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Measuring Metapopulation Characteristics of the Southeastern Beach Mouse on Kennedy Space Center using a Dynamic Habitat Occupancy Approach

The Cape Canaveral Barrier Island Complex (CCBIC) represents the largest (72 km) continuous coastal habitat supporting the core population of the threatened southeastern beach mouse (Peromyscus polionotus niveiventris) in Florida. Despite protection throughout the subspecies’ remaining range, storm activity during the past two decades has de-stabilized coastal dune and coastal strand habitat required for beach mouse survival. Our long-term goal is to provide information to the management process to ensure a sustainable population on the CCBIC in light of sea-level rise, extreme storm events, and continued land development supporting the multi-user spaceport.Because beach mice populations are affected by storms (hurricanes, tropical storms, nor’easters), it is important to understand the species-habitat relations during periods with and without storm impacts. Conventional wisdom is that coastal dune and coastal strand are the preferred habitats, but coastal scrub habitat may be important because it is less affected by storm impacts (e.g., overwash, escarpment, sand deposition, etc.) and thus may serve as a refugia. In addition, genetic studies have shown some evidence for reduced dispersal between regions on CCBIC (Kalkvik et al., 2012; Zimmerman et al., 2015). We compared site occupancy dynamics for coastal dune, coastal strand, and coastal scrub habitat over three quarters (seasons) and determined the pattern of spatial correlation in habitat occupancy dynamics for locations at a range of distances in coastal dune, coastal strand, and coastal scrub habitats along the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) coastline (Figures1 and 2). Although habitat occupancy is very useful for understanding species-habitat relationships,in its simplest form it ignores differences in abundance between sites. Because information on abundance may inform management efforts and provide knowledge regarding status of the population, we tested measuring abundance state based on the number of detections in tracking tubes. Small mammal populations often fluctuate in a cyclic manner over time. These fluctuations make populations more susceptible to extinction and make trend detection more difficult. Efficient methods of measuring abundance across time and space are needed for monitoring trends.The purpose of this project was to:1.Estimate southeastern beach mouse habitat occupancy parameters in coastal dune, coastal strand, and coastal scrub habitats using a combination of tracking tubes and traps; 2.Model the spatial relationships of the effect of habitat (coastal dune, coastal strand, and coastal scrub) on parameters as a function of distance; and 3.Compare the reliability and efficiency of our survey methods and evaluate the potential to develop an abundance index.

Eric Douglas Stolen↗

Population Viability Analysis (PVA) as a Platform for Predicting Outcomes of Management Options for the Florida Scrub-Jay in Brevard County

The Florida scrub-jay (FSJ) is a species in decline because of extinction debt caused by habitat fragmentation and degradation. Understanding and managing the species and its habitats is challenging due to the complex interactions among the social system, a dynamic mosaic of scrub habitat, and active management. To provide insights into the possible fates of the FSJ populations of mainland, cape, and island sections of Brevard County, we modeled the population dynamics using the Vortex population viability analysis (PVA) software. Vortex is an individual-based simulation that allowed us to include such factors as demographic rates dependent on habitat state, impact of helpers on breeding success, and helper to breeder transition probabilities responding to availability of nearby vacant optimal habitat and vacancies due to the death of breeders. Detailed modeling of the FSJ was possible only because a lot of data about the species and its habitats have been gathered over decades of intensive research. We followed a phased approach to constructing population models that incorporated the best available science and data to address a variety of conservation actions. The first phase focused on constructing a model that incorporates sociobiology and source-sink habitat dynamics. This model allowed us to address some of the most important questions about population size and habitat quality. Once the model framework was in place, we considered the real landscapes and actual local populations, rather than just generic representations of typical FSJ dynamics. After examining the viability of the metapopulations under current conditions, we explored the likely consequences of various management actions that might slow or reverse population declines.

Population Viability Analysis↗