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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Learning together: Towards foundation models for machine learning interatomic potentials with meta-learning

Abstract The development of machine learning models has led to an abundance of datasets containing quantum mechanical (QM) calculations for molecular and material systems. However, traditional training methods for machine learning models are unable to leverage the plethora of data available as they require that each dataset be generated using the same QM method. Taking machine learning interatomic potentials (MLIPs) as an example, we show that meta-learning techniques, a recent advancement from the machine learning community, can be used to fit multiple levels of QM theory in the same training process. Meta-learning changes the training procedure to learn a representation that can be easily re-trained to new tasks with small amounts of data. We then demonstrate that meta-learning enables simultaneously training to multiple large organic molecule datasets. As a proof of concept, we examine the performance of a MLIP refit to a small drug-like molecule and show that pre-training potentials to multiple levels of theory with meta-learning improves performance. This difference in performance can be seen both in the reduced error and in the improved smoothness of the potential energy surface produced. We therefore show that meta-learning can utilize existing datasets with inconsistent QM levels of theory to produce models that are better at specializing to new datasets. This opens new routes for creating pre-trained, foundation models for interatomic potentials.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2025

Meta-Learning Enhanced Physics-Informed Graph Attention Convolutional Network for Distribution Power System State Estimation

Promptly perceiving distribution system states is challenged by frequent topology changes and uncertain power injections. To address these issues, a Meta-learning enhanced physics-informed graph attention convolutional network (Meta-PIGACN) model is proposed to handle topological variability in distribution system state estimation (DSSE). Specifically, physics information is integrated into the graph convolutional network, enabling a physics-informed edge-weighting process that incorporates physical information to control the aggregation of neighboring nodes. Besides, the graph attention mechanism automatically adjusts the importance of different neighboring nodes, allowing the capture and preservation of inherent system features across varying topologies, thereby improving state estimation accuracy. Furthermore, meta-learning is proposed to acquire empirical knowledge across multiple topologies so that the model can rapidly adapt to new configurations through iterative gradient descent updates even in large-scale systems. In conclusion, the simulation results based on the 33/118/1746-node distribution systems show the high accuracy and efficiency of the proposed model.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

GraMeR: Gra ph Me ta R einforcement learning for multi-objective influence maximization

Influence maximization (IM) is a combinatorial problem of identifying a subset of seed nodes in a network (graph), which when activated, provide a maximal spread of influence in the network for a given diffusion model and a budget for seed set size. IM has numerous applications such as viral marketing, epidemic control, sensor placement and other network-related tasks. However, its practical uses are limited due to the computational complexity of current algorithms. Recently, deep reinforcement learning has been leveraged to solve IM in order to ease the computational burden. However, there are serious limitations in current approaches, including narrow IM formulation that only consider influence via spread and ignore self-activation, low scalability to large graphs, and lack of generalizability across graph families leading to a large running time for every test network. In this work, we address these limitations through a unique approach that involves: (1) Formulating a generic IM problem as a Markov decision process that handles both intrinsic and influence activations; (2)incorporating generalizability via meta-learning across graph families. There are previous works that combine deep reinforcement learning with graph neural network, but this work solves a more realistic IM problem and incorporates generalizability across graphs via meta reinforcement learning. Extensive experiments are carried out in various standard networks to validate performance of the proposed Graph Meta Reinforcement learning (GraMeR) framework. Finally, the results indicate that GraMeR is multiple orders faster and generic than conventional approaches when applied on small to medium scale graphs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

SIGHT: Stacked Integration of Geospatial Hierarchical Typologies for Inferring Building Characteristics

Building characteristics are often absent in building stock datasets, particularly in regions most vulnerable to climate change and requiring effective disaster management strategies. Traditional machine learning approaches, while widely used to predict building attributes, typically neglect the spatial context of the data, leading to less accurate and reliable outcomes. To address these challenges, this paper introduces a novel algorithm, the Stacked Integration of Geospatial Hierarchical Typologies. This algorithm adapts a meta-learning framework to incorporate geospatial context into the predictive modeling process. We demonstrate the utility of the algorithm through two primary use cases: building use type classification and building height prediction. The algorithm consistently achieved or exceeded a 0.94 macro average F1 score across five geographically distinct countries for building use type classification. For building height prediction, it accurately predicted heights with a root mean square error of 3.01 in a comprehensive study using roughly 3.6 million buildings in Japan. These results underscore the benefits of integrating spatial hierarchies into machine learning models, enhancing both predictive accuracy and reliability in geospatial modeling. This work introduces a new algorithm to address the pervasive data sparsity issue in existing building stock datasets.

Adams, Daniel [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000196950577)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Electrical Load Forecasting Over Multihop Smart Metering Networks With Federated Learning

Electric load forecasting is essential for power management and stability in smart grids. This is mainly achieved via advanced metering infrastructure, where smart meters (SMs) record household energy data. Traditional machine learning (ML) methods are often employed for load forecasting, but require data sharing, which raises data privacy concerns. Federated learning (FL) can address this issue by running distributed ML models at local SMs without data exchange. However, current FL-based approaches struggle to achieve efficient load forecasting due to imbalanced data distribution across heterogeneous SMs. Here, this article presents a novel personalized FL (PFL) method for high-quality load forecasting in metering networks. A meta-learning-based strategy is developed to address data heterogeneity at local SMs in the collaborative training of local load forecasting models. Moreover, to minimize the load forecasting delays in our PFL model, we study a new latency optimization problem based on optimal resource allocation at SMs. A theoretical convergence analysis is also conducted to provide insights into FL design for federated load forecasting. Extensive simulations from real-world datasets show that our method outperforms existing approaches regarding better load forecasting and reduced operational latency costs.

Rahman, Ratun [Univ. of Alabama, Huntsville, AL (U↗
DOE OSTI2024

Neuromorphic overparameterisation and few-shot learning in multilayer physical neural networks

Abstract Physical neuromorphic computing, exploiting the complex dynamics of physical systems, has seen rapid advancements in sophistication and performance. Physical reservoir computing, a subset of neuromorphic computing, faces limitations due to its reliance on single systems. This constrains output dimensionality and dynamic range, limiting performance to a narrow range of tasks. Here, we engineer a suite of nanomagnetic array physical reservoirs and interconnect them in parallel and series to create a multilayer neural network architecture. The output of one reservoir is recorded, scaled and virtually fed as input to the next reservoir. This networked approach increases output dimensionality, internal dynamics and computational performance. We demonstrate that a physical neuromorphic system can achieve an overparameterised state, facilitating meta-learning on small training sets and yielding strong performance across a wide range of tasks. Our approach’s efficacy is further demonstrated through few-shot learning, where the system rapidly adapts to new tasks.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Combining physics-based and data-driven models for quantitatively accurate plasma profile prediction that extrapolates well; with application to DIII-D, AUG, and ITER tokamaks

For design, scenario planning, and control, ITER and all other envisioned tokamaks rely on a variety of statistical and physics-based models to extrapolate to unseen regimes; most notably from low plasma current to high. A 'meta-learning' methodology for combining the accuracy of data-driven models with the generalizability of physics-based models is described and tested, yielding a 5–10 percent improvement in performance beyond either alone for the task of extrapolating time-dependent plasma profile prediction from low- to high- plasma current DIII-D tokamak discharges. Meanwhile, it is shown that both machine learning models extrapolated far-distribution and state-of-the-art 'physics-based' profile predictors fare worse than merely assuming plasma profiles do not change from their initial values. Finally, a variety of other mechanisms for helping data-driven models generalize—transfer learning, adding contextual information from physics simulators, and adding data from the ASDEX Upgrade tokamak—are attempted for similar extrapolation tasks but, in the methodology used in this paper, yield no significant improvement beyond simple data-driven models. Results are summarized in figures 15 and 16.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Reduced Erosion Augments Soil Carbon Storage Under Cover Crops

ABSTRACT Cover crops, a promising strategy to increase soil organic carbon (SOC) storage in croplands and mitigate climate change, have typically been shown to benefit soil carbon (C) storage from increased plant C inputs. However, input‐driven C benefits may be augmented by the reduction of C outputs induced by cover crops, a process that has been tested by individual studies but has not yet been synthesized. Here we quantified the impact of cover crops on organic C loss via soil erosion (SOC erosion) and revealed the geographical variability at the global scale. We analyzed the field data from 152 paired control and cover crop treatments from 57 published studies worldwide using meta‐analysis and machine learning. The meta‐analysis results showed that cover crops widely reduced SOC erosion by an average of 68% on an annual basis, while they increased SOC stock by 14% (0–15 cm). The absolute SOC erosion reduction ranged from 0 to 18.0 Mg C −1 ha −1 year −1 and showed no correlation with the SOC stock change that varied from −8.07 to 22.6 Mg C −1 ha −1 year −1 at 0–15 cm depth, indicating the latter more likely related to plant C inputs. The magnitude of SOC erosion reduction was dominantly determined by topographic slope. The global map generated by machine learning showed the relative effectiveness of SOC erosion reduction mainly occurred in temperate regions, including central Europe, central‐east China, and Southern South America. Our results highlight that cover crop‐induced erosion reduction can augment SOC stock to provide additive C benefits, especially in sloping and temperate croplands, for mitigating climate change.

Huang, Wenjuan [Department of Ecology, Evolution, ↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data driven investigation to understand the influence of total solids on biological biogas upgrading

In situ biogas upgrading achieves CO 2 conversion to CH 4 via hydrogenotrophic methanogenesis; however, gas-liquid mass transfer constraints limit the upgrading performance. Recognizing that optimization studies often underrepresent the effects of total solids (TS) and organic loading rate (OLR), this study undertook a holistic, statistics driven assessment of operating conditions for in situ H 2 assisted biogas upgrading, centering the analysis on TS and OLR. A dataset of 31 studies was compiled and comprised 99 observations. A rigorous analytical framework was employed, combining data standardization, fixed- and random-effects (REML) weighted regressions with cluster-robust errors, stratified analyses, and machine learning. Mixed-effects meta regression indicated that TS was the main factor explaining differences of methane fraction (CH 4 %) when considering the between studies heterogeneity. Focusing on a near-stoichiometric subset (H 2 /CO 2 ≈ 4:1), TS remained significant. Stratified results showed a stronger negative relationship between TS and CH 4 % in UASB reactors than in CSTRs, with a negative effect under mesophilic conditions and no significant effect under thermophilic conditions. A Random Forest model corroborated the statistical findings, consistently ranking H 2 /CO 2 ratio, OLR, TS, and hydrogen injection rate (HIR) as the most influential predictors. These findings delineate trends across increasing TS levels, particularly between 1% and 10%, and provide preliminary insights for TS above 15% in in situ biogas upgrading. They further provide insights for the influence of TS by reactor type and temperature, thereby advancing the evidence base for implementing biological CO 2 conversion to CH 4 in practice.

In situ biogas upgrading↗
DOE OSTI2026

Beyond microbial abundance: metadata integration enhances disease prediction in human microbiome studies

Multiple studies have highlighted the interaction of the human microbiome with physiological systems such as the gut, immune, liver, and skin, via key axes. Advances in sequencing technologies and high-performance computing have enabled the analysis of large-scale metagenomic data, facilitating the use of machine learning to predict disease likelihood from microbiome profiles. However, challenges such as compositionality, high dimensionality, sparsity, and limited sample sizes have hindered the development of actionable models. One strategy to improve these models is by incorporating key metadata from both the human host and sample collection/processing protocols. This remains challenging due to sparsity and inconsistency in metadata annotation and availability. In this paper, we introduce a machine learning-based pipeline for predicting human disease states by integrating host and protocol metadata with microbiome abundance profiles from 68 different studies, processed through a consistent pipeline. Our findings indicate that metadata can enhance machine learning predictions, particularly at higher taxonomic ranks like Kingdom and Phylum, though this effect diminishes at lower ranks. Our study leverages a large collection of microbiome datasets comprising 11,208 samples, therefore enhancing the robustness and statistical confidence of our findings. This work is a critical step toward utilizing microbiome and metadata for predicting diseases such as gastrointestinal infections, diabetes, cancer, and neurological disorders.

Mathematics and Computing↗
DOE OSTI2025

Space‐Time Causal Discovery in Earth System Science: A Local Stencil Learning Approach

Causal discovery tools enable scientists to infer meaningful relationships from observational data, spurring advances in fields as diverse as biology, economics, and climate science. Despite these successes, the application of causal discovery to space-time systems remains immensely challenging due to the high-dimensional nature of the data. For example, in climate sciences, modern observational temperature records over the past few decades regularly measure thousands of locations around the globe. To address these challenges, we introduce Causal Space-Time Stencil Learning (CaStLe), a novel meta-algorithm for discovering causal structures in complex space-time systems. CaStLe leverages regularities in local space-time dependencies to learn governing global dynamics. This local perspective eliminates spurious confounding and drastically reduces sample complexity, making space-time causal discovery practical and effective. For causal discovery, CaStLe flexibly accepts any appropriately adapted time series causal discovery algorithm to recover local causal structures. These advances enable causal discovery of geophysical phenomena that were previously unapproachable, including non-periodic, transient phenomena such as volcanic eruption plumes. Regularities in local space-time dependencies are transformed into informative spatial replicates, which actually improve CaStLe's performance when applied to ever-larger spatial grids. We successfully apply CaStLe to discover the atmospheric dynamics governing the climate response to the 1991 Mount Pinatubo volcanic eruption. We provide validation experiments to demonstrate the effectiveness of CaStLe over existing causal-discovery frameworks on a range of geophysics-inspired benchmarks while identifying the method's limitations and domains where its assumptions may not hold.

Nichol, J. Jake [Univ. of New Mexico, Albuquerque,↗
DOE OSTI2025

MP-ALOE: an r2SCAN dataset for universal machine learning interatomic potentials

We present MP-ALOE, a dataset of nearly 1 million DFT calculations using the accurate r2SCAN meta-generalized gradient approximation. Covering 89 elements, MP-ALOE was created using active learning and primarily consists of off-equilibrium structures. We benchmark a machine learning interatomic potential trained on MP-ALOE, and evaluate its performance on a series of benchmarks, including predicting the thermochemical properties of equilibrium structures; predicting forces of far-from-equilibrium structures; maintaining physical soundness under static extreme deformations; and molecular dynamic stability under extreme temperatures and pressures. MP-ALOE shows strong performance on all of these benchmarks and is made public for the broader community to utilize.

Kuner, Matthew C↗
DOE OSTI2025

HPC Digital Twins for Evaluating Scheduling Policies, Incentive Structures and their Impact on Power and Cooling

Schedulers are critical for optimal resource utilization in high-performance computing. Traditional methods to evaluate sched- ulers are limited to post-deployment analysis, or simulators, which do not model associated infrastructure. In this work, we present the first-of-its-kind integration of scheduling and digital twins in HPC. This enables what-if studies to understand the impact of parameter configurations and scheduling decisions on the physical assets, even before deployment, or regarching changes not easily realizable in production. We (1) provide the first digital twin framework extended with scheduling capabilities, (2) integrate various top-tier HPC systems given their publicly available datasets, (3) implement extensions to integrate external scheduling simulators. Finally, we show how to (4) implement and evaluate incentive structures, as- well-as (5) evaluate machine learning based scheduling, in such novel digital-twin based meta-framework to prototype scheduling. Our work enables what-if scenarios of HPC systems to evaluate sustainability, and the impact on the simulated system.

Maiterth, Matthias [ORNL] (ORCID:000000018698460X)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Uncertainty guided online ensemble for non-stationary data streams in fusion science

Machine Learning (ML) is poised to play a pivotal role in the development and operation of next-generation fusion devices. Fusion data shows non-stationary behavior with distribution drifts, resulted by both experimental evolution and machine wear-and-tear. ML models assume stationary distribution and fail to maintain performance when encountered with such non-stationary data streams. Online learning techniques have been leveraged in other domains, however it has been largely unexplored for fusion applications. In this paper, we investigate online learning for continuous adaptation to drifting data streams in the prediction of Toroidal Field (TF) coils deflection at the DIII-D fusion facility. We further address the short-term performance degradation inherent to standard online learning, which arises because ground truth is unavailable at prediction time. To mitigate this issue, we propose an uncertainty-guided online ensemble framework. The method leverages the Deep Gaussian Process Approximation (DGPA) for calibrated uncertainty estimation and uses these uncertainty measures to guide a meta-algorithm that aggregates predictions from learners trained over different historical horizons. Our results show that online learning reduces prediction error by 80% compared to a static model. The online ensemble and the proposed uncertainty-guided ensemble further reduce error by approximately 6%, and 10% respectively, relative to standard single-model online learning, while also providing calibrated uncertainty estimates to support operational decision-making.

AI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty based Online Ensemble on Non-Stationary Data for Fusion Science

Machine Learning (ML) is poised to play a pivotal role in the development and operation of next-generation fusion devices. Fusion data shows non-stationary behavior due to drifts in the data. The drifts can arise from both experimental evolution and machine wear-and-tear. ML models assume stationary distribution and fail to maintain performance when encountered with non-stationary data streams.Online learning can be used to continuously adapt the models with new data as it is acquired. However, traditional online learning can suffer from short-term performance degradation, as ground truth are not available before making the prediction. To address this challenge, we propose uncertainty aware ensemble approach for online learning. We use Deep Gaussian Process Approximation (DGPA) technique for calibrated uncertainty estimation and use the uncertainty values to guide a meta-algorithm that produces predictions based on ensemble of learners. Moreover, DGPA also provides uncertainty estimation along with the predictions for decision makers. This paper demonstrates that the proposed method outperforms traditional online learning approach, and a naive ensemble without uncertainty guidance by about 7% and 6%, respectively, on B-coil deflection prediction at DIII-D Fusion Facility.

Rajput, Kishansingh [Thomas Jefferson National Acc↗
DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty based Online Ensemble on Non-Stationary Data for Fusion Science

Machine Learning (ML) is poised to play a pivotal role in the development and operation of next-generation fusion devices. Fusion data shows non-stationary behavior due to drifts in the data. The drifts can arise from both experimental evolution and machine wear-and-tear. ML models assume stationary distribution and fail to maintain performance when encountered with non-stationary data streams.Online learning can be used to continuously adapt the models with new data as it is acquired. However, traditional online learning can suffer from short-term performance degradation, as ground truth are not available before making the prediction. To address this challenge, we propose uncertainty aware ensemble approach for online learning. We use Deep Gaussian Process Approximation (DGPA) technique for calibrated uncertainty estimation and use the uncertainty values to guide a meta-algorithm that produces predictions based on ensemble of learners. Moreover, DGPA also provides uncertainty estimation along with the predictions for decision makers. This paper demonstrates that the proposed method outperforms traditional online learning approach, and a naive ensemble without uncertainty guidance by about 7% and 6%, respectively, on B-coil deflection prediction at DIII-D Fusion Facility.

Rajput, Kishansingh [Thomas Jefferson National Acc↗