitative contributions of rainfall (from no-rain to intense-rain conditions) over tropical oceans than over land, with marked improvements in IMERG V07B for heavy-to-intense rain (> 10 mm h-1). Over land, systematic biases persist: IMERG tends to overestimate light-to-moderate rain (1–10 mm h-1) while underestimating heavy-to-intense rain. Additionally, aggregating IMERG to coarser resolutions (3-hourly or 0.25°) improves consistency with radar observations, outperforming the 1-hourly/0.1° resolution. The new IMERG V07B-based global MCS dataset exhibits consistent statistical characteristics with the V06B-based dataset, despite lower mean rain rates and reduced heavy precipitation contributions. These findings offer valuable insights for utilizing IMERG V07B in global precipitation studies, MCS characterization, and model evaluation.

Zhang, Sihan↗

Linking Flood Frequency With Mesoscale Convective Systems in the US

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) with larger rain areas and higher rainfall intensity than non-MCS events can produce severe flooding. Flooding occurrences associated with MCS and non-MCS rainfall in the US east of 110°W are examined by linking a high-resolution MCS data set and reported floods in the warm season (April-August) between 2007 and 2017. MCSs account for the majority of slow-rising and hybrid floods, while non-MCS rainfall explains about half of flash floods in July and August as individual thunderstorms occur frequently in the Rocky Mountains and Appalachian Mountains. The event-total rainfall area of MCSs is the dominant factor of flood occurrences: MCSs with greater rainfall areas tend to produce more floods. While not related to flood frequency, propagating MCSs tend to produce flash floods with longer durations. These established links can improve our confidence in interpreting flood risks and their future changes due to changes in MCS characteristics with warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Mesoscale Convective Systems Represented in High Resolution E3SMv2 and Impact of New Cloud and Convection Parameterizations

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) play an important role in modulating the global hydrological cycle, general circulation, and radiative energy budget. In this study, we evaluate MCS simulations in the second version of U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv2). E3SMv2 atmosphere model (EAMv2) is run at the uniform 0.25? horizontal resolution. We track MCSs consistently in the model and observations using the PyFLEXTRKR algorithm, which defines MCS based on both cloud-top brightness temperature (Tb) and surface precipitation. Results from using Tb only to define MCS, commonly used in previous studies, are also discussed. Furthermore, sensitivity experiments are performed to examine the impact of new cloud and convection parameterizations developed for EAMv3 on simulated MCSs. Our results show that EAMv2 simulated MCS precipitation is largely underestimated in the tropics and contiguous United States. This is mainly attributed to the underestimated precipitation intensity in EAMv2. In contrast, the simulated MCS frequency becomes more comparable to observations if MCSs are defined only based on cloud-top Tb. The Tb-based MCS tracking method, however, includes many cloud systems with very weak precipitation which conflicts with the MCS definition. This result illustrates the importance of accounting for precipitation in evaluating simulated MCSs. We also find that the new physics parameterizations help increase the relative contribution of convective precipitation to total precipitation in the tropics, but the simulated MCS properties are generally not improved. This suggests that simulating MCSs will remain a challenge for the next version of E3SM.

Zhang, Meng↗

Soil moisture gradients strengthen mesoscale convective systems by increasing wind shear

Mesoscale convective systems are a class of storm linked to extensive flooding and other destructive hazards in many regions globally. In West Africa, soil moisture impacts provide a valuable source of predictability for mature storm hazards, but little is known about mature storm sensitivity to soil moisture in other climatic regions. Here we use a storm track dataset, satellite observations and reanalysis fields to investigate the response of mature storms to soil moisture in seven global storm hotspots—West Africa, India, South America, South Africa, Australia and the United States Great Plains. We demonstrate that mesoscale soil moisture gradients (~500 km) can enhance storms by driving increased vertical wind shear conditions, a crucial ingredient for storm organization, through the strengthening of atmospheric temperature gradients. This is evidenced by a 10–30% increase in precipitation feature size and rainfall for the largest storms on days with favourable soil moisture gradients compared with unfavourable gradients. Global simulations confirm that soil moisture gradients influence wind shear. The results demonstrate the importance of soil moisture feedbacks for accurate forecasting of mesoscale convective systems and future projections of extreme events under climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Towards a Unified Setup to Simulate Mid‐Latitude and Tropical Mesoscale Convective Systems at Kilometer‐Scales

Abstract Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are the main source of precipitation in the tropics and parts of the mid‐latitudes and are responsible for high‐impact weather worldwide. Studies showed that deficiencies in simulating mid‐latitude MCSs in state‐of‐the‐art climate models can be alleviated by kilometer‐scale models. However, whether these models can also improve tropical MCSs and whether we can find model settings that perform well in both regions is understudied. We take advantage of high‐quality MCS observations collected over the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) facilities in the US Southern Great Plains (SGP) and the Amazon basin near Manaus (MAO) to evaluate a perturbed physics ensemble of simulated MCSs with 4 km horizontal grid spacing. A new model evaluation method is developed that enables to distinguish biases stemming from spatiotemporal displacements of MCSs from biases in their reflectivity and cloud shield. Amazon MCSs are similarly well simulated across these evaluation metrics than SGP MCSs despite the challenges anticipated from weaker large‐scale forcing in the tropics. Generally, SGP MCSs are more sensitive to the choice of model microphysics, while Amazon cases are more sensitive to the planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme. Although our tested model physics combinations had strengths and weaknesses, combinations that performed well for SGP simulations result in worse results in the Amazon basin and vice versa. However, we identified model settings that perform well at both locations, which include the Thompson and Morrison microphysics coupled with the Yonsei University (YSU) PBL scheme and the Thompson scheme coupled with the Mellor‐Yamada‐Janjic PBL scheme.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Quantifying Flood Frequency Associated with Clustered Mesoscale Convective Systems in the United States

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) that are clustered in time and space can have a broader impact on flooding because they have larger area coverage than that of individual MCSs. The goal of this study is to understand the flood likelihood associated with MCS clusters. To achieve this, floods in the Storm Events Database in April–August of 2007–17 are matched with clustered MCSs identified from a high-resolution MCS dataset and terrestrial conditions in a land surface dataset over the central-eastern United States. In this work, our analysis indicates that clustered MCSs preferentially occurring in April–June are more effective at producing floods, which also last longer due to the greater rainfall per area and wetter initial soil conditions and, hence, produce greater runoff per area than nonclustered MCSs. Similar increases of flood occurrence with cluster-total rainfall size and wetter soils are also observed for each MCS cluster, especially for the overlapping rainfall areas within each cluster. These areas receive rainfall from multiple MCSs that progressively wet the soils and are therefore associated with higher flood likelihood. This study underscores the importance to understand clustered MCSs to better understand flood risks and their future changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

An Overview of Mesoscale Convective Systems: Global Climatology, Satellite Observations, and Modeling Strategies

Deep convection is responsible for redistributing water as well as energy and providing vital water resources for many regions of the world. Cumulonimbus clouds aggregation into a single storm system develop mesoscale convective systems (MCS). MCSs have precipitation covering a horizontal region on the scale of 100?km or more. After more than the last seven decades, MCS has been gradually received wide attention in the scientific community as an important component of the Earth's hydrologic cycle and energy balance. MCSs differ from ordinary deep convection because of the mesoscale circulations consisting of a layer of air overturning on a scale much larger than those created by individual convective updrafts or downdrafts. Moreover, a key feature that separates MCS from ordinary deep convection is the significant portion of stratiform precipitation that results in the production and detrainment of a large number of ice particles from their organized convective cores and continues the mesoscale ascent that supports ice growth and aggregation as the crystals fall. This significant stratiform precipitation gives rise to top-heavy latent heating profiles that have substantial impacts on the upper-level global circulations, especially for those MCS that have a larger portion of stratiform rainfall. Top-heavy latent heating profiles are more frequent over the ocean than over the land. These unique features of MCS suggest that they are important for the hydrologic cycle, general circulation, and radiative balance of the climate system. In this chapter, we focus on the recent advances in the climatological perspective of MCS as well as the research tools used to better understand MCS after the advent of the satellite era. We will discuss both tropical and midlatitude MCS, the influence of modes of tropical climate variability on MCS, and the new insight from satellite observations on MCS interaction with the land surface.

Chakraborty, Sudip↗