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Landscape fragmentation overturns classical metapopulation thinking

Habitat loss and isolation caused by landscape fragmentation represent a growing threat to global biodiversity. Existing theory suggests that the process will lead to a decline in metapopulation viability. However, since most metapopulation models are restricted to simple networks of discrete habitat patches, the effects of real landscape fragmentation, particularly in stochastic environments, are not well understood. To close this major gap in ecological theory, we developed a spatially explicit, individual-based model applicable to realistic landscape structures, bridging metapopulation ecology and landscape ecology. This model reproduced classical metapopulation dynamics under conventional model assumptions, but on fragmented landscapes, it uncovered general dynamics that are in stark contradiction to the prevailing views in the ecological and conservation literature. Notably, fragmentation can give rise to a series of dualities: a) positive and negative responses to environmental noise, b) relative slowdown and acceleration in density decline, and c) synchronization and desynchronization of local population dynamics. Furthermore, counter to common intuition, species that interact locally (“residents”) were often more resilient to fragmentation than long-ranging “migrants.” This set of findings signals a need to fundamentally reconsider our approach to ecosystem management in a noisy and fragmented world.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A phage tail–like bacteriocin suppresses competitors in metapopulations of pathogenic bacteria

Bacteria can repurpose their own bacteriophage viruses (phage) to kill competing bacteria. Phage-derived elements are frequently strain specific in their killing activity, although there is limited evidence that this specificity drives bacterial population dynamics. Here, in this study, we identified intact phage and their derived elements in a metapopulation of wild plant–associated Pseudomonas genomes. We discovered that the most abundant viral cluster encodes a phage remnant resembling a phage tail called a tailocin, which bacteria have co-opted to kill bacterial competitors. Each pathogenic Pseudomonas strain carries one of a few distinct tailocin variants that target the variable polysaccharides in the outer membrane of co-occurring pathogenic Pseudomonas strains. Analysis of herbarium samples from the past 170 years revealed that the same tailocin and bacterial receptor variants have persisted in Pseudomonas populations. These results suggest that tailocin genetic diversity can be mined to develop targeted “tailocin cocktails” for microbial control.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Measuring Metapopulation Characteristics of the Southeastern Beach Mouse on Kennedy Space Center using a Dynamic Habitat Occupancy Approach

The Cape Canaveral Barrier Island Complex (CCBIC) represents the largest (72 km) continuous coastal habitat supporting the core population of the threatened southeastern beach mouse (Peromyscus polionotus niveiventris) in Florida. Despite protection throughout the subspecies’ remaining range, storm activity during the past two decades has de-stabilized coastal dune and coastal strand habitat required for beach mouse survival. Our long-term goal is to provide information to the management process to ensure a sustainable population on the CCBIC in light of sea-level rise, extreme storm events, and continued land development supporting the multi-user spaceport.Because beach mice populations are affected by storms (hurricanes, tropical storms, nor’easters), it is important to understand the species-habitat relations during periods with and without storm impacts. Conventional wisdom is that coastal dune and coastal strand are the preferred habitats, but coastal scrub habitat may be important because it is less affected by storm impacts (e.g., overwash, escarpment, sand deposition, etc.) and thus may serve as a refugia. In addition, genetic studies have shown some evidence for reduced dispersal between regions on CCBIC (Kalkvik et al., 2012; Zimmerman et al., 2015). We compared site occupancy dynamics for coastal dune, coastal strand, and coastal scrub habitat over three quarters (seasons) and determined the pattern of spatial correlation in habitat occupancy dynamics for locations at a range of distances in coastal dune, coastal strand, and coastal scrub habitats along the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) coastline (Figures1 and 2). Although habitat occupancy is very useful for understanding species-habitat relationships,in its simplest form it ignores differences in abundance between sites. Because information on abundance may inform management efforts and provide knowledge regarding status of the population, we tested measuring abundance state based on the number of detections in tracking tubes. Small mammal populations often fluctuate in a cyclic manner over time. These fluctuations make populations more susceptible to extinction and make trend detection more difficult. Efficient methods of measuring abundance across time and space are needed for monitoring trends.The purpose of this project was to:1.Estimate southeastern beach mouse habitat occupancy parameters in coastal dune, coastal strand, and coastal scrub habitats using a combination of tracking tubes and traps; 2.Model the spatial relationships of the effect of habitat (coastal dune, coastal strand, and coastal scrub) on parameters as a function of distance; and 3.Compare the reliability and efficiency of our survey methods and evaluate the potential to develop an abundance index.

Eric Douglas Stolen↗

Population Viability Analysis (PVA) as a Platform for Predicting Outcomes of Management Options for the Florida Scrub-Jay in Brevard County

The Florida scrub-jay (FSJ) is a species in decline because of extinction debt caused by habitat fragmentation and degradation. Understanding and managing the species and its habitats is challenging due to the complex interactions among the social system, a dynamic mosaic of scrub habitat, and active management. To provide insights into the possible fates of the FSJ populations of mainland, cape, and island sections of Brevard County, we modeled the population dynamics using the Vortex population viability analysis (PVA) software. Vortex is an individual-based simulation that allowed us to include such factors as demographic rates dependent on habitat state, impact of helpers on breeding success, and helper to breeder transition probabilities responding to availability of nearby vacant optimal habitat and vacancies due to the death of breeders. Detailed modeling of the FSJ was possible only because a lot of data about the species and its habitats have been gathered over decades of intensive research. We followed a phased approach to constructing population models that incorporated the best available science and data to address a variety of conservation actions. The first phase focused on constructing a model that incorporates sociobiology and source-sink habitat dynamics. This model allowed us to address some of the most important questions about population size and habitat quality. Once the model framework was in place, we considered the real landscapes and actual local populations, rather than just generic representations of typical FSJ dynamics. After examining the viability of the metapopulations under current conditions, we explored the likely consequences of various management actions that might slow or reverse population declines.

Population Viability Analysis↗